THE College Football Playoff Rankings Thread [MICH,WASH,TEX,ALA]

[Majorcholas 557]

I don’t understand how Oregon is consistently ahead of us. We have better resume as far as wins go. SOS is in our favor. Common opponent they barely beat and we PUMMELED. I don’t get it

[Coelenterate Fuccboi 13386]

6 minutes ago, Majorcholas said:

I don’t understand how Oregon is consistently ahead of us. We have better resume as far as wins go. SOS is in our favor. Common opponent they barely beat and we PUMMELED. I don’t get it

Interesting, this hasn’t been discussed…

[Surly Bevo 25655]

I don’t understand how Oregon is consistently ahead of us. We have better resume as far as wins go. SOS is in our favor. Common opponent they barely beat and we PUMMELED. I don’t get it

Mainly because after we both lost close games in early/mid October they throttled teams by 14, 29, 44 then beat USC by 9 and then applied two more throttlings of 36 and 24. Their loss still hasn’t lost (while ours has stumbled twice) and we spent time dicking around with UH and TCU who are not well thought of this season.

Like it or not that is what they mean when they talk about the “eye test”.

[LonghornSean 4072]

32 minutes ago, Majorcholas said:

I don’t understand how Oregon is consistently ahead of us. We have better resume as far as wins go. SOS is in our favor. Common opponent they barely beat and we PUMMELED. I don’t get it

 

21 minutes ago, Surly Bevo said:

Mainly because after we both lost close games in early/mid October they throttled teams by 14, 29, 44 then beat USC by 9 and then applied two more throttlings of 36 and 24. Their loss still hasn’t lost (while ours has stumbled twice) and we spent time dicking around with UH and TCU who are not well thought of this season.

Like it or not that is what they mean when they talk about the “eye test”.

Yes, it’s basically due to rankings inertia where Oregon won in dominant fashion for a few weeks while we escaped with wins and that essentially set the pecking order going forward. Oregon didn’t give them any reason to question their initial relative ranking of them and Texas so it hasn’t changed. With a game against Washington it’s hard to see that changing after this week. Not impossible, but unlikely IMO.

[Brew 3049]

1 hour ago, Gut Wagon said:

Of course. They've not been good at all against the spread this year (4-7-1 vs. our 6-6), but they've still won every week. Were they not the 2X defending champs, I'm not sure this year's play would have earned them their current No. 1 ranking. But such a great track record going into 2023 reinforced the media and fans' perception that Georgia always will find a way to win, no matter what.

Even in close games they aren't really seen as being in trouble. I mean, they had a game last night in a rival's stadium, but nobody seemed to be on "upset alert" even when the score was close. Few other teams (Bama among them) would get that same benefit of the doubt by the fans or media. Again, it's perception rooted as much in the past few years of history as in Georgia's performance so far this fall. I just don't know if such biases subconsciously enter into the committee's thinking, whether for or against a team.

To be fair they started off at 2 and moved to 1 in week 3 when they throttled Mizzou and Ole Miss back to back. I would say 40-1 over 3 seasons and the current year performance earns them some benefit of the doubt, but seriously who are you ranking ahead of them right now? If you’re trying to argue them behind TX if they lose, then just go with the conference champ argument. To question their standing as of right now and argue media bias is just dumb based on any metric you look at.

[The_Great_Hornsby 3586]

9 minutes ago, Brew said:

To be fair they started off at 2 and moved to 1 in week 3 when they throttled Mizzou and Ole Miss back to back. I would say 40-1 over 3 seasons and the current year performance earns them some benefit of the doubt, but seriously who are you ranking ahead of them right now? If you’re trying to argue them behind TX if they lose, then just go with the conference champ argument. To question their standing as of right now and argue media bias is just dumb based on any metric you look at.

They did NOT throttle Mizzou. Go check the box score again. They did throttle paper tiger Ole Miss. 

[Hank_Hill 19764]

5 hours ago, oh_snap said:

All the people quoting “the committee has never done X” are missing one critically important distinction: this is the last fucking committee for the 4-team playoff. Any new precedent they set is irrelevant to the future integrity of an already bullshit system. Fuckery will be turned up to an 11 if there’s multiple one loss teams to sort through and agendas and power will be flexed. Anything can be justified because the consequences of doing something controversial are minimal in the long run. 

