THE College Football Playoff Rankings Thread [MICH,WASH,TEX,ALA]

[oh_snap 694]

All the people quoting “the committee has never done X” are missing one critically important distinction: this is the last fucking committee for the 4-team playoff. Any new precedent they set is irrelevant to the future integrity of an already bullshit system. Fuckery will be turned up to an 11 if there’s multiple one loss teams to sort through and agendas and power will be flexed. Anything can be justified because the consequences of doing something controversial are minimal in the long run. 

[Jimbob 417]

2 hours ago, Bodacious Bevo said:

FWIW I hope we continue to play big OOC games. Fuck the playoffs, it makes for more entertainment and helps recruiting. 

If we're left out I hope we don't play this like UGA in '18. 

 

We're 11-1. I refuse to be upset about anything college football related.

Why bother with the early big matchups OOC, we will just play them in the playoffs.  Basically any marquee opponents will either be SEC or B1G,

ACC teams don’t move the needle and B12 can go fuck their own faces.  

[bullet 1596]

7 minutes ago, JBJ said:

Georgia has not kept a lead throughout a single P5 game start to finish this year.  Lots of people only watch our games or believe what they read in the game threads.  We've had a few close games, but not more than anyone else.

Georgia usually lets the other team score first and then steamrolls them in the 2nd or 3rd quarter.

[Gut Wagon 8052]

5 minutes ago, JBJ said:

Georgia has not kept a lead throughout a single P5 game start to finish this year.  Lots of people only watch our games or believe what they read in the game threads.  We've had a few close games, but not more than anyone else.  We are actually #2 in Game Control - behind Michigan.

We haven't trailed much at all this year. Credit to our fast starts, as per usual with Sark scripting the attack. I think UGA tends to get a media mulligan for past achievements and will continue to until they finally lose. 

[blutow 222]

4 minutes ago, hornbri said:

I get why that can happen but it seems like a dumb move by the committee. That is just going to anger and confuse people. 

If they already know any one loss conference champ is going to be ahead of them there is no harm leaving all three ahead. The ones that lose will fall behind Ohio state for the poll that matters anyway. 

Yeah, it's always entertaining when people freak out about those.  But the rankings are supposed to be based on history and not look forward.  I'm guessing they take some consideration about how things might play out in the future (to make their lives easier), but they aren't supposed to and it's a slippery slope if they start doing that.  

[gmr548 16516]

From your lips to the committee’s ears. Hope you’re right but this bs is so subjective. Weirder, more unjust shit has happened.

Has it?

[gmr548 16516]

We took strong off your hands.

[jimmyjazz 45560]

I don't care when points are scored, and nobody else should, either.  Margin of victory should matter.  If an upper P5 team beats Rice by 3, then that's bad, but the timing of points scored over a 60 minute period is virtually immaterial.

[BB65 476]

Texas will be ranked ahead of Oregon this week. 
 

If Oregon beats Washington in the PAC CG they will jump  Texas again. 
 

The committee can then say the criteria listed on their website worked as designed. That’s not to say Texas will not make the cfp, that will be determined by the other cc games

[The_Great_Hornsby 3329]

1 hour ago, hornbri said:

If the committee puts Ohio State behind 1 loss Oregon, Bama, and us they would be sending a sign that conference championships matter since those are the teams that have qualified to play for one.

If Ohio State somehow ends up somewhere in the middle of this group then I will concede all the weight I am putting being a conference champ is wrong and maybe a 1 loss non-champ can be in. 

But I suspect Ohio State is going to land at 8 and the bottom of the one loss list. 

 

This is flawed logic. The conference championships are not yet relevant in this ranking. It will only be relevant AFTER the games are played. At this point in time, they have just as many data points as we do. 

[The_Great_Hornsby 3329]

12 minutes ago, BB65 said:

Texas will be ranked ahead of Oregon this week. 
 

If Oregon beats Washington in the PAC CG they will jump  Texas again. 
 

The committee can then say the criteria listed on their website worked as designed. That’s not to say Texas will not make the cfp, that will be determined by the other cc games

I do not think we will be ahead of Oregon but I am here for it if that happens. I really hope you are right but this committee loves PAC and Oregon didn't look shaky against OSU. Yes I know we have a common opponent that we beat the shit out of compared to them but I don't see them reversing course over 1 week. 

[Jewish Wang 111]

3 hours ago, Hmbre97 said:

You can throw whatever prediction this site makes straight into the garbage. 

