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THE College Football Playoff Rankings Thread [MICH,WASH,TEX,ALA]

texifornia

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Ojo Rojo

Ojo Rojo 1906

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, gmr548 said:

Okay, but how do you answer the simple question of who would beat who outside of a committee or computer rankings?

Besides, by this logic Texas vs FSU isn't even a CFP debate, it's the Fiesta Bowl or something. Georgia, Ohio State, Michigan, and Oregon are your CFP teams here and you could entertain Washington.

I'm saying if I was on the committee then my criteria would be who would win head to head. I believe Texas' resume is currently better than FSU's even with one loss.  I also think Texas would beat FSU today, especially without their starting QB.  I think Texas is the better team than FSU, but no one seems to question them getting in if they are undefeated. That logic simply ignores the fact that some one-loss teams could be better than some undefeated teams.  It's like if you are a Power 5 undefeated that is a golden ticket. I think that's bullshit. I think the whole thing is bullshit. I'm so glad for the expanded playoff finally.

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LonghornSean

LonghornSean 3942

Posted
Posted (edited)

Herbie says we’d be in over Bama in that chaos scenario, but then argues that resumes should only be used to distinguish between clusters of teams.

What? I understand using eye-test to some degree, but if resumes aren’t a primary factor in ranking teams than what is the point of playing games.

Edited by LonghornSean
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LonghornSean

LonghornSean 3942

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Pescado_Rojo said:

Did a Longhorn fuck Joey Galloway's girl or something? He's been talking shit about Texas all season and he just did it again on ESPN. "Texas has struggled lately. Alabama is a better team." Fuck this douche. 

Putting aside his lack of favor to Texas, Galloway is just bad on this show, with shitty reasoning and interrupting the others (especially McElroy) constantly.

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BigHornedLurker

BigHornedLurker 1893

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Posted

The only way Oregon or Bama can get in over Texas is the eye test .

 

Oregon 

- plays a soft SOS, easy to look good playing puffs

- no significant ranked wins , lost to the only top ranked team on their schedule 

 

Bama

- lost to texas at home ?

- good but weaker SOS than Texas

 

I'm going to be real pissed if we win out and miss it. Still hoping for some upsets to clear this up 

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blutow

blutow 222

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Good on McElroy for pushing strongly for Texas over Bama based on head to head if it comes to that.  Seems like opinions are pretty split on that one.  It really would suck for Bama to be excluded after winning the SEC and they would basically be punished for scheduling a tough team early in the year.  The right answer is that Texas and Bama should have been in front of Oregon from the start based on resume, but I can't see how they back pedal from what they have already screwed up (short of just admitting that they screwed up the initial rankings).  

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ballrific

ballrific 215

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it's not a stretch to say FSU will lose 1 of their next 2 games and UM/OSU will work itself out.  That just leaves us having to win our next 2 games.  If we do that, Oregon isn't getting in ahead of us even if they beat UW (only chance is if the Tech game is a nail biter, that leaves room for fuckery)

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blutow

blutow 222

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Posted
2 minutes ago, HRSchenker said:

We need Washington to win and Florida State to lose. If that doesn't happen we're fucked.

We are locked in if FSU loses.  I'm not sure how washington winning would help Texas, I rather both Washington and Oregon lose this weekend and that would lock Texas as well.  Of course, Texas still needs to win out....

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Lou_Sassle

Lou_Sassle 2865

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Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, HRSchenker said:

We need Washington to win and Florida State to lose. If that doesn't happen we're fucked.

Washington does not play in to it at all if fsu loses. Fsu loses and we win our last 2, then we're in. It'll be Texas, osu/mich winner, bama/ug winner, ou/wash winner.

Edited by Lou_Sassle
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dcar00

dcar00 14036

Posted
Posted

Galloway is stupid.

That said, It really is this simple at this point(assuming we win 2 games)

We need FSU to lose.  SEC Bias and the stupid Oregon looks so good against shitty comp is not going away.   It doesn't matter if Bama wins or loses to UGA. 

