THE College Football Playoff Rankings Thread [MICH,WASH,TEX,ALA]

[52-80 19090]

The point in having a ranked multi-team playoff is that the lower you go, the less important that place is. 

IF Alabama beats Georgia -- by any manner with any margin you can imagine -- whether Georgia is more or less deserving than Texas for the last spot is not that important in the CFP universe.

In the 9 year history of the CFP, the top 2 seeds have won 66% of the championships.

 

[troph 24562]

In those same 9 years there hasn’t been this kind of log jam at the top. The top 7-8 teams are all pretty damn good (FSU probably the exception with the QB injury). 

Edited November 28, 2023 by troph

[gmr548 16511]

All the talking heads opinion that the B12 is the worst conference while the PAC is the 3rd or possibly 2nd best conference this year is certainly a take.  
Just about everyone I’ve heard on radio and TV are saying UO/UW is a play-in game.  
 
PAC is the pyrite conference skating by on early OOC games that were fools gold.  Best OOC win, UO over Tech by 8?  
 And fuck giving teams credit for ranked wins based on where they were ranked… I get giving a team a loss lowers their ranking, but App St did not beat the #6 team last year.  
 

I made a longer post on this earlier, but let’s just say Texas lives in a glass house when it comes to calling out the strength of other conferences. The Big 12 is utter dogshit this year and its profile is no better (and probably a little worse) than the PAC.

[gmr548 16511]

 For those that say tomorrow’s rankings don’t matter, I’d say look at Oregon’s ranking vs Texas. If Oregon is still ranked above UT by the committee tomorrow, the door is closed on Texas taking Oregon’s place in the CFP. It will mean the Pac 12 Championship game is a play-in game.
 
If Texas is ranked above Oregon, there will at least be a chance. (Although of course the more likely path would still be the FSU loss and/or Bama win scenarios).

Oregon will be ranked above Texas tonight. They just beat a ranked rival by 24. The only way Texas conceivably jumps them if they win this week is with a dominant CCG win paired with an Alabama win over Georgia and another last-play type game with Washington that happens to go Oregon’s way.

[utee94 15745]

5 hours ago, C-Man said:

TCU only one that game because they were tipped off about Michigan's sign-stealing and totally reworked their signs in the three weeks going into the semifinal game. Even with that in their favor, the Frogs barely hung on.

So the only reason TCU won, is because they were on an even playing field, rather than one that was tilted heavily in Michigan's favor through cheating?  Okay...

[Horndog 2218]

7 hours ago, Left Coast said:

 For those that say tomorrow’s rankings don’t matter, I’d say look at Oregon’s ranking vs Texas. If Oregon is still ranked above UT by the committee tomorrow, the door is closed on Texas taking Oregon’s place in the CFP. It will mean the Pac 12 Championship game is a play-in game.
 

If Texas is ranked above Oregon, there will at least be a chance. (Although of course the more likely path would still be the FSU loss and/or Bama win scenarios).

Most likely. But it is also possible they recalibrate after the CG games. If Bama beats Georgia, Texas's win over Bama gains significance. If Oregon is ahead tonight I think we need to root like hell for Bama.

[Vic Mackey 46936]

Oregon will be ranked above Texas tonight. They just beat a ranked rival by 24. The only way Texas conceivably jumps them if they win this week is with a dominant CCG win paired with an Alabama win over Georgia and another last-play type game with Washington that happens to go Oregon’s way.

Oregon being above Texas makes no sense at all. What is Oregon best win? Oregon State? Texas beat Alabama on the road. Common opponent is Texas Tech. Oregon escaped in a nail biter. Texas beat them by 50.

[BigHornedLurker 1894]

13 minutes ago, Horndog said:

Most likely. But it is also possible they recalibrate after the CG games. If Bama beats Georgia, Texas's win over Bama gains significance. If Oregon is ahead tonight I think we need to root like hell for Bama.

You're thinking logically like me , the committee isn't holden to such ideals 

[dcar00 14035]

39 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

I made a longer post on this earlier, but let’s just say Texas lives in a glass house when it comes to calling out the strength of other conferences. The Big 12 is utter dogshit this year and its profile is no better (and probably a little worse) than the PAC.

surprisingly, after all the games have been played, the Big 12 is not utter dogshit this year.  our SOS bears this out.  PAC is actually utter dogshit and ACC sucks as well.  

[Js1 85109]

I am catching up after being mostly offline all day yesterday due to moving.  Seems to be:

"the committee will do X" 

NO YOU'RE STUPID, THE COMMITTEE WON'T DO THAT! YOU HAVE NO IDEA! THEY CAN DO WHAT THEY WANT! 

