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THE College Football Playoff Rankings Thread [MICH,WASH,TEX,ALA]


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10 minutes ago, mwaadeeb said:

I'm thinking its a genuine lack of misunderstanding, which would mean I understand. 

Actually I don't. Everyone keeps talking about head to head and strength of schedule and I honestly thought there was / must be something written down that says these things are considered. You're saying there's no stated criteria?

 

I'm saying they can consider those, but there's nothing that says they MUST go by it. 

 

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4 minutes ago, Pancho said:

 

I'm saying they can consider those, but there's nothing that says they MUST go by it. 

 

When circumstances at the margins indicate that teams are comparable, then the following criteria must be considered:

  • Championships won
  • Strength of schedule
  • Head‐to‐head competition (if it occurred)
  • Comparative outcomes of common opponents (without incenting margin of victory)

. METRICS

  • There will not be one single metric to assist the selection committee. Rather, the committee will consider a wide variety of data and information.

 

Not sure you understand what "must" means, Pancho.

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2 minutes ago, mwaadeeb said:

When circumstances at the margins indicate that teams are comparable, then the following criteria must be considered:

  • Championships won
  • Strength of schedule
  • Head‐to‐head competition (if it occurred)
  • Comparative outcomes of common opponents (without incenting margin of victory)

. METRICS

  • There will not be one single metric to assist the selection committee. Rather, the committee will consider a wide variety of data and information.

 

Not sure you understand what "must" means, Pancho.

 

Dude, it’s saying you must consider it. It’s not saying you MUST abide by it. How do you not see that. 

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48 minutes ago, Texas Wahoo said:

Even that is debatable.  Is beating UGA (12-1), Ole Miss (10-2), LSU (9-3), and Tennessee (8-4), A&M (6-6), Arkansas, Kentucky, Auburn, Miss State really much better than beating Bama (12-1), KState (9-3), OU (10-2)/OSU (9-3), Kansas (8-4), ISU (6-6), Tech, TCU, Houston, BYU this year?

I don't see how that is close to enough of a difference to outweigh a 10 point road win head-to-head.

This and the Oregon lack of SOS are what I keep drum beating on .

If Bama beats Georgia that should only strengthen our case since we beat Bama at home.

 

If none of that matters let's just schedule la tech or some crappy California teams for recruiting and be done with it 

Edited by BigHornedLurker
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13 minutes ago, Texas Wahoo said:

All of the Big Noon Kickoff People pick tOSU and Michigan to both make the CFP except for Urban Meyer, who picks both Oregon and Washington instead...

image.png.c8a1a83bb111ec314a8390c1a386e204.png

My bet is that OSU beats UM by 2 TDs or more, and Michigan quietly goes away. 

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1 minute ago, Pancho said:

 

Dude, it’s saying you must consider it. It’s not saying you MUST abide by it. How do you not see that. 

Stop moving the goalposts. You said they "can" consider it but they don't have to consider it. Turns out they do have to consider it. You were wrong and you're being a cunt.

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19 minutes ago, Texas Wahoo said:

All of the Big Noon Kickoff People pick tOSU and Michigan to both make the CFP except for Urban Meyer, who picks both Oregon and Washington instead...

image.png.c8a1a83bb111ec314a8390c1a386e204.png

The loser of the Big Game is out.  They won't have won their division and would likely be up against teams who won their CCGs or played in them and lost. They would need a lot of chaos to happen to get them in:

  • Georgia, Alabama, Texas, Oregon and UW all lose this week
  • Texas loses to (insert team) in the Big 12 championship
  • Arizona beats UW in the Pac 12 CCG
  • Alabama beats Georgia in the SECCG
  • FSU loses to UF and Louisville

Then very likely the loser of the Big Game could slide in, because the CFP loves a 1-loss team, even if they didn't win their division. 

Edited by Js1
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8 minutes ago, Pancho said:

 

Dude, it’s saying you must consider it. It’s not saying you MUST abide by it. How do you not see that. 

Well even if they consider it, that doesn't mean that they are going apply the same weight evenly or go on some kind of mathematical order.

