THE College Football Playoff Rankings Thread [MICH,WASH,TEX,ALA]

[blutow 238]

2 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

in a 12 team playoff we will be arguing over who gets top 4 to get a bye but that's it.  9-12 are about as likely to win a NC as aggy.

I hope when it goes to 12 that P5 conference champs are automatic.  Sure, you'll end up with some 2-3 loss champs that win the conference in an upset, but that makes things interesting when there are 12 spots.  Having a guaranteed path based on results would be nice and then the rest of the spots can continue with the magic 8 ball committee BS.  

[victory88 5,676]

2 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

They also see middling Texas victories against KSU, ISU, TCU, and Houston where the Longhorns allowed overmatched opponents to stubbornly hang around. The committee isn’t going to consider injuries.  And yes that’s exactly bullshit beauty contest stuff.   
 

I don’t disagree with any of your metrics, but I’m just saying that there is a very strong chance that if UO beats Washington bad on Friday, they won’t care and the Ducks will make the playoffs. Particularly if Texas doesn’t blow the doors off the pokes. And several of us on this thread are trying to prepare the fan base for that.  But I’ve already been told to stfu. So here we are. 
 

 

There was nothing middling about beating a ranked KSU, defending big 12 championship team with our back up QB.  People are talking about Oregon’s big win against Oregon state lmao.  KSU would smoke Oregon state.

[dcar00 14,602]

It is really going to be funny if Texas, Mich, Wash, FSU, Bama all win this weekend.  which is a very possible scenario.  will expose all the bullshit for all to see.

[blutow 238]

5 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

The committee isn’t going to consider injuries.

On the CFP show a couple weeks ago, the committee dude specifically brought up injury considerations a couple times in a short interview.  Of course, he didn't clarify how they are considered, but I thought it was interesting that he went out of his way to mention it a couple times.  So they are are least talking about it.  

[Codaxx 5,943]

3 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

They also see middling Texas victories against KSU, ISU, TCU, and Houston where the Longhorns allowed overmatched opponents to stubbornly hang around. The committee isn’t going to consider injuries.  And yes that’s exactly bullshit beauty contest stuff.   
 

I don’t disagree with any of your metrics, but I’m just saying that there is a very strong chance that if UO beats Washington bad on Friday, they won’t care and the Ducks will make the playoffs. Particularly if Texas doesn’t blow the doors off the pokes. And several of us on this thread are trying to prepare the fan base for that.  But I’ve already been told to stfu. So here we are. 
 

 

It’s true, but encouraging poor scheduling is terrible for College football fans and the game. Here is SOS currently 

undefeated teams:

1. Michigan (sos 36)
2. Washington ( 46)
3. FSU (56)
4. Georgia (59)

1 loss:
5. OSU (6)
6. Texas (13)
7. Bama (31)
8. Oregon (61)

Committee may completely reverse the SOS rankings of 1 loss teams, which is pretty crazy. 

[blutow 238]

4 minutes ago, victory88 said:

There was nothing middling about beating a ranked KSU, defending big 12 championship team with our back up QB.  People are talking about Oregon’s big win against Oregon state lmao.  KSU would smoke Oregon state.

KSU losing yesterday didn't help..., likely lost one of our ranked wins.  

[The_Great_Hornsby 3,345]

Just now, dcar00 said:

It is really going to be funny if Texas, Mich, Wash, FSU, Bama all win this weekend.  which is a very possible scenario.  will expose all the bullshit for all to see.

I think if that happens, Texas goes over Bama. So long as we look dominant against OSU (which we should). There are consequences to losing games and Bama lost to us head to head in their house. We 1000% should go in front of them and the SEC should be blocked out of the playoff. This isn't the ideal scenario, I would much prefer FSU to lose, but if they do not, this is our next best shot. 

 

To be honest though, Bama looked like steaming shit against Auburn and I expect them to lose by double digits to Georgia. So I think this will all be moot. For us to get in, we are going to need Louisville or Iowa (lol) to win. Full stop.  

[dcar00 14,602]

1 minute ago, victory88 said:

There was nothing middling about beating a ranked KSU, defending big 12 championship team with our back up QB.  People are talking about Oregon’s big win against Oregon state lmao.  KSU would smoke Oregon state.

too funny seeing Oregon State being ranked 21 in the AP.  highest 4 loss team playing in a shitty conference, who played UC Davis, San Jose St, and San Diego State OOC.

