THE College Football Playoff Rankings Thread [MICH,WASH,TEX,ALA]

[Vic Mackey 46936]

The rationale has to be that their only loss is to an undefeated  UW, while our loss is to OU who has 2 losses themselves. The reality is that both teams are pretty damn close. This matrix of rankings shows how their positions flip back and forth depending on whatever criteria a particular computer poll emphasizes. 
https://masseyratings.com/ranks

I like to weigh wins more than losses. Our best win is against a team who is playing this weekend to win the SEC and get a playoff spot. Their best win wasn't even in the conversation. And ours was on the road. That outweighs their loss being better than ours.

[WBT 20421]

15 minutes ago, C-Man said:

There's no science with regard to the committee picking teams either. Just pointing out the common theme among college football folks is that Bama is playing as well as anybody at this part of the season as Milroe has improved exponentially.

It couldn't be because he's playing lesser defenses though.  Damn simpletons.

[C-Man 27052]

6 minutes ago, Frank Drebin said:

I mean that is bullshit.  Bama has been about the same all year.  They have looked like shit at various points of the season, early (USF), middle (aggy and 3 point win at home v. Arkansas), and late (Auburn).  They also have looked dominant at various points of the season.

Milroe has been the same good QB all year. 

Milroe Pass Rating by game:

MTSU -- 217.8

Texas -- 140.8

Ole Miss -- 177.1

Miss State -- 198.1

A&M -- 169.3

Arkansas -- 174.2

Tennessee -- 176.6

LSU -- 145.2

Kentucky -- 193.4

Chattanooga -- 246.6

Auburn -- 184.4

He has been remarkably consistent all year long as a passer, despite what moutbreather SEC fan claims.

Of course it's bullshit. But I promise you that it's not some crazy notion I've made up all on my own. If Bama beats #1 Georgia -- whether UGA really is #1 or not is up for debate -- this will be a factor. Seems like a lot of folks have already forgotten about the Sept game. Maybe the Auburn result was perfect for us -- Bama needs a well-publicized miracle to beat .500 Auburn (who lost to NMSU) in the dying seconds but still remain a 1-loss team. Our win is still over a Top 7-ish team.

[Dahobbs 17447]

13 minutes ago, Wilcox Cummingtonite said:

Except it’s happened many times already in the history of the playoff. The committee has proven time and again they don’t care about conference championship games vs. “eye test.”

It’s a beauty contest. The BCS was really a superior system of ranking teams. The issue then was 2 vs. 4 spots, not how they were ranked. Flame away. 

You've been wrong about a lot of things. And this is also one of them. A power 5 champion has never been left out in favor of a non-champion with the same or worse record: 

• 2014 - Oregon (Pac 12 champ), FSU (ACC champ), Ohio State (Big 10 champ), Alabama (SEC champ)
• 2015 - Clemson (ACC champ), OU (Big 12 champ), Alabama (SEC champ), Michigan State (Big 10 champ)
• 2016 - Alabama (SEC champ), Washington (Pac 12 champ), Clemson (ACC champ), Ohio State (11-1, non-champ) - Ohio State got in because Penn State had two losses
• 2017 - Georgia (SEC Champ), OU (Big 12 champ), Alabama (non-champ), Clemson (ACC Champ) - Alabama gets in because Big 10 Champ Ohio State has two losses, Pac 12 Champ USC has 2 losses
• 2018 - Alabama (SEC champ), OU (Big 12 champ), Clemson (ACC Champ), ND (12-0, ND) - Notre Dame gets in over conference champs because they all have losses
• 2019 - LSU (SEC champ), OU (Big 12 champ), Clemson (ACC champ), Ohio State (Big 10 champ)
• 2020 - Alabama (SEC champ), ND (10-1, ND), Ohio State (Big 10 champ), Clemson (ACC champ) - COVID year, so things are weird with ND, others didn't play full schedule or had more losses
• 2021 - Alabama (SEC champ), Cinci (champ of non-power 5), Georgia (12-1, non-champ), Michigan (Big 10 champ) - Georgia gets in because all other champs have more losses, and ND had 1 loss
• 2022 - TCU (12-1, non-champ), Michigan (Big 10 champ), Georgia (champ), Ohio State (11-1, non-champ) - Ohio State and TCU got in because all other teams had two or more losses

 

 

[freyguy 4245]

35 minutes ago, immamac said:

Texas is :12 seconds away from this conversation being completely irrelevant. 

I've never seen a scenario in all my years where losing to ou has never NOT fucked us...

[dcar00 14035]

yes the Auburn game should dispel the myth that Nov Bama is so much better than Sept Bama but it will be ignored by ESPN/Talking heads.

[Frank Drebin 5622]

Just now, dcar00 said:

yes the Auburn game should dispel the myth that Nov Bama is so much better than Sept Bama but it will be ignored by ESPN/Talking heads.

And October Bama beat Arkansas by 3 at home and struggled with mediocre A&M on the road.

Alabama has been the same all year long.  So has Milroe.

I doubt they beat UGA because like Texas, UGA will own the LOS. But if they do, and Texas takes care of business, Texas should be in the playoffs.

[Vic Mackey 46936]

There is a lot of chatter in the media saying this would be the solution.  I still think it's a long shot, but it sure solves a lot of potential problems and only screws FSU.  It's all going to come down to where the committee falls on prioritizing best teams vs. deserving teams.   

Would it be fair? Probably not. All of those guys on the team wants the playoff experience. Not their fault their QB went down. They won a P5 conference undefeated and would get replaced by a 1 loss team, although it would be a conference winner.

But everyone knows FSU is dogshit right now. Hell, they were even suspect with their QB playing. That LSU win early wasn't nearly as impressive as originally thought. The whole ACC was pathetic.