 

 

 

1 hour ago, Wulaw Horn said:

The idea that Washington loses and we are behind them (presuming we win) is absurd and you should feel bad for linking that nonsense. 

Yeah, I know. I said I’m looking for resources on this and there’s a shocking dearth of them. Like that was all I found. Better than reading posters being “sure” here that we’re in over UO and Bama no matter what. Well that isn’t the case. 

The only reason I linked it is because chaos is bad bad bad for us. We need all the favorites to hold serve except FSU and UM. Otherwise we’re fucked. 

[Yesh 904]

I don't remember the details, but in 2014 wasn't TCU ranked 3rd leading into the conference championship weekend, and then because they didn't play some other teams that won their conference jumped ahead of them?  It is not exactly the same since other than Ohio St, all of the teams we are discussing are playing this weekend, but it does show that teams can be dropped for reasons other than losing.

[The_Great_Hornsby 3329]

3 minutes ago, Jewish Wang said:

 

Yeah, I know. I said I’m looking for resources on this and there’s a shocking dearth of them. Like that was all I found. Better than reading posters being “sure” here that we’re in over UO and Bama no matter what. Well that isn’t the case. 

The only reason I linked it is because chaos is bad bad bad for us. We need all the favorites to hold serve except FSU and UM. Otherwise we’re fucked. 

If FSU loses and so does Georgia or Washington, we arent "fucked". We are still going to the playoff in that situation. 

Edited November 27, 2023 by The_Great_Hornsby

[dcar00 14035]

43 minutes ago, JBJ said:

Georgia has not kept a lead throughout a single P5 game start to finish this year.  Lots of people only watch our games or believe what they read in the game threads.  We've had a few close games, but not more than anyone else.  We are actually #2 in Game Control - behind Michigan.

committee - "game control, SOS, what is all this BS?  I know football and eye test tells me everything I need to know"

[Jewish Wang 111]

7 minutes ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

If FSU loses and so does Georgia or Washington, we arent "fucked". We are still going to the playoff in that situation. 

UM, Bama, Oregon in for sure. Then it’s a toss up with, depending on the outcomes, UGA, Texas, UW, and tOSU, in that order. 

12 minutes ago, Yesh said:

I don't remember the details, but in 2014 wasn't TCU ranked 3rd leading into the conference championship weekend, and then because they didn't play some other teams that won their conference jumped ahead of them?  It is not exactly the same since other than Ohio St, all of the teams we are discussing are playing this weekend, but it does show that teams can be dropped for reasons other than losing.

Yes. tOSU won their CCG 59-0 over a Wisconsin team that was about as good as OU this year. Totally changed the narrative. TCU and Baylor cancelled each other out, some other shit happened and both were out. If you recall the B12 didn’t have a CCG at that point. That TCU team was much more talented than last year’s. 

[The_Great_Hornsby 3329]

2 minutes ago, Jewish Wang said:

UM, Bama, Oregon in for sure. Then it’s a toss up with, depending on the outcomes, UGA, Texas, UW, and tOSU, in that order. 

Yes. tOSU won their CCG 59-0 over a Wisconsin team that was about as good as OU this year. Totally changed the narrative. TCU and Baylor cancelled each other out, some other shit happened and both were out. If you recall the B12 didn’t have a CCG at that point. That TCU team was much more talented than last year’s. 

So you think a 1 loss Washington non conference champion or OSU could get a spot over a 1 loss conference champion Texas? I know you are on the record with your Georgia theory (and you are very very wrong on that one too). 

[Pancho 44486]

53 minutes ago, BB65 said:

Texas will be ranked ahead of Oregon this week. 
 

 

Are you on the committee?

[Jewish Wang 111]

15 minutes ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

So you think a 1 loss Washington non conference champion or OSU could get a spot over a 1 loss conference champion Texas? I know you are on the record with your Georgia theory (and you are very very wrong on that one too). 

I think all are possibilities. With UW and UGA winning, you eliminate the number of contenders. It is basic logic. 

[UTEE97 3429]

1 hour ago, Jimbob said:

Why bother with the early big matchups OOC,

Because it gets the fans excited and makes the university a lot of money? 

[MrX 714]

And starting next year a loss won’t matter and is a good resume tiebreaker for a 12 team field. 

[The_Great_Hornsby 3329]

1 minute ago, Jewish Wang said:

I think all are possibilities. With UW and UGA winning, you eliminate the number of contenders. It is basic logic. 

