THE College Football Playoff Rankings Thread [MICH,WASH,TEX,ALA]

[dcar00 14036]

6 minutes ago, The Dog said:

I agree that Oregon is going to clobber Washington and if we barely beat Okie Lite we have a problem. However, don't underestimate what we did to Tech last Friday - that's the Pac 12's best non conference win and it doesn't look very good. That said, Oregon's one loss was on the road to a team they would have just beat and we'd have no chance to rectify our loss to OU. 

So I understand why Oregon might get in over us should we both win. It's very close though and not the foregone conclusion everyone makes it out to be.

The other thing is I don't understand why everyone thinks Georgia is in no matter what. Their best win is at home over Ole Miss. Their non-conference schedule is a joke. They aren't getting the benefit of the doubt if they lose next week. (they probably beat Bama regardless so this is likely moot)

I don't think they are in no matter what but committee is going to want 2 time champ to have their shot(even if they blow their shot against Bama)

It would be good to have only conf champs in, considering the field is very strong and it is the last year of the 4 team but SECSECSEC bias is real*

*caveat - except when considering Texas' win against SECSECSEC Bama on the road.  

It will be funny seeing them spin our win against Bama as not as good as Oregon's win against Wash.

[Foosters 17734]

17 minutes ago, UTEE97 said:

H2H matters only if other things are equal. If Bama wins the SEC they would have a better SOS and the committee won't hesitate to put them above us. We are putting too much weight o H2H imo.

Wait, are you seeing this somewhere or is this just your opinion?

Because that seems backwards. We go to things like SOS, comparable opponents, margin of victory, etc., when we DON'T have a H2H to determine who's better.

Otherwise, you're arguing that the best way to determine who is a better team is not have the teams play, but to use other metrics. Or, similarly, the argument allows one to put forth that the winner of the NC game may not be the better team because the losing team had a harder SOS.

[mwaadeeb 1152]

21 minutes ago, Pancho said:

 

This was my argument last week and people got their balls in a tizzy. There are criteria they consider, and that does mean they have to abide by said criteria. The criteria they consider isn’t a rule or policy.

Essentially, they can do whatever the fuck they want. 

I argued with this response, because it's silly. The guidelines aren't lip service, they're guidelines. The may not be dispositive, but they are relevant. The committee will not just do whatever they want without looking at them. You can talk conspiracies all you want, but the members have an ethical duty (if not a good faith obligation or even a contractual mandate) to follow their own guidelines. Only a fool would stand up in front of their colleagues and just throw them out. Maybe one crooked asshole would be prepared to sacrifice their reputation for it, but not all of them. It's politics, essentially. They will at least make sure it's a toss up or close, based on their guidelines, before their biases come into play.

Edited November 26, 2023 by mwaadeeb

[oh_snap 694]

5 minutes ago, The Dog said:

The other thing is I don't understand why everyone thinks Georgia is in no matter what. Their best win is at home over Ole Miss. Their non-conference schedule is a joke. They aren't getting the benefit of the doubt if they lose next week. (they probably beat Bama regardless so this is likely moot)

They are a 2-time defending champion that has won something crazy like 45 out of their last 46 games. Yes, each season is different, but would be hard to leave them out.
Look, no one knows for certain what the committee will do… but as a Texas fan that has watched our possible avenues to the CFP get slimmer each week as we get chalky results, I personally think the bama beating uga scenario makes it even harder. No one knows for certain though because humans are involved, and anyone saying otherwise is just your typical message board tough guy. 

[UTEE97 3429]

1 minute ago, Foosters said:

Wait, are you seeing this somewhere or is this just your opinion?

Because that seems backwards. We go to things like SOS, comparable opponents, margin of victory, etc., when we DON'T have a H2H to determine who's better.

Otherwise, you're arguing that the best way to determine who is a better team is not have the teams play, but to use other metrics. Or, similarly, the argument allows one to put forth that the winner of the NC game may not be the better team because the losing team had a harder SOS.

I am looking at the below except from the CFP guidelines. They put SOS above H2H. Bama will have more ranked wins, higher quality loss, and better overall SOS if they were to beat UGA and won the SEC. I think they will be a shoe in.

[TexasEd 8064]

If we are left out I hope we play a 1 loss Georgia again or tOSU in the bowl game. 

[WBT 20422]

32 minutes ago, billfromlaketravis said:

Any chance Iowa knocks off Michigan? That defense is very, very good. 

