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THE College Football Playoff Rankings Thread [MICH,WASH,TEX,ALA]

texifornia

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Texas Wahoo

Texas Wahoo 3383

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, blutow said:

OU losing to Kansas (and almost to UCF) was definitely a factor in Oregon being ranked above us in the initial CFP rankings.  Those initial CFP rankings came out 3 days after OU lost to Kansas.  "Quality of loss" absolutely matters.  If OU had kept rolling and stayed undefeated, our loss would be to a top 4 team and we'd be in front of Oregon right now (if we didn't drop a game).   And we'd have a chance to beat a top 4 undefeated in our CCG.  Basically, the reason Oregon is in front of us (and we don't have a path to jump them) is that Washington kept winning and OU shit the bed.  The only reason we "needed" OU to lose is if we were also planning to lose, which is just pussy perspective.  All the "we'll have scoreboard on OSU" stuff is petty/aggy BS to me.  Would have been so much better to crush an undefeated OU in the CCG and punch our ticket to the playoffs while sending OU home.   

If OU had not lost to Kansas and only had one loss to OSU and if OSU had not blown the later game that they did not really need to win against UCF, are we sure Texas would have made the championship game against either OU or OSU?

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UTEE97

UTEE97 3429

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

The SEC will have a team in the CFP. But only one. It is slightly more likely that it will have 0 teams (about 5% chance) than it will have 2 teams (about 1% chance, needs Texas, Michigan, and FSU to lose).  

History disagrees with you. There has never been no SEC teams in the CFP but there has been two teams regardless of the reasons. The committee's task is to find the 4 best teams right now. They consider conference championships and many other things but we don't know what biases they will be driven by. Yes, Tuesday can't come soon enough!

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chainsaw

chainsaw 9838

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, LonghornSean said:

There's no way to really know the answer for why, but I disagree that the comparison of losses is what put Oregon ahead of us initially. Much more likely IMO is that before the first CFP rankings, we were one week removed from barely beating UH, while Oregon had just crushed a 13th ranked Utah.

The same Utah who struggled in Waco.

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blutow

blutow 222

Posted
Posted
Just now, Frank Drebin said:

Does not matter what happens this Tuesday.

I expect it will be status quo other than dropping tOSU (and maybe swapping Georgia/Mich).  They will probably put tOSU in front of some (or all) of the 1 loss teams and people will loss their minds even though it's meaningless.  

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dcar00

dcar00 14035

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, MrBig said:

Because we lost to a team who lost to Kansas and Gundy.

Oregon lost to an undefeated Washington team.

If our loss was to an undefeated OU team, we would be higher than Oregon right now.

so only losses by opponents matter?  by every other metric we are better than Oregon.

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dcar00

dcar00 14035

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, LonghornSean said:

There's no way to really know the answer for why, but I disagree that the comparison of losses is what put Oregon ahead of us initially. Much more likely IMO is that before the first CFP rankings, we were one week removed from barely beating UH, while Oregon had just crushed a 13th ranked at the time Utah.

this.  the committee has had chances to rectify it but they won't.

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mdmost

mdmost 42865

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Texas Wahoo said:

Agree with this.  This ranking will tell us almost nothing about what happens next week.

The best part will be when everyone in this thread loses their shit because Ohio State is ranked above us this Tuesday, all the while not realizing that this ranking is temporary and if we beat oSu we go right past Ohio State on Sunday. 

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dcar00

dcar00 14035

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, mdmost said:

The best part will be when everyone in this thread loses their shit because Ohio State is ranked above us this Tuesday, all the while not realizing that this ranking is temporary and if we beat oSu we go right past Ohio State on Sunday. 

I think everyone is aware that tOSU doesn't get the 13th data point/12th win so it won't matter.

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TexasEd

TexasEd 8064

Posted
Posted (edited)
17 minutes ago, TexasFan21 said:

Tuesday evening cannot get here fast enough for this thread. 

