THE College Football Playoff Rankings Thread [MICH,WASH,TEX,ALA]

[Jewish Wang 111]

1 minute ago, JGrayDBU said:

Tech has a winning record, correct? Hate to say this, but we need to beat Tech by at least 28 points, and we all know that is NOT gonna happen.  We might lead Tech by 28 in the first half, but then close it out by winning by 10 or less. 

I don't think margin of victory means as much in the Rig 12 game, though.  A 12-1 Texas that finally got motivated and destroyed Tech to me theoretically means we are in.  Under that scenario, I am not worried a bit.  If we beat tech by 14 or less, and win in the Rig 12 game by a small amount, there is a reasonable chance we're left out, but we can't say we didn't know it was coming. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I can see a 42-14 type game of Tech and frankly in CCG, and it not mattering. I think a bare minimum is beating Tech convincingly and also a decisive win in CCG game. But then we will need loads of help. With 60-0 blowouts in each game, I think that is something that changes our course. Look at OSU over Wisconsin in B1G CCG 59-0 in 2014 when they were decidedly behind TCU and. Baylor. That propelled them, a lot of people in Texas were pissed and OSU went on to win championship. 

We have shown zero ability to blow teams out this season. 

[Beau Vine 54005]

31 minutes ago, JBJ said:

You aren't posting the odds that you think you are.

Those would imply UGA has a ~30% chance to make the playoffs.

Those look more like the odds to win the playoff -- Michigan +260 and tOSU +600 makes no sense.   One of those teams will make the playoffs.  So you bet $100 on each, and you either return $260 or $600 on a $200 investment?  Draft Kings isn't that stupid.

[Red Five 40666]

1 hour ago, Jewish Wang said:

ESPN has us at 29% if we win out, which sounds more reasonable:

Well if we win out then there are a bunch of different combinations that get us in. FSU losing to either Florida or Louisville alone gets us in. So 29% is dumb. 

[hook me 2080]

43 minutes ago, Jewish Wang said:

No oddsmaker would have us ahead of Bama

Team	DraftKings	FanDuel	BetMGM	Caesars	bet365
Georgia	+240	+230	+225	+240	+225
Michigan	+260	+280 🔥	+275	+240 ❄️	+240
Ohio State	+600	+500	+500	+700 🔥	+500
Oregon	+600 ❄️	+650	+700	+700	+650
Alabama	+700	+750	+700	+750	+700
Texas	+1300 ❄️	+1400	+1400	+1400	+1400
Washington	+1500 🔥	+1300	+1200	+1400 🔥	+1200
Florida State	+3000	+3000	+3300 🔥	+1400 ❄️	+2800
Louisville	+15000	+17000 🔥	+10000	+10000	+15000
Iowa	+100000	+100000	+50000	+200000 🔥	N/A

Team	DraftKings	FanDuel	BetMGM	Caesars	bet365
Georgia	-340 🔥	-360	-350	-350	-360
Michigan	-220	-260 ❄️	-250	-210 🔥	-250
Oregon	-170	-180	-175	-170	-180
Ohio State	+105	-105	+100	+110 🔥	-125 ❄️
Texas	+130 🔥	+125	+125	+125	+100 ❄️
Florida State	+140	+130 ❄️	+135	+140	+160 🔥
Washington	+150 ❄️	+170	+160	+160	+170
Alabama	+165	+145	+150	+170 🔥	+140 ❄️
Louisville	+1500	+1300 ❄️	+1400	+1600 🔥	+1400

 

You're looking at odds to WIN the CFP, not make it. 

Edited November 22, 2023 by hook me

[Pam Cummings 9582]

Georgia/Bama and Mich/OSU are de facto playoff games. The losers of these games aren't getting in over 1 loss conference champion Texas if it comes down to it. Can't believe that actually needed to be explained.

[Jewish Wang 111]

13 minutes ago, Beau Vine said:

Those look more like the odds to win the playoff -- Michigan +260 and tOSU +600 makes no sense.   One of those teams will make the playoffs.  So you bet $100 on each, and you either return $260 or $600 on a $200 investment?  Draft Kings isn't that stupid.

They are. Not apples to apples on my part. Sorry. 

