THE College Football Playoff Rankings Thread [MICH,WASH,TEX,ALA]

[dcar00 14,035]

17 minutes ago, 89Horn said:

Yes this.  If you go the CFP website page with its selection protocols, the very first sentence states that selecting football teams is an art not a science.

kind of like multi level marketing

[Ojo Rojo 1,905]

Prediction for this week's rankings:

1. Georgia

2. Michigan

3. Washington

4. Florida State

5. Ohio State

6. Texas

7. Oregon

8. Alabama

Texas jumps Oregon because our resume is simply better. We beat the common opponent much worse than they did. Texas final busted out and put up big points in a blowout win.

Prediction for CFP:

FSU loses to Louisville. FSU, like us, has played evenly against mid-grade and poor teams. They beat an okay LSU team first game of the season. Only other win against a ranked team was #16 Duke. They lost their starting QB. 

Chalk the rest of the way.

1. Georgia

2. Michigan

3. Washington

4. Texas

[Dahobbs 17,447]

1 minute ago, orange dream said:

BAMA and OU.

Not a single other ranked team on our schedule.  I don't know how Sagarin calculates SOS but ours has to be based mostly on those two games.

SOS isn't based on top 25 rankings. It is based on the entire schedule. The vast majority of the teams we played turned out to be solid. 

1. Rice, 6-6, going bowling (4 close loses)
2. Alabama, 11-1, potential CFP
3. Wyoming, 8-4, going bowling
4. Baylor, 3-9 (hahaha)
5. Kansas. 8-4, going bowling 
6. Sooners, 10-2, going bowling
7.  Houston, 4-8
8. BYU, 5-7 
9.  Kansas State, 8-4, going bowling
10. TCU,  5-7
11.  Iowa State, 7-5, going bowling
12.  Texas Tech, 6-6, going bowling

2 of the 4 teams we played that aren't going bowling are just barely missing out. 8 of the 12 had records that were .500 or better.  The composite win percentage of our opponents is 57% (81-61). 

In comparison, Oregon:

1. Portland State, 5-6 (FCS)
2. Texas Tech, 6-6, going bowling
3. Hawaii, 5-8
4. Colorado, 4-8
5. Stanford, 3-9
6. Washington, 12-0
7.  Washington State, 5-7
8. Utah, 8-4, going bowling
9. Cal, 6-6, going bowling
10. USC, 7-5, going bowling
11. Arizona State, 3-9
12. Oregon State, 8-4, going bowling

Only 5 of Oregon's opponents are going to a bowl game. Combined win percentage of exactly 50% (72-72). And an FCS team was thrown in the mix for good measure. 

Alabama

1. Middle Tenn, 4-8
2. Texas, 11-1
3. South Florida, 6-6, bowling
4.  Ole Miss, 10-2, bowling
5.  Miss State, 5-7
6.  Aggy, 7-5, bowling
7.  Arkansas, 4-8
8.  Tenn, 8-4, bowling
9.  LSU, 9-3, bowling
10.  Kentucky, 7-5, bowling
11. Chattanooga, 8-4 (FCS)
12.  Auburn,  6-6, bowling

Combined win percentage, 59%, with the caveat that there is an FCS team in there AND every SEC team schedules an additional out of conference cupcake over other conferences. 

 

 

 

 

[dcar00 14,035]

14 minutes ago, closetohumping said:

Just noticed, no leftovers in top 1::

 

that would be nuts.

[Dahobbs 17,447]

26 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Other than one small nit (addressed in a minute), I agree.  Prior to last Friday/Saturday's games, it's clear that the committee thought Oregon's resume was superior to ours.  Both teams pummelled their opponent at home, but Oregon played a tougher team (Oregon State > Texas Tech).  They are not going to jump us ahead of Oregon tomorrow night.  When it comes to conference championship games, an Oregon win over Washington will be seen as superior to a Texas win over Okie State.  Same story.  They will not move us ahead of Oregon.

The only way we will move ahead of Oregon is if Oregon loses.  (That's my nit -- "And nothing will change in between now and Sunday in our favor."  Not nothing, but nothing if Oregon wins.)

You'll be wrong and you'll like it. 

