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THE College Football Playoff Rankings Thread [MICH,WASH,TEX,ALA]

texifornia

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Huckleberry

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1 minute ago, Dbeasy said:

It’s been 24 hours since I posted my rant about this thread, and the same stupid shit is still being posted over and over. Pages of this crap. Today I realized a huge chunk of surly has the logic skills of my five year nephew. 

You should consider the possibility that nobody cared about your rant. 

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JBJ

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2 minutes ago, hobbes2702 said:

Slightly off topic but can someone tell me why the SEC is supposedly better than the Big12 this year? Outside of UGA and Bama they have nothing. 

Bama, LSU, aggy all lost their marquee OOC games.  The best OOC win the SEC has is either Mizzou in OT vs KSU or Kentucky over Louisville.

It's impossible to accurately compare between conferences with so little interplay between them.  With that disclaimer my model has Pac>B1G>B12>SEC>ACC.  There's basically no gap between Pac/B1G and B12/SEC.  And not much gap between all 5.

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Gut Wagon

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, dcar00 said:

yep, it was why everyone was pissed when we kept shitting the bed to let bad teams almost beat us.  those that understood, knew we likely were going to need style points.  We can get some style points back against OSU if we bring the wood.

Even after the loss to OU, a path to glory was right in front of us. Whether you want to say our deadly spiral began with Quinn's ill-fated scramble against UH or occurred later, we failed to pass the smell test against several pretty weak opponents. The talking heads kept saying, "Since Bama, I've been waiting for the Longhorns to play a complete game," and we waited over a month to do so. That's all on us, not on OU or the committee. 

Edited by Gut Wagon
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hobbes2702

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1 minute ago, GreenspointTexas said:

This

It’s the same shit we see every year. Outside of their big teams (Bama/UGA in recent years) the SEC teams underperform in non conf and then underperform in bowls. We pretend they are good because average ass teams like LSU beat other average ass teams like Mizzou and ole Miss. LSU, Mizzou, Ole Miss would be OSU, KSU level in the big 12.

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orange dream

orange dream 1241

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4 minutes ago, hobbes2702 said:

Slightly off topic but can someone tell me why the SEC is supposedly better than the Big12 this year? Outside of UGA and Bama they have nothing. 

Outside of Texas the Big XII doesn't have anything

Outside of UW / UO the PAC doesn't have anything

Outside of Mich / OSU the B1G doesn't have anything

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ChickenNuggets

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6 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

It’s been 24 hours since I posted my rant about this thread, and the same stupid shit is still being posted over and over. Pages of this crap. Today I realized a huge chunk of surly has the logic skills of my five year nephew. 

haha, or maybe the takeaway is your posts don't have the influence you think they do :).

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Vic Mackey

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Outside of Texas the Big XII doesn't have anything
Outside of UW / UO the PAC doesn't have anything
Outside of Mich / OSU the B1G doesn't have anything
And let's not forget, the SEC is inflated every year since they only play 8 conference games and in place of a 9th conference game that would give half the conference an extra loss, they all get a free win over a D2 bumfuck asshole Tech school they schedule.
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High Plains Drifter

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Posted

 

Next year it'll be the same shit, except everyone will be talking about top 12 (or whateverthefuck) instead of top 4.

Rankings determining who gets into the playoffs is bullshit.

 

We need 8 or 16 conferences, each conference champ gets in with random seeding. Whoever is left can squabble over the bowls.

That or we go back to the system with just bowls and polls, no playoff and no NCG.

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High Plains Drifter

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12 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

It’s been 24 hours since I posted my rant about this thread, and the same stupid shit is still being posted over and over. Pages of this crap. Today I realized a huge chunk of surly has the logic skills of my five year nephew. 

 

like anybody reads anything other than the last one or two posts. 37 pages and counting, fuck that I ain't reading that shit.

 

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hobbes2702

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Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, High Plains Drifter said:

 

Next year it'll be the same shit, except everyone will be talking about top 12 (or whateverthefuck) instead of top 4.

Rankings determining who gets into the playoffs is bullshit.

 

We need 8 or 16 conferences, each conference champ gets in with random seeding. Whoever is left can squabble over the bowls.

That or we go back to the system with just bowls and polls, no playoff and no NCG.