It will be like the Penn State Iowa game but worse

[mdmost 42865]

2 minutes ago, TexasEd said:

If we are left out I hope we play a 1 loss Georgia again or tOSU in the bowl game. 

Nah. We're going to get a boring matchup like Mizzou in the Cotton. 

[Foosters 17734]

3 minutes ago, UTEE97 said:

I am looking at the below except from the CFP guidelines. They put SOS above H2H. Bama will have more ranked wins, higher quality loss, and better overall SOS if they were to beat UGA and won the SEC. I think they will be a shoe in.

I don't read that as the criteria being listed in order of importance, but it certainly does allow them room to decide that SOS is more important than H2H

[WBT 20422]

23 minutes ago, Pancho said:

 

This was my argument last week and people got their balls in a tizzy. There are criteria they consider, and that does mean they have to abide by said criteria. The criteria they consider isn’t a rule or policy.

Essentially, they can do whatever the fuck they want. 

It was made clear the very first year when they put the big brand in over the small Texas religious schools

[USNALonghorn 5024]

2 minutes ago, TexasEd said:

If we are left out I hope we play a 1 loss Georgia again or tOSU in the bowl game. 

A demoralized “didn’t want to be there” Georgia would be entertaining.

[Pancho 44487]

2 minutes ago, mwaadeeb said:

I argued with this response, because it's silly. You can talk conspiracies all you want, but the committee members have an ethical duty (if not a good faith obligation or even a contractual mandate) to follow their own guidelines. Only a fool would stand up in front of their colleagues and throw out the guidelines. And maybe there's one, but not all them, who's prepared to sacrifice their reputation for it. It's politics, essentially. They will at least make sure it's a toss up or close before their biases come into play. The guidelines aren't lip service, they're guidelines. The may not be dispositive, but they are relevant. The committee will not just do whatever they want without looking at them. 

 

The problem with your lapse in logic is no one here is stating they believe there is a conspiracy. Only you are thinking that. 

If you think what I wrote means I believe there is a conspiracy, then you're a fucking idiot. 

If Texas doesn't get in, I will not believe it to be because of a conspiracy. It will be because of subjectiveness--that, in and of itself--does not imply conspiracy. 

[utee94 15746]

1 minute ago, WBT said:

It was made clear the very first year when they put the big brand in over the small Texas religious schools

Exactly.  A choice that was obviously made for the sake of television ratings.

[WBT 20422]

4 minutes ago, mdmost said:

Nah. We're going to get a boring matchup like Mizzou in the Cotton. 

anywhere but fucking jerryworld again

[ztejas 43266]

50 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

I have a kid at Oregon. I watch a lot of PAC-12 games.  I also grew up a Horn fan. 
 

If Oregon does what I think they are going to do on Friday, which is put the wood to a Washington team that had every break go their way in the first game, plus Dan Lanning unnecessarily going for it on 4th down and not doing th easy football thing (something Texas fans also have suffered under Sarkisian), and they win by 2+  TDs, y’all will need to absolute demolish Ok. St. to be in the conversation (barring a Michigan, FSU, or Georgia loss). A low scoring single digit win isn’t going to do the trick. It just isn’t. The committee is not going to jump you over an Oregon team that definitively beats an undefeated top 5 team in the CCG.

Rage about it all you want. I will completely give you that the beauty contest is unfair and bullshit. It’s an excellent argument for going to 8 teams. Lanning has been anticipating this and has been very slow to pull starters in blowouts.But be realistic. If it comes down to a beauty contest, your win against Ok. St has to look like Tech and not Iowa State. 

Now maybe Penix will go ham and Lanning will shit the bed, but we are different from A&M in being rational about who we are and what we are looking at 

[89Horn 1492]

26 minutes ago, Pancho said:

 

This was my argument last week and people got their balls in a tizzy. There are criteria they consider, and that does mean they have to abide by said criteria. The criteria they consider isn’t a rule or policy.

Essentially, they can do whatever the fuck they want. 

Exactly.  It’s as easy as “We considered X, but ultimately though we determined that Y was the stronger factor in putting Z school in the playoffs.

Reporter: But, why?

Committee lead:  Because fuck you.  That’s why.

[Pancho 44487]

8 minutes ago, mdmost said:

Nah. We're going to get a boring matchup like Mizzou in the Cotton. 