[Gut Wagon 8,052]

46 minutes ago, Vic Mackey said:

51 minutes ago, orange dream said:

And let's not forget, the SEC is inflated every year since they only play 8 conference games and in place of a 9th conference game that would give half the conference an extra loss, they all get a free win over a D2 bumfuck asshole Tech school they schedule.

[chainsaw 9,838]

1 hour ago, Huckleberry said:

Explain why Alabama beating Georgia at a neutral site is a better win than Texas beating the team that beat Georgia (for its only loss in this scenario) on the road. 

Alabama will have beaten a one loss team that isn't a conference champion at a neutral site. They will have beaten a team that is lower ranked than they are after the game. 

Texas will have beaten a one loss conference champion on the road. Alabama will be higher ranked than Georgia after the game. 

In what world is Alabama's win better in this scenario? For double points, make the argument without using stuff that did not occur during the 2023 season that is the only season for which this committee will be ranking teams. 

It just means more.

[joeycovers 385]

3 minutes ago, Ojo Rojo said:

Prediction for this week's rankings:

1. Georgia

2. Michigan

3. Washington

4. Florida State

5. Ohio State

6. Texas

7. Oregon

8. Alabama

Texas jumps Oregon because our resume is simply better. We beat the common opponent much worse than they did. Texas final busted out and put up big points in a blowout win.

Prediction for CFP:

FSU loses to Louisville. FSU, like us, has played evenly against mid-grade and poor teams. They beat an okay LSU team first game of the season. Only other win against a ranked team was #16 Duke. They lost their starting QB. 

Chalk the rest of the way.

1. Georgia

2. Michigan

3. Washington

4. Texas

Wash is a 9 point underdog. Wouldnt call that chalk unless you are just looking at ranking. That would be a pretty big upset. 

[chainsaw 9,838]

4 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

SOS isn't based on top 25 rankings. It is based on the entire schedule. The vast majority of the teams we played turned out to be solid. 

1. Rice, 6-6, going bowling (4 close loses)
2. Alabama, 11-1, potential CFP
3. Wyoming, 8-4, going bowling
4. Baylor, 3-9 (hahaha)
5. Kansas. 8-4, going bowling 
6. Sooners, 10-2, going bowling
7.  Houston, 4-8
8. BYU, 5-7 
9.  Kansas State, 8-4, going bowling
10. TCU,  5-7
11.  Iowa State, 7-5, going bowling
12.  Texas Tech, 6-6, going bowling

2 of the 4 teams we played that aren't going bowling are just barely missing out. 8 of the 12 had records that were .500 or better.  The composite win percentage of our opponents is 57% (81-61). 

In comparison, Oregon:

1. Portland State, 5-6 (FCS)
2. Texas Tech, 6-6, going bowling
3. Hawaii, 5-8
4. Colorado, 4-8
5. Stanford, 3-9
6. Washington, 12-0
7.  Washington State, 5-7
8. Utah, 8-4, going bowling
9. Cal, 6-6, going bowling
10. USC, 7-5, going bowling
11. Arizona State, 3-9
12. Oregon State, 8-4, going bowling

Only 5 of Oregon's opponents are going to a bowl game. Combined win percentage of exactly 50% (72-72). And an FCS team was thrown in the mix for good measure. 

Alabama

1. Middle Tenn, 4-8
2. Texas, 11-1
3. South Florida, 6-6, bowling
4.  Ole Miss, 10-2, bowling
5.  Miss State, 5-7
6.  Aggy, 7-5, bowling
7.  Arkansas, 4-8
8.  Tenn, 8-4, bowling
9.  LSU, 9-3, bowling
10.  Kentucky, 7-5, bowling
11. Chattanooga, 8-4 (FCS)
12.  Auburn,  6-6, bowling

Combined win percentage, 59%, with the caveat that there is an FCS team in there AND every SEC team schedules an additional out of conference cupcake over other conferences. 

 

 

 

 

Cal who lost at home to a team that lost handily to the aggies (of new mexico state)??

[joeycovers 385]

My predictions that no one cares about for Tuesday rankings. 

1. Mich

2. UGA

3. Wash

4. Oregon

5. Ohio St

6. Noles

7. UT

8.Bama

[Vic Mackey 46,936]

3 minutes ago, Gut Wagon said:

And that's the same team that Bama needed some miracle pass at the end to beat. But they will credit because SECSECSEC and rivalry game.