[dcar00 14,602]

3 minutes ago, blutow said:

On the CFP show a couple weeks ago, the committee dude specifically brought up injury considerations a couple times in a short interview.  Of course, he didn't clarify how they are considered, but I thought it was interesting that he went out of his way to mention it a couple times.  So they are are least talking about it.  

beating Louisville with the backup will certainly be enough for an undefeated FSU.

[The_Great_Hornsby 3,345]

1 minute ago, dcar00 said:

too funny seeing Oregon State being ranked 21 in the AP.  highest 4 loss team playing in a shitty conference, who played UC Davis, San Jose St, and San Diego State OOC.

AP voters: 

[Pimphand 6,050]

Texas has no way in....

Michigan is going to beat Iowa who cannot score

tOSU is already ahead of us and cannot lose anymore games

The SEC champ is going regardless of who the victor is and the PAC champ is going regardless of who the victor is.

At this point I want FSU to go to keep bitch ass Ohio State out.

Edited November 26, 2023 by Pimphand

[The_Great_Hornsby 3,345]

Just now, Pimphand said:

Texas has no way in....

Michigan is going to beat Purdue who cannot score

tOSU is already ahead of us and cannot lose anymore games

The SEC champ is going regardless of who the victor is and the PAC champ is going regardless of who the victor is.

At this point I want FSU to go to keep bitch ass Ohio State out.

This take is so bad it hurts. I mean jesus christ, you didnt even get the fucking matchups right this week. Oh, and OSU wont go ahead of us. lol dumbass

[Rockethorn1978 6,153]

Do you really need to schedule OOC tough opponents when you’re playing Georgia, ou, auburn, Tennessee, etc? I wouldn’t. 

[Pimphand 6,050]

And this is why you don't go to Dallas to play tiddlywinks against the bitchass Sooners. I hope this experience of getting locked out burns this teams ass for next season.

[The_Great_Hornsby 3,345]

2 minutes ago, Rockethorn1978 said:

Do you really need to schedule OOC tough opponents when you’re playing Georgia, ou, auburn, Tennessee, etc? I wouldn’t. 

Yeah, this, I think going forward we should look for tune up games from easy to moderate difficulty. Stay away from Texas vs Michigan type games because they clearly dont mean shit. 

Edited November 26, 2023 by The_Great_Hornsby

[TXpride 558]

Easiest path is an FSU loss, which I think is about a 50/50 proposition. Bama winning (say 20%) or an Iowa win (<5%) probably puts us in as well. So despite us getting no help all season, I still think we have a better chance of making it than not.

[blutow 238]

3 minutes ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

This take is so bad it hurts. I mean jesus christ, you didnt even get the fucking matchups right this week. Oh, and OSU wont go ahead of us. lol dumbass

Don't stop him, he's on a roll....

[wood 11,576]

15 minutes ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

Then why even play the game lol. We absolutely should be ahead of them and that is their cross to bear. Just like we fucked up losing to OU, they fucked up losing to us. 

Exactly. If we're going to be punished for losing to ou sucks, then Bama needs to get the same for losing to us.

[89Horn 1,621]

“Ranking football teams is an art, not a science.”

[dcar00 14,602]

7 minutes ago, Codaxx said:

It’s true, but encouraging poor scheduling is terrible for College football fans and the game. Here is SOS currently 

undefeated teams:

1. Michigan (sos 36)
2. Washington ( 46)
3. FSU (56)
4. Georgia (59)

1 loss:
5. OSU (6)
6. Texas (13)
7. Bama (31)
8. Oregon (61)

Committee may completely reverse the SOS rankings of 1 loss teams, which is pretty crazy. 

Reporter to Royal - "coach, how do you win a national championship"

Royal - "first Notre Dame has to lose"

what if our one loss was a close loss to Bama and not OU?  It wouldn't matter, so why take the chance?   what is OU's SOS?

[TexArcher 38,412]

3 minutes ago, Pimphand said:

Texas has no way in....

