THE College Football Playoff Rankings Thread [MICH,WASH,TEX,ALA]

[C-Man 27,779]

1 minute ago, LateAughtsHorn said:

I'm still not convinced we make it to Arlington. But if there is a 1 loss conference champion Texas, who is to say we don't get the nod over Oregon for pure novelty sake? Oregon has a good brand, but I can't imagine they bring Texas numbers from a viewership perspective. Especially since they have been to the playoff and Texas would be a first timer.

Not saying that would be the right decision, but it illustrates the problem with this process. Nobody knows. At the end of the day, it comes down to how they feel at the moment. 

Sure, 1-loss Texas could ultimately get the nod over 1-loss Oregon in a beauty contest. The ultimate nightmare scenario is that Washington, Michigan/Ohio State, Georgia and FSU win out -- which is possible however unlikely -- and then there's no room for a 1-loss team. Where it gets dicey is if we're talking about a bunch of 1-loss teams due to a 30-car pileup the final weekend or two -- say Ohio State or Michigan suffers a first loss in the Big 10 Champ Game and Bama wins out and beats Georgia in SEC Champ, etc. I think FSU is out if they lose anywhere between now and Selection Sunday. I don't think they'll be a worthy 1-loss team compared to the others that would be there.

[C-Man 27,779]

3 minutes ago, TheBryMan81 said:

Their best/only good win is.... On the road at #18 Utah.

Oregon's resume is painfully thin now that USC, this week's opponent, has shit the bed. IMO, the Ducks winning out including a win over Washington in the Pac-12 title game shouldn't look better than a potential 1-loss Texas with a Big 12 title and a road win over Bama when the dust settles.

[JBJ 3,826]

The only 1-loss team with a better resume than Texas would be if UW lost to UO, but won the rematch in Pac-CCG.

[sidis 10,016]

41 minutes ago, GreenspointTexas said:

Only 530 miles west of Sinton but whatever

[C-Man 27,779]

34 minutes ago, JBJ said:

The only 1-loss team with a better resume than Texas would be if UW lost to UO, but won the rematch in Pac-CCG.

You mean if Oregon beats Washington in a rematch in the Pac-12 Champ Game, assuming that happens?

[JBJ 3,826]

11 minutes ago, C-Man said:

You mean if Oregon beats Washington in a rematch in the Pac-12 Champ Game, assuming that happens?

Oh fuck me.  Oregon beating UW in a rematch CCG.  Because avenging your 1-loss should matter imo.  It's not undefeated but it's not quite 1-loss either.

Edited November 8, 2023 by JBJ

[mvlonghorns 287]

I don't think a 12-1 Oregon would have a better resume than a 12-1 Texas. The fact that they are ranked above us now is plain stupid as they only have one win vs a currently ranked team (Utah). We have three (Bama, KU, KSU).

 

Another thing to consider is Texas will bring better ratings to a playoff game than Oregon would, so ESPN will definitely be putting pressure on the committee to select us over Oregon if it comes down to it.

[nbmishoid 989]

They are ranked above us because we are playing like crap and look poised to lose the next game MM starts.  Change that picture and we can resume comparing records, etc.

[LonghornSean 4,103]

Yeah I think recent style points are the main reason Oregon is ahead of us. It’s still bullshit given their fewer quality wins, but not surprising.

[immamac 44,343]

8 minutes ago, mvlonghorns said:

I don't think a 12-1 Oregon would have a better resume than a 12-1 Texas. The fact that they are ranked above us now is plain stupid as they only have one win vs a currently ranked team (Utah). We have three (Bama, KU, KSU).

 

Another thing to consider is Texas will bring better ratings to a playoff game than Oregon would, so ESPN will definitely be putting pressure on the committee to select us over Oregon if it comes down to it.

and either OU or OSU or Kansas again. You guys keep discounting the Big XII CCG - it's a big ranked game unlike the other shit ass conferences. 

[HRSchenker 2,341]

Did last year not teach us that the rankings before conference championship week are meaningless? TCU lost the conference championship game and didn't drop from 3rd. LSU lost the SEC championship game and dropped 3 spots. Alabama didn't play in the SEC championship game and moved up 1. The committee makes it up as they go along.

