Jump to content

THE College Football Playoff Rankings Thread [MICH,WASH,TEX,ALA]

texifornia

By texifornia
in Football

 Share

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 6.8k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

Popular Posts

Vic Mackey
Vic Mackey
Laxtonto
Laxtonto
Laxtonto
Laxtonto

Posted Images

Dahobbs

Dahobbs 17527

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

Once again, never has a non-champion gone over a P5 champion with the same number of losses. All those times people remember non-champions getting in that is scaring them right now were when the champions they went instead of all had more losses.

Yup overall record followed by conference champion as a tie breaker. That's all the committee has needed to select the four teams every single year except one, 2014, when there was one undefeated and four one-loss champions. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Dahobbs

Dahobbs 17527

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, bullet said:

I guess he argues that 1 in a million chance is better than 0 in a million.  Its kind of irrelevant.

Sort of. But I disagree with your percentages. If Oregon and Alabama win, I think it is about 60% we advance with Alabama. The 40% is if we struggle with OSU and/or Oregon completely blows out Washington, it would probably be Alabama and Oregon to advance. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Pimphand

Pimphand 5734

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Js1 said:

All I care about is a Texas win and an FSU loss. Then we are in. 

But if FSU wins a Bama win is better than a Georgia win. Since we won't know the ACC outcome the best path is rooting for Bama.

Georgia's shitbox schedule will bite them in the ass if they lose the only good game they play.

  • Hook 'Em 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Dahobbs

Dahobbs 17527

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

this is true.  I do think the are setting up a "chance" for Georgia this time because their adherence to the Oregon BS is just mystifying.

we never got close enough for it to matter but the whole time we were scheduling one tough or reasonably tough P5 I kept thinking "why do we do that?"

Texas has never won or had a chance to win a NC unless they were undefeated.  We always get screwed. and no one that is a blue blood ever gets punished for playing 3 D1 nobodies OOC.

Until they show they value SOS over number of losses we need to avoid any chance to take a loss OOC.  and that goes for when it goes to 12.  They will do the exact same poll era shit they've been doing for 25 years.  This year is the perfect example that proves the theory.

There is a flaw in your reasoning. Do you think we are in the conversation at all if we hadn't played Alabama? I'd wager that the primary reason we have a shot is because we played a tough schedule, not in spite of it. 

  • Hook 'Em 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Wilcox Cummingtonite

Wilcox Cummingtonite 2937

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, TrashMaster G said:

They ask the committee head about why they like Oregon so much and he talks about Bo Nix's completion percentage??? What the ever-loving fuck? WHY should the committee give a single damn about a stat like that?

That’s why all the “logical arguments” in here about conf champs, H2H, common opponents, etc. are so laughably ignorant. This is a beauty contest and the committee can do whatever the fuck they want- and they absolutely will.
 

Root for Louisville, Washington, Georgia. Anything else is fucking stupid.

  • Hook 'Em 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Dahobbs

Dahobbs 17527

Posted
Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, Wilcox Cummingtonite said:

That’s why all the “logical arguments” in here about conf champs, H2H, common opponents, etc. are so laughably ignorant. This is a beauty contest and the committee can do whatever the fuck they want- and they absolutely will.
 

Root for Louisville, Washington, Georgia. Anything else is fucking stupid.

Again, you're being stupid. If the committee is going to do whatever it wants, and we can't rely on reason or past experience, then it doesn't really matter who wins. 1 loss, non champion FSU over Texas? Sure, why not. After all, Texas's only win was Alabama, and they just lost to Georgia. Or maybe 2 loss Alabama who is much better now than when it played Texas deserves another shot. Or 1 loss non champion Ohio State. 

Edited by Dahobbs
Link to comment
Share on other sites
dcar00

dcar00 14159

Posted
Posted
Just now, Dahobbs said:

There is a flaw in your reasoning. Do you think we are in the conversation at all if we hadn't played Alabama? I'd wager that the primary reason we have a shot is because we played a tough schedule, not in spite of it. 

we should already be in.  it isn't really helping us that much because the committee doesn't value SOS.  the reason we schedule these games is for this exact scenario but the committee doesn't care that Oregon played shitty OOC and almost lost to one of those shitty OOC(who we rolled by 50).  They played fucking Portland State for god sakes.  Their SOS is not even close to ours, it is abysmal.

we need to beat OU and not worry about a potential 2nd loss if we do happen to lose to OU.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Wilcox Cummingtonite

Wilcox Cummingtonite 2937

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

Again, you're being stupid. If the committee is going to do whatever it wants, and we can't rely on reason or past experience, then it doesn't really matter who wins. 1 ones, non champion FSU over Texas? Sure, why not. After all, Texas's only win was Alabama, and they just lost to Georgia. Or maybe 2 loss Alabama who is much better now than when it played Texas deserves another shot. Or 1 loss non champion Ohio State. 

Again though, the committee’s guidelines: 

I Can Do What I Want Parks And Recreation GIF
 

They can do whatever the fuck they want. 

