THE College Football Playoff Rankings Thread [MICH,WASH,TEX,ALA]

[Fastbreak 3959]

You're forgetting FSU in that scenario.  They're your problem.

Will they let them in without star QB?

[Valmy77 13110]

FSU has lost its QB and they got Florida and Louisville left right?

But if we go 12-1 and win the conference title, that would be awesome CFP or no. Not sure we are ready to beat Georgia or Ohio State yet anyway. But obviously it would be more awesome to be 12-1 and be in the CFP.

But let's get to 12-1 and see what happens. I think Georgia beats Bama anyway.

[Js1 85135]

Just now, Fastbreak said:

Will they let them in without star QB?

If they’re undefeated? Yes. Ohio State 2014 still made it after Barrett got hurt against Michigan. If FSU’s backup wins them the next 2 games, they are in. 100%

[ClubWhatever 12087]

7 minutes ago, VABuckeye said:

You're forgetting FSU in that scenario.  They're your problem.

I know a guy

[Doc Sam Beckett 5784]

12 minutes ago, Hondo said:

A lot of people seem to think if Alabama beats UGA in the SECCG, then UGA will still be in the CFP as a 1-loss non-conference champ, blocking out Texas (assuming we win out).

- Big 10 champ (Michigan or Ohio State)

- Pac-12 champ (Washington or Oregon)

- SEC champ (Alabama)

+ UGA

It would be bullshit, but I could see it happening.

 

Of course, once again, don't lose to OU on the last play of the game and it's a non-issue.

 

Of course it would be bullshit, but if there were ever a team to get that benefit, it's UGA 

[The_Great_Hornsby 3329]

17 minutes ago, Hondo said:

A lot of people seem to think if Alabama beats UGA in the SECCG, then UGA will still be in the CFP as a 1-loss non-conference champ, blocking out Texas (assuming we win out).

- Big 10 champ (Michigan or Ohio State)

- Pac-12 champ (Washington or Oregon)

- SEC champ (Alabama)

+ UGA

It would be bullshit, but I could see it happening.

 

Of course, once again, don't lose to OU on the last play of the game and it's a non-issue.

 

It wont happen, it isnt even a remote possibility. We would own a win over the SEC champ who beat UGA, and we would be a conf champ. 0.0% chance Texas gets left out for a 1 loss Georgia. 

[The_Great_Hornsby 3329]

12 minutes ago, Js1 said:

1-loss conference champion Texas isn’t being left out if it’s against SEC champ game loser Georgia for that last spot. We’d have a common opponent in Bama - we won. And would be conference champions and they would not be. 

2018 is the only year a one-loss team with a conference championship game win was left out, and Ohio State had lost to 6-7 Purdue by 29 points. One-loss Big 12 champ OU made it over them. You had undefeated Bama, Clemson, ND and then it was between two one-loss conf champs OU and Georgia. 

This

[DigDug 1649]

18 minutes ago, Hondo said:

A lot of people seem to think if Alabama beats UGA in the SECCG, then UGA will still be in the CFP as a 1-loss non-conference champ, blocking out Texas (assuming we win out).

- Big 10 champ (Michigan or Ohio State)

- Pac-12 champ (Washington or Oregon)

- SEC champ (Alabama)

+ UGA

It would be bullshit, but I could see it happening.

 

Of course, once again, don't lose to OU on the last play of the game and it's a non-issue.

 

Yeah no shit don't lose it's not a problem, everyone knows that.  And it wasn't the last play of the game.

[victory88 5663]

You guys are listening to this bullshit narrative from the media.  We’re likely the #2 or #3 as far as talent goes.  We’ve dealt with a ton of injuries and generally play to the level of our competition but lets not downplay how good this team is.  Which offense besides UGA and Michigan are going to run the ball on us?  Bama hasn’t been able to run on us in our last 2 matchups.  We’re bigger than most teams on both sides of the lines and we may have the best skill talent in the country outside of Ohio state WRs.  Those teams have to play us too.  Oh yeah, our QB can be lethal if he’s have a good day.  Let’s win out and see where this goes but I’d take Texas against Oregon, FSU, Bama and tOSU.  Only teams I’d be worried about are Washington, Michigan and Georgia.  Georgia and Michigan can match us with size on the lines and Washington would tear our secondary apart.  With that said, we can beat any team when we play our A game.   