[Js1 85115]

2 minutes ago, Pam Cummings said:

Georgia/Bama and Mich/OSU are de facto playoff games. The losers of these games aren't getting in over 1 loss conference champion Texas if it comes down to it. Can't believe that actually needed to be explained.

[hook me 2080]

4 minutes ago, Pam Cummings said:

Georgia/Bama and Mich/OSU are de facto playoff games. The losers of these games aren't getting in over 1 loss conference champion Texas if it comes down to it. Can't believe that actually needed to be explained.

If only it needed to be explained. Explanation isn't enough, apparently it needs to be beaten into some peoples heads with a fucking 4x4.

"But but but this one site has numbers and stuff!" As if simply have "%" next to a names makes a shit.

[Beau Vine 54005]

9 minutes ago, Pam Cummings said:

Georgia/Bama and Mich/OSU are de facto playoff games.

So why was Mich/OSU not a de facto playoff game last year?  Why wasn't UGa/Bama a de facto playoff game the year before?

[Vertigo 20267]

5 minutes ago, hook me said:

If only it needed to be explained. Explanation isn't enough, apparently it needs to be beaten into some peoples heads with a fucking 4x4.

"But but but this one site has numbers and stuff!" As if simply have "%" next to a names makes a shit.

[bullet 1596]

1 hour ago, Jewish Wang said:

No oddsmaker would have us ahead of Bama

Team	DraftKings	FanDuel	BetMGM	Caesars	bet365
Georgia	+240	+230	+225	+240	+225
Michigan	+260	+280 🔥	+275	+240 ❄️	+240
Ohio State	+600	+500	+500	+700 🔥	+500
Oregon	+600 ❄️	+650	+700	+700	+650
Alabama	+700	+750	+700	+750	+700
Texas	+1300 ❄️	+1400	+1400	+1400	+1400
Washington	+1500 🔥	+1300	+1200	+1400 🔥	+1200
Florida State	+3000	+3000	+3300 🔥	+1400 ❄️	+2800
Louisville	+15000	+17000 🔥	+10000	+10000	+15000
Iowa	+100000	+100000	+50000	+200000 🔥	N/A

That just shows that Bama fans are delusional.  Washington, Oregon, FSU and Texas have a lot better odds of winning out than Bama does of beating Georgia.

Odds makers don't pick who wins.  They guess how people will bet.  My Dad had a friend in Kentucky who said there was no more sure way to make money than to take the points and bet against Kentucky basketball, because there are a lot of UK fans and they will almost always bet on Kentucky beating the spread.

[hook me 2080]

3 minutes ago, Beau Vine said:

So why was Mich/OSU not a de facto playoff game last year?  Why wasn't UGa/Bama a de facto playoff game the year before?

OSU/UM was an elimination game until USC got their brains kicked in by Utah in the Pac 12 championship

Same thing for UGA/Bama in 2021 when OSU lost to BU in the Big 12 championship.

That's why they said " 1 loss conference champion Texas". If UT loses either of the last 2 games then there's a great chance that the OSU/UM loser gets in or UGA if they lose to Bama.

[Wishbone 4739]

Y’all can argue about this shit all day. The bottom line is we need to only be concerned about winning our fucking games in front of us. Otherwise it doesn’t make a shit. Then we can only see what that does for us.

[Park Gothic 4981]

21 minutes ago, Vertigo said:

You ignorant slut. 

That's clearly a 2x4. 

[Dnaguy 11777]

2 minutes ago, Wishbone said:

Y’all can argue about this shit all day. The bottom line is we need to only be concerned about winning our fucking games in front of us. Otherwise it doesn’t make a shit. Then we can only see what that does for us.

So just to be clear.... we should root for a victory.

We don't want Texas to lose?

Just making sure I have my marching orders.

[Wishbone 4739]

1 minute ago, Dnaguy said:

So just to be clear.... we should root for a victory.

We don't want Texas to lose?

Just making sure I have my marching orders.

Brilliant! Carry on.

I realize of course it’s fun to run scenario’s, but in the end that’s the only thing in our control. 

[Make em eat Taco Bell 1549]

The winner of Bama/GA is the national champion unless Texas makes the CFP whereby Texas will beat either team. 