Putting in FSU guarantees a blowout. If you want the criteria to be pick the best 5 conference winners, they aren't in, undefeated be damned. Seeing as college football doesn't play some round robin schedule where we can compare records. Our resume is better. FSU's offense right now resembles Iowa.

[dcar00 14035]

3 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

You've been wrong about a lot of things. And this is also one of them. A power 5 champion has never been left out in favor of a non-champion with the same or worse record: 

• 2014 - Oregon (Pac 12 champ), FSU (ACC champ), Ohio State (Big 10 champ), Alabama (SEC champ)
• 2015 - Clemson (ACC champ), OU (Big 12 champ), Alabama (SEC champ), Michigan State (Big 10 champ)
• 2016 - Alabama (SEC champ), Washington (Pac 12 champ), Clemson (ACC champ), Ohio State (11-1, non-champ) - Ohio State got in because Penn State had two losses
• 2017 - Georgia (SEC Champ), OU (Big 12 champ), Alabama (non-champ), Clemson (ACC Champ) - Alabama gets in because Big 10 Champ Ohio State has two losses, Pac 12 Champ USC has 2 losses
• 2018 - Alabama (SEC champ), OU (Big 12 champ), Clemson (ACC Champ), ND (12-0, ND) - Notre Dame gets in over conference champs because they all have losses
• 2019 - LSU (SEC champ), OU (Big 12 champ), Clemson (ACC champ), Ohio State (Big 10 champ)
• 2020 - Alabama (SEC champ), ND (10-1, ND), Ohio State (Big 10 champ), Clemson (ACC champ) - COVID year, so things are weird with ND, others didn't play full schedule or had more losses
• 2021 - Alabama (SEC champ), Cinci (champ of non-power 5), Georgia (12-1, non-champ), Michigan (Big 10 champ) - Georgia gets in because all other champs have more losses, and ND had 1 loss
• 2022 - TCU (12-1, non-champ), Michigan (Big 10 champ), Georgia (champ), Ohio State (11-1, non-champ) - Ohio State and TCU got in because all other teams had two or more losses

 

 

the last 2 years have skewed everyone's thinking because of 4 of 8 teams were non P5 champs.

[Horndog 2218]

FWIW the posters on Tidefans are convinced that they only jump Texas if we lose. They also think Oregon is overranked.

[NoName 16296]

1 hour ago, immamac said:

I still think FSU gets left out even if they are undefeated in the ultimate chaos scenario. 

I’ve resigned to only 2 scenarios that I want. Both of which are good for college football and good for Texas. Everyone wins or only FSU loses. 

scenario 1, “undefeated playoffs”, the “greatest” and final four team playoff in the history of college football: only undefeated conference champions. 
1) Georgia Undefeated SEC Champions 

2) Michigan Undefeated B1G Champions

3) Washington Undefeated P12 Champions

4) FSU Undefeated ACC Champions 

Scenario 2, “The Rematches”, every team in played within 12 months or have each other scheduled within 12 months:

1) Georgia Sugar Bowl Loss to Texas revenge game in NOLA and at Texas next season

2) Michigan Rose loss to Texas revenge game scheduled next year early season

3) Washington Alamo win over Texas and we have their old HC revenger

4) Texas fuck around and find out. 

The Athletic did a 16 scenario look if folks are interested, it's just their opinion

 

Spoiler

Predicting the College Football Playoff field: The 16 possible scenarios

By Stewart Mandel

Nov 27, 2023

 

393

 

---

Heading into championship weekend, eight teams — Georgia, Michigan, Washington, Oregon, Florida State, Texas, Alabama and Ohio State (barely) — can still reach the College Football Playoff. That’s the highest there have been in the 10-year CFP era.

Only three times have there been seven, in 2015, 2017 and 2019, but even in those, one or more teams would have needed to pull an unlikely conference championship upset. What stands out about this year’s field is the seven teams playing this weekend are all reasonable picks to win their respective title games. It wouldn’t take much to unleash chaos.

Including what would arguably be the toughest decision the committee has ever faced: Alabama beating Georgia, and the No. 4 seed coming down to a 13-0 Florida State team without its star quarterback or the 12-1 two-time defending national champs.

GO DEEPER

Ubben: Why the CFP committee shouldn't exclude Florida State after Jordan Travis' injury

Even discarding the non-possibility of Iowa upsetting Michigan (you can throw this back in my face if the Hawkeyes pull off a 3-2 win), there are 16 possible combinations of results involving the ACC (Florida State-Louisville), Big 12 (Texas-Oklahoma State), Pac-12 (Washington-Oregon) and SEC (Georgia-Alabama) championship games. Below, I predict how the committee would rank the top five teams after each set of results.

For these purposes, I’m predicting the committee on Tuesday drops Ohio State from No. 2 to No. 5 following its 30-24 road loss to Michigan, behind the four undefeated teams but highest of the one-loss teams, but knowing any of Oregon, Texas or Alabama would pass the Buckeyes if they win this weekend.

 

Georgia is looking to complete college football’s first three-peat since Minnesota did it from 1934-36. (Mark J. Rebilas / USA Today)

Scenario 1: Georgia, Washington, FSU and Texas win.

1. Georgia (13-0)
2. Michigan (13-0)
3. Washington (13-0)
4. Florida State (13-0)
—
5. Texas (12-1)

Obviously, this one is as straightforward as it gets.

Scenario 2: Georgia, Washington, FSU and Oklahoma State win.

1. Georgia (13-0)
2. Michigan (13-0)
3. Washington (13-0)
4. Florida State (13-0)
—
5. Ohio State (11-1)

I take it back: This one is even more straightforward.

Scenario 3: Georgia, Washington, Louisville and Texas win.

1. Georgia (13-0)
2. Michigan (13-0)
3. Washington (13-0)
4. Texas (12-1)
—
5. Ohio State (11-1)

As a 12-1 conference champ, Texas gets the nod over Ohio State.