Michigan is going to beat Purdue who cannot score

tOSU is already ahead of us and cannot lose anymore games

The SEC champ is going regardless of who the victor is and the PAC champ is going regardless of who the victor is.

At this point I want FSU to go to keep bitch ass Ohio State out.

Uhh, we have a chance to win a conference championship game against a ranked opponent while tOSU sits idle.

We need to win, and we need FSU or Michigan to lose, and bonus points if Bama doesn't beat Georgia 31-30 or something ridiculous.  We should jump tOSU and the loser of Oregon/Washington as long as we take care of our own business.  We really need Louisville to beat FSU -- that should get us there.

[Codaxx 5,943]

1 minute ago, dcar00 said:

Reporter to Royal - "coach, how do you win a national championship"

Royal - "first Notre Dame has to lose"

what if our one loss was a close loss to Bama and not OU?  It wouldn't matter, so why take the chance?   what is OU's SOS?

50 

[wood 11,576]

16 minutes ago, blutow said:

I hope when it goes to 12 that P5 conference champs are automatic.  Sure, you'll end up with some 2-3 loss champs that win the conference in an upset, but that makes things interesting when there are 12 spots.  Having a guaranteed path based on results would be nice and then the rest of the spots can continue with the magic 8 ball committee BS.  

Don't the top 6 ranked conference champs get auto bids? That's always or at the very least almost always gonna include the P5 champs.

[dcar00 14,602]

3 minutes ago, wood said:

Exactly. If we're going to be punished for losing to ou sucks, then Bama needs to get the same for losing to us.

SEC, Saban adjustments/coaching. 

[bullet 1,605]

35 minutes ago, Horn of Gabriel said:

The gravity of the beauty contest argument means a lot less when it's two teams arguing over who should be #12 or 13.  The bowl system was the ultimate beauty contest, pining for those days is putting the car into reverse and mashing down on the gas.

If we get left out behind 4 unbeaten teams I don't really have a problem with that, even if I think we are better than Washington or FSU.

If we get left out behind Oregon who had a lot weaker SOS I would be very unhappy.  If somehow we got left out behind a 1 loss Ohio St., Michigan or Alabama, then its time to throw out the committee.

[dcar00 14,602]

2 minutes ago, Codaxx said:

50 

thanks.  what site do you use for the SOS?

[Rockethorn1978 6,153]

5 minutes ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

Yeah, this, I think going forward we should look for tune up games from easy to moderate difficulty. Stay away from Texas vs Michigan type games because they clearly dont mean shit. 

Yea with Georgia and bama and auburn and then throw in rivalry games of ou and aggy I wouldn’t schedule anyone else. If the committee wanted those games and awarded Texas for beating bama by almost 2 tds instead of Oregon impressive last second win over tech then we should schedule those games. But they don’t. 

[dcar00 14,602]

8 minutes ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

Yeah, this, I think going forward we should look for tune up games from easy to moderate difficulty. Stay away from Texas vs Michigan type games because they clearly dont mean shit. 

This is the SEC way...

[Hank_Hill 18,994]

13 minutes ago, Pimphand said:

Texas has no way in....

Michigan is going to beat Iowa who cannot score

tOSU is already ahead of us and cannot lose anymore games

The SEC champ is going regardless of who the victor is and the PAC champ is going regardless of who the victor is.

At this point I want FSU to go to keep bitch ass Ohio State out.

Showing your ass once again. Thinking OSU not playing in their CCG is a good thing for them. Lollllll

[Codaxx 5,943]

3 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

thanks.  what site do you use for the SOS?

https://www.espn.com/college-football/fpi/_/view/resume
 

I just used that, since ESPN seems to be at the center of anything college football

[Jewish Wang 111]

To the point about Oregon beating UW and my argument that that could come back to haunt us. Look at this web site. It’s literally the only scenario generator I can find, since 538 stopped doing it, which is shocking. They have their own rankings, which ranks us more favorably, and predict how committee will vote. I have no idea how legitimate this site is and I’m looking for resources. Interestingly, they have Oregon, FSU, Texas and tOSU at 4-7 come Tuesday:

https://playoffpredictor.com/currentPredictedRankings.php

I fooled around with 2 scenarios - both with FSU / Bama losing and UM winning, and 1 each with UW/Oregon winning.  With UW winning, we’re in.  With Oregon winning, we’re out  

 

Edited November 26, 2023 by Jewish Wang

[dcar00 14,602]

Louisville is really going to have it stacked against them.  They are going to have beat FSU and the stripes.  big money on the line.

