THE College Football Playoff Rankings Thread [MICH,WASH,TEX,ALA]

[NashLonghorn 270]

2 hours ago, Dahobbs said:

SOS isn't based on top 25 rankings. It is based on the entire schedule. The vast majority of the teams we played turned out to be solid. 

1. Rice, 6-6, going bowling (4 close loses)
2. Alabama, 11-1, potential CFP
3. Wyoming, 8-4, going bowling
4. Baylor, 3-9 (hahaha)
5. Kansas. 8-4, going bowling 
6. Sooners, 10-2, going bowling
7.  Houston, 4-8
8. BYU, 5-7 
9.  Kansas State, 8-4, going bowling
10. TCU,  5-7
11.  Iowa State, 7-5, going bowling
12.  Texas Tech, 6-6, going bowling

2 of the 4 teams we played that aren't going bowling are just barely missing out. 8 of the 12 had records that were .500 or better.  The composite win percentage of our opponents is 57% (81-61). 

In comparison, Oregon:

1. Portland State, 5-6 (FCS)
2. Texas Tech, 6-6, going bowling
3. Hawaii, 5-8
4. Colorado, 4-8
5. Stanford, 3-9
6. Washington, 12-0
7.  Washington State, 5-7
8. Utah, 8-4, going bowling
9. Cal, 6-6, going bowling
10. USC, 7-5, going bowling
11. Arizona State, 3-9
12. Oregon State, 8-4, going bowling

Only 5 of Oregon's opponents are going to a bowl game. Combined win percentage of exactly 50% (72-72). And an FCS team was thrown in the mix for good measure. 

Alabama

1. Middle Tenn, 4-8
2. Texas, 11-1
3. South Florida, 6-6, bowling
4.  Ole Miss, 10-2, bowling
5.  Miss State, 5-7
6.  Aggy, 7-5, bowling
7.  Arkansas, 4-8
8.  Tenn, 8-4, bowling
9.  LSU, 9-3, bowling
10.  Kentucky, 7-5, bowling
11. Chattanooga, 8-4 (FCS)
12.  Auburn,  6-6, bowling

Combined win percentage, 59%, with the caveat that there is an FCS team in there AND every SEC team schedules an additional out of conference cupcake over other conferences. 

 

 

 

 

If only the committee looked at the teams that way. 

[Texasborn91 897]

I still don’t know why they wouldn’t take another look at Oregon Vs Texas. Texas has SOS, SOR, best win of the season ( vs #3 at the time on the road) and better opponent record…. Oh yeah and common opponent not even close. They botched it in the beginning, that’s fine. Just make it right now. Eye test isn’t a determining factor. 

[NashLonghorn 270]

1 hour ago, conVINCEd said:

Watchability is relative.  Check out an Iowa game and get back to me.

Watching Iowa football is a total beat-down 

[blutow 222]

2 minutes ago, Texasborn91 said:

I still don’t know why they wouldn’t take another look at Oregon Vs Texas. Texas has SOS, SOR, best win of the season ( vs #3 at the time on the road) and better opponent record…. Oh yeah and common opponent not even close. They botched it in the beginning, that’s fine. Just make it right now. Eye test isn’t a determining factor. 

Because people like that don't like to fall on swords publicly and admit screw ups.  I could never be a politician because I'm the first guy to fall on a sword (even if it isn't mine) if it moves things forward.  If you aren't screwing things up on a regular basis, you aren't trying hard enough.... Most of the committee members are glorified politicians pushing their agendas, there is no performance incentive for them to "get the right teams".  

[Darth Tron 1122]

I don't know how the committee will ultimately lean.  No one truly does. 

 

I do know that this school of absolute certainty that there is no way the committee would possibly screw Texas is just asking for fate to burn them.  Do these schools in these scenarios deserve to get into the playoff ahead of us?  I don't think so.  The stated criteria don't say so.  Past indicators don't give precedent for it.

 

But I've followed Texas football long enough to know that if the football gods have an inch to screw us, they will take a mile.  So I wouldn't be so damn certain that there is absolutely no way we get left out in any scenario.  That's what happens when you blow a 4th quarter lead against your rival.

[Nivek 16859]

Oregon above Texas is a joke.  If I ran the playoff committee I would count every FCS game as a loss.  Bama is 10-2.  Oregon is 9-3.  You schedule these cupcakes you better win the conference or fuck right off.  

