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THE College Football Playoff Rankings Thread [MICH,WASH,TEX,ALA]

texifornia

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mdmost

mdmost 43009

Posted
Posted (edited)

I do agree we need Bama to lose. If they win and FSU loses, there will be fuckery with Georgia, simply because SECITMEANSMOARRRRR! Georgia will get credit for being undefeated all year and losing at the end. I can very easily see these morons on this stupid committee doing just that. 

Edited by mdmost
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Texasborn91

Texasborn91 939

Posted
Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, The Dog said:

We need Bama to lose because if they win in this case then we are out.

they couldn’t have telegraphed this more - Georgia is in no mattter what. 

What the fuck are you talking about. No they are not. They just dropped Ohio st to 6 after a loss to number 3…. Uga is not making it in with a loss. Tough shit. 

Edited by Texasborn91
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Dahobbs

Dahobbs 17626

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, bigcigar said:

His scenario is by far the cleanest path for Texas to make the playoff. How is he wrong? 

His scenario leaves only one possibility for Texas to get in and eliminates several others. 

If Texas wins:

Texas is in if FSU loses. Nothing else matters. (There can be a maximum of 4 conference champs with 12-1 or better records, Big 12, Pac 12, SEC, and Big 10). 

Texas is in if Michigan loses. Nothing else matters. (There can be a maximum of 4 conference champs with 12-1 or better records, Big 12, Pac 12, SEC, and ACC). 

If both Michigan and FSU wins, our only chance is Oregon and Alabama winning, meaning 2 of Texas, Oregon, and Alabama will get in as 1 loss conference champions. Alabama would get in and then our h2h would come into play to drag us in over Oregon. 

There is simply no benefit to us to rooting for Georgia and Washington. None. Zero. 

 

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Chuckie Finster

Chuckie Finster 22702

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Posted
This is wrong. A conference champ has never been left out in favor of a non-conference champ of similar record. Never happened. The more one loss teams, the better for us. 
Any ranking before the final is merely to generate interest. They mean nothing. 

I tend to agree if you are comparing us with Washington, but I absolutely could see them putting both Bama and Georgia ahead of us if we all have one loss. No idea what happens if Michigan loses but don’t want to find out.
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gmr548

gmr548 16585

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8 hours ago, Dahobbs said:

It's weird. You keep claiming things like "the big 12 is utter dogshit" and that Oregon has a "notable edge" in analytics, but so far, every time your opinion has been tested by reality, it has fallen short. Oregon has a small edge in some analytics. Massey actually has Texas higher than Oregon and Washington. Sagarin has multiple predictors, with Texas being ahead in one of them, but slightly behind in the overall composite.  A narrow win for Oregon and a blow out of OSU by Texas may be enough to switch the two in Sagarin's composite rankings.

Sagarin has #4 Oregon 1.94 points better than #7 Texas, similar gap to Texas vs OU (who interestingly is ranked 8 right behind Texas - big drop off there).

SP+ has Oregon 2.5 points better than #7 Texas, enormous gap after Bama who is basically tied with Texas so no real comp.

FPI has #3 Oregon 2.8 points better than #7 Texas, a little wider than the gap between Texas and #11 ND (interestingly top 10 seems to be where most ratings are falling off a cliff)

The FEI gap between #2 Oregon and #7 Texas is equal to that between Texas and #21 USC/#22 Clemson.

#5 Texas is marginally ahead of #7 Oregon in Massey's ratings (8.88 vs 8.85, which is really a T-6 with Washington), which measure past performance, but Oregon has a power rating 2 points higher, again slightly bigger than the gap between Texas and OU.

KFord has #3 Oregon rated 2.3 points higher than #7 Texas, also a little wider than the gap between Texas and #11 ND.

Analytics generally suggest Oregon would be a pick'em against Texas on the road and provide a general consensus that one is a top 4 team and one isn't. That is a notable advantage in the context of picking the top 4 teams.

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Huckleberry

Huckleberry 33038

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Posted
On 11/26/2023 at 6:37 PM, Huckleberry said:

Every committee has been different but most of them have stated that winning the conference championship is the differentiator. It's extremely possible for Ohio State to be ahead of a team tomorrow and then that team pass them when they win next week. In fact, I expect exactly that to happen for at least one team. I would not be surprised to see Ohio State ahead of any number of Texas, Alabama, and Oregon tomorrow and then for any of those teams who win next week to pass them in the final rankings.

The panic in here is so silly. This was obviously going to happen and just as obviously Texas will pass Ohio State with a win on Saturday.

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blutow

blutow 238

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Posted
Just now, The Dog said:

We need Bama to lose because if they win in this case then we are out.

they couldn’t have telegraphed this more - Georgia is in no mattter what. 

Hard disagree that a Georgia non-champ gets in.  Much more likely that we pass up Bama if they win and get that spot.  Nothing is guaranteed, but the chance of SEC being excluded is much higher than the chance of them putting 2 in with a non-champ.  It's been beat to death in this thread, but all the times a one loss non-champ has made it was when there were no 1 loss champs in play.  

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Texasborn91

Texasborn91 939

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Dahobbs said:

His scenario leaves only one possibility for Texas to get in and eliminates several others. 

If Texas wins:

Texas is in if FSU loses. Nothing else matters. (There can be a maximum of 4 conference champs with 12-1 or better records, Big 12, Pac 12, SEC, and Big 10). 

Texas is in if Michigan loses. Nothing else matters. (There can be a maximum of 4 conference champs with 12-1 or better records, Big 12, Pac 12, SEC, and ACC). 

If both Michigan and FSU wins, our only chance is Oregon and Alabama winning, meaning 2 of Texas, Oregon, and Alabama will get in as 1 loss conference champions. Alabama would get in and then our h2h would come into play to drag us in over Oregon. 

There is simply no benefit to us to rooting for Georgia and Washington. None. Zero. 

 

Still don’t believe Bama gets the nod over us. We beat them by 10, at their house. If that didn’t matter they’d already be over us. 

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VABuckeye

VABuckeye 2472

Posted
Posted
33 minutes ago, Js1 said:

OSU is 8th behind Alabama and Oregon.

Well that’s just stupid. Ohio State isn’t dropping behind teams that just lost their second games (ands Alabama should have two losses already).  At worst Ohio State holds at six but probably ends up at five if FSU loses and the other teams above hold serve.  

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Js1

Js1 85445

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Texasborn91 said:

Still don’t believe Bama gets the nod over us. We beat them by 10, at their house. If that didn’t matter they’d already be over us. 

Seriously, they’re not letting that H2H go. We’ve been stumbling around with UH, TCU, KSU, ISU and Bama destroyed Tennessee and LSU (ranked teams) back to back and they still didn’t get slotted ahead of us 

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Dahobbs

Dahobbs 17626

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Chuckie Finster said:


I tend to agree if you are comparing us with Washington, but I absolutely could see them putting both Bama and Georgia ahead of us if we all have one loss. No idea what happens if Michigan loses but don’t want to find out.

It has never happened. A non champion has never gone in over a champion of equal record. Non-champions have been jumped in the final rankings several times. You're worrying about an event that has an infinitesimal chance of happening and jettisoning multiple avenues of us getting in. 

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gmr548

gmr548 16585

Posted
Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, Texasborn91 said:

Still don’t believe Bama gets the nod over us. We beat them by 10, at their house. If that didn’t matter they’d already be over us. 

 

4 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Seriously, they’re not letting that H2H go. We’ve been stumbling around with UH, TCU, KSU, ISU and Bama destroyed Tennessee and LSU (ranked teams) back to back and they still didn’t get slotted ahead of us 