THE College Football Playoff Rankings Thread [MICH,WASH,TEX,ALA]

[FloridaHorn 4735]

3 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

Even though the Washington, FSU, and Bama games didn’t go well for Texas’ playoff chances, yesterday was a spectacular day of college football. Entertaining as hell. And so great when Texas is in the conversation. Every game has meaning. 

I agree, first time in several years that the games at the end of the season actually mean something to Longhorn fans.

[victory88 5659]

The only reason Texas was ranked where they were was because of eye test.  Well Bama needed a miracle to beat a 5-6 team.  FSU barely scraped by a 5-6 team.  Washington needed a game winning FG to bear a 4-7 team.  We just beat a team by 50 that the team in front of us almost to.  Texas needs to do the same thing next week and the committee will have a hard time argument to make when we have the better SoS, the best win of any team, best resume and winning the eye test.  What then?

[troph 24563]

7 hours ago, longhornmatt said:

Louisville has a real chance to beat Florida State.  They might even be favored in that game.

And that’s pretty much it.  Iowa is going to get blasted by Michigan.  If Oregon beats Washington, they won’t drop them behind us.  If Alabama beats Georgia, they will absolutely pick Bama instead of us.

I do agree we have a stronger resume than Oregon and it’s bullshit that a 1 loss Pac12 team would get preference over us.  That conference has zero quality wins OOC, and they made their reputation from beating each other.   But, at the same time, I have to acknowledge we had a pretty flawed season.  There were a lot of close wins over trash Big 12 teams until this week when we finally dominated someone again.

I think we should be the highest ranked 1 loss team (and that we’re better than FSU and Washington even if they are undefeated), but I can’t get too upset.  This wouldn’t be like 2008 when coaches downvoted us on purpose to help their butt buddies, and the media for some reason decided OU beating the same teams 63-35 was actually better than us beating them 49-10, and used that to justify ignoring our head to head win.  That was bullshit.

We would have fucked the crying tebows up that year. As it was we beat tOSU in the fiesta while OU did their famous vanishing Bobs act.

[troph 24563]

11 minutes ago, victory88 said:

The only reason Texas was ranked where they were was because of eye test.  Well Bama needed a miracle to beat a 5-6 team.  FSU barely scraped by a 5-6 team.  Washington needed a game winning FG to bear a 4-7 team.  We just beat a team by 50 that the team in front of us almost to.  Texas needs to do the same thing next week and the committee will have a hard time argument to make when we have the better SoS, the best win of any team, best resume and winning the eye test.  What then?

[Make em eat Taco Bell 1549]

the Gator collapse last night was critical to our chances. It's up to the frikkin Louisville Cardinals to save Texas.   Sad to think that the last 75 seconds of PREVENT DEFENSE vs. OU may have cost a national championship.  But then again, the struggle vs Cougar High and the super lucky win vs. KSU, being down at home to Wyoming and Rice -- these are not good marks on the report card, despite winning them all. 

[victory88 5659]

4 minutes ago, Make em eat Taco Bell said:

the Gator collapse last night was critical to our chances. It's up to the frikkin Louisville Cardinals to save Texas.   Sad to think that the last 75 seconds of PREVENT DEFENSE vs. OU may have cost a national championship.  But then again, the struggle vs Cougar High and the super lucky win vs. KSU, being down at home to Wyoming and Rice -- these are not good marks on the report card, despite winning them all. 

We were playing our backup QB with half the roster injured and still beat a ranked KSU team.  

[troph 24563]

8 minutes ago, victory88 said:

We were playing our backup QB with half the roster injured and still beat a ranked KSU team.  

The fact that we won 2 with a back up QB needs to be screamed from top of the rock or the Chrysler building or something. Fucking A. I’m starting to get pissed. If we play our game we can go toe to toe with every team ahead of us. Fuck.

Edited November 26, 2023 by troph

[troph 24563]

Can you imagine Texas with a month to heal? Only JB would be unavailable. And sark with a month to scheme? Fuck. 

Edited November 26, 2023 by troph

[Message Board User 12389]

 

[utexas8 1433]

Of course no one loses this year. Of course. Has never happened but now it does.

Or we get screwed. I don’t see us making it but whatever. Makes me mad but they should’ve never lost to OU. Regardless I’m happy to be 11-1 we could be talking about being 5-7, 8-4, or bullying our admin out of a hire instead we are taking about being screwed out of a playoff spot.