[LonghornSean 3942]

Good stuff here.

Spoiler

The projected outcome this week is wins by Michigan, Georgia, Oregon, Texas and Florida State. This will leave us with an Oregon vs Texas debate with maybe a sprinkling of FSU thrown in. Here are the resumes for Texas and Oregon in full detail.

 

 

 

 

If we bucketize the raw resume we see the following:

 

• Wins over poor to average FBS teams (check): Oregon = 6, Texas = 6

• Wins over good FBS teams (!): Oregon = 3, Texas = 3

• Wins over great teams not named Alabama (star): Oregon = 1, Texas = 1

• Losses to teams slightly worse than them (x): Oregon = 1, Texas = 1

• 12th game: Oregon beats Portland State, Texas beats Alabama

The raw resume differential is essentially not that large if you traded Portland State for Alabama on Oregon’s resume. Still, that matters a great deal! Alabama losing to Texas is one of the most valuable results of the entire season. Oregon makes up for this raw resume differential by having the stronger team strength rating dispersion seen in the bottom of the resume graphic. This is where some of the close results for UT hurt, like the close call with Houston, Kansas State, and to some extent TCU/Iowa State. Oregon meanwhile has been murdering teams for most of the season, playing only close games against Texas Tech (early in season and yes, I acknowledge UT just blew them out) and Washington in the loss. That works in Oregon’s favor, but the differential on “eye test” is not greater than the substantial differential on “who you beat” which is why the Longhorn’s overall resume is so far ahead of the Duck’s resume.

 

 

 

Most likely Texas draws the short end of the stick and is left out, though by resume UT should be in the #3 spot. The committee justification to put Oregon ahead would be “avenging their loss” and “looking like the better team”, both of which would be true. Texas will not be afforded the opportunity to avenge their loss to Oklahoma, and Oregon does rate by the computers as the stronger team. The argument in favor of selecting Florida State will be that they are a 13-0 Power 5 Conference Champion. That’s about all they need to remain ahead of the Longhorns. Given Oklahoma State’s propensity to get blown out (see South Alabama and UCF) a Texas blowout is unlikely to move the needle of change the way the Longhorns need it to. This leaves us with a likely playoff of Georgia and Michigan in the #1/#2 slots, and Oregon/Florida State taking the #3/#4 spots in some order. We’ll see if that comes to pass, or if the winds of chaos blow in what has been the chalkiest season of the CFP era. Maybe we’ve been saving up the chaos for one final magnificent weekend of upheaval, or maybe chalk will hold again. Either way, we can’t wait to see how it all unfolds!

 

[Texasborn91 897]

24 minutes ago, LonghornSean said:

Good stuff here.

  Hide contents

The projected outcome this week is wins by Michigan, Georgia, Oregon, Texas and Florida State. This will leave us with an Oregon vs Texas debate with maybe a sprinkling of FSU thrown in. Here are the resumes for Texas and Oregon in full detail.

 

 

 

 

If we bucketize the raw resume we see the following:

 

• Wins over poor to average FBS teams (check): Oregon = 6, Texas = 6

• Wins over good FBS teams (!): Oregon = 3, Texas = 3

• Wins over great teams not named Alabama (star): Oregon = 1, Texas = 1

• Losses to teams slightly worse than them (x): Oregon = 1, Texas = 1

• 12th game: Oregon beats Portland State, Texas beats Alabama

The raw resume differential is essentially not that large if you traded Portland State for Alabama on Oregon’s resume. Still, that matters a great deal! Alabama losing to Texas is one of the most valuable results of the entire season. Oregon makes up for this raw resume differential by having the stronger team strength rating dispersion seen in the bottom of the resume graphic. This is where some of the close results for UT hurt, like the close call with Houston, Kansas State, and to some extent TCU/Iowa State. Oregon meanwhile has been murdering teams for most of the season, playing only close games against Texas Tech (early in season and yes, I acknowledge UT just blew them out) and Washington in the loss. That works in Oregon’s favor, but the differential on “eye test” is not greater than the substantial differential on “who you beat” which is why the Longhorn’s overall resume is so far ahead of the Duck’s resume.

