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THE College Football Playoff Rankings Thread [MICH,WASH,TEX,ALA]

texifornia

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Dahobbs

Dahobbs 17447

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1 hour ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

Order of Games: Friday PM: PAC Champ, Sat AM: Big 12 Champ, Sat 3PM: SEC Champ, Sat PM: Big 10 Champ and ACC champ

For what it is worth, I dont see Bama beating Georgia. Milroe is a low IQ QB and I think they will expose that like Texas did. Georgia will only lose if they turn the ball over multiple times. 

Georgia has been vulnerable when it hasn't been able to dominate the line of scrimmage. While it may dominate Alabama's offensive line, its oline will also face problems. I think Milroe is an x factor that gets Bama over Georgia. 

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1 minute ago, Dahobbs said:

Georgia has been vulnerable when it hasn't been able to dominate the line of scrimmage. While it may dominate Alabama's offensive line, its oline will also face problems. I think Milroe is an x factor that gets Bama over Georgia. 

Milroe has faded hard against every single decent defense he's faced.  Bama also has not been tested in the air much since Texas.  They didn't do well.

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Js1

Js1 85110

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2 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

Georgia has been vulnerable when it hasn't been able to dominate the line of scrimmage. While it may dominate Alabama's offensive line, its oline will also face problems. I think Milroe is an x factor that gets Bama over Georgia. 

Jawja fans are def worried about Milroe’s legs killing them with the LB injuries they’ve had. I think Dumas-Johnson is week to week but hasn’t played in 2 weeks 

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Valmy77

Valmy77 13094

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1 minute ago, AnotherLawyer said:

How fucking old are you? 12? We lost points in the AP, Coach's, etc. It was the computer polls that boosted us. Mack's politicking had the opposite effect in the polls where people did the voting.

The whole situation was humiliating and the team that beat us was 12-0. It was ridiculous.

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blutow

blutow 222

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Posted
3 minutes ago, mdmost said:

We would howl if Texas had gotten passed over because Maalik had to come get out two wins with Quinn being out. 

Apples and Oranges...  They wouldn't pass Texas over because of Maalik because that was weeks ago.  FSU is currently operating with a very shaky backup (and their starter isn't coming back).  If he looks terrible again this week, that doesn't help FSU's case.  In my opinion, FSU should absolutely be in if they win even if they look like crap, but it's being debated in the media.  

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mdmost

mdmost 42865

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3 minutes ago, Red Five said:

There is a lot of garbage in the SEC this year. They should not be guaranteed a spot, depending on how things shake out.

True but Georgia has won the National Championship two years in a row. That carries a lot of cache. So Bama beating that team will win the day. 

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Reynolds Woodcock

Reynolds Woodcock 4669

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3 minutes ago, mdmost said:

Texas can jump Oregon this week in the rankings but it would make no difference if Oregon beats an undefeated Washington on Friday and Texas beats oSu. Oregon would go right back over us as their win is better than ours. FSU losing is our only path. Bama winning doesn't help us. 

You are wrong, as has been explained many times. Bama beating Georgia absolutely helps us, although by no means guarantees we get in. It strengthens our win compared to Oregon’s win over Washington (whereas if Bama loses, Oregon can claim both a better win and a better loss compared to us). If Bama, Texas, Oregon and FSU all win, I’m betting Texas gets in. Whether that’s over Oregon or Bama, I’m not sure. If Georgia, FSU and Oregon win, we are toast.

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Red Five

Red Five 40664

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1 minute ago, mdmost said:

True but Georgia has won the National Championship two years in a row. That carries a lot of cache. So Bama beating that team will win the day. 

I want to get ahead of "Well the SEC HAS to get in...." if it's down to Texas and Bama for spot 4. Well no, they don't, because we've already settled that matchup. 

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Js1

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I hate the idea that you can use your CCG opponent as a “best win.” That’s fully out of your control. Texas would have 100% proffered (stupid Subway ads) OU versus OSU to boost their resume.

Texas still has the best win of the regular season of any team, period, and that’s what you can control. 

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Valmy77

Valmy77 13094

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Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, LateAughtsHorn said:

Cal fans are the only people that still remember or care about that. The following results for both teams shut everybody else up.

There are Cal fans?

Ok. I was talking about how much it sucked at the time.

Sure once we beat Michigan we proved ourselves. But the fact a 10-1 had to prove it wasn't shitty was a little ridiculous.

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The_Great_Hornsby

The_Great_Hornsby 3329

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21 minutes ago, ChickenNuggets said:

Texas jumping Oregon this week should be the case given our comparable victories over Tech. But alas, we live in an imperfect world so i doubt it happens.

