THE College Football Playoff Rankings Thread [MICH,WASH,TEX,ALA]

[TXs 226]

It's laughable that we need a perfect season just to even MAKE the playoffs. If we were in the SEC and not the big12 with the same record this year, it wouldn't even be a debate. 

Edited November 29, 2023 by TXs

[Bevo Num1 1021]

This shit is all about conference representation in the playoffs and I feel like this weekend comes down to ACC vs. Big 12. 

If the top 4 win out, the Big 12 is left out.

If Georgia loses, they slide out of the top 4 and Bama moves up because they beat the two-time defending champion and won the SEC. The fact that we beat their asses in Tuscaloosa by double digits won't mean shit to this committee. 

If Michigan loses, they slide out of the top 4 and Ohio State moves up. It's why they are ahead of us despite both our losses coming to our bitter rivals and us having more Top 25 wins. 

If Washington loses, they slide out and Oregon takes their spot. No need to rehash why Oregon being ahead of us is bullshit.

That leaves Texas and FSU.

If FSU wins, they are in regardless of what Texas does. I don't see the committee leaving out an undefeated Power 5 team. 

A FSU loss and a Texas win, we are in. 

If both FSU and Texas lose, the last remaining spot probably goes to another 11-1 team that lost their conference championship or didn't play (Ohio State). 

[SameSame 1705]

5 minutes ago, TXs said:

It's laughable that we need a perfect season just to even MAKE the playoffs. If we were in the SEC and not the big12 with the same record this year, it wouldn't even be a debate. 

Bama is in the sec, has the same record and there is a debate.

[Js1 85449]

8 minutes ago, TXs said:

It's laughable that we need a perfect season just to even MAKE the playoffs. If we were in the SEC and not the big12 with the same record this year, it wouldn't even be a debate. 

lol no we don’t NEED a perfect season - how many times did OU make it with a loss? Including a loss to 5-7 Texas!

There’s never been a year with 4 undefeated teams after CCG weekend. More just our luck that the one year we are in the discussion in the CFP era, we are behind 4 undefeated teams and a one loss PAC 12 team that passes the eye test more than we do in the ultimate pecking order after the weekend 

Duck fans probably feel a lot like we do, except they have a play-in game on Saturday. Win and in. We just need FSU to lose (and win our game)

[Deej 76858]

31 minutes ago, LTtxfan said:

Yeah, what's up with that @Nicole44 ??? 😁

She's busy down on Rainey at nights, now. 

[Dahobbs 17627]

7 hours ago, Jewish Wang said:

There’s never been a year like this. Hence this talk and argument. I’m not overly concerned with UW losing - mainly because I think Oregon will crush them, and the PAC 12 doesn’t have the cachet that the SEC does. But I’m slightly concerned with a “they’re 1-1 on the season” narrative there. If UGA loses a close one, and FSU and Mich hold serve, you can bet your ass every bit of precedence in the last decade will be debated and challenged. You’re speaking as if UGA being left out is a foregone conclusion, and you’re 100% wrong. This is EXACTLY the year they change that. And rules?  There are no rules. 

So they'll pass up on Oregon and Texas to put in two SEC teams? I mean, that is possible, but it is extremely unlikely and would be completely against precedent. Given that we are in beauty pageant mode in this scenario, I'm not really worried about it. Nothing is guaranteed here, but I think the order of likelihood is Texas/Bama, Oregon/Bama, Texas/Oregon, Texas/Georgia, and then Bama/Georgia. Even if you disagree with this order, this scenario still gives Texas a chance unlike if Georgia and Washington win. Hence the zero reason to root for Georgia and Washington. 

[Tex Pete 20410]

Where is the Big 12 commissioner? Why isn’t he lobbying to get Texas into the playoff if we win Saturday? 

[LonghornBreeder 550]

Does anyone know how the CFP selection committee was formed/selected? I assume the panelists aren't completely independent.

How much piwer do the P5 conferences wield over the selection process? This could all be a case of B12/Yormark relaxing all efforts to lobby for us to make the CFP.

1 minute ago, Tex Pete said:

Where is the Big 12 commissioner? Why isn’t he lobbying to get Texas into the playoff if we win Saturday? 

Lol. Great minds.

[immamac 42877]

43 minutes ago, TXs said:

It's laughable that we need a perfect season just to even MAKE the playoffs. If we were in the SEC and not the big12 with the same record this year, it wouldn't even be a debate. 