[Ojo Rojo 1,905]

1 minute ago, joeycovers said:

Wash is a 9 point underdog. Wouldnt call that chalk unless you are just looking at ranking. That would be a pretty big upset. 

True. I don't look at the lines because those are not dictated by the logic of who is favored to win, but by the movement of money bet on one team or the other.

[dcar00 14,035]

Kansas State was crazy close to being 11-1 this year.  definitely a what could have been for them.

not sure if would have worked but aggy should have looked at Klieman.  I'm still shocked he went for that 2 pointer.

[chainsaw 9,838]

7 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

SOS isn't based on top 25 rankings. It is based on the entire schedule. The vast majority of the teams we played turned out to be solid. 

1. Rice, 6-6, going bowling (4 close loses)
2. Alabama, 11-1, potential CFP
3. Wyoming, 8-4, going bowling
4. Baylor, 3-9 (hahaha)
5. Kansas. 8-4, going bowling 
6. Sooners, 10-2, going bowling
7.  Houston, 4-8
8. BYU, 5-7 
9.  Kansas State, 8-4, going bowling
10. TCU,  5-7
11.  Iowa State, 7-5, going bowling
12.  Texas Tech, 6-6, going bowling

2 of the 4 teams we played that aren't going bowling are just barely missing out. 8 of the 12 had records that were .500 or better.  The composite win percentage of our opponents is 57% (81-61). 

In comparison, Oregon:

1. Portland State, 5-6 (FCS)
2. Texas Tech, 6-6, going bowling
3. Hawaii, 5-8
4. Colorado, 4-8
5. Stanford, 3-9
6. Washington, 12-0
7.  Washington State, 5-7
8. Utah, 8-4, going bowling
9. Cal, 6-6, going bowling
10. USC, 7-5, going bowling
11. Arizona State, 3-9
12. Oregon State, 8-4, going bowling

Only 5 of Oregon's opponents are going to a bowl game. Combined win percentage of exactly 50% (72-72). And an FCS team was thrown in the mix for good measure. 

Alabama

1. Middle Tenn, 4-8
2. Texas, 11-1
3. South Florida, 6-6, bowling
4.  Ole Miss, 10-2, bowling
5.  Miss State, 5-7
6.  Aggy, 7-5, bowling
7.  Arkansas, 4-8
8.  Tenn, 8-4, bowling
9.  LSU, 9-3, bowling
10.  Kentucky, 7-5, bowling
11. Chattanooga, 8-4 (FCS)
12.  Auburn,  6-6, bowling

Combined win percentage, 59%, with the caveat that there is an FCS team in there AND every SEC team schedules an additional out of conference cupcake over other conferences. 

 

 

 

 

BYU was pretty close to going bowling too. TCU maybe would have had a totally different season but they got Primed.

[Dahobbs 17,447]

3 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

Cal who lost at home to a team that lost handily to the aggies (of new mexico state)??

Yes, that is the same team on Oregon's schedule. I'm not sure I understand your point or your question. 

[joeycovers 385]

2 minutes ago, Ojo Rojo said:

True. I don't look at the lines because those are not dictated by the logic of who is favored to win, but by the movement of money bet on one team or the other.

Chicken or the Egg. Point being Oregon is favored by every metric to win the game. 

[chainsaw 9,838]

Just now, Dahobbs said:

Yes, that is the same team on Oregon's schedule. I'm not sure I understand your point or your question. 

just pointing out how bad of a team can become bowl eligible in the pac.

[dcar00 14,035]

I could see the committee putting Texas in front of Oregon this week and then if both win, they use the Wash win for Oregon to leap frog them back.  Bama position doesn't really matter because if they win they are SECSECSEC champs and beat 2 time defending champs.

[Ojo Rojo 1,905]

1 minute ago, joeycovers said:

Chicken or the Egg. Point being Oregon is favored by every metric to win the game. 

Except current rankings, but point taken. Washington beating Oregon would not be chalk.

[dcar00 14,035]

7 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

BYU was pretty close to going bowling too. TCU maybe would have had a totally different season but they got Primed.