The use of the word "must" doesn’t really mean anything when the margins are so close.

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4 minutes ago, mwaadeeb said:

Stop moving the goalposts. You said they "can" consider it but they don't have to consider it. Turns out they do have to consider it. You were wrong and you're being a cunt.

What goalposts lol? My thesis is still the same—the committee cna do whatever the fuck they want with no oversight. Arguing can consider and must consider doesn’t change the fact that they don’t have to abide by whatever they considered and can pick whoever the fuck 4 teams they believe are warranted. 

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Just now, Jiggy-Z said:

Well even if they consider it, that doesn't mean that they are going apply the same weight evenly or go on some kind of mathematical order.

The use of the word "must" doesn’t really mean anything when the margins are so close.

Correct. The weight of what they consider changes based on who is on the committee. It could be more, it could be less. That’s why going by past years precedent isn’t very helpful for this year. 

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1 minute ago, Js1 said:

The loser of the Big Game is out.  They won't have won their division. They would need a lot of chaos to happen to get them in:

  • Georgia, Alabama, Texas, Oregon and UW all lose this week
  • Texas loses to (insert team) in the Big 12 championship
  • Arizona beats UW in the Pac 12 CCG
  • Alabama beats Georgia in the SECCG
  • FSU loses to UF and Louisville

Then very likely the loser of the Big Game could slide in, because the CFP loves a 1-loss team, even if they didn't win their division. 

I think the simpler way they get in would be for three of the following to happen: (1) FSU to lose one of their last two games, (2) Texas to lose one of their last two games, (3) Georgia to beat Bama, and (4) Washington to beat Oregon.

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1 hour ago, blutow said:

Yeah, 13-1 is a great year any way you slice it, but missing CFP with that record (and the nature of our 1 loss) would suck.  Even with a really good team, it's hard to get through a season with that record.  When the stars align, you absolutely want to take your shot.  We'd be a dangerous team in the playoffs.  The only potential downside would be a blowout loss, but even that is probably better than a meaningless bowl game where many key players on both teams would probably be sitting out.

    

..and except for the feels, a win might be meaningless.

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I haven't read all this but -- and this is just my own wishful thinking -- has it been discussed if Texas wins out but the teams ahead don't all fall as needed, does not having our starting QB and not having one of the top RBs in the country for the last few games help Texas' case?

If I were on the committee (they invited me but I was busy spatchcocking my bird, if you know what I mean) I'd consider a team that won despite significant starting offensive players going out to be better than one that won with it's full complement -- other points being relatively equal.

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3 minutes ago, Pancho said:

What goalposts lol? My thesis is still the same—the committee cna do whatever the fuck they want with no oversight. Arguing can consider and must consider doesn’t change the fact that they don’t have to abide by whatever they considered and can pick whoever the fuck 4 teams they believe are warranted. 

julia louis-dreyfus nincompoop GIF by Veep HBO

Nobody's arguing they can't do what they want. But they do have stated criteria that they "must" use, which means they will use it. Saying they won't is conspiracy level silliness. If it's still a close call then of course eyeballs and biases come into play. I think our TV power will hold a lot of weight.

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Just now, Js1 said:

It feels absolutely fitting that the one season we are good enough to be in the conversation in the CFP era, in the last year of the 4-team playoff, there's 8 teams who can argue for making it in. 

 

actually there isn't. We lost a game so we have to wait to see what other do. That's 100% on us and nobody else. Texas would be in the top 4 with a strong argument for #1 had we not lost to OU. 

Right now the only teams with an argument to be in the playoff are the undefeated teams. 

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1 minute ago, mwaadeeb said:

Nobody's arguing they can't do what they want. But they do have stated criteria that they "must" use, which means they will use it. Saying they won't is conspiracy level silliness. If it's still a close call then of course eyeballs and biases come into play. I think our TV power will hold a lot of weight.

It says “must CONSIDER” not must use. 