Tuesday's ranking don't matter

17 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

1 loss conference champ should always beat out a non-champ team with 1 loss and when two champs have the same records the tie should be broken by head-to-head.

Therefore, a 12-1 Texas deserves to beat out a 12-1 non-champ Georgia and a 12-1 Texas deserves to beat out a 12-1 Alabama due to the head-to-head. But it would be a cold day in hell before the SEC has no representative in the 4-team CFP.

If 12-1 Alabama beats #1 Georgia they are in.  That win vs #1 Georgia is better than our Win against Alabama.

If #5 Oregon beats #3  Washington then Oregon is in.  

The Conference Championship game rankings matter and Texas will not jump the winner of these top 10/top 5 conference championship games.  Only if Michigan or FSU loses or some outside chance is the Alabama or Oregon wins are very ugly and we steamroll.

 

Edited by TexasEd
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Dahobbs

Dahobbs 17447

Posted
Posted (edited)
15 minutes ago, UTEE97 said:

History disagrees with you. There has never been no SEC teams in the CFP but there has been two teams regardless of the reasons. The committee's task is to find the 4 best teams right now. They consider conference championships and many other things but we don't know what biases they will be driven by. Yes, Tuesday can't come soon enough!

Show me the history with a comparable situation. History shows that conference champs trump non-conference champs of equal record. I absolutely agree it is unlikely that the SEC gets left out, which is why I gave it a 1% chance of happening. Again, I think that would take Michigan, Washington, and FSU winning, and Alabama winning with Milroe going down in the closing minutes and being unable to play in the playoffs. 

With a win, Texas is in if either Louisville or Iowa wins. Texas has a very good shot at being in if Bama and Oregon win (combinations are Texas/Bama at 60%, Oregon/Bama at 38.5%, and Texas/Oregon at 1%, and Bama/Georgia at .5%). Texas has a low probability of being in if Washington and Bama win (along with FSU and Michigan). 

Edited by Dahobbs
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blutow

blutow 222

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, LonghornSean said:

There's no way to really know the answer for why, but I disagree that the comparison of losses is what put Oregon ahead of us initially. Much more likely IMO is that before the first CFP rankings, we were one week removed from barely beating UH, while Oregon had just crushed a 13th ranked at the time Utah.

It certainly didn't help.  Agree that the Utah win was a big factor in the initial rankings.  I don't think UH played into it that much, we had just beat BYU pretty convincingly.  But I think the washington vs. OU comparison is fair.  It OU had kept winning and we beat them in CCG, no way would wouldn't have jumped Oregon.  It's already tough to justify Oregon being in front of us as it sits.  

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joeycovers

joeycovers 385

Posted
Posted

Who has a list of the committee members and allegiances?

 

Im sure it has 1 or 2 that just absolutely hate UT and wont budge on letting them in top 4 if other similar options are available.

 

Honestly surprised yall think unbeaten Noles are a lock.  They dropped last week. Wont be surprised if they drop again even if its just below Oregon. If so it doesnt matter if they win or lose Sat. They are toast. 

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Jimbob

Jimbob 417

Posted
Posted

All the talking heads opinion that the B12 is the worst conference while the PAC is the 3rd or possibly 2nd best conference this year is certainly a take.  
Just about everyone I’ve heard on radio and TV are saying UO/UW is a play-in game.  
 

PAC is the pyrite conference skating by on early OOC games that were fools gold.  Best OOC win, UO over Tech by 8?  

 And fuck giving teams credit for ranked wins based on where they were ranked… I get giving a team a loss lowers their ranking, but App St did not beat the #6 team last year.  
 

Grampa Simpson Meme GIF by MOODMAN

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ITHorn

ITHorn 797

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, joeycovers said:

Who has a list of the committee members and allegiances?