[ChickenNuggets 1611]

50 minutes ago, Make em eat Taco Bell said:

the Gator collapse last night was critical to our chances. It's up to the frikkin Louisville Cardinals to save Texas.   Sad to think that the last 75 seconds of PREVENT DEFENSE vs. OU may have cost a national championship.  But then again, the struggle vs Cougar High and the super lucky win vs. KSU, being down at home to Wyoming and Rice -- these are not good marks on the report card, despite winning them all. 

It was the first quarter of mediocre to bad QB play that cost us the game with OU... but regardless... I think we bump Oregon due to comparison with Tech (judges are supposed to consider that).. further, we jump FSU when they lose to louisville next week and if we destroy OSU, boom, we're in. Only one Big10 and SEC team is getting in this year. 

Edited November 26, 2023 by ChickenNuggets

[Texas Wahoo 3383]

55 minutes ago, Make em eat Taco Bell said:

the Gator collapse last night was critical to our chances. It's up to the frikkin Louisville Cardinals to save Texas.   Sad to think that the last 75 seconds of PREVENT DEFENSE vs. OU may have cost a national championship.  But then again, the struggle vs Cougar High and the super lucky win vs. KSU, being down at home to Wyoming and Rice -- these are not good marks on the report card, despite winning them all. 

Not to mention a bad third quarter against Alabama. Imagine if we had beaten them by 20+. It might have been enough for everyone to agree we should be ahead of them at the end of the year. 

[idigTexas 2266]

I have not seen any real campaigning by Sark yet, which is how it should be.  I hope he continues to focus on the task at hand (beating OkSt), and then presents a well-reasoned argument.   

[Make em eat Taco Bell 1549]

26 minutes ago, ChickenNuggets said:

It was the first quarter of mediocre to bad QB play that cost us the game with OU... but regardless... I think we bump Oregon due to comparison with Tech (judges are supposed to consider that).. further, we jump FSU when they lose to louisville next week and if we destroy OSU, boom, we're in. Only one Big10 and SEC team is getting in this year. 

our universe rests on this presumption. We're not jumping a 13-0 FSU.  Does Louisville still have Lamar Jackson?

[troph 24563]

10 minutes ago, idigTexas said:

I have not seen any real campaigning by Sark yet, which is how it should be.  I hope he continues to focus on the task at hand (beating OkSt), and then presents a well-reasoned argument.   

He needs surrogates out there now, after okie state he’s got less than 24-30 hours 

51 minutes ago, Message Board User said:

 

Don’t take this the wrong way but I wish the committee had balls like this.

Edited November 26, 2023 by troph

[BigBenBamboozle 1950]

1 minute ago, Make em eat Taco Bell said:

our universe rests on this presumption. We're not jumping a 13-0 FSU.  Does Louisville still have Lamar Jackson?

No, but Florida St looked pretty awful at times against a truly horribad Florida team, so who knows.

[Bevo14 8274]

1 hour ago, Message Board User said:

 

I don't get the Oregon love. They lost to the only really good team on their schedule and blew out bad teams. Their best wins are against 2 8-4 teams. The pac championship will take care of them or Washington though. 

It's interesting that the media ranks undefeated FSU so low. Maybe there's an outside chance of jumping them even if they beat Louisville.  Hopefully we have a good showing next week. 

The dream scenario is Alabama beating Georgia and getting left out. I would laugh my ass off. I would also like our chances against Michigan, FSU, and Washington.

Edited November 26, 2023 by Bevo14

[ChickenNuggets 1611]

5 minutes ago, Make em eat Taco Bell said:

our universe rests on this presumption. We're not jumping a 13-0 FSU.  Does Louisville still have Lamar Jackson?

I'm trying to remain optimistic, but you're right. FSU has to lose.

[UTEE97 3429]

No matter how much lobbying is done in favor of Texas over FSU, I think that's a losing battle unless FSU loses their championship game. There is absolutely no reason to rank Oregon ahead of us however, and our lobbying should focus on that aspect of the rankings.

[USNALonghorn 5024]

People saying we didn’t get help from anyone this weekend are mostly right, but we did get help from the one place it mattered: our team. We fucking smashed Tech by 50 points, securing our berth in the Big12 CG while racking up style points.