Scenario 4: Georgia, Washington, Louisville and Oklahoma State win.

1. Georgia (13-0)
2. Michigan (13-0)
3. Washington (13-0)
4. Ohio State (11-1)
—
5. Florida State (12-1)

This is the only of the 16 scenarios where I have Ohio State making it, and it requires a perfect storm. The Buckeyes need both the ACC and Big 12 to knock themselves out, opening the door for a conference to get two berths. Which means they also need Oregon to lose.

Scenario 5: Georgia, Oregon, FSU and Texas win.

1. Georgia (13-0)
2. Michigan (13-0)
3. Oregon (12-1)
4. Florida State (13-0)
—
5. Texas (12-1)

The committee has consistently placed one-loss Oregon above one-loss Texas despite the Horns arguably owning a better resume; so no reason to think that changes if the Ducks beat a 12-0 opponent in their last game. I even have them passing undefeated FSU.

Scenario 6: Georgia, Oregon, FSU and Oklahoma State win.

1. Georgia (13-0)
2. Michigan (13-0)
3. Oregon (12-1)
4. Florida State (13-0)
—
5. Washington (12-1)

It’s possible the committee would consider keeping the Huskies in the top four given they’d still likely have four Top 25 wins (Oregon, Arizona, Oregon State and Utah). But, I’ll believe they leave out a 13-0 team when I see it.

Scenario 7: Georgia, Oregon, Louisville and Texas win.

1. Georgia (13-0)
2. Michigan (13-0)
3. Oregon (12-1)
4. Texas (12-1)
—
5. Washington (12-1)

Another tough call at No. 4, especially given Texas would have to move up three spots, but the Horns would be a conference champ and the Huskies would not.

Scenario 8: Georgia, Oregon, Louisville and Oklahoma State win.

1. Georgia (13-0)
2. Michigan (13-0)
3. Oregon (12-1)
4. Washington (12-1)
—
5. Ohio State (11-1)

This is the one scenario where I could see the Pac-12 getting two teams in. Washington’s resume would be superior to Ohio State’s.

Scenario 9: Alabama, Washington, Florida State and Texas win.

1. Michigan (13-0)
2. Washington (13-0)
3. Alabama (12-1)
4. Florida State (13-0)
—
5. Georgia (12-1)

Every scenario from here involves Alabama knocking off Georgia, and they’re all messy. But in none of them does undefeated FSU get left out. Also, Alabama moving all the way up to No. 3 would render its head-to-head loss to Texas moot.

GO DEEPER

Emerson: Georgia’s three-peat hopes depend on beating familiar nemesis

Scenario 10: Alabama, Washington, Florida State and Oklahoma State win.

1. Michigan (13-0)
2. Washington (13-0)
3. Alabama (12-1)
4. Florida State (13-0)
—
5. Georgia (12-1)

Same.

Scenario 11: Alabama, Washington, Louisville and Texas win.

1. Michigan (13-0)
2. Washington (13-0)
3. Alabama (12-1)
4. Texas (12-1)
—
5. Georgia (12-1)

Texas vs. Georgia would be an absolutely maddening debate, but I again default to the conference champion. Especially since Texas won at Alabama.

Scenario 12: Alabama, Washington, Louisville and Oklahoma State win.

1. Michigan (13-0)
2. Washington (13-0)
3. Alabama (12-1)
4. Georgia (12-1)
—
5. Ohio State (11-1)

Georgia over Ohio State is not much of an open-and-shut case.

Scenario 13: Alabama, Oregon, Florida State and Texas win.

1. Michigan (13-0)
2. Alabama (12-1)
3. Oregon (12-1)
4. Florida State (13-0)
—
5. Georgia (12-1)

Now, both one-loss Alabama and one-loss Oregon enter the picture. Georgia may claim to be better than Oregon, but Georgia would not have just beaten a 12-0 team.

Scenario 14: Alabama, Oregon, Florida State and Oklahoma State win.

1. Michigan (13-0)
2. Alabama (12-1)
3. Oregon (12-1)
4. Florida State (13-0)
—
5. Georgia (12-1)

Same FSU-Georgia debate. Same result.

Scenario 15: Alabama, Oregon, Louisville and Texas win.

1. Michigan (13-0)
2. Alabama (12-1)
3. Oregon (12-1)
4. Texas (12-1)
—
5. Georgia (12-1)

Same as Scenario 11, just with a different Pac-12 team.

Scenario 16: Alabama, Oregon, Louisville and Oklahoma State win.

1. Michigan (13-0)
2. Alabama (12-1)
3. Oregon (12-1)
4. Georgia (12-1)
—
5. Ohio State (11-1)

Basically, if Georgia loses Saturday afternoon, it better root like heck for Louisville that night.

All told, here’s how often each team gets in:

• Michigan: 16
• Georgia: 10
• Washington: 9
• Oregon: 8
• Alabama: 8
• FSU: 8
• Texas: 4
• Ohio State: 1

Scenarios where they have Texas in:

+

+

+

 

 

 

Edited November 28, 2023 by NoName

[gmr548 16511]

Well your longer post is also incorrect.
Massey - 1.) SEC 7.99 2.) Pac-12 7.85 3.) Big 12 7.85 4.) Big 10 7.80 5.) ACC 7.61
So virtual tie for 2nd
Sagarin (combining divisions)  - 1.) SEC 80.09 2.) Big 12 78.28 3.) Pac-12 78.08 4.) Big 10 76.55 5.) ACC 73.91
This is the theme. SEC is first, Big 12 is second along with the Pac-12, then Big 10 and ACC in clear 4th and 5th, respectively. "The Big 12 is utter dogshit" is a stupid and verifiably false statement that is itself utter dogshit.