But you said, Texas was "fucked" if Washington loses or Georgia loses. Implying you think Texas wont go over either team. Is that your stance? You specifically wrote that the only way we get in is with FSU losing or Iowa losing and UW and GA winning. Anything else and we would be "fucked". 

[The Ace of Aces 5106]

We need FSU to lose at a minimum. If they win I think no matter what happens with the SEC and Pac 12 games the winner goes to the CFP.  

[Hagbard Celine 10763]

4 hours ago, bullet said:

Sagarin SOS:

Washington 26

Michigan 55

Georgia 56

FSU 66

Texas 2

Alabama 15

Ohio St. 31

Oregon 52

ESPN's FPI is a total crock.

most arguments can be made in the transitive and reflexive

one that can't is committee awareness of the rig fuckery cost in yards and points which makes half our wins look like shit when they are actually stout against sagarin

[GTJ1982 378]

Wonder if the committee would have the guts to leave out Alabama if they win next weekend but FSU, Washington, and Michigan finish undefeated conference champs and Texas wins the big 12.  Almost feel that is the best scenario for Texas.  Head to head is part of the criteria.  No amount of twisting and turning could justify putting in Alabama over Texas or undefeated P5 conference champions.  

[C-Man 27057]

5 hours ago, gmr548 said:

The ranked bit is pretty disingenuous, KSU is liable to fall out of the rankings and Utah could re enter (they are right next to each other in the receiving votes field in the AP).

I’d probably give Texas the nod over Oregon based on SOS but there’s not much about handling Oregon State or beating Washington that is going to prompt the committee to drop Oregon below Texas at this point. Maybe Bama beats Georgia by multiple possessions and that win looks significantly better, but that’s about it.

Also that Bama team yesterday isn’t beating Georgia lol

What if they get that Georgia team that "dusted" Georgia Tech by eight?

[Hagbard Celine 10763]

4 hours ago, gmr548 said:

I’ll say I’m coming around to the idea that Texas could jump Oregon if - and only if - Alabama beats Georgia. It would be hard to keep Alabama’s body of work out of the top four there and perhaps the increased value of Texas’s win at Bama vaults them over Oregon, who could be the one left holding the bag due to lower SOS.

i think the committee is going to pre-position this possibility in 48 hours

[GreenspointTexas 9567]

1 minute ago, GTJ1982 said:

Wonder if the committee would have the guts to leave out Alabama if they win next weekend but FSU, Washington, and Michigan finish undefeated conference champs and Texas wins the big 12.  Almost feel that is the best scenario for Texas.  Head to head is part of the criteria.  No amount of twisting and turning could justify putting in Alabama over Texas or undefeated P5 conference champions.  

Yup just came to post this

 

its chaos, especially if both bama and texas and oregon all win

[TexasEd 8064]

8 minutes ago, The Ace of Aces said:

We need FSU to lose at a minimum. If they win I think no matter what happens with the SEC and Pac 12 games the winner goes to the CFP.  

Agree

PAC and SEC champs are in. Michigan and FSU are only guaranteed as conference champs. Texas as a conference champ jumps a 1 loss non conference champ. 

[UTEE97 3429]

2 hours ago, Reynolds Woodcock said:

Just remember that you are on the football board and it should clear up any confusion. Every scenario is blindingly obvious to anyone with a lukewarm IQ.

Most people think they have above average IQs.

[n64ra 1078]

Can't believe OSU is ahead of us in the AP Poll so the CFP could too. The CFP showed last year that the CCG is just one more game. A close Bama victory could have the CFP put both SEC teams in. UGA won't drop 6 spots.

[BB65 476]

30 minutes ago, Pancho said:

 

Are you on the committee?

I’m not at liberty to say

[Bateshorn 9905]

1 hour ago, Gut Wagon said:

We haven't trailed much at all this year. Credit to our fast starts, as per usual with Sark scripting the attack. I think UGA tends to get a media mulligan for past achievements and will continue to until they finally lose. 

Texas, for better or worse, has lots of games where they’ve let opponents stay within a score or two most of the game. Ultimately, a W is a W. But when you are surfing channels on a Saturday, Texas, post Alabama, is the top ten team  most likely to  be in a dog fight when other big top ten names are sitting 4 TD leads middle 3rd quarter. 
 

And a lot of voters, for better or worse, take an impression off that.  When it took tOSU 4 quarters to get a handle on Maryland, people noticed. Texas has multiple games like that.