[bullet 1,605]

13 minutes ago, Pimphand said:

Texas has no way in....

Michigan is going to beat Iowa who cannot score

tOSU is already ahead of us and cannot lose anymore games

The SEC champ is going regardless of who the victor is and the PAC champ is going regardless of who the victor is.

At this point I want FSU to go to keep bitch ass Ohio State out.

BS.  We win and FSU loses and we are in.  Ohio St. has almost no chance.  They will be behind Michigan, the SEC champ and the Pac 12 champ, no matter what.  Texas wins and they are out.  FSU wins and they are out.  They may be behind Georgia if UGA loses.

[Sgt Hulk 14,092]

This thread is gonna be a fun read next week 

[blutow 238]

3 minutes ago, bullet said:

If we get left out behind 4 unbeaten teams I don't really have a problem with that, even if I think we are better than Washington or FSU.

If we get left out behind Oregon who had a lot weaker SOS I would be very unhappy.  If somehow we got left out behind a 1 loss Ohio St., Michigan or Alabama, then its time to throw out the committee.

+1 on this.  As much as I think we are clearly better than FSU with their backup QB, if they win next week they should be in.  I give them credit for scheduling LSU even though LSU sucks this year.  

[dcar00 14,602]

one thing Texas has going for it is we prevent potential rematches.

[bullet 1,605]

4 minutes ago, Codaxx said:

https://www.espn.com/college-football/fpi/_/view/resume
 

I just used that, since ESPN seems to be at the center of anything college football

Sagarin SOS:

Washington 26

Michigan 55

Georgia 56

FSU 66

Texas 2

Alabama 15

Ohio St. 31

Oregon 52

ESPN's FPI is a total crock.

 

[Hornius Emeritus 12,496]

12 minutes ago, Sgt Hulk said:

This thread is gonna be a fun read next week 

Fortunately, I have faith in my fellow Surly posters that, by the time next Saturday rolls around, we'll have figured out exactly what's going to happen and, when it does, agree on why it happened, then make cool, rational projections based on that agreement.

 

Edited November 26, 2023 by Hornius Emeritus

[dcar00 14,602]

9 minutes ago, bullet said:

Sagarin SOS:

Washington 26

Michigan 55

Georgia 56

FSU 66

Texas 2

Alabama 15

Ohio St. 31

Oregon 52

ESPN's FPI is a total crock.

 

FSU at 66 LoL.  

[UTEE97 3,768]

40 minutes ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

Then why even play the game lol. We absolutely should be ahead of them and that is their cross to bear. Just like we fucked up losing to OU, they fucked up losing to us. 

OU dropped below us after they lost to Kansas even though they had the same record as us and won the H2H. Why do you think that is? Perhaps other games matter too? The committee considers a lot of stuff including H2H but it's not always the deciding factor.

[blutow 238]

3 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

one thing Texas has going for it is we prevent potential rematches.

Sort of.  The only potential rematch left on the table with any decent probability is Bama vs. Texas (and the chance of that is still pretty small).  But yeah, the "immediate" rematches we've seen in the past aren't gonna happen this year unless it's total chaos.  tOSU already had their "playoff" game and UGA will have it this weekend.  There's a good chance that tOSU will be ranked above us on Tuesday (and people will lose their minds), but that's pending until champs being determined the following weekend.     

[UTEE97 3,768]

This is what I am hoping the committee would choose as well. 

 

 

[gmr548 16,635]

I’ll say I’m coming around to the idea that Texas could jump Oregon if - and only if - Alabama beats Georgia. It would be hard to keep Alabama’s body of work out of the top four there and perhaps the increased value of Texas’s win at Bama vaults them over Oregon, who could be the one left holding the bag due to lower SOS.

[Codaxx 5,943]

17 minutes ago, bullet said:

Sagarin SOS:

Washington 26

Michigan 55

Georgia 56

FSU 66

Texas 2

Alabama 15

Ohio St. 31

Oregon 52

ESPN's FPI is a total crock.