[The_Great_Hornsby 3329]

1 minute ago, victory88 said:

You guys are listening to this bullshit narrative from the media.  We’re likely the #2 or #3 as far as talent goes.  We’ve dealt with a ton of injuries and generally play to the level of our competition but lets not downplay how good this team is.  Which offense besides UGA and Michigan are going to run the ball on us?  Bama hasn’t been able to run on us in our last 2 matchups.  We’re bigger than most teams on both sides of the lines and we may have the best skill talent in the country outside of Ohio state WRs.  Those teams have to play us too.  Oh yeah, our QB can be lethal if he’s have a good day.  Let’s win out and see where this goes but I’d take Texas against Oregon, FSU, Bama and tOSU.  Only teams I’d be worried about are Washington, Michigan and Georgia.  Georgia and Michigan can match us with size on the lines and Washington would tear our secondary apart.  With that said, we can beat any team when we play our A game.   

Agreed. Nobody in the top 10 has dealt with more injuries than Texas and more ref fuckery. The Big 12 is a top to bottom good conference and everyone is taking their best shot at us every week and we keep beating them. This team is special and I think if we end up dancing, we can win it all. 

[Hondo 661]

6 minutes ago, DigDug said:

Yeah no shit don't lose it's not a problem, everyone knows that.  And it wasn't the last play of the game.

Got anything to add other than your faux aggressive, message board-tough tone?

But yeah, you're right.  OU scored with 15 seconds left.  The record has been corrected to be technically accurate.  All good now?

[Hondo 661]

27 minutes ago, VABuckeye said:

You're forgetting FSU in that scenario.  They're your problem.

I should have quoted the post to which I was referring.  It assumed an FSU loss, since Travis is out and they have Florida and Louisville left, making a loss likely.

Quote

Yeah, as said above, our way in is an FSU loss and then they just take the Big 12, B1G, Pac and SEC champs.

 

[The_Great_Hornsby 3329]

4 minutes ago, Hondo said:

I should have quoted the post to which I was referring.  It assumed an FSU loss, since Travis is out and they have Florida and Louisville left, making a loss likely.

 

If FSU loses and Texas wins out. We are in. 100% likelihood. There is no argument that can be constructed that would keep us out. 

[HookEm 2447]

11 hours ago, Michael Knight said:

Theres a very real chance theres 4 undefeated conference champions which makes all arguments moot. Don't think that's ever happened but even crazier would be 9 1 loss teams

According to Massey, here are the odds each remaining undefeated goes undefeated from here out:

• Michigan - 50.2%
• Georgia - 45.1%
• Ohio State - 43.7%
• Florida State - 41.6%
• Washington - 31.2%

The odds that there will be four undefeated conference champions is thus 2.9% or 1 in 34.

Here are the odds for the one-loss teams to win out including their respective conference champ games:

• Texas - 59.6%
• Oregon - 45.6%
• Alabama - 41.7%
• Louisville - 24.5%

 

[TommyGufano 6021]

29 minutes ago, Js1 said:

If they’re undefeated? Yes. Ohio State 2014 still made it after Barrett got hurt against Michigan. If FSU’s backup wins them the next 2 games, they are in. 100%

Winning their CCG 59-0 helped make their case. FSU hasn't covered themselves in glory on their path to 11-0 with their QB to this point

[Rockethorn1978 6061]

The brooks injury really killed my excitement of making the CFP. We can beat tech and win the ccg without him but I’m not sure we can in the CFP matchups. I would love to be wrong. And yes Baxter had a good game yesterday but he’s not brooks. 

[The_Great_Hornsby 3329]

Just now, Rockethorn1978 said:

The brooks injury really killed my excitement of making the CFP. We can beat tech and win the ccg without him but I’m not sure we can in the CFP matchups. I would love to be wrong. And yes Baxter had a good game yesterday but he’s not brooks. 

Everyone said we couldnt beat Iowa State without him. Now we are worried we cant win in the CFP without him. It dont make a shit. Just win! 

[Hondo 661]

Just now, The_Great_Hornsby said:

If FSU loses and Texas wins out. We are in. 100% likelihood. There is no argument that can be constructed that would keep us out. 

I certainly hope so.  I'm not making the argument.  I'm simply saying others have made the case that a 1-loss non-conference champion, 2 x repeat national champion UGA would get in over one of the 1-loss conference champs - with Texas being that team since UW/Oregon and Michigan/Ohio State are all currently ranked ahead of us.

I don't agree with it and think it would be pretty heinous, but weirder things have happened. 

(Remember when Alabama didn't even make it to their conference championship game at all and still went to the Natty game in 2012?  Yeah, they won it 21-0, but they never should have gotten the chance.)

