Houston Astros off-season thread

[tx 3 putt 76870]

surly thread ….

[UTexasFight 9428]

57 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

ill be hitting the team shop during the minute maid classic 

Another plug for the MLBPAA. $25 membership gets you a lot of discounts, including 1/2 off MLB.tv ($75 value) but also opens up a 25% discount code to MLBShop.com (jerseys included).

[tx 3 putt 76870]

Morning updates from Joe Espada:

-- Alvarez looked good in OF drills, will start playing earlier than he had in past springs. 

-- On Peña: "I want Jeremy coming to the ballpark knowing where he's going to hit.

-- Verlander played catch yesterday and feels good.

[Guadaloopy 10960]

11 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

Morning updates from Joe Espada:

-- On Peña: "I want Jeremy coming to the ballpark knowing where he's going to hit.

As long as it's no higher than 7th.

 

Let that flash in the pan 2-hole experiment stay dead. 

[UTexasFight 9428]

Altuve

Bregman

Alvarez

Tucker

Abreu

Diaz

McCormick

Pena

Meyers/Dubon

 

is that the surly approved lineup? 

 

Edited February 20 by UTexasFight

[kevwun 15764]

 Yeah with 5-7 subject to change based on how they're hitting after a couple of months.  Also if someone is outhitting Bregman who would be a better fit 2nd, that's also fine.  It doesn't really matter if it pisses him off.

Edited February 20 by kevwun

[Scraps 13560]

Diaz and Abreu should be flipped but prob won't be

[tx 3 putt 76870]

I’d swap pena and chas, but good either way

that line up fucks 

[UTexasFight 9428]

Can you imagine this thread if Altuve sits on Sunday against the Yankees and Dubon leads off?

 

[tx 3 putt 76870]

1 minute ago, UTexasFight said:

Can you imagine this thread if Altuve sits on Sunday against the Yankees and Dubon leads off?

 

ill be a very religious man before game #2, all the prayers for a line up change 🙏🙏🙏

 

Edited February 20 by tx 3 putt

[kevwun 15764]

4 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

I’d swap pena and chas, but good either way

that line up fucks 

I'd be more tempted to hit him 9th than move him up.  The fewer times he comes up with runners on, the better.

Edited February 20 by kevwun

[UTexasFight 9428]

After what we get in seemingly every spring training, my only prayer is that all 9/10 of those guys are healthy for game 1

[tx 3 putt 76870]

1 minute ago, kevwun said:

I'd be more tempted to hit him 9th than move him up. 

im a big believer in the #9 guy being a 2nd leadoff hitter to get on base for altuve 

hit chas #9

[Hank Chinaski 6314]

28 minutes ago, UTexasFight said:

Altuve

Bregman

Alvarez

Tucker

Abreu

Diaz

McCormick

Pena

Meyers/Dubon

 

is that the surly approved lineup? 

 

Yordan 2nd and Bregman 3rd and we’re set.

[tx 3 putt 76870]

It’s sounding like multiple astros worked with the team nutritionist staff to clean up their diets …

 

 

[hornmpa96 2618]

2 hours ago, Hank Chinaski said:

Yordan 2nd and Bregman 3rd and we’re set.

Are we hitting Tucker behind Bregman in that order to split-up the left-handed hitters or is it optimal for Bregman to hit before Tucker without that consideration?

[tx 3 putt 76870]

[Scraps 13560]

so dumb...its BP.

Same with everyone jerkin off to Ohtani hitting a homer in 1st BP

:eyeroll:

[Dutchrudder 11133]

6 minutes ago, Scraps said:

so dumb...its BP.

Same with everyone jerkin off to Ohtani hitting a homer in 1st BP

:eyeroll:

I think Ohtani joining the Dodgers has caused him to reach his final form of becoming Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift combined into one person for the MLB. We will hear about every little thing he does, they want to milk that cow for all it's worth. I didn't think the "headlines" would get to be this stupid though: "Ohtani homers in his first live BP with Dodgers" 

It would be news if he didn't and lacked the power to hit it out of the park, but I doubt he would be at practice if he were that weak. 

[Hank Chinaski 6314]

34 minutes ago, hornmpa96 said:

Are we hitting Tucker behind Bregman in that order to split-up the left-handed hitters or is it optimal for Bregman to hit before Tucker without that consideration?

