2023-24 Houston Rockets Thread - Climbing out of the Gutter?

[Fud 9557]

48 minutes ago, Slacks said:

Dalton Knecht is 6"6", athletic, and can score. If I'm Stone and Udoka, I interview him to see how much he wants to become an elite defender. He was a late bloomer in terms of size, so I'm guessing he worked on scoring more than defending.

I think Knecht will be a better NBA player than Shepard and I would draft Knecht at 3 if I can't trade back.

He’s three years older than Sheppard, and would be a sub par defender as a wing 

[Slacks 6865]

12 minutes ago, LCHorn said:

You want to add another 2 guard to split developmental minutes with Green, or are you just totally out on him?

Knecht can play 3. A year behind Dillon Brooks won't hurt. 

The future of Amen, Jalen, Dalton, Jabari, Alperen, Cam, Tari does not suck. 

If you want a shooter that isn't 6'1 and doesn't take the ball out of Amen's hands as your facilitator, Knecht is the play.

 

Eta: I'm not convinced Jalen will be consistent, so I'm ok with having his replacement ready to go.

Edited June 8 by Slacks

[Slacks 6865]

11 minutes ago, Fud said:

He’s three years older than Sheppard, and would be a sub par defender as a wing 

I don't care about him being 23. Late growth spurt means he is less likely to fall off at 30.

Where is Shepard going to play and who is he going to defend? He's going to get moused.

Now, as I said, if Knecht doesn't want to be a better defender than Jalen, then no. 

Edited June 8 by Slacks

[LCHorn 2632]

Shepard is going to be a 3 and D point.  Green, Amen, and Sengun are going to be the main distributors.  
 

 

[Fud 9557]

24 minutes ago, Slacks said:

I don't care about him being 23. Late growth spurt means he is less likely to fall off at 30.

Where is Shepard going to play and who is he going to defend? He's going to get moused.

Now, as I said, if Knecht doesn't want to be a better defender than Jalen, then no. 

He’ll defend point in a similar fashion to FVV, while logging a lot of stocks 

On offense, he’ll play a similar role to White, and he potentially could be one of the best shooters in the league 

 

[Fud 9557]

I don’t think knecht is under consideration at #3. Maybe if Houston trades down with Memphis 

[Slacks 6865]

3 hours ago, Fud said:

He’ll defend point in a similar fashion to FVV, while logging a lot of stocks 

On offense, he’ll play a similar role to White, and he potentially could be one of the best shooters in the league 

 

He's smaller in stature than FVV (who also isn't great at defending PG. But hustles, so I get where you're going)...  And Thompson is probably the PG of the future.

I didn't see Reed play enough to put him out there at PG as a starter.

He will get switched to death.

I saw Knecht play. Knecht is an NBA player.

3 hours ago, Fud said:

I don’t think knecht is under consideration at #3. Maybe if Houston trades down with Memphis 

Forget the draft spot. Knecht is the better NBA prospect.

[LCHorn 2632]

17 minutes ago, Slacks said:

And Thompson is probably the PG of the future.

I don’t think Thompson is ever going to be a true point guard unless you think Ben Simmons was at one point viable.  More likely he’s Scottie Pippen (best case)

[Fud 9557]

2 hours ago, Slacks said:

6 hours ago, Fud said:

 

He's smaller in stature than FVV

He’s got more length than FVV

“He’ll get switched to death”

What do you think teams will do to Knecht? 

[Fud 9557]

The Rockets beat writer mocks Clingan at #3

 

[billfromlaketravis 11528]

5 hours ago, Fud said:

The Rockets beat writer mocks Clingan at #3

 

The Ringer NBA Draft mocked Clingan as the first pick. I just don’t see it. 

[Fud 9557]

Just now, billfromlaketravis said:

The Ringer NBA Draft mocked Clingan as the first pick. I just don’t see it. 

His role as something between Walker Kessler and Rudy Gobert is probably the highest floor in this draft. If you just want a bankable player, then he could make sense 

[LCHorn 2632]

5 hours ago, Fud said:

The Rockets beat writer mocks Clingan at #3

 

Kelly Iko of The Athletic keeps beating that same drum, too.  I’m typically skeptical of beat writers in general, but Iko has made the point that the Rockets under Stone really like length and he thinks that’s just integral to their draft strategy.  

[Fud 9557]

Just now, LCHorn said:

Kelly Iko of The Athletic keeps beating that same drum, too.  I’m typically skeptical of beat writers in general, but Iko has made the point that the Rockets under Stone really like length and he thinks that’s just integral to their draft strategy.  

