THE College Football Playoff Rankings Thread [MICH,WASH,TEX,ALA]

[Red Five 40664]

2 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

Rooting for Bama does almost nothing for us if Washington, Michigan, and FSU win. Holding out hope that we'll get placed over Bama in that scenario is setting yourself up for disappointment. That is an extremely low likely scenario.

But if Georgia wins in that scenario then that's four undefeated teams and we're out for sure. So you're talking about a coin flip probably vs 0%. I'll take the coin flip. 

[Pound Town 21]

2 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

Rooting for Bama does almost nothing for us if Washington, Michigan, and FSU win. Holding out hope that we'll get placed over Bama in that scenario is setting yourself up for disappointment. That is an extremely low likely scenario. You need to root for Oregon as well.   

I don't think you are listening to yourself.

If Oregon wins the Pac 12, you would have to believe the committee would DEVALUE Oregon's win against a Top 5 team and let Texas pass them with a lesser win or Bama vault both of them with a win over Georgia.  The committee has boxed itself in, but it is not plausible for Texas and Bama to vault Oregon because they are tied at the hip.  And Oregon has their best win in front of them.

[Dahobbs 17447]

Just now, Red Five said:

But if Georgia wins in that scenario then that's four undefeated teams and we're out for sure. So you're talking about a coin flip probably vs 0%. I'll take the coin flip. 

I agree with the first part. But it isn't a coin flip. It's more like a roll of 20 sided die and we need hit a 20 to win. Maybe if Alabama wins and like Milroe gets hurts at the very end and will not be able to play in the playoffs. 

[Codaxx 5602]

13 minutes ago, Pound Town said:

I am not sure how you can argue that Oregon winning would "open up a spot."  It is very clear that one of the spots at this point is reserved for the Pac 12 champ.

Obviously, we need to root for Bama, Iowa and ESPECIALLY LVille.  If LVille wins, we are in.

I am not sure on this. Just assume Michigan, FSU, Oregon, Texas, and Bama win. 

Michigan is in.. 

FSU is in.. 

Now the committee has to pick 2 of the 3. Texas has the head to head over Bame. I believe the SOS argument argument over both. They have 3 choices

1. They send the message that the regular season does not matter and puts Bama in over Texas, which will bring in all kinds of heat. SOS does not matter and they put in Oregon

2. They leave the SEC out and the world goes nuts. SOS does not matter as Oregon in over Bama

3. They say we looked at the resumes. Bama and Texas have a stronger SOS and resume, than Oregon. They would also have the better win

 

Edited November 27, 2023 by Codaxx

[Dahobbs 17447]

Just now, Pound Town said:

I don't think you are listening to yourself.

If Oregon wins the Pac 12, you would have to believe the committee would DEVALUE Oregon's win against a Top 5 team and let Texas pass them with a lesser win or Bama vault both of them with a win over Georgia.  The committee has boxed itself in, but it is not plausible for Texas and Bama to vault Oregon because they are tied at the hip.  And Oregon has their best win in front of them.

If Bama beats Georgia, it will no longer be a "lesser win". Beating Bama at Bama by two scores will be the undisputed, objectively and subjectively, best win in all of college football. The rankings will reflect that. The only argument Oregon will have is that losing to Washington is better than losing to OU. But the strength of the SEC mindshare will drag Alabama and by extension Texas to take the final two spots. 

[Dahobbs 17447]

3 minutes ago, Codaxx said:

I am not sure on this. Just assume Michigan, FSU, Oregon, Texas, and Bama win. 

Michigan is in.. 

FSU is in.. 

Now the committee has to pick 2 of the 3. Texas has the head to head over Bame. I believe the SOS argument argument over both. They have 3 choices

1. They send the message that the regular season does not matter and puts Bama in over Texas, which will bring in all kinds of heat. SOS does not matter and they put in Oregon

2. They leave the SEC out and the world goes nuts. SOS does not matter as Oregon in over Bama

3. They say we looked at the resumes. Bama and Texas have a stronger SOS and resume, than Oregon. They would also have the better win

 

This is the way. It is absolutely our best path (and really, the only real viable one) should FSU and Michigan win. 

[Red Five 40664]

6 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

I agree with the first part. But it isn't a coin flip. It's more like a roll of 20 sided die and we need hit a 20 to win. Maybe if Alabama wins and like Milroe gets hurts at the very end and will not be able to play in the playoffs. 

