THE College Football Playoff Rankings Thread [MICH,WASH,TEX,ALA]

[Gucci_Suit 2809]

A final that includes:

Georgia (or Bama)

Michigan

Oregon (lesser extent, Wash)

Texas

… is sexy as fuck and a ratings bonanza. Nationwide eyeballs. 

[Basil 767]

I would just like to extend a middle finger to all the dumbass morons on Oklahoma game threads this year just feeling that burning hatred and wanting Oklahoma to lose, even though it hurts us. Told y’all you were aggy.

[Texas Wahoo 3627]

52 minutes ago, Pancho said:

The problem with saying Georgia will automatically drop out of the top 4 if they lose is that has never happened before. No #1 seed has dropped out of the top 4 on Selection Sunday.

The word precedent gets mentioned here a lot when it comes to 1 loss conference champ versus 1 loss non conference champ. Well there’s precedent of also not dropping the #1 seed out of the top 4 if they lose as well. 

With that said, there also hasn’t been this many teams battling for a spot this late in the season.

That committee is praying to whatever god they believe in that the easiest thing happens on Saturday for them because if it doesn’t, they will have a shit ton of questions to answer (and potential fanbase to answer to)

I think the UGA/Bama game two years ago is the only time a number one team going into championship weekend ever lost, right?  So it is precedent, but it's not exactly a running thing.  That year, number 3 Bama beat number 1 UGA and they basically switched places.  The team that was number 5 going into the weekend was 1 loss OSU and they lost in the Big 12 championship.  The team that was number 6 was Notre Dame, who didn't play in a conference championship.

 

I'm not sure that applies if number 7/8 Bama beats number 1 UGA and the teams in between also win.

[Frank Drebin 5824]

2 minutes ago, Vertuzzi said:

This right here. The SEC will occupy two playoff spots if Alabama beats Georgia. I assume Michigan will kick the shit out of Iowa, and the winner of Washington/Oregon takes the final spot. 

God we have a lot of regarded posters on here. 

More likely 0 than 2 in that scenario.

[tokamak 6685]

I'm typing this all out for my own benefit. Not covering any new territory that hasn't already been covered in this thread. If it helps someone else keep it all straight, great.

There are 7 teams that could conceivably end up ahead of us in the final rankings. We need 4 or more of these to end up below us. In alphabetical order, they are:

1. Alabama - vs Georgia, +5.5, Saturday 3:00 PM. Should be below us with a win, due to head-to-head result, but the committee will still be very tempted by a 1-loss SEC champion Bama. Will certainly fall below us with a loss.
2. Florida State - vs Louisville, -2.5, Saturday 7:00 PM. Definitely in with a win. Would fall below us with a loss (as a 1-loss team that did not win its conference).
3. Georgia - vs Alabama, -5.5, Saturday 3:00 PM. Definitely in with a win. Should be below us with a loss, as a team that didn't win its conference. Committee might be tempted a little by SEC SEC SEC and recent run of dominance, especially if it's a close loss against Bama.
4. Michigan - vs Iowa, -23.0, Saturday 7:00 PM. Definitely in with a win. Should fall below us with a loss as a team that didn't win its conference.
5. Ohio State - no game. Did not win its conference, therefore should be below us in final rankings. Would be major committee fuckery otherwise.
6. Oregon - vs Washington, -9.5, Friday 7:00 PM. With a win, Oregon's position relative to us would be a pure beauty contest. Best to assume they'd be ahead of us. Would fall below us with a loss.
7. Washington - vs Oregon, +9.5, Friday 7:00 PM. Definitely in with a win. Would fall below us with a loss as a team that didn't win its conference.

So Ohio State and the Pac-12 loser will be below us no matter what. The Pac-12 winner is probably above us no matter what. So we need any 2 of the SEC loser, FSU, and Michigan to end up below us. Probably not happening with Michigan. We need Louisville to come through badly. I think we want Georgia to win the SEC, so as to knock Bama completely out of consideration. There's a chance that a Bama win could put us ahead of both SEC teams, but that's risky.

For the Pac-12 championship, we probably want Oregon to win. We know that Washington will be above us with a win. There's a (small?) chance that Oregon could end up behind us even with a win.

Rooting interests this weekend, in order: Louisville/Iowa >>> Georgia > Oregon.