The Big 12 has a team that got demolished by a .500 Sun Belt team in the championship game and a team that scored 7 points on Ohio (not State) in the 4 spot at 6-3. The Big 12 has six G5/FCS losses to the PAC 12’s two, a lower overall and P5 OOC winning percentage, and is 1-3 against the PAC 12.

Further, to lean on analytics to prop up the Big 12 and then disregard them when arguing that Texas is better than Oregon for a playoff spot despite Oregon’s notable edge in such rankings is logically inconsistent.

I don’t think overall conference strength matters and I’m not the one of the people keeps bringing it up with the “it’s bullshit a PAC 12 team is ahead of Texas” bit. As I said before I don’t think there’s a huge difference between the two leagues but we don’t get to throw stones at the PAC 12 this year. The point below is the salient one to me - Texas has a tougher schedule than Oregon, team to team.

But overall conference strength shouldn't be an issue. The whole Big XII versus the whole Pac 12 isn't the question. It's the overall strength of the teams Texas played. We played all the top teams in the conference and missed a lot of the bottom half.

Like a said I’m not the one who brought it up originally, the point keeps coming up as if it means something.

Oregon being above Texas makes no sense at all. What is Oregon best win? Oregon State? Texas beat Alabama on the road. Common opponent is Texas Tech. Oregon escaped in a nail biter. Texas beat them by 50.

Should and will are two different things. They were above Texas in the last set of rankings and added a ranked win. Texas isn’t jumping them this week. There needs to be some sort of material shift in how one or both teams are seen for that to happen.

[hook me 2080]

12 hours ago, UTEE97 said:

What am I wrong about? Since the outcome is not yet known, how can you say I am wrong and you're right? I am willing to wager a bet that Bama will be ranked higher than us with a win over UGA.

But that's still a decision the committee will have to discuss. If UGA beats Bama there is no discussion - UGA is in and a spot is taken. Same with UW & Michigan. If undefeated teams start losing then the discussion of "who's the best 1-loss team" has to take place & the broader the discussion the better for us. The more 1-loss teams the better since we'll have the best victory, the best SOS, & a conference championship (assuming we win). All we really need is for FSU to lose, but Iowa & Bama pulling the upsets just in case FSU wins would be very nice.

[dcar00 14035]

Just now, Horndog said:

FWIW the posters on Tidefans are convinced that they only jump Texas if we lose. They also think Oregon is overranked.

they actually know football and they know we beat them convincingly on the road.  They also know Ore SOS number.  It isn't hard but media gonna media.

Texas should be in in any scenario that is not Wash, FSU, Mich, Ga(and you could make a case for Tex over FSU because ACC is fucking horrid and QB injury) but eye test, poll era loss column and such.

[gmr548 16511]

from the Okie State pregame thread. Looking at you two Washington and FSU:

Five of Texas’s 12 wins would be against top 25 teams in exceeding postgame win probability lol

[dcar00 14035]

4 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

The Big 12 has a team that got demolished by a .500 Sun Belt team in the championship game and a team that scored 7 points on Ohio (not State) in the 4 spot at 6-3. The Big 12 has six G5/FCS losses to the PAC 12’s two, a lower overall and P5 OOC winning percentage, and is 1-3 against the PAC 12.

Further, to lean on analytics to prop up the Big 12 and then disregard them when arguing that Texas is better than Oregon for a playoff spot despite Oregon’s notable edge in such rankings is logically inconsistent.

I don’t think overall conference strength matters and I’m not the one of the people keeps bringing it up with the “it’s bullshit a PAC 12 team is ahead of Texas” bit. As I said before I don’t think there’s a huge difference between the two leagues but we don’t get to throw stones at the PAC 12 this year. The point below is the salient one to me - Texas has a tougher schedule than Oregon, team to team.


Like a said I’m not the one who brought it up originally, the point keeps coming up as if it means something.

Should and will are two different things. They were above Texas in the last set of rankings and added a ranked win. Texas isn’t jumping them this week. There needs to be some sort of material shift in how one or both teams are seen for that to happen.

the conf strength is just additive to the overall SOS.  no one is saying conf strength is more important than overall SOS.

[BurntOrangeBlooded15 1564]

The way I see it, we need to win convincingly and FSU needs lose or if they do win, win ugly. 
 

Georgia, Michigan, winner of Wash/Oregon, Texas. 
 

I also think bama jumps FSU win a win vs Georgia. In that case it’d be Michigan, Winner of Oregon/Wash, Texas, Bama.  I don’t think bama beats Georgia though.  This is best case scenario for us though. 

Edited November 28, 2023 by BurntOrangeBlooded15

[UTEE97 3429]

I think the reason Oregon has been ranked ahead of us is because of their dominance over inferior teams and a very close loss to UW. They passed the eye test in every game. Most people believe they will beat UW in the championship game because how good they look. If we hadn't limped through the weaker part of our schedule, we would be ahead of them now. We can call their ranking "bullshit" but it is what it is. Calling something bullshit is the fan's coping mechanism but it doesn't change the reality. Now obviously we need help from Louisville.

Edited November 28, 2023 by UTEE97

[Tex Long 4348]

46 minutes ago, immamac said:

Texas is :12 seconds away from this conversation being completely irrelevant. 

Texas is 90 seconds away from handing the keys to the D with a 3-point lead and the opponents 75 yards from our goal line with no timeouts. The HC failed to get in the DC's face and demand aggressive D instead of letting an accurate, scrambling QB plenty of space and time to hit that :12 seconds play.

At least the HC has now - finally - insisted on aggressive D. Hopefully that's a standard for the future. 

We can only take care of our own bidness and pray for a Louisville win. Our bidness includes winning huge and stylishly. If I had my druthers, I'd be doing whatever I could to help Louisville... in a completely legal and scrupulously clean way, of course.