[Pimphand 6,369]

21 minutes ago, immamac said:

and either OU or OSU or Kansas again. You guys keep discounting the Big XII CCG - it's a big ranked game unlike the other shit ass conferences. 

OSU is basically a lock the question becomes who of UT, KSU, & OU matchup against them.

Edited November 8, 2023 by Pimphand

[WBT 20,972]

2 hours ago, Texasborn91 said:

You just contradicted yourself. Texas has to win out and let things work themselves out? If Texas is sitting at 5 then yes we control our destiny… that’s not the case as of now. The committee looked at things currently standing and have determined Oregon to be a better team. Not saying I don’t think someone will lose but it’s a legit concern. Oregon can only bolster their resume, we likely have 1 more opportunity (CCG). 

That doesn't mean they'll keep Oregon above us.  All of these ratings until the last one are a tv show for espn.  They don't mean shit.

[irishtexan 11,712]

17 minutes ago, immamac said:

and either OU or OSU or Kansas again. You guys keep discounting the Big XII CCG - it's a big ranked game unlike the other shit ass conferences. 

The only other conferences that apply to this conversation are Big14, the PAC2 and SEC. For the Big14, whoever wins the OSU/MI game will likely win the conference and leave one very strong one-loss team in the mix for the playoffs. Whoever plays in PAC2 and SEC championship games will face a higher-quality opponent than whomever we theoretically play in our championship game. Washington, Oregon, Bama and Georgia are the presumptive favorites to make their championship game, and all are ranked in the top 8. OK State, OU and Kansas are far, far below with no chance to move up in the polls. Our conference championship game will not give us a statistical boost over a one-loss team that wins either other conference.  

 

[Nicole44 22,310]

Listening to a bunch of programs and following along with this thread: jmo, best chance is if Florida State falls out. Doesn’t win their CC. That Washington wins out and dispatches Oregon again. Obviously we would win out. The hope is that a Meatchikin v Ohio State cancels one of them out or one of them drops a game and also loses their CC. Then it’s smooth sailing. Lol…sailing 

This is why you don’t drop a game in the regular season to an average OU squad. But…if we win out and Ohio State drops a game or two…damnit why did we lose to BlowU?

Edited November 8, 2023 by Nicole44

[hook me 2,163]

21 minutes ago, HRSchenker said:

Did last year not teach us that the rankings before conference championship week are meaningless? TCU lost the conference championship game and didn't drop from 3rd. LSU lost the SEC championship game and dropped 3 spots. Alabama didn't play in the SEC championship game and moved up 1. The committee makes it up as they go along.

That's because USC lost the PAC12 championship. Had USC beaten Utah TCU would have dropped out of the CFP & USC would have been 3rd. They wanted to avoid a OSU/UM rematch in the semifinal so everything was going to stay put once USC lost

[troph 25,224]

5 hours ago, LonghornSean said:

I’m not so sure. I bet it’s more about Oregon earning more style points lately by blowing teams out while we’ve had a couple of close calls.

Beyond the NUMBER of losses, the committee usually weighs who you’ve beaten more heavily than who you’ve lost to. See Oklahoma State, who holds a 33-7 loss to South Alabama, and moved way up after beating OU.

I think the margin of victory is a factor yes. I think the perception the Pac 12 is stronger too and losing on a last play to a still undefeated. 

 

5 hours ago, Woodrow Call said:

Yeah, that's right. But it of course depends on the magnitude of the Georgia loss. Probably will be close, but you never know. Maybe the Trojans defense gets their act together and beats Oregon. They'll definitely change things up defensively in their next two games. 

I think we need an Oregon loss and a Wa loss. I don't know that FSU will lose.

[Pimphand 6,369]

6 minutes ago, Nicole44 said:

This is why you don’t drop a game in the regular season to an average OU squad. But I’d we win out and Ohio State drops a game or two…damnit why did we lose to BlowU?