 

 

 

Most likely Texas draws the short end of the stick and is left out, though by resume UT should be in the #3 spot. The committee justification to put Oregon ahead would be “avenging their loss” and “looking like the better team”, both of which would be true. Texas will not be afforded the opportunity to avenge their loss to Oklahoma, and Oregon does rate by the computers as the stronger team. The argument in favor of selecting Florida State will be that they are a 13-0 Power 5 Conference Champion. That’s about all they need to remain ahead of the Longhorns. Given Oklahoma State’s propensity to get blown out (see South Alabama and UCF) a Texas blowout is unlikely to move the needle of change the way the Longhorns need it to. This leaves us with a likely playoff of Georgia and Michigan in the #1/#2 slots, and Oregon/Florida State taking the #3/#4 spots in some order. We’ll see if that comes to pass, or if the winds of chaos blow in what has been the chalkiest season of the CFP era. Maybe we’ve been saving up the chaos for one final magnificent weekend of upheaval, or maybe chalk will hold again. Either way, we can’t wait to see how it all unfolds!

 

Their  best win is on par with our our 3rd best 

[Biggus Duckus 79]

40 minutes ago, Nivek said:

Oregon above Texas is a joke.  If I ran the playoff committee I would count every FCS game as a loss.  Bama is 10-2.  Oregon is 9-3.  You schedule these cupcakes you better win the conference or fuck right off.  

Hawaii is FCS now?

[Cairn Horn88 8170]

 

Bohls’ AP Top 25 ballot

1. Michigan 2. Georgia 3. Washington 4. Florida State 5. Oregon 6. Texas 7. Ohio State 8. Alabama 9. Ole Miss 10. LSU 11. Missouri 12. Arizona 13. Penn State 14. Louisville 15. Notre Dame 16. Oklahoma State 17. Oklahoma 18. Tulane 19. Iowa 20. Oregon State 21. North Carolina State 22. Clemson 23. James Madison 24. Liberty 25. Toledo

[Thetexashammer 1062]

Just now, Cairn Horn88 said:

 

Bohls’ AP Top 25 ballot

1. Michigan 2. Georgia 3. Washington 4. Florida State 5. Oregon 6. Texas 7. Ohio State 8. Alabama 9. Ole Miss 10. LSU 11. Missouri 12. Arizona 13. Penn State 14. Louisville 15. Notre Dame 16. Oklahoma State 17. Oklahoma 18. Tulane 19. Iowa 20. Oregon State 21. North Carolina State 22. Clemson 23. James Madison 24. Liberty 25. Toledo

Fuck that syphilis brained cunt.

[Dahobbs 17447]

1 minute ago, Cairn Horn88 said:

 

Bohls’ AP Top 25 ballot

1. Michigan 2. Georgia 3. Washington 4. Florida State 5. Oregon 6. Texas 7. Ohio State 8. Alabama 9. Ole Miss 10. LSU 11. Missouri 12. Arizona 13. Penn State 14. Louisville 15. Notre Dame 16. Oklahoma State 17. Oklahoma 18. Tulane 19. Iowa 20. Oregon State 21. North Carolina State 22. Clemson 23. James Madison 24. Liberty 25. Toledo

I'm shocked he didn't put Ohio state and Bama above us. Such a fucking cunt. 

[The_Great_Hornsby 3328]

15 minutes ago, Cairn Horn88 said:

 

Bohls’ AP Top 25 ballot

1. Michigan 2. Georgia 3. Washington 4. Florida State 5. Oregon 6. Texas 7. Ohio State 8. Alabama 9. Ole Miss 10. LSU 11. Missouri 12. Arizona 13. Penn State 14. Louisville 15. Notre Dame 16. Oklahoma State 17. Oklahoma 18. Tulane 19. Iowa 20. Oregon State 21. North Carolina State 22. Clemson 23. James Madison 24. Liberty 25. Toledo

PSA: He voted for Reggie Bush over Vince fucking Young for the Heisman. He is a complete fucking moron.

[UTEE97 3429]

2 hours ago, mdleast said:

The Athletic ran 16 playoff scenarios based on the conference championship games. Taking the 8 scenarios out where Texas loses, half of them show us in playoffs:

Predicting the College Football Playoff field: The 16 possible scenarios

Scenario 1: Georgia, Washington, FSU and Texas win.
1. Georgia (13-0)
2. Michigan (13-0)
3. Washington (13-0)
4. Florida State (13-0)
—
5. Texas (12-1)
Obviously, this one is as straightforward as it gets.