I hate the fit with Sengun, unless you play on eventually trading one of them 

[LCHorn 2632]

Just now, Fud said:

I hate the fit with Sengun, unless you play on eventually trading one of them 

Oh I do, too.  Clutch on Clutchfans also seems to prefer Lurch and if he doesn’t pair well with Sengun then he’d trade the latter.

I think Sengun is the only (drafted) Rocket that has a floor as a starter on a good team and I’m not eager to look for upgrades there.

[BigOrange1 6471]

13 minutes ago, Fud said:

His role as something between Walker Kessler and Rudy Gobert is probably the highest floor in this draft. If you just want a bankable player, then he could make sense 

that's how i see him too.  and he has a skillset that no one on the team currently has.  i'm also fine with bringing him along slowly at 15-20 minutes/night for a year or two and just seeing what happens between he and Sengun.

i've become more and more OK with Reed Sheppard as well.  I also like Castle, but think I prefer Sheppard on this team as I think Castle would/will have some of the same offensive issues that Amen Thompson has.

[Fud 9557]

Just now, BigOrange1 said:

that's how i see him too.  and he has a skillset that no one on the team currently has.  i'm also fine with bringing him along slowly at 15-20 minutes/night for a year or two and just seeing what happens between he and Sengun.

i've become more and more OK with Reed Sheppard as well.  I also like Castle, but think I prefer Sheppard on this team as I think Castle would/will have some of the same offensive issues that Amen Thompson has.

To be clear, my post was justifying him going #1 overall in general in this class, not to Houston at #3

I don't love the Clingan and Sengun pairing. You need to be confident that Sengun can become a spacer from three and that Clingan is just too good/safe to pass on, or you need to feel that you can't win big with Sengun and are looking to trade him for a star (like the Sabonis trade), and view Clingan as his eventual replacement

I'm usually "when in doubt, take a wing" since when they don't hit, they're at least holding their trade value better than bigs or guards that don't hit, and there should be a wide variety of flavors of wings at #3, although all of them have some sort of major flaw for picking at that spot. The swing for upside pick there might be Holland. Similar to Amen, if he learns to shoot, he might have all-NBA potential. Castle is in the same boat, although as a guard.

[HtownHorn 14786]

The only regular rotation players that were better than Sengun defensively last year was Thompson and Eason, but Tari played 22 games. Smith was also good, so the wing defense can be really good to help protect Sengun. The guards were not very good, with Brooks being a near sieve. The Rockets need shooting more than anything else in this draft. They don't need a guy that has a limited offensive game and tested as one of the worst bigs at the combine. 

[billfromlaketravis 11528]

1 hour ago, HtownHorn said:

The only regular rotation players that were better than Sengun defensively last year was Thompson and Eason, but Tari played 22 games. Smith was also good, so the wing defense can be really good to help protect Sengun. The guards were not very good, with Brooks being a near sieve. The Rockets need shooting more than anything else in this draft. They don't need a guy that has a limited offensive game and tested as one of the worst bigs at the combine. 

Is Tari coming back 100%? That metal plate in his leg stuff Mack Brown scares me to death. 
 

My preferences are probably unrealistic. 1) Trade the 2024 pick for an unprotected pick in 2025. I think the Bulls are just dumb enough to do it. It’s a risk but 2025 should be a great draft. 2) Package the pick for a bona fide star in a sign and trade 3) Trade back, pick up a conditional pick, and draft Sheppard. The Celtics are on the verge of winning another championship because they shoot 3 better than any other team in the league. 

[BigOrange1 6471]

6 hours ago, Fud said:

I'm usually "when in doubt, take a wing" since when they don't hit, they're at least holding their trade value better than bigs or guards that don't hit, and there should be a wide variety of flavors of wings at #3, although all of them have some sort of major flaw for picking at that spot. The swing for upside pick there might be Holland. Similar to Amen, if he learns to shoot, he might have all-NBA potential. Castle is in the same boat, although as a guard.

i don't hate that as a philosophy.  i'm intrigued by both Zaccharie Risacher and Matas Buzelis, or at least the idea of them as its hard for me to form a real strong opinion about guys who don't play in college and are not obvious can't miss guys like Luka and Wemby.