Also, imagine how much more hopeless we’d feel if FSU didn’t lose Jordan Travis for the season? (against directional Alabama, while we’re at it)

We still have Louisville to root for and plenty of chaotic things have happened in conference championship games in years past. We’re in the hunt until we’re not.

And if it doesn’t play out our way, then we can go back to bitching about not punching it in from the goal line or letting DG stroll down the field in under 75 seconds.

[victory88 5659]

There is absolutely no justification for a 1 loss Oregon team to be ahead of a 1 loss Texas team.  Their only justification is eye test.  Nothing about their wins, quality of schedule, or even eye test are better than Texas.  This committee is going off their wins against a 4-7 Colorado team and a very overrated Utah team they played without Cam Rising.  Utah’s signature win this year is a bowl ineligible Florida team.

The only scenario where we are fucked is if all the undefeated teams stay undefeated.  We really need Bama to win out and beat UGA.  I cannot imagine the committee leaving us out and letting a 1 loss Bama team we beat by double digits in.  And make no mistake about it.  We would smoke Bama again.  We are a terrible match up for them.

[gmr548 16517]

Louisville has a real chance to beat Florida State.  They might even be favored in that game.
And that’s pretty much it.  Iowa is going to get blasted by Michigan.  If Oregon beats Washington, they won’t drop them behind us.  If Alabama beats Georgia, they will absolutely pick Bama instead of us.
I do agree we have a stronger resume than Oregon and it’s bullshit that a 1 loss Pac12 team would get preference over us.  That conference has zero quality wins OOC, and they made their reputation from beating each other.   But, at the same time, I have to acknowledge we had a pretty flawed season.  There were a lot of close wins over trash Big 12 teams until this week when we finally dominated someone again.
I think we should be the highest ranked 1 loss team (and that we’re better than FSU and Washington even if they are undefeated), but I can’t get too upset.  This wouldn’t be like 2008 when coaches downvoted us on purpose to help their butt buddies, and the media for some reason decided OU beating the same teams 63-35 was actually better than us beating them 49-10, and used that to justify ignoring our head to head win.  That was bullshit.

I think Texas fans are fretting too much over the Bama thing. Yes - Bama would have the better body of work, but not by so much that it outweighs a two score Texas win in Tuscaloosa. Regardless, I do not think we are going to find out. Georgia has shown they have an extra gear and I don’t think Bama can hang with that for four quarters.

[gmr548 16517]

Even though the Washington, FSU, and Bama games didn’t go well for Texas’ playoff chances, yesterday was a spectacular day of college football. Entertaining as hell. And so great when Texas is in the conversation. Every game has meaning. 

The finishes in the afternoon window were something. I don’t know that I have ever seen such high drama with such high stakes across three games playing out nearly simultaneously like that before.

[Jewish Wang 111]

6 minutes ago, victory88 said:

We really need Bama to win out and beat UGA.  I cannot imagine the committee leaving us out and letting a 1 loss Bama team we beat by double digits in.

Everything about this is wrong. 

[Homercles 10205]

1 hour ago, utexas8 said:

Of course no one loses this year. Of course. Has never happened but now it does.

Or we get screwed. I don’t see us making it but whatever. Makes me mad but they should’ve never lost to OU. Regardless I’m happy to be 11-1 we could be talking about being 5-7, 8-4, or bullying our admin out of a hire instead we are taking about being screwed out of a playoff spot.

We (osu) have missed out twice on playing for a natty…and both were solely on the team.  2011 loss to ISU, and 2021 loss to rapists in conf champ game due to being unable to convert 4th and inches.  

Granted the LSU/Bama rematch was the stupidest thing ever protecting the SEC brand and our best RB likely converts one of those four goal-to-go runs but sat out due to the draft.  It is what it is.  Once you lose a game it’s out of your hands (or not if you’re UCF).  

That being said, any talk of Oregon having a better resume than Texas is fucking stupid and reflective of the entire dumbass nature of a 4-team playoff with 5 big boy conferences.  

MU/tOSU should have been considered an elimination game but I smell fuckery there…along with all this Oregon talk.  The narrative is always changing and it’s just to cover the undeniable fact that it’s all a ratings play.  Pisses me off as y’all have an outstanding resume with a win over us next Saturday.  