Was the perfect storm of stupid....  team came out flat and dug an early hole, some terrible play calling, clock management disaster, and then the killshot was the horrific officiating.  Total team effort to pick up that L.

[immamac 44,343]

1 minute ago, Pimphand said:

Was the perfect storm of stupid....  team came out flat and dug an early hole, some terrible play calling, clock management disaster, and then the killshot was the horrific officiating.  Total team effort to pick up that L.

the officiating was not the issue at all in that game. 

[troph 25,224]

4 hours ago, HenryJames said:

Who is their good win?

south austin's mom?

[Pimphand 6,369]

1 minute ago, immamac said:

the officiating was not the issue at all in that game. 

You must have seen a different game.  They missed two blatant facemask calls including Sark's dumass ill fated 4th and goal at the 1 sneak.

It definitely played a part in the loss though had Texas not had their heads up their asses it wouldn't have mattered.

[hook me 2,163]

5 minutes ago, Pimphand said:

Was the perfect storm of stupid....  team came out flat and dug an early hole, some terrible play calling, clock management disaster, and then the killshot was the horrific officiating.  Total team effort to pick up that L.

By all means, let's spend the next 2-3 pages dissecting everything that went wrong since that hasn't been done yet

[Biff Tannen 46,164]

7 minutes ago, hook me said:

By all means, let's spend the next 2-3 pages dissecting everything that went wrong since that hasn't been done yet

You new here?

[Nicole44 22,310]

The committee doesn’t have as much love for Georgia right now. I’m thinking though the best thing is for them to beat Bama in their CC if that’s the matchup. Bama beating them makes it more difficult for us I think even though we have a win over them. I think the committee would like for us to be in it. I can only see my weekends being the following:

Rooting for Texas (always) to win out. 

Rooting for FSU to lose a regular season game and for ACC to not be in playoffs. Go Miami Go! 

Hoping somehow that Ohio state/Michigan loses a game and their CC so only one team can advance. Loser gets a  top tier bowl.

Hoping that Washington wins out so there is no one else to consider from the now demolished Pac12. Oregon just gets a top tier bowl. 
 

So Texas, Washington, Georgia and probably Meatchikin. I do think the committee would like two Big10 guys so I hope one of them loses one of their next three games and their CCG. 
 

 

[C-Man 27,779]

1 hour ago, immamac said:

and either OU or OSU or Kansas again. You guys keep discounting the Big XII CCG - it's a big ranked game unlike the other shit ass conferences. 

The only conference championship game that will probably qualify as "shit-ass" is the Big 10's with the West "winner" Iowa (probably) getting eviscerated by Michigan, Penn State or Ohio State. The Pac-12 could be undefeated Washington vs 1-loss Oregon, the SEC should be 1-loss Bama against undefeated Georgia and the ACC will be undefeated FSU against potential 1-loss Louisville. I *hope* the Big 12 is 1-loss Texas vs 1-loss Oklahoma State.

[irishtexan 11,712]

2 minutes ago, C-Man said:

The only conference championship game that will probably qualify as "shit-ass" is the Big 10's with the West "winner" Iowa (probably) getting eviscerated by Michigan, Penn State or Ohio State. The Pac-12 could be undefeated Washington vs 1-loss Oregon, the SEC should be 1-loss Bama against undefeated Georgia and the ACC will be undefeated FSU against potential 1-loss Louisville. I *hope* the Big 12 is 1-loss Texas vs 1-loss Oklahoma State.

OK State has two losses already. 

[C-Man 27,779]

1 minute ago, irishtexan said:

OK State has two losses already. 

Shit, my bad. 2-loss Oklahoma State (one conference loss). Our Big 12 Game won't be as "marquee" as the SEC or Pac-12 (if they shape out the way I think) or perhaps even the ACC champ games will.

[Js1 87,181]

41 minutes ago, hook me said:

By all means, let's spend the next 2-3 pages dissecting everything that went wrong since that hasn't been done yet

[dec3169 556]

1 hour ago, WBT said:

That doesn't mean they'll keep Oregon above us.  All of these ratings until the last one are a tv show for espn.  They don't mean shit.