[Dahobbs 17447]

17 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

Further, to lean on analytics to prop up the Big 12 and then disregard them when arguing that Texas is better than Oregon for a playoff spot despite Oregon’s notable edge in such rankings is logically inconsistent.

It's weird. You keep claiming things like "the big 12 is utter dogshit" and that Oregon has a "notable edge" in analytics, but so far, every time your opinion has been tested by reality, it has fallen short. Oregon has a small edge in some analytics. Massey actually has Texas higher than Oregon and Washington. Sagarin has multiple predictors, with Texas being ahead in one of them, but slightly behind in the overall composite.  A narrow win for Oregon and a blow out of OSU by Texas may be enough to switch the two in Sagarin's composite rankings.

[C-Man 27052]

10 minutes ago, UTEE97 said:

I think the reason Oregon has been ranked ahead of us because of their dominance over inferior teams and a very close loss to UW. They passed the eye test in every game. Most people believe they will beat UW in the championship game because how good they look. If we hadn't limped through the weaker part of our schedule, we would be ahead of them now. We can call their ranking "bullshit" but it is what it is. Calling something bullshit is the fan's coping mechanism but it doesn't change the reality. Now obviously we need help from Louisville.

And our "limping" through the weak part of our schedule can largely be attributed to the injury to our starting QB -- UH, K-State -- and rustiness coming back against TCU. Iowa State is not a bad team and a 10-point win in Ames is a good fucking win.

[Pound Town 21]

31 minutes ago, NoName said:

The Athletic did a 16 scenario look if folks are interested, it's just their opinion

 

  Reveal hidden contents

Predicting the College Football Playoff field: The 16 possible scenarios

By Stewart Mandel

Nov 27, 2023

 

393

 

---

Heading into championship weekend, eight teams — Georgia, Michigan, Washington, Oregon, Florida State, Texas, Alabama and Ohio State (barely) — can still reach the College Football Playoff. That’s the highest there have been in the 10-year CFP era.

Only three times have there been seven, in 2015, 2017 and 2019, but even in those, one or more teams would have needed to pull an unlikely conference championship upset. What stands out about this year’s field is the seven teams playing this weekend are all reasonable picks to win their respective title games. It wouldn’t take much to unleash chaos.

Including what would arguably be the toughest decision the committee has ever faced: Alabama beating Georgia, and the No. 4 seed coming down to a 13-0 Florida State team without its star quarterback or the 12-1 two-time defending national champs.

GO DEEPER

Ubben: Why the CFP committee shouldn't exclude Florida State after Jordan Travis' injury

Even discarding the non-possibility of Iowa upsetting Michigan (you can throw this back in my face if the Hawkeyes pull off a 3-2 win), there are 16 possible combinations of results involving the ACC (Florida State-Louisville), Big 12 (Texas-Oklahoma State), Pac-12 (Washington-Oregon) and SEC (Georgia-Alabama) championship games. Below, I predict how the committee would rank the top five teams after each set of results.

For these purposes, I’m predicting the committee on Tuesday drops Ohio State from No. 2 to No. 5 following its 30-24 road loss to Michigan, behind the four undefeated teams but highest of the one-loss teams, but knowing any of Oregon, Texas or Alabama would pass the Buckeyes if they win this weekend.

 

Georgia is looking to complete college football’s first three-peat since Minnesota did it from 1934-36. (Mark J. Rebilas / USA Today)

Scenario 1: Georgia, Washington, FSU and Texas win.

1. Georgia (13-0)
2. Michigan (13-0)
3. Washington (13-0)
4. Florida State (13-0)
—
5. Texas (12-1)

Obviously, this one is as straightforward as it gets.

Scenario 2: Georgia, Washington, FSU and Oklahoma State win.

1. Georgia (13-0)
2. Michigan (13-0)
3. Washington (13-0)
4. Florida State (13-0)
—
5. Ohio State (11-1)

I take it back: This one is even more straightforward.

Scenario 3: Georgia, Washington, Louisville and Texas win.

1. Georgia (13-0)
2. Michigan (13-0)
3. Washington (13-0)
4. Texas (12-1)
—
5. Ohio State (11-1)

As a 12-1 conference champ, Texas gets the nod over Ohio State.

Scenario 4: Georgia, Washington, Louisville and Oklahoma State win.

1. Georgia (13-0)
2. Michigan (13-0)
3. Washington (13-0)
4. Ohio State (11-1)
—
5. Florida State (12-1)

This is the only of the 16 scenarios where I have Ohio State making it, and it requires a perfect storm. The Buckeyes need both the ACC and Big 12 to knock themselves out, opening the door for a conference to get two berths. Which means they also need Oregon to lose.

Scenario 5: Georgia, Oregon, FSU and Texas win.

1. Georgia (13-0)
2. Michigan (13-0)
3. Oregon (12-1)
4. Florida State (13-0)
—
5. Texas (12-1)

The committee has consistently placed one-loss Oregon above one-loss Texas despite the Horns arguably owning a better resume; so no reason to think that changes if the Ducks beat a 12-0 opponent in their last game. I even have them passing undefeated FSU.

Scenario 6: Georgia, Oregon, FSU and Oklahoma State win.

1. Georgia (13-0)
2. Michigan (13-0)
3. Oregon (12-1)
4. Florida State (13-0)
—
5. Washington (12-1)

It’s possible the committee would consider keeping the Huskies in the top four given they’d still likely have four Top 25 wins (Oregon, Arizona, Oregon State and Utah). But, I’ll believe they leave out a 13-0 team when I see it.

Scenario 7: Georgia, Oregon, Louisville and Texas win.

1. Georgia (13-0)
2. Michigan (13-0)
3. Oregon (12-1)
4. Texas (12-1)
—
5. Washington (12-1)

Another tough call at No. 4, especially given Texas would have to move up three spots, but the Horns would be a conference champ and the Huskies would not.