[ChickenNuggets 1611]

3 minutes ago, Homercles said:

We (osu) have missed out twice on playing for a natty…and both were solely on the team.  2011 loss to ISU, and 2021 loss to rapists in conf champ game due to being unable to convert 4th and inches.  

Granted the LSU/Bama rematch was the stupidest thing ever protecting the SEC brand and our best RB likely converts one of those four goal-to-go runs but sat out due to the draft.  It is what it is.  Once you lose a game it’s out of your hands (or not if you’re UCF).  

That being said, any talk of Oregon having a better resume than Texas is fucking stupid and reflective of the entire dumbass nature of a 4-team playoff with 5 big boy conferences.  

MU/tOSU should have been considered an elimination game but I smell fuckery there…along with all this Oregon talk.  The narrative is always changing and it’s just to cover the undeniable fact that it’s all a ratings play.  Pisses me off as y’all have an outstanding resume with a win over us next Saturday.  

 

^^ don't you cast that spell on us, witch...

[MrX 714]

I mean I hope it’s a ratings grab. That would favor Texas getting in. 

[UTEE97 3429]

21 minutes ago, victory88 said:

There is absolutely no justification for a 1 loss Oregon team to be ahead of a 1 loss Texas team.  Their only justification is eye test.  Nothing about their wins, quality of schedule, or even eye test are better than Texas.  This committee is going off their wins against a 4-7 Colorado team and a very overrated Utah team they played without Cam Rising.  Utah’s signature win this year is a bowl ineligible Florida team.

The only scenario where we are fucked is if all the undefeated teams stay undefeated.  We really need Bama to win out and beat UGA.  I cannot imagine the committee leaving us out and letting a 1 loss Bama team we beat by double digits in.  And make no mistake about it.  We would smoke Bama again.  We are a terrible match up for them.

Agree with the first paragraph but we don't want Bama to beat UGA and cause further chaos and uncertainty. We know that SEC will definitely send one team to the CFP. If it's UGA, then Bama gets left out because they would have two losses. If we have two one-loss teams, then there will be talking heads lobbying for two SEC teams to get in, however ridiculous that may sound.

Edited November 26, 2023 by UTEE97

[blutow 222]

5 minutes ago, Jewish Wang said:

Everything about this is wrong. 

Bama beating Georgia can only help us.  It's the committee's worst nightmare.  They will want to put Bama in so bad, but it's really hard to discount that head to head loss to Texas.  I'm not ruling out the committee putting Bama in and leaving Texas out in that situation, but it's still better than Georgia winning.  If there is a situation where they leave an undefeated FSU out (or push champ Oregon out), a Bama win over Georgia increases the odds of either of those things happening.  

 

[Jewish Wang 111]

Just now, blutow said:

Bama beating Georgia can only help us.  It's the committee's worst nightmare.  They will want to put Bama in so bad, but it's really hard to discount that head to head loss to Texas.  I'm not ruling out the committee putting Bama in and leaving Texas out in that situation, but it's still better than Georgia winning.  If there is a situation where they leave an undefeated FSU out (or push champ Oregon out), a Bama win over Georgia increases the odds of either of those things happening.  

 

Nonsense. 

[Sleep off ugly 279]

Fuck it. We’re 11-1, about to kick the shit out of OSU and win the Big 12. The Committee can go fuck themselves. 

We’re Texas.

 

[blutow 222]

2 minutes ago, UTEE97 said:

If it's a one loss UGA, then Bama gets left out because they would have two losses.

???  If we have a one loss UGA, Bama only has one loss.  It's the only game left.  

[ChickenNuggets 1611]

3 minutes ago, UTEE97 said:

Agree with the first paragraph but we don't want Bama to beat UGA and cause further chaos and uncertainty. We know that SEC will definitely send one team to the CFP. If it's a one loss UGA, then Bama gets left out because they would have two losses. If we have two one-loss teams, then there will be talking heads lobbying for two SEC teams to get in, however ridiculous that may sound.

This is absolutely correct^^  An undefeated Georgia is likely the only scenario where only one SEC school gets into the playoff. If Bama wins, both teams will go... Georgia is clearly a number 1 team and the story of how Nick Saban "still has it" will be too good to pass up... 