[Wishbone 4739]

7 minutes ago, Make em eat Taco Bell said:

The winner of Bama/GA is the national champion unless Texas makes the CFP whereby Texas will beat either team. 

I’d like our chances given the time off to heal up in some spots and game plan should it get to that opportunity.

[Jewish Wang 111]

57 minutes ago, Pam Cummings said:

Georgia/Bama and Mich/OSU are de facto playoff games. The losers of these games aren't getting in over 1 loss conference champion Texas if it comes down to it. Can't believe that actually needed to be explained.

Mich/OSU yes, unless crazy shit happens. I hope it doesn’t come to this, but I’m almost certain Bama winning SEC creates chaos to the point of UGA remaining in. I’m not saying this is how it should occur; I’m saying this is how it will most likely happen particularly if we keep playing with our food. 

47 minutes ago, Beau Vine said:

So why was Mich/OSU not a de facto playoff game last year?  Why wasn't UGa/Bama a de facto playoff game the year before?

Different year with less qualified teams 5-8. Also the USC dismantling in the P12 CCG. 

26 minutes ago, Wishbone said:

Y’all can argue about this shit all day. The bottom line is we need to only be concerned about winning our fucking games in front of us. Otherwise it doesn’t make a shit. Then we can only see what that does for us.

I forgot temporarily we were all players for the Texas team, that this was a message board, and that this isn’t America. I’m sorry pal. 

Edited November 22, 2023 by Jewish Wang

[Jewish Wang 111]

4 minutes ago, Wishbone said:

I’d like our chances given the time off to heal up in some spots and game plan should it get to that opportunity.

I do too particularly with CJ looking so good last week. I still don’t think JT is 100%, haven’t kept up with Worthy’s status and I know Quinn isn’t 100%. 

[Wishbone 4739]

2 minutes ago, Jewish Wang said:

Mich/OSU yes, unless crazy shit happens. I hope it doesn’t come to this, but I’m almost certain Bama winning SEC creates chaos to the point of UGA remaining in. I’m not saying this is how it should occur; I’m saying this is how it will most likely happen particularly if we keep playing with our food. 

Different year with less qualified teams 5-8. Also the USC dismantling in the P12 CCG. 

I forgot temporarily we were all players for the Texas team, that this was a message board, and that this isn’t America. I’m sorry pal. 

It’s ok. We’ll all get through it. Whatever comes.

[hornbri 1375]

2 hours ago, Jewish Wang said:

Correct. Look at Vegas odds. We are 6th to make it. Right on par with UW (at #7) and decidedly ahead of FSU, interestingly. Decidedly BEHIND Bama at #5. And of course UGA, but that’s not representative about the SEC CCG loser argument I’m making. 

You know that has more to do with the odds of each of those teams winning out than anything else right? I bet the odds of Texas winning its next two games and the odds of Texas making the playoffs are virtually equal. 

[blutow 222]

35 minutes ago, Wishbone said:

Y’all can argue about this shit all day. The bottom line is we need to only be concerned about winning our fucking games in front of us. Otherwise it doesn’t make a shit. Then we can only see what that does for us.

It's the first time in the CFP era that we've been able to argue about this shit in late November.  I'm gonna get my $'s worth.  Nothing that is said about anything on this site makes a shit.  

[Bodacious Bevo 3576]

6 minutes ago, hornbri said:

You know that has more to do with the odds of each of those teams winning out than anything else right? I bet the odds of Texas winning its next two games and the odds of Texas making the playoffs are virtually equal. 

These are the Big 12 title odds. That's not exactly the same as us winning out, but it converts to a 67.7% implied probability. 

Using the numbers from above, we're +130 to make the CFP. 43.5% implied probability. 

So, Vegas gives us about a 2/3 chance to make it if we win the conference. That would be a higher shot if we were to win the conference undefeated. 

Note that FSU's implied probability to make the CFP is 41.7% based on +140. That's a pretty clear tradeoff to me. It's us or them with there also being some chaos scenarios where we both make it. 

[Wishbone 4739]

3 minutes ago, blutow said:

It's the first time in the CFP era that we've been able to argue about this shit in late November.  I'm gonna get my $'s worth.  Nothing that is said about anything on this site makes a shit.  