This year there are 4 potential undefeated conference champions. Everyone had to be perfect conference be damned. Big XII is the only conference without an undefeated conference champ potentially. If we were undefeated we would be ranked 2 or possibly 1. Put your brains back in your skulls and stop beating a dead horse. The only way in is for FSU to lose or FSU to get left out after we obliterate OSU and pitch a potential shutout and keep the #1 rusher below 30 yards or something insane. 

[Steamboat1874 4075]

2 minutes ago, Tex Pete said:

Where is the Big 12 commissioner? Why isn’t he lobbying to get Texas into the playoff if we win Saturday? 

He left at halftime.

[JBJ 3664]

1 hour ago, gmr548 said:

First and foremost playing OSU helps us in that it would be a colossal fuckup to lose the game. OU, I don’t think tossup is quite right but a loss would be much easier to envision.

A win over OU would help more than OSU though; higher ranked team and you get the avenged loss and beating everyone on the schedule factors. But Texas would still need all of the same help it does now so for me the higher risk of losing isn’t worth it.

OSU probably will stay ranked, the CFP committee has never really punished lower ranked CCG losers that much - which tracks logically. If number 19 or whatever loses to number 7 and doesn’t get completely embarrassed, in my mind that justifies their ranking as opposed to saying they need to be moved down.

Also, racking up stats against weaker teams is what the committee is looking for.

[Rickylovesweed 14533]

I think this is about right. If FSU loses and we win, I think we're definitely getting in. 

 

[Rickylovesweed 14533]

23 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

So they'll pass up on Oregon and Texas to put in two SEC teams? I mean, that is possible, but it is extremely unlikely and would be completely against precedent. Given that we are in beauty pageant mode in this scenario, I'm not really worried about it. Nothing is guaranteed here, but I think the order of likelihood is Texas/Bama, Oregon/Bama, Texas/Oregon, Texas/Georgia, and then Bama/Georgia. Even if you disagree with this order, this scenario still gives Texas a chance unlike if Georgia and Washington win. Hence the zero reason to root for Georgia and Washington. 

There is zero chance Georgia is getting in over Texas with a loss. 

Texas will have a win over a common head to head opponent, Texas SOS will be 25+ spots higher, Texas will have as many or 1 more top 25 win, and Texas will have a conference championship. 

Georgia getting in over Texas with a loss would be absurd. There's no justification at all. 

Edited November 29, 2023 by Rickylovesweed

[Hookem2147 21345]

7 hours ago, C-Man said:

Counterpoint -- scheduling Bama OOC and winning that game is the ONLY thing that really gives us a chance at getting into the playoffs this year. (Now, if we, Bama and Georgia all end up 12-1 and one or both of those go ahead of us, then yes, it will prove that scheduling games like makes little sense.)

The counterpoint to your counterpoint:

If we scheduled Akron instead of Bama, we are very likely 12-0 because all the time and energy we spent for Bama likely gets poured into our other important game (OU). Oklahoma played 3 cupcakes in non con and it allowed them to prep for their Super Bowl for 2 months.

The committee is telling us that being undefeated and style points are more important than who you play. You wanna know how Oregon got all these style points? They played the 50th hardest schedule in the country. Hard to get a bunch of style points when you have a top 10 SOS.

[Js1 85449]

8 minutes ago, Rickylovesweed said:

I think this is about right. If FSU loses and we win, I think we're definitely getting in. 

 

It’s just so simple and easy. Just win and FSU loses. 

[HookEm 2467]

If Oregon, Texas and Alabama all win it is going to get very interesting.  Texas win over Alabama will look even better when Bama is #4-#5 after beating Georgia.  Oregon's loss will look a lot worse when Washington drops to 12-1 and ~#8.  We will still have the best win of the year.  

Bama's miracle win over Auburn could be the thing that keeps them out of the playoffs.  I put the odds at 50/50 that we get in over Alabama and the SEC is left out - as crazy as that sounds.

[immamac 42877]

Guys stop it. The only actual path that isn’t chaos and some crazy bullshit is FSU losing or Texas leapfrogging and bumping FSU out. That’s it. Those are the only 2 non chaos conspiracy theory ways in. 

There is 5 power conferences. All of the champions for them can’t be in, but 4 of them will absolutely be in this one barring complete chaos on Friday/saturday. 

[immamac 42877]

Just now, HookEm said:

If Oregon, Texas and Alabama all win it is going to get very interesting.  Texas win over Alabama will look even better when Bama is #4-#5 after beating Georgia.  Oregon's loss will look a lot worse when Washington drops to 12-1 and ~#8.  We will still have the best win of the year.  