[victory88 5663]

3 minutes ago, Rockethorn1978 said:

The brooks injury really killed my excitement of making the CFP. We can beat tech and win the ccg without him but I’m not sure we can in the CFP matchups. I would love to be wrong. And yes Baxter had a good game yesterday but he’s not brooks. 

Hey you guys remember that game against #3 Bama on the road… I wonder who started that game at RB?

Just because Baxter was injured most of this season doesn’t mean he can’t carry the rock.  He beat out Brooks in camp.  We’ll be fine running the ball. 

[troph 24575]

Yeah beating west coast OSU and then WA would be something but at that point OSU has 4 losses so it won’t be as impressive on paper.

[The_Great_Hornsby 3329]

3 minutes ago, Hondo said:

I certainly hope so.  I'm not making the argument.  I'm simply saying others have made the case that a 1-loss non-conference champion, 2 x repeat national champion UGA would get in over one of the 1-loss conference champs - with Texas being that team since UW/Oregon and Michigan/Ohio State are all currently ranked ahead of us.

I don't agree with it and think it would be pretty heinous, but weirder things have happened. 

(Remember when Alabama didn't even make it to their conference championship game at all and still went to the Natty game in 2012?  Yeah, they won it 21-0, but they never should have gotten the chance.)

We beat Bama. How the fuck could they even make the argument that Georgia should be in front of us. Georgia will absolutely miss the playoff if they lose to Bama. Tough shit. It is hard to win 3 straight championships and that is why. That game against Bama is their season on the line. Unless of course we lose to Tech/OSU. Then they would back their way in.  

[Hondo 661]

4 minutes ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

We beat Bama. How the fuck could they even make the argument that Georgia should be in front of us. Georgia will absolutely miss the playoff if they lose to Bama. Tough shit. It is hard to win 3 straight championships and that is why. That game against Bama is their season on the line. Unless of course we lose to Tech/OSU. Then they would back their way in.  

How did they make the argument that Alabama should be in the 2012 NCG when they didn't even make it to their CONFERENCE championship game?  People make up all kinds of stuff to justify doing what they want to do. 

"Eye test", etc.  

"Texas has squeaked by a few unranked teams and their loss is to mid-ranked OU.  Georgia's only loss is to the conference champion and juggernaut, Alabama.  Georgia is clearly the better team."

The above might be absolutely true (I think UGA is better than Texas, especially with all the injuries), but it shouldn't matter.  You should have to win the games and your conference, period.

But "shouldn't matter" doesn't mean it won't matter.

 

Let's say Oregon beats Washington, Alabama beats Georgia, and we win out.

We beat Alabama, but do you think if Texas and Alabama are both 1-loss conference champs, Alabama would be the one left out because we beat them head-to-head? 

[The_Great_Hornsby 3329]

1 minute ago, Hondo said:

How did they make the argument that Alabama should be in the 2012 NCG when they didn't even make it to their CONFERENCE championship game?  People make up all kinds of stuff to justify doing what they want to do. 

"Eye test", etc.  

"Texas has squeaked by a few unranked teams and their loss is to mid-ranked OU.  Georgia's only loss is to the conference champion and juggernaut, Alabama.  Georgia is clearly the better team."

The above might be absolutely true (I think UGA is better than Texas, especially with all the injuries), but it shouldn't matter.  You should have to win the games and your conference, period.

But "shouldn't matter" doesn't mean it won't matter.

 

Let's say Oregon beats Washington, Alabama beats Georgia, and we win out.

We beat Alabama, but do you think if Texas and Alabama are both 1-loss conference champs, Alabama would be the one left out because we beat them head-to-head? 

Oregon would get left out in that situation. They would avoid the controversy by screwing Oregon. 

[CooterBrown 17919]

If that happens, they're taking the winners of the SEC, Pac 12, Big Ten and Big 12.

If they can make that selection, they will. It was an argument for going to 4 teams but I don’t think we have ever actually gotten a playoff with the 4 champions from the 4 biggest conferences.

[Js1 85135]

4 minutes ago, Hondo said:

How did they make the argument that Alabama should be in the 2012 NCG when they didn't even make it to their CONFERENCE championship game?

This ain’t the BCS anymore, brother 

[HRSchenker 2259]

If Oregon wins out there won't be room for us in the playoff. Our best bet is Washington winning and Florida State losing. If those don't happen I really don't see a path for us to the playoff. The only argument we have against Alabama right now is head to head matchup at their house. If they take down the number 1 team in the SEC title game it's over. I'd love to be wrong but I just don't see it. 