That…actually sounds better for us

[texastroubadour 1252]

I hate Finebaum. The “the 4 best teams are Ala GA Mich Ohio State” shit he espouses. The media in general (Heather  Dinnich comes to mind) are certain of one thing: Bama should get in over Texas (with a W over GA).

I just don’t see a way we get in. The Texas  hate is deep and wide

[Mother mopar 3379]

Wonder if the committee would have the guts to leave out Alabama if they win next weekend but FSU, Washington, and Michigan finish undefeated conference champs and Texas wins the big 12.  Almost feel that is the best scenario for Texas.  Head to head is part of the criteria.  No amount of twisting and turning could justify putting in Alabama over Texas or undefeated P5 conference champions.  

If that happens it would strengthen our argument. Now Texas has beaten the SEC champs as well so they've earned the right to get in.

[BigHornedLurker 2109]

Media slobknobbers : we let in a texas team and they got hosed by Georgia just last year ! 

[AbraCadabra 120]

18 hours ago, oh_snap said:

They are a 2-time defending champion that has won something crazy like 45 out of their last 46 games. Yes, each season is different, but would be hard to leave them out.
Look, no one knows for certain what the committee will do… but as a Texas fan that has watched our possible avenues to the CFP get slimmer each week as we get chalky results, I personally think the bama beating uga scenario makes it even harder. No one knows for certain though because humans are involved, and anyone saying otherwise is just your typical message board tough guy. 

Yeah, as much as we may not like it, Georgia is the only team that's in the CFP no matter what happens next week.

Which means we need Alabama and FSU to lose. 

[The_Great_Hornsby 3586]

27 minutes ago, AbraCadabra said:

Yeah, as much as we may not like it, Georgia is the only team that's in the CFP no matter what happens next week.

Which means we need Alabama and FSU to lose. 

No they are not. If Georgia loses, they are out, barring a lot of chaos. 

[mdmost 43850]

12 minutes ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

No they are not. If Georgia loses, they are out, barring a lot of chaos. 

[JBJ 3780]

1 hour ago, AbraCadabra said:

Yeah, as much as we may not like it, Georgia is the only team that's in the CFP no matter what happens next week.

Which means we need Alabama and FSU to lose. 

Rooting for Georgia only makes sense if we have already (for intensive porpoises) clinched a spot.  If Georgia wins, they will be above us and Bama below; if Georgia loses, both might either be above or below us.  You root for the chaos until you have a place virtually secured, then you root for the predictable outcome.

It's the same way with Washington and Oregon. How things currently stand we want Oregon and Alabama to win. 

Edited November 27, 2023 by JBJ

[UTEE97 3890]

People who are hitching their wagons to our h2h win over Bama will be severely disappointed when Bama gets in over us with a win over UGA. Fair or not, that's how it will go down.

[BigHornedLurker 2109]

1 minute ago, UTEE97 said:

People who are hitching their wagons to our h2h win over Bama will be severely disappointed when Bama gets in over us with a win over UGA. Fair or not, that's how it will go down.

I'd this happens I hope we get Georgia in the cotton bowl , 

 

If Bama wins out I'd be talking  shit for the end of time 

[UTEE97 3890]

8 minutes ago, JBJ said:

Rooting for Georgia only makes sense if we have already (for intensive porpoises) clinched a spot.  If Georgia wins, they will be above us and Bama below; if Georgia loses, both might either be above or below us.  You root for the chaos until you have a place virtually secured, then you root for the predictable outcome.

It's the same way with Washington and Oregon. How things currently stand we want Oregon and Alabama to win. 

Chaos in a weak conference with only one contender is good. Chaos in a strong conference with multiple contenders is not good. There is a general perception that certain teams are elite given their recent history. For them to have a close loss doesn't sway that general perception unfortunately.

[The_Great_Hornsby 3586]

13 minutes ago, JBJ said:

Rooting for Georgia only makes sense if we have already (for intensive porpoises) clinched a spot.  If Georgia wins, they will be above us and Bama below; if Georgia loses, both might either be above or below us.  You root for the chaos until you have a place virtually secured, then you root for the predictable outcome.

It's the same way with Washington and Oregon. How things currently stand we want Oregon and Alabama to win. 