Scenario 3: Georgia, Washington, Louisville and Texas win.
1. Georgia (13-0)
2. Michigan (13-0)
3. Washington (13-0)
4. Texas (12-1)
—
5. Ohio State (11-1)
As a 12-1 conference champ, Texas gets the nod over Ohio State.

Scenario 5: Georgia, Oregon, FSU and Texas win.
1. Georgia (13-0)
2. Michigan (13-0)
3. Oregon (12-1)
4. Florida State (13-0)
—
5. Texas (12-1)
The committee has consistently placed one-loss Oregon above one-loss Texas despite the Horns arguably owning a better resume; so no reason to think that changes if the Ducks beat a 12-0 opponent in their last game. I even have them passing undefeated FSU.

Scenario 7: Georgia, Oregon, Louisville and Texas win.
1. Georgia (13-0)
2. Michigan (13-0)
3. Oregon (12-1)
4. Texas (12-1)
—
5. Washington (12-1)
Another tough call at No. 4, especially given Texas would have to move up three spots, but the Horns would be a conference champ and the Huskies would not.

Scenario 9: Alabama, Washington, Florida State and Texas win.
1. Michigan (13-0)
2. Washington (13-0)
3. Alabama (12-1)
4. Florida State (13-0)
—
5. Georgia (12-1)

Scenario 11: Alabama, Washington, Louisville and Texas win.
1. Michigan (13-0)
2. Washington (13-0)
3. Alabama (12-1)
4. Texas (12-1)
—
5. Georgia (12-1)
Texas vs. Georgia would be an absolutely maddening debate, but I again default to the conference champion. Especially since Texas won at Alabama.

Scenario 13: Alabama, Oregon, Florida State and Texas win.
1. Michigan (13-0)
2. Alabama (12-1)
3. Oregon (12-1)
4. Florida State (13-0)
—
5. Georgia (12-1)
Now, both one-loss Alabama and one-loss Oregon enter the picture. Georgia may claim to be better than Oregon, but Georgia would not have just beaten a 12-0 team.

Scenario 15: Alabama, Oregon, Louisville and Texas win.
1. Michigan (13-0)
2. Alabama (12-1)
3. Oregon (12-1)
4. Texas (12-1)
—
5. Georgia (12-1)
Same as Scenario 11, just with a different Pac-12 team.

All told, here’s how often each team gets in:
• Michigan: 16
• Georgia: 10
• Washington: 9
• Oregon: 8
• Alabama: 8
• FSU: 8
• Texas: 4
• Ohio State: 1

Note they don’t even entertain Michigan losing. Poor Iowa.

All of these scenarios show Bama above Texas if they win the SEC, as I have said many times here. In scenario 9, both Bama and UGA are above us. We really shouldn't want Bama to win the SEC. This will cause a lot of chaos/heartache for us. Since one SEC team is guaranteed, I much prefer that to be UGA. 

[dcar00 14035]

2 hours ago, Red Five said:

Iowa vs. FSU. Who you got.

FSU could take one of their DT's and put him at QB and they'd win.

[TexEx15 17482]

2 hours ago, Valmy77 said:

ESPN's playoff predictor thing: https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story/_/page/cfbplayoffpredictor/cfb-playoff-predictor

Says we have a 57% chance of being in if Bama beats Georgia and everything else goes chalk.

So there is that. I think Bama gets in ahead of us but maybe that is another path.

 

[Dahobbs 17447]

33 minutes ago, UTEE97 said:

All of these scenarios show Bama above Texas if they win the SEC, as I have said many times here. In scenario 9, both Bama and UGA are above us. We really shouldn't want Bama to win the SEC. This will cause a lot of chaos/heartache for us. Since one SEC team is guaranteed, I much prefer that to be UGA. 

You're wrong and worrying about something stupid. We have a better chance rooting for any and all undefeateds to lose. 

[oh_snap 694]

That Pate dork is trying waaaay too hard to build a subscriber base in the state of Texas. 

[jimmyjazz 45557]

Why do people get so wrapped around the axle over who they should "root" for?  I mean, I get it, it's nice to watch a game where you feel you have something on the line, but if this thread has taught anyone anything, it should be that nobody has one iota of a clue as to what the committee might do when the dust settles.  