"the committee will do Y"

NO YOU'RE STUPID, THE COMMITTEE WON'T DO THAT! YOU HAVE NO IDEA! THEY CAN DO WHAT THEY WANT! 

[Horndog 2218]

7 minutes ago, BigHornedLurker said:

You're thinking logically like me , the committee isn't holden to such ideals 

If Bama, Texas, and UO end up as the 3 teams being considered, the committee can avoid the entire Texas/Bama controversy by taking them both. They can justify it by saying the win at Bama is better than UO splitting with UW.

[dcar00 14035]

I find it humorous that of the potential conf champs(Texas, Ore, Bama) with one loss after next Saturday the resumes will look like this

SOS - best will be Texas

Texas will have beaten Bama H2H

common opponent favors Texas over Oregon

Everyone says that Ore will have beaten an undefeated Wash, but we will have beaten an undefeated Bama, who beat the 2 time champs.

yet no scenario has Texas as the top of the 3 because....?

 

 

Edited November 28, 2023 by dcar00

[HornOnTheBayou 8881]

49 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

I made a longer post on this earlier, but let’s just say Texas lives in a glass house when it comes to calling out the strength of other conferences. The Big 12 is utter dogshit this year and its profile is no better (and probably a little worse) than the PAC.

But overall conference strength shouldn't be an issue. The whole Big XII versus the whole Pac 12 isn't the question. It's the overall strength of the teams Texas played. We played all the top teams in the conference and missed a lot of the bottom half.

Edited November 28, 2023 by HornOnTheBayou

[ITHorn 797]

4 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

surprisingly, after all the games have been played, the Big 12 is not utter dogshit this year.  our SOS bears this out.  PAC is actually utter dogshit and ACC sucks as well.  

Yep. Oregon and Washington both have worse SOS that is only propped up by playing each other.

[Blotto 23434]

15 minutes ago, Vic Mackey said:

44 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

Oregon will be ranked above Texas tonight. They just beat a ranked rival by 24. The only way Texas conceivably jumps them if they win this week is with a dominant CCG win paired with an Alabama win over Georgia and another last-play type game with Washington that happens to go Oregon’s way.

Oregon being above Texas makes no sense at all. What is Oregon best win? Oregon State? Texas beat Alabama on the road. Common opponent is Texas Tech. Oregon escaped in a nail biter. Texas beat them by 50.

The rationale has to be that their only loss is to an undefeated  UW, while our loss is to OU who has 2 losses themselves. The reality is that both teams are pretty damn close. This matrix of rankings shows how their positions flip back and forth depending on whatever criteria a particular computer poll emphasizes. 

https://masseyratings.com/ranks

[Js1 85109]

4 minutes ago, HornOnTheBayou said:

But overall conference strength shouldn't be an issue. The whole Big XII versus the whole Pac 12 isn't the question. It's the overall strength of the teams Texas played. We played all the top teams in the conference and missed a lot of the bottom half.

It shouldn’t be a conf strength argument bc of unbalanced schedules. Besides, ACC has 79% of its league as bowl eligible, PAC 67% and Big 12/SEC tied at 64%

[Huckleberry 32701]

47 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

I made a longer post on this earlier, but let’s just say Texas lives in a glass house when it comes to calling out the strength of other conferences. The Big 12 is utter dogshit this year and its profile is no better (and probably a little worse) than the PAC.

Well your longer post is also incorrect.

Massey - 1.) SEC 7.99 2.) Pac-12 7.85 3.) Big 12 7.85 4.) Big 10 7.80 5.) ACC 7.61

So virtual tie for 2nd

Sagarin (combining divisions)  - 1.) SEC 80.09 2.) Big 12 78.28 3.) Pac-12 78.08 4.) Big 10 76.55 5.) ACC 73.91

This is the theme. SEC is first, Big 12 is second along with the Pac-12, then Big 10 and ACC in clear 4th and 5th, respectively. "The Big 12 is utter dogshit" is a stupid and verifiably false statement that is itself utter dogshit.

[The_Great_Hornsby 3328]

Tonight's rankings will tell us a lot about the mind of the committee. Will Florida State be #4? If not, then they are opening the door a little bit for them to be passed. Will Texas be ahead of Oregon? If not, then we will have a hard time passing them since we play a weaker opponent. Will OSU be sandwiched between Texas and Bama, Texas and Oregon, or behind all 3? This might give some insight into how far apart they view the 1 loss teams. If Texas is 6 and OSU 7 and Bama 8, it might tell us that Texas would have a strong leg up in a H2H debate with Bama. 