[UTEE97 3429]

1 minute ago, blutow said:

???  If we have a one loss UGA, Bama only has one loss.  It's the only game left.  

Sorry my bad. I meant to say, if UGA is the winner, then bama is out.

[hornbri 1375]

Here we go again - we should put tags under people’s names. 

The 11-1 Bama will pass Texas camps and

The 11-1 Bama will not pass Texas camp

Just now, ChickenNuggets said:

This is absolutely correct^^  An undefeated Georgia is likely the only scenario where only one SEC school gets into the playoff. If Bama wins, both teams will go... Georgia is clearly a number 1 team and the story of how Nick Saban "still has it" will be too good to pass up... 

There is a close to zero chance 2 teams from any conference are going no matter who they are. 

[UTEE97 3429]

12 minutes ago, hornbri said:

Here we go again - we should put tags under people’s names. 

The 11-1 Bama will pass Texas camps and

The 11-1 Bama will not pass Texas camp

11-1 bama may or may not pass us, but I don't want to find out. A 2-loss bama surely won't and would ensure only one SEC team (UGA) gets in. There has never been a case where the SEC didn't get a team in and this won't be the first because we won the H2H.

Not saying two one-loss teams from the SEC will surely get in, but we are talking about a two-time defending champ who had the best regular season record in the SEC and only lost in the conference championship game to Bama. There will be a lot of push to get both Bama and UGA in.

Edited November 26, 2023 by UTEE97

[victory88 5659]

The committee has a guidelines they apparently follow.

Conference champions

head to head 

 common opponents

eye tesr

- There is absolutely no way a 1 loss Bama team is going to jump Texas if they beat UGA.  The committee would then be telling all of college football that head to head doesn’t count.  None of the other teams have beaten a CFP team and they would be leaving out Texas that has already proven to have beaten one in this scenario.  Bama needing a fucking miracle to beat a TERRIBLE auburn team is also going to shut down the Bama is better now talk.  Bama and Oregon winning out creates chaos with nearly multiple 1 loss teams.  UGA, Bama, Oregon, Washington, tOSU would all have 1 losses in that scenario.  This favors Texas in ng opinion.  We just need to throttle okie lite.

[blutow 222]

6 minutes ago, Jewish Wang said:

Nonsense

It's only nonsense if you believe 2 SEC teams get in.  I know you think that (and anything is possible with a human committee), but that scenario is way, way crazier than the other scenarios. The only time it's happened in the past is when the non-champ goes in over a 2 loss champ.  It's looking like it will be 5 very deserving champs.  It's not the best team on paper, the results of the games have to matter to some degree.      

[Tex Long 4348]

 Put it all to bed.

This is the year for Ultimate Chaos.

Iowa 3, Meatchicken 2.

We're in.

Book it.

[LebongJames 1787]

I see no way Bama winning helps us at this point. It’s pretty straight forward in my opinion.

Need Oregon to beat Washington 

Need FSU to lose

We should get in if either of these happen. Also Michigan losing to Iowa somehow would be great.

 

[utee94 15746]

 

17 minutes ago, MrX said:

I mean I hope it’s a ratings grab. That would favor Texas getting in. 

It is, and it does.

Way too many chicken littles running around. 

 

[blutow 222]

8 minutes ago, hornbri said:

Here we go again - we should put tags under people’s names. 

The 11-1 Bama will pass Texas camps and

The 11-1 Bama will not pass Texas camp

I'm sitting on the fence between both camps.  I think there is a decent chance the committee doesn't have the balls to exclude the SEC and will have to let Bama in if they win the conference.  If that happens, I hope the discussion would be "well, we can't exclude Texas if we include Bama, let's take another look at FSU and Oregon.....".  I think Bama winning is a long shot, but that scenario absolutely gives us a better shot than if Georgia wins (where there is a 100% guarantee they get a spot while also making our win over Bama less valuable).       

[Magus Ossis 2784]

It really boils down to Louisville. There are 5 power conferences and 4 seats at the table. Leaving one out is mandatory, but leaving two out would depend on a significant gap between the #2 from the "better" conference and the winner of the "worse." If Louisville wins, ACC is the odd man out. If we shit the bed against OSU (lose or win ugly), the committee has its excuse to take a second team from somewhere else, whether that be UGA after losing to Bama, UW after a close loss to UO, or tOSU. But an FSU loss and Texas taking care of business is a clear path.