[HRSchenker 2259]

23 minutes ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

We beat Bama. How the fuck could they even make the argument that Georgia should be in front of us. Georgia will absolutely miss the playoff if they lose to Bama. Tough shit. It is hard to win 3 straight championships and that is why. That game against Bama is their season on the line. Unless of course we lose to Tech/OSU. Then they would back their way in.  

We lost our fucking ass in 2008 to the computers because they wouldn't value head to head matchups. You think the committee is going to change that with the decisions they've made in the past few years? Head to head doesn't mean shit to them even though it means everything to us

[Hondo 661]

Just now, The_Great_Hornsby said:

Oregon would get left out in that situation. They would avoid the controversy by screwing Oregon. 

Maybe so and I hope for our sake, you're right.

Hopefully it's all irrelevant hypotheticals anyway.  We definitely have to beat Tech next week and then win the CCG before any of it matters.  First things first.

[The_Great_Hornsby 3329]

1 minute ago, HRSchenker said:

If Oregon wins out there won't be room for us in the playoff. Our best bet is Washington winning and Florida State losing. If those don't happen I really don't see a path for us to the playoff. The only argument we have against Alabama right now is head to head matchup at their house. If they take down the number 1 team in the SEC title game it's over. I'd love to be wrong but I just don't see it. 

Im confused how you are connecting Oregon/Washington to FSU losing? Go re-check the scenarios. 

 

If Washington loses it would be:

1. Georgia

2. Ohio State/Michigan

3. Oregon

4. Texas

[Hondo 661]

6 minutes ago, Js1 said:

This ain’t the BCS anymore, brother 

Yeah, I'm aware that we're in the CFP system now vs. the BCS of the past.  Thanks for the heads up.  

That example was one of mental gymnastics to justify their intended action, which is relevant no matter the system.

[Dnaguy 11777]

On 11/14/2023 at 10:53 PM, TheBryMan81 said:

1 Georgia

2/3 Ohio St / Mich

If Ohio St wins this matchup, I think they jump back to 1. I think Michigan would drop all the way below Bama (until Bama loses to Georgia).

4 Florida St

5/6 Wash / Oreg

I think this is the committee 's way of saying that the winner of the rematch is in the playoffs (replacing Michigan if they lose. If they beat Ohio St and Oregon beats Washington so that they all end up with 1-loss, then this becomes a tricky discussion)

7 Texas

We're in a tough spot. If Washington wins a rematch, they move up into top 4 ahead of Ohio St/Mich loser, we jump Oregon into 6 (maybe into 5 depending on the drop of Ohio St/ Mich loser). If Oregon wins, then our resumes are pretty close (they'd have ranked wins over Washington, Utah, Oregon St). Their Washington win will be seen to be as good as our Bama win. KU, KSt, and Ok St are all still ranked in the back end of the 25, but KU/Ok St losses really hurt our resume, especially if they drop any further.

8 Bama

I don't think the committee will jump Bama over us unless we drop a second game.

Based on remaining schedules, I think the CFP rankings will end up

1) Georgia

2) Ohio St

3) Washington

4) Florida St

5) Texas

6) Mich

😎 7)Bama

8 ) Oregon 

I think what we need is Oregon to drop a second game, still qualify for the CCG, then beat Washington in the CCG. They won't put a 2 loss conference champion in the playoff over Texas. And they won't put 1-loss non champion Washington over 1-loss champion Texas

If FSU drops a game or loses to Louisville and we win the Big12 then we are in.

They are down their QB1 and can very likely drop one of the next two considering it’s a rivalry game and Louisville isn’t a slouch… and Louisville could lose to Kentucky looking forward to their ACC champ game even though they Lee playing their rival Kentucky.

[The_Great_Hornsby 3329]

4 minutes ago, HRSchenker said:

We lost our fucking ass in 2008 to the computers because they wouldn't value head to head matchups. You think the committee is going to change that with the decisions they've made in the past few years? Head to head doesn't mean shit to them even though it means everything to us

Dude they arent taking a 1 loss SEC runner up Georgia over 1 loss Big 12 champ Texas. They just arent gonna do it, there are so many fucking reasons why they wont, so please stop with the insane hypothetical until that situation actually happens and Georgia loses to Bama. Otherwise we are just wasting time discussing it.  