[Valmy77 13567]

It isn't anything like 2008. We are still a newish program on the rise, we still don't have a senior who was recruited out of HS by Sark. Our program still has improvements to make at several positions. Our brightest days are still ahead. 

2008 was a special team hitting it's peak. 

And we aren't being passed up by our archrival who we beat and ESPN isn't getting Barry Switzer to announce it.

[JBJ 3780]

3 minutes ago, tokamak said:

For the Pac-12 championship, we probably want Oregon to win. We know that Washington will be above us with a win. There's a (small?) chance that Oregon could end up behind us even with a win.

This same logic applies to Alabama/Georgia.

[Valmy77 13567]

I know Florida fans were pretty candid about how their team was garbage and they stood no chance of beating FSU. I wonder how Louisville fans feel.

[dcar00 14902]

10 minutes ago, Basil said:

I would just like to extend a middle finger to all the dumbass morons on Oklahoma game threads this year just feeling that burning hatred and wanting Oklahoma to lose, even though it hurts us. Told y’all you were aggy.

Oklahoma's losses are not preventing us from being above Oregon.  Our loss to OU and the shit we kept pulling mid season are.  We needed OU to lose because there was no way of knowing if we would win out to make Big 12 champ game.

[UTEE97 3890]

9 minutes ago, Frank Drebin said:

God we have a lot of regarded posters on here. 

More likely 0 than 2 in that scenario.

To think that the SEC may not have any team in the CFP .... is something.

[Vertuzzi 1420]

5 minutes ago, Frank Drebin said:

God we have a lot of regarded posters on here. 

More likely 0 than 2 in that scenario.

Georgia hasn’t lost a football game since 2021 and are back to back champs. They will receive the benefit of this by not being dropped below 4 if they lose. A SEC champ, 1-loss Alabama isn’t missing out of the playoffs. The committee loves the SEC. They have already proven they love Oregon over Texas. Just don’t see how Texas gets in unless Florida State loses, Alabama loses, and Oregon loses. 

[TexasEd 8248]

Here are how I see the four spots broken down:

1. SEC Champ (13-0 Georgia or 12-1 Alabama) Top 10 game
2. PAC Champ (13-0 Washington or 12-1 Oregon) Top 5 game
3. Michigan if they win (13-0 Michigan is in 12-1 is out unless FSU and Texas lose) one team is not in top 10
4. FSU if they Win (13-0 FSU is in, 12-1 is out) one team is not in top 10

Next up if Michigan and/or FSU lose:

• 12-1 Texas
• 12-1 Georgia (if it was close)
• 12-1 Michigan (if it was close)
• 11-1 Ohio State
• 12-1 Washington (think of the dumb and dumber gif, "So you're saying there's a chance")

No chance:

• 11-2 Alabama
• 11-2 Oregon
• Iowa
• Louisville

We could possibly jump a 12-1 Alabama or 12-1 Oregon if they look bad while winning a 12-15 OT game and we crush Oklahoma State.

Oklahoma state is ranked too low and does not help us as much as a game against a top 10 OU would but everything else being equal that doesn't really help this year over the advantages we already have.

Edited November 27, 2023 by TexasEd

[Huckleberry 34407]

13 minutes ago, Basil said:

I would just like to extend a middle finger to all the dumbass morons on Oklahoma game threads this year just feeling that burning hatred and wanting Oklahoma to lose, even though it hurts us. Told y’all you were aggy.

If they hadn't lost twice we'd be even lower right now. Way to think that one through. 

[Valmy77 13567]

1 minute ago, dcar00 said:

Oklahoma's losses are not preventing us from being above Oregon.  Our loss to OU and the shit we kept pulling mid season are.  We needed OU to lose because there was no way of knowing if we would win out to make Big 12 champ game.

Well right. We are damn lucky to be 11-1. If we miss out it is because we aren't that great. I will not be that bitter.

Still...want to make it.

[hook me 2140]

2 minutes ago, Vertuzzi said:

Georgia hasn’t lost a football game since 2021 and are back to back champs. They will receive the benefit of this by not being dropped below 4 if they lose. A SEC champ, 1-loss Alabama isn’t missing out of the playoffs. The committee loves the SEC. They have already proven they love Oregon over Texas. Just don’t see how Texas gets in unless Florida State loses, Alabama loses, and Oregon loses. 