We're talking about Texas vs Bama for spot 4 right? Yes that would probably be a coin flip. Maybe literally. 

[yoladu 4067]

11 minutes ago, Codaxx said:

I am not sure on this. Just assume Michigan, FSU, Oregon, Texas, and Bama win. 

Michigan is in.. 

FSU is in.. 

Now the committee has to pick 2 of the 3. Texas has the head to head over Bame. I believe the SOS argument argument over both. They have 3 choices

1. They send the message that the regular season does not matter and puts Bama in over Texas, which will bring in all kinds of heat. SOS does not matter and they put in Oregon

2. They leave the SEC out and the world goes nuts. SOS does not matter as Oregon in over Bama

3. They say we looked at the resumes. Bama and Texas have a stronger SOS and resume, than Oregon. They would also have the better win

 

Not so sure. Alabama and Oregon would have fresh wins against a #1 undefeated team and a #3 undefeated team respectively. I think that is just too strong to overlook.

 

*not to mention, their only regular season losses are going to be to a Top 10 team 1 loss team (Texas and Washington). Texas' loss was to a 2 loss Oklahoma.

Edited November 27, 2023 by yoladu

[Huckleberry 32701]

Just now, yoladu said:

Not so sure. Alabama and Oregon would have fresh wins against a #1 undefeated team and a #3 undefeated team respectively. I think that is just too strong to overlook.

No they wouldn't. Those teams wouldn't be #1 or #3 and wouldn't be undefeated. 

[Red Five 40664]

Put it this way. Remember the old days when OU would beat us, and we'd have to pull for them to lose twice? That's how tiebreakers are supposed to work. Bama needed us to lose twice and we didn't. 

[Codaxx 5602]

4 minutes ago, yoladu said:

Not so sure. Alabama and Oregon would have fresh wins against a #1 undefeated team and a #3 undefeated team respectively. I think that is just too strong to overlook.

its possible, but SOS and best win would both favor Texas over Oregon.. 

Bama would be ranked above Washington in the final poll. 

I would bet Georgia would be ranked above  Washington in the final poll

Committtee could be a slave to recency bias, but my argument is the cleanest and most logical path for the committee would be to select Texas and Bama. That maybe a stretch since this committee has not been bound by logic  

Edited November 27, 2023 by Codaxx

[yoladu 4067]

2 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

No they wouldn't. Those teams wouldn't be #1 or #3 and wouldn't be undefeated. 

semantics. They were at the time they played them.

[The_Great_Hornsby 3329]

22 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

Rooting for Bama does almost nothing for us if Washington, Michigan, and FSU win. Holding out hope that we'll get placed over Bama in that scenario is setting yourself up for disappointment. That is an extremely low likely scenario. You need to root for Oregon as well.   

That is better than an undefeated Georgia you numbskull, then we have 0 chance of getting in. Let's have the debate and make the committee look us in the eye and embarrass themselves on national TV by putting a team we beat by double digits on the road over us. FYI, Bama fans dont think they are going over us if it ends up head to head. 

[Alien Octopus 499]

2 hours ago, hook me said:

No, I didn't

Well that is what they are with their backup

[Huckleberry 32701]

2 minutes ago, yoladu said:

semantics. They were at the time they played them.

So was Alabama when Texas played them. The data that the committee would be using in the hypothetical scenario is not semantics. During their review Alabama in Tuscaloosa would be the best win. Best team, best location (road win), etc. There's no reasonable counterargument to that. 

[utexas8 1433]

FSU shouldn’t get in their back up sucks. Will the committee take that into account or no?

[Sbbruin 21735]

Just now, utexas8 said:

FSU shouldn’t get in their back up sucks. Will the committee take that into account or no?

If they are undefeated, they'll get in over any one loss team.

[The_Great_Hornsby 3329]

Just now, utexas8 said:

FSU shouldn’t get in their back up sucks. Will the committee take that into account or no?

Probably not. But I will say this. I wouldnt want to be marching into the playoffs with a poor man's Case McCoy to play Georgia LOL. Fuck that.

[JBJ 3649]

23 minutes ago, Pound Town said:

I don't think you are listening to yourself.