Statistically it is best to have your best hitter at #2.

it doesn’t make that much of a difference if Yordan hits 3 instead of 2 - maybe the difference of a run or two over an entire season. But I’m of the opinion that there’s no reason not to maximize your odds on things like this.

[formermav43 4606]

40 minutes ago, hornmpa96 said:

Are we hitting Tucker behind Bregman in that order to split-up the left-handed hitters or is it optimal for Bregman to hit before Tucker without that consideration?

It’s optimal to have your best hitters at 1, 2, and 4 by The Book. 2 should be your best overall hitter (Alvarez) and 4 should be a big power bat (Tucker>Bregman). 3 should be filled in after those guys ideally.

[Snake Diggity 4619]

9 minutes ago, formermav43 said:

It’s optimal to have your best hitters at 1, 2, and 4 by The Book. 2 should be your best overall hitter (Alvarez) and 4 should be a big power bat (Tucker>Bregman). 3 should be filled in after those guys ideally.

By the book the lineup would be:

Altuve 

Alvarez

Bregman

Tucker

Diaz

Abreu

McCormick

Pena

Meyers

But due to handedness matching, manager hunches, egos, and rest days, we’ll never see that lineup.  Espada made a comment today that could be interpreted as expecting Pena to be back in the 2 hole which would be stupid af.

 

Edited February 20 by Snake Diggity

[formermav43 4606]

Just now, Snake Diggity said:

By the book the lineup would be:

Altuve 

Alvarez

Bregman

Tucker

Diaz

Abreu

McCormick

Pena

Meyers

But due to handedness matching, egos, and rest days, we’ll never see that lineup.  Espada made a comment today that could be interpreted as expecting Pena to be back in the 2 hole which would be stupid af.

 

I’m going to be optimistic and believe for now that it’s because he’s hitting 9th all the time that he’ll always know.

[tx 3 putt 76870]

7 hours ago, Sleepygrad said:

no thanks, get off my lawn

[WBT 20561]

2 hours ago, Snake Diggity said:

By the book the lineup would be:

Altuve 

Alvarez

Bregman

Tucker

Diaz

Abreu

McCormick

Pena

Meyers

But due to handedness matching, manager hunches, egos, and rest days, we’ll never see that lineup.  Espada made a comment today that could be interpreted as expecting Pena to be back in the 2 hole which would be stupid af.

 

Chas ahead of Abreu

Edited February 21 by WBT

[HtownHorn 14663]

3 hours ago, Hank Chinaski said:

Statistically it is best to have your best hitter at #2.

it doesn’t make that much of a difference if Yordan hits 3 instead of 2 - maybe the difference of a run or two over an entire season. But I’m of the opinion that there’s no reason not to maximize your odds on things like this.

I'd lead-off Yordan and bat Altuve 2nd. Yordan gets on base over 40% of the time, but I agree batting him 2nd would better than 3rd. Another beneft would potentially be less TOOTBLAN's from Altuve with Yordan in front of him on the bases.

Edited February 21 by HtownHorn

[Snake Diggity 4619]

14 minutes ago, WBT said:

Chas ahead of Abreu

It is extremely close but based on projections Abreu would likely be the better run producer even if his ops were a few points lower, due to his contact profile.  But it’s close enough not to matter.  Really aside from getting Alvarez and Tucker as many appearances as possible and getting Meyers and Pena as few as possible, it’s pretty meaningless.  Altuve, Bregman, Diaz, McCormick, and Abreu are all likely to be very close in overall offensive value.

[WBT 20561]

8 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

It is extremely close but based on projections Abreu would likely be the better run producer even if his ops were a few points lower, due to his contact profile.  But it’s close enough not to matter.  Really aside from getting Alvarez and Tucker as many appearances as possible and getting Meyers and Pena as few as possible, it’s pretty meaningless.  Altuve, Bregman, Diaz, McCormick, and Abreu are all likely to be very close in overall offensive value.

Yeah batting order doesn't matter much and is hard to screw up.  Unless you decide you have to bat Pena or Dubon leadoff but surely no one would be that stupid.