Scenario 8: Georgia, Oregon, Louisville and Oklahoma State win.

1. Georgia (13-0)
2. Michigan (13-0)
3. Oregon (12-1)
4. Washington (12-1)
—
5. Ohio State (11-1)

This is the one scenario where I could see the Pac-12 getting two teams in. Washington’s resume would be superior to Ohio State’s.

Scenario 9: Alabama, Washington, Florida State and Texas win.

1. Michigan (13-0)
2. Washington (13-0)
3. Alabama (12-1)
4. Florida State (13-0)
—
5. Georgia (12-1)

Every scenario from here involves Alabama knocking off Georgia, and they’re all messy. But in none of them does undefeated FSU get left out. Also, Alabama moving all the way up to No. 3 would render its head-to-head loss to Texas moot.

GO DEEPER

Emerson: Georgia’s three-peat hopes depend on beating familiar nemesis

Scenario 10: Alabama, Washington, Florida State and Oklahoma State win.

1. Michigan (13-0)
2. Washington (13-0)
3. Alabama (12-1)
4. Florida State (13-0)
—
5. Georgia (12-1)

Same.

Scenario 11: Alabama, Washington, Louisville and Texas win.

1. Michigan (13-0)
2. Washington (13-0)
3. Alabama (12-1)
4. Texas (12-1)
—
5. Georgia (12-1)

Texas vs. Georgia would be an absolutely maddening debate, but I again default to the conference champion. Especially since Texas won at Alabama.

Scenario 12: Alabama, Washington, Louisville and Oklahoma State win.

1. Michigan (13-0)
2. Washington (13-0)
3. Alabama (12-1)
4. Georgia (12-1)
—
5. Ohio State (11-1)

Georgia over Ohio State is not much of an open-and-shut case.

Scenario 13: Alabama, Oregon, Florida State and Texas win.

1. Michigan (13-0)
2. Alabama (12-1)
3. Oregon (12-1)
4. Florida State (13-0)
—
5. Georgia (12-1)

Now, both one-loss Alabama and one-loss Oregon enter the picture. Georgia may claim to be better than Oregon, but Georgia would not have just beaten a 12-0 team.

Scenario 14: Alabama, Oregon, Florida State and Oklahoma State win.

1. Michigan (13-0)
2. Alabama (12-1)
3. Oregon (12-1)
4. Florida State (13-0)
—
5. Georgia (12-1)

Same FSU-Georgia debate. Same result.

Scenario 15: Alabama, Oregon, Louisville and Texas win.

1. Michigan (13-0)
2. Alabama (12-1)
3. Oregon (12-1)
4. Texas (12-1)
—
5. Georgia (12-1)

Same as Scenario 11, just with a different Pac-12 team.

Scenario 16: Alabama, Oregon, Louisville and Oklahoma State win.

1. Michigan (13-0)
2. Alabama (12-1)
3. Oregon (12-1)
4. Georgia (12-1)
—
5. Ohio State (11-1)

Basically, if Georgia loses Saturday afternoon, it better root like heck for Louisville that night.

All told, here’s how often each team gets in:

• Michigan: 16
• Georgia: 10
• Washington: 9
• Oregon: 8
• Alabama: 8
• FSU: 8
• Texas: 4
• Ohio State: 1

Scenarios where they have Texas in:

+

+

+

 

 

 

Pretty sure the writer came out and acknowledged that it was an error to have Bama jump Texas in 2 of the scenarios.

[Codaxx 5602]

31 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

The Big 12 has a team that got demolished by a .500 Sun Belt team in the championship game and a team that scored 7 points on Ohio (not State) in the 4 spot at 6-3. The Big 12 has six G5/FCS losses to the PAC 12’s two, a lower overall and P5 OOC winning percentage, and is 1-3 against the PAC 12.

Further, to lean on analytics to prop up the Big 12 and then disregard them when arguing that Texas is better than Oregon for a playoff spot despite Oregon’s notable edge in such rankings is logically inconsistent.

I don’t think overall conference strength matters and I’m not the one of the people keeps bringing it up with the “it’s bullshit a PAC 12 team is ahead of Texas” bit. As I said before I don’t think there’s a huge difference between the two leagues but we don’t get to throw stones at the PAC 12 this year. The point below is the salient one to me - Texas has a tougher schedule than Oregon, team to team.


Like a said I’m not the one who brought it up originally, the point keeps coming up as if it means something.

Should and will are two different things. They were above Texas in the last set of rankings and added a ranked win. Texas isn’t jumping them this week. There needs to be some sort of material shift in how one or both teams are seen for that to happen.

I have not looked at the conference records in depth, but I think a lot of the love for the Pac 10 as a conference is based on early season wins over Florida and TCU.. At the time those were considered statements. Today we know TCU and Florida is not going anywhere. I would guess the computers are giving Big 12 some credit for their game play vs Oregon (tech) and Utah (Baylor), 

[Bateshorn 9899]

1 hour ago, Wilcox Cummingtonite said:

Washington has been extremely lucky. That ASU game should have been an L if it wasn’t for a red zone pick 6 that saved their asses in the final minutes.

Oregon State had them on the ropes and for some unfathomable reason put it in Uiagaleli's hands right at the end when all they needed was a field goal. 

[UTEE97 3429]

13 minutes ago, C-Man said:

And our "limping" through the weak part of our schedule can largely be attributed to the injury to our starting QB -- UH, K-State -- and rustiness coming back against TCU. Iowa State is not a bad team and a 10-point win in Ames is a good fucking win.

The committee doesn't need to give us the benefit of the doubt when the team we are competing against for a spot is looking dominant. They have a heisman frontrunner QB and our QB maybe coming back for another year because his draft stock fell. 

