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THE College Football Playoff Rankings Thread [MICH,WASH,TEX,ALA]

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USNALonghorn

USNALonghorn 5155

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I the one loss Bama over one loss Texas scenario plays out, then we should change our non-conference scheduling approach. We’re going to be in the big bad SEC, getting the favorable ranking inflation anyway. Why should we torture ourselves and keep scheduling OOC blue bloods if we’re not at all rewarded for it? There’s no reason for our athletes to take the extra beating when we could schedule a cupcake and save them for what will be a bigger playoff bracket.

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ousux

ousux 5635

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I agree completely that logically one loss Texas should get in over 1 loss SEC champ Alabama. But I’ve seen way too many sportswriter opinions that without hesitation say Bama is in, leaving Texas on the bubble. That’s why I’ve said probable.
The Texas fan base doesn’t see it as probable and I can see why. But if you look at it from a national perspective, many on the committee will justify it via improvement thru the year by Bama vs Texas having too many close calls.
This will leave one loss Texas to be compared to undefeated FSU. Some writers will feel wrong putting Bama ahead of Texas and then may try to fix it by putting Texas ahead of FSU. However, I don’t think enough will do that and Texas gets hosed. 
This is exactly the way I'm thinking right now, hope I'm wrong.
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ousux

ousux 5635

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You’re not wrong that talking heads are pushing that narrative. However, there is also the narrative that doing so would mean head to head match ups don’t mean shit, and would the committee and college football in general be okay with that idea. I’m not so sure. Hence the pushback that probable should be possible 
’
 
Or they could take the stance that expanding to 12 next season makes committee decisions less weighty...and why not do something different in the last year of 4 teams? Different as in put in a one less non-conference champion due to the perception they're better than whoever would otherwise get in. (Texas)
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oh_snap

oh_snap 694

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12 minutes ago, Left Coast said:

Oregon is not UT’s competition to get in the CFP at this point.  Assuming UW gets by Wazzu the PAC 12 champ is in.

UT’s path goes through FSU or (less likely) Bama.

There is no fucking way Oregon makes the CFP and Texas doesn’t if we win next weekend in Arlington.

No. fucking. way.

 

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Hondo

Hondo 692

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On 11/20/2023 at 9:52 PM, DigDug said:

Woah woah do I have anything to add?  You're the dipshit.  I know more about this football team and this university and I'm guessing sports in general than you can come close to.  You made a stupid statement and you got checked.  

You should ease up on your tough guy routine, sport.  You're a fucking lightweight behind your computer.  I'd stay there lest you become even lighter.

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bullet

bullet 1627

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12 hours ago, blutow said:

Yeah, I think the one loss Bama vs. Texas debate is a total shot in the dark and could fall either way.  Logically it should be Texas, but we all know the committee members have agendas they are pushing and there are no hard rules.  But I still think Bama winning out can only help Texas.  I know anything is possible, but a 1 loss (non-champ) Georgia getting in as a 2nd SEC team (over a 1 loss champ Texas or Oregon) is way, way off the deep end in my opinion.  The only situations I can remember that a P5 non-champ has gotten in over a champ is when the conference champ has 2 or more losses.  

What the talking heads seem to forget is that if Alabama beats Georgia, we STILL have a better win than Alabama since they will be ranked ahead of Georgia.

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NameAlreadyInUse

NameAlreadyInUse 5164

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We're all Beavers fans again this weekend?
I mean... who's not amiright?!
200.gif

My fandom of beaver is highly conditional to very specific situations. Do I need some help stopping a river from flooding? Hell yeah I love me some beavers. Do I need to remove some doubt for the CFP committee? Fuck yeah go beavs! Otherwise, nah.
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TKthunder2

TKthunder2 5058

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I’m of the opinion that Texas only gets left out if there are 4 undefeated teams. Undefeated Big Ten champ, UGA, Washington, and FSU is the only way we don’t make it in as Big 12 champs. The committee likes easy solutions. 4 undefeated champions is an easy solution.

If Bama or Oregon wins I don’t see us getting left out now that we have head to head and better win over common opponent. These CCG are defacto playoff play-in games, the losers will not be considered if there are enough 0-1 loss champs to seed.

If Bama and Oregon win I see the PAC12 getting the same treatment as the Big 12 did back when Ohio State jumped Baylor/TCU. You’d have undefeated Big Ten champ, FSU, Texas, Bama with Oregon out as #5 (what a dream draw).