[Mitch Cumsteen 18590]

19 hours ago, Fud said:

To be clear, my post was justifying him going #1 overall in general in this class, not to Houston at #3

I don't love the Clingan and Sengun pairing. You need to be confident that Sengun can become a spacer from three and that Clingan is just too good/safe to pass on, or you need to feel that you can't win big with Sengun and are looking to trade him for a star (like the Sabonis trade), and view Clingan as his eventual replacement

I'm usually "when in doubt, take a wing" since when they don't hit, they're at least holding their trade value better than bigs or guards that don't hit, and there should be a wide variety of flavors of wings at #3, although all of them have some sort of major flaw for picking at that spot. The swing for upside pick there might be Holland. Similar to Amen, if he learns to shoot, he might have all-NBA potential. Castle is in the same boat, although as a guard.

I'm obviously an outsider, but I would be all over Clingan if I were Houston. Not only is Sengun's range evolving, there's even the better than zero possibility that Clingan grows into a stretch 5 or at the very least becomes respectable from 15-20 feet out. He doesn't have terrible touch and actually shot really well at the combine, if you believe in such things.

I look around the west and who are the contenders over the next 5-10 years? Jokic is still only 28 years old with a game not predicated on athleticism that should age very well. Minnesota plays two seven footers, at least until they have to salary dump one of them. OKC has Holmgren and is almost assuredly adding another big sooner rather than later. Dallas has an interior presence now with Lively and Gafford. Wembanyama is lurking in San Antonio. Sengun is at a size disadvantage and is a defensive liability to all of them. Unless you believe in Steven Adams knee that he hasn't been able to play on in two years or want to invest in a Mason Plumlee-level journeyman, this team has a gaping need for an interior defender and rim protector. It's not news. They chased the hell out Brook Lopez last summer. Clingan seems like a no brainer to me.

[Fud 9557]

Clingan has shot 52% and 58% from the free throw line

Sengun shot around 30% on threes this year, mostly on wide open attempts 

The team I'd be looking at is Boston, which has five-out spacing at all times (their first three players off the bench can all shoot threes at volume), which just put up statistically the best offensive season ever by some metrics

If you draft Clingan because you think he's too good to pass up, then I'd be looking to make a Sabonis type of trade down the line 

[Mitch Cumsteen 18590]

15 minutes ago, Fud said:

Clingan has shot 52% and 58% from the free throw line

Sengun shot around 30% on threes this year, mostly on wide open attempts 

The team I'd be looking at is Boston, which has five-out spacing at all times (their first three players off the bench can all shoot threes at volume), which just put up statistically the best offensive season ever by some metrics

If you draft Clingan because you think he's too good to pass up, then I'd be looking to make a Sabonis type of trade down the line 

All fair. Clingan did shoot it better from the line in the last half of the season and his form looks okay to me. I don't think his outside shooting is a lost cause.

And sure, emulating Boston seems like a fine idea, but they have had to defend zero bigs in the playoffs that offer any sort offensive threat. They were lucky to dodge Embiid and Giannis. You aren't going to have that luxury in the west.

[Fud 9557]

This account is annoying, but he makes a good point here. Both are/were draft model darlings 

 

[Fud 9557]

Vecenie is pro Reed Sheppard to Houston, in large part due to how well he fits with Amen. Also likes the fit with each of Eason, Sengun, and Whitmore

He'd only trade this pick if it's part of a package for a true all-NBA type

[LCHorn 2632]

On 6/10/2024 at 8:40 PM, billfromlaketravis said:

3) Trade back, pick up a conditional pick, and draft Sheppard.

I don’t know why you think Sheppard is getting past the Spurs at 4.  Of course, Murphy’s Law-if they draft him he’ll be a two time all-star and a starter on a perennial championship contender.  

 

On 6/10/2024 at 9:11 PM, BigOrange1 said:

i'm intrigued by both Zaccharie Risacher and Matas Buzelis

Buzelis is my number two option at 3, mainly because all the scouting reports talk about how weak he is and that’s fixable with age and training.

[WBT 20671]

SIAP.  The Stevie Franchise era pretty much turned me off of the Rockets and the nba in general but this is cool.  Hard to believe it's been 30 years.  Game 3 tonight.

 

 

[Frank Drebin 5654]

I was at game 7 in 1994.  I was a senior in high school.  Our family company had season tickets at mid court about 4 rows up.  Great seats.  My grandparents, uncle and aunt were supposed to go.  The NBA was huge, in my mind, back then.

I called my grandparents' house and jokingly asked if they had a spare ticket to the game a few hours before tipoff.  My granddad and uncle had just been called to an emergency company meeting in Dallas.  My grandmother told me she was inviting a friend but the 4th was mine if I wanted it.  That game was very tense and close.  Cassell basically iced it late with a three pointer.  On the front page of the Chronicle next day you can see me high fiving my grandmother after that shot.

One of my favorite sports memories.  Houston had never won anything.