[The Dog 43803]

[Texasborn91 897]

3 minutes ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

Tonight's rankings will tell us a lot about the mind of the committee. Will Florida State be #4? If not, then they are opening the door a little bit for them to be passed. Will Texas be ahead of Oregon? If not, then we will have a hard time passing them since we play a weaker opponent. Will OSU be sandwiched between Texas and Bama, Texas and Oregon, or behind all 3? This might give some insight into how far apart they view the 1 loss teams. If Texas is 6 and OSU 7 and Bama 8, it might tell us that Texas would have a strong leg up in a H2H debate with Bama. 

Did you factor in Oregon’s big win vs Utah?! You know who barely beat a 3 win Baylor…. The committee sure thinks that was an impressive win. 

[jimmyjazz 45557]

1 hour ago, troph said:

In those same 9 years there hasn’t been this kind of log jam at the top. The top 7-8 teams are all pretty damn good

It's more like none of the top 7-8 teams are transcendent.  There are no juggernauts this year.

[Texasborn91 897]

1 minute ago, The Dog said:

Fucking Texas Tech could have gifted us one. 

[dcar00 14035]

8 minutes ago, Js1 said:

It shouldn’t be a conf strength argument bc of unbalanced schedules. Besides, ACC has 79% of its league as bowl eligible, PAC 67% and Big 12/SEC tied at 64%

It is interesting that the bowl eligibility is almost the inverse of the conf strength.  Big 10 is a bit of an outlier at 57% bowl eligible. I amend my statement on the PAC it is not good but the Big 10 is utter dogshit.

[jimmyjazz 45557]

20 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

Everyone says that Ore will have beaten an undefeated Wash, but we will have beaten an undefeated Bama, who beat the 2 time champs.

Come again?

[dcar00 14035]

Just now, jimmyjazz said:

Come again?

if our game with Bama happened to be at the end of the year Bama would be undefeated when we play just like if Oregon beats Wash on Saturday.  everyone likes to talk about how impressive it would be for OU to beat undefeated Wash.  well we essentially did the same thing with Bama(assumes they beat Ga). who will have a better SOS than Wash or Ore.

[BigHornedLurker 1894]

33 minutes ago, Horndog said:

If Bama, Texas, and UO end up as the 3 teams being considered, the committee can avoid the entire Texas/Bama controversy by taking them both. They can justify it by saying the win at Bama is better than UO splitting with UW.

they could have already done this , and i think they should have , i suppose they still could but at this point i won't believe it until i see it . 

whatever they are smoking on oregon is some strong stuff 

[The Dog 43803]

10 minutes ago, Texasborn91 said:

Fucking Texas Tech could have gifted us one. 

at least Tech is a bowl team but Oregon needed a crazy comeback to win. 

Texas, Bama, and FSU all had to blow leads to make their games close.

Nobody got away with one like Washington did against ASU: https://www.espn.com/college-football/game/_/gameId/401524038. I stayed up to watch this game and I still don't know how ASU didn't win. They had to really, really shit the bed. 

 

[The Dog 43803]

2 minutes ago, BigHornedLurker said:

whatever they are smoking on oregon is some strong stuff 

I think there's an assumption that they are better than Washington and if they win they will have the next best thing other than being undefeated - which is avenging their only loss. 

Sucks for us because I agree we have the better resume' but if that's the argument they use then I won't lose sleep over it.

[Serak The Preparer 3424]

26 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

Well your longer post is also incorrect.

Massey - 1.) SEC 7.99 2.) Pac-12 7.85 3.) Big 12 7.85 4.) Big 10 7.80 5.) ACC 7.61

So virtual tie for 2nd

Sagarin (combining divisions)  - 1.) SEC 80.09 2.) Big 12 78.28 3.) Pac-12 78.08 4.) Big 10 76.55 5.) ACC 73.91

This is the theme. SEC is first, Big 12 is second along with the Pac-12, then Big 10 and ACC in clear 4th and 5th, respectively. "The Big 12 is utter dogshit" is a stupid and verifiably false statement that is itself utter dogshit.

It's also worth noticing that in both systems the SEC lead over Big 12 and Pac-12 is less than the gap between Big 10 and ACC. The SEC is still the strongest strength of schedule but I strongly suspect that the gap between #1 and #2 is less than the average over the last 10 seasons. 

[chainsaw 9838]

2 minutes ago, The Dog said:

at least Tech is a bowl team but Oregon needed a crazy comeback to win. 

Texas, Bama, and FSU all had to blow leads to make their games close.