 

Frustrated Selina Meyer GIF

 

EDIT: And I don’t think there’s a conspiracy, but I think there are a significant number of Texas fans who will think there is if we don’t get in. If we don’t make it in, well we have no one to blame but ourselves. Frankly, I’m already resigned to the idea that we will be playing Missouri in the Cotton Bowl; however, I’ve been wrong before and I’ll be wrong again sometime in the future. 😎

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Even that is debatable.  Is beating UGA (12-1), Ole Miss (10-2), LSU (9-3), and Tennessee (8-4), A&M (6-6), Arkansas, Kentucky, Auburn, Miss State really much better than beating Bama (12-1), KState (9-3), OU (10-2)/OSU (9-3), Kansas (8-4), ISU (6-6), Tech, TCU, Houston, BYU this year?
I don't see how that is close to enough of a difference to outweigh a 10 point road win head-to-head.

Well I said I don’t think it is enough to make up for the H2H, but Ole Miss and LSU are better wins than K State and OU/OSU.

The logic gets a little circular here but Georgia is as at least as good of a win as the Bama win. The loss to Texas isn’t as bad as Texas’s loss to OU. Everyone else both teams have played are not worth mentioning. Average to bad.

I think in a blind Team A vs Team B without the context of head to head, you lean Bama. But of course, H2H very much happened and Texas should get the nod if the chips fall that way.
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What are you, a lawyer?
Almost all of these CFP scenarios have us on the outside looking in and my attitude is I don't care. If we went 13-1 but didn't get into CFP as the first team out, I'm okay with that because what a great fucking season that is. One of the best ever? I don't know, but still great. Probably one of the top 15-20 considering where we've been over the last decade+.
Do I hope we make CFP? Yes. Do I hope we win CFP? Yes. My point was it sounds like a lot of you are already doomsaying if we don't make CFP and I was just curious if I'm the only one here not doomsaying...because if we were to finish 13-1 but miss CFP, I would be okay with that.
And, bro, don't go throwing around aggy at me. I'm the third consecutive generation of my family to hang a diploma from The University of Texas at Austin on my wall and there's a National Championship ring in my immediate family. You can call me dumass. You can call me idoit. You can call me moran. But don't call me aggy.

Well it looks like you didn’t mean to say you *wanted* to avoid the playoff, so I don’t think the aggy bit applies. “If” is an important word
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actually there isn't. We lost a game so we have to wait to see what other do. That's 100% on us and nobody else. Texas would be in the top 4 with a strong argument for #1 had we not lost to OU. 
Right now the only teams with an argument to be in the playoff are the undefeated teams. 

There has never been a playoff with 4 undefeated teams. There has been no season in history where a last second loss during a rivalry game to a top 15 team would have kept us out of the playoffs except for potentially this one.

You are correct that we did this to ourselves, but his point still stands that this is rotten luck.
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4 minutes ago, The Dog said:

actually there isn't. We lost a game so we have to wait to see what other do. That's 100% on us and nobody else. Texas would be in the top 4 with a strong argument for #1 had we not lost to OU. 

Right now the only teams with an argument to be in the playoff are the undefeated teams. 

Chelsea Peretti Eye Roll GIF by Brooklyn Nine-Nine

This thread has become so fucking pedantic.

ACTUALLY and BUT keeps doing a lot of work in this thread.  You know exactly what I mean, dude.  A 12-1 Texas is going to have a stronger argument for making it over 12-1 Bama and 12-1 Oregon.  if those 4 teams all finish undefeated, then damn, something that has never happened finally happens and it's all moo. 

I am basing "8 teams in contention" on assuming that 4 teams are not going to finish undefeated because it has never happened. 

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13 minutes ago, Js1 said:

A 12-1 Texas is going to have a stronger argument for making it over 12-1 Bama and 12-1 Oregon. 

 

2 minutes ago, longhornmatt said:

Those same tv talking heads listing Michigan and Ohio State, or Oregon and Washington, will immediately turn on the losers of those games in the coming weeks.  

Everyone needs to accept these two statements as absolute truth before posting.

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21 minutes ago, gmr548 said:


Well I said I don’t think it is enough to make up for the H2H, but Ole Miss and LSU are better wins than K State and OU/OSU.