[mwaadeeb 1152]

23 minutes ago, Jewish Wang said:

Nonsense. 

There you go again, saying nonsense and wrong and all your bullshit. 

[victory88 5659]

8 minutes ago, blutow said:

I'm sitting on the fence between both camps.  I think there is a decent chance the committee doesn't have the balls to exclude the SEC and will have to let Bama in if they win the conference.  If that happens, I hope the discussion would be "well, we can't exclude Texas if we include Bama, let's take another look at FSU and Oregon.....".  I think Bama winning is a long shot, but that scenario absolutely gives us a better shot than if Georgia wins (where there is a 100% guarantee they get a spot while also making our win over Bama less valuable).       

edit:  misread your post.  Looks like we agree mainly.
 

Most years yes.  However, can you name one out of conference marquee win for the SEC?  Missouri beating K-state on a 60 yard game winning FG is their best win as a conference.  A team we beat with our back up QB.  LSU and Florida lost to FSU.  Florida lost to Utah.  Bama lost to Texas.  Aggy lost to Miami.  Auburn lost to New Mexico State.  UGA and Bama are CFP worthy and the rest of the league is spares.  If the committee decides to put a 1 loss Bama team, they will have to state why they jumped Texas.  A team they lost to at home by 10 in a game where they were dominated on the line of scrimmage.  If they let Bama in, they will have to also put Texas in.  There is a reason Bama is behind us in the rankings despite them “looking” better through mid season until this last week. 

Edited November 26, 2023 by victory88

[Texasrocks 2124]

5 minutes ago, Magus Ossis said:

It really boils down to Louisville. There are 5 power conferences and 4 seats at the table. Leaving one out is mandatory, but leaving two out would depend on a significant gap between the #2 from the "better" conference and the winner of the "worse." If Louisville wins, ACC is the odd man out. If we shit the bed against OSU (lose or win ugly), the committee has its excuse to take a second team from somewhere else, whether that be UGA after losing to Bama, UW after a close loss to UO, or tOSU. But an FSU loss and Texas taking care of business is a clear path.

This is where I'm at. It all comes down to us and FSU. If FSU wins, we're out. If they lose and we win, we're in.

[TexEx15 17487]

22 minutes ago, victory88 said:

The committee has a guidelines they apparently follow.

Conference champions

head to head 

 common opponents

eye tesr

- There is absolutely no way a 1 loss Bama team is going to jump Texas if they beat UGA.  The committee would then be telling all of college football that head to head doesn’t count.  None of the other teams have beaten a CFP team and they would be leaving out Texas that has already proven to have beaten one in this scenario.  Bama needing a fucking miracle to beat a TERRIBLE auburn team is also going to shut down the Bama is better now talk.  Bama and Oregon winning out creates chaos with nearly multiple 1 loss teams.  UGA, Bama, Oregon, Washington, tOSU would all have 1 losses in that scenario.  This favors Texas in ng opinion.  We just need to throttle okie lite.

Then there is also no way a 12-1 Oregon should get in over 12-1 Texas.

[blutow 222]

4 minutes ago, victory88 said:

 If they let Bama in, they will have to also put Texas in.

+100, that is my hope and why I think it can only be good if Bama beats Georgia.  Yeah, I agree that SEC should be on the bubble if Georgia doesn't win, I'm just not sure the football gods would allow that.  The talk of 2 teams from SEC or B1G is silly in my opinion.  I get the argument that OSU or Georgia might still be one of the best 4 teams in the country, but that's not how it works.  Results/championships matter.  If the committee was just picking the best 4 teams, FSU wouldn't even be in the discussion right now.  

[gmr548 16517]

9 hours ago, longhornmatt said:

Louisville has a real chance to beat Florida State.  They might even be favored in that game.

And that’s pretty much it.  Iowa is going to get blasted by Michigan.  If Oregon beats Washington, they won’t drop them behind us.  If Alabama beats Georgia, they will absolutely pick Bama instead of us.

I do agree we have a stronger resume than Oregon and it’s bullshit that a 1 loss Pac12 team would get preference over us.  That conference has zero quality wins OOC, and they made their reputation from beating each other.   But, at the same time, I have to acknowledge we had a pretty flawed season.  There were a lot of close wins over trash Big 12 teams until this week when we finally dominated someone again.