[Dnaguy 11777]

I think you’re right that Georgia with one loss doesn’t get in over us. As we beat the team that they would have just lost to

[victory88 5663]

I don’t understand the head to head argument.  They’ve had plenty of chances to put Bama ahead of us and haven’t.  Clearly it means enough that Bama is still behind us.  If Bama wins out, they should be in the CFP as the SEC champ and it will only make our win look better.  This is the committee’s worst fear bc then they have to justify leaving a potential conference champion in Texas with a last second loss in a rivalry game against a ranked opponent that had an impressive double digit win on the road against another CFP team.  In this scenario, we’re in if FSU or Washington lose and UGA loses too.  I don’t think they put 1 loss Oregon ahead of 1 loss Texas when it comes down to it and you look at who each team beat.  Oregon’s SOS is bad and their big win against Utah doesn’t look so good.  

Either way, the best scenario is for FSU to lose and that may be more likely than we think.

Edited November 19, 2023 by victory88

[TheBryMan81 2503]

1 minute ago, victory88 said:

I don’t understand the head to head argument.  They’ve had plenty of chances to put Bama ahead of us and haven’t.  Clearly it means enough that Bama is still behind us.  If Bama wins out, they should be in the CFP as the SEC champ and it will only make our win look better.  This is the committee’s worst fear bc then they have to justify leaving a potential conference champion in Texas with a last second loss in a rivalry game against a ranked opponent that had an impressive double digit win on the road against another CFP team.  In this scenario, we’re in if FSU or Washington win.  I don’t think they put 1 loss Oregon ahead of 1 loss Texas when it comes down to it and you look at who each team beat.  Oregon’s SOS is bad and their big win against Utah doesn’t look so good.

If Oregon finishes with one loss, that means they beat Washington in the CCG and now their resume all of a sudden looks a lot better, especially with Bo Nix as the current Heisman favorite. If Oregon loses to Washington again, they've got two losses and they're out.

[MirrOlure 14634]

Don’t sleep on OrSU vs. Oregon….

Some shit will go down Rivalry weekend and/or Championship weekend. I mean, Iowa could win the Big 10….just hope the shit going down isn’t on us!

[TheBryMan81 2503]

14 minutes ago, Dnaguy said:

If FSU drops a game or loses to Louisville and we win the Big12 then we are in.

They are down their QB1 and can very likely drop one of the next two considering it’s a rivalry game and Louisville isn’t a slouch… and Louisville could lose to Kentucky looking forward to their ACC champ game even though they Lee playing their rival Kentucky.

Yeah, the Jordan Travis injury changes everything. FSU dropping a game now seems to be very very possible.

We need to climb three spots from 7 --> 4.

FSU loss drops them

Wash/Oreg loss drops them

The question is how far do they drop the OSU/Mich loser next week. If they drop the loser below us (which I think they will) then we're in a good spot to take advantage of CCG losses given we take care of business

 

[LonghornSean 3942]

If you had told me before the season we would potentially be 12-1 conference champs and with a win over Bama, I would have bet any amount of money that we wouldn’t miss the playoffs.

The fact that it is an actual possibility is wild, and especially annoying considering OU’s four playoff bids at 12-1. 

[TheBryMan81 2503]

2 minutes ago, LonghornSean said:

If you had told me before the season we would potentially be 12-1 conference champs and with a win over Bama, I would have bet any amount of money that we wouldn’t miss the playoffs.

The fact that it is an actual possibility is wild, and especially annoying considering OU’s four playoff bids at 12-1. 

The problem is that, currently, the other 4 projected conference champs are undefeated, which has never happened this late into the season before. It's been a wild season.

[MirrOlure 14634]

Yeah, the Jordan Travis injury changes everything. FSU dropping a game now seems to be very very possible.
We need to climb three spots from 7 --> 4.
FSU loss drops them
Wash/Oreg loss drops them
The question is how far do they drop the OSU/Mich loser next week. If they drop the loser below us (which I think they will) then we're in a good spot to take advantage of CCG losses given we take care of business
 

It doesn’t (shouldn’t) matter where they drop then next week. Stating the obvious…it’s only the following week’s poll that matters. I can’t imagine a scenario where a 2nd Place in division Michigan or OSU gets in over a one loss Conference Champion Texas. Other teams might, but not those.

[The_Great_Hornsby 3329]

2 minutes ago, MirrOlure said:

 

It doesn’t (shouldn’t) matter where they drop then next week. Stating the obvious…it’s only the following week’s poll that matters. I can’t imagine a scenario where a 2nd Place in division Michigan or OSU gets in over a one loss Conference Champion Texas. Other teams might, but not those.