The logic gets a little circular here but Georgia is as at least as good of a win as the Bama win. The loss to Texas isn’t as bad as Texas’s loss to OU. Everyone else both teams have played are not worth mentioning. Average to bad.

I think in a blind Team A vs Team B without the context of head to head, you lean Bama. But of course, H2H very much happened and Texas should get the nod if the chips fall that way.

Again, I'm not sure I agree.  Is beating UGA at a neutral cite as good as being Bama on the road?  Both will be wins over 12-1 SEC schools, which Bama having played a tougher schedule and having a much better best win than UGA. 

Ole Miss' best win is LSU and then what - Tulane without their QB?  A&M?  LSU's best win by far is Mizzou and then what - A&M again assuming they win this week?

KSU lost on the road on a last second 60+ yard field goal to Mizzou and their best win is Kansas or maybe Iowa State?  OU's best win is obviously Texas and then one of ISU, WVU, or possibly SMU (who is similar to Tulane).  OSU's best win is obviously OU and then KSU.

 

I'm not seeing Bama's best wins as better than Texas,' other than in name.

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46 minutes ago, Pancho said:

What goalposts lol? My thesis is still the same—the committee cna do whatever the fuck they want with no oversight. Arguing can consider and must consider doesn’t change the fact that they don’t have to abide by whatever they considered and can pick whoever the fuck 4 teams they believe are warranted. 

julia louis-dreyfus nincompoop GIF by Veep HBO

This whole argument is silly.  It all started with MW's statement that "Of course style point matter, but they don't replace (or shouldn't) stated criteria," which I agree with.  The committee can do whatever the fuck they want and put in tOSU vs. Michigan because they like helmet stickers and stripes, but they should do it based on the stated criteria that they say they must consider, like championships, head-to-head, and strength of schedule.

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29 minutes ago, Texas Wahoo said:

Again, I'm not sure I agree.  Is beating UGA at a neutral cite as good as being Bama on the road?  Both will be wins over 12-1 SEC schools, which Bama having played a tougher schedule and having a much better best win than UGA. 

Ole Miss' best win is LSU and then what - Tulane without their QB?  A&M?  LSU's best win by far is Mizzou and then what - A&M again assuming they win this week?

KSU lost on the road on a last second 60+ yard field goal to Mizzou and their best win is Kansas or maybe Iowa State?  OU's best win is obviously Texas and then one of ISU, WVU, or possibly SMU (who is similar to Tulane).  OSU's best win is obviously OU and then KSU.

 

I'm not seeing Bama's best wins as better than Texas,' other than in name.

To put the schedules into prespective: Wyoming would be Bama's 6th most difficult game.  The resumes aren't even close. It's not even really a debate.

Edited by JBJ
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54 minutes ago, perfectchaos007 said:

I’m going to hold off on lobbying for our résumé until there are fewer than 4 undefeated Power5 teams left. I know that 4 undefeated teams in the CFP has never happened, but this has been a historically chalky season so I’m prepared for disappointment 

this is where I'm at.

It's also why I think we are overdue for some chaos. 

1 hour ago, Texas Wahoo said:

All of the Big Noon Kickoff People pick tOSU and Michigan to both make the CFP except for Urban Meyer, who picks both Oregon and Washington instead...

image.png.c8a1a83bb111ec314a8390c1a386e204.png

these are all feasible but requires both Alabama and Texas to lose one of their next two. 

Here's some chaos - what if all of Oregon, Texas, and Alabama lose this weekend.

Then Oregon (with 2 losses) beats Washington in the Pac 12 title game and Iowa beats the winner of Michigan/Ohio State and Texas/Alabama both win their conferences. Florida State then loses to Louisville in the ACC title game.

That gives us the following scenario:

Iowa, Oregon, Texas, and Alabama would be 2-loss conference champions. 

Florida State, Ohio State, Georgia, Washington, and Michigan would be 1 loss teams that didn't win their conference. 

The only 1 loss conference champ would be Louisville!

So who goes to the playoffs? 