Order of Games: Friday PM: PAC Champ, Sat AM: Big 12 Champ, Sat 3PM: SEC Champ, Sat PM: Big 10 Champ and ACC champ

For what it is worth, I dont see Bama beating Georgia. Milroe is a low IQ QB and I think they will expose that like Texas did. Georgia will only lose if they turn the ball over multiple times. 

[utee94 16066]

4 minutes ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

Order of Games: Friday PM: PAC Champ, Sat AM: Big 12 Champ, Sat 3PM: SEC Champ, Sat PM: Big 10 Champ and ACC champ

For what it is worth, I dont see Bama beating Georgia. Milroe is a low IQ QB and I think they will expose that like Texas did. Georgia will only lose if they turn the ball over multiple times. 

Yeah I think Alabama has the athletes and coaching to keep it close through the half, maybe even lead if they get ahead in turnovers.  But by the 4th quarter I expect Georgia to finally overpower them, and win by 10-14.

[Vic Mackey 47846]

.

[52-80 19379]

People argue endlessly about where teams should be in the ranking, but nobody ever establishes what the ranking is supposed to represent.  Is it the best 4 teams today?  Or the best 4 teams over the course of the season?

I blame the CFP for that.  In their charter, they don't make it explicit. Sometimes one is implied, sometimes the other is.

https://collegefootballplayoff.com/sports/2016/10/11/faq
 

Quote

 

How are teams chosen?

The four teams that go to the College Football Playoff are determined by the College Football Playoff Selection Committee. The selection committee chooses the four teams for the playoff based on strength of schedule, head-to-head results against common opponents, championships won and other factors. 

 

https://collegefootballplayoff.com/sports/2017/9/20/selection-committee-faq

Quote

What criteria does the committee use?

The selection committee ranks the teams based on the members’ evaluation of the teams’ performance on the field, using conference championships won, strength of schedule, head-to-head results and comparison of results against common opponents to decide among teams that are comparable. The selection committee is comprised of experts in college football, and they use their expertise in the deliberations.

https://collegefootballplayoff.com/sports/2016/10/24/selection-committee-protocol

Quote

Proposed Selection Process:
Establish a selection committee that will be instructed to place an emphasis on winning conference championships, strength of schedule and head‐to‐head competition when comparing teams with similar records and pedigree (treat final determination like a tie‐breaker; apply specific guidelines).

The criteria to be provided to the selection committee must be aligned with the ideals of the commissioners, presidents, athletic directors and coaches to honor regular season success while at the same time providing enough flexibility and discretion to select a non‐champion or independent under circumstances where that particular non‐champion or independent is unequivocally one of the four best teams in the country.

When circumstances at the margins indicate that teams are comparable, then the following criteria must be considered:

• Championships won
• Strength of schedule
• Head‐to‐head competition (if it occurred)
• Comparative outcomes of common opponents (without incenting margin of victory)

 

Conference Championship seems like the leading horse...

[Red Five 41596]

2 minutes ago, Vic Mackey said:

.

52% for Ohio State huh. 

[Frank Drebin 5824]

7 minutes ago, Vic Mackey said:

.

Whoever made those odds is regarded.  If Georgia loses on Saturday, they are out.  Unless the odds are Georgia has an 84% chance of winning.

How do you put them, a one loss non-conference champion, over a conference champion that also has one loss and a much better SOS?  A team that went on the road and beat by double digits the team that just beat Georgia in Atlanta, Georgia?

There is no fucking way UGA gets in if they lose Saturday to Alabama unless Texas and a couple others lose.

And Ohio State has little to no chance over Texas.

Edited November 27, 2023 by Frank Drebin

[Red Five 41596]

1 minute ago, Frank Drebin said:

Whoever made those odds is regarded.  If Georgia loses on Saturday, they are out.  Unless the odds are Georgia has an 84% chance of winning.

How do you put them, a one loss non-conference champion, over a conference champion that also has one loss and a much better SOS?  A team that went on the road and beat by double digits the team that just beat Georgia in Atlanta, Georgia?

There is no fucking way UGA gets in if they lose Saturday to Alabama unless Texas and a couple others lose.

Also, we're in with an FSU loss. That alone is much more likely than 11%. 