I'm rooting for Texas.  I'll keep one eye on the other games, but other than Iowa and Louisville, I'm not "rooting" for anyone.  The one-loss clusterfuck will be real (and I hope we're in it).

[UTEE97 3429]

3 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

You're wrong and worrying about something stupid. We have a better chance rooting for any and all undefeateds to lose. 

What am I wrong about? Since the outcome is not yet known, how can you say I am wrong and you're right? I am willing to wager a bet that Bama will be ranked higher than us with a win over UGA.

[Dahobbs 17447]

Just now, UTEE97 said:

What am I wrong about? Since the outcome is not yet known, how can you say I am wrong and you're right? I am willing to wager a bet that Bama will be ranked higher than us with a win over UGA.

Of course it will be. But UGA will not be. Someone from the SEC will be in. We want it to be Bama to improve our chances. 

[UTEE97 3429]

2 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

Of course it will be. But UGA will not be. Someone from the SEC will be in. We want it to be Bama to improve our chances. 

I never said UGA will also be ranked higher than us. I said there is a chance that UGA may not fall that far. The rankings are not done by computers, so our chances don't improve with Bama winning another game. Most people already consider that win impressive. It's not like Rice unexpectedly winning their conference and giving our resume an unexpected boost.

[Dahobbs 17447]

Just now, UTEE97 said:

I never said UGA will also be ranked higher than us. I said there is a chance that UGA may not fall that far. The rankings are not done by computers, so our chances don't improve with Bama winning another game. Most people already consider that win impressive. It's not like Rice unexpectedly winning their conference and giving our resume an unexpected boost.

If Bama loses, we aren't going to get in over Oregon if that is what it comes down to. Only way we get in over Oregon is if Bama wins. There is also a very small chance we get in over Bama. Georgia will drop behind us, and that is all that matters. 

[Texas Jeff 1932]

3 hours ago, Valmy77 said:

ESPN's playoff predictor thing: https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story/_/page/cfbplayoffpredictor/cfb-playoff-predictor

Says we have a 57% chance of being in if Bama beats Georgia and everything else goes chalk.

So there is that. I think Bama gets in ahead of us but maybe that is another path.

I ran every permutation of that selector.

Per the ESPN playoff predictor, Texas is in with a Texas win and a Georgia, Michigan, or Florida State loss.

[troph 24562]

1 hour ago, TexEx15 said:

 

Shockingly most replies say Texas is in, and it’s an easy decision. I hope our PTSD has us blinded and HTH really does carry the day. 

[The_Great_Hornsby 3328]

13 minutes ago, troph said:

Shockingly most replies say Texas is in, and it’s an easy decision. I hope our PTSD has us blinded and HTH really does carry the day. 

They have respected it all year and in every ranking when they had opportunities to not do it, and they still did. It clearly carries weight with the committee, that cannot be debated. I think if Texas continues to look like a healthy team that has turned it on just in time for the playoffs and opens another can of whoopass this week, they wont put us behind Bama. 

Edited November 28, 2023 by The_Great_Hornsby

[Wilcox Cummingtonite 2869]

Laughable that y’all really think the committee won’t screw us any way they see fit. They can do whatever the fuck they want. Going to be lots of crow to eat on this thread if we get left out in favor of another 1 loss team. 
 

Only (realistic) way we get in is Louisville helps us out. Even then I really don’t have faith the committee will do the right thing. They’ll do whatever they feel like.

 

[ATXbronco 4060]

1 hour ago, jimmyjazz said:

Why do people get so wrapped around the axle over who they should "root" for?  I mean, I get it, it's nice to watch a game where you feel you have something on the line, but if this thread has taught anyone anything, it should be that nobody has one iota of a clue as to what the committee might do when the dust settles.  

I'm rooting for Texas.  I'll keep one eye on the other games, but other than Iowa and Louisville, I'm not "rooting" for anyone.  The one-loss clusterfuck will be real (and I hope we're in it).

Rooting for someone makes it more fun

• Friday 7PM CST root for Oregon to win a shitty game by one point
• Saturday 11AM root for Texas (well, yeah)
• Saturday 3PM root for Alabama to win a shitty game by one point
• Saturday 7PM root for Iowa 
• Saturday 7PM root for Louisville

I'm going to have to stock up on liquor for Saturday.
And it sucks that crappy ABC gets three of these big games.
Fuck ABC.