Edited November 28, 2023 by UTEE97

[linux 1659]

46 minutes ago, Horndog said:

FWIW the posters on Tidefans are convinced that they only jump Texas if we lose. They also think Oregon is overranked.

Tidedans is pretty dumb though. Dumber than here.

 

Have not been there since 09 tho

[jimmyjazz 45557]

1 hour ago, The Dog said:

I think there's an assumption that they are better than Washington

They may be better than Washington, but to me the line is crazy (although  I'm not a betting man, for good reason).  Washington beat them by 3 in Seattle, which would seem to imply a push on a neutral site (home field advantage ~ 3 points).  Washington + 9.5?  I don't get it.

[Dahobbs 17447]

57 minutes ago, freyguy said:

I've never seen a scenario in all my years where losing to ou has never NOT fucked us...

Yeah, I say we stop doing that. 

[jimmyjazz 45557]

1 hour ago, Serak The Preparer said:

It's also worth noticing that in both systems the SEC lead over Big 12 and Pac-12 is less than the gap between Big 10 and ACC. The SEC is still the strongest strength of schedule but I strongly suspect that the gap between #1 and #2 is less than the average over the last 10 seasons. 

If memory serves, Sagarin has often had SEC West #1 and Big 12 #2.  This year we're down a bit.

[The Dog 43803]

2 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

They may be better than Washington, but to me the line is crazy (although  I'm not a betting man, for good reason).  Washington beat them by 3 in Seattle, which would seem to imply a push on a neutral site (home field advantage ~ 3 points).  Washington + 9.5?  I don't get it.

It seems a bit high but Sagarin and Massey have Oregon as a touchdown favorite. Maybe they want people to bet the Huskies? That's all I got.

[bullet 1596]

7 hours ago, Hank_Hill said:

They aren’t putting a conference loser in. Stop being an idiot. 
 

But yea Georgia gonna roll Bama

Agree.

 

 

[Frank Drebin 5622]

2 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

If memory serves, Sagarin has often had SEC West #1 and Big 12 #2.  This year we're down a bit.

Really would have been nice if a couple nail biters had gone our way.

K State against Missouri.

Baylor against Utah.

TCU against Colorado.

Tech against Oregon.

Would also have helped had Pratt not been hurt and played against Ole Miss.  An additional loss by Ole Miss and by Missouri helps us.

[freyguy 4245]

4 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

Yeah, I say we stop doing that. 

[Dnaguy 11775]

Considering that pretty much every scenario has played out to keep us on the outside of the top 4, I have to imagine that our luck is about to change.

... or at least I'm telling myself that.

 

[bullet 1596]

3 hours ago, gmr548 said:

I made a longer post on this earlier, but let’s just say Texas lives in a glass house when it comes to calling out the strength of other conferences. The Big 12 is utter dogshit this year and its profile is no better (and probably a little worse) than the PAC.

Oregon played the bottom 6 in the Pac and beat up on them.  You have to look at who they played, not which conference.  And Sagarin, for one, shows the Big 12 as the 2nd strongest conference.

[markstanco 12505]

9 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

If memory serves, Sagarin has often had SEC West #1 and Big 12 #2.  This year we're down a bit.

Sagarin was friendly either last year or the year before.  This year Penn State with 2 losses at 7 and Texas at 8.  And that is with the #2 SOS.  Maybe he doesnt take that into account.  No idea how is system works on that stat.

[bullet 1596]

2 hours ago, Wilcox Cummingtonite said:

Except it’s happened many times already in the history of the playoff. The committee has proven time and again they don’t care about conference championship games vs. “eye test.”

It’s a beauty contest. The BCS was really a superior system of ranking teams. The issue then was 2 vs. 4 spots, not how they were ranked. Flame away. 

Agree.  I thought the committee would have been better, but it has been far worse.  When Alvarez and Osborne were on it was the worst.  Committee members said they deferred to the coaches.  And it was two 3 yards and a cloud of dust coaches who didn't respect the new offenses.  TCU should have been in 2014.  Its group dynamics.  Groups often get swayed by the most opinionated and they take over.  At least with the polls, the people are responding independently.

I'll be glad when all they do is pick 6 or 7 and the champs all get in.  A #10/11/12 isn't getting badly screwed if they miss it.

 

[JBJ 3649]

Sagarin and Massey are both score-weighted elo-like systems.  Massey does a better job for controlling for it by using win probabilities instead of actual scores, but that style of system as a wholes tends to punish difficult schedules.

Edited November 28, 2023 by JBJ

[dcar00 14035]

17 minutes ago, bullet said:

Agree.

 

 

Georgia had a chance to roll Tech and couldn't do it.

[Jimbob 417]

20 hours ago, hobbes2702 said:

It’s the same shit we see every year. Outside of their big teams (Bama/UGA in recent years) the SEC teams underperform in non conf and then underperform in bowls. We pretend they are good because average ass teams like LSU beat other average ass teams like Mizzou and ole Miss. LSU, Mizzou, Ole Miss would be OSU, KSU level in the big 12.

We pretend they are good because the narrative of SEC dominance started rolling when they won 7 in a row after our 2005 win.  
in the ensuing 17 seasons SEC has had 19 representatives, at least 1 rep in 16 of 17, and they have won 13 of the 17.  
 

they have been top heavy for sure, and an SEC bias has led to 2 teams in the finals 3 times, but they still have to go win the games and 5 different teams have done so.  ACC has 3 wins and B1G has 1.  That’s it.  
 

if anything I would say B1G has been the biggest underachiever based on 1 team going 1/4 with no other contenders while getting hyped up and making more money than the others.  