 

I think Missouri is headed to the Peach Bowl

We would get something like Ohio State or Tulane in the Cotton Bowl, most likely Tulane. 

[Codaxx 5602]

56 minutes ago, blutow said:

That would be great for Texas, but how does bama jump Oregon and Texas after barely surviving a terrible Auburn team while Texas and Oregon had strong games?  

Because both have much better SOS. That is part of the criteria. Based on their criteria it should probably look like this: OSU, Texas, Bama, and then Oregon.. People would freak out about OSU being the  top 1 loss team, but if the others won a championship they would jump OSU the next week based on the criteria. 

[mwaadeeb 1152]

33 minutes ago, Pancho said:

 

The problem with your lapse in logic is no one here is stating they believe there is a conspiracy. Only you are thinking that. 

If you think what I wrote means I believe there is a conspiracy, then you're a fucking idiot. 

If Texas doesn't get in, I will not believe it to be because of a conspiracy. It will be because of subjectiveness--that, in and of itself--does not imply conspiracy. 

If you think the committee will ignore their own guidelines to do what they want, you're believing in a conspiracy amongst the board to ignore their own guidelines, since they would have to agree. I'm sorry you can't see that, and that you would embarrass yourself by calling the wrong person an idiot. But forget the "conspiracy" angle. The larger point is that you are wrong, you have always been wrong, and you continue to be wrong. If you had ever served the board of a decent sized non-profit, you would know that.

Edited November 26, 2023 by mwaadeeb

[Pancho 44487]

Just now, 89Horn said:

Exactly.  It’s as easy as “We considered X, but ultimately though we determined that Y was the stronger factor in putting Z school in the playoffs.

 

 

 

That's exactly what consideration means: "yes, we took that into consideration (we thought about it) but ultimately we though something else was stronger"

[mdmost 42865]

2 minutes ago, Pancho said:

 

I think Missouri is headed to the Peach Bowl

We would get something like Ohio State or Tulane in the Cotton Bowl, most likely Tulane. 

I'd imagine the Fiesta will get a Rose Bowl type matchup with Washington/Oregon and Ohio State. Cotton Bowl gets a Sugar Bowl matchup of SEC/Big 12. I'd love to be wrong and not have to play an SEC team since we're about to go do that. Also saw Penn State as an option. That's fine. Us drawing the no-win scenario of Tulane is less than ideal but everyone will be playing minus some of the seniors with first round potential like Sweat. 

Edited November 26, 2023 by mdmost

[dcar00 14036]

3 minutes ago, mwaadeeb said:

If you think the committee will ignore their own guidelines to do what they want, you're believing in a conspiracy amongst the board to ignore their own guidelines, since they would have to agree. I'm sorry you can't see that, and that you would embarrass yourself by calling the wrong person an idiot. But forget the "conspiracy" angle. The larger point is that you are wrong. If you had ever served on a non-profit board, you would know that.

why is Oregon still over Texas?

[Pancho 44487]

3 minutes ago, mwaadeeb said:

If you think the committee will ignore their own guidelines to do what they want, you're believing in a conspiracy amongst the board to ignore their own guidelines, since they would have to agree. I'm sorry you can't see that, and that you would embarrass yourself by calling the wrong person an idiot. But forget the "conspiracy" angle. The larger point is that you are wrong. If you had ever served on a non-profit board, you would know that.

 

I don't have to have served on a non-profit board lol. What the fuck? Is that your criteria for determining how everyone here is wrong and you are right? You need help. 

No one is saying the committee will ignore their guidelines. The committee will consider their considerations and then make a decision. You're just not comprehending, and that's okay. You don't understand--just admit it.  

[Biff Tannen 45499]

Well this thread has gone to hell.

[hookem48 4631]

20 minutes ago, TexasEd said:

If we are left out I hope we play a 1 loss Georgia again or tOSU in the bowl game. 

I'll feel like half the players at bowl games, I won't give a shit.

[idigTexas 2266]

27 minutes ago, oh_snap said:

They are a 2-time defending champion that has won something crazy like 45 out of their last 46 games. Yes, each season is different, but would be hard to leave them out.
Look, no one knows for certain what the committee will do… but as a Texas fan that has watched our possible avenues to the CFP get slimmer each week as we get chalky results, I personally think the bama beating uga scenario makes it even harder. No one knows for certain though because humans are involved, and anyone saying otherwise is just your typical message board tough guy. 