Spoiler

Looked it up and Dubon had 293 PA at leadoff last year with a smooth .621 OPS.  Jesus wept.

 

Edited February 21 by WBT

[WBT 20561]

5 minutes ago, WBT said:

Yeah batting order doesn't matter much and is hard to screw up.  Unless you decide you have to bat Pena or Dubon leadoff but surely no one would be that stupid.

  Reveal hidden contents

Looked it up and Dubon had 293 PA at leadoff last year with a smooth .621 OPS.  Jesus wept.

 

*Pena 2nd or Dubon leadoff

[Dutchrudder 11133]

34 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

It is extremely close but based on projections Abreu would likely be the better run producer even if his ops were a few points lower, due to his contact profile.  But it’s close enough not to matter.  Really aside from getting Alvarez and Tucker as many appearances as possible and getting Meyers and Pena as few as possible, it’s pretty meaningless.  Altuve, Bregman, Diaz, McCormick, and Abreu are all likely to be very close in overall offensive value.

Abreu is now 37, Chas is 29, and Chas had better numbers across the board. Abreu will likely regress more with age, while Chas is in his prime, and he should be better now that he doesn't have a manager actively undermining him. Either way is probably OK, but the order will need to be updated when we see Chas put up All-star numbers in the first half of the season. If he can maintain his pace from last year, he would be on track for a 30/30 season and we will see fans in the stands celebrating by throwing meatloafs on the field after every homer!

[Wulaw Horn 19067]

6 hours ago, Snake Diggity said:

By the book the lineup would be:

Altuve 

Alvarez

Bregman

Tucker

Diaz

Abreu

McCormick

Pena

Meyers

But due to handedness matching, manager hunches, egos, and rest days, we’ll never see that lineup.  Espada made a comment today that could be interpreted as expecting Pena to be back in the 2 hole which would be stupid af.

 

That’s almost a perfect saber lineup. Chad should hit before Abreu because he’s likely a slightly better hitter, but yeah thats almost perfect and maybe Abreu is actually a better hitter than Chas- but I doubt it. 

[Wulaw Horn 19067]

3 hours ago, Snake Diggity said:

It is extremely close but based on projections Abreu would likely be the better run producer even if his ops were a few points lower, due to his contact profile.  But it’s close enough not to matter.  Really aside from getting Alvarez and Tucker as many appearances as possible and getting Meyers and Pena as few as possible, it’s pretty meaningless.  Altuve, Bregman, Diaz, McCormick, and Abreu are all likely to be very close in overall offensive value.

I think it’s likely Diaz, Altuve, Bregman, McCormick and Abreu in that order, but I’m more likely to be wrong than right.  Those guys are all close enough that to get that right 1-5 is like hitting a 3 team parley. 

[Hank Chinaski 6314]

12 hours ago, HtownHorn said:

I'd lead-off Yordan and bat Altuve 2nd. Yordan gets on base over 40% of the time, but I agree batting him 2nd would better than 3rd. Another beneft would potentially be less TOOTBLAN's from Altuve with Yordan in front of him on the bases.

Getting Yordan more PAs than anyone else on the team makes sense to me.

[Snake Diggity 4619]

11 hours ago, Dutchrudder said:

Abreu is now 37, Chas is 29, and Chas had better numbers across the board. Abreu will likely regress more with age, while Chas is in his prime, and he should be better now that he doesn't have a manager actively undermining him. Either way is probably OK, but the order will need to be updated when we see Chas put up All-star numbers in the first half of the season. If he can maintain his pace from last year, he would be on track for a 30/30 season and we will see fans in the stands celebrating by throwing meatloafs on the field after every homer!

I hope I am wrong, but I think 2023 was McCormick’s peak.  I think he will still be a good player, just not the absolute star he was last season; the fact that he only got 457 pa last year despite not ever being seriously injured is sad.  But if McCormick ever steals 30 bases in a season I will be utterly shocked.  

I also think Abreu has one last productive gasp in him; he showed last year that his injuries and the change in teams affected him pretty dramatically.  Once he settled in and got healthy, he was pretty badass again.

[TejasPedro 1857]

On 2/19/2024 at 11:30 AM, Storm the Field said:

JP re-tooled his batting stance. 