 

Boo Corrigan 
NC State Athletic Director, February 2024

Mitch Barnhart
Kentucky Athletic Director, February 2024

Chris Ault
Nevada Athletic Director, February 2026

Mark Harlan
Utah Athletic Director, February 2026

Chet Gladchuk
Navy Athletic Director, February 2025

Jim Grobe 
Former coach, February 2025

Warde Manuel 
Michigan Athletic Director, February 2025

David Sayler,
Miami (OH) Athletic Director, February 2026

Will Shields 
Former Nebraska player, February 2024

Rod West
Former Notre Dame player, February 2025

Gene Taylor 
Kansas State Athletic Director, February 2024

Joe Taylor 
Virginia Union Athletic Director, February 2024

Kelly Whiteside 
Former college football reporter for multiple outlets, February 2025

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ChickenNuggets

ChickenNuggets 1611

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, ITHorn said:

Boo Corrigan 
NC State Athletic Director, February 2024

Mitch Barnhart
Kentucky Athletic Director, February 2024

Chris Ault
Nevada Athletic Director, February 2026

Mark Harlan
Utah Athletic Director, February 2026

Chet Gladchuk
Navy Athletic Director, February 2025

Jim Grobe 
Former coach, February 2025

Warde Manuel 
Michigan Athletic Director, February 2025

David Sayler,
Miami (OH) Athletic Director, February 2026

Will Shields 
Former Nebraska player, February 2024

Rod West
Former Notre Dame player, February 2025

Gene Taylor 
Kansas State Athletic Director, February 2024

Joe Taylor 
Virginia Union Athletic Director, February 2024

Kelly Whiteside 
Former college football reporter for multiple outlets, February 2025

I bet Warde knows both the preferred teams and their play signals... 

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Horndog

Horndog 2218

Posted
Posted

Someone earlier mentioned game control as an element of consideration by the committee.  I don't know if that's actually something they look at or just something they said one time to justify a particular ranking, but having nothing better to do I went through the Texas schedule game by game and calculated the amount of time tied, leading, or behind.  I did not take into account the actual O/T against KSU because no time clock is used in O/T.  Out of a total of 720 minutes of game clock, Texas had the lead for 536:00 minutes (74%), was tied for  119:32 (17%), and was behind for only 64:18 (9%).  The number of minutes tied includes the start of the games until the first team scored.  Some notable points:

  • There were only two games where Texas was behind for more than 8 total minutes: OU and Wyoming.
  • In the Bama game, Texas led for 47:04, and only trailed for 1:09. 
  • In six of the games, Texas scored first and never trailed.
  • There were only 2 games where Texas was behind at any point after it had taken a lead: OU and Alabama (for all of 1 minute and 9 seconds). 
  • Even in the close calls (KSU, TCU, and UH), Texas never trailed after it had taken a lead.
  • Other than the OU game, the LATEST point in a game that Texas trailed was Bama in the first minute of the 4th quarter. 
  • Other than OU and Bama, Texas NEVER TRAILED in the second half of any game. 
  • In 8 games Texas led for more than 45 minutes, and there were 2 others where Texas led for more than 40 minutes, and one where it led for 30 minutes. That means that Texas had the lead for at least half of the game in 11 of 12 games played. 
  • On average, Texas led for 44:38, trailed for 5:23, and was tied for 9:59. 

I'm too lazy to look up the numbers for Bama, UW, or Oregon. 

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yoladu

yoladu 4067

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, Valmy77 said:

I still think if FSU loses, we are in so long as we beat Oklahoma State.

the only real question would be if Bama barely beats Georgia and SEC homers (Finebaum) start yelling that Georgia deserves that 4th spot. Actually, he is already started to make that argument on the ESPN afternoon talk shows. 

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Texasborn91

Texasborn91 899

Posted
Posted
21 minutes ago, TexasEd said:

Tuesday's ranking don't matter

If 12-1 Alabama beats #1 Georgia they are in.  That win vs #1 Georgia is better than our Win against Alabama.

If #5 Oregon beats #3  Washington then Oregon is in.  

The Conference Championship game rankings matter and Texas will not jump the winner of these top 10/top 5 conference championship games.  Only if Michigan or FSU loses or some outside chance is the Alabama or Oregon wins are very ugly and we steamroll.

