THE College Football Playoff Rankings Thread [MICH,WASH,TEX,ALA]

[The_Great_Hornsby 3329]

2 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

I have no idea why people think Texas would beat out Oregon for the last spot. The committee has already put them ahead of us and their last game win would be against a top four opponent. Oregon is in if they win, and we are out. Unless, somehow Bama beating Georgia causes  enough committee members to vote Texas to avoid the head to head issue. But I doubt it. 

And as to one loss Georgia getting in, there are only one or two people that keep saying that and they need to stfu. That is not happening over a one loss conference champ Texas. No way. Impossible. 

I agree with this. We MIGHT get in over Bama, but thats a total toss up. I do not really see them putting us over Oregon if Oregon and Texas are the only 1 loss teams. It is not right but it is what it is. The committee loves them some PAC football this year. 

[Wulaw Horn 18981]

7 minutes ago, blutow said:

The problem is that they need a narrative to support a change (they aren't going to say they just screwed it up and are now fixing it).  While common opponents matter (tech), their guidelines specifically say that margin of victory is not rewarded for common opponents.  While I don't think our performance at tech will be ignored, it's still tough to have us jump Oregon this week when they convincingly beat a ranked OSU in a rivalry game.  And that just leaves the CCG's where they will be playing a top 4 washington while we are playing ~20th OSU.  The week of the initial rankings was right after Oregon beat Utah and OU lost to Kansas (after almost losing to UCF the week prior), making our loss look pretty bad.  If OU had kept rolling, we never would have been ranked below Oregon, ironic that OU shitting the bed has a decent likelihood of keeping us out of the playoffs this year.  

They don't say margin of victory isn't considered.  They say without incenting margin of victory. I read that to mean the same as the old BCS computers when they put the cap on computers considering anything beyond 21 points in MOV.  Essentially that's not saying that a 1 possession win and a 7 possession win are the same- it's saying we aren't going to dabble in figuring out if a 35 point win is a bigger deal than a 45 point win.  

[bangkok 89]

10 minutes ago, Jewish Wang said:

You’re speaking to me as if I am the Committee. Why?  When the Committee tells you who they are, believe them. As opposed to having fantasy dance through your empty head. 

no, i’m speaking to you because your opinion has no relevance, and is in fact quite contrary to what we’ve seen the committee do previously.

and even replying to you makes me feel like i’m wasting my time with an idiot.

in regards to the committee - there’s been absolutely zero examples of a 1-loss champion with a h2h win over another 1-loss champion, where the h2h winner is left out.

along with another 1-loss champion with a common opponent, where the team that dominated the common opponent was left out.

the fantasy is purely yours, and it’s frankly ridiculous.

[victory88 5659]

6 minutes ago, blutow said:

The problem is that they need a narrative to support a change (they aren't going to say they just screwed it up and are now fixing it).  While common opponents matter (tech), their guidelines specifically say that margin of victory is not rewarded for common opponents.  While I don't think our performance at tech will be ignored, it's still tough to have us jump Oregon this week when they convincingly beat a ranked OSU in a rivalry game.  And that just leaves the CCG's where they will be playing a top 4 washington while we are playing ~20th OSU.  The week of the initial rankings was right after Oregon beat Utah and OU lost to Kansas (after almost losing to UCF the week prior), making our loss look pretty bad.  If OU had kept rolling, we never would have been ranked below Oregon, ironic that OU shitting the bed has a decent likelihood of keeping us out of the playoffs this year.  

Oregon’s best win is an 8-4 Oregon state team.  If we blow out ranked 9-3 okie lite, it will be just as good if not a better win.  Our win at Bama trumps their potential best win against Washington who is scraping by teams.  Beating an average Oregon State team isn’t the reason they will get in ahead of us.  During our game, ABC already started the argument for us by putting up the graphics of our resume vs Oregon.  That wasn’t by mistake.  They want Texas in and there will be a lot of pressure from Disney/ABC to have us in because of all the eye balls we bring and money we bring.  Don’t kid yourself.  

[UTGrad98 2259]

I want to thank the posters above me. The rational thinking has got my BP back down. 