I think I went to only a handful of Rockets games since then (college).  And quit watching the NBA decades ago.  But I sure loved the NBA as a kid.  In my mind, the era from mid 80s to 1997 was the golden era of the NBA.  So many great players and personalities.  The current game of 3 point shots does not interest me.

[CurlyDumps 4485]

My dad went to game 4 of the '95 finals. He brought home the yellow and red "How Sweep It Is" poster that was handed out at the game. Had that up on my wall for years.

[BigOrange1 6471]

if Clingan can be our own version of Dereck Lively then he needs to be the pick.

[LCHorn 2632]

16 hours ago, BigOrange1 said:

if Clingan can be our own version of Dereck Lively then he needs to be the pick.

Lively is bouncy.  Clingan is a bruiser.

[ChickenSandwich 9853]

What would it cost to just move up one spot and take Sarr or Zaccharie Risacher?

 

Both seem to be the best fit for our team 

[billfromlaketravis 11528]

1 hour ago, ChickenSandwich said:

What would it cost to just move up one spot and take Sarr or Zaccharie Risacher?

 

Both seem to be the best fit for our team 

Hoping Sarr falls, but I’m not sure he’s worth moving up for when they can just take Sheppard at 3. 

[Fud 9557]

Sheppard seems to be the mock across the board lately 

 

[Macklemore 2876]

30 years ago today. 

 

[billfromlaketravis 11528]

I was very young, but I remember being irate that NBC did this bullshit. We already had the TV volume muted so we could listen to Gene instead of that Knicks’ honk Marv Albert, but everybody was pissed we couldn’t watch the game. 

[Fud 9557]

Which "core six" would you be most open to trading? 

[BigOrange1 6471]

46 minutes ago, Fud said:

Which "core six" would you be most open to trading? 

i sort of see them this way at the moment:

tier 1 - i'm not trading them before the upcoming season - sengun, amen, jabari

tier 1b - it would take a blockbuster to trade him before the upcoming season - jalen

tier 2 - i don't want to move them, but i'll listen to offers - whitmore, eason

 

i'm fine with mostly just running it back this season and can understand why the fanbase is hesitant to trade any of them at this point, but eventually one or two of them will likely move along.  when i see the clowns on twitter saying things like eason is untouchable i just roll my eyes.  i get being attached to the guys you draft, but they aren't going to end up paying all 6 of them in the long run.  

[ChickenSandwich 9853]

I would slide Jabari to the 1b but agree with everything else. 

[Fud 9557]

1) Risacher- notes that he thinks it's between Risacher and Clingan. They haven't been able to bring Sarr in for a workout yet. They're working out a ton of players, which means they'll potentially have options they're comfortable with if they trade back
2) Sarr- rival teams think this is Risacher or Sarr. Sarr has worked out for Washington and not Atlanta
3) Sheppard- viewed as having a narrow range since both Houston and San Antonio are viewed as liking him at #3 and #4, and the Hawks (in a trade back to #3-#4) and Hornets (at #6) also are viewed as potential landing spots. Houston could trade this pick for a team looking to trade up for Clingan
4) Castle- thinks Castle at #4 (if Risacher and Sheppard are gone) and Dillingham at #8 could be targets at this spots. Also Knecht at #8
5) Buzelis- the league views this as a fit
6) Knecht- draft range is #4-#9
7) Clingan- while Atlanta at #1 could be a landing spot, Houston, SA, Detroit, and Charlotte aren't fits, and teams after those want him, which makes him a prime trade candidate
'8) Dillingham- hasn't been able to work out for teams due to an ankle injury he's just now getting over
9) Williams- worked out for every team in the top ten except for Houston
10) Topic- his ACL injury has sunk him a bit. Visits with Portland (7/14), SA (8), Memphis (9), and Utah (10). Team needs to be comfortable with a redshirt year, and he makes sense for teams looking to tank for Flagg
11) Carter- draft range might be #8-#11
12) Saluan
13) Holland- Sacramento has been exploring trade options with this pick
14) Walter

 

 

[billfromlaketravis 11528]

Dumb question, would the Spurs trade their 2025 pick for Sheppard? I think they might. They desperately need a functional point guard. 
 

Charlotte is my other desired trade partner for teams looking to move up. They should be terrible and net a pretty nice pick in 2025. 

[Fud 9557]

Vecenie was on today's Russillo pod, by the way

1) Clingan

2) Sarr

3) Sheppard

4) Risacher

5) Buzelis

6) Castle

7) Williams

'8) Knecht

9) Carter

10) Salaun

11) Topic

12) Carrington

13) Dillingham

14) Edey

15) Holland

 

[Mitch Cumsteen 18590]

1 hour ago, billfromlaketravis said:

Dumb question, would the Spurs trade their 2025 pick for Sheppard? I think they might. They desperately need a functional point guard. 
 