[Js1 86939]

14 minutes ago, Frank Drebin said:

How do you put them, a one loss non-conference champion, over a conference champion that also has one loss and a much better SOS?  A team that went on the road and beat by double digits the team that just beat Georgia in Atlanta, Georgia?

 

They won’t bc the committee doesn’t do that. You win your champ game with 1 loss, you’re slotted ahead of a 1-loss non champ. Yes, hypothetically, the committee could decide 9 years of data where they continuously have valued 1 loss champions over 1 loss non champs over 2 loss champs means nothing, but it’s not very likely. 

Georgia loses, barring massive chaos in the ACC and Big 12 and Big 10, and they are out. Ohio State is out, barring major chaos in the ACC, Big 12, SEC and Big 10. And even then, 12-1 Michigan should be in before an 11-1 Ohio State, 100%. 

Sunday morning, the drama is most likely going to be 12-1 Texas or 12-1 Oregon and maybe 12-1 Alabama. I don’t have high confidence for FSU beating Louisville. Gata sucks and FSU almost lost that one. The magic ends in Charlotte without Jordan Travis. 

Edited November 27, 2023 by Js1
Went full katfid

[hook me 2140]

2 minutes ago, Js1 said:

They won’t bc the committee doesn’t do that. You win your champ game with 1 loss, you’re slotted ahead of a 1-loss non champ. Yes, hypothetically, the committee could decide 9 years of data where they continuously have valued 1 loss champions over 1 loss non champs over 2 loss champs means nothing, but it’s not very likely. 

Georgia loses, barring massive chaos in the ACC and Big 12 and Big 10, and they are out. Ohio State is out, barring major chaos in the ACC, Big 12, SEC and Big 10. And even then, 12-1 Michigan should be in before an 11-1 Ohio State, 100%. 

Sunday morning, the drama is most likely going to be 12-1 Texas or 12-1 Oregon and maybe 12-1 Alabama. I don’t have high confidence for FSU beating Louisville. Gata sucks and FSU almost lost that one. The magic ends in Charlotte without Travis Hunter. 

They've gone 12-0 without Travis Hunter so I don't see where him not being in Charlotte would make a difference.

[Js1 86939]

1 minute ago, hook me said:

They've gone 12-0 without Travis Hunter so I don't see where him not being in Charlotte would make a difference.

Jordan Travis. Whatever 

[Alien Octopus 630]

1 minute ago, hook me said:

They've gone 12-0 without Travis Hunter so I don't see where him not being in Charlotte would make a difference.

You mean 1-0

[Js1 86939]

2 minutes ago, hook me said:

They've gone 12-0 without Travis Hunter so I don't see where him not being in Charlotte would make a difference.

[UTEE97 3890]

https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/2023-11-26/college-football-playoff-rankings-predictions-what-conference-championship-week-could#:~:text=Even with a loss to,loss%2C but there's a chance.

[The Dog 44771]

Oregon/Washington is a play-in game. Winner goes and loser goes to a bowl. Oregon over Texas even if we win because they beat everyone on their schedule.

Yes, I know about the Tech thing as I've brought that up myself but I think this is where the committee lands. Sucks for us but I can live with that. 

If Florida State or Michigan loses then Alabama/Georgia becomes a play-in game and Texas is in with a win.

If Bama wins and Texas wins then Texas is in over Bama due to head to head. SEC honks will scream bloody murder while ignoring the fact that the Big XII champ will have beaten the SEC champ. Again, easiest decision to defend.

The only non-conference champ who has a shot is Ohio State and they would need two of Texas, Georgia, Florida State, and Michigan to lose. Maybe Georgia backs in over them. 

I think all of the undefeateds win except for Washington so the playoff will be Oregon, Michigan, Georgia, FSU. 

[hook me 2140]

5 minutes ago, Alien Octopus said:

You mean 1-0

No, I didn't

[Texas Wahoo 3627]

 

 

 

[Js1 86939]

I mean, I would have big issues with 12-1 Texas going over 13-0 FSU. You beat everyone on your schedule in a P5 conference and won your champ game, you’re in. 