I think the two concerns I have are:

1. If Bama beats Georgia, will the committee put both into the playoffs. I think that is very much a possibility, at which point PAC-12, Big10, and SEC are competing for the NC and Big12/ACC are left out.

2. If FSU beats Louisville, regardless of what happens in other conferences, we'll be cockblocked. 

 

IMHO, we need a decisive win over OSU, a decisive win for Georgia over Alabama, and an FSU loss. Then we'll have Washington/Oregon, Michigan, Georgia, and Texas in the playoffs.

2 loss Bama isnt sniffing the playoffs no matter if they lose by 1 or 50

confused-wth.gif

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ChickenNuggets

ChickenNuggets 1611

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4 minutes ago, AnotherLawyer said:

How fucking old are you? 12? We lost points in the AP, Coach's, etc. It was the computer polls that boosted us. Mack's politicking had the opposite effect in the polls where people did the voting.

BCS rankings: Why AP Top 25 Poll withdrew in 2004 - Sports Illustrated

This article contradicts your memory. 

 

"... Then came the 2004 season, which was marked by two controversies that left Cal and Auburn feeling jilted and put the polls that determined their fate in a burdensome position.

Thanks to a late push from voters in the AP and coaches polls resulted in the Texas jumped Cal for the No. 4 spot in the BCS rankings, a week after both teams had finished their regular seasons, which put the Longhorns in position for selection to the Rose Bowl. Three AP voters in Texas flipped their votes in favor of UT following a soapbox speech from coach Mack Brown."

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mdmost

mdmost 42865

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1 minute ago, Reynolds Woodcock said:

You are wrong, as has been explained many times. Bama beating Georgia absolutely helps us, although by no means guarantees we get in. It strengthens our win compared to Oregon’s win over Washington (whereas if Bama loses, Oregon can claim both a better win and a better loss compared to us). If Bama, Texas, Oregon and FSU all win, I’m betting Texas gets in. Whether that’s over Oregon or Bama, I’m not sure. If Georgia, FSU and Oregon win, we are toast.

Oregon can still claim a better win because of recency to the win. Beating an undefeated in the final game with a playoff spot on the line while avenging your lone loss will be viewed as a greater win that Texas beating Bama in week 2 combined with beating 3 loss oSu. You will get the "Bama was a different team when Texas beat them". It will happen. It's not right but that's what will happen. The Pac 12, probably because of this being its final year is getting a lot more credibility as a conference than the Big 12. I simply do not believe Texas will get in if Bama and Oregon both beat undefeated teams. I guess we'll see. 

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LateAughtsHorn

LateAughtsHorn 588

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2 minutes ago, Valmy77 said:

There are Cal fans?

Ok. I was talking about how much it sucked at the time.

Sure once we beat Michigan we proved ourselves. But the fact a 11-1 had to prove it wasn't shitty was a little ridiculous.

I do remember a lot of west coast types whining about their precious Big 10 vs Pac 10 Rose Bowl being ruined. I wonder how they feel about realignment. 

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hook me

hook me 2080

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40 minutes ago, Js1 said:

I mean, I would have big issues with 12-1 Texas going over 13-0 FSU. You beat everyone on your schedule in a P5 conference and won your champ game, you’re in. 

Injuries happen and they suck. But if FSU beat 2 P5 teams with their backup, they should be in 

I would normally agree with this, but since it's UT we're talking about being left out, I disagree completely.

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Dahobbs

Dahobbs 17447

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7 minutes ago, JBJ said:

Milroe has faded hard against every single decent defense he's faced.  Bama also has not been tested in the air much since Texas.  They didn't do well.

Milroe has been good in every game when accounting for competition. Sure, if you only look at passer rating and ignore his contribution on the ground, you can claim he has done poorly. But even then, he hasn't done that bad. Once you account for all the pressure he puts on the ground (and makes up for Alabama's poor offensive line), grading as anything but good for Alabama becomes asinine .  I think Milroe and defense are the strength of the Alabama team. 

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Frank Drebin

Frank Drebin 5621

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2 minutes ago, ChickenNuggets said:

BCS rankings: Why AP Top 25 Poll withdrew in 2004 - Sports Illustrated

This article contradicts your memory. 

 

"... Then came the 2004 season, which was marked by two controversies that left Cal and Auburn feeling jilted and put the polls that determined their fate in a burdensome position.

Thanks to a late push from voters in the AP and coaches polls resulted in the Texas jumped Cal for the No. 4 spot in the BCS rankings, a week after both teams had finished their regular seasons, which put the Longhorns in position for selection to the Rose Bowl. Three AP voters in Texas flipped their votes in favor of UT following a soapbox speech from coach Mack Brown."