 

So Bama goes for having a better win than Texas? Is my sarcasm meter broken? 

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The_Great_Hornsby

The_Great_Hornsby 3329

Posted
Posted
44 minutes ago, UTEE97 said:

I am not saying they will jump us for sure. While Bama struggled, so have we to put teams away, so it was just status quo for weeks. Now if they beat the CFP #1 team, they have a better overall resume, which may give the committee the excuse to put them over us. Our win over Bama serves as a strong data point for us for sure, but while comparing the two teams resume, a h2h win early on in the season may not carry as much weight as we would like to think.

You should apply to be Finebaum's assistant. Let's compare two teams on paper when we have actual video of them playing each other and Texas kicking their ass in Tuscaloosa. Gee I wonder who we should take. 

stupid-retarded.gif

 

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The_Great_Hornsby

The_Great_Hornsby 3329

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Texasborn91 said:

So Bama goes for having a better win than Texas? Is my sarcasm meter broken? 

Lol we are dealing with some serious fucking idiots on this thread. If Bama beats Georgia, our win is instantly better than their win and we have the best win in the country. And our was on the road, not at a neutral site. 

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Huckleberry

Huckleberry 32701

Posted
Posted (edited)
30 minutes ago, TexasEd said:

If 12-1 Alabama beats #1 Georgia they are in.  That win vs #1 Georgia is better than our Win against Alabama.

Explain why Alabama beating Georgia at a neutral site is a better win than Texas beating the team that beat Georgia (for its only loss in this scenario) on the road. 

Alabama will have beaten a one loss team that isn't a conference champion at a neutral site. They will have beaten a team that is lower ranked than they are after the game. 

Texas will have beaten a one loss conference champion on the road. Alabama will be higher ranked than Georgia after the game. 

In what world is Alabama's win better in this scenario? For double points, make the argument without using stuff that did not occur during the 2023 season that is the only season for which this committee will be ranking teams. 

Edited by Huckleberry
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TexasEd

TexasEd 8064

Posted
Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

Explain why Alabama beating Georgia at a neutral site is a better win than Texas beating the team that beat Georgia (for its only loss in this scenario) on the road. 

Alabama will have beaten a one loss team that isn't a conference champion at a neutral site. They will have beaten a team that is lower ranked than they are after the game. 

Texas will have beaten a one loss conference champion on the road. Alabama will be higher ranked than Georgia after the game. 

In what world is Alabama's win better in this scenario? For double points, make the argument without using stuff that did not occur during the 2023 that is the only season for which this committee will be ranking teams. 

SEC Championship - You know an SEC team is getting in, that is either 13-0 Georgia or 12-1 Alabama

The SEC and PAC champions are both getting in even if it is Oregon and Alabama.*  Our only hopes are on Michigan and/or FSU losses

* There is an outside chance of jumping 12-1 Oregon or Alabama if they play like shit and win a 5-3 OT game while we cruise over OK St.

 

Spots will go to teams in about this order:

  1. 13-0 Georgia
  2. 13-0 Michigan
  3. 13-0 Washington
  4. 13-0 FSU
  5. 12-1 Alabama
  6. 12-1 Oregon
  7. 12-1 Texas
Edited by TexasEd
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Serak The Preparer

Serak The Preparer 3424

Posted
Posted
30 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

Show me the history with a comparable situation. History shows that conference champs trump non-conference champs of equal record. I absolutely agree it is unlikely that the SEC gets left out, which is why I gave it a 1% chance of happening. Again, I think that would take Michigan, Washington, and FSU winning, and Alabama winning with Milroe going down in the closing minutes and being unable to play in the playoffs. 

With a win, Texas is in if either Louisville or Iowa wins. Texas has a very good shot at being in if Bama and Oregon win (combinations are Texas/Bama at 60%, Oregon/Bama at 38.5%, and Texas/Oregon at 1%, and Bama/Georgia at .5%). Texas has a low probability of being in if Washington and Bama win (along with FSU and Michigan). 