Bama's miracle win over Auburn could be the thing that keeps them out of the playoffs.  I put the odds at 50/50 that we get in over Alabama and the SEC is left out - as crazy as that sounds.

There is a 0.0% chance Texas is in over a 12-1 Oregon Pac12 champ. Pull your head out of your ass. 

[hook me 2103]

2 minutes ago, immamac said:

There is a 0.0% chance Texas is in over a 12-1 Oregon Pac12 champ. Pull your head out of your ass. 

Last nights rankings made this abundantly clear to anyone, like myself, who held on to the hope that a Bama win + UT dominating OSU would cause us both to leapfrog UO. That's definitely not happening. Bama beating UGA would be almost catastrophic for the committee... I hope it happens for that reason alone.

[markstanco 12586]

There is a flaw in your reasoning. Do you think we are in the conversation at all if we hadn't played Alabama? I'd wager that the primary reason we have a shot is because we played a tough schedule, not in spite of it. 

They would just swap bama and texas giving that bama would have lost to somebody else.

[markstanco 12586]

The last 5 pages have been the same posts over and over again. It really does feel like some of you may have lost your got damned minds. 

I already said that

[jimmyjazz 46000]

7 minutes ago, immamac said:

Guys stop it. The only actual path that isn’t chaos and some crazy bullshit is FSU losing or Texas leapfrogging and bumping FSU out. That’s it. Those are the only 2 non chaos conspiracy theory ways in. 

There is 5 power conferences. All of the champions for them can’t be in, but 4 of them will absolutely be in this one barring complete chaos on Friday/saturday. 

Are you actually wanting less traffic on your website?

One thing I never thought I'd see:  the national media actually seems to see Texas' case and is openly stating that we are about to get turbo-fucked.  Pigs do fly.

[HookEm 2467]

8 minutes ago, immamac said:

There is a 0.0% chance Texas is in over a 12-1 Oregon Pac12 champ. Pull your head out of your ass. 

I agree if Georgia wins.  There is no chance we get in over Oregon if it is a straight up decision.

But if Bama wins, I think that changes the calculation.  If we all win, they will have to decide whether to leave out the SEC, leave us out who beat Bama, or leave out the PAC 12. I think in that case Oregon COULD lose out. 

In that scenario, I put the odds of losing out at:

• Bama - 40% 
• Texas - 35%
• Oregon - 25%

Bama might jump us, but I don't think it is a certainty at all.

Edited November 29, 2023 by HookEm

[Dahobbs 17627]

7 minutes ago, immamac said:

There is a 0.0% chance Texas is in over a 12-1 Oregon Pac12 champ. Pull your head out of your ass. 

There is a good chance of it. The committee will have to pick 2 of Alabama, Oregon, and Texas. If it picks Alabama, it'll have to really struggle to exclude Texas. If it doesn't pick Alabama, then it'll have to include Texas. Current rankings mean absolutely nothing. 

[Red Five 40877]

9 minutes ago, immamac said:

There is a 0.0% chance Texas is in over a 12-1 Oregon Pac12 champ. Pull your head out of your ass. 

Not true, as explained above. 

[Texasborn91 941]

Well one thing in our favor is we get our game out of the way early in the day… so FSU will have all day to think about tripping up on their dicks in prime time. 

[NashLonghorn 272]

1 hour ago, Rockethorn1978 said:

Either way still need fsu and Oregon to lose and we will be in. If Ohio st makes it even if we win then we will know like we already do that the committee is driven by eye test only. 

Ohio State’s eye test is 20/400 or has glaucoma 

[NashLonghorn 272]

1 hour ago, BurntOrange&White said:

If FSU loses Oregon/Washing result doesn't matter.

Not if the refs have anything to do with it.  If FSU loses the ACC is out millions.  Not gonna happen. 

[GabrielsHorn 2186]

1 hour ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

Brett isnt that sharp lol

He’s a Poke

[bolverk 29695]

In light of the predictor, let's look at this in order of the games themselves.

FRIDAY NIGHT:
OREGON (75.8%) vs WASHINGTON (24.2%)
The winner of this game will go to the playoffs. No ifs, ands, or buts. Who wins this game has zero bearing on whether or not Texas gets in.
The loser is going to another bowl. While Oregon is heavily favored, I still kind of want Washington to win as a middle finger to the fucking committee.