Kinda my point. I do get it. And as I said, I realize that’s fun to do. It will get more fun if we get a couple more wins.

[Bodacious Bevo 3576]

17 minutes ago, Bodacious Bevo said:

These are the Big 12 title odds. That's not exactly the same as us winning out, but it converts to a 67.7% implied probability. 

Using the numbers from above, we're +130 to make the CFP. 43.5% implied probability. 

So, Vegas gives us about a 2/3 chance to make it if we win the conference. That would be a higher shot if we were to win the conference undefeated. 

Note that FSU's implied probability to make the CFP is 41.7% based on +140. That's a pretty clear tradeoff to me. It's us or them with there also being some chaos scenarios where we both make it. 

Furthermore, look at selection history. Unless I'm missing something, and this is my first time looking at this chart so I might be, no 0/1-loss conference champ has ever been passed up for a non-champ (excluding Notre Dame of course). The years OSU/Bama/UGA/TCU made it as non-champs had at least two 2-loss conference champs

Edited November 22, 2023 by Bodacious Bevo

[hornbri 1375]

5 minutes ago, Wishbone said:

Kinda my point. I do get it. And as I said, I realize that’s fun to do. It will get more fun if we get a couple more wins.

Should any of these scenarios play out the internet debate for the 12-14 hours from the last game on the 2nd to the announcement on then 3rd are going to be fun. 

[Pound Town 21]

2 hours ago, Jewish Wang said:

No oddsmaker would have us ahead of Bama

Team	DraftKings	FanDuel	BetMGM	Caesars	bet365
Georgia	+240	+230	+225	+240	+225
Michigan	+260	+280 🔥	+275	+240 ❄️	+240
Ohio State	+600	+500	+500	+700 🔥	+500
Oregon	+600 ❄️	+650	+700	+700	+650
Alabama	+700	+750	+700	+750	+700
Texas	+1300 ❄️	+1400	+1400	+1400	+1400
Washington	+1500 🔥	+1300	+1200	+1400 🔥	+1200
Florida State	+3000	+3000	+3300 🔥	+1400 ❄️	+2800
Louisville	+15000	+17000 🔥	+10000	+10000	+15000
Iowa	+100000	+100000	+50000	+200000 🔥	N/A

Likely a function of what would happen if they made the playoff 

[Js1 85115]

17 minutes ago, Bodacious Bevo said:

Furthermore, look at selection history. Unless I'm missing something, and this is my first time looking at this chart so I might be, no 0/1-loss conference champ has ever been passed up for a non-champ (excluding Notre Dame of course). The years OSU/Bama/UGA/TCU made it as non-champs had at least two 2-loss conference champs

Undefeated > 1 loss champ > 1 loss non-champ or non-division winner > 2 loss champ 

Thats been the MO of the committee for 9 seasons 

[oh_snap 694]

It’s also the last year of the four team playoff. Nobody should be shocked if the committee does something stupid or unprecedented in the last version. Who are they accountable to?

[The Original Greaser Bob 2799]

8 minutes ago, oh_snap said:

Who are they accountable to?

Motherfucker in the middle.

[Pancho 44487]

It’s absolutely being talked about among analysts that if Georgia loses to Alabama they should still—and could still—be in the top 4 along with Alabama. The only people “guaranteeing” that not happening are the “insiders” on this website. 

 

[The Dog 43808]

7 minutes ago, Pancho said:

It’s absolutely being talked about among analysts that if Georgia loses to Alabama they should still—and could still—be in the top 4 along with Alabama. The only people “guaranteeing” that not happening are the “insiders” on this website. 

 

That's because everyone is anchoring to what Georgia was and not what they are. They are pushing a narrative to get clicks and views and isn't rounded in reality.

Georgia is in the same boat as Michigan in that their schedule is trash. That likely keeps them out if they don't win the conference title game.

[Pancho 44487]

5 minutes ago, The Dog said:

That's because everyone is anchoring to what Georgia was and not what they are. They are pushing a narrative to get clicks and views and isn't rounded in reality.

Georgia is in the same boat as Michigan in that their schedule is trash. That likely keeps them out if they don't win the conference title game.

I don’t agree here. They are pushing Georgia because they truly believe Georgia is the best team in the country. To just say they wants clicks and views and it likely keeps them out is just a wish and hope, just like we wish and hope FSU loses. 