Someone needs to pull up SynTex's post from Hornfans.  Because Sports Illustrated is wrong. We lost votes the week Mack Brown politicked.  The next week when Cal struggled against Southern Mississippi, we picked some votes back up.  But even some of those were people correcting bullshit like a few pollsters who had us 8 or behind Utah.  Not sure many, if at all, were at the expense of switching us with Cal.

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Reynolds Woodcock

Reynolds Woodcock 4669

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2 minutes ago, mdmost said:

Oregon can still claim a better win because of recency to the win. Beating an undefeated in the final game with a playoff spot on the line while avenging your lone loss will be viewed as a greater win that Texas beating Bama in week 2 combined with beating 3 loss oSu. You will get the "Bama was a different team when Texas beat them". It will happen. It's not right but that's what will happen. The Pac 12, probably because of this being its final year is getting a lot more credibility as a conference than the Big 12. I simply do not believe Texas will get in if Bama and Oregon both beat undefeated teams. I guess we'll see. 

Maybe, but it at least puts us in play. If Georgia wins, that spot is 100% taken and we almost certainly lose out to Oregon. Sadly, I don’t think we’ll find out because I suspect Georgia will win and cover.

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AnotherLawyer

AnotherLawyer 383

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5 minutes ago, ChickenNuggets said:

BCS rankings: Why AP Top 25 Poll withdrew in 2004 - Sports Illustrated

This article contradicts your memory. 

 

"... Then came the 2004 season, which was marked by two controversies that left Cal and Auburn feeling jilted and put the polls that determined their fate in a burdensome position.

Thanks to a late push from voters in the AP and coaches polls resulted in the Texas jumped Cal for the No. 4 spot in the BCS rankings, a week after both teams had finished their regular seasons, which put the Longhorns in position for selection to the Rose Bowl. Three AP voters in Texas flipped their votes in favor of UT following a soapbox speech from coach Mack Brown."

And that article is 10000% fucking wrong. Syntex did an analysis definitively proving that narrative was false.

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bigcigar

bigcigar 1161

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26 minutes ago, Valmy77 said:

Yeah we need FSU to lose to Louisville or some truly bizarre shit to happen.

Fortunately this is the last time we have to endure this bullshit as a one loss team. I know it has been a while since 2008 and 2004 but the garbage our 1 loss teams have had to endure is just ridiculous. So tired of it. It would be cool for things to work out just once.

This is where I’m at. We’re playing a championship game against a team that got wrecked by Georgia Southern and UCF. The league was absolute shit this year, and we had too many close games. I think those are factors the committee with cite when they screw us over.

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Frank Drebin

Frank Drebin 5621

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1 minute ago, Dahobbs said:

Milroe has been good in every game when accounting for competition. Sure, if you only look at passer rating and ignore his contribution on the ground, you can claim he has done poorly. But even then, he hasn't done that bad. Once you account for all the pressure he puts on the ground (and makes up for Alabama's poor offensive line), grading as anything but good for Alabama becomes asinine .  I think Milroe and defense are the strength of the Alabama team. 

Milroe has been good pretty much all year.  It's not like he sucked when they played us.  He made several plays against us under pressure that were basically the only reason Alabama scored touchdowns against us.  This narrative that Milroe was bad early in the year and that's why Texas won but he has improved and now Bama is clearly better than Texas due to such improvement is bullshit.

Milroe Pass Rating by game:

MTSU -- 217.8

Texas -- 140.8

Ole Miss -- 177.1

Miss State -- 198.1

A&M -- 169.3

Arkansas -- 174.2

Tennessee -- 176.6

LSU -- 145.2

Kentucky -- 193.4

Chattanooga -- 246.6

UGA -- 184.4

He has been remarkably consistent all year long as a passer, despite what moutbreather SEC fan claims.

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Valmy77

Valmy77 13094

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1 minute ago, Reynolds Woodcock said:

Maybe, but it at least puts us in play. If Georgia wins, that spot is 100% taken and we almost certainly lose out to Oregon. Sadly, I don’t think we’ll find out because I suspect Georgia will win and cover.

Oregon wins, Bama wins, Iowa wins, Louisville wins. Any one of those things MIGHT get us in, though FSU losing almost definitely will.

But going by how these things have gone this year none lf those will happen and we will be #5.

But at least we would finally have a conference championship and a bright future ahead of us.