TCU did get shadeur'd but it would have just meant going bowling.  They had to be the luckiest team in college football in a decade.  the Michigan win is still a stunner I have to admit.  They were living on borrowed time.

[joeycovers 385]

Has a team ever jumped from #8 to top 4 in the final week? Whats the biggest jump ever to make the playoff?

[JBJ 3,649]

Having read through the entire thread carefully and considered everyone's opinion, the rank-order is this:

1) Michigan

2) Georgia

3) FSU

4) Washington

5) Oregon - this was close, but eyetest wins out.  They've simply been more consistent and their resume isn't that bad especially with a rematch win.

6) Texas

7) Alabama - they lose the eye test and resume and head-to-head to Texas.  I will say that a win over Georgia helps their resume a lot and it's not the huge gulf behind Texas that I expected.  They are still the worse pick by every measure, though.

8. Michigan (1L)

9) UGA (1L)

---- no chance below this line ----

10) tOSU

11) FSU (1L)

12) Washington (1L)

 

Congratulations, everyone.  This is official.  We did it.

 

Spoiler

All this is subject to change based on next week's eye test.

 

[The_Great_Hornsby 3,329]

Just now, JBJ said:

Having read through the entire thread carefully and considered everyone's opinion, the rank-order is this:

1) Michigan

2) Georgia

3) FSU

4) Washington

5) Oregon - this was close, but eyetest wins out.  They've simply been more consistent and their resume isn't that bad especially with a rematch win.

6) Texas

7) Alabama - they lose the eye test and resume and head-to-head to Texas.  I will say that a win over Georgia helps their resume a lot and it's not the huge gulf behind Texas that I expected.  They are still the worse pick by every measure, though.

8. Michigan (1L)

9) UGA (1L)

---- no chance below this line ----

10) tOSU

11) FSU (1L)

12) Washington (1L)

 

Congratulations, everyone.  This is official.  We did it.

 

  Reveal hidden contents

All this is subject to change based on next week's eye test.

 

FSU in front of Washington, it's a bold move cotton, lets see if it pays off

[chainsaw 9,838]

31 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

TCU did get shadeur'd but it would have just meant going bowling.  They had to be the luckiest team in college football in a decade.  the Michigan win is still a stunner I have to admit.  They were living on borrowed time.

Sonny Dykes gotta be mad that Bjork didn't offer

[blutow 222]

40 minutes ago, joeycovers said:

My predictions that no one cares about for Tuesday rankings. 

1. Mich

2. UGA

3. Wash

4. Oregon

5. Ohio St

6. Noles

7. UT

8.Bama

If FSU is below #4 in tomorrow's rankings, the writing is on the wall for FSU (ie - they are out if they look like crap again this weekend).  I don't see that happening, but some in the media are speculating that it's possible.  I think it's mostly wishcasting by folks who can't imagine a world where tOsu doesn't get another shot or the SEC folks looking at the possibility that Bama and Georgia could both be left out.    

[The_Great_Hornsby 3,329]

1 minute ago, blutow said:

If FSU is below #4 in tomorrow's rankings, the writing is on the wall for FSU (ie - they are out if they look like crap again this weekend).  I don't see that happening, but some in the media are speculating that it's possible.  I think it's mostly wishcasting by folks who can't imagine a world where tOsu doesn't get another shot or the SEC folks looking at the possibility that Bama and Georgia could both be left out.    

Correct. Hope it happens but I bet we see them sitting at #4. If they are #5 or #6. It definitely opens the door bigtime. 

[joeycovers 385]

2 minutes ago, blutow said:

If FSU is below #4 in tomorrow's rankings, the writing is on the wall for FSU (ie - they are out if they look like crap again this weekend).  I don't see that happening, but some in the media are speculating that it's possible.  I think it's mostly wishcasting by folks who can't imagine a world where tOsu doesn't get another shot or the SEC folks looking at the possibility that Bama and Georgia could both be left out.    

Thats where im leaning. If Noles are going to get jumped tomorrow is the day it will start.  Nobody wants to see the Noles in the playoffs. Especially ESPN when so many blue bloods just waiting to pounce

[El Squared 1,793]

3 hours ago, dcar00 said:

the pac12 sucks ass now, and everyone knows it, so why aren't we above Oregon?

