THE College Football Playoff Rankings Thread [MICH,WASH,TEX,ALA]

[The_Great_Hornsby 3329]

Bama beats Georgia, Louisville beats FSU, all other favored teams win:
1. Michigan - 99%
2. Oregon - 99%
3. Texas - 88%
4. Bama - 84%
5. Ohio State

Bama beats Georgia, all other favored teams win:
1. Michigan - 99%
2. FSU - 98%
3. Oregon - 94%
4. Texas - 57%
5. Bama - 43%

https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story/_/page/cfbplayoffpredictor/cfb-playoff-predictor

ESPN has Texas favored to make the playoffs over Bama and leave the SEC on the outside looking in. 

[blutow 222]

9 minutes ago, GreenspointTexas said:

So Barrie is assuming FSU loses

There has been a good bit of discussion in the media about the possibility of a 13-0 FSU being left out based on the QB injury.  I'm not saying it should happen or that it's likely, but Barrie isn't the only one saying FSU should be jumped by a stronger 1 loss team.  

[Dahobbs 17447]

17 minutes ago, utexas8 said:

I know we’ve blown leads and won close.

TCU Kstate Houston.

Who else in the top 4 has had close games to not good teams? I know fsu had some so has Washington.

All of them. Michigan has been the most dominant. 

• Georgia - 1 score game against Auburn (talk about a weird team); pulled away late versus Mizzou, Georgia Tech,  and South Carolina, but still close games.  
• Michigan - 1 score game against Maryland; otherwise only close games were against "good teams" Ohio State and Penn State. 
• FSU - struggles galore, 1 score against Miami, pulled away late against Florida, 1 score against Clemson, 2 points over BC, 1 score versus Duke;
• Washington - 1 score versus Oregon State, Washington State, Utah, Stanford, and Arizona; pulled away late versus Stanford and USC

Edited November 27, 2023 by Dahobbs

[jimmyjazz 45558]

29 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Texas still has the best win of the regular season of any team, period, and that’s what you can control. 

Not by the AP poll (which is a questionable metric, to be sure).  Still, if we consider their rankings, we'd have the 4th best win to date:

UW over UO 

UM over tOSU 

OU over UT 

UT over 'bama

[orange dream 1241]

 

2 minutes ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

Bama beats Georgia, all other favored teams win:
1. Michigan - 99%
2. FSU - 98%
3. Oregon - 94%
4. Texas - 57%
5. Bama - 43%

https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story/_/page/cfbplayoffpredictor/cfb-playoff-predictor

ESPN has Texas favored to make the playoffs over Bama and leave the SEC on the outside looking in. 

I'll be shocked if SECSECSEC gets shut out of the playoff regardless of what else happens.

IMO, there are 3 spots taken (Michigan, SEC and PAC) and 1 "open" (FSU, if they win, or TX)

[The_Great_Hornsby 3329]

1 minute ago, orange dream said:

 

I'll be shocked if SECSECSEC gets shut out of the playoff regardless of what else happens.

IMO, there are 3 spots taken (Michigan, SEC and PAC) and 1 "open" (FSU, if they win, or TX)

Just an FYI, literally all of the Bama board is resigned to the fact that they will not get in over Texas because they lost head to head. So I definitely think the SEC can and will get shut out. If Texas looks good in their win against OSU and it comes down to Bama vs Texas, we are going over them. Because, you know, that game was played on the field and we won. 

[blutow 222]

7 minutes ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

Bama beats Georgia, Louisville beats FSU, all other favored teams win:
1. Michigan - 99%
2. Oregon - 99%
3. Texas - 88%
4. Bama - 84%
5. Ohio State

Bama beats Georgia, all other favored teams win:
1. Michigan - 99%
2. FSU - 98%
3. Oregon - 94%
4. Texas - 57%
5. Bama - 43%

https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story/_/page/cfbplayoffpredictor/cfb-playoff-predictor

ESPN has Texas favored to make the playoffs over Bama and leave the SEC on the outside looking in. 