I don’t think anyone left out of the top 12 has a real argument for being included. At that point you didn’t do the work you needed to. A bunch of one loss teams trying to fit in 4 spots is way different than leaving out a 2 or 3 loss team ranked 13th.

A better system in my mind is just include all 11 conference winners and 5 at large and seed them by committee. Ensures every conference gets a shot to show they deserve to be there and doesn’t leave out a team like UGA or Bama this year 

Edited by hobbes2702
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joeycovers

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1 minute ago, High Plains Drifter said:

 

Next year it'll be the same shit, except everyone will be talking about top 12 (or whateverthefuck) instead of top 4.

Rankings determining who gets into the playoffs is bullshit.

 

We need 8 or 16 conferences, each conference champ gets in with random seeding. Whoever is left can squabble over the bowls.

That or we go back to the system with just bowls and polls, no playoff and no NCG.

Ya. A system where the Sun Belt Champ gets in over UGA/Bama loser. Ohio St Wash/Oregon loser etc sounds real cool .  Then lets randomly seed Uga vs UT in the first round and UNLV vs SMU in the first round. Compelling TV. 

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High Plains Drifter

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Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, joeycovers said:

Ya. A system where the Sun Belt Champ gets in over UGA/Bama loser. Ohio St Wash/Oregon loser etc sounds real cool .  Then lets randomly seed Uga vs UT in the first round and UNLV vs SMU in the first round. Compelling TV. 

 

At least such a system would mean that this thread abortion wouldn't exist.

edit to add: Like the last few years playoffs were "compelling TV". Like watching a game that lasts over three hours, where half that time is the same ten commercials repeated ad naseum. Like seeing in high def from five different angles in slow motion if the guys toe was one inch on this side of the line or that side of the line while the ref spends ten minutes looking at his monitor to "Make sure we get it right" is compelling TV.

Compelling TV lol.

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JBJ

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1 minute ago, Red Five said:

If the 12 team were this year, we might have a situation where we play Tulane at home in the first round, and then FSU in the second round. If you want to feel some more pain. 

And Ole Miss is ranked 12th this year which would be all kinds of controversial (they beat Tulane OOC).

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joeycovers

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12 minutes ago, Hagbard Celine said:

as this thread continues to run away from anyone's ability to stay up with it and do anything else, taking a moment to repeat my prediction for tomorrow night's committee rankings:

1 dawg

2 meatchicken

3 washington

4 florida state

5 bama

6 texas

7 oregon

8 jort

9 louisville

Ummm.. no chance at that

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Dahobbs

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41 minutes ago, Serak The Preparer said:

I'm not sure why you keep bringing up Pac 12 title game as if it is relevant. Even if Oregon wins, your own example shows Texas / Oregon only going in 1% of time. I agree that there is a sliver of a chance that Texas passes Oregon but it seems pretty damn low to me. The two realistic games that matter (assuming Texas wins of course) are ACC and SEC title games.

Anyone who states conclusively what will happen if Alabama wins is a fool but I do think there is a >50% chance that Texas goes in over Alabama.

The Pac 12 title game is absolutely relevant. If Washington wins, it is in. If Oregon wins, it'll depend on what happens in the remaining games. If Oregon, Alabama, and Texas win, two of those three teams are getting in (assuming Michigan and FSU win). I think the odds are greatest that the two teams in the CFP in that scenario are Texas and Alabama because the SEC champ isn't being left out and if Alabama is in and you really can't leave Texas out. Second highest chance is Oregon and Alabama, primarily in the scenario that Oregon blows out Washington and Texas squeaks by OSU. The 1% is for Texas and Oregon being the two teams in and Alabama being left out. 

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dcar00

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14 minutes ago, Hagbard Celine said:

as this thread continues to run away from anyone's ability to stay up with it and do anything else, taking a moment to repeat my prediction for tomorrow night's committee rankings:

1 dawg

2 meatchicken

3 washington

4 florida state

5 bama

6 texas

7 oregon

8 jort

9 louisville

I bet it is Oregon, Texas, Jort, Bama.  Bama's hail mary against Auburn to avoid the loss is going to affect them.  Jort position doesn't really matter though.

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UTEE97

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43 minutes ago, hook me said:

You're assuming the biases of 13 humans you've never net & then coming to a conclusion on how all of those trains of thoughts are going to work themselves out when discussed & voted on.

I am not making any assumptions about their biases but we know the general perception with regards to the SEC.