[BurgleBro 772]

Just caught Mark Ingrams stupid ass comments about Alabama getting in if they beat Georgia. 

He's obv so retarded with everything he says except the simple line "oh they'll leave the sec champ out? "

Which is so so undeniably true.  This CFP system was set from the start to help at least one hopefully 2 sec schools in every year. 

He and those entitled fans have every reason to feel so.. well entitled. 

 

Hopefully by some sick fucked up twist of fate the committee looks at us as an sec school if we're 1 loss conf Champs with that head to head win

[The_Great_Hornsby 3328]

6 minutes ago, Wilcox Cummingtonite said:

Laughable that y’all really think the committee won’t screw us any way they see fit. They can do whatever the fuck they want. Going to be lots of crow to eat on this thread if we get left out in favor of another 1 loss team. 
 

Only (realistic) way we get in is Louisville helps us out. Even then I really don’t have faith the committee will do the right thing. They’ll do whatever they feel like.

 

So your stance is that there is really no point to discuss anything because we are gonna get fucked over regardless because the committee will twist the rules any way they please. Cool, your opinion is on the record. Can we now make analytical discussions and comparisons between the teams in peace without you acting like you're the smartest guy in the room because you think the committee will 100% fuck us over for SEC SEC SEC. 

[Valmy77 13094]

9 minutes ago, Wilcox Cummingtonite said:

Laughable that y’all really think the committee won’t screw us any way they see fit. They can do whatever the fuck they want. Going to be lots of crow to eat on this thread if we get left out in favor of another 1 loss team. 
 

Only (realistic) way we get in is Louisville helps us out. Even then I really don’t have faith the committee will do the right thing. They’ll do whatever they feel like.

 

I agree but...it surprises me to see the influential narrative makers saying otherwise. 

[The_Great_Hornsby 3328]

3 minutes ago, Valmy77 said:

I agree but...it surprises me to see the influential narrative makers saying otherwise. 

Texas is honestly viewed by analysts as a team that can win it all. That carries weight. If we get the chance to dance, we can take it.

[troph 24562]

7 minutes ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

Texas is honestly viewed by analysts as a team that can win it all. That carries weight. If we get the chance to dance, we can take it.

There’s not a team above us that worries me. I was more worried about TCU and Iowa State than Michigan. I have no doubt everyone can get up for the playoffs and Texas playing focused is a sight to behold. Stop the run, balanced offense with a thoughtful game plan. Pass defense is the only weakness and that drastically improves when the refs aren’t big 12 refs. This team is built to beat Michigan, Georgia, Alabama and it can make Oregon one dimensional which then puts a hell of a lot of pressure on a QB to be perfect.

Edited November 28, 2023 by troph

[Wilcox Cummingtonite 2869]

9 minutes ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

So your stance is that there is really no point to discuss anything because we are gonna get fucked over regardless because the committee will twist the rules any way they please. Cool, your opinion is on the record. Can we now make analytical discussions and comparisons between the teams in peace without you acting like you're the smartest guy in the room because you think the committee will 100% fuck us over for SEC SEC SEC. 

Y’all can analyze this shit until your blue in the face but it means jack shit- just like my opinion.

Louisville beating FSU is our only realistic shot. This committee isn’t leaving out Georgia in any universe. They aren’t leaving out Bama if they beat Georgia. Wash/Oregon winner is in no matter what. Michigan isn’t losing to Iowa. 

Louisville needs to beat FSU. That’s the only way we get in. Anything else is fugazi.

[The_Great_Hornsby 3328]

1 minute ago, Wilcox Cummingtonite said:

Y’all can analyze this shit until your blue in the face but it means jack shit- just like my opinion.

Louisville beating FSU is our only realistic shot. This committee isn’t leaving out Georgia in any universe. They aren’t leaving out Bama if they beat Georgia. Wash/Oregon winner is in no matter what. Michigan isn’t losing to Iowa. 

Louisville needs to beat FSU. That’s the only way we get in. Anything else is fugazi.

Lol, riddle me this Mr. Georgia Dickriding Champion, what happens if Bama wins, FSU wins, Michigan wins, and Washington wins. I'll hang up and listen. 