That all looks way too reasonable to have been produced by ESPN.  Maybe we don't have a chance....    The only thing I'd question with those numbers is that Bama and Texas are only at 84/88% with a Bama win and Louisville win.  I can't see any way either would be left out in that situation.  Do they really think there is a chance tOSU could jump back in?  

[The_Great_Hornsby 3329]

https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story/_/page/cfbplayoffpredictor/cfb-playoff-predictor

 

Mix and match your picks. 

Texas gets in 3 different ways with this tool:

FSU loses- We in

Iowa loses- We in

Georgia loses- We in (This one has the lowest percentage of certainty)

[Texas Wahoo 3383]

13 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Not by the AP poll (which is a questionable metric, to be sure).  Still, if we consider their rankings, we'd have the 4th best win to date:

UW over UO 

UM over tOSU 

OU over UT 

UT over 'bama

Note that Texas' win over Bama was the only one on the road and also the only one by double digits.

Washington beat Oregon at home by 3

Michigan beat tOSU at home by 6

OU beat Texas by 4 at a neutral site.

[jimmyjazz 45558]

Just now, Texas Wahoo said:

Note that Texas' win over Bama was the only one on the road and also the only one by double digits.

Washington beat Oregon at home by 3

Michigan beat tOSU at home by 6

OU beat Texas by 4 at a neutral site.

No doubt.  I don't expect the average fan (or even the average committee member) to put that much critical thought into it, especially with this magical/mythological "Alabama resurgence since the early season".

[Pound Town 21]

51 minutes ago, Frank Drebin said:

The winner of Oregon-UW gets in.  Though I would prefer Oregon wins.

We get in if we win and either Louisville, Iowa, or Bama wins.  Unless Bama destroys UGA.

At this point, I'd rather UW just win out.  Do not want the taste left in my mouth of 1 loss Oregon going in ahead of us.

[orange dream 1241]

31 minutes ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

Just an FYI, literally all of the Bama board is resigned to the fact that they will not get in over Texas because they lost head to head. So I definitely think the SEC can and will get shut out. If Texas looks good in their win against OSU and it comes down to Bama vs Texas, we are going over them. Because, you know, that game was played on the field and we won. 

I was at the game in Tuscaloosa. It was glorious.  I was also at the Cotton Bowl on October 11, 2008. It was also glorious.  Unfortunately, the team we beat that day took our spot in the National Championship game that year.

If the SEC is shut out of the playoff this year it will be the first time in the CFP era that the SEC is excluded, and even going back to the BCS, era the first time since 2005 that an SEC team didn't get the nod in the beauty contest.  Not saying it's right, but it is the way it is.  I hope the trend breaks in our favor if necessary, but not counting on it.

Having said all that, I'm standing behind the Lousville cheerleaders (especially one) this week...

Edited November 27, 2023 by orange dream

[Paul Wesley 3277]

19 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

No doubt.  I don't expect the average fan (or even the average committee member) to put that much critical thought into it, especially with this magical/mythological "Alabama resurgence since the early season".

Somehow Texas seems to be on the wrong side of that mythical "playing better than anyone" bullshit.  In 2008, OU was the **consensus**, no-doubt-about-it best team in the country, and Texas was tougher, better, and mentally stronger, and won the game going away (OU spent most of their second half drives punting, fake punting, and punter flopping).  

And then 2 months later, the media went right back to "OU is just playing better than anyone right now" while snubbing the Texas team that - by any objective metrics - should have been playing for the MNC.

 

Edited November 27, 2023 by Paul Wesley

[yoladu 4067]

55 minutes ago, Frank Drebin said:

The winner of Oregon-UW gets in.  Though I would prefer Oregon wins.

We get in if we win and either Louisville, Iowa, or Bama wins.  Unless Bama destroys UGA.

Assuming Pac12 Champ & FSU and Michigan win, you saying Texas grabs the 4th spot, if Bama wins? No SEC in the Playoffs? hmmm.

The SEC Champ IS making the playoffs.

[NoctambulantBrobdingnagian 530]

1 hour ago, ChickenNuggets said:

what the fuck is a 'people poll"?