 

Either way you cut it, Oregon is a huge outlier among the 1 loss teams 

 

I am not sure Sagarin is up to date. Michigan looks a low after OSU and PSU in back to back weeks 

[gmr548 16,635]

There was nothing middling about beating a ranked KSU, defending big 12 championship team with our back up QB.  People are talking about Oregon’s big win against Oregon state lmao.  KSU would smoke Oregon state.

No they wouldn’t.

[Hmbre97 6,333]

26 minutes ago, Jewish Wang said:

To the point about Oregon beating UW and my argument that that could come back to haunt us. Look at this web site. It’s literally the only scenario generator I can find, since 538 stopped doing it, which is shocking. They have their own rankings, which ranks us more favorably, and predict how committee will vote. I have no idea how legitimate this site is and I’m looking for resources. Interestingly, they have Oregon, FSU, Texas and tOSU at 4-7 come Tuesday:

https://playoffpredictor.com/currentPredictedRankings.php

I fooled around with 2 scenarios - both with FSU / Bama losing and UM winning, and 1 each with UW/Oregon winning.  With UW winning, we’re in.  With Oregon winning, we’re out  

 

You can throw whatever prediction this site makes straight into the garbage. 

 

 

Edited November 26, 2023 by Hmbre97

[Codaxx 5,943]

Just now, gmr548 said:

I’ll say I’m coming around to the idea that Texas could jump Oregon if - and only if - Alabama beats Georgia. It would be hard to keep Alabama’s body of work out of the top four there and perhaps the increased value of Texas’s win at Bama vaults them over Oregon, who could be the one left holding the bag due to lower SOS.

That has always been my thinking. Texas could still get screwed, but that is best possible resume for Texas. The best possible thing for Texas is multiple undefeated teams lose next weekend 

[Biff Tannen 45,763]

2 hours ago, 89Horn said:

Look, it really is not that difficult.  A “guideline” is a general recommendation.  It’s not a requirement.  See the clip below from Pirates of the Caribbean for help and understanding. Go to the 25 second mark.
 

Here are two hypothetical examples of the use of a “guideline” and mandatory, no exceptions criteria.  See if you can figure out which is which.
 

In making its selection determination -

the committee considers whether a one loss candidate school is its conference champion in comparison to one or more one loss candidate schools that are not their respective conference champions.

compare with

the committee shall select a one loss conference champion candidate school over a one loss non-conference champion candidate school.

I can’t break it down any simpler.

 

[gmr548 16,635]

To the point about Oregon beating UW and my argument that that could come back to haunt us. Look at this web site. It’s literally the only scenario generator I can find, since 538 stopped doing it, which is shocking. They have their own rankings, which ranks us more favorably, and predict how committee will vote. I have no idea how legitimate this site is and I’m looking for resources. Interestingly, they have Oregon, FSU, Texas and tOSU at 4-7 come Tuesday:
https://playoffpredictor.com/currentPredictedRankings.php
I fooled around with 2 scenarios - both with FSU / Bama losing and UM winning, and 1 each with UW/Oregon winning.  With UW winning, we’re in.  With Oregon winning, we’re out  
 

Honestly, if UW-Oregon is another last possession/play type finish with Oregon in the right side of it this time, and the rest of the ganes go as outlined, I do think that is logically consistent from where their rankings are likely to be this week. And yet I think there’s zero chance 12-1 Washington gets in over Texas.

What a dumb sport lol

[dcar00 14,602]

10 minutes ago, blutow said:

Sort of.  The only potential rematch left on the table with any decent probability is Bama vs. Texas (and the chance of that is still pretty small).  But yeah, the "immediate" rematches we've seen in the past aren't gonna happen this year unless it's total chaos.  tOSU already had their "playoff" game and UGA will have it this weekend.  There's a good chance that tOSU will be ranked above us on Tuesday (and people will lose their minds), but that's pending until champs being determined the following weekend.     

sorry should have said immediate in conf rematches.  yes there is a chance of both Texas and Bama making it but with all the smoke around, well Bama of Sept is not Bama of Dec that rematch shouldn't matter.  Although the Bama miracle to beat Auburn should have ended that discussion.  They are basically the same team.