[The_Great_Hornsby 3329]

11 minutes ago, Hagbard Celine said:

i think the committee is going to pre-position this possibility in 48 hours

How do you think they will rank the top 8?

2 hours ago, Treefidy said:

I mean, Pac is not getting 2 teams in.  There’s no scenario that happens outside a meteor strike that leaves only Washington and Oregon above sea level.

Lol exactly

[markstanco 12509]

This thread is like the realignment thread. A bunch of posts that say the same thing where posters seem to think they have it all figured out.

[Jewish Wang 111]

36 minutes ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

But you said, Texas was "fucked" if Washington loses or Georgia loses. Implying you think Texas wont go over either team. Is that your stance? You specifically wrote that the only way we get in is with FSU losing or Iowa losing and UW and GA winning. Anything else and we would be "fucked". 

I think we’d have to get lucky with that much chaos. What about my stance do you not understand?

[BigHornedLurker 1893]

How would one calculate minutes spent trailing per season ? 

 

I know I could painfully do this from ESPN but is there a site that has this handy per game or something? 

[The_Great_Hornsby 3329]

  

2 minutes ago, n64ra said:

Can't believe OSU is ahead of us in the AP Poll so the CFP could too. The CFP showed last year that the CCG is just one more game. A close Bama victory could have the CFP put both SEC teams in. UGA won't drop 6 spots.

PSA: Texas as a 1 loss conference champion is not going behind a 1 loss non conf champion.

Especially Georgia, when the 4 major criteria they follow are:

1. Conference Championship (Adv Texas, and Texas would own a road win over the SEC champ)

2. Head to head (Not applicable)

3. SOS (Adv Texas)

4. Common Opponents (Adv Texas, we would have beaten Bama on the road and UGA would have lost at a neutral site)

And before anyone tries to say best loss, that argument collapses on itself because their "best loss" is to a team we beat. 

Texas may not go in front of Bama or UO, that is debatable. But OSU, UGA, and Washington arent going in front of us.  

[Jewish Wang 111]

5 minutes ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

  

PSA: Texas as a 1 loss conference champion is not going behind a 1 loss non conf champion.

Especially Georgia, when the 4 major criteria they follow are:

1. Conference Championship (Adv Texas, and Texas would own a road win over the SEC champ)

2. Head to head (Not applicable)

3. SOS (Adv Texas)

4. Common Opponents (Adv Texas, we would have beaten Bama on the road and UGA would have lost at a neutral site)

And before anyone tries to say best loss, that argument collapses on itself because their "best loss" is to a team we beat. 

Texas may not go in front of Bama or UO, that is debatable. But OSU, UGA, and Washington arent going in front of us.  

Lock up the thread. The criteria (mere guidelines) have been cited. Discussion over. 

[Mach 1 1676]

32 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

Texas, for better or worse, has lots of games where they’ve let opponents stay within a score or two most of the game. Ultimately, a W is a W. But when you are surfing channels on a Saturday, Texas, post Alabama, is the top ten team  most likely to  be in a dog fight when other big top ten names are sitting 4 TD leads middle 3rd quarter. 
 

And a lot of voters, for better or worse, take an impression off that.  When it took tOSU 4 quarters to get a handle on Maryland, people noticed. Texas has multiple games like that.

Hey man, I’m In agreement that Texas is unfortunately on the outside looking in, but don’t keep pushing out arguments that are contrary to your thesis. Re: Washington and Alabama.

Forgot to add FSU.

Edited November 27, 2023 by Mach 1

[Brew 3047]

2 hours ago, Gut Wagon said:

We haven't trailed much at all this year. Credit to our fast starts, as per usual with Sark scripting the attack. I think UGA tends to get a media mulligan for past achievements and will continue to until they finally lose. 

It’s a very odd take with a team that has no losses that they are living on past achievements until they lose Wouldn't they also be living on current achievements by definition since they are undefeated?

[Bateshorn 9905]

35 minutes ago, Mach 1 said:

Hey man, I’m In agreement that Texas is unfortunately on the outside looking in, but don’t keep pushing out arguments that are contrary to your thesis. Re: Washington and Alabama.

Forgot to add FSU.

Agreed about Alabama, that SECSECSEC bias is real and bullshit. Washington and FSU  are still undefeated. They get the benefit of the doubt at this stage in the season. And Washington has a ton of underwhelming wins.  