[D3zii 3642]

 

so tell me again Oregon is in front of Texas and Alabama because of the “eye test” ?? Well if that’s the case you have to place Texas in front of them based off the last weeks game correct?? 
 

cause going off resume there is no way you place Oregon in front of Texas and there best win is Oregon State and before that it was Texas Tech who they had to come back from and Texas just beat by 50. 
 

someone make it make sense 

[The Dog 43805]

Stop this "SEC is guaranteed a spot no matter what" shit. Makes y'all sound like aggy.

[Red Five 40665]

1 minute ago, yoladu said:

Assuming Pac12 Champ & FSU and Michigan win, you saying Texas grabs the 4th spot, if Bama wins? No SEC in the Playoffs? hmmm.

The SEC Champ IS making the playoffs.

Again, we need to stop doing this. There are absolutely scenarios where the SEC should get left out. 

[yoladu 4067]

1 minute ago, Red Five said:

Again, we need to stop doing this. There are absolutely scenarios where the SEC should get left out. 

I am sorry. it just seem unfathomable.

[ChickenNuggets 1611]

2 minutes ago, D3zii said:

 

so tell me again Oregon is in front of Texas and Alabama because of the “eye test” ?? Well if that’s the case you have to place Texas in front of them based off the last weeks game correct?? 
 

cause going off resume there is no way you place Oregon in front of Texas and there best win is Oregon State and before that it was Texas Tech who they had to come back from and Texas just beat by 50. 
 

someone make it make sense 

not that it makes a difference but AL was ranked #3 at the time. 

[ChickenNuggets 1611]

3 minutes ago, Red Five said:

Again, we need to stop doing this. There are absolutely scenarios where the SEC should get left out. 

I think we all agree that they should get left out under certain scenarios. I think the argument is over the psyche of the committee and whether they will be left out.

Edited November 27, 2023 by ChickenNuggets

[Texas Wahoo 3383]

3 minutes ago, Red Five said:

Again, we need to stop doing this. There are absolutely scenarios where the SEC should get left out. 

The SEC getting "left out" is kind of funny if Texas makes it, given that we're basically in the SEC as soon as the season is over.

[The_Great_Hornsby 3329]

14 minutes ago, orange dream said:

I was at the game in Tuscaloosa. It was glorious.  I was also at the Cotton Bowl on October 11, 2008. It was also glorious.  Unfortunately, the team we beat that day took our spot in the National Championship game that year.

If the SEC is shut out of the playoff this year it will be the first time in the CFP era that the SEC is excluded, and even going back to the BCS, era the first time since 2005 that an SEC team didn't get the nod in the beauty contest.  Not saying it's right, but it is the way it is.  I hope the trend breaks in our favor if necessary, but not counting on it.

Having said all that, I'm standing behind the Lousville cheerleaders (especially one) this week...

The difference was that we wernt only tied with OU, but also Tech. Different situation than now. Although I still think Texas 08 got shafted and was the best team in the country. 

[Paul Wesley 3277]

1 minute ago, Texas Wahoo said:

The SEC getting "left out" is kind of funny if Texas makes it, given that we're basically in the SEC as soon as the season is over.

Ha ha.  Maybe that's the narrative that we should be selling, right?  SEC Texas should get in over SEC Alabama?

[Red Five 40665]

2 minutes ago, Texas Wahoo said:

The SEC getting "left out" is kind of funny if Texas makes it, given that we're basically in the SEC as soon as the season is over.

We also did something no SEC team has done since Saban was hired in 2007, so the "SEC must get in" stuff really ruffles my feathers. Sorry for the language. 

[DigglerontheHoof 21063]

1 hour ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

I think that is his current top 6

Yeah, I saw the part of his podcast where he said FSU w/out Travis is not in the T4.  

[Pound Town 21]

1 hour ago, Texas Wahoo said:

None of these talking heads matter.  Now that Oregon and Washington have won out, we are screwed unless Fla St or Mich or Georgia lose.  We were screwed the second Oregon was placed above us as the best one loss team.  