I beginning to hope that Bama wins just so we can put this stupid argument to bed. One group of people will be right, the receipts will be read, & the losing side should have to start a thread where they all admit to being idiots.

[ztejas 44114]

It honestly baffles me that there are Texas fans that can't figure out who they should be cheering for in the P12 and SEC title games. I'm surprised I haven't seen anyone ask whether Texas or Oklahoma State winning this weekend helps Texas more. I guess the week is still young. 

[Sbbruin 22082]

Just now, Vertuzzi said:

Georgia hasn’t lost a football game since 2021 and are back to back champs. They will receive the benefit of this by not being dropped below 4 if they lose. A SEC champ, 1-loss Alabama isn’t missing out of the playoffs. The committee loves the SEC. They have already proven they love Oregon over Texas. Just don’t see how Texas gets in unless Florida State loses, Alabama loses, and Oregon loses. 

I think you just answered it.  Unfortunately Texas' window to get in is pretty tight, and what you laid out may be the only avenue in.

[chainsaw 10244]

2 minutes ago, TexasEd said:

Here are how I see the four spots broken down:

1. SEC Champ (13-0 Georgia or 12-1 Alabama)
2. PAC Champ (13-0 Washington or 12-1 Oregon)
3. Michigan if they win (13-0 Michigan is in 12-1 is out unless FSU and Texas lose)
4. FSU if they Win (13-0 FSU is in, 12-1 is out)

Next up if Michigan and/or FSU lose:

• 12-1 Texas
• 12-1 Georgia
• 12-1 Michigan
• 11-1 Ohio State

No chance:

• 11-2 Alabama
• 11-2 Oregon
• Iowa
• Louisville

We could possibly jump a 12-1 Alabama or 12-1 Oregon if they look bad while winning a 12-15 OT game and we crush Oklahoma State.

Where do you put 12-1 UW

[Red Five 41596]

1 minute ago, Sbbruin said:

I think you just answered it.  Unfortunately Texas' window to get in is pretty tight, and what you laid out may be the only avenue in.

We only need FSU to lose. 

[TexasEd 8248]

Just now, ztejas said:

It honestly baffles me that there are Texas fans that can't figure out who they should be cheering for in the P12 and SEC title games. I'm surprised I haven't seen anyone ask whether Texas or Oklahoma State winning this weekend helps Texas more. I guess the week is still young. 

There is a thread:  

 

1 minute ago, chainsaw said:

Where do you put 12-1 UW

no chance

[UTEE97 3890]

2 minutes ago, hook me said:

I beginning to hope that Bama wins just so we can put this stupid argument to bed. One group of people will be right, the receipts will be read, & the losing side should have to start a thread where they all admit to being idiots.

Are you saying if Bama wins, Texas gets in and SEC doesn't get a spot? There is no chance in hell an SEC team doesn't get in. If you accept this, then why not root for the team that's already above us and why give the team below us one more stellar win and a conference championship that muddy the water for us?

[Pam Cummings 9823]

Oregon shouldnt be ranked ahead of Texas. The one team they played with a pulse, they lost.

[dcar00 14902]

3 minutes ago, Valmy77 said:

Well right. We are damn lucky to be 11-1. If we miss out it is because we aren't that great. I will not be that bitter.

Still...want to make it.

yep, it was why everyone was pissed when we kept shitting the bed to let bad teams almost beat us.  those that understood, knew we likely were going to need style points.  We can get some style points back against OSU if we bring the wood.

[Hank_Hill 19764]

With the amount of unbeatens and top 7 teams in their conference championship it is unfuckingbelievable people actually continue to argue a 1-loss non conference champion has a shot, cuz SEC. Fucking idiots.

[Frank Drebin 5824]

1 minute ago, Red Five said:

We only need FSU to lose. 

Or Georgia to lose.

Or Michigan to lose.

I still cannot believe there are people who went to Texas who think a Georgia -- who does not win its conference, has an inferior SOS to Texas, played garbage nonconference, and would have lost on a neutral site to a team Texas beat on the road by double digits -- would get the nod over Texas.  It is not happening.  No fucking way. 