If they want a chance to prove that they are the best team in the country, then they should show that they are the best team in their conference by beating Alabama...like we did.  Hell, they won't even have to do it in Tuscaloosa.  

[mwaadeeb 1152]

11 minutes ago, Pancho said:

 

I don't have to have served on a non-profit board lol. What the fuck? Is that your criteria for determining how everyone here is wrong and you are right? You need help. 

No one is saying the committee will ignore their guidelines. The committee will consider their considerations and then make a decision. You're just not comprehending, and that's okay. You don't understand--just admit it.  

You've said over and over again that the committee will throw out their guidelines and do whatever they want. Don't lie. 

[blutow 222]

4 minutes ago, mwaadeeb said:

You've said over and over again that the committee will throw out their guidelines and do whatever they want. Don't lie. 

I'm not sure anyone is saying they are totally ignoring that stuff, just that guidelines are squishy at best.  

[mwaadeeb 1152]

Just now, blutow said:

I'm not sure anyone is saying they are totally ignoring that stuff, just that guidelines are squishy at best.  

Yes they are saying that. I agree it's squishy when past obvious by the guidelines.

[Pancho 44487]

8 minutes ago, mwaadeeb said:

You've said over and over again that the committee will throw out their guidelines and do whatever they want. Don't lie. 

No I didn’t. I never once used the words “throw” “out” or “guidelines”

You seriously do not comprehend this, and that’s fine. 

 

I said they must consider certain criteria because that’s exactly what it says on their website. That doesn't’ mean they have to abide by that. It just means they must take it under consideration. 

[LonghornSean 3942]

6 minutes ago, mwaadeeb said:

You've said over and over again that the committee will throw out their guidelines and do whatever they want. Don't lie. 

Yes they have guidelines, but it’s not like they return a grading rubric after they are done. They send out their top 25 and give generic and contradictory answers to Rece Davis each week about why they ranked certain teams where. In the end they will rank the teams how they see fit, including the posted guidelines, but it’s really just a black box of whatever reasoning they want to justify how they view the teams.

[Codaxx 5602]

12 minutes ago, LonghornSean said:

Yes they have guidelines, but it’s not like they return a grading rubric after they are done. They send out their top 25 and give generic and contradictory answers to Rece Davis each week about why they ranked certain teams where. In the end they will rank the teams how they see fit, including the posted guidelines, but it’s really just a black box of whatever reasoning they want to justify how they view the teams.

I want to see FSU lose #1 and Bama win #2. Texas will need Bama to win to boost its resume.

[Jewish Wang 111]

I like how “guidelines” are etched-in-stone “policy”, and that the Committee’s past actions (and those of each poll, by the way) elevating UO and now tOSU above us somehow should be ignored. This thread has gone full Aggy. 

[mdmost 42865]

1 minute ago, Codaxx said:

I want to see FSU lose #1 and Bama win #2. Texas will need Bama to win to boost its resume.

It's more likely in your scenario that Georgia goes in. "Well they're lone loss was late in the season to Bama and Texas got Bama when it wasn't the same Bama team". We only need FSU to lose and us to beat oSu to be in. Form needs to hold on everything else save Iowa pulling a miracle. 

[VaLonghorn99 340]

Big 12 still put the hurt on the Horn's by denying them style points through their biased officiating - pure dishonest losers. Texas sitting behind two 1 loss teams at present - Oregon and tOSU.

[JBJ 3649]

I don't want to see people in game threads rooting for the wrong team.  This is what we want in order of importance:

1) Texas win

.....

11) Louisville win

12) Alabama win

13) Iowa win

14) Oregon win (maximum chaos), unless one of the above is an upset, then Washington win (to eliminate Oregon)

---

I'm interested to see where the committee puts Ohio State this week.

Also, this week's and previous weeks rankings are meaningless wrt to exact order.  The committee has shown that they will buckle down for the final rankings and move teams around as they see fit.

Edited November 26, 2023 by JBJ

[dec3169 501]

1 hour ago, TexasEd said:

If we are left out I hope we play a 1 loss Georgia again or tOSU in the bowl game. 

I doubt we'd see Georgia since we will play them in conference in 2024.  SEC will want to hype that game because of the previous game.

[TexEx15 17487]

Adding additional detail to my previous version of this post.