SATURDAY NOON:
TEXAS (88.1%) vs OKLAHOMA ST (11.9%)
We're heavily favored. Let's win it convincingly to pass any "eyeball test" after the results of the day.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON:
GEORGIA (52.1%) vs ALABAMA (47.9%)
This game is obviously a toss-up, but we want Alabama to win because Texas has scoreboard. If Georgia wins, then Louisville MUST win for us to be in the playoffs. According to the predictor, if Alabama wins, Texas can still get in even with a Louisville loss. But it requires faith that the committee will follow logic, so let's hope Texas has laid the wood on Okie Lite to put to rest any "eyeball test" competition between Bama and us.

SATURDAY NIGHT:
FLORIDA STATE (74.4%) vs LOUISVILLE (25.6%)
We all know we want Louisville to win, regardless of the outcome of any other game, as it would guarantee Texas gets into the playoffs. I think it will all boil down to quarterback play. If Plummer has a solid game and FSU's backup is shaky, Louisville can pull this off. 

 

[Rickylovesweed 14533]

4 minutes ago, NashLonghorn said:

Not if the refs have anything to do with it.  If FSU loses the ACC is out millions.  Not gonna happen. 

I don't agree at all. 

Rodemaker was 12/25 for 134 yards last weekend against Florida and Louisville has a substantially better defense. I really don't understand why there are people that think this is a lock for FSU.

I actually think Louisville is the favorite in this game. 

[TexasEd 8067]

41 minutes ago, Rickylovesweed said:

There is zero chance Georgia is getting in over Texas with a loss. 

Texas will have a win over a common head to head opponent, Texas SOS will be 25+ spots higher, Texas will have as many or 1 more top 25 win, and Texas will have a conference championship. 

Georgia getting in over Texas with a loss would be absurd. There's no justification at all. 

Now do 1 loss Oregon 

 

you’re applying math and logic where the committee has shown that it’s a popularity contest or an eye test 

Edited November 29, 2023 by TexasEd

[Js1 85449]

21 minutes ago, HookEm said:

I agree if Georgia wins.  There is no chance we get in over Oregon if it is a straight up decision.

But if Bama wins, I think that changes the calculation.  If we all win, they will have to decide whether to leave out the SEC, leave us out who beat Bama, or leave out the PAC 12. I think in that case Oregon COULD lose out. 

In that scenario, I put the odds of losing out at:

• Bama - 40% 
• Texas - 35%
• Oregon - 25%

Bama might jump us, but I don't think it is a certainty at all.

ESPN has the odds of a CFP without the SEC at 22%, which is pretty high to me. Requires your scenario, but they leave out Bama. Seems too high to me but it’s clearly a computer spot that out without human media SEC bias 

[HookEm 2467]

I put our odds as follows:

• Texas wins (85%) plus

• FSU loses (40%) - 100% we are in  (.340)
• Michigan loses (10%) - 100% we are in  (0.085)
• Bama wins (35%) - 50% chance we are in  (0.149)
• Oregon wins (75%) - 5% chance we are in (0.032)

The odds that at least ONE of the above of the above events happens is ~45%.  That is pretty close to our +130 Vegas odds for making the CFP.

[Rickylovesweed 14533]

3 minutes ago, TexasEd said:

Now do Oregon 

I'm not worried about the Oregon and Washington game. The loser won't be in the playoffs over Texas. Worrying about Oregon seems nonsensical to me. 

1) Pac 12 team

2) SEC team

3) Michigan

4) FSU or Texas

But I will say I think there's also a chance Texas gets in with a FSU win if Bama beats Georgia. 

1) Pac 12 team

2) Texas

3) Michigan 

4) FSU

 

 

 

[NeverMarryAStripper 21912]

39 minutes ago, Hookem2147 said:

The counterpoint to your counterpoint:

If we scheduled Akron instead of Bama, we are very likely 12-0 because all the time and energy we spent for Bama likely gets poured into our other important game (OU). Oklahoma played 3 cupcakes in non con and it allowed them to prep for their Super Bowl for 2 months.

Which then caused them to go out and lose to Kansas

[Rickylovesweed 14533]

7 minutes ago, Js1 said:

ESPN has the odds of a CFP without the SEC at 22%, which is pretty high to me. Requires your scenario, but they leave out Bama. Seems too high to me but it’s clearly a computer spot that out without human media SEC bias 

I don't think it's high because if Bama wins there will be a major conundrum. 

I still say it's very unlikely Bama gets in over Texas with a win over Georgia. They were hyping the fuck out of H2H last night. 

[mannewers 551]

Herby, Finebaum and probably others are starting to question FSU even if they win. Fact is, they lost their QB and are not looking like a team that will be competitive in the CFP.

https://www.espn.com/video/clip?id=39004786

I don't see the committee having the stones to leave them out but there may be enough noise for them to justify the move.