1 minute ago, UTEE97 said:

Are you saying if Bama wins, Texas gets in and SEC doesn't get a spot? There is no chance in hell an SEC team doesn't get in. If you accept this, then why not root for the team that's already above us and why give the team below us one more stellar win and a conference championship that muddy the water for us?

Yes there is a chance.  And it is more likely than not if Alabama upsets Georgia.

[dcar00 14902]

Just now, Pam Cummings said:

Oregon shouldnt be ranked ahead of Texas. The one team they played with a pulse, they lost.

Oregon State gave them some juice unfortunately.  media isn't gonna look at OSU's actual wins/record just where they were ranked.

[Frank Drebin 5824]

1 minute ago, Hank_Hill said:

With the amount of unbeatens and top 7 teams in their conference championship it is unfuckingbelievable people actually continue to argue a 1-loss non conference champion has a shot, cuz SEC. Fucking idiots.

Thank you.  The SEC is not shit this year and the nonconference proved it.

[UTEE97 3890]

1 minute ago, Frank Drebin said:

Or Georgia to lose.

Or Michigan to lose.

I still cannot believe there are people who went to Texas who think a Georgia -- who does not win its conference, has an inferior SOS to Texas, played garbage nonconference, and would have lost on a neutral site to a team Texas beat on the road by double digits -- would get the nod over Texas.  It is not happening.  No fucking way. 

Yes there is a chance.  And it is more likely than not if Alabama upsets Georgia.

The best conference in the country who has won like 90%+ of the championships since the CFP has been formed will be left out? That's your genius take?

[hook me 2140]

2 minutes ago, UTEE97 said:

Are you saying if Bama wins, Texas gets in and SEC doesn't get a spot? There is no chance in hell an SEC team doesn't get in. If you accept this, then why not root for the team that's already above us and why give the team below us one more stellar win and a conference championship that muddy the water for us?

IF Bama wins (ftr I do not think that they will) I think it's more likely that both Bama & UT jump FSU (even if they win) than it is that UT gets left at home. Especially if FSU wins ugly & UT looks good (14+).

I've heard all the arguments in the world about why Bama would jump us & I don't think they will. The committee has had plenty of opportunities for put them in front of us while we were struggling with MM like they did Oregon & they chose not to. Obviously our H2H means something to the committee & that won't change. As impressive of a win as beating UGA would be, all that does is strengthen our resume & make our win in Tuscaloosa that much more impressive. 

[dcar00 14902]

38 minutes ago, BigHornedLurker said:

I would love those odds of winning outright if we made it in , only bad news is Harbaugh definitely has Stallions eye on us knowing we're coming into town next year. 

He'd dust that shit off from whatever safe its stored in 

 

we'd have a month to prepare for Harbaugh and change our signs.

[Vertuzzi 1420]

1 minute ago, hook me said:

IF Bama wins (ftr I do not think that they will) I think it's more likely that both Bama & UT jump FSU (even if they win) than it is that UT gets left at home. Especially if FSU wins ugly & UT looks good (14+).

I've heard all the arguments in the world about why Bama would jump us & I don't think they will. The committee has had plenty of opportunities for put them in front of us while we were struggling with MM like they did Oregon & they chose not to. Obviously our H2H means something to the committee & that won't change. As impressive of a win as beating UGA would be, all that does is strengthen our resume & make our win in Tuscaloosa that much more impressive. 

I hope you are right. I just think the obsession with Alabama, more specifically a conference champion Alabama, will be too good, in the committee’s view, to leave out of the playoff. I think they jump both Texas and Florida State. I think it would be total bullshit considering the H2H, but these committee members aren’t exactly the brightest people. 

[UTEE97 3890]

2 minutes ago, hook me said:

IF Bama wins (ftr I do not think that they will) I think it's more likely that both Bama & UT jump FSU (even if they win) than it is that UT gets left at home. Especially if FSU wins ugly & UT looks good (14+).

I've heard all the arguments in the world about why Bama would jump us & I don't think they will. The committee has had plenty of opportunities for put them in front of us while we were struggling with MM like they did Oregon & they chose not to. Obviously our H2H means something to the committee & that won't change. As impressive of a win as beating UGA would be, all that does is strengthen our resume & make our win in Tuscaloosa that much more impressive. 