I'm not sure why you keep bringing up Pac 12 title game as if it is relevant. Even if Oregon wins, your own example shows Texas / Oregon only going in 1% of time. I agree that there is a sliver of a chance that Texas passes Oregon but it seems pretty damn low to me. The two realistic games that matter (assuming Texas wins of course) are ACC and SEC title games.

Anyone who states conclusively what will happen if Alabama wins is a fool but I do think there is a >50% chance that Texas goes in over Alabama.

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joeycovers

joeycovers 385

Posted
Posted
21 minutes ago, ITHorn said:

Boo Corrigan 
NC State Athletic Director, February 2024

Mitch Barnhart
Kentucky Athletic Director, February 2024

Chris Ault
Nevada Athletic Director, February 2026

Mark Harlan
Utah Athletic Director, February 2026

Chet Gladchuk
Navy Athletic Director, February 2025

Jim Grobe 
Former coach, February 2025

Warde Manuel 
Michigan Athletic Director, February 2025

David Sayler,
Miami (OH) Athletic Director, February 2026

Will Shields 
Former Nebraska player, February 2024

Rod West
Former Notre Dame player, February 2025

Gene Taylor 
Kansas State Athletic Director, February 2024

Joe Taylor 
Virginia Union Athletic Director, February 2024

Kelly Whiteside 
Former college football reporter for multiple outlets, February 2025

Ya, Nobody going to bat for UT in that crowd. We are screwed 

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Valmy77

Valmy77 13094

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, TexasEd said:

SEC Championship - You know an SEC team is getting in, that is either 13-0 Georgia or 12-1 Alabama

The SEC and PAC champions are both getting in even if it is Oregon and Alabama.*  Our only hopes are on Michigan and/or FSU losses

* There is an outside chance of jumping 12-1 Oregon or Alabama if they play like shit and win a 5-3 OT game while we cruise over OK St.

Maybe with Oregon. I just cannot see them taking us over Bama if Bama wins the SEC title game even if it is 5-3. Heck that overtime safety alone should get them in. The fact we beat them will be long forgotten after they broke the greatest SECSECSEC winning streak.

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Serak The Preparer

Serak The Preparer 3424

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, TexasEd said:

SEC Championship - You know an SEC team is getting in, that is either 13-0 Georgia or 12-1 Alabama

The SEC and PAC champions are both getting in even if it is Oregon and Alabama.*  Our only hopes are on Michigan and/or FSU losses

* There is an outside chance of jumping 12-1 Oregon or Alabama if they play like shit and win a 5-3 OT game while we cruise over OK St.

Stop it. You don't know. Nobody knows until the committee announces it in that case. The SEC is down this year and you'd be asking the committee to ignore Head-to-head. They might, of course, but stating it like a fact is silly.

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hobbes2702

hobbes2702 12844

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, UTEE97 said:

So many people treating this as a mathematical problem to solve instead of trying to see it from the POV of inherently biased humans who have no affiliation with our university! 

I think those biased humans also have an eye on ratings. Putting Bama or 1 loss UGA over Texas crushes the ratings from August-October. OOC games will be completely dead. 

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hook me

hook me 2080

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, UTEE97 said:

So many people treating this as a mathematical problem to solve instead of trying to see it from the POV of inherently biased humans who have no affiliation with our university! 

You're assuming the biases of 13 humans you've never net & then coming to a conclusion on how all of those trains of thoughts are going to work themselves out when discussed & voted on.

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Hmbre97

Hmbre97 6297

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Valmy77 said:

Interesting. If Bama wins AND Oregon wins (and we beat down OSU obviously) we might have a good claim based on this.

But...yeah probably won't happen. FSU needs to lose. Everything else is probably wish casting.

Our strength of schedule has been above both teams since the CFP rankings started and Oregon is still ahead of us. I doubt they just decide on the last ranking to be like "oh, would you look at that". They've been ignoring it and will continue to do so. 

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