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dcar00

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Just now, orange dream said:

BAMA and OU.

Not a single other ranked team on our schedule.  I don't know how Sagarin calculates SOS but ours has to be based mostly on those two games.

It is not just 2 games.  The Big 12 is actually solid compared to SEC/Pac12(Lol) this year.

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jimmyjazz

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3 hours ago, Pound Town said:

This is where I get hung up.  "Texas has the best resume out of any 1-loss team."

I think most objective people think this.  But it doesn't matter what we think.  What matters is what the committee thinks.  And they clearly disagree.  And nothing will change in between now and Sunday in our favor.

Other than one small nit (addressed in a minute), I agree.  Prior to last Friday/Saturday's games, it's clear that the committee thought Oregon's resume was superior to ours.  Both teams pummelled their opponent at home, but Oregon played a tougher team (Oregon State > Texas Tech).  They are not going to jump us ahead of Oregon tomorrow night.  When it comes to conference championship games, an Oregon win over Washington will be seen as superior to a Texas win over Okie State.  Same story.  They will not move us ahead of Oregon.

The only way we will move ahead of Oregon is if Oregon loses.  (That's my nit -- "And nothing will change in between now and Sunday in our favor."  Not nothing, but nothing if Oregon wins.)

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dcar00

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1 minute ago, mdmost said:

BUT WHY IS _____ #65?!?!?!?!?!

sorry should have said 68 with play in games on Tuesday for MACtion teams.

last 4 in, Illinois, Jacksonville State, BYU, Colorado  - Colorado v JSU(Prime TV Juice)

last 4 out, Neb, Coastal Carolina, Western Kentucky, Texas State

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89Horn

89Horn 1492

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56 minutes ago, UTEE97 said:

So many people treating this as a mathematical problem to solve instead of trying to see it from the POV of inherently biased humans who have no affiliation with our university! 

Yes this.  If you go the CFP website page with its selection protocols, the very first sentence states that selecting football teams is an art not a science.

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hobbes2702

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10 minutes ago, orange dream said:

BAMA and OU.

Not a single other ranked team on our schedule.  I don't know how Sagarin calculates SOS but ours has to be based mostly on those two games.

“Ranked” teams, that are ranked because of people voting, don’t matter in Sagarin. Strength of schedule factors in your opponents strength of schedule. The conference is loaded with teams with high SOS because the conference has very few “bad” teams and everyone in the conference plays a decent OOC schedule.

11 teams in the top 30 SOS in the Big12

Edited by hobbes2702
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JBJ

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1 minute ago, Reynolds Woodcock said:

Unlike the polls, SOS doesn't arbitrarily stop at 25. 

And power ratings matters more than ranks for SoS.  BTW, most power rankings have KSU up there.  KSU is #8 in mine.

For that matter, as much as people bemoan being looked down on for playing close games, the only comment from a national talking head I've heard about the KSU game is that it's one of the most impressive wins of the year - beating a top 15-ish team with a backup QB.

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Cajun

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2 hours ago, UTEE97 said:

Are you saying if Bama wins, Texas gets in and SEC doesn't get a spot? There is no chance in hell an SEC team doesn't get in. If you accept this, then why not root for the team that's already above us and why give the team below us one more stellar win and a conference championship that muddy the water for us?

They should just consider Texas an SEC team already.

Problem solved.

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linux

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1 minute ago, jimmyjazz said:

Other than one small nit (addressed in a minute), I agree.  Prior to last Friday/Saturday's games, it's clear that the committee thought Oregon's resume was superior to ours.  Both teams pummelled their opponent at home, but Oregon played a tougher team (Oregon State > Texas Tech).  They are not going to jump us ahead of Oregon tomorrow night.  When it comes to conference championship games, an Oregon win over Washington will be seen as superior to a Texas win over Okie State.  Same story.  They will not move us ahead of Oregon.

The only way we will move ahead of Oregon is if Oregon loses.  (That's my nit -- "And nothing will change in between now and Sunday in our favor."  Not nothing, but nothing if Oregon wins.)

The only hail mary is the common opponent in Tech, but yeah.

Path in, in terms of likelyhood (CFP ranks in any order)

1) FSU loses: Michigan, PAC, Texas, Georgia

2) FSU wins but Georgia loses: Michigan, PAC, Texas, FSU

3) Michigan loses: PAC, Texas, FSU, SEC

 

The only scenario where UT is 100% shut out is Michigan, Washington, Georgia, FSU.