If Bama wins and Oregon beats Wash it is

Mich/OSU, Bama, UGA, FSU

If UGA wins it is

Mich/OSU, UGA, FSU, Oregon

If Wash beats Oregon and Bama wins it is 

Mich/OSU, Wash, FSU, UGA

If UGA wins it is

Mich/OSU, Wash, FSU, UGA

a) they aren't denying UGA a shot at 3 in a row because Bama beat them even if it creates a potential rematch in title game.  SECSECSEC

b) the narrative is written that Bama in Sept is not the same Bama because Saban magic and shit

c) they don't really consider SOS much. If they did we'd be ahead of Oregon already.  the committee is a bunch of fucking morons.

d) adding on to "c" the Big 12 is already considered imploded by the media and a shitty conference regardless of what the SOS shows. Texas can prove they are worthy next year when they play a real schedule in the SECSECSEC.

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dcar00

dcar00 14036

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Posted
15 minutes ago, blutow said:

Good on McElroy for pushing strongly for Texas over Bama based on head to head if it comes to that.  Seems like opinions are pretty split on that one.  It really would suck for Bama to be excluded after winning the SEC and they would basically be punished for scheduling a tough team early in the year.  The right answer is that Texas and Bama should have been in front of Oregon from the start based on resume, but I can't see how they back pedal from what they have already screwed up (short of just admitting that they screwed up the initial rankings).  

McElroy is at least trying to not do the eye test bullshit which is appreciated.  

Oregon has likely Heisman winner. McFarland already went down the "you can only play the games you have on the schedule" path which is exactly how the committee thinks(see morons).

 

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The_Great_Hornsby

The_Great_Hornsby 3329

Posted
Posted (edited)
27 minutes ago, HRSchenker said:

We need Washington to win and Florida State to lose. If that doesn't happen we're fucked.

Washington winning out has fuck all to do with us getting in. You parroted this bullshit last week and are parroting it again and you are wrong. Them losing to Oregon is an infinitely better situation than them beating Oregon in the PAC champ game. Because a 1 loss Washington isnt sniffing the playoffs and 1 loss Oregon wont necessarily go in front of us. An undefeated Washington would though. 

Florida State losing guarantees us a spot. 

Edited by The_Great_Hornsby
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The_Great_Hornsby

The_Great_Hornsby 3329

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Posted
20 minutes ago, blutow said:

We are locked in if FSU loses.  I'm not sure how washington winning would help Texas, I rather both Washington and Oregon lose this weekend and that would lock Texas as well.  Of course, Texas still needs to win out....

See my above post. This dude parroted this shit all last week and everyone told him he was wrong. He is clueless. 

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The_Great_Hornsby

The_Great_Hornsby 3329

Posted
Posted (edited)

Playoff scenarios that would put Texas in the playoff 100%:

1) Florida State loses to either Florida/Louisville (ACC misses playoff) 

2) Oregon loses to OSU and then Arizona beats Washington in the PAC championship (PAC misses playoff) 

Scenarios where the committee will determine our fate:

3) Bama beats Georgia, Texas gets the nod over a 1 loss Pac 12 Champ Oregon by virtue of a H2H road win against the SEC champ (PAC misses playoff)

4) Bama beats Georgia, Texas gets the nod over Bama by virtue of a H2H road win (assuming Washington wins out, SEC misses the playoff)

Highly unlikely but technically possible:

PAC misses playoff:

5) Washington loses to Wazzu, then beats either Oregon/Arizona in the PAC champ (Texas goes over 1 loss PAC champion Wash)

SEC misses playoff:

6) Georgia loses to Bama and Bama loses to Auburn prior to that result (SEC misses playoff)

Big 10 misses playoffs scenario:

7) Ohio St/Mich winner loses the Big 10 champ game to Iowa (lol) (Big 10 misses playoff)

 

Situations 1 and 2 are 100% that Texas would get in. 

Situations 3 and 4 I feel better than 50/50 about Texas's chances but they require Bama to beat Georgia which might be a tall order for them. 

Situations 5, 6, and 7 are extreme longshots to occur but for the sake of completeness I included them.