I am not saying they will jump us for sure. While Bama struggled, so have we to put teams away, so it was just status quo for weeks. Now if they beat the CFP #1 team, they have a better overall resume, which may give the committee the excuse to put them over us. Our win over Bama serves as a strong data point for us for sure, but while comparing the two teams resume, a h2h win early on in the season may not carry as much weight as we would like to think.

[Pam Cummings 9823]

5 minutes ago, UTEE97 said:

The best conference in the country who has won like 90%+ of the championships since the CFP has been formed will be left out? That's your genius take?

I kinda agree with Drebin here. Texas isn't some plucky team that had a nice season and got lucky/came out of nowhere. Texas is a really good team with a lot of substance. We have guys that are NFL guys.

 

One loss conference champion Texas should get in over one loss non conference champion Georgia. And these are 2 blue blood schools. There is no "will we get eyeballs" for the committee to worry about.

[MrBig 5602]

3 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

If they hadn't lost twice we'd be even lower right now. Way to think that one through. 

If OU was undefeated, they would be ranked ahead of us before the championship game.

We would be in the spots that Washington (12-0) and Oregon (11-1) are occupying right now because the Pac 12 sucks. 

[dcar00 14902]

3 minutes ago, hook me said:

IF Bama wins (ftr I do not think that they will) I think it's more likely that both Bama & UT jump FSU (even if they win) than it is that UT gets left at home. Especially if FSU wins ugly & UT looks good (14+).

I've heard all the arguments in the world about why Bama would jump us & I don't think they will. The committee has had plenty of opportunities for put them in front of us while we were struggling with MM like they did Oregon & they chose not to. Obviously our H2H means something to the committee & that won't change. As impressive of a win as beating UGA would be, all that does is strengthen our resume & make our win in Tuscaloosa that much more impressive. 

they aren't putting Texas in over undefeated FSU.  FSU at least played LSU, even if they aren't that good this year.

It would be nice if they would as it would actually make schools think twice about their OOC but it just isn't going to happen.

[blutow 238]

10 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

Oklahoma's losses are not preventing us from being above Oregon.  Our loss to OU and the shit we kept pulling mid season are.  We needed OU to lose because there was no way of knowing if we would win out to make Big 12 champ game.

OU losing to Kansas (and almost to UCF) was definitely a factor in Oregon being ranked above us in the initial CFP rankings.  Those initial CFP rankings came out 3 days after OU lost to Kansas.  "Quality of loss" absolutely matters.  If OU had kept rolling and stayed undefeated, our loss would be to a top 4 team and we'd be in front of Oregon right now (if we didn't drop a game).   And we'd have a chance to beat a top 4 undefeated in our CCG.  Basically, the reason Oregon is in front of us (and we don't have a path to jump them) is that Washington kept winning and OU shit the bed.  The only reason we "needed" OU to lose is if we were also planning to lose, which is just pussy perspective.  All the "we'll have scoreboard on OSU" stuff is petty/aggy BS to me.  Would have been so much better to crush an undefeated OU in the CCG and punch our ticket to the playoffs while sending OU home.   

[UTEE97 3890]

1 minute ago, Pam Cummings said:

I kinda agree with Drebin here. Texas isn't some plucky team that had a nice season and got lucky/came out of nowhere. Texas is a really good team with a lot of substance. We have guys that are NFL guys.

 

One loss conference champion Texas should get in over one loss non conference champion Georgia. And these are 2 blue blood schools. There is no "will we get eyeballs" for the committee to worry about.

No, he is saying SEC might get left out if Bama wins, which I find to be absurd. I am not arguing for two SEC teams.

[Red Five 41596]

11 minutes ago, UTEE97 said:

The best conference in the country who has won like 90%+ of the championships since the CFP has been formed will be left out? That's your genius take?

In this particular scenario, where the SEC champ lost at home by 10 to 12-1 Texas? Yes, potentially. 

Edited November 27, 2023 by Red Five
added a qualifier

[dcar00 14902]

2 minutes ago, MrBig said:

If OU was undefeated, they would be ranked ahead of us before the championship game.

We would be in the spots that Washington (12-0) and Oregon (11-1) are occupying right now because the Pac 12 sucks. 

the pac12 sucks ass now, and everyone knows it, so why aren't we above Oregon?

[chainsaw 10244]

1 loss conference champ should always beat out a non-champ team with 1 loss and when two champs have the same records the tie should be broken by head-to-head.