A full hour full of shit.  All they really need to do is something similar to a PowerBall drawing.  Put the chart on the screen, announce the order for people that can't see, and go to commercial.

[hook me 2,163]

58 minutes ago, Nicole44 said:

The committee doesn’t have as much love for Georgia right now. I’m thinking though the best thing is for them to beat Bama in their CC if that’s the matchup. Bama beating them makes it more difficult for us I think even though we have a win over them. I think the committee would like for us to be in it. I can only see my weekends being the following:

Rooting for Texas (always) to win out. 

Rooting for FSU to lose a regular season game and for ACC to not be in playoffs. Go Miami Go! 

Hoping somehow that Ohio state/Michigan loses a game and their CC so only one team can advance. Loser gets a  top tier bowl.

Hoping that Washington wins out so there is no one else to consider from the now demolished Pac12. Oregon just gets a top tier bowl. 
 

So Texas, Washington, Georgia and probably Meatchikin. I do think the committee would like two Big10 guys so I hope one of them loses one of their next three games and their CCG. 
 

 

The committee isn't going to put a non-conference champion in over Texas if we win the Big 12 and are sitting at 12-1. There's only going to be 1 team per conference in the CFP this year but, like many people were screaming about from the moment it was announced, when there are only 4 spots for 5 power conferences someone is bound to be left out if every conference has a viable option. There's still plenty of ball to play but we need to win out (preferably more convincingly than we have been winning) &:

FSU to lose any game or

The Pac 12 champion to have a loss or

The Big 10 champion to have a loss.

Any of those things happening would give the committee all it needs to move UT to 4th. The only question would be Oregon winning out. They'd have good wins @ Utah, Pac 12 championship vs. UW (avenging their only loss), & OSU. I don't know what the committee does with that compared to us winning @ Bama, vs. KU, vs. KSU, & the Big 12 championship

undefeated or 1 loss SEC champion is in (UGA/Bama). The only scenario I could see the SEC being left out is if either UGA or Bama is a 2 loss SEC champion which seems highly unlikely. Bama would have to lose to Auburn & then beat UGA. UGA would have to drop 2 of 3 between Tenn., OM, GT, & then beat Bama.

 

 

[dec3169 556]

40 minutes ago, C-Man said:

Shit, my bad. 2-loss Oklahoma State (one conference loss). Our Big 12 Game won't be as "marquee" as the SEC or Pac-12 (if they shape out the way I think) or perhaps even the ACC champ games will.

We will have played 5 games against ranked teams when all is said and done.  So far it was Bama (W), Kansas (W), OU (L), K-State (W), and likely upcoming OSU.

Georgia will probably have 5, tOSU 3 or 4, Michigan will only have 3, FSU 3, Louisville 3, Washington 5, Oregon 5, Bama 5, Penn State 3 or 4, and Ole Miss 4.

This includes CCGs.  I think with our SOC and SOR as long as we win out we should be golden.  PSU, Louisville, and Ole Miss I don't think are in it.  Washington has 2 ranked games coming up and Oregon has 1, plus both will probably play each other again.  FSU has Miami and Florida (and FCS North Alabama) and a CCG.  Oregon State will actually play 5 ranked teams as well but they still play Washington and Oregon.  Barring a miracle they are out.

My guess (in no particular order) is tOSU, UGA, Washington or FSU, Texas.  I don't see 4 undefeated teams left, and maybe not 3.  Probably just tOSU and UGA.

[ChickenNuggets 1,661]

1 hour ago, Nicole44 said:

The committee doesn’t have as much love for Georgia right now. I’m thinking though the best thing is for them to beat Bama in their CC if that’s the matchup. Bama beating them makes it more difficult for us I think even though we have a win over them. I think the committee would like for us to be in it. I can only see my weekends being the following:

Rooting for Texas (always) to win out. 

Rooting for FSU to lose a regular season game and for ACC to not be in playoffs. Go Miami Go! 

Hoping somehow that Ohio state/Michigan loses a game and their CC so only one team can advance. Loser gets a  top tier bowl.