Nobody got away with one like Washington did against ASU: https://www.espn.com/college-football/game/_/gameId/401524038. I stayed up to watch this game and I still don't know how ASU didn't win. They had to really, really shit the bed. 

 

People aren't appreciating how weak the Pac 12 is. I wonder how much of this comes from USC having been massively overrated at the beginning of the season.

[Wilcox Cummingtonite 2869]

43 minutes ago, Js1 said:

I am catching up after being mostly offline all day yesterday due to moving.  Seems to be:

"the committee will do X" 

NO YOU'RE STUPID, THE COMMITTEE WON'T DO THAT! YOU HAVE NO IDEA! THEY CAN DO WHAT THEY WANT! 

"the committee will do Y"

NO YOU'RE STUPID, THE COMMITTEE WON'T DO THAT! YOU HAVE NO IDEA! THEY CAN DO WHAT THEY WANT! 

[Wilcox Cummingtonite 2869]

5 hours ago, Hank_Hill said:

They aren’t putting a conference loser in. Stop being an idiot. 
 

But yea Georgia gonna roll Bama

Except it’s happened many times already in the history of the playoff. The committee has proven time and again they don’t care about conference championship games vs. “eye test.”

It’s a beauty contest. The BCS was really a superior system of ranking teams. The issue then was 2 vs. 4 spots, not how they were ranked. Flame away. 

[utee94 15745]

2 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

People aren't appreciating how weak the Pac 12 is. I wonder how much of this comes from USC having been massively overrated at the beginning of the season.

I think that high expectations and early results for USC, coupled with Prime hype, fueled a ton of the early giddiness.  And apparently, that euphoria hasn't faded away through the remainder of the season.

The selection committee are basically like children who are easily distracted by shiny objects.  No amount of reasoning is going to change their minds once they see the bauble and decide that it is what they want.

[chainsaw 9838]

2 minutes ago, utee94 said:

I think that high expectations and early results for USC, coupled with Prime hype, fueled a ton of the early giddiness.  And apparently, that euphoria hasn't faded away through the remainder of the season.

The selection committee are basically like children who are easily distracted by shiny objects.  No amount of reasoning is going to change their minds once they see the bauble and decide that it is what they want.

No you just don't understand. Caleb Williams was so good NFL teams were tripping over themselves to offer him ownership stakes.

[immamac 42518]

I still think FSU gets left out even if they are undefeated in the ultimate chaos scenario. 

I’ve resigned to only 2 scenarios that I want. Both of which are good for college football and good for Texas. Everyone wins or only FSU loses. 

scenario 1, “undefeated playoffs”, the “greatest” and final four team playoff in the history of college football: only undefeated conference champions. 
1) Georgia Undefeated SEC Champions 

2) Michigan Undefeated B1G Champions

3) Washington Undefeated P12 Champions

4) FSU Undefeated ACC Champions 

Scenario 2, “The Rematches”, every team in played within 12 months or have each other scheduled within 12 months:

1) Georgia Sugar Bowl Loss to Texas revenge game in NOLA and at Texas next season

2) Michigan Rose loss to Texas revenge game scheduled next year early season

3) Washington Alamo win over Texas and we have their old HC revenger

4) Texas fuck around and find out. 

[The Dog 43803]

from the Okie State pregame thread. Looking at you two Washington and FSU:

[chainsaw 9838]

It's going to be hard to keep FSU out if they took care of business every week. If the "eye test" is a bullshit excuse to rank Oregon too high, and it is, it's also a bullshit excuse to rank FSU too low. Really rooting for Louisville.

[Wilcox Cummingtonite 2869]

Washington has been extremely lucky. That ASU game should have been an L if it wasn’t for a red zone pick 6 that saved their asses in the final minutes.

[immamac 42518]

Just now, Wilcox Cummingtonite said:

Washington has been extremely lucky. That ASU game should have been an L if it wasn’t for a red zone pick 6 that saved their asses in the final minutes.

Texas is :12 seconds away from this conversation being completely irrelevant. 

[tokamak 6352]

7 hours ago, C-Man said:

Ridiculous that Bama "gets in" in eight scenarios versus four for Texas, a team that will have an identical record, a conference championship and a 10-point victory in Tuscaloosa.

There's no science or anything behind that Athletic article people keep quoting. It's just Stewart Mandel being Stewart Mandel.

[chainsaw 9838]

4 minutes ago, immamac said:

Texas is :12 seconds away from this conversation being completely irrelevant. 

I thought the regular season stopped mattering because we arrogantly destroyed BCS in favor of a playoff!