 

[HookEm 2467]

Revised using the odds Bolverk's posted... 

• Texas wins (88%) plus

• FSU loses (25.6%) - 100% we are in  (.225)
• Michigan loses (10%) - 100% we are in  (0.088)
• Bama wins (47.9%) - 50% chance we are in  (0.211)
• Oregon wins (75.8%) - 5% chance we are in (0.033)

The odds that at least ONE of the above of the above events happens is ~46%.  

[Hondo 682]

24 minutes ago, immamac said:

There is a 0.0% chance Texas is in over a 12-1 Oregon Pac12 champ. Pull your head out of your ass. 

Agreed, but you're going to get all kinds of pushback on this one.

 

My opinion:  

Oregon is already ahead of Texas.

Oregon beats #3 Washington to win their conference.

Texas beats #18 Oklahoma State to win theirs.

Thinking this results in Texas going in ahead of Oregon is absurd.

 

There's a ton of pretzel logic, wish casting, and transitive relation application in this thread.  It's rather amusing to see it prefaced with "you're a fucking idiot" and then closed out with "period/full stop." 

This is a great example of "choose your words carefully; you may have to eat them later."  I think the better teams will win this weekend, but there's still potential for a lot of people making "zero chance, full stop" predictions and calling people stupid to have egg on their faces.

 

[Red Five 40877]

1 minute ago, HookEm said:

Revised using the odds Bolverk's posted... 

• Texas wins (88%) plus

• FSU loses (25.6%) - 100% we are in  (.225)
• Michigan loses (10%) - 100% we are in  (0.088)
• Bama wins (47.9%) - 50% chance we are in  (0.211)
• Oregon wins (75.8%) - 5% chance we are in (0.033)

The odds that at least ONE of the above of the above events happens is ~46%.  

I feel like there's a greater chance than 25% that FSU loses that game. 

[TexasEd 8067]

4 minutes ago, Rickylovesweed said:

I'm not worried about the Oregon and Washington game. The loser won't be in the playoffs over Texas. Worrying about Oregon seems nonsensical to me. 

1) Pac 12 team

2) SEC team

3) Michigan

4) FSU or Texas

But I will say I think there's also a chance Texas gets in with a FSU win if Bama beats Georgia. 

1) Pac 12 team

2) Texas

3) Michigan 

4) FSU

 

 

 

I meant do the rankings for why Oregon is ahead of Texas using the same math as the post I quoted 

[Rickylovesweed 14533]

I think these are the results we want this weekend (not including Texas winning of course).

1) FSU L

2) Oregon L but I don't think this matters either way. The Pac 12 is getting a team in and the loser will be out. 

3) Michigan L

4) Georgia L. This  is the tough one. I still think we're getting in over Bama due to H2H so I think Bama winning this is in our best interest. I believe we get in over Bama and Georgia if Georgia loses. 

Edited November 29, 2023 by Rickylovesweed

[Horndog 2228]

Can anyone explain to me why Oregon is considered to be a better team than UW? Is there an objective basis for that, or is it just that the Bo Nix has a high completion rate? It seems to me that the ascent of Oregon is largely the result of their beat down of an overhyped Colorado team. 

[Red Five 40877]

1 minute ago, Hondo said:

This is a great example of "choose your words carefully; you may have to eat them later."  I think the better teams will win this weekend, but there's still potential for a lot of people making "zero chance, full stop" predictions and calling people stupid to have egg on their faces.

You started this post by agreeing with someone who, wrongly, is claiming the chance of something happening is zero. 

[Rickylovesweed 14533]

3 minutes ago, Horndog said:

Can anyone explain to me why Oregon is considered to be a better team than UW? Is there an objective basis for that, or is it just that the Bo Nix has a high completion rate? It seems to me that the ascent of Oregon is largely the result of their beat down of an overhyped Colorado team. 

Washington has struggled for like 6 weeks straight. They're squeaking by with wins. 

[immamac 42877]

1 minute ago, Red Five said:

You started this post by agreeing with someone who, wrongly, is claiming the chance of something happening is zero. 

I’ll bet the board on it. 

[JBJ 3664]

53 minutes ago, Rickylovesweed said:

I think this is about right. If FSU loses and we win, I think we're definitely getting in. 

 

This is almost exactly what my model has.  I give Washington a bit more of a chance to win though.

[Biff Tannen 45695]

So I see this thread hasn't calmed down at all.  

[gmr548 16590]

Not if the refs have anything to do with it.  If FSU loses the ACC is out millions.  Not gonna happen. 

Weird this board loves to ignore this when complaining about the Big 12