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Smax

Smax 3800

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This is where I’m at. We’re playing a championship game against a team that got wrecked by Georgia Southern and UCF. The league was absolute shit this year, and we had too many close games. I think those are factors the committee with cite when they screw us over.
Is it screwing us over if it's true?
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Dahobbs

Dahobbs 17447

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The analysis is simple: root for Alabama, Oregon, Iowa, and Louisville. Assuming Texas wins: 

1. Louisville wins, we in;

2. Iowa wins, we in and Big 10 left out; (not going to happen unfortunately)

3. Oregon and Bama win; becomes a 3 team beauty contest that we have some pretty compelling arguments on, 2 of the 3 get in. I think Texas and Bama has a higher chance than the other configurations in this scenario, but only marginally so.  

Absent chaos, a non-champ isn't getting in. And there aren't going to be 2 teams from the same conference, especially since all the teams up for that will have already played each other and sorted out who deserves to go.  

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blutow

blutow 222

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1 minute ago, Frank Drebin said:

The winner of Oregon-UW gets in.  Though I would prefer Oregon wins.

We get in if we win and either Louisville, Iowa, or Bama wins.  Unless Bama destroys UGA.

I still think we have a small shot even if Oregon wins, probably depends on how each of us look in CCG

Louisville or Iowa wins - 95%+ Texas is in with a win

Bama Wins - ~70% Texas is in (again depends on how those games go down)

Oregon Wins - ~20% Texas is in (another eye test)

 

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Paul Wesley

Paul Wesley 3277

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7 minutes ago, AnotherLawyer said:

And that article is 10000% fucking wrong. Syntex did an analysis definitively proving that narrative was false.

Everything about that article is wrong.

First of all, reporters ASKED Mack Brown about bowl selections, and he said, "This team deserves to be in the BCS."  I'm pretty sure that's what he said verbatim.  That's hardly "begging and pleading."  That prompted a response from Aaron Rodgers about how "we're too classy to say anything like that."  

More than that, Texas went DOWN in the rankings after Mack made that statement. 

The NEXT week, Cal played a make-up game (early non-con game cancelled because of hurricane threat) with Southern Miss, who was a sub-.500 team, and that game went deep into the 4th quarter before Cal won it.  **THEN** Cal lost some points in the polls, allowing Texas to take the Rose Bowl spot in the BCS formula.  

Recall also that the PAC champion was USC, and they skipped the Rose Bowl to play in the national championship, and for a while, it looked like Cal was going to get that spot, and the media was WILD about perennial loser Cal getting a spot in the Rose Bowl.  And then not only did that get lost, but the spot was taken by a Texas team that nobody outside this state roots for.

That SI article is bullshit.  

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The Dog

The Dog 43805

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Posted (edited)
16 minutes ago, utexas8 said:

I know we’ve blown leads and won close.

TCU Kstate Houston.

Who else in the top 4 has had close games to not good teams? I know fsu had some so has Washington.

Pretty much everyone has warts.

Alabama at home against Arkansas and everyone remembers the USF game. 

Washington needed a pick six to beat Arizona State at home and struggled with Stanford.

Oregon needed a big comeback to beat Texas Tech (but they are actually decent)

Michigan's only close game other than Ohio State was Maryland.

Georgia struggled at Auburn but otherwise blew out everyone.

 

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ryskey

ryskey 447

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9 minutes ago, Frank Drebin said:

Milroe has been good pretty much all year.  It's not like he sucked when they played us.  He made several plays against us under pressure that were basically the only reason Alabama scored touchdowns against us.  This narrative that Milroe was bad early in the year and that's why Texas won but he has improved and now Bama is clearly better than Texas due to such improvement is bullshit.

Milroe Pass Rating by game:

MTSU -- 217.8

Texas -- 140.8

Ole Miss -- 177.1

Miss State -- 198.1

A&M -- 169.3

Arkansas -- 174.2

Tennessee -- 176.6

LSU -- 145.2

Kentucky -- 193.4

Chattanooga -- 246.6

UGA -- 184.4

He has been remarkably consistent all year long as a passer, despite what moutbreather SEC fan claims.

Yes, and his QBR, which includes rushing stats, is even more consistent (he went off against LSU).

Using ESPN's Defensive Efficiency Rankings, Milroe's QBR against:

Top quartile defenses (UT, TAMU, Auburn, Tenn, Ole Miss) = 72.5, which is very good considering the level of competition, and only 2 points lower than Ewers' total QBR on the season.  Milroe's worst QBR of 65.5 came against Texas, which not coincidentally has the best defense he's faced all season.  65.5 is solid.

Defenses ranked 25th thru 50th percentiles (Kentucky, Miss St, Ark) = 85.5

Bottom half (MTSU, LSU, Chattanooga) = 93.0

To put that in context, in the game MIlroe was benched, Alabama QBs combined for QBR around 13, which is horrendous.  USF has the 118th ranked defensive efficiency per ESPN.

He's a good QB who was slightly less good against the best defenses he faced.

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