[Codaxx 5602]

7 minutes ago, D3zii said:

 

so tell me again Oregon is in front of Texas and Alabama because of the “eye test” ?? Well if that’s the case you have to place Texas in front of them based off the last weeks game correct?? 
 

cause going off resume there is no way you place Oregon in front of Texas and there best win is Oregon State and before that it was Texas Tech who they had to come back from and Texas just beat by 50. 
 

someone make it make sense 

Committee is basing it on margin of victory, without adjusting for strength of schedule

Oregon #2 in nation at 25.3

Texas #11 at 17.8

Bama #15 @ 14.4 

https://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/stat/average-scoring-margin

I am not saying it is correct, but that seems to be their basis. Even if MOV is not supposed to be a criteria of the committee. 

[Pig Bellmont 8691]

10 minutes ago, D3zii said:

 

so tell me again Oregon is in front of Texas and Alabama because of the “eye test” ?? Well if that’s the case you have to place Texas in front of them based off the last weeks game correct?? 
 

cause going off resume there is no way you place Oregon in front of Texas and there best win is Oregon State and before that it was Texas Tech who they had to come back from and Texas just beat by 50. 
 

someone make it make sense 

I agree with your point, but the graphic would support us better if it showed strength of schedule. Also FCS wins shouldn’t count 

[Pound Town 21]

11 minutes ago, D3zii said:

 

so tell me again Oregon is in front of Texas and Alabama because of the “eye test” ?? Well if that’s the case you have to place Texas in front of them based off the last weeks game correct?? 
 

cause going off resume there is no way you place Oregon in front of Texas and there best win is Oregon State and before that it was Texas Tech who they had to come back from and Texas just beat by 50. 
 

someone make it make sense 

The time to ask these questions was weeks ago when the committee placed us behind Oregon.  The writing was on the wall then.  It's moot now.

[bigcigar 1161]

1 hour ago, Smax said:

1 hour ago, bigcigar said:

This is where I’m at. We’re playing a championship game against a team that got wrecked by Georgia Southern and UCF. The league was absolute shit this year, and we had too many close games. I think those are factors the committee with cite when they screw us over.

Is it screwing us over if it's true?

No bias here at all - the strongest argument is that Texas is a top 4 team. The facts presented used to say not top 4 might be true, but it doesn’t make it the best argument. 

[Red Five 40665]

1 minute ago, Pound Town said:

The time to ask these questions was weeks ago when the committee placed us behind Oregon.  The writing was on the wall then.  It's moot now.

Unlikely, but not moo. Our best chance there would be if Bama beats Georgia, and they have to choose two of Oregon, Texas, and Bama. 

[Wally Fairway 5523]

13 minutes ago, D3zii said:

 

so tell me again Oregon is in front of Texas and Alabama because of the “eye test” ?? Well if that’s the case you have to place Texas in front of them based off the last weeks game correct?? 
 

cause going off resume there is no way you place Oregon in front of Texas and there best win is Oregon State and before that it was Texas Tech who they had to come back from and Texas just beat by 50. 
 

someone make it make sense 

2 minutes ago, Pig Bellmont said:

I agree with your point, but the graphic would support us better if it showed strength of schedule. Also FCS wins shouldn’t count 

and to add to Pig's point home losses should matter

 

[Pound Town 21]

1 minute ago, Red Five said:

Unlikely, but not moo. Our best chance there would be if Bama beats Georgia, and they have to choose two of Oregon, Texas, and Bama. 

Simple fix is just to continue to pick Oregon.  You won't have to answer the question of the Texas head to head win.  You guys are expecting way too much out of these morons.  

Edited November 27, 2023 by Pound Town

[Thetexashammer 1062]

1 hour ago, The Dog said:

Pretty much everyone has warts.

Genital warts?

[Dahobbs 17447]

19 minutes ago, Pound Town said:

At this point, I'd rather UW just win out.  Do not want the taste left in my mouth of 1 loss Oregon going in ahead of us.

UW win is bad for us. We should be rooting for Alabama (higher margin is better) and Oregon winning (by a little). If both win, we have a decent shot as there will be two spots available. I think the committee would be loathe to leave out the SEC champ, and ultimately that plays in our favor as the only team to beat said champ. If only one of Oregon or Alabama wins, I think we are almost certainly out (and Michigan and FSU win). 