[dcar00 14035]

10 minutes ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

Texas is honestly viewed by analysts as a team that can win it all. That carries weight. If we get the chance to dance, we can take it.

of course.  we should be considered the best 1 loss team in any logical scenario using data.  we have the toughest SOS and beat the only team that has a close SOS to us.  unfortunately these guys on the committe love the eye test because you know...because.

[mop 18]

I think you are right Wilcox....as much as I hate to admit it.

[Wilcox Cummingtonite 2869]

Just now, The_Great_Hornsby said:

Lol, riddle me this Mr. Georgia Dickriding Champion, what happens if Bama wins, FSU wins, Michigan wins, and Washington wins. I'll hang up and listen. 

Easy- FSU gets left out for Georgia in a controversial, yet defendable pick. They aren’t losing to Bama anyway so it’s moo.

[jimmyjazz 45557]

2 minutes ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

Lol, riddle me this Mr. Georgia Dickriding Champion, what happens if Bama wins, FSU wins, Michigan wins, and Washington wins. I'll hang up and listen. 

It's so fucking obvious.  The committee is gonna put 1-loss Georgia in over undefeated FSU, UM, or UDub?  Or (LOL) a 'bama team that just beat them?

People are overthinking these so-called concrete "rules" they think are in place, when in reality, most CFP selections have made sense over the years.  Not all, but most.  There is no conspiracy.

[The_Great_Hornsby 3328]

Just now, Wilcox Cummingtonite said:

Easy- FSU gets left out for Georgia in a controversial, yet defendable pick. They aren’t losing to Bama anyway so it’s moo.

You are a disengenuous stupid fuck, let me tell you that right now. That is not how it would go down and you know it. 

[Dahobbs 17447]

8 minutes ago, troph said:

There’s not a team above us that worries me. I was more worried about TCU and Iowa State than Michigan. I have no doubt everyone can get up for the playoffs and Texas playing focused is a sight to behold. Stop the run, balanced offense with a thoughtful game plan. Pass defense is the only weakness and that drastically improves when the refs aren’t big 12 refs. This team is built to beat Michigan, Georgia, Alabama and it can make Oregon one dimensional which then puts a hell of a lot of pressure on a QB to be perfect.

Yeah. Oddly enough, we matchup better with elite teams. Our worst potential playoff matchup would be Washington since it's willing to not run at all. 

[Wilcox Cummingtonite 2869]

Just now, The_Great_Hornsby said:

You are a disengenuous stupid fuck, let me tell you that right now. That is not how it would go down and you know it. 

Why so serious? It’s not that big of a deal dude. Chilllll.
 

The media/committee isn’t leaving out 2 time defending champ Georgia. ESPN owns the playoff. Not a chance they don’t let Georgia get a chance to 3-peat.

Again- Georgia isn’t losing to Bama so it doesn’t matter. 

[Hook1997 5287]

2 hours ago, TexEx15 said:

 

Whoever gets shut out should play #6 in the bowl game and #7 play #8 screw these conference rules.   Obviously next year it won’t be an issue.  

[troph 24562]

1 minute ago, Dahobbs said:

Yeah. Oddly enough, we matchup better with elite teams. Our worst potential playoff matchup would be Washington since it's willing to not run at all. 

I agree Washington and then Oregon are our two worst match ups of the top 8. 

[Left Coast 863]

 For those that say tomorrow’s rankings don’t matter, I’d say look at Oregon’s ranking vs Texas. If Oregon is still ranked above UT by the committee tomorrow, the door is closed on Texas taking Oregon’s place in the CFP. It will mean the Pac 12 Championship game is a play-in game.
 

If Texas is ranked above Oregon, there will at least be a chance. (Although of course the more likely path would still be the FSU loss and/or Bama win scenarios).

[wood 11148]

14 hours ago, The Dog said:

Pretty much everyone has warts.

Alabama at home against Arkansas and everyone remembers the USF game. 

Washington needed a pick six to beat Arizona State at home and struggled with Stanford.

Oregon needed a big comeback to beat Texas Tech (but they are actually decent)

Michigan's only close game other than Ohio State was Maryland.

Georgia struggled at Auburn but otherwise blew out everyone.

 

And FSU vs Florida, Miami, Clemson, and Boston College

[89Horn 1492]

7 hours ago, Coelenterate Fuccboi said:

But here in the real world, it’s not that easy at all.

The “real world” here doesn’t make the selections.