 

This is correct. Loser of Michigan/Ohio St is out of the CFP hunt barring a ton of unexpected losses from Texas and others.

[TommyGufano 6021]

7 minutes ago, TheBryMan81 said:

Yeah, the Jordan Travis injury changes everything. FSU dropping a game now seems to be very very possible.

We need to climb three spots from 7 --> 4.

FSU loss drops them

Wash/Oreg loss drops them

The question is how far do they drop the OSU/Mich loser next week. If they drop the loser below us (which I think they will) then we're in a good spot to take advantage of CCG losses given we take care of business

 

I'm not nearly as confident as a lot of posters here are about Texas leapfrogging certain teams in certain hypotheticals, but I have zero concern with 1-loss Michigan or tOSU if we win out

[Js1 85135]

Just now, The_Great_Hornsby said:

This is correct. Loser of Michigan/Ohio St is out of the CFP hunt barring a ton of unexpected losses from Texas and others.

Yeah it would have to be 2007 levels of chaos for that to happen 

[LonghornSean 3942]

2 minutes ago, TheBryMan81 said:

The problem is that, currently, the other 4 projected conference champs are undefeated, which has never happened this late into the season before. It's been a wild season.

Yeah that’s the obvious caveat. You just don’t expect that to happen, and yet it’s getting close.

No top 8 team has a loss to a non top 8 team, except our last minute loss to OU.

Freakishly top-heavy season.

 

[HRSchenker 2259]

34 minutes ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

Im confused how you are connecting Oregon/Washington to FSU losing? Go re-check the scenarios. 

 

If Washington loses it would be:

1. Georgia

2. Ohio State/Michigan

3. Oregon

4. Texas

What's confusing about it? If Oregon and FSU win we're out. Washington absolutely needs to win in the conference title game for us to have a shot.

[The_Great_Hornsby 3329]

5 minutes ago, HRSchenker said:

What's confusing about it? If Oregon and FSU win we're out. Washington absolutely needs to win in the conference title game for us to have a shot.

For fucks sake, I was trying to be nice to you because you clearly are not understanding the situation. 

It does not fucking matter what Oregon or Washington do because they play each other and 1 of them will be eliminated from discussion and the other will most likely be ahead of us. 

All we need is Florida State to lose. Washington winning or losing is completely irrelevant. 

Edited November 19, 2023 by The_Great_Hornsby

[blutow 222]

22 minutes ago, victory88 said:

I don’t think they put 1 loss Oregon ahead of 1 loss Texas when it comes down to it and you look at who each team beat.  Oregon’s SOS is bad and their big win against Utah doesn’t look so good.  

Yeah, that's rational/logical.  But unfortunately they dug a deep hole by putting Oregon in front of Texas/Bama in the initial rankings (based on eye test at the time and OU loss making our loss look worse).  They would need a "narrative" to explain a change going forward.  It doesn't have to be a great explanation, but they need something to explain why it's changed.  They could explain Bama jumping over Oregon based on a CCG win against Georgia (more impressive than Oregon beating an undefeated Washington), but I don't think a Texas CCG win over a lower ranked OSU or OU could be argued as a bigger win than Oregon over undefeated Washington.   If we win out, I still like our chances, but we'll need help.  FSU loss is most likely.      

[blutow 222]

6 minutes ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

It does not fucking matter what Oregon or Washington do because they play each other and 1 of them will be eliminated from discussion and the other will most likely be ahead of us. 

There is still room for PAC to be left out.  I'm not saying it's likely, but Oregon could lose to Oregon state and then Washington loses in the CCG.  An FSU loss is far and away the most likely path in for Texas.  

[The_Great_Hornsby 3329]

3 minutes ago, blutow said:

There is still room for PAC to be left out.  I'm not saying it's likely, but Oregon could lose to Oregon state and then Washington loses in the CCG.  An FSU loss is far and away the most likely path in for Texas.  

Correct. The PAC can be left out if Oregon loses to OSU and then Arizona beats Washington in the PAC champ game. 

[Pancho 44492]

Stop saying guarantee. Good lord nothing is guaranteed.

If FSU and Wash win out it’ll be big 10, fsu, wash, sec

and yes there are folks already clamoring for the possibility of 2 sec teams in. 
 

We have the h2h against Alabama in our pocket but what else hurts it’s our resume of who we’ve beaten and where they are currently ranked (since the committee goes by their current ranking and not their past ranking, I believe)

we will also be playing the lowest rated team in the CCG unless we play ou and they move up to top 10 or Louisville gets beat by Kentucky