If the winners are:

1. FSU, Washington, Bama, Michigan, and Texas - the playoffs are FSU, Washington, Bama and Michigan (Undefeated Washington gets in and Bama gets in over us on the strength of what have you done for me lately)

2. FSU, Oregon, Georgia, Michigan, and Texas - Playoffs = FSU, Oregon, Georgia, and Michigan (our best win loses and Oregon gets a great win over Washington)

3. FSU, Oregon, Bama, Michigan, and Texas - Playoffs = FSU, Michigan, Bama, and Texas. (Bama gets in for defeating reigning champs, we get in over Oregon for having defeated the team that beat the reigning champs)

Rooting for Washington 100% locks out a spot that we could take. Rooting for Georgia 100% locks out a spot (although probably not one we can take) AND diminishes our best win if it comes down to a beauty contest. 

[Texas Wahoo 3383]

Good news guys!

 

 

[AnotherLawyer 383]

2 minutes ago, Thetexashammer said:

Genital warts?

That's mostly just tceh.

[The_Great_Hornsby 3329]

2 minutes ago, Texas Wahoo said:

Good news guys!

 

 

Jewish Wang is Geoff Ketchum confirmed lol

[AnotherLawyer 383]

3 minutes ago, Texas Wahoo said:

Good news guys!

 

 

Now if only CTJ would make that prediction...

[Pound Town 21]

2 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

UW win is bad for us. We should be rooting for Alabama (higher margin is better) and Oregon winning (by a little). If both win, we have a decent shot as there will be two spots available. I think the committee would be loathe to leave out the SEC champ, and ultimately that plays in our favor as the only team to beat said champ. If only one of Oregon or Alabama wins, I think we are almost certainly out (and Michigan and FSU win). 

If the winners are:

1. FSU, Washington, Bama, Michigan, and Texas - the playoffs are FSU, Washington, Bama and Michigan (Undefeated Washington gets in and Bama gets in over us on the strength of what have you done for me lately)

2. FSU, Oregon, Georgia, Michigan, and Texas - Playoffs = FSU, Oregon, Georgia, and Michigan (our best win loses and Oregon gets a great win over Washington)

3. FSU, Oregon, Bama, Michigan, and Texas - Playoffs = FSU, Michigan, Bama, and Texas. (Bama gets in for defeating reigning champs, we get in over Oregon for having defeated the team that beat the reigning champs)

Rooting for Washington 100% locks out a spot that we could take. Rooting for Georgia 100% locks out a spot (although probably not one we can take) AND diminishes our best win if it comes down to a beauty contest. 

I am not sure how you can argue that Oregon winning would "open up a spot."  It is very clear that one of the spots at this point is reserved for the Pac 12 champ.

Obviously, we need to root for Bama, Iowa and ESPECIALLY LVille.  If LVille wins, we are in.

[The_Great_Hornsby 3329]

4 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

UW win is bad for us. We should be rooting for Alabama (higher margin is better) and Oregon winning (by a little). If both win, we have a decent shot as there will be two spots available. I think the committee would be loathe to leave out the SEC champ, and ultimately that plays in our favor as the only team to beat said champ. If only one of Oregon or Alabama wins, I think we are almost certainly out (and Michigan and FSU win). 

If the winners are:

1. FSU, Washington, Bama, Michigan, and Texas - the playoffs are FSU, Washington, Bama and Michigan (Undefeated Washington gets in and Bama gets in over us on the strength of what have you done for me lately)

2. FSU, Oregon, Georgia, Michigan, and Texas - Playoffs = FSU, Oregon, Georgia, and Michigan (our best win loses and Oregon gets a great win over Washington)

3. FSU, Oregon, Bama, Michigan, and Texas - Playoffs = FSU, Michigan, Bama, and Texas. (Bama gets in for defeating reigning champs, we get in over Oregon for having defeated the team that beat the reigning champs)

Rooting for Washington 100% locks out a spot that we could take. Rooting for Georgia 100% locks out a spot (although probably not one we can take) AND diminishes our best win if it comes down to a beauty contest. 