Injuries happen and they suck. But if FSU beat 2 P5 teams with their backup, they should be in 

[blutow 238]

I'll be interested where FSU lands in tomorrow's rankings.  They "deserve" to be #4 and I expect them to be ranked there, but are clearly not the 4th best team right now.  If the committee has them lower than 4, it obviously opens the possibility of them being left out after going undefeated.  I know it's unprecedented and I personally wouldn't agree with it, but something unprecedented is going to happen this year if Bama/Texas/FSU/Oregon all win.   

One reason I think there is a small chance of FSU getting excluded was the committee chairman making comments about considering injuries on the show a couple weeks ago.  It was a really short segment and he brought up injury considerations 2 times (but wasn't clear about how they consider them).  You really have to go back to what the committee is even trying to accomplish.  It's never been only about picking the best teams and it's not about most deserving either, it's some squishy hybrid between the 2.    

[Texasborn91 1083]

1 hour ago, UTEE97 said:

People who are hitching their wagons to our h2h win over Bama will be severely disappointed when Bama gets in over us with a win over UGA. Fair or not, that's how it will go down.

IMG_2056.webp

[Valmy77 13567]

Yeah we need FSU to lose to Louisville or some truly bizarre shit to happen.

Fortunately this is the last time we have to endure this bullshit as a one loss team. I know it has been a while since 2008 and 2004 but the garbage our 1 loss teams have had to endure is just ridiculous. So tired of it. It would be cool for things to work out just once.

[ChickenNuggets 1661]

14 hours ago, BB65 said:

Texas will be ranked ahead of Oregon this week. 
 

If Oregon beats Washington in the PAC CG they will jump  Texas again. 
 

The committee can then say the criteria listed on their website worked as designed. That’s not to say Texas will not make the cfp, that will be determined by the other cc games

Texas jumping Oregon this week should be the case given our comparable victories over Tech. But alas, we live in an imperfect world so i doubt it happens.

I think the two concerns I have are:

1. If Bama beats Georgia, will the committee put both into the playoffs. I think that is very much a possibility, at which point PAC-12, Big10, and SEC are competing for the NC and Big12/ACC are left out.

2. If FSU beats Louisville, regardless of what happens in other conferences, we'll be cockblocked. 

 

IMHO, we need a decisive win over OSU, a decisive win for Georgia over Alabama, and an FSU loss. Then we'll have Washington/Oregon, Michigan, Georgia, and Texas in the playoffs.

[LateAughtsHorn 588]

1 minute ago, Valmy77 said:

Yeah we need FSU to lose to Louisville or some truly bizarre shit to happen.

Fortunately this is the last time we have to endure this bullshit as a one loss team. I know it has been a while since 2008 and 2004 but the garbage our 1 loss teams have had to endure is just ridiculous. So tired of it. It would be cool for things to work out just once.

Our 2004 team actually got the best deal possible.

[JBJ 3780]

A non-conference Champ is not making it this year, bar complete disaster.  If one were to make it, it would be tOSU, not Georgia.

Edited November 27, 2023 by JBJ

[Frank Drebin 5824]

2 minutes ago, ChickenNuggets said:

Texas jumping Oregon this week should be the case given our comparable victories over Tech. But alas, we live in an imperfect world so i doubt it happens.

I think the two concerns I have are:

1. If Bama beats Georgia, will the committee put both into the playoffs. I think that is very much a possibility, at which point PAC-12, Big10, and SEC are competing for the NC and Big12/ACC are left out.

2. If FSU beats Louisville, regardless of what happens in other conferences, we'll be cockblocked. 

 

IMHO, we need a decisive win over OSU, a decisive win for Georgia over Alabama, and an FSU loss. Then we'll have Washington/Oregon, Michigan, Georgia, and Texas in the playoffs.

I think we get the SEC's spot if we blow out Okie State and Alabama wins a close one against Georgia.

I am pulling for Alabama, Louisville, and Iowa this weekend.

Any win, decisive or not, by UGA means Alabama is out.  Alabama is less likely to make the playoffs than Texas unless they blow out UGA and we win a close one or lose.

[Js1 86939]

1 minute ago, LateAughtsHorn said:

Our 2004 team actually got the best deal possible.

Hence we need Sark to get some TV time if we win on Saturday morning. AAC champ game, ACC champ game, B1G champ game (maybe not, bc Fox) to make our case, like Mack 2004. 