Edited by The_Great_Hornsby
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dcar00

dcar00 14036

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1 hour ago, Ojo Rojo said:

I'm saying if I was on the committee then my criteria would be who would win head to head. I believe Texas' resume is currently better than FSU's even with one loss.  I also think Texas would beat FSU today, especially without their starting QB.  I think Texas is the better team than FSU, but no one seems to question them getting in if they are undefeated. That logic simply ignores the fact that some one-loss teams could be better than some undefeated teams.  It's like if you are a Power 5 undefeated that is a golden ticket. I think that's bullshit. I think the whole thing is bullshit. I'm so glad for the expanded playoff finally.

number of losses is everything as long as you are considered P5.  we are still in the poll era and will be even when it goes to the expanded playoff.  that said at least it will be settled on the field.

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gmr548

gmr548 16518

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Posted
To put the schedules into prespective: Wyoming would be Bama's 6th most difficult game. 

Care to show your work on this? Because honestly at face value this reads like Message Board Geniuses.

Wyoming is a good G5 team. Potentially a top 10 G5 team if they had a separate poll. They are also a Mountain West also ran with two 20+ point conference losses under their belt. Them beating Texas Tech and Tech’s subsequent success in the Big 12 says more about Texas’s schedule than Alabama’s.

Wyoming is 85th in Sagarin, Below the entire Big 12 and entire SEC save Vanderbilt (aka no one Alabama played). 85th in K Ford and 86 in ESPN FPI, above only Baylor and Vandy. 76 in FEI, above MSU, BYU, Houston, Baylor, and Vandy.

Wyoming is an insignificant tune up game on Texas’s schedule and arguing that it would be anything but on Bama’s seems off.
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WhatTheBuck

WhatTheBuck 28716

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1 hour ago, HRSchenker said:

We need Washington to win and Florida State to lose. If that doesn't happen we're fucked.

The only calculation that matters is the last one. Undefeated conference champs go in first. 1-loss conference champs go in next. No 1-loss non-champ is going in over a 1-loss champ. tOSU got in last year because the PAC-12 champ had 2 losses. The loser of The Game (the B1G one, not the Ivy one) won’t get in over a 1-loss Big 12 champion Texas. Guaranteed. 

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TKthunder2

TKthunder2 4981

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35 minutes ago, Doc Sam Beckett said:

Lol at the Big 10/secsecsec favoritism....and yet, some of y'all still want Bama to win out so you can have a UGA/UT fight for fourth. You're fucking crazy for wanting that battle....fight the Pac or anyone else, but don't leave it to the committee to choose between 12-1 UGA and 12-1 Texas 

12-1 Big 12 Champion that beat Alabama in OOC

vs

12-1 non champion that lost to Alabama and played a weak ass OOC slate

Don’t be a pussy.

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Kwix

Kwix 2186

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2 hours ago, WhatTheBuck said:

The only calculation that matters is the last one. Undefeated conference champs go in first. 1-loss conference champs go in next. No 1-loss non-champ is going in over a 1-loss champ. tOSU got in last year because the PAC-12 champ had 2 losses. The loser of The Game (the B1G one, not the Ivy one) won’t get in over a 1-loss Big 12 champion Texas. Guaranteed. 

I think it's really this simple. 

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JBJ

JBJ 3649

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Posted
4 hours ago, gmr548 said:


Care to show your work on this? Because honestly at face value this reads like Message Board Geniuses.

Wyoming is a good G5 team. Potentially a top 10 G5 team if they had a separate poll. They are also a Mountain West also ran with two 20+ point conference losses under their belt. Them beating Texas Tech and Tech’s subsequent success in the Big 12 says more about Texas’s schedule than Alabama’s.

Look at Bama's schedule.  Wyoming is better than: MTSU, USF, MSU, Arkansas, Kentucky, Chattanooga, and Auburn.

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LateAughtsHorn

LateAughtsHorn 588

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10 hours ago, gmr548 said:

My initial reaction is that this is normal at this stage so I went and looked at historic CFP rankings.

Last year at this point there there were four unbeatens, 1-loss Clemson and USC, and a 2-loss LSU that had played its way into consideration. 2021 had unbeaten Georgia and Cincinnati plus six 1-loss P5 teams. Skipping 2020 bc COVID, 2019 had three unbeatens and six 1-loss P5 teams. 2018 had three P5 unbeatens, unbeaten UCF, and 5 1-loss P5 teams; and again a 2-loss LSU was hanging out in the top 7 for some reason.