If Oregon wins the Pac 12, you would have to believe the committee would DEVALUE Oregon's win against a Top 5 team and let Texas pass them with a lesser win or Bama vault both of them with a win over Georgia.  The committee has boxed itself in, but it is not plausible for Texas and Bama to vault Oregon because they are tied at the hip.  And Oregon has their best win in front of them.

Current rankings don't matter.  We've seem the committee buck previous rankings several years now.  When they actually seriously start discussing who is in or out, things will change.

Texas has the best resume out of any 1-loss team. SoS, game control, wins over top 50, all solidly in our favor. I feel like this needs to be shouted from the roofs.  If we get bucked for another team it won't be because of anything to do with our resume.  It'll be because the committee thinks another team is better than us enough that it overcomes all that.

Edited November 27, 2023 by JBJ

[Paul Wesley 3277]

When I'm on the committee, the first consideration is going to be, "Did you play an FCS team?" and if the answer is yes, you're out.  

It's kind of bullshit to reward a non-con win over Southeastern Tallahassee School of Acupuncture (Look at that margin of victory!), and ignore going on the road to play a top-5 blue blood.    

Edit:  I mean, do they want the AD's to schedule meaningful games in September or not?  It seems like you'd want to send a message there.   

Edited November 27, 2023 by Paul Wesley

[Pound Town 21]

2 minutes ago, JBJ said:

Current rankings don't matter.  We've seem the committee buck previous rankings several years now.  When they actually seriously start discussing who is in or out, things will change.

Texas has the best resume out of any 1-loss team. SoS, game control, wins over top 50, all solidly in our favor. I feel like this needs to be shouted from the roofs.  If we get bucked for another team it won't be because of anything to do with our resume.  It'll be because the committee thinks another team is so better than us enough that it overcomes all that.

I am curious to hear examples.

[PilotsError 2282]

4 minutes ago, Paul Wesley said:

When I'm on the committee, the first consideration is going to be, "Did you play an FCS team?" and if the answer is yes, you're out.  

It's kind of bullshit to reward a win over Southeastern Tallahassee School of Acupuncture (Look at that margin of victory!), and ignore going on the road to play a top-5 blue blood.    

 

what the fuck are you babbling about?  

[Pound Town 21]

4 minutes ago, JBJ said:

 

Texas has the best resume out of any 1-loss team. SoS, game control, wins over top 50, all solidly in our favor. I feel like this needs to be shouted from the roofs.  If we get bucked for another team it won't be because of anything to do with our resume.  It'll be because the committee thinks another team is better than us enough that it overcomes all that.

This is where I get hung up.  "Texas has the best resume out of any 1-loss team."

I think most objective people think this.  But it doesn't matter what we think.  What matters is what the committee thinks.  And they clearly disagree.  And nothing will change in between now and Sunday in our favor.

[Dahobbs 17447]

13 minutes ago, yoladu said:

semantics. They were at the time they played them.

That's not semantics. 

[Drifterwood 159]

I understand the rationale from Texas fans saying that we could/should go over a 1-loss Bama SEC champ, but you’d have to completely disregard the SEC bias of the last 10-15 years and there’s just no chance the committee does that.

There would be a lot of commentary on Texas getting a raw deal, but it wouldn’t change anything. There is no chance the SEC champ misses the playoffs this year. There’s a better chance that Georgia goes instead of Texas even if Georgia loses than Texas going over Bama if Bama wins. The SEC bias is the strongest influence in CFB.

[Dahobbs 17447]

1 minute ago, Pound Town said:

This is where I get hung up.  "Texas has the best resume out of any 1-loss team."

I think most objective people think this.  But it doesn't matter what we think.  What matters is what the committee thinks.  And they clearly disagree.  And nothing will change in between now and Sunday in our favor.

You're caught up in today's rankings. They simply it don't matter. The change will be if Bama beats Georgia. Georgia will drop less than Washington. Bama will rise above them both. So will Texas. 

[Pancho 44478]

The problem with saying Georgia will automatically drop out of the top 4 if they lose is that has never happened before. No #1 seed has dropped out of the top 4 on Selection Sunday.

The word precedent gets mentioned here a lot when it comes to 1 loss conference champ versus 1 loss non conference champ. Well there’s precedent of also not dropping the #1 seed out of the top 4 if they lose as well. 

With that said, there also hasn’t been this many teams battling for a spot this late in the season.