Hoping that Washington wins out so there is no one else to consider from the now demolished Pac12. Oregon just gets a top tier bowl. 
 

So Texas, Washington, Georgia and probably Meatchikin. I do think the committee would like two Big10 guys so I hope one of them loses one of their next three games and their CCG. 
 

 

I agree for the most part with the exception of Bama/Georgia title game. I do think we need Bama to win out. We have the head to head and it was on their home turf. That will account for a lot if they win out and become the SeC champs/

[Hank_Hill 20,037]

5 hours ago, Pancho said:

People said the same thing about Houston. 

Iowa State is our toughest game remaining. It’s in Ames, they want nothing more than to beat big bad Texas on our way out the door, night game, and you can bet they will pull out every play they have in the book to beat us just one last time. They will be playing out of their minds just to beat us a last time, especially as a CFP favorite. They’ll be playing that game where they derailed Oklahoma State’s BCS hopes on loop the week of our game—bet. 

I think people need to get out of their heads that that game is an auto-win. 

I mean this is all fun intangible stuff to think about I guess but they’re a shitty 5-4 football team and their potential motivation doesn’t change that. Ewers back we should roll.

[dec3169 556]

2 minutes ago, ChickenNuggets said:

I agree for the most part with the exception of Bama/Georgia title game. I do think we need Bama to win out. We have the head to head and it was on their home turf. That will account for a lot if they win out and become the SeC champs/

I could see that going either way.  Bama losing to UGA in CCG probably doesn't drop them out of the top 10.  The streaks we broke in Tuscaloosa shine big for NCAAF this year and probably the CFP committee as well.  I don't think that will get discounted unless we shit the bed.

[Pancho 46,301]

29 minutes ago, Hank_Hill said:

I mean this is all fun intangible stuff to think about I guess but they’re a shitty 5-4 football team and their potential motivation doesn’t change that. Ewers back we should roll.

And I’ll maintain the same thing was said about the UH game. 

We haven’t “rolled” anyone really all year. 

[Js1 87,181]

Just now, Pancho said:

And I’ll maintain the same thing was said about the UH game. 

We haven’t “rolled” anyone really all year. 

BYU and Baylor.  No, we didn’t score 70 and win by 40 but 38-6 and 35-6 and we were never in danger of losing. 

[Frank Drebin 5,834]

Is 40-14 against KU not a beatdown?  One of their TDs was a fluke off a force fumble.

[Vic Mackey 47,953]

We really need Florida St to somehow lose a game. I don't see them with 1 loss getting in over us.

Ohio St/Michigan take care of each other.

Bama/Georgia take care of each other.

Oregon/Washington take care of each other.

As of now, the winner of those games above get in. That leaves 1 spot for us and Florida St. If they go unbeaten, they obviously aren't getting left out.

 

[Pancho 46,301]

4 minutes ago, Js1 said:

BYU and Baylor.  No, we didn’t score 70 and win by 40 but 38-6 and 35-6 and we were never in danger of losing. 

 

1 minute ago, Frank Drebin said:

Is 40-14 against KU not a beatdown?  One of their TDs was a fluke off a force fumble.

 

I think if either of those were “rolled” in any way, we’d be ahead of Oregon right now. 

 

[Js1 87,181]

2 minutes ago, Pancho said:

I think if either of those were “rolled” in any way, we’d be ahead of Oregon right now. 

Probably/maybe not. We haven’t had the signature post-loss big blowout win against a ranked team yet - mostly bc now we are playing without Quinn. If we didn’t blow a 27-7 lead on Saturday, that might have been the one to flip us above them. 

Oregon is kind of coasting on that huge win at ranked Utah 2 weeks after their loss. 

[Hank_Hill 20,037]

Not thinking 3+ TD wins over P5 opponents are dominant wins is certainly a take I guess. 

[vandergriff 105]

So what happens if it looks like this in a few weeks:

Mich/ OSU winner 13-0

FSU 13-0

Washington 13-0 

Alabama 12-1 with SEC CCG win over Georgia

Texas 12-1 Big 12 Champs

Does the committee leave out the SEC champion or Texas who beat them back in September?