I don't think there's anything particularly special about this year.

Pretty much. This is just our first time actually having a dog in the fight. 

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Beau Vine

Beau Vine 54008

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19 hours ago, Texas Wahoo said:

All of the Big Noon Kickoff People pick tOSU and Michigan to both make the CFP except for Urban Meyer, who picks both Oregon and Washington instead...

image.png.c8a1a83bb111ec314a8390c1a386e204.png

What am I missing here?  How the hell do both Michigan and tOSU get in?  If Michigan loses, they will literally have one "good" win on their resume.

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Beau Vine

Beau Vine 54008

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16 hours ago, Pescado_Rojo said:

The only way I could see Michigan sliding back in would be if Iowa pulled a rabbit out of their hat and beat OSU in the Big 10 title game. But I feel like if Michigan loses The Game, the committee might bury them given the controversy surrounding the program right now. Stick them down around 8-9 to make sure they can't sneak back in. 

That would be entirely justified given that they have only two wins over teams in the Top FIFTY.

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TKthunder2

TKthunder2 4981

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Posted
9 minutes ago, Beau Vine said:

What am I missing here?  How the hell do both Michigan and tOSU get in?  If Michigan loses, they will literally have one "good" win on their resume.

Michigan and Fox both are Big Ten properties as are Washington and Oregon and the Big Noon is a FOX show.

UGA, Bama, Texas, FSU, Louisville are full ESPN properties. No need to promote them more than necessary.

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Beau Vine

Beau Vine 54008

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14 hours ago, BigHornedLurker said:

The only way Oregon or Bama can get in over Texas is the eye test .

 

Oregon 

- plays a soft SOS, easy to look good playing puffs

- no significant ranked wins , lost to the only top ranked team on their schedule 

Both of these objections go away if the Ducks win their last two, so that makes your original statement bogus.

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fellside

fellside 1076

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Posted
20 hours ago, Texas Wahoo said:

All of the Big Noon Kickoff People pick tOSU and Michigan to both make the CFP except for Urban Meyer, who picks both Oregon and Washington instead...

image.png.c8a1a83bb111ec314a8390c1a386e204.png

These picks are so bad, I don't ever want to hear anyone on here talk about how great this show is again.

Not one person on a show dedicated solely to college football could come up with a theoretically feasible playoff scenario?

In Meyer's scenario, Oregon loses to Washington and gets the 4 spot with 2 losses? Everyone else imagines that the loser of Ohio State Michigan would be in ahead of an undefeated Washington or Florida State?

It's literally not possible for any of these playoff scenarios to happen. 

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blutow

blutow 222

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Posted
3 hours ago, Longboard Horn said:

Just win out and we'll be in the conversation. Bama won't get in once they lose to Georgia in the SEC title game. 

Yeah, I still like our chances if we win out. 

 

But any way you cut it, a Bama win against Georgia helps our chances (even if it means Bama jumps Texas after the win).  Bama winning improves the chances of a couple paths where we get in.  Bama losing only hurts our chances since our win will be devalued a bit.    

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LonghornSean

LonghornSean 3942

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, Beau Vine said:

What am I missing here?  How the hell do both Michigan and tOSU get in?  If Michigan loses, they will literally have one "good" win on their resume.

 

2 minutes ago, fellside said:

These picks are so bad, I don't ever want to hear anyone on here talk about how great this show is again.

Not one person on a show dedicated solely to college football could come up with a theoretically feasible playoff scenario?

In Meyer's scenario, Oregon loses to Washington and gets the 4 spot with 2 losses? Everyone else imagines that the loser of Ohio State Michigan would be in ahead of an undefeated Washington or Florida State?

It's literally not possible for any of these playoff scenarios to happen. 

The only explanation is that these are actually predictions for what the current rankings will be. 

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fellside

fellside 1076

Posted
Posted
Just now, LonghornSean said:

 

The only explanation is that these are actually predictions for what the current rankings will be. 

And Urban thought Michigan and Ohio State would share the #1 spot?

Maybe a producer didn't explain it to them correctly. Either way, trash.

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