That committee is praying to whatever god they believe in that the easiest thing happens on Saturday for them because if it doesn’t, they will have a shit ton of questions to answer (and potential fanbase to answer to)

[JBJ 3649]

13 minutes ago, Pound Town said:

I am curious to hear examples.

In 2020, Clemson jumped tOSU after both won their titles.

In 2017, Georgia jumped idle Alabama.

In 2016, Penn State jumped Oklahoma who won the B12 title and idle Michigan.

In 2015, Michigan State jumped idle Oklahoma

In 2014, Baylor and Ohio State jumped TCU after all 3 won.

[Ashylarry 255]

GIVEN that Bama beats Georgia in the SEC championship game

AND Bama is the SEC champion 

THEN  Texas the SEC champion by default

The logic checks out, I crunched the number..

Will the committee keep a Texas team that won the big 12 AND the SEC out of the playoffs?!!! 

 

Edited November 27, 2023 by Ashylarry

[hook me 2080]

42 minutes ago, Alien Octopus said:

Well that is what they are with their backup

Well, Travis Hunter isn't their backup.

You missed the joke & sarcasm. Let's just move along.

[Wilcox Cummingtonite 2870]

1 hour ago, Red Five said:

This is where I burn down all of North America.

"Oh we need to break a tie between these two teams.... what's that? They played in Tuscaloosa and Texas won by 10? Oh well that happened so long ago who even remembers.... "

just like 2008

[Wilcox Cummingtonite 2870]

17 minutes ago, Ashylarry said:

GIVEN that Bama beats Georgia in the SEC championship game

AND Bama is the SEC champion 

THEN  Texas the SEC champion by default

The logic checks out, I crunched the number..

Will the committee keep a Texas team that won the big 12 AND the SEC out of the playoffs?!!! 

 

Absolutely they would. If Bama wins, both GA and Bama are in.

[Frank Drebin 5621]

1 minute ago, Wilcox Cummingtonite said:

Absolutely they would. If Bama wins, both GA and Bama are in.

Wrong

[AnotherLawyer 383]

41 minutes ago, utexas8 said:

FSU shouldn’t get in their back up sucks. Will the committee take that into account or no?

People shouldn't say this. Change it to "Ewers has a shoulder injury, so 12-1 Big 12 Champ Texas shouldn't get in" and we'd be screaming bloody murder.

What a dumb fucking argument. If FSU is undefeated ACC Champ, shitty backup or not, they should go.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13414]

1 hour ago, Texas Wahoo said:

Good news guys!

 

 

I understand that in prior years the #1 team could lose their champ game and still make it. That is when maybe 5-6 teams have a shot going into the title weekend. This year having a 7th and theoretically 8th changes everything. No one should feel confident.

If Bama beats GA, Bama has a strong case that they should make it, but not in passing Texas. In fact, Bama would have a ridiculously strong argument for making it. Their only loss would be to a Top 4 or 5 Texas. I think GA needs to win to secure a spot. If they lose, then they need help just like every other 1 loss team.

[Wilcox Cummingtonite 2870]

Just now, Frank Drebin said:

Wrong

Not a chance in hell the committee is leaving out Georgia in favor of a 1-loss Texas. They’re in no matter what at this point. 
 

It won’t matter because Bama won’t beat Georgia anyway.

 

[The_Great_Hornsby 3329]

1 minute ago, Wilcox Cummingtonite said:

Not a chance in hell the committee is leaving out Georgia in favor of a 1-loss Texas. They’re in no matter what at this point. 
 

It won’t matter because Bama won’t beat Georgia anyway.

 

Holy fuck what a shitty take. 

Committee criteria:

1. Conference Championship (Adv Texas, and Texas would own a road win over the SEC champ)

2. Head to head (Not applicable)

3. SOS (Adv Texas)

4. Common Opponents (Adv Texas, we would have beaten Bama on the road and UGA would have lost at a neutral site)

And before anyone tries to say best loss, that argument collapses on itself because their "best loss" is to a team we beat. 

Texas > Georgia

 

Edited November 27, 2023 by The_Great_Hornsby

[Frank Drebin 5621]

1 minute ago, Wilcox Cummingtonite said:

Not a chance in hell the committee is leaving out Georgia in favor of a 1-loss Texas. They’re in no matter what at this point. 
 

It won’t matter because Bama won’t beat Georgia anyway.

 

I disagree.  If UGA loses, they are done.  I doubt they lose.