Fsu loses and we are in 100%. The rest of the games will not matter.

The other scenario which is as many 1 loss teams as possible is basically a coin flip on if we get in. That's the best we can hope for. 

[UTEE97 3429]

6 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

They don't say margin of victory isn't considered.  They say without incenting margin of victory. I read that to mean the same as the old BCS computers when they put the cap on computers considering anything beyond 21 points in MOV.  Essentially that's not saying that a 1 possession win and a 7 possession win are the same- it's saying we aren't going to dabble in figuring out if a 35 point win is a bigger deal than a 45 point win.  

This! If I am a betting man, I would bet Texas and Oregon swap positions this week. If they don't do it now, then we will not pass the Pac 12 champion in the final ranking. 

 

Edited November 26, 2023 by UTEE97

[ztejas 43266]

There's only one thing we can control. We need to beat the ever-living fucking daylights out of osu. Run the score up if we have to. Start with that and let the chips fall. 

[Dbeasy 14969]

4 minutes ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

I agree with this. We MIGHT get in over Bama, but thats a total toss up. I do not really see them putting us over Oregon if Oregon and Texas are the only 1 loss teams. It is not right but it is what it is. The committee loves them some PAC football this year. 

That’s not what I meant. What I meant was that Bama beating Georgia might cause the committee to put both Bama and Texas in, instead of Bama and Oregon. They will struggle to put Bama in without Texas because of the head to head.

Many think Texas gets in over Bama, but I think they will pick Bama over Texas because of SeC bias, a committee with more SEC shills, and the argument that Bama lost early with an inexperienced QB. 

That would be cool to have both Bama and Texas in, and Oregon out. Unlikely, but a tiny possibility. 

[dcar00 14035]

57 minutes ago, TexEx15 said:

Then there is also no way a 12-1 Oregon should get in over 12-1 Texas.

exactly but what they don't have on their website is an asterisk that denotes

*we have to put these up here so people think we are being analytical when really we are a bunch of old "poll era" guys who can decide what they want

 

[blutow 222]

1 minute ago, Codaxx said:

There is also SOS, which highly favors both Texas and Bama over Oregon. Not to mention you are saying margin of victory doesn’t matter, but it’s literally the basis for Oregon being ahead of Texas and Bama. They are getting a bump for blowing out shitty PAC teams 

Agree, but they have ignored it to this point and their strength of schedule is getting a bump (relative to Texas) both this week and next.  On the margin of victory, I'm just highlighting that they specifically call out that it can't be used when looking at common opponents (so while I'm sure they are looking it at, they can't use that to explain externally why we might jump oregon).  I'm saying they probably did the initial rankings without really giving it much thought and I'm concerned they aren't going to make a correction because they can't find a good reason to change it (short of admitting they screwed up).  

   

[Hagbard Celine 10763]

people are much closer to the vector here overnight

so i will not spoil the prediction i made in wulaw's gameweek thread

4th and 31 ("graveyard") TD is going to be the smokescreen for the shell game just behind it on tuesday night:

tuesday night:

1 dawg

2 meatchicken

3 washington

4 florida state

5 bama

6 texas

7 oregon

8 jort

9 louisville

[Hagbard Celine 10763]

6 minutes ago, UTGrad98 said:

I want to thank the posters above me. The rational thinking has got my BP back down. 

Fsu loses and we are in 100%. The rest of the games will not matter.

The other scenario which is as many 1 loss teams as possible is basically a coin flip on if we get in. That's the best we can hope for. 

it's not a guarantee - saban wins - both georgia and alabama are in

[ztejas 43266]

8 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

What I meant was that Bama beating Georgia might cause the committee to put both Bama and Texas in, instead of Bama and Oregon. They will struggle to put Bama in without Texas because of the head to head.

It might depend on how the games go - but I'm suspecting that this is exactly what will happen if Texas, Bama, UO and FSU win if UO wins close against UW and we whip osu. It lets them avoid dealing with both leaving the SEC out and putting Bama over Texas. 

For the record - I think UGA smokes Bama.