Georgia win. Michigan win. Washington Win. Texas win. Florida State loss.

[Codaxx 5602]

9 minutes ago, mdmost said:

It's more likely in your scenario that Georgia goes in. "Well they're lone loss was late in the season to Bama and Texas got Bama when it wasn't the same Bama team". We only need FSU to lose and us to beat oSu to be in. Form needs to hold on everything else save Iowa pulling a miracle. 

The committee could make a completely ridiculous ruling. I can’t stop that. There is 1 known in all of this, Texas won’t jump an undefeated team. That would lead most logical people to root against all the undefeated teams. If it comes to a beauty pageant beating the SEC champ would be helpful. 

[dec3169 501]

53 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

why is Oregon still over Texas?

Let's see what happens on Tuesday.  AP means nothing at this point, other than giving everyone something to look at and speculate.  CFP commission doesn't have to do anything with AP rankings.

[dcar00 14036]

Just now, dec3169 said:

Let's see what happens on Tuesday.  AP means nothing at this point, other than giving everyone something to look at and speculate.  CFP commission doesn't have to do anything with AP rankings.

I'm not talking about AP Ranking.  I know it doesn't matter. why is Oregon over Texas in the playoff ranking right now(as of the latest ranking)?

[wood 11166]

2 hours ago, blutow said:

That would be great for Texas, but how does bama jump Oregon and Texas after barely surviving a terrible Auburn team while Texas and Oregon had strong games?  

2 hours ago, Hagbard Celine said:

eye test

How the hell does Bama look better in any 'eye test' (one of the most idiotic aspects of this bullshit btw) than Texas does? There is simply no remotely reasonable rationale for putting Bama ahead of Texas. 

Edited November 26, 2023 by wood

[Make em eat Taco Bell 1549]

pathetic Ohio State is ahead of us in the latest AP ranking.   That OU loss cost a national title and they won't let us forget it. 2023 was our year with roster stacked with NFL upperclassmen who are gone.   Gonna miss Sanders/Worthy/Sweat the most. 

[Rockethorn1978 6061]

2 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

I'm not talking about AP Ranking.  I know it doesn't matter. why is Oregon over Texas in the playoff ranking right now(as of the latest ranking)?

Because the committee puts more weight in who you lose to than who you beat.

they lost to a undefeated Washington and we lost to a 2 loss ou. If we don’t shit the bed in October this doesn’t matter.

[Rockethorn1978 6061]

1 minute ago, Make em eat Taco Bell said:

pathetic Ohio State is ahead of us in the latest AP ranking.   That OU loss cost a national title and they won't let us forget it. 2023 was our year with roster stacked with NFL upperclassmen who are gone.   Gonna miss Sanders/Worthy/Sweat the most. 

Yea they lost to an undefeated Michigan and we lost to a 2 loss ou. Ap voters and the committee look at losses more than wins no matter how many times they say “the body of work”. 

[dec3169 501]

3 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

I'm not talking about AP Ranking.  I know it doesn't matter. why is Oregon over Texas in the playoff ranking right now(as of the latest ranking)?

Yeah we'd need a crystal ball to figure that one out.  It makes no sense.  What's worse is they may not move Oregon this week with Oregon/Washington looming for the CCG.

[Jewish Wang 111]

7 minutes ago, dec3169 said:

Let's see what happens on Tuesday.  AP means nothing at this point, other than giving everyone something to look at and speculate.  CFP commission doesn't have to do anything with AP rankings.

CFP will have Top 8 exactly as AP and Coaches. We might be above tOSU, but doubt it, and there is zero reason to move us ahead of Oregon. 

Edited November 26, 2023 by Jewish Wang

[Hook1997 5290]

I’ve seen a lot of bowl projections being us vs Tulane if left out.  That’s terribly underwhelming if it happens.   

[dec3169 501]

2 minutes ago, Rockethorn1978 said:

Because the committee puts more weight in who you lose to than who you beat.

they lost to a undefeated Washington and we lost to a 2 loss ou. If we don’t shit the bed in October this doesn’t matter.

When they ranked Oregon above us we lost to an undefeated ou.  It makes more sense now than it did then.

[Dahobbs 17449]

1 minute ago, Hook1997 said:

I’ve seen a lot of bowl projections being us vs Tulane if left out.  That’s terribly underwhelming if it happens.   

Lol, there is zero chance that happens.