[Dahobbs 17447]

2 minutes ago, bullet said:

Agree.  I thought the committee would have been better, but it has been far worse.  When Alvarez and Osborne were on it was the worst.  Committee members said they deferred to the coaches.  And it was two 3 yards and a cloud of dust coaches who didn't respect the new offenses.  TCU should have been in 2014.  Its group dynamics.  Groups often get swayed by the most opinionated and they take over.  At least with the polls, the people are responding independently.

I'll be glad when all they do is pick 6 or 7 and the champs all get in.  A #10/11/12 isn't getting badly screwed if they miss it.

How has the committee been worse? Refer to my post on the previous page. I don't see much controversy with the selections generally. Champions get in over non-champions with equal records. 2014 featured a bunch of 1-loss champions, so someone was going to get left out. 

[bullet 1596]

43 minutes ago, Pound Town said:

Pretty sure the writer came out and acknowledged that it was an error to have Bama jump Texas in 2 of the scenarios.

If Michigan loses there are very few scenarios where they get in.  Mandel is mostly fos these days.

[Dahobbs 17447]

7 minutes ago, JBJ said:

Sagarin and Massey are both score-weighted elo-like systems.  Massey does a better job for controlling for it by using win probabilities instead of actual scores, but that style of system as a wholes tends to punish difficult schedules.

It also hurts teams like Texas that have significant injuries that impact scoring differential, but still manage to win. 

Edited November 28, 2023 by Dahobbs

[UTEE97 3429]

30 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

They may be better than Washington, but to me the line is crazy (although  I'm not a betting man, for good reason).  Washington beat them by 3 in Seattle, which would seem to imply a push on a neutral site (home field advantage ~ 3 points).  Washington + 9.5?  I don't get it.

Because Nips is playing better than Penis?

[dcar00 14035]

1 hour ago, Dahobbs said:

You've been wrong about a lot of things. And this is also one of them. A power 5 champion has never been left out in favor of a non-champion with the same or worse record: 

• 2014 - Oregon (Pac 12 champ), FSU (ACC champ), Ohio State (Big 10 champ), Alabama (SEC champ)
• 2015 - Clemson (ACC champ), OU (Big 12 champ), Alabama (SEC champ), Michigan State (Big 10 champ)
• 2016 - Alabama (SEC champ), Washington (Pac 12 champ), Clemson (ACC champ), Ohio State (11-1, non-champ) - Ohio State got in because Penn State had two losses
• 2017 - Georgia (SEC Champ), OU (Big 12 champ), Alabama (non-champ), Clemson (ACC Champ) - Alabama gets in because Big 10 Champ Ohio State has two losses, Pac 12 Champ USC has 2 losses
• 2018 - Alabama (SEC champ), OU (Big 12 champ), Clemson (ACC Champ), ND (12-0, ND) - Notre Dame gets in over conference champs because they all have losses
• 2019 - LSU (SEC champ), OU (Big 12 champ), Clemson (ACC champ), Ohio State (Big 10 champ)
• 2020 - Alabama (SEC champ), ND (10-1, ND), Ohio State (Big 10 champ), Clemson (ACC champ) - COVID year, so things are weird with ND, others didn't play full schedule or had more losses
• 2021 - Alabama (SEC champ), Cinci (champ of non-power 5), Georgia (12-1, non-champ), Michigan (Big 10 champ) - Georgia gets in because all other champs have more losses, and ND had 1 loss
• 2022 - TCU (12-1, non-champ), Michigan (Big 10 champ), Georgia (champ), Ohio State (11-1, non-champ) - Ohio State and TCU got in because all other teams had two or more losses

 

 

I'm not sure how to do it easily but it would be interesting to see how SOS looked for these teams and the 2 or 3 below them.

the committee does value conf championships because coaches value a trophy,  they value losses/wins because each game is like a little trophy.

what they have proven time and time again they don't value is SOS(computers) because coaches love to say you can only play who is on the schedule.  AD's on the committee don't punish cheesy OOC because they want to schedule auto wins.

[ousux 5587]

There is no fucking way Oregon makes the CFP and Texas doesn’t if we win next weekend in Arlington.
No. fucking. way.
 

Quoted for posterity. Loserville seems to be our only hope, but I'll gladly eat crow on this one.

[bullet 1596]

4 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

Georgia had a chance to roll Tech and couldn't do it.

Refs called 3 UGA TDs back and overruled a catch that would have lead to a 4th.  There were a couple of replays that overturned really bad calls.  Lead ref seemed really upset that those got overruled.  Georgia had a starting OL and their top 3 receivers out.  Kirby was just trying to stay healthy.  Play calling was very vanilla.  He wasn't going to show Alabama anything.  It was still a 15 point lead until Tech scored with about 5 minutes left to make it 8.

[TexEx15 17482]

 

[dcar00 14035]

Just now, bullet said:

Refs called 3 UGA TDs back and overruled a catch that would have lead to a 4th.  There were a couple of replays that overturned really bad calls.  Lead ref seemed really upset that those got overruled.  Georgia had a starting OL and their top 3 receivers out.  Kirby was just trying to stay healthy.  Play calling was very vanilla.  He wasn't going to show Alabama anything.  It was still a 15 point lead until Tech scored with about 5 minutes left to make it 8.

yeah, I know all the excuses.  the score is the score.  They didn't roll a 6-5 Tech team.

[Juicy 723]

The reason Oregon would make it over Texas is that, IF they beat Washington their best win (Washington) will be better than Texas best win (Bama), and they will have avenged their only loss. Texas could get some help here if Bama ends up beating UGA. A 1 loss Washington team probably drops to 5-6, a 2 loss Bama is probably around 10. 

If Oklahoma would have won out and Texas would have had the same chance and Oklahoma was ranked in the top 5 it would be a closer discussion, but unless Bama wins Saturday Oregon would have the better resume.

Oklahoma state being ranked in the high teens hurts Texas's chances unfortunately.