Texas and Bama played OOC, if you leave out Texas you’re telling teams that winning a huge OOC game gets you no credit and if you leave out Bama you’re punishing them for losing a big OOC game. The easy answer is to include BOTH and leave out the team whose best OOC win was against tech.

The PAC12 was/is overrated. Their best P5 OOC wins all came against 6-6 tech or a 6-5 Wisconsin, and their 3rd best team Arizona lost to Mississippi State who isn’t even going bowling. Those early season PAC12 wins against Michigan St, TCU, Nebraska, Florida, and Baylor were fool’s gold. I think this is the easiest out for the committee, PLUS who the fuck is going to care about the PAC12 after this year anyways? A dead conference can’t really rock the boat going forward.

Plus as always I go back to brands value. Oregon is the lesser brands of the group (like Baylor/TCU were a decade ago) so backing into a playoff that has Texas in a playoff with the SEC champ and B1G champ is too tempting to TV.

They could screw FSU out of a spot, but I have a hard time seeing them get dropped if the survive the next 8 days unscathed. But again TV$ may win out over justice/ethics this case.

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USNALonghorn

USNALonghorn 5155

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35 minutes ago, n64ra said:

I hope you're right but don't like Oregon being ahead of us already.

The committee has shown before that they’re not at all hesitant to shake up the rankings after conference championship weekend. We need to win big next weekend and for there to be a maximum of three undefeated teams left. We need to be the biggest Florida fans this weekend.

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hornbri

hornbri 1504

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4 minutes ago, Deej said:

One of the GameDay chumps just said they'd put Bama in ahead of Texas because although we beat them in week 2, Texas wants no part of Bama now. 

 

Idiots. 

Yeah but at the same time Kirk was saying we were in if we win next week and the debate would be between Oregon and an undefeated FSU. 

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mdmost

mdmost 43850

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There's no way you leave FSU out if they win out. The regular season has to matter. They beat an SEC team in week 1. It has to matter that teams like FSU and Texas choose to not be pussies and play tough OOC opponents. Yeah the ACC isn't great but they would've have beaten everyone they were asked to beat. We had our chance and couldn't beat OU. I do not think we should leapfrog them in any way. Now if it comes down to us or Oregon, hell yes we should go in. Portland f'ing State. Hawaii. Yeah, they won in Lubbock which we know isn't easy. Now try winning in Tuscaloosa, Oregon. 

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Al Bundy's Napoleon Hand

Al Bundy's Napoleon Hand 13619

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19 hours ago, USNALonghorn said:

We’re going to be in the big bad SEC, getting the favorable ranking inflation anyway. Why should we torture ourselves and keep scheduling OOC blue bloods if we’re not at all rewarded for it?

If a one loss Bama gets in over a one loss Texas there's a long term risk no blue bloods will schedule quality OOC opponents turning September into a snoozefest of games.

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Js1

Js1 86939

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All else being equal, I do not see the PAC or SEC or B1G getting 2 in, even if Alabama beats Georgia. 

It’s a weird year where all 5 P5 conferences have at least one contender, so if you assume all 5 P5 conf champs are 13-0 or 12-1, one will get left out. But a 12-1 conf champ isn’t being left out for a non-champ or non-division winner, even if it’s SEC runner up Georgia.

Conference championships have to matter when you stack 12-1 teams side to side

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USNALonghorn

USNALonghorn 5155

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1 minute ago, Red Five said:

"Texas beat Alabama by 10 in their stadium".

"Yeah but that was in September."

I keep hearing a variation of that. How fucking nice for us, when that game/trip is all risk and no reward. So dumb.

So apparently there’s an arbitrary point in the season where games start to matter…

 

Such a bullshit argument.

Edited by USNALonghorn
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mdmost

mdmost 43850

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1 minute ago, USNALonghorn said:

So apparently there’s an arbitrary point in the season where games start to matter…

Head to head matters until it doesn't to get the team you shill for in the playoff. Stupid Mark Ingram was talking about how great our win was in Tuscaloosa when it looked like Bama was going to start flaming out. Now it doesn't matter to him because he wants his team in. 

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Pancho

Pancho 46054

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6 minutes ago, Red Five said:

"Texas beat Alabama by 10 in their stadium".

"Yeah but that was in September."

I keep hearing a variation of that. How fucking nice for us, when that game/trip is all risk and no reward. So dumb.

It’s like Dusty was telling Pasch last night—if you’re going to use that argument (Alabama is better now than in week 2) and not give Texas credit for going in to Tuscaloosa and beating then, then what is the point of playing those types of games?