If it is Oregon instead it is a pure luck draw based on common opponent and that is it.

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idigTexas

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3 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Other than one small nit (addressed in a minute), I agree.  Prior to last Friday/Saturday's games, it's clear that the committee thought Oregon's resume was superior to ours.  Both teams pummelled their opponent at home, but Oregon played a tougher team (Oregon State > Texas Tech).  They are not going to jump us ahead of Oregon tomorrow night.  When it comes to conference championship games, an Oregon win over Washington will be seen as superior to a Texas win over Okie State.  Same story.  They will not move us ahead of Oregon.

The only way we will move ahead of Oregon is if Oregon loses.  (That's my nit -- "And nothing will change in between now and Sunday in our favor."  Not nothing, but nothing if Oregon wins.)

You assume that the evaluations that put Oregon in front of us are carved in stone, never to be reconsidered.  They got a lot of credit for beating teams that were perceived at the time to be very good.  Many of those teams have shown that they are not so good after all.  Texas was in a cycle where we were struggling to put away teams.  There's also the common opponent factor which only came into play this week.  I'm not expecting Texas to jump Oregon this week, but I would not be at all surprised if they do.  If they don't, I will still have hope that they could, not knowing what has been reconsidered and whether the committee has to figure out how to justify Alabama getting into the CFP.  They have changed the order of teams every week, even when everyone has won.  The order of Oregon and Texas is not immune to that.  

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dcar00

dcar00 14035

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Posted
Just now, hobbes2702 said:

“Ranked” teams, that are ranked because of people voting, don’t matter in Sagarin. Strength of schedule factors in your opponents strength of schedule. The conference is loaded with teams with high SOS because the conference has very few “bad” teams and everyone in the conference plays a decent OOC schedule.

we also play 9 conf games which helps vs SEC.  but the SEC figured out long ago that SOS for the committee(humans) means close to zero.

Big 12(14) only had 3 dogshit teams Cincy, Hou, Baylor.   BYU and TCU played Arkansas and Colorado and BYU, so they get a bump there.  Tech played Oregon.

In a logical world with the SOS of #2 or at least top 5 assuming beating OSU we should be in over certainly FSU or Oregon but loss column rules all just like in the poll era.

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Pound Town

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15 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Other than one small nit (addressed in a minute), I agree.  Prior to last Friday/Saturday's games, it's clear that the committee thought Oregon's resume was superior to ours.  Both teams pummelled their opponent at home, but Oregon played a tougher team (Oregon State > Texas Tech).  They are not going to jump us ahead of Oregon tomorrow night.  When it comes to conference championship games, an Oregon win over Washington will be seen as superior to a Texas win over Okie State.  Same story.  They will not move us ahead of Oregon.

The only way we will move ahead of Oregon is if Oregon loses.  (That's my nit -- "And nothing will change in between now and Sunday in our favor."  Not nothing, but nothing if Oregon wins.)

True, but a Wash win closes that door.  We will be ahead of Oregon but it won't matter unless one of the others loses.    

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jimmyjazz

jimmyjazz 45560

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4 minutes ago, idigTexas said:

You assume that the evaluations that put Oregon in front of us are carved in stone, never to be reconsidered.  They got a lot of credit for beating teams that were perceived at the time to be very good.  Many of those teams have shown that they are not so good after all.  Texas was in a cycle where we were struggling to put away teams. 

All of that was taken into account in the last CFP rankings, and the committee literally told us they think Oregon's resume is better than ours, prior to last weekend's games.

 

Quote

There's also the common opponent factor which only came into play this week.  

OK, I'll grant you that.  I think it requires a bit too sharp of a pencil to assume the committee might consider it, but point taken.

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joeycovers

joeycovers 385

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11 minutes ago, hobbes2702 said:

“Ranked” teams, that are ranked because of people voting, don’t matter in Sagarin. Strength of schedule factors in your opponents strength of schedule. The conference is loaded with teams with high SOS because the conference has very few “bad” teams and everyone in the conference plays a decent OOC schedule.

11 teams in the top 30 SOS in the Big12

Wyoming and Rice having good years also helps in comparison to So Miss and North Alabama ( Noles) or Ball St, UT Martin, UAB (UGA) 

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