Edited November 26, 2023 by ztejas

[Codaxx 5602]

1 minute ago, blutow said:

Agree, but they have ignored it to this point and their strength of schedule is getting a bump (relative to Texas) both this week and next.  On the margin of victory, I'm just highlighting that they specifically call out that it can't be used when looking at common opponents (so while I'm sure they are looking it at, they can't use that to explain externally why we might jump oregon).  I'm saying they probably did the initial rankings without really giving it much thought and I'm concerned they aren't going to make a correction because they can't find a good reason to change it (short of admitting they screwed up).  

   

I'm concerned they aren't going to make a correction because they can't find a good reason to change it (short of admitting they screwed up).  
 

This is exactly the problem. People view rankings like they are static. There might have been a legit argument to say the Utah win was comparable to the Bama win 1 month ago. This pervasive idea that you can’t change rankings without admitting fault is absurd. It may play out this year, but I am pointing out this view is what is wrong with human rankings 

[victory88 5659]

3 minutes ago, Hagbard Celine said:

it's not a guarantee - saban wins - both georgia and alabama are in

This is not happening man if the other conference champs have 1 loss as well.  It doesn’t matter how many people say it.  

[blutow 222]

4 minutes ago, Hagbard Celine said:

people are much closer to the vector here overnight

so i will not spoil the prediction i made in wulaw's gameweek thread

4th and 31 ("graveyard") TD is going to be the smokescreen for the shell game just behind it on tuesday night:

tuesday night:

1 dawg

2 meatchicken

3 washington

4 florida state

5 bama

6 texas

7 oregon

8 jort

9 louisville

That would be great for Texas, but how does bama jump Oregon and Texas after barely surviving a terrible Auburn team while Texas and Oregon had strong games?  

[Neonmoon 38127]

Nothing matters unless FSU loses. 
 

[Hagbard Celine 10763]

Just now, blutow said:

That would be great for Texas, but how does bama jump Oregon and Texas after barely surviving a terrible Auburn team while Texas and Oregon had strong games?  

eye test

Just now, Neonmoon said:

Nothing matters unless FSU loses. 
 

yes but that's not the only thing that needs to happen

[dcar00 14035]

also, everyone saying a win over OSU is not going to count as much as OU in the champ game is correct to some extent but remember OSU beat OU head to head which is why they are going in. 

[bangkok 89]

texas should be #5 this week, and we’re in if any of the 4 above us lose next week.

oregon at 6, bama at 7.

most of you hoping for a bama win are also deluding yourselves. 

in a scenario where georgia, michigan, fsu, all win -  and oregon beats wash, it’s us or nike. 

i think we win every reasonable argument, in that scenario.

[dcar00 14035]

3 minutes ago, blutow said:

That would be great for Texas, but how does bama jump Oregon and Texas after barely surviving a terrible Auburn team while Texas and Oregon had strong games?  

other committee rule

SEC, rivalry, in Jordan Hare at night is worth double bonus points.

[Bateshorn 9905]

I have a kid at Oregon. I watch a lot of PAC-12 games.  I also grew up a Horn fan. 
 

If Oregon does what I think they are going to do on Friday, which is put the wood to a Washington team that had every break go their way in the first game, plus Dan Lanning unnecessarily going for it on 4th down and not doing th easy football thing (something Texas fans also have suffered under Sarkisian), and they win by 2+  TDs, y’all will need to absolute demolish Ok. St. to be in the conversation (barring a Michigan, FSU, or Georgia loss). A low scoring single digit win isn’t going to do the trick. It just isn’t. The committee is not going to jump you over an Oregon team that definitively beats an undefeated top 5 team in the CCG.

Rage about it all you want. I will completely give you that the beauty contest is unfair and bullshit. It’s an excellent argument for going to 8 teams. Lanning has been anticipating this and has been very slow to pull starters in blowouts.But be realistic. If it comes down to a beauty contest, your win against Ok. St has to look like Tech and not Iowa State. 