Therefore, a 12-1 Texas deserves to beat out a 12-1 non-champ Georgia and a 12-1 Texas deserves to beat out a 12-1 Alabama due to the head-to-head. But it would be a cold day in hell before the SEC has no representative in the 4-team CFP.

[dcar00 14902]

2 minutes ago, Red Five said:

In this particular scenario, where the SEC champ lost at home by 10 to 12-1 Texas? Yes, potentially. 

The Sept Bama v Dec Bama ESPN media machine will ramp into overdrive.  It is already in 3rd gear.

That said ESPN would want Texas but probably not at the expense of 2 SEC teams.

[MrBig 5602]

Just now, dcar00 said:

the pac12 sucks ass now, and everyone knows it, so why aren't we above Oregon?

Because we lost to a team who lost to Kansas and Gundy.

Oregon lost to an undefeated Washington team.

If our loss was to an undefeated OU team, we would be higher than Oregon right now.

[Dahobbs 18190]

Just now, UTEE97 said:

To think that the SEC may not have any team in the CFP .... is something.

The SEC will have a team in the CFP. But only one. It is slightly more likely that it will have 0 teams (about 5% chance) than it will have 2 teams (about 1% chance, needs Texas, Michigan, and FSU to lose).  

[TexasFan21 1275]

Tuesday evening cannot get here fast enough for this thread. 

[Pam Cummings 9823]

2 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

the pac12 sucks ass now, and everyone knows it, so why aren't we above Oregon?

I just don't buy Oregon, and Washington to a lesser extent. Texas is better than both.

[Frank Drebin 5824]

Just now, TexasFan21 said:

Tuesday evening cannot get here fast enough for this thread. 

Does not matter what happens this Tuesday.

[yoladu 4187]

22 minutes ago, ztejas said:

It honestly baffles me that there are Texas fans that can't figure out who they should be cheering for in the P12 and SEC title games. I'm surprised I haven't seen anyone ask whether Texas or Oklahoma State winning this weekend helps Texas more. I guess the week is still young. 

i think most people know who they should be cheering for, but in regards to the Pac12 and SEC, a good portion think Texas will be out no won't matter who wins those. Yes, our odds are better if Bama and Oregon win, but still on the outside looking in, i think.

[Texas Wahoo 3627]

2 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

1 loss conference champ should always beat out a non-champ team with 1 loss and when two champs have the same records the tie should be broken by head-to-head.

Therefore, a 12-1 Texas deserves to beat out a 12-1 non-champ Georgia and a 12-1 Texas deserves to beat out a 12-1 Alabama due to the head-to-head. But it would be a cold day in hell before the SEC has no representative in the 4-team CFP.

As I said before, the SEC will still claim the championship if we win this year.  People are acting like we're not basically an SEC team already.

[LonghornSean 4072]

9 minutes ago, blutow said:

OU losing to Kansas (and almost to UCF) was definitely a factor in Oregon being ranked above us in the initial CFP rankings.  Those initial CFP rankings came out 3 days after OU lost to Kansas.  "Quality of loss" absolutely matters.  If OU had kept rolling and stayed undefeated, our loss would be to a top 4 team and we'd be in front of Oregon right now (if we didn't drop a game).   And we'd have a chance to beat a top 4 undefeated in our CCG.  Basically, the reason Oregon is in front of us (and we don't have a path to jump them) is that Washington kept winning and OU shit the bed.  The only reason we "needed" OU to lose is if we were also planning to lose, which is just pussy perspective.  All the "we'll have scoreboard on OSU" stuff is petty/aggy BS to me.  Would have been so much better to crush an undefeated OU in the CCG and punch our ticket to the playoffs while sending OU home.   

There's no way to really know the answer for why, but I disagree that the comparison of losses is what put Oregon ahead of us initially. Much more likely IMO it's because before the first CFP rankings, we were one week removed from barely beating UH, while Oregon had just crushed a 13th ranked at the time Utah.

Edited November 27, 2023 by LonghornSean

[chainsaw 10244]

1 minute ago, Texas Wahoo said:

As I said before, the SEC will still claim the championship if we win this year.  People are acting like we're not basically an SEC team already.

I say, let 'em. Fuck Yormark. But the committee won't see us that way.