But, you’re right in that we won’t know until the rankings are revealed. I guess my only issue with some posters is the guaranteeing and the thought that they know exactly what will happen if a certain team wins or loses and none of us know what the committee will do.  We know what they will consider but we don’t know what they are guaranteed to do. 

 

[oh_snap 694]

3 minutes ago, The Dog said:

That's because everyone is anchoring to what Georgia was and not what they are. They are pushing a narrative to get clicks and views and isn't rounded in reality.

Georgia is in the same boat as Michigan in that their schedule is trash. That likely keeps them out if they don't win the conference title game.

So you’re saying there’s a chance…. Nobody is banging on the table saying with 100000% certainty that Bama and Georgia are both in with a bama win. Just that things get really fucking dicey. 

I envy those that don’t have to live life with PTSD from the 2008 fuckery. 

[The_Great_Hornsby 3329]

13 minutes ago, The Dog said:

That's because everyone is anchoring to what Georgia was and not what they are. They are pushing a narrative to get clicks and views and isn't rounded in reality.

Georgia is in the same boat as Michigan in that their schedule is trash. That likely keeps them out if they don't win the conference title game.

Correct, all arguments, including the dumbfuck ones I see on this site are all centered around an emotional argument that "her der, Georgia is the 2 time defending champz guyz, we cant leave them out" and not centered around the fact that Texas would have a much stronger SOS, a much stronger resume because they would have not only a conference championship while Georgia does not, but they would also be the only team in the field with a win over another conference champion, oh yeah, and that conference champion they beat was a road game and the team that just beat Georgia. I suppose you could make a weak ass argument that Georgia has the better loss, but again, that would fall flat because of the fact they literally lost to a team we beat. Georgia is playing their QF game against Bama, if they lose, they are going to be out. 

[hook me 2080]

13 minutes ago, oh_snap said:

So you’re saying there’s a chance…. Nobody is banging on the table saying with 100000% certainty that Bama and Georgia are both in with a bama win. Just that things get really fucking dicey. 

I envy those that don’t have to live life with PTSD from the 2008 fuckery. 

That's exactly what a poster is doing

4 hours ago, Jewish Wang said:

This is 100% wrong. Bama must be eliminated because with a win, both Bama and UGA will be ahead of us and both likely make the playoff. It is crazy people think this would benefit us - and legitimately think we’d be ahead of UGA if this happens. Our win wouldn’t be devalued at all (unless a blowout) with the clear #1 beating them - and us, and nobody else. 

 

4 hours ago, Jewish Wang said:

A 12-1, 2-time defending champ UGA with 22 wins in a row prior to getting knocked off by Bama absolutely gets in over us. You’re crazy if you think otherwise. 

I suspect a UM or OSU team that didn’t make its CCG does not. But I don’t know that. 

 

4 hours ago, Jewish Wang said:

Maybe, but it won’t be to put Texas in. UGA would still be ahead of us. Bama winning is disastrous, and the cute, contrarian thinking about this game is insane to me. 

 

[Pancho 44487]

Who here is arguing for Georgia to be in if they lose? I see media people doing that, but I haven’t seen that here. 

I have seen people say that’s still a possibility (which it is) and that doesn’t mean they want them in or they deserve to be in. People may be just recognizing it’s still a possibility. 

[Jewish Wang 111]

1 hour ago, hook me said:

That's exactly what a poster is doing

 

 

 

Nah. I’m not guaranteeing anything. I said I suspect it will happen and have bet as such. I may be coming across with hyperbole because there are posters here - most in fact - that dismiss this possibility as not plausible, which is ignoring reality. 

[mwaadeeb 1152]

11 minutes ago, Jewish Wang said:

Nah. I’m not guaranteeing anything. I said I suspect it will happen and have bet as such. I may be coming across with hyperbole because there are posters here - most in fact - that dismiss this possibility as not plausible, which is ignoring reality. 

Dude you've been telling people they are crazy, insane, delusional and 100 percent wrong for thinking a one loss Bama or Georgia won't get in over us. Own it or stfu.