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hook me

hook me 2140

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2 minutes ago, Red Five said:

"Texas beat Alabama by 10 in their stadium".

"Yeah but that was in September."

I keep hearing a variation of that. How fucking nice for us, when that game/trip is all risk and no reward. So dumb.

I don't understand the whole "it was early in the season so it's not as big of a deal" argument. You had all summer & fall to prep for us. You had an entirely healthy team, home field advantage, & and a home cupcake the week before to work out the kinks. How is that less impressive than had we walked into Tuscaloosa this week and beat the shit out of you after you've played an entire season & had the film to study your offense & injuries to hamper your team? I get that teams can get better as they find a rhythm throughout the season, but that mindset is idiotic. I'm fine with a loss late in the season weighing against you more, but a win early in the season shouldn't be discounted simply because it was early otherwise there's no use in scheduling them anymore. Just play 3 cupcakes & get into conference play & the networks can bitch & moan to the playoff committee about how they devalued the first quarter of the season with this bullshit if it works out that way.

FTR I think UGA handles Bama so it won't be an issue, but it's bullshit to even have to discuss.

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Wilcox Cummingtonite

Wilcox Cummingtonite 3542

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Just now, The_Great_Hornsby said:

What did he say? He is a Bama homer and has the IQ of a brick, so I am sure it was something stupid af

Basically said Texas’ win against Bama didn’t matter now because it was in September and that we want no part of them now. Made a huge ass out of himself to the point where Leinart was telling him to chill out.

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The_Great_Hornsby

The_Great_Hornsby 3586

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Playoff scenarios that would put Texas in the playoff 100%:

1) Florida State loses to either Florida/Louisville (ACC misses playoff) 

Scenarios where the committee will determine our fate:

2) Bama beats Georgia, Texas gets the nod over a 1 loss Pac 12 Champ Oregon by virtue of a H2H road win against the SEC champ (PAC misses playoff)

3) Bama beats Georgia, Texas gets the nod over Bama by virtue of a H2H road win (assuming Washington wins out, SEC misses the playoff)

4) Georgia beats Bama, we win beauty contest with Oregon (PAC misses playoff)

Highly unlikely but technically still possible:

PAC misses playoff:

5) Washington loses to Wazzu, then beats Oregon in the PAC champ (Texas goes over 1 loss PAC champion Wash)

SEC misses playoff:

6) Georgia loses to Bama and Bama loses to Auburn prior to that result (SEC misses playoff)

Big 10 misses playoffs scenario:

7) Ohio St/Mich winner loses the Big 10 champ game to Iowa (lol) (Big 10 misses playoff)

 

Situations 1: 100% that Texas would get in. 

Situations 2, 3 and 4 I feel better than 50/50 about Texas's chances. I feel the least good about #4 

Situations 5, 6, and 7 are extreme longshots to occur but for the sake of completeness I included them.

Edited by The_Great_Hornsby
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The_Great_Hornsby

The_Great_Hornsby 3586

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Just now, Wilcox Cummingtonite said:

Basically said Texas’ win against Bama didn’t matter now because it was in September and that we want no part of them now. Made a huge ass out of himself to the point where Leinart was telling him to chill out.

What an assclown. Cant blame him for repping for his university but what a dumbass take. 

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Left Coast

Left Coast 879

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19 minutes ago, hornbri said:

To be fair, if they beat Washington then they will have two wins against comparable teams. (i think we still have the argument based on overall SOS). 

It’s this. The thing that will matter will be who you play against/beat next week. If Oregon beats unbeaten Top 4 Washington (and avenges their only loss of the season) I don’t see how the committee leaves them out, given their bias towards recency.

I think it ends up being OSU/Mich, Georgia, Texas, Oregon at the end of the day.

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C-Man

C-Man 27685

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If a one loss Bama gets in over a one loss Texas there's a long term risk no blue bloods will schedule quality OOC opponents turning September into a snoozefest of games.

It won’t really matter that much with a 12-team playoff. It will only effect seedlings at that point.
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NameAlreadyInUse

NameAlreadyInUse 5164

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"Texas beat Alabama by 10 in their stadium".
"Yeah but that was in September."
I keep hearing a variation of that. How fucking nice for us, when that game/trip is all risk and no reward. So dumb.

Those same people are also saying you can’t leave a 1 loss Georgia team out because of shit that happened last god damned season. Ok. So in Texas’ case, September doesn’t matter, but in Georgia’s case September of last season still matters? Why? Fuck off with that nonsense.
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