[The_Great_Hornsby 3329]

Just now, Frank Drebin said:

I disagree.  If UGA loses, they are done.  I doubt they lose.

This

[Wilcox Cummingtonite 2870]

1 minute ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

Holy fuck what a shitty take. 

Committee criteria:

1. Conference Championship (Adv Texas, and Texas would own a road win over the SEC champ)

2. Head to head (Not applicable)

3. SOS (Adv Texas)

4. Common Opponents (Adv Texas, we would have beaten Bama on the road and UGA would have lost at a neutral site)

And before anyone tries to say best loss, that argument collapses on itself because their "best loss" is to a team we beat. 

Texas > Georgia

 

actual committee criteria: 

[blutow 222]

ESPN is the most SEC biased party out there and even their playoff predictor says it's basically a toss-up if Bama beats Georgia.  Oh, and please stop the talk of a non-champ Georgia/tOSU getting in, the times something like that have happened in the past was a totally different situation where they got in over much less deserving champs compared to this year.  I'm not saying it's zero chance since people are involved and you never know, but that's the least of our worries if FSU doesn't lose.  

Here's the link to ESPN's predictor, you can quickly lay out any scenario based on this weekend.  I'd debate the exact odds on a few of the scenarios, but all of them seem directionally reasonable.  https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story/_/page/cfbplayoffpredictor/cfb-playoff-predictor

Here's what the ESPN predictor says if Bama, Texas, Oregon, FSU, and Mich win - 

[Red Five 40664]

I don't know if I've ever seen a thread with so many confident, objectively wrong takes. 

[dcar00 14035]

Louisville fucking owes us one...

[BigHornedLurker 1893]

1 minute ago, blutow said:

ESPN is the most SEC biased party out there and even their playoff predictor says it's basically a toss-up if Bama beats Georgia.  Oh, and please stop the talk of a non-champ Georgia/tOSU getting in, the times something like that have happened in the past was a totally different situation where they got in over much less deserving champs compared to this year.  I'm not saying it's zero chance since people are involved and you never know, but that's the least of our worries if FSU doesn't lose.  

Here's the link to ESPN's predictor, you can quickly lay out any scenario based on this weekend.  I'd debate the exact odds on a few of the scenarios, but all of them seem directionally reasonable.  https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story/_/page/cfbplayoffpredictor/cfb-playoff-predictor

Here's what the ESPN predictor says if Bama, Texas, Oregon, FSU, and Mich win - 

I would love those odds of winning outright if we made it in , only bad news is Harbaugh definitely has Stallions eye on us knowing we're coming into town next year. 

He'd dust that shit off from whatever safe its stored in 

 

[Gucci_Suit 2610]

I really doubt GA loses to Bama. They will be there.

PAC-12 champ will be in. Other one out. 

Michigan will “destroy” Iowa something like 20-3. They’re in. Ohio St doesn’t play, so they get no bump. Not in.

If Florida State beats Louisville by 20. They are in. If they lose, they are out. If they win by 1 on a last minute Hail Mary, the internet will break, but they are likely in. And they get beat by 20-30 in 1st round. 

[LonghornSean 3942]

It's also interesting, at least to me, that of the seven (or eight) remaining contenders, we are the only team who has not previously appeared in the CFP.

[wood 11153]

4 hours ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

Order of Games: Friday PM: PAC Champ, Sat AM: Big 12 Champ, Sat 3PM: SEC Champ, Sat PM: Big 10 Champ and ACC champ

For what it is worth, I dont see Bama beating Georgia. Milroe is a low IQ QB and I think they will expose that like Texas did. Georgia will only lose if they turn the ball over multiple times. 

Yep. Nobody seems to know if that's good or bad for us, but I just don't see Bama winning either. 

[Gucci_Suit 2610]

1 minute ago, LonghornSean said:

It's also interesting, at least to me, that of the seven (or eight) remaining contenders, we are the only team who has not previously appeared in the CFP.

But TCU did last year, so that’s basically us. /Ag

[elfenix 34171]

just like 2008

Too soon

[Vertuzzi 1360]

3 hours ago, ChickenNuggets said:

I think the committee puts a 1-loss alabama team who just beat Georgia in with Georgia and eliminates Texas. 

This right here. The SEC will occupy two playoff spots if Alabama beats Georgia. I assume Michigan will kick the shit out of Iowa, and the winner of Washington/Oregon takes the final spot.