Now maybe Penix will go ham and Lanning will shit the bed, but we are different from A&M in being rational about who we are and what we are looking at 

Edited November 26, 2023 by Bateshorn

[dcar00 14035]

Just now, bangkok said:

texas should be #5 this week, and we’re in if any of the 4 above us lose next week.

oregon at 6, bama at 7.

most of you hoping for a bama win are also deluding yourselves. 

in a scenario where georgia, michigan, fsu, all win -  and oregon beats wash, it’s us or nike. 

i think we win every reasonable argument, in that scenario.

oregon will have the better win and the better loss.  we need FSU or Mich to lose.

[UTGrad98 2259]

1 minute ago, dcar00 said:

oregon will have the better win and the better loss.  we need FSU or Mich to lose.

Except those aren't committee criteria 

[The_Great_Hornsby 3329]

16 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

That’s not what I meant. What I meant was that Bama beating Georgia might cause the committee to put both Bama and Texas in, instead of Bama and Oregon. They will struggle to put Bama in without Texas because of the head to head.

Many think Texas gets in over Bama, but I think they will pick Bama over Texas because of SeC bias, a committee with more SEC shills, and the argument that Bama lost early with an inexperienced QB. 

That would be cool to have both Bama and Texas in, and Oregon out. Unlikely, but a tiny possibility. 

I agree with you here as well.

[dcar00 14035]

2 minutes ago, UTGrad98 said:

Except those aren't committee criteria 

it's kinda funny people think there is actually criteria they follow.

They already proved they don't follow SOS.  for one loss teams they look at who you beat and who you lost to because you don't get to chose your schedule except for 3 games(SEC has never been punished for their 4th OOC auto win weekend ever).  how people don't see this confuses me to no end.

Edited November 26, 2023 by dcar00

[oh_snap 694]

I feel like a lot of stupid people on here are forgetting the next committee ranking comes out this Tuesday… not after the CCGs.

[gmr548 16517]

4 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

we are different from A&M in being rational about who we are and what we are looking at 

Smart move not to read the thread. 

[idigTexas 2266]

4 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

Now maybe Penix will go ham and Lanning will shit the bed, but we are different from A&M in being rational about who we are and what we are looking at 

How does that help?  There is at least hope that we can end up ahead of a 12-1 Oregon.  There is no hope that we will end up ahead of a 13-0 Washington.  

[dcar00 14035]

2 minutes ago, oh_snap said:

I feel like a lot of stupid people on here are forgetting the next committee ranking comes out this Tuesday… not after the CCGs.

huh?  who?  we expect it to be chalk except for tOSU.

[RockyMountainHighHorn 890]

I think we need Louisville really bad. I don’t want to be in a 2 way with 1 going against Oregon. I don’t know why they are ahead of us when we have a better resume but unless we jump them this week then we better be huge Louisville fans. 
I do think it’s sad how many people are putting Ohio state in front of us still 

Edited November 26, 2023 by RockyMountainHighHorn

[Foosters 17734]

22 minutes ago, UTEE97 said:

This! If I am a betting man, I would bet Texas and Oregon swap positions this week. If they don't do it now, then we will not pass the Pac 12 champion in the final ranking. 

 

I could see us jumping them IF we beat OSU by 24+

The reason being, it seems (by process of elimination) the committee valued Oregon's "dominance" during the mid-late part of the season, while Texas limped to W after W. If Texas boat races OSU, that will be 3 straight weeks to close out the season in which Texas looks elite. Using their own criteria (cited numerous times above) there would not be a single objective metric in which Oregon bests Texas, and Texas has put to bed whatever issues they had when they were squeaking out victories.

That said, I don't see that as the likely outcome even if Texas blows out OSU.

[Dahobbs 17447]

10 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

I have a kid at Oregon. I watch a lot of PAC-12 games.  I also grew up a Horn fan. 
 

If Oregon does what I think they are going to do on Friday, which is put the wood to a Washington team that had every break go their way in the first game, plus Dan Lanning unnecessarily going for it on 4th down and not doing th easy football thing (something Texas fans also have suffered under Sarkisian), and they win by 2+  TDs, y’all will need to absolute demolish Ok. St. to be in the conversation (barring a Michigan, FSU, or Georgia loss). A low scoring single digit win isn’t going to do the trick. It just isn’t. The committee is not going to jump you over an Oregon team that definitively beats an undefeated top 5 team in the CCG.