I can hear those suits saying something like " well that game was 3 months ago and Alabama just beat Georgia so..."

 

[heso 2,863]

3 hours ago, hook me said:

The committee isn't going to put a non-conference champion in over Texas if we win the Big 12 and are sitting at 12-1. There's only going to be 1 team per conference in the CFP this year but, like many people were screaming about from the moment it was announced, when there are only 4 spots for 5 power conferences someone is bound to be left out if every conference has a viable option. There's still plenty of ball to play but we need to win out (preferably more convincingly than we have been winning) &:

FSU to lose any game or

The Pac 12 champion to have a loss or

The Big 10 champion to have a loss.

Any of those things happening would give the committee all it needs to move UT to 4th. The only question would be Oregon winning out. They'd have good wins @ Utah, Pac 12 championship vs. UW (avenging their only loss), & OSU. I don't know what the committee does with that compared to us winning @ Bama, vs. KU, vs. KSU, & the Big 12 championship

undefeated or 1 loss SEC champion is in (UGA/Bama). The only scenario I could see the SEC being left out is if either UGA or Bama is a 2 loss SEC champion which seems highly unlikely. Bama would have to lose to Auburn & then beat UGA. UGA would have to drop 2 of 3 between Tenn., OM, GT, & then beat Bama.

 

 

The big ten east had half of the top 6 before any of them had a loss. If the home team wins each of those games, whoever lucks out with the tie breaker isn’t getting left out. 

[hook me 2,163]

14 hours ago, heso said:

The big ten east had half of the top 6 before any of them had a loss. If the home team wins each of those games, whoever lucks out with the tie breaker isn’t getting left out. 

I could see OSU getting in because of their resume but UM & PSU have played nobody & the Harbaugh scandal would just be an added weight around their neck. I don't see either of those 2 teams getting in ahead of a 1 loss Texas or Oregon/Washington. OSU may because of their win vs. ND but the committee may not forgive their lack of ranked wins combined with the late loss.

[heso 2,863]

20 minutes ago, hook me said:

I could see OSU getting in because of their resume but UM & PSU have played nobody & the Harbaugh scandal would just be an added weight around their neck. I don't see either of those 2 teams getting in ahead of a 1 loss Texas or Oregon/Washington. OSU may because of their win vs. ND but the committee may not forgive their lack of ranked wins combined with the late loss.

Whichever team made it out of those 3 would have the best win and the best loss in the country. They aren’t getting left out. 

[Js1 87,181]

15 hours ago, vandergriff said:

So what happens if it looks like this in a few weeks:

Mich/ OSU winner 13-0

FSU 13-0

Washington 13-0 

Alabama 12-1 with SEC CCG win over Georgia

Texas 12-1 Big 12 Champs

Does the committee leave out the SEC champion or Texas who beat them back in September?

I can hear those suits saying something like " well that game was 3 months ago and Alabama just beat Georgia so..."

 

Wow no one has considered this hypothetical over the past several pages 

[joeycovers 399]

I’m confused on why it’s assumed we jump a 1 loss Oregon. The committee for whatever reason have them above us now. Adding a win over Oregon St and Washington is better than B12 championship game. 
 

How could they justify us jumping them at any point the rest of the way if they haven’t already? 

[joeycovers 399]

I don’t watch the CFB selection show but at any point have they mentioned UT is still winning games with its backup QB playing the last 2.5 games? 
 

If that happened to some of these other contenders not sure they could say the same. 
 

Mich probably the only exception. 

[Ojo Rojo 2,053]

Can I just say how epically dumb it is to pick playoff teams by committee.  Thank you.

[hook me 2,163]

1 hour ago, heso said:

Whichever team made it out of those 3 would have the best win and the best loss in the country. They aren’t getting left out. 

We'll have to agree to disagree on this. I don't see the CFPC letting UM or PSU in having only played 2 good opponents all year & losing one of them & I think OSU would be on thin ice & it may be a beauty contest between 1 loss OSU/UT &/or UO or UW. I hope it happens so we'll see.