 

Edited November 23, 2023 by mwaadeeb

[Red Five 40666]

If we go 12-1 and win the conference, with our only loss coming almost two months prior at the last minute vs OU.... and two SEC teams get in, including one we beat in their stadium by 10, and we get left out.... I'm burning down all of North America. 

[blutow 222]

I'm not sure the committee share's his view of the world, but pretty good perspective from Pate here.

  

[The_Great_Hornsby 3329]

44 minutes ago, blutow said:

I'm not sure the committee share's his view of the world, but pretty good perspective from Pate here.

  

Great segment. He didnt even entertain the thought of a 1 loss Georgia going over Texas. Mainly because he has an IQ above room temperature. 

[immamac 42521]

1 hour ago, Red Five said:

If we go 12-1 and win the conference, with our only loss coming almost two months prior at the last minute vs OU.... and two SEC teams get in, including one we beat in their stadium by 10, and we get left out.... I'm burning down all of North America. 

Everyone needs to put the crack pipe down. The biggest brand in college football losing in the last 12 seconds of a top 3 rivalry game to a then top 10 ranked Oklahoma at a neutral site in October when their starting center and several key players go down early in a self induced shitfest of a game then running the table and winning the conference outright with so much parity and a strong ooc schedule which includes a win by double digits away at night against a top 7 ranked Alabama who’s only loss is Texas is not getting left out if the playoff. That is actually a billion dollar fuck up if they leave Texas out. Do you realize the economic impact of having Texas in the playoff? Have any of you run the numbers? On this site alone it would probably triple revenue for 3 weeks if not more and the chance to have Texas play in Houston for name your price tickets + additionally economic impact around and attributed to that specific fan base is absolutely astronomical and cannot be ignored. 

[tx 3 putt 76409]

1 hour ago, Red Five said:

If we go 12-1 and win the conference, with our only loss coming almost two months prior at the last minute vs OU.... and two SEC teams get in, including one we beat in their stadium by 10, and we get left out.... I'm burning down all of North America. 

im good with only one sec teaM in the playoffs being a permanent rule 

[Dbeasy 14970]

On 11/21/2023 at 1:05 PM, Texas Wahoo said:

All of the Big Noon Kickoff People pick tOSU and Michigan to both make the CFP except for Urban Meyer, who picks both Oregon and Washington instead...

This is what you call a compromised viewpoint. They are with Fox. Of course they want two from the Big 10. That’s bullshit. 

[Dbeasy 14970]

4 minutes ago, immamac said:

Everyone needs to put the crack pipe down. The biggest brand in college football losing in the last 12 seconds of a top 3 rivalry game to a then top 10 ranked Oklahoma at a neutral site in October when their starting center and several key players go down early in a self induced shitfest of a game then running the table and winning the conference outright with so much parity and a strong ooc schedule which includes a win by double digits away at night against a top 7 ranked Alabama who’s only loss is Texas is not getting left out if the playoff. That is actually a billion dollar fuck up if they leave Texas out. Do you realize the economic impact of having Texas in the playoff? Have any of you run the numbers? On this site alone it would probably triple revenue for 3 weeks if not more and the chance to have Texas play in Houston for name your price tickets + additionally economic impact around and attributed to that specific fan base is absolutely astronomical and cannot be ignored. 

Georgia won’t get in over Texas if they lose, but Bama likely will, leaving Texas and FSU on the bubble and most think FSU gets it. 

[George 487]

52 minutes ago, blutow said:

I'm not sure the committee share's his view of the world, but pretty good perspective from Pate here.

  

So in this thread he’s not a moron?

[tx 3 putt 76409]

6 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

This is what you call a compromised viewpoint. They are with Fox. Of course they want two from the Big 10. That’s bullshit. 

if it’s a close game, I don’t think the losing team drops that much but can ut jump them ?

[The_Great_Hornsby 3329]

5 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

Georgia won’t get in over Texas if they lose, but Bama likely will, leaving Texas and FSU on the bubble and most think FSU gets it. 

I really dont think Bama will go over Texas. We beat them on the field. That will be too much to overcome. They will fuck over Oregon before they leave out Bama and Texas. If somehow Washington is undefeated and Oregon isnt an option to screw, then I would say slight advantage to Texas. That is the committee's worst nightmare situation.