SOS

Best win of the regular season 

Result versus common opponent in Tech

[n64ra 1149]

12 hours ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

  

PSA: Texas as a 1 loss conference champion is not going behind a 1 loss non conf champion.

Especially Georgia, when the 4 major criteria they follow are:

1. Conference Championship (Adv Texas, and Texas would own a road win over the SEC champ)

2. Head to head (Not applicable)

3. SOS (Adv Texas)

4. Common Opponents (Adv Texas, we would have beaten Bama on the road and UGA would have lost at a neutral site)

And before anyone tries to say best loss, that argument collapses on itself because their "best loss" is to a team we beat. 

Texas may not go in front of Bama or UO, that is debatable. But OSU, UGA, and Washington arent going in front of us.  

The committee can care about an undefeated regular season. They can care about 'best loss,' which UO, OSU, UGA, and Washington would have over us.  OSU will have the toughest time with 1 less game / win.

[ChickenNuggets 1661]

4 minutes ago, Frank Drebin said:

I think we get the SEC's spot if we blow out Okie State and Alabama wins a close one against Georgia.

I am pulling for Alabama, Louisville, and Iowa this weekend.

Any win, decisive or not, by UGA means Alabama is out.  Alabama is less likely to make the playoffs than Texas unless they blow out UGA and we win a close one or lose.

why on earth would you root for Alabama? what possible good would their winning do for us? Do you think that would eliminate the SEC from the playoffs?

Edit: (on a conference call and my reading comprehension took a hit...) There is no way the SEC is bumped out of the playoffs if Georgia loses to Alabama. 

Edited November 27, 2023 by ChickenNuggets

[UncleSonny 6790]

17 minutes ago, Js1 said:

I mean, I would have big issues with 12-1 Texas going over 13-0 FSU. You beat everyone on your schedule in a P5 conference and won your champ game, you’re in. 

Injuries happen and they suck. But if FSU beat 2 P5 teams with their backup, they should be in 

Agree. If FSU wins on Saturday it would be fucked to leave them out, whether that’s in favor of us or non conference champs Georgia. The only way an undefeated P5 champ should miss the playoffs would be if there happened to be 5 of them. 

It’s a stupid system, but it is what it is. 

[utee94 16066]

5 minutes ago, ChickenNuggets said:

O, we need a decisive win over OSU, a decisive win for Georgia over Alabama, and an FSU loss. Then we'll have Washington/Oregon, Michigan, Georgia, and Texas in the playoffs.

Provided Texas beats oSu, an FSU loss by itself puts Texas in, without any other considerations.  Georgia/Alabama is irrelevant, Washington/Oregon is irrelevant.

Same goes for a Michigan loss (yeah, I know that's not going to happen).

[ChickenNuggets 1661]

1 minute ago, utee94 said:

Provided Texas beats oSu, an FSU loss by itself puts Texas in, without any other considerations.  Georgia/Alabama is irrelevant, Washington/Oregon is irrelevant.

Same goes for a Michigan loss (yeah, I know that's not going to happen).

I think the committee puts a 1-loss alabama team who just beat Georgia in with Georgia and eliminates Texas. 

[JBJ 3780]

It's literally the most no-brain scenario for the committee.  3 undefeated champs and the other two champs already played each other.  There's zero controversy in this scenario.  You are completely regarded if you think they choose a big controversy over the obvious.

Edited November 27, 2023 by JBJ

[mdmost 43850]

Texas can jump Oregon this week in the rankings but it would make no difference if Oregon beats an undefeated Washington on Friday and Texas beats oSu. Oregon would go right back over us as their win is better than ours. FSU losing is our only path. Bama winning doesn't help us. Bama or Oregon beating an undefeated is bigger than Texas beating a team that lost 3 games. I think Georgia is still out if they lose to Bama because then Texas has a win over the team that has a win against an undefeated team. But that doesn't change things if FSU wins out. It just shuffles who goes in between Bama or Georgia. Undefeated trumps one loss every time. People would be howling if FSU gets passed over should they win out despite all they went through. We would howl if Texas had gotten passed over because Maalik had to come get out two wins with Quinn being out. 

[utee94 16066]

2 minutes ago, ChickenNuggets said:

I think the committee puts a 1-loss alabama team who just beat Georgia in with Georgia and eliminates Texas. 

No