Rage about it all you want. I will completely give you that the beauty contest is unfair and bullshit. It’s an excellent argument for going to 8 teams. But be realistic. If it comes down to a beauty contest, your win against Ok. St has to look like Tech and not Iowa State. 

Now maybe Penix will go ham and Lanning will shit the bed, but we are different from A&M in being rational about who we are and what we are looking at 

Negged for talking about Texas in the second person while claiming "horn" in your username. You're either a horn or your not. Sounds like you've chosen. 

[billfromlaketravis 11362]

Any chance Iowa knocks off Michigan? That defense is very, very good. 

[Dahobbs 17447]

Just now, billfromlaketravis said:

Any chance Iowa knocks off Michigan? That defense is very, very good. 

No.

[UTEE97 3429]

H2H matters only if other things are equal. If Bama wins the SEC they would have a better SOS and the committee won't hesitate to put them above us. We are putting too much weight o H2H imo.

[Bateshorn 9905]

1 minute ago, Dahobbs said:

Negged for talking about Texas in the second person while claiming "horn" in your username. You're either a horn or your not. Sounds like you've chosen. 

Throwing positive rep to you for being a dim, but loving fan of your team. 
 

Rage all you want, I didn’t design the system.  I’d have left it the way it was 25 years ago and just let the writers pick after all the dust of the New Years Bowl’s settled. 

[Dahobbs 17447]

1 minute ago, Bateshorn said:

Throwing positive rep to you for being a dim, but loving fan of your team. 
 

Rage all you want, I didn’t design the system.  I’d have left it the way it was 25 years ago and just let the writers pick after all the dust of the New Years Bowl’s settled. 

Your take is wrong, but that isn't why I negged you. 

[dcar00 14035]

1 minute ago, billfromlaketravis said:

Any chance Iowa knocks off Michigan? That defense is very, very good. 

there is probably a 1 in 10 chance just because college football but Mich has throttled all their middling big 10 opponents sans Maryland.  Iowa has squeaked by in almost all their games to similar opponents.  The defense won't be able to hold out very long if at all and their O is abysmal as usual.

I expect a 30 point drubbing.

[Bateshorn 9905]

10 minutes ago, idigTexas said:

How does that help?  There is at least hope that we can end up ahead of a 12-1 Oregon.  There is no hope that we will end up ahead of a 13-0 Washington.  

To a degree, the PAC 12 championship game sorta doesn’t apply to Texas. If the Huskies win, they are in the playoffs. If Oregon wins, they are probably in (barring an uninspiring performance and a monster Texas win). 

[Dahobbs 17447]

Just now, dcar00 said:

there is probably a 1 in 10 chance just because college football but Mich has throttled all their middling big 10 opponents sans Maryland.  Iowa has squeaked by in almost all their games to similar opponents.  The defense won't be able to hold out very long if at all and their O is abysmal as usual.

I expect a 30 point drubbing.

I just can't see Iowa scoring on offense. Their defense would need multiple scores to pull off an upset. 

[Pancho 44487]

15 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

it's kinda funny people think there is actually criteria they follow.

 

 

This was my argument last week and people got their balls in a tizzy. There are criteria they consider, and that does mean they have to abide by said criteria. The criteria they consider isn’t a rule or policy.

Essentially, they can do whatever the fuck they want. 

[Bateshorn 9905]

1 minute ago, Dahobbs said:

Your take is wrong, but that isn't why I negged you. 

I understand why you negged me. You want go full Aggie, that’s a choice.  Squeeze those nuts, Sallie. 

[The Dog 43807]

12 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

I have a kid at Oregon. I watch a lot of PAC-12 games.  I also grew up a Horn fan. 
 