I think we should be the highest ranked 1 loss team (and that we’re better than FSU and Washington even if they are undefeated), but I can’t get too upset.  This wouldn’t be like 2008 when coaches downvoted us on purpose to help their butt buddies, and the media for some reason decided OU beating the same teams 63-35 was actually better than us beating them 49-10, and used that to justify ignoring our head to head win.  That was bullshit.

Assuming wins for both next week:

Oregon: 12-1. Three-point loss on the road as a three-point dog against a 12-1, top five rival who is otherwise undefeated, in a game that they coulda/shoulda/woulda won if not for some questionable coaching decisions; avenged that loss in a CCG and has beaten everyone they have played. Dominating wins over one, maybe two additional ranked teams, one of which was on the road. Has only been remotely challenged maybe two other times, once on the road at the beginning of the year and once against the reigning Heisman winner (and calling this being challenged is generous). Championship of maybe the deepest top to bottom league in the country this year. Consistently ranked in the top 5 by predictive analytics.

Texas: 12-1. Four-point neutral site loss as a TD favorite against a ranked 10-2 rival with in an inflated record, in a game that they coulda/shoulda/woulda have won if they had not fucked up any of a half-dozen aspects of the game. 10-point road win over a 11-2/12-1, top ten team. Neutral site CCG win against a team in the 20's that was blown out by a Sun Belt team. Maybe one other ranked win, at home in OT, which they were both frankly lucky to get but also impressive in doing so with a backup QB. Several fourth quarter games with average to bad teams. Championship of probably the fourth best league in CFB. Consistently ranked in the the top 10 by predictive analytics.

To your point on OOC wins/conference profile:

The PAC 12 was 29-7 OOC. Two non-P5 losses, ASU (2-7 in league) got blanked by Fresno State and Stanford (2-7) lost to a FCS. 7-5 against P5 and 3-1 against Big 12. I agree there is no hugely impressive win there. Some decent ones but nothing to compare to Texas's win over Alabama.

The Big 12 was 30-12, 6-6 against P5. Six non-P5 losses including the #2 seed losing 33-7 at home to a Sun Belt also ran. ISU finished fourth and also only scored 7 in a loss to Ohio (not State). Texas has the Bama win, which is absolutely to their credit individually, but there are no wins of significance for the rest of the conference and a slew of bad losses. And as mentioned above, 1-3 against the PAC 12. 

There's not a huge difference in profile there but to argue it's bullshit that a PAC team would be ranked ahead based on conference performance is not grounded in reality. The B12 has Texas's Bama win offset by several instances of shitting of the bed, including by teams that were in contention for the CCG or are playing in it.

I don't understand how people conclude that Texas is definitively the better team and it would be bullshit to be ranked even one spot below Oregon unless it is just a burnt orange sunglasses thing. To be clear, I am not saying Oregon is definitively better than Texas. I might favor them slightly at a neutral site but frankly I think their profiles are very similar from a playoff perspective; but the bolded seems to be a pervasive line of thinking across the Texas fan base and seems very weird to me.

 

 

[Js1 85110]

24 minutes ago, blutow said:

It's only nonsense if you believe 2 SEC teams get in.  I know you think that (and anything is possible with a human committee), but that scenario is way, way crazier than the other scenarios. The only time it's happened in the past is when the non-champ goes in over a 2 loss champ.  It's looking like it will be 5 very deserving champs.  It's not the best team on paper, the results of the games have to matter to some degree.      

Not a single part of me believes a non-champ Georgia goes over us in any scenario where we finish 12-1. We might get squeezed by a 13-0 UW, 13-0 UM, 13-0 FSU and 12-1 Bama, but we would not be left out in favor of 12-1 non-champ Georgia. We’d be 5th in that scenario.

And there would be a lot of heartburn about 12-1 Bama over 12-1 Texas and I think the committee can just say H2H and leave them out in that scenario. 

Like many, I am most scared about what happens if it’s 13-0 UM, 13-0 Georgia, 13-0 FSU, 12-1 Oregon and 12-1 Texas. 

For the love of Texas, I will be a huge UGA and UW and Louisville fan. Do not want to be up against a 12-1 Oregon and a 12-1 Bama