....because this is a completely unbiased, neutral process free of any agendas..... and maybe a little Nike Knight and Mickey Mouse fuckery....maybe just a little...just the tip...

[chainsaw 9,838]

Maybe (okay definitely) I'm biased but Oregon isn't very fun to watch

[conVINCEd 21,468]

5 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

Maybe (okay definitely) I'm biased but Oregon isn't very fun to watch

Watchability is relative.  Check out an Iowa game and get back to me.

[Coelenterate Fuccboi 13,010]

Following this thread gives me a glimpse of what it must be like to be an online college “professor”. 
 

Reading essay after essay, covering the same topic, with each one only slightly altered to avoid plagiarism.

[Dbeasy 14,969]

[LTtxfan 48,977]

Funny how there are different sources for calculations on strength of schedule...  

 

[Gut Wagon 8,052]

10 minutes ago, LTtxfan said:

Funny how there are different sources for calculations on strength of schedule...  

 

If we win over OSU, as expected, we'll have beaten 8 bowl-eligible teams. I figure that's been done a few times before, but it's still impressive...no matter what anyone thinks it should or shouldn't mean in terms of the CFP. 

[LonghornSean 3,942]

1 hour ago, Dahobbs said:

SOS isn't based on top 25 rankings. It is based on the entire schedule. The vast majority of the teams we played turned out to be solid. 

1. Rice, 6-6, going bowling (4 close loses)
2. Alabama, 11-1, potential CFP
3. Wyoming, 8-4, going bowling
4. Baylor, 3-9 (hahaha)
5. Kansas. 8-4, going bowling 
6. Sooners, 10-2, going bowling
7.  Houston, 4-8
8. BYU, 5-7 
9.  Kansas State, 8-4, going bowling
10. TCU,  5-7
11.  Iowa State, 7-5, going bowling
12.  Texas Tech, 6-6, going bowling

2 of the 4 teams we played that aren't going bowling are just barely missing out. 8 of the 12 had records that were .500 or better.  The composite win percentage of our opponents is 57% (81-61). 

In comparison, Oregon:

1. Portland State, 5-6 (FCS)
2. Texas Tech, 6-6, going bowling
3. Hawaii, 5-8
4. Colorado, 4-8
5. Stanford, 3-9
6. Washington, 12-0
7.  Washington State, 5-7
8. Utah, 8-4, going bowling
9. Cal, 6-6, going bowling
10. USC, 7-5, going bowling
11. Arizona State, 3-9
12. Oregon State, 8-4, going bowling

Only 5 of Oregon's opponents are going to a bowl game. Combined win percentage of exactly 50% (72-72). And an FCS team was thrown in the mix for good measure. 

Alabama

1. Middle Tenn, 4-8
2. Texas, 11-1
3. South Florida, 6-6, bowling
4.  Ole Miss, 10-2, bowling
5.  Miss State, 5-7
6.  Aggy, 7-5, bowling
7.  Arkansas, 4-8
8.  Tenn, 8-4, bowling
9.  LSU, 9-3, bowling
10.  Kentucky, 7-5, bowling
11. Chattanooga, 8-4 (FCS)
12.  Auburn,  6-6, bowling

Combined win percentage, 59%, with the caveat that there is an FCS team in there AND every SEC team schedules an additional out of conference cupcake over other conferences. 

 

 

 

 

I wish I could rep this post more. This is why our SOS is so strong relative to many of the others, when it's broken down over the full 12 games. 

However when it comes to humans ranking teams, the throwaway wins are dismissed for the most part and primarily the top wins and of course the losses are compared, for better or for worse. So our non-conference wins against 8-4 Wyoming and bowl eligible Rice aren't really looked at in comparison to FCS walkovers Chattanooga and Portland State, Hawaii, Middle Tennessee State, etc.

Another reason why computer models for rankings should get more consideration alongside the human element.

Edited November 27, 2023 by LonghornSean

[Coelenterate Fuccboi 13,010]

2 hours ago, 89Horn said:

Yes this.  If you go the CFP website page with its selection protocols, the very first sentence states that selecting football teams is an art not a science.

But here in the real world, it’s not that easy at all.