Edited by The Dog
made more chaotic
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The question of "How upsetting is to get left out of the playoff as a 12-1 conference champion?" keeps circling in my head. It certainly would suck at the time, but I would still be happy with our team, if we won an NY6 Bowl in a convincing fashion. The only thing that still upsets me about the season and would certainly continue to upset me if the above nightmare scenario played out is that we couldn't stop Dillon Gabriel from marching down the field with 1:15 left in the game. At that time, we had taken the lead and had kept them out of the endzone for 24 minutes of game clock (since 10:21 in 3Q). And then the defense just fucking collapsed when it mattered the most. Like many posters above have already said, that falls squarely on our shoulders.

Another thing I've always felt strongly about is having a rule precluding conference non champions from participating in the playoff if the team they lost to is in the playoff. There are five P5 conferences and only four playoff spots. The immediate rematch bullshit needs to stop. If there are only four spots, one loss conference champions should not be at risk of getting left out to two teams that already played a head to head game in the same conference. There should be no risk of having a Michigan-Ohio State or Oregon-Washington rematch in the playoff while a one loss Texas sits at home and watches. Thankfully this shouldn't be a factor when we have an adult sized playoff bracket next year.

Edited by USNALonghorn
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4 hours ago, AnotherLawyer said:

Honest question: am I the only one here who would be okay with a 13-1 season where we missed CFP? I imagine I'll get crucified for this.

 

36 minutes ago, USNALonghorn said:

The question of "How upsetting is to get left out of the playoff as a 12-1 conference champion?" keeps circling in my head. It certainly would suck at the time, but I would still be happy with our team, if we won an NY6 Bowl in a convincing fashion. The only thing that still upsets me about the season and would certainly continue to upset me if the above nightmare scenario played out is that we couldn't stop Dillon Gabriel from marching down the field with 1:15 left in the game. At that time, we had taken the lead and had kept them out of the endzone for 24 minutes of game clock (since 10:21 in 3Q). And then the defense just fucking collapsed when it mattered the most. Like many posters above have already said, that falls squarely on our shoulders.

Another thing I've always felt strongly about is having a rule precluding conference non champions from participating in the playoff if the team they lost to is in the playoff. There are five P5 conferences and only four playoff spots. The immediate rematch bullshit needs to stop. If there are only four spots, one loss conference champions should not be at risk of getting left out to two teams that already played a head to head game in the same conference. There should be no risk of having a Michigan-Ohio State or Oregon-Washington rematch in the playoff while a one loss Texas sits at home and watches. Thankfully this shouldn't be a factor when we have an adult sized playoff bracket next year.

I’m “OK” with missing the playoffs at 12-1 if that’s how the chips fall, because that would undoubtedly be a very successful season. Winning the Big 12 on the way out was the goal for this year, and it’s two wins away.

However it would be incredibly annoying, and frankly unlucky, if we’re left out at 12-1, considering OU reached the playoffs FOUR times at 12-1, and TCU did last year. Yeah they mostly got blown out of the playoffs in humiliating fashion, but they got in. This is the last chance to get into the 4-team CFP, and I badly wanna make it, even if we’d be an underdog to win it all.

Edited by LonghornSean
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3 hours ago, Texas Wahoo said:

Even that is debatable.  Is beating UGA (12-1), Ole Miss (10-2), LSU (9-3), and Tennessee (8-4), A&M (6-6), Arkansas, Kentucky, Auburn, Miss State really much better than beating Bama (12-1), KState (9-3), OU (10-2)/OSU (9-3), Kansas (8-4), ISU (6-6), Tech, TCU, Houston, BYU this year?

I don't see how that is close to enough of a difference to outweigh a 10 point road win head-to-head.

SECSECSEC

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31 minutes ago, LonghornSean said:

However it would be incredibly annoying, and frankly unlucky, if we’re left out at 12-1, considering OU reached the playoffs FOUR times at 12-1, and TCU did last year

This.  An undisputed 1-loss Big 12 champ has never been left out*, so it would be frankly annoying

2015 - 11-1 OU made it with a loss to a bad Texas team (no champ game in the Big 12)
2017 - 12-1 OU made it with a loss to an unranked ISU
2018 - 12-1 OU made it with a loss to Texas and rematch CCG win over Texas
2019 - 12-1 OU made it with a loss to unraked KSU
2022 - 12-1 TCU made it with a CCG loss to KSU

2023 - 12-1 Texas with a loss to top 15 OU - ???