  • Drool 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Dahobbs

Dahobbs 17527

Posted
Posted
Just now, Wilcox Cummingtonite said:

Again though, the committee’s guidelines: 

I Can Do What I Want Parks And Recreation GIF
 

They can do whatever the fuck they want. 

That's my point. Even if your ideal situation happens, it doesn't mean anything if you truly believe there are no rules. It is illogical to simultaneously assert that no rules apply and to assert there is some outcome that must be better for us. Both cannot be true. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Hondo

Hondo 682

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

Yes, this is also a funny thing people miss. If Alabama beats Georgia that only strengthens the fact that Texas's win in Tuscaloosa is the best of the season.

No it doesn't.  You're getting suckered into assuming a transitive relation between football games.

If you go by your logic, Oklahoma's win would be the best of the season because they beat the team that beat the team that beat UGA.

But then Oklahoma State's win over Oklahoma would be the best.  If they beat Texas, then they'll have beaten the team that beat the team that beat UGA AND the team that beat the team that beat the team that beat UGA.  Oklahoma State should be in the CFP.

 

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
troph

troph 24781

Posted
Posted
14 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

Yes, rankings came out today. That's what we've been discussing for the last 3 pages. 

I saw a post here that was “7 mins ago” when I read it asking when they drop and I then googled and only got news about projections. Maybe I fucked up my google search. I’ll try again. Meh. 

  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
The_Great_Hornsby

The_Great_Hornsby 3236

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, Wilcox Cummingtonite said:

If Bama wins a close game against Georgia, both teams are in. No fucking way Georgia gets left out. Not happening.

Rooting for Bama and Oregon is the stupidest thing ever. 

Let's compare the 3 teams:

1. Conference Championship (Bama and Texas) (Bonus point for Texas they beat the SEC champs and are the only team in the field with a win over another playoff team) Tex > Bama > Georgia

2. Head 2 Head (Adv Texas who beat Bama) (Adv Bama who beat Georgia) Tex > Bama > Georgia

Shit this isnt going to well for Georgia, let's move to item 3....

3. Strength of Schedule (Texas > Bama > Georgia)

Well shit there is always...

4. Common Opponents (Adv Texas who beat Bama on the road) (Georgia lost to Bama at a neutral site)

Well there you have it folks, obviously Georgia is going to get in over Texas!!! SEC! SEC! SEC! SEC! SEC!

  • Hook 'Em 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Wilcox Cummingtonite

Wilcox Cummingtonite 2937

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

That's my point. Even if your ideal situation happens, it doesn't mean anything if you truly believe there are no rules. It is illogical to simultaneously assert that no rules apply and to assert there is some outcome that must be better for us. Both cannot be true. 

Fair enough, I think some of us are still scarred from 2008 around here. 
 

Hard to imagine a scenario where we don’t get fucked somehow. Battered Horns Syndrome.

  • Hook 'Em 1
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Hermanator

Hermanator 7032

Posted
Posted (edited)
23 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

There is a flaw in your reasoning. Do you think we are in the conversation at all if we hadn't played Alabama? I'd wager that the primary reason we have a shot is because we played a tough schedule, not in spite of it. 

Absolutely we're in the conversation if we had beaten an in state scrub team instead of Alabama week 2. We'd arguably be in almost the same position we're in now. Alabama would be ranked ahead of us as an undefeated team but the same situation would exist where one of Georgia or them would lose the SEC title game. The difference is we'd be more likely to see 2 SEC teams in no matter who lost where as now it's only possible if Alabama wins. 

We'd still need FSU to lose and we'd need Oregon to win and hope the committee sees how in every conceivable metric we're above Oregon. Same as now. Our chances would be lower simply because the SEC would have 2 undefeated teams instead of 1 but we'd 100 percent be in the conversation. 

Next year it all doesn't matter as the key will be finish the SEC schedule with 2 or fewer losses. Chances are we get in a 12 team playoff with a 10-2 record in the SEC most years. 

Edited by Hermanator
  • Hook 'Em 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
C-Man

C-Man 27197

Posted
Posted
SIAP but I found this simulation run to be interesting. Obviously the human factor the committee provides makes the projections more challenging, but these seem like reasonable outcomes 
 
 
 

Interesting chart. Bottom line is if Michigan, Florida State and Georgia all win, there is no path for Texas.
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Dahobbs

Dahobbs 17527

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Hermanator said:

Absolutely we're in the conversation if we had beaten an in state scrub team instead of Alabama week 2. We'd arguably be in almost the same position we're in now. Alabama would be ranked ahead of us as an undefeated team but the same situation would exist where one of Georgia or them would lose the SEC title game. The difference is we'd be more likely to see 2 SEC teams in no matter who lost where as now it's only possible if Alabama wins. 

We'd still need FSU to lose and we'd need Oregon to win and hope the committee sees how in every conceivable metric we're above Oregon. Same as now. Our chances would be lower simply because the SEC would have 2 undefeated teams instead of 1 but we'd 100 percent be in the conversation. 