 

So glad to see him lose that slappy style swing, big ass boy swinging like a Punch and Judy hitter, that was so cringe, I’m sure they wanted to fix it before, but no one wanted to say anything because of his rookie season and all that came with it. 

[tx 3 putt 76870]

22 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

I hope I am wrong, but I think 2023 was McCormick’s peak.  I think he will still be a good player, just not the absolute star he was last season; the fact that he only got 457 pa last year despite not ever being seriously injured is sad.  But if McCormick ever steals 30 bases in a season I will be utterly shocked.  

I also think Abreu has one last productive gasp in him; he showed last year that his injuries and the change in teams affected him pretty dramatically.  Once he settled in and got healthy, he was pretty badass again.

I think chas maintains or takes a small step forward. He just needs to make noise in the bottom 1/3 of the line up, extend ar bats. He’s a great piece / fit to the over all picture. 

[Snake Diggity 4619]

5 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

I think chas maintains or takes a small step forward. He just needs to make noise in the bottom 1/3 of the line up, extend ar bats. He’s a great piece / fit to the over all picture. 

Last year he was as good as peak Springer on a pa/pa basis.  I just have a hard time seeing him keep that pace as he plays LF everyday, which reduces his defensive value, rests him less, and puts him in less favorable matchups.  That said, he’ll totally live up to the task of making noise in the bottom of the lineup and I agree he’s a great piece in the overall picture.  I just think he’s closer in value to Josh Reddick than George Springer.

Edited February 21 by Snake Diggity

[huge 3793]

1 hour ago, Snake Diggity said:

Last year he was as good as peak Springer on a pa/pa basis.

What am I missing here?

[Dondrysdale1 363]

19 minutes ago, huge said:

What am I missing here?

Trying to say if Chaz had the same number of plate appearances as peak Springer he was as good or if not better.

[Scraps 13560]

no thanks, get off my lawn

How bout this one Pops...lol

[Sleepygrad 1029]

[huge 3793]

5 minutes ago, Dondrysdale1 said:

Trying to say if Chaz had the same number of plate appearances as peak Springer he was as good or if not better.

If chas ever has .974 OPS in 550+ PA I will eat my shoe.

[Dondrysdale1 363]

8 minutes ago, huge said:

If chas ever has .974 OPS in 550+ PA I will eat my shoe.

It’s what he was trying to say not me. McCormick has done a great job maximizing his talent but I def don’t see him on even grounds as a healthy George at the plate.

[Snake Diggity 4619]

4 minutes ago, Dondrysdale1 said:

It’s what he was trying to say not me. McCormick has done a great job maximizing his talent but I def don’t see him on even grounds as a healthy George at the plate.

 

13 minutes ago, huge said:

If chas ever has .974 OPS in 550+ PA I will eat my shoe.

 

40 minutes ago, huge said:

What am I missing here?

Maybe peak Springer is a bit much.  But McCormick posted a wRC+ of 133 last season which is slightly higher than Springer’s career mark.  If McCormick had been given 620 pa and performed at the same pace, he’d have put up 5.2 fwar, which is better than any season Springer had outside of 2019.

[tx 3 putt 76870]

Compare - on base %, rbi’s, runs, and batting avg, hr’s 

[formermav43 4606]

Dusty Baker has entered the chat.

[UTexasFight 9428]

Peak springer is one thing to compare to but I want no part of current Springer.

dude has fallen hard

 

hopefully he can stay healthy and find it again. 

[kevwun 15764]

Big swingers who swing and miss a lot do not age well once they start to lose bat speed.

[tx 3 putt 76870]

10 minutes ago, UTexasFight said:

Peak springer is one thing to compare to but I want no part of current Springer.

dude has fallen hard

 

hopefully he can stay healthy and find it again. 

all of this. One of my fave astros but a part of his success was being in this line up and locker room. They’re talking about using him more as a dh and even more rest days 

[Snake Diggity 4619]

Springer will put up 5-7 war total over the next 3 seasons and be worth a little less than he’s paid; given he put up a really good year in 2022, overall his contract has been pretty fair value.  Springer had 20 SB last season; I don’t think his decline will be so much losing ability rather than he will struggle with nagging injuries that keep him from playing at peak level.