[HOOKEM4 5,023]

At this point I am preparing to be left out of the playoffs. It will be an early Christmas gift if we get lucky. 

This thread is a fucking beating to read. Some of yall need to go hug your kids and fuck your wife/husband. Push that keyboard away.

[Al Bundy's Napoleon Hand 13,546]

40 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

This is what we need to do to the Pokes. Then show up the SECCG and beat Georgia and Bama with the corpses of OSU players. 

 

[mdleast 8,262]

The Athletic ran 16 playoff scenarios based on the conference championship games. Taking the 8 scenarios out where Texas loses, half of them show us in playoffs:

Predicting the College Football Playoff field: The 16 possible scenarios

Scenario 1: Georgia, Washington, FSU and Texas win.
1. Georgia (13-0)
2. Michigan (13-0)
3. Washington (13-0)
4. Florida State (13-0)
—
5. Texas (12-1)
Obviously, this one is as straightforward as it gets.

Scenario 3: Georgia, Washington, Louisville and Texas win.
1. Georgia (13-0)
2. Michigan (13-0)
3. Washington (13-0)
4. Texas (12-1)
—
5. Ohio State (11-1)
As a 12-1 conference champ, Texas gets the nod over Ohio State.

Scenario 5: Georgia, Oregon, FSU and Texas win.
1. Georgia (13-0)
2. Michigan (13-0)
3. Oregon (12-1)
4. Florida State (13-0)
—
5. Texas (12-1)
The committee has consistently placed one-loss Oregon above one-loss Texas despite the Horns arguably owning a better resume; so no reason to think that changes if the Ducks beat a 12-0 opponent in their last game. I even have them passing undefeated FSU.

Scenario 7: Georgia, Oregon, Louisville and Texas win.
1. Georgia (13-0)
2. Michigan (13-0)
3. Oregon (12-1)
4. Texas (12-1)
—
5. Washington (12-1)
Another tough call at No. 4, especially given Texas would have to move up three spots, but the Horns would be a conference champ and the Huskies would not.

Scenario 9: Alabama, Washington, Florida State and Texas win.
1. Michigan (13-0)
2. Washington (13-0)
3. Alabama (12-1)
4. Florida State (13-0)
—
5. Georgia (12-1)

Scenario 11: Alabama, Washington, Louisville and Texas win.
1. Michigan (13-0)
2. Washington (13-0)
3. Alabama (12-1)
4. Texas (12-1)
—
5. Georgia (12-1)
Texas vs. Georgia would be an absolutely maddening debate, but I again default to the conference champion. Especially since Texas won at Alabama.

Scenario 13: Alabama, Oregon, Florida State and Texas win.
1. Michigan (13-0)
2. Alabama (12-1)
3. Oregon (12-1)
4. Florida State (13-0)
—
5. Georgia (12-1)
Now, both one-loss Alabama and one-loss Oregon enter the picture. Georgia may claim to be better than Oregon, but Georgia would not have just beaten a 12-0 team.

Scenario 15: Alabama, Oregon, Louisville and Texas win.
1. Michigan (13-0)
2. Alabama (12-1)
3. Oregon (12-1)
4. Texas (12-1)
—
5. Georgia (12-1)
Same as Scenario 11, just with a different Pac-12 team.

All told, here’s how often each team gets in:
• Michigan: 16
• Georgia: 10
• Washington: 9
• Oregon: 8
• Alabama: 8
• FSU: 8
• Texas: 4
• Ohio State: 1

Note they don’t even entertain Michigan losing. Poor Iowa.

Edited November 28, 2023 by mdleast
sportz

[dcar00 14,035]

2 minutes ago, mdleast said:

The Athletic ran 16 playoff scenarios based on the conference championship games. Taking the 8 scenarios out where Texas loses, half of them show us in playoffs:

Predicting the College Football Playoff field: The 16 possible scenarios

Scenario 1: Georgia, Washington, FSU and Texas win.
1. Georgia (13-0)
2. Michigan (13-0)
3. Washington (13-0)
4. Florida State (13-0)
—
5. Texas (12-1)
Obviously, this one is as straightforward as it gets.