If Oregon does what I think they are going to do on Friday, which is put the wood to a Washington team that had every break go their way in the first game, plus Dan Lanning unnecessarily going for it on 4th down and not doing th easy football thing (something Texas fans also have suffered under Sarkisian), and they win by 2+  TDs, y’all will need to absolute demolish Ok. St. to be in the conversation (barring a Michigan, FSU, or Georgia loss). A low scoring single digit win isn’t going to do the trick. It just isn’t. The committee is not going to jump you over an Oregon team that definitively beats an undefeated top 5 team in the CCG.

Rage about it all you want. I will completely give you that the beauty contest is unfair and bullshit. It’s an excellent argument for going to 8 teams. Lanning has been anticipating this and has been very slow to pull starters in blowouts.But be realistic. If it comes down to a beauty contest, your win against Ok. St has to look like Tech and not Iowa State. 

Now maybe Penix will go ham and Lanning will shit the bed, but we are different from A&M in being rational about who we are and what we are looking at 

I agree that Oregon is going to clobber Washington and if we barely beat Okie Lite we have a problem. However, don't underestimate what we did to Tech last Friday - that's the Pac 12's best non conference win and it doesn't look very good. That said, Oregon's one loss was on the road to a team they would have just beat and we'd have no chance to rectify our loss to OU. 

So I understand why Oregon might get in over us should we both win. It's very close though and not the foregone conclusion everyone makes it out to be.

The other thing is I don't understand why everyone thinks Georgia is in no matter what. Their best win is at home over Ole Miss. Their non-conference schedule is a joke. They aren't getting the benefit of the doubt if they lose next week. (they probably beat Bama regardless so this is likely moot)

[The Dog 43807]

Oh and I wouldn't have any hope of Iowa beating Michigan. Iowa is a total fraud and has played ONE team in the Massey top 20 - a 31-0 loss at Penn State. Michigan is going to hammer them.

[idigTexas 2266]

1 minute ago, Bateshorn said:

To a degree, the PAC 12 championship game sorta doesn’t apply to Texas. If the Huskies win, they are in the playoffs. If Oregon wins, they are probably in (barring an uninspiring performance and a monster Texas win). 

Many feel that an Oregon victory still gives us a chance due to the many factors that have been previously mentioned.  So in that regard, The PAC CCG absolutely applies to Texas.  It may seem an insurmountable hill to climb if it comes down to Oregon and Texas for the last spot, but stranger things have happened.  

[Bateshorn 9905]

2 minutes ago, The Dog said:

I agree that Oregon is going to clobber Washington and if we barely beat Okie Lite we have a problem. However, don't underestimate what we did to Tech last Friday - that's the Pac 12's best non conference win and it doesn't look very good. That said, Oregon's one loss was on the road to a team they would have just beat and we'd have no chance to rectify our loss to OU. 

So I understand why Oregon might get in over us should we both win. It's very close though and not the foregone conclusion everyone makes it out to be.

The other thing is I don't understand why everyone thinks Georgia is in no matter what. Their best win is at home over Ole Miss. Their non-conference schedule is a joke. They aren't getting the benefit of the doubt if they lose next week. (they probably beat Bama regardless so this is likely moot)

SECSECSEC and all that puke.

I do think Texas might be the most dangerous team in a playoff with that defense.  And that is probably the best argument for Texas jumping any and all 1 loss teams, including Oregon. I just don’t think the Committee goes to that level of 3D chess.

[dcar00 14035]

5 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

I just can't see Iowa scoring on offense. Their defense would need multiple scores to pull off an upset. 

exactly see "because college football" comment.

[utexas8 1433]

Any chance Iowa knocks off Michigan? That defense is very, very good. 

The same chance OU has beating osu in the big xii championship next weekend.

[DanTheHorn 4901]

7 minutes ago, The Dog said:

So I understand why Oregon might get in over us should we both win. It's very close though and not the foregone conclusion everyone makes it out to be.

The other thing is I don't understand why everyone thinks Georgia is in no matter what. Their best win is at home over Ole Miss. Their non-conference schedule is a joke. They aren't getting the benefit of the doubt if they lose next week. (they probably beat Bama regardless so this is likely moot)

We make it a foregone conclusion to help with the pain. Also, first things first, lets beat OSU and celebrate it like nothing else matters. As far as the CFP I like others will be watching and hoping all day.