I disagree with this premise. I think Texas would go unless Bama boatraces Georgia (win by 14 or more) and we look like shit against OSU (winning by 10 or less). 

[Dahobbs 17447]

Just now, Pound Town said:

I am not sure how you can argue that Oregon winning would "open up a spot."  It is very clear that one of the spots at this point is reserved for the Pac 12 champ.

Bolded is wrong. That's how. Current rankings don't matter because championship games haven't been played. If Bama, Oregon, and Texas win (and no other upsets), Oregon has a very good chance at being  on the outside looking in unless it absolute crushes Washington. 

[Dahobbs 17447]

1 minute ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

I disagree with this premise. I think Texas would go unless Bama boatraces Georgia (win by 14 or more) and we look like shit against OSU (winning by 10 or less). 

There is small chance of that happening. But I think it is exceedingly unlikely. 

[yoladu 4067]

17 minutes ago, Red Five said:

Unlikely, but not moo. Our best chance there would be if Bama beats Georgia, and they have to choose two of Oregon, Texas, and Bama. 

I dont know, just reading the tea leaves, the perceived weakness of the Big12 will have us looking on the outside.

Feels like if there are three 1 loss Conference Champs and 2 playoff spots available, the PAC and SEC get em (especially with Oregon and Alabama just beating undefeated top 5 teams). Just what i think.

yeah, people will say, now can that be, Alabama lost to Texas.. but they won't have the stomach to leave the SEC out.

Edited November 27, 2023 by yoladu

[Helobious 9481]

FSU is such fucking trash. I know it’s not how it’ll work but win or lose they don’t deserve a spot. 

[Codaxx 5602]

6 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

UW win is bad for us. We should be rooting for Alabama (higher margin is better) and Oregon winning (by a little). If both win, we have a decent shot as there will be two spots available. I think the committee would be loathe to leave out the SEC champ, and ultimately that plays in our favor as the only team to beat said champ. If only one of Oregon or Alabama wins, I think we are almost certainly out (and Michigan and FSU win). 

If the winners are:

1. FSU, Washington, Bama, Michigan, and Texas - the playoffs are FSU, Washington, Bama and Michigan (Undefeated Washington gets in and Bama gets in over us on the strength of what have you done for me lately)

2. FSU, Oregon, Georgia, Michigan, and Texas - Playoffs = FSU, Oregon, Georgia, and Michigan (our best win loses and Oregon gets a great win over Washington)

3. FSU, Oregon, Bama, Michigan, and Texas - Playoffs = FSU, Michigan, Bama, and Texas. (Bama gets in for defeating reigning champs, we get in over Oregon for having defeated the team that beat the reigning champs)

Rooting for Washington 100% locks out a spot that we could take. Rooting for Georgia 100% locks out a spot (although probably not one we can take) AND diminishes our best win if it comes down to a beauty contest. 

I am not sure on the #1.. Bama/Texas is an interesting argument. I dont think you can assume Bama jumps Texas, given the double digit win on the road for Texas. Texas has 1 loss, so the more teams with 1 loss the better for Texas. Root for chaos, but especially Louisville and Bama. 

[Helobious 9481]

Also next weekend is going to kick ass. Anyone loses and they’re likely out. It’s like a bonus playoff round

Edited November 27, 2023 by Helobious

[Red Five 40665]

9 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

1. FSU, Washington, Bama, Michigan, and Texas - the playoffs are FSU, Washington, Bama and Michigan (Undefeated Washington gets in and Bama gets in over us on the strength of what have you done for me lately)

This is where I burn down all of North America.

"Oh we need to break a tie between these two teams.... what's that? They played in Tuscaloosa and Texas won by 10? Oh well that happened so long ago who even remembers.... "

[Dahobbs 17447]

4 minutes ago, Pound Town said:

Obviously, we need to root for Bama, Iowa and ESPECIALLY LVille.  If LVille wins, we are in.

Rooting for Bama does almost nothing for us if Washington, Michigan, and FSU win. Holding out hope that we'll get placed over Bama in that scenario is setting yourself up for disappointment. That is an extremely low likely scenario. You need to root for Oregon as well.