[The Dog 43803]

1 minute ago, immamac said:

Texas is :12 seconds away from this conversation being completely irrelevant. 

You're right but this is a bit of apples and oranges - we never trailed in that game and blew a huge lead. 

Washington trailed nearly the entire game and was out played by one of the worst teams in the nation. At home. 

[Hmbre97 6297]

1 minute ago, The Dog said:

You're right but this is a bit of apples and oranges - we never trailed in that game and blew a huge lead. 

Washington trailed nearly the entire game and was out played by one of the worst teams in the nation. At home. 

We did trail for a good bit of the game. We didn't take the lead in the second half until that field goal with a minute and change left. 

With that said, the largest deficit was 10 points at the beginning of the 3rd but for the most part, it was a tight game throughout. AND it was against an undefeated (at the time) OU and not fucking ASU.

[The Dog 43803]

1 minute ago, Hmbre97 said:

We did trail for a good bit of the game. We didn't take the lead in the second half until that field goal with a minute and change left. 

With that said, the largest deficit was 10 points at the beginning of the 3rd but for the most part, it was a tight game throughout. AND it was against an undefeated (at the time) OU and not fucking ASU.

shit i was thinking of Houston not OU. derp.

[C-Man 27052]

13 minutes ago, tokamak said:

There's no science or anything behind that Athletic article people keep quoting. It's just Stewart Mandel being Stewart Mandel.

There's no science with regard to the committee picking teams either. Just pointing out the common theme among college football folks is that Bama is playing as well as anybody at this part of the season as Milroe has improved exponentially.

[C-Man 27052]

1 hour ago, utee94 said:

So the only reason TCU won, is because they were on an even playing field, rather than one that was tilted heavily in Michigan's favor through cheating?  Okay...

Maybe not the only reason but TCU jumped out to a substantial lead and held on for dear life down the stretch IIRC. I think a lot of that early advantage was built up when Michigan mistakenly still thought they had TCU's signals. I would say that fact tilted that part of the game in TCU's favor.

[The_Great_Hornsby 3328]

2 minutes ago, C-Man said:

There's no science with regard to the committee picking teams either. Just pointing out the common theme among college football folks is that Bama is playing as well as anybody at this part of the season as Milroe has improved exponentially.

Eyeroll, because Bama looked so good needing a fucking miracle to beat Auburn. It is fine because I fully expect them to lose to Georgia which means... we need Louisville or Iowa. Someone better be paying off the ACC refs and pulling the fire alarm in FSU's hotel. 

[C-Man 27052]

Just now, The_Great_Hornsby said:

Eyeroll, because Bama looked so good needing a fucking miracle to beat Auburn. It is fine because I fully expect them to lose to Georgia which means... we need Louisville or Iowa. Someone better be paying off the ACC refs and pulling the fire alarm in FSU's hotel. 

Hey, man, I agree 100%. Just saying there seems to be a lot of chatter around this. For me, the math is fucking simple. If Bama beats Georgia, the Bulldogs are out minus some serious craziness this weekend. Assuming we win, it's Texas, then Bama and then Georgia. Two of those are 1-loss conference champs and one beat the other -- by 10 at their place. Period. I'm just afraid of what the committee will do in that situation. Josh Pate is right -- in that instance, it should come down to Oregon vs Bama if the Ducks win the Pac-12.

[blutow 222]

31 minutes ago, immamac said:

I still think FSU gets left out even if they are undefeated in the ultimate chaos scenario. 

There is a lot of chatter in the media saying this would be the solution.  I still think it's a long shot, but it sure solves a lot of potential problems and only screws FSU.  It's all going to come down to where the committee falls on prioritizing best teams vs. deserving teams.   

[Frank Drebin 5622]

4 minutes ago, C-Man said:

There's no science with regard to the committee picking teams either. Just pointing out the common theme among college football folks is that Bama is playing as well as anybody at this part of the season as Milroe has improved exponentially.

I mean that is bullshit.  Bama has been about the same all year.  They have looked like shit at various points of the season, early (USF), middle (aggy and 3 point win at home v. Arkansas), and late (Auburn).  They also have looked dominant at various points of the season.

Milroe has been the same good QB all year. 

Milroe Pass Rating by game:

MTSU -- 217.8

Texas -- 140.8

Ole Miss -- 177.1

Miss State -- 198.1

A&M -- 169.3

Arkansas -- 174.2

Tennessee -- 176.6

LSU -- 145.2

Kentucky -- 193.4

Chattanooga -- 246.6

Auburn -- 184.4

He has been remarkably consistent all year long as a passer, despite what moutbreather SEC fan claims.