[Coelenterate Fuccboi 13010]

11 minutes ago, 89Horn said:

The “real world” here doesn’t make the selections.

Seems like you’re chasin that neon rainbow.

[C-Man 27052]

7 hours ago, mdleast said:

The Athletic ran 16 playoff scenarios based on the conference championship games. Taking the 8 scenarios out where Texas loses, half of them show us in playoffs:

Predicting the College Football Playoff field: The 16 possible scenarios

Scenario 1: Georgia, Washington, FSU and Texas win.
1. Georgia (13-0)
2. Michigan (13-0)
3. Washington (13-0)
4. Florida State (13-0)
—
5. Texas (12-1)
Obviously, this one is as straightforward as it gets.

Scenario 3: Georgia, Washington, Louisville and Texas win.
1. Georgia (13-0)
2. Michigan (13-0)
3. Washington (13-0)
4. Texas (12-1)
—
5. Ohio State (11-1)
As a 12-1 conference champ, Texas gets the nod over Ohio State.

Scenario 5: Georgia, Oregon, FSU and Texas win.
1. Georgia (13-0)
2. Michigan (13-0)
3. Oregon (12-1)
4. Florida State (13-0)
—
5. Texas (12-1)
The committee has consistently placed one-loss Oregon above one-loss Texas despite the Horns arguably owning a better resume; so no reason to think that changes if the Ducks beat a 12-0 opponent in their last game. I even have them passing undefeated FSU.

Scenario 7: Georgia, Oregon, Louisville and Texas win.
1. Georgia (13-0)
2. Michigan (13-0)
3. Oregon (12-1)
4. Texas (12-1)
—
5. Washington (12-1)
Another tough call at No. 4, especially given Texas would have to move up three spots, but the Horns would be a conference champ and the Huskies would not.

Scenario 9: Alabama, Washington, Florida State and Texas win.
1. Michigan (13-0)
2. Washington (13-0)
3. Alabama (12-1)
4. Florida State (13-0)
—
5. Georgia (12-1)

Scenario 11: Alabama, Washington, Louisville and Texas win.
1. Michigan (13-0)
2. Washington (13-0)
3. Alabama (12-1)
4. Texas (12-1)
—
5. Georgia (12-1)
Texas vs. Georgia would be an absolutely maddening debate, but I again default to the conference champion. Especially since Texas won at Alabama.

Scenario 13: Alabama, Oregon, Florida State and Texas win.
1. Michigan (13-0)
2. Alabama (12-1)
3. Oregon (12-1)
4. Florida State (13-0)
—
5. Georgia (12-1)
Now, both one-loss Alabama and one-loss Oregon enter the picture. Georgia may claim to be better than Oregon, but Georgia would not have just beaten a 12-0 team.

Scenario 15: Alabama, Oregon, Louisville and Texas win.
1. Michigan (13-0)
2. Alabama (12-1)
3. Oregon (12-1)
4. Texas (12-1)
—
5. Georgia (12-1)
Same as Scenario 11, just with a different Pac-12 team.

All told, here’s how often each team gets in:
• Michigan: 16
• Georgia: 10
• Washington: 9
• Oregon: 8
• Alabama: 8
• FSU: 8
• Texas: 4
• Ohio State: 1

Note they don’t even entertain Michigan losing. Poor Iowa.

Ridiculous that Bama "gets in" in eight scenarios versus four for Texas, a team that will have an identical record, a conference championship and a 10-point victory in Tuscaloosa.

 

9 hours ago, dcar00 said:

TCU did get shadeur'd but it would have just meant going bowling.  They had to be the luckiest team in college football in a decade.  the Michigan win is still a stunner I have to admit.  They were living on borrowed time.

TCU only one that game because they were tipped off about Michigan's sign-stealing and totally reworked their signs in the three weeks going into the semifinal game. Even with that in their favor, the Frogs barely hung on.

[Hank_Hill 18490]

4 hours ago, Wilcox Cummingtonite said:

Why so serious? It’s not that big of a deal dude. Chilllll.
 

The media/committee isn’t leaving out 2 time defending champ Georgia. ESPN owns the playoff. Not a chance they don’t let Georgia get a chance to 3-peat.

Again- Georgia isn’t losing to Bama so it doesn’t matter. 

They aren’t putting a conference loser in. Stop being an idiot. 
 

But yea Georgia gonna roll Bama