Scenario 3: Georgia, Washington, Louisville and Texas win.
1. Georgia (13-0)
2. Michigan (13-0)
3. Washington (13-0)
4. Texas (12-1)
—
5. Ohio State (11-1)
As a 12-1 conference champ, Texas gets the nod over Ohio State.


Scenario 5: Georgia, Oregon, FSU and Texas win.
1. Georgia (13-0)
2. Michigan (13-0)
3. Oregon (12-1)
4. Florida State (13-0)
—
5. Texas (12-1)
The committee has consistently placed one-loss Oregon above one-loss Texas despite the Horns arguably owning a better resume; so no reason to think that changes if the Ducks beat a 12-0 opponent in their last game. I even have them passing undefeated FSU.
Scenario 7: Georgia, Oregon, Louisville and Texas win.
1. Georgia (13-0)
2. Michigan (13-0)
3. Oregon (12-1)
4. Texas (12-1)
—
5. Washington (12-1)
Another tough call at No. 4, especially given Texas would have to move up three spots, but the Horns would be a conference champ and the Huskies would not.
Scenario 9: Alabama, Washington, Florida State and Texas win.
1. Michigan (13-0)
2. Washington (13-0)
3. Alabama (12-1)
4. Florida State (13-0)
—
5. Georgia (12-1)

Scenario 11: Alabama, Washington, Louisville and Texas win.
1. Michigan (13-0)
2. Washington (13-0)
3. Alabama (12-1)
4. Texas (12-1)
—
5. Georgia (12-1)
Texas vs. Georgia would be an absolutely maddening debate, but I again default to the conference champion. Especially since Texas won at Alabama.
Scenario 13: Alabama, Oregon, Florida State and Texas win.
1. Michigan (13-0)
2. Alabama (12-1)
3. Oregon (12-1)
4. Florida State (13-0)
—
5. Georgia (12-1)
Now, both one-loss Alabama and one-loss Oregon enter the picture. Georgia may claim to be better than Oregon, but Georgia would not have just beaten a 12-0 team.
Scenario 15: Alabama, Oregon, Louisville and Texas win.
1. Michigan (13-0)
2. Alabama (12-1)
3. Oregon (12-1)
4. Texas (12-1)
—
5. Georgia (12-1)
Same as Scenario 11, just with a different Pac-12 team.

All told, here’s how often each team gets in:
• Michigan: 16
• Georgia: 10
• Washington: 9
• Oregon: 8
• Alabama: 8
• FSU: 8
• Texas: 4
• Ohio State: 1

Note they don’t even entertain Michigan losing. Poor Iowa.

wait...all that to say if Louisville wins Texas is in?

[mdmost 42,865]

All of them are if Louisville wins which is what some of us are saying is the only way we get in. 

Edited November 28, 2023 by mdmost

[mdleast 8,262]

wait...all that to say if Louisville wins Texas is in?

[Neonmoon 38,127]

2 minutes ago, mdmost said:

All of them are if Louisville wins which is what some of us are saying is the only way we get in. 

Correct. 

[TexasEd 8,064]

3 minutes ago, mdmost said:

All of them are if Louisville wins which is what some of us are saying is the only way we get in. 

In the unlikely event of a Michigan loss, we are in.

[dcar00 14,035]

3 minutes ago, mdmost said:

All of them are if Louisville wins which is what some of us are saying is the only way we get in. 

I wonder how many Liquid Cooled Cray Supercomputers they needed for this project

[mdmost 42,865]

Just now, TexasEd said:

In the unlikely event of a Michigan loss, we are in.

Sure but they aren't even entertaining that. And why should they? Iowa is the most ass team left this weekend. 

[Red Five 40,664]

Iowa vs. FSU. Who you got.

[blutow 222]

If we win, I give us a 50% shot of making the playoffs.  

[Valmy77 13,094]

ESPN's playoff predictor thing: https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story/_/page/cfbplayoffpredictor/cfb-playoff-predictor

Says we have a 57% chance of being in if Bama beats Georgia and everything else goes chalk.

So there is that. I think Bama gets in ahead of us but maybe that is another path.

[JBJ 3,649]

10 minutes ago, Red Five said:

Iowa vs. FSU. Who you got.

FSU 21 (7 FGs)

Iowa 7 (1 FG, 2 SAF)