Next year it all doesn't matter as the key will be finish the SEC schedule with 2 or fewer losses. Chances are we get in a 12 team playoff with a 10-2 record in the SEC most years. 

Our path in would be much, much narrower. But you do you and be negative. 

  • Hook 'Em 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Beau Vine

Beau Vine 54209

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, Candi Fisther said:

Oregon’s AD is chairman of CFP committee. See y’all at the sugar bowl.

No, he is not.  He's not even on the committee.  NC State's AD is the chair.  Please quit doing this to these desperate rubes...

4 hours ago, dcar00 said:

well that is interesting.

https://collegefootballplayoff.com/sports/selectioncommittee/roster

Link to comment
Share on other sites
MrBig

MrBig 5385

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, immamac said:

The last 5 pages have been the same posts over and over again. It really does feel like some of you may have lost your got damned minds. 

Our heads are exploding. This is reverse 2008. 

We got fucked in 2008 because we beat a “good” OU team. 

We are getting fucked now because we lost to a “shitty” OU team.

  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
dcar00

dcar00 14159

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Hermanator said:

Absolutely we're in the conversation if we had beaten an in state scrub team instead of Alabama week 2. We'd arguably be in almost the same position we're in now. Alabama would be ranked ahead of us as an undefeated team but the same situation would exist where one of Georgia or them would lose the SEC title game. The difference is we'd be more likely to see 2 SEC teams in no matter who lost where as now it's only possible if Alabama wins. 

We'd still need FSU to lose and we'd need Oregon to win and hope the committee sees how in every conceivable metric we're above Oregon. Same as now. Our chances would be lower simply because the SEC would have 2 undefeated teams instead of 1 but we'd 100 percent be in the conversation. 

Next year it all doesn't matter as the key will be finish the SEC schedule with 2 or fewer losses. Chances are we get in a 12 team playoff with a 10-2 record in the SEC most years. 

this. there is no reason to schedule good OOC.  The SEC has proven this over and over again.  Yes you have to only have 1 or zero losses in conf play.  no one punishes you for not giving yourself a "chance" at a loss by scheduling a Minnesota or a Georgia Tech instead of Mich or USC.

Oregon didn't give themselves a chance to be beat by scheduling Portland State.  They played an FCS.  they should be considered 10-1. not 11-1.

they know the committee will just say "sure their SOS sucks and they scheduled FCS Portland State but had they scheduled Boise State they would have beaten them anyway".  
 

The tough OOC game helping in any signficant way is a myth.  the loss column and beating teams by 30+ is what matters.

  • Rage+1 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
F250

F250 28764

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, MonkeyDoughnut said:

The committee has been consistently clear in how they see things this year. Many are chosing not to listen to what they have said.

Oregon > Texas > Bama > Georgia (if ranking one loss teams)

I don't like their order either, but they have been pretty clear.

Agree but I just don't understand the primacy of Oregon in the eyes of the committee.

  • Hook 'Em 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
hook me

hook me 2092

Posted
Posted
48 minutes ago, UTEE97 said:

I feel like the committee is going by the average margin of victory to rank the one-loss teams. It's done in soccer and many other international sports. Can someone check into the average scoring differentials among Oregon, tOSU, Texas and Bama?

I feel like they’re saying “ooo offense score lots points” and acting like the Pac 12 became a good conference at some point. For some reason OSU was essentially a top 10 team for UW & UO to feast on. Their one decent win on the season was at Utah. The rest of the Pac 12 was absolutely overhyped from the jump. USC? trash. Colorado? flash in the pan that anyone with a brain could see but still ended up ranked in the top 20 for UO to smoke. Arizona? Ari-fucking-zona? give me a break. 

You have the UW AD who i bet has a preference on who makes it, the NCST AD as the chair who probably doesn’t want to give FSU any more reason to leave the ACC, and the KSU AD who was chosen by the Big 12 to replace CDC on the playoff committee and was “dumbfounded” when he found out the exit fees weren’t going to be as much as they were expecting.

I have no idea why UT is behind OSU & UO based upon on the field results, but I don’t think margin of score is going to be the deciding factor.

  • Hook 'Em 2
  • Rage+1 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
troph

troph 24781

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Beau Vine said:

No, he is not.  He's not even on the committee.  NC State's AD is the chair.  Please quit doing this to these desperate rubes...

https://collegefootballplayoff.com/sports/selectioncommittee/roster

Lame committee roster, wow. Not as potentially biased against us as I would have thought but the I doubt the Kansas state and Baylor guy are on our side. Token woman is not that impressive geez. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
 Share
Go to topic listing


Football ... Basketball ... Baseball ... Other Sports ... Futbol ... 🤫995🤫 ... Gambling ... Movies & TV ... Music ... Hobbies ... Lulz ... Food & Travel ... Daily Texan ... Business and Markets ... Cloak Room ... Help ... For Sale ... Board Discussion ... Subscribe!... Donate!... Advertise... COOKIE MONSTER!

×
×
  • Create New...