*Not counting 2014 with the co-champ BS

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2 hours ago, Chuckie Finster said:


There has never been a playoff with 4 undefeated teams. There has been no season in history where a last second loss during a rivalry game to a top 15 team would have kept us out of the playoffs except for potentially this one.

You are correct that we did this to ourselves, but his point still stands that this is rotten luck.

2008 says hi.

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I don't agree with an undefeated team being a given over a 1-loss team.  It's always been that way, but I don't agree with it. Being undefeated is a sacred cow and overrated. If you are undefeated because you played a shit schedule, is that really better than a team that played superior competition and only lost one game?  What I'm thinking of here specifically is the argument between Texas and FSU if both win out. Or even FSU v. Oregon if Oregon wins the Pac12. I think it is really dumb that we determine the football champion by a committee vote to make a four team playoff. But, if it was my decision, it would be a simple question of "If Team A played Team B today, who would win?"  I would use resume' heavily in answering that question. I think Texas would beat FSU today, so they should get in over FSU if it comes down to one or the other.

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3 minutes ago, Vertigo said:

In the CFP Era

yeah, I know.  it was a 2 team playoff then.  just pointing out we keep getting hosed with one loss.

It still amazes me that LSU got to play in the 2 team playoff with 2 losses.  fucking coonasses.

Edited by dcar00
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5 hours ago, AnotherLawyer said:

Honest question: am I the only one here who would be okay with a 13-1 season where we missed CFP? I imagine I'll get crucified for this.

Okay? Fuck yeah we (Texas Fans)would all eventually get there.

Would I be disappointed... sure. But 13-1 ain't bad and might be a net positive for the program. Being left out of CFP would rocket fuel to our players' drive for next year.

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3 hours ago, Horndog said:

My bet is that OSU beats UM by 2 TDs or more, and Michigan quietly goes away. 

The only way I could see Michigan sliding back in would be if Iowa pulled a rabbit out of their hat and beat OSU in the Big 10 title game. But I feel like if Michigan loses The Game, the committee might bury them given the controversy surrounding the program right now. Stick them down around 8-9 to make sure they can't sneak back in. 

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3 hours ago, Js1 said:

It feels absolutely fitting that the one season we are good enough to be in the conversation in the CFP era, in the last year of the 4-team playoff, there's 8 teams who can argue for making it in. 

 

My initial reaction is that this is normal at this stage so I went and looked at historic CFP rankings.

Last year at this point there there were four unbeatens, 1-loss Clemson and USC, and a 2-loss LSU that had played its way into consideration. 2021 had unbeaten Georgia and Cincinnati plus six 1-loss P5 teams. Skipping 2020 bc COVID, 2019 had three unbeatens and six 1-loss P5 teams. 2018 had three P5 unbeatens, unbeaten UCF, and 5 1-loss P5 teams; and again a 2-loss LSU was hanging out in the top 7 for some reason.

I don't think there's anything particularly special about this year.

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1 hour ago, Ojo Rojo said:

I don't agree with an undefeated team being a given over a 1-loss team.  It's always been that way, but I don't agree with it. Being undefeated is a sacred cow and overrated. If you are undefeated because you played a shit schedule, is that really better than a team that played superior competition and only lost one game?  What I'm thinking of here specifically is the argument between Texas and FSU if both win out. Or even FSU v. Oregon if Oregon wins the Pac12. I think it is really dumb that we determine the football champion by a committee vote to make a four team playoff. But, if it was my decision, it would be a simple question of "If Team A played Team B today, who would win?"  I would use resume' heavily in answering that question. I think Texas would beat FSU today, so they should get in over FSU if it comes down to one or the other.

Okay, but how do you answer the simple question of who would beat who outside of a committee or computer rankings?

Besides, by this logic Texas vs FSU isn't even a CFP debate, it's the Fiesta Bowl or something. Georgia, Ohio State, Michigan, and Oregon are your CFP teams here and you could entertain Washington.

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