To your larger point: prolly time for me to step back on this thing. 

Edited November 27, 2023 by Bateshorn

[Mach 1 1676]

9 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

Agreed about Alabama, that SECSECSEC bias is real and bullshit. Washington and FSU  are still undefeated. They get the benefit of the doubt at this stage in the season. And Washington has a ton of underwhelming wins.  

To your larger point: prolly time for me to step back on this thing. 

You referenced top 10 ten teams in prior posts. I think you meant top 10 ahead of us. Not fucking with you, but I get what you’re saying, and I think your argument is valid but debatable.  This weekend will decide if we should scream bloody murder or say aiight.

[oh_snap 694]

1 hour ago, GTJ1982 said:

Wonder if the committee would have the guts to leave out Alabama if they win next weekend but FSU, Washington, and Michigan finish undefeated conference champs and Texas wins the big 12.  Almost feel that is the best scenario for Texas.  Head to head is part of the criteria.  No amount of twisting and turning could justify putting in Alabama over Texas or undefeated P5 conference champions.  

I don’t agree with what I’m about to say, but I’ll make the counter case—-

the head to head criteria only comes into play if the teams are closely matched. If Bama beats Georgia, the committee will say Bama is so much better than Texas, that they won’t invoke that piece of criteria. Bama would be #2-3 compared to #6-7 Texas. 
 

It’s total bullshit, but unfortunately for us that’s how they’ll justify ignoring the h2h.

[dcar00 14035]

7 hours ago, BurgleBro said:

That was Texas strategy most the last 15 years and we failed to win the conference and convert that into a national title. 

 

 

well yeah.  we had one coach quit on the job, one who couldn't actually field a competitive D1 football team, and an asshole who didn't believe in momentum.

[conVINCEd 21468]

1 hour ago, Jewish Wang said:

I think we’d have to get lucky with that much chaos. What about my stance do you not understand?

You need to be crowdsourced.

[Gut Wagon 8052]

8 minutes ago, Brew said:

It’s a very odd take with a team that has no losses that they are living on past achievements until they lose Wouldn't they also be living on current achievements by definition since they are undefeated?

Of course. They've not been good at all against the spread this year (4-7-1 vs. our 6-6), but they've still won every week. Were they not the 2X defending champs, I'm not sure this year's play would have earned them their current No. 1 ranking. But such a great track record going into 2023 reinforced the media and fans' perception that Georgia always will find a way to win, no matter what.

Even in close games they aren't really seen as being in trouble. I mean, they had a game last night in a rival's stadium, but nobody seemed to be on "upset alert" even when the score was close. Few other teams (Bama among them) would get that same benefit of the doubt by the fans or media. Again, it's perception rooted as much in the past few years of history as in Georgia's performance so far this fall. I just don't know if such biases subconsciously enter into the committee's thinking, whether for or against a team.

[atomheartbevo 89449]

11 minutes ago, oh_snap said:

It’s total bullshit, but unfortunately for us that’s how they’ll justify ignoring the h2h.

They won't ignore it.  If it comes down to UT or Alabama, the makeup of the committee is not going to slob Nick Saban's knob (and plenty of them have losses to him in some form or fashion).

I'm more concerned about another conference getting in over UT, because the committee has more than enough members affiliated with other conferences, that in a tight vote, will hurt us.

33 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

that SECSECSEC bias is real and bullshit. 

Normally I'd agree, but there's one active SEC team on the committee and it's Kentucky, along with R.C. Slocum (who will vote against us no matter what).  Kentucky won't have any love for Alabama, and there's plenty of committee members who if they do not downright hate the SEC/Alabama, wouldn't shed one single tear if they didn't make it in.

I'm more worried about Gene Taylor (K-State's AD) and Colorado's AD, along with the Big 10 affiliated members, fucking us over, because that's 5 right there (well maybe 4, because the former Penn State player probably has no love for Michigan or Ohio State).

It's fucking shit though, and I'm giving my Okie relatives shit for OU dropping a second game when it would have helped us out if they were one loss (plus it'd give us a chance at revenge in the CCG).

[Wilcox Cummingtonite 2870]

Edited November 27, 2023 by Wilcox Cummingtonite

[oh_snap 694]

11 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Normally I'd agree, but there's one active SEC team on the committee and it's Kentucky, along with R.C. Slocum (who will vote against us no matter what).  

May want to check your list. Arrrcee rolled off the committee back in 2022