Charlotte is my other desired trade partner for teams looking to move up. They should be terrible and net a pretty nice pick in 2025. 

I'll help you with both of these:

1. No way the Spurs are going to trade what is likely to be a pretty juicy first round pick in a very deep draft in 2025 to move up one spot in this draft for a prospect with as many question marks as Sheppard. I don't even believe he is even at the top of their board. They would likely take Risacher or Castle before Sheppard.

2. The Spurs own Charlotte's 2025 FRP, lottery protected.

[Fud 9557]

10 minutes ago, Mitch Cumsteen said:

to move up one spot in this draft

I took it as trading the pick for Sheppard, not swapping. So the Spurs would have #3, 4, and 8

[Mitch Cumsteen 18590]

1 minute ago, Fud said:

I took it as trading the pick for Sheppard, not swapping. So the Spurs would have #3, 4, and 8

Gotcha. I still can't imagine they would do that. The 2025 draft is looking too deep and they have too many young players already that they don't have the bandwidth to develop.

In addition to the two top 8 picks, they have 2 SRP (#35 and #48) in this draft. They drafted 3 FRP in 2022, Wemby plus a SRP (Cissoko) on a guaranteed deal in 2023, and potentially four FRP next year (their own, Atl unprotected, Chicago and Charlotte). They have to spread it out some. Loading up this year in this meh draft doesn't make any sense.

[Fud 9557]

1 minute ago, Mitch Cumsteen said:

Gotcha. I still can't imagine they would do that. The 2025 draft is looking too deep and they have too many young players already that they don't have the bandwidth to develop.

In addition to the two top 8 picks, they have 2 SRP (#35 and #48) in this draft. They drafted 3 FRP in 2022, Wemby plus a SRP (Cissoko) on a guaranteed deal in 2023, and potentially four FRP next year (their own, Atl unprotected, Chicago and Charlotte). They have to spread it out some. Loading up this year in this meh draft doesn't make any sense.

Yeah Houston has run into that issue. They traded away three recent first round players for nothing, and they still have a glut 

The move only really makes sense if (1) SA is sold on Sheppard and (2) they're confident they'll be good enough next season to where they're comfortable with not having those lotto odds

It would make more sense to try and package lesser picks for a swap from 4 or 8 to 3

[LCHorn 2632]

3 hours ago, billfromlaketravis said:

Dumb question, would the Spurs trade their 2025 pick for Sheppard? I think they might. They desperately need a functional point guard. 
 

Charlotte is my other desired trade partner for teams looking to move up. They should be terrible and net a pretty nice pick in 2025. 

You keep bringing this up and I just know why it makes sense to trade blindly for whatever might be behind Door #3.  Every draft is a crap shoot.  

 

1 hour ago, Fud said:

Yeah Houston has run into that issue. They traded away three recent first round players for nothing, and they still have a glut 

That’s one reason why I wouldn’t prioritize someone pulling minutes from the wings.  

[Dutchrudder 11152]

Houston Rockets

The Rockets' big break came in the lottery, when they jumped up to No. 3 via Brooklyn. That puts Houston in perfect position to draft Kentucky guard Reed Sheppard, a darling of stats-based projections (like mine) who's an ideal complement to the Rockets' budding talent as a lights-out shooter.

Houston fans might be dreaming of a big trade that gets the Rockets back to the playoffs, but for now the prudent move is to see how their March surge translates with the No. 3 pick and a healthy Steven Adams and Tari Eason in the mix. -- Kevin Pelton

https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/40380729/how-all-30-nba-teams-nail-their-2024-offseasons

[ChickenSandwich 9853]

Trade back and grab Topic

[billfromlaketravis 11528]

Thanks for clarifying on the Spurs pick upthread. 
 

Chicago just traded Caruso. I’d imagine they’ve reached out. Donovan is a darn good coach, but I think they’re solidly in the lottery with White at PG, DeRozan(?), Giddey and a bunch of spare parts. I’d do the 3rd pick for their unprotected pick in 2025. It’s a risk, but a top 6-7 pick in 2025 is more valuable than the 3rd pick in this draft. Fight me. 
 

Clingan is what the Rockets were doing 3 years ago. Assembling talent without any idea how they’ll fit. Sheppard would be FVV’s replacement in 2025-2026 with immediate value as a shooter. He makes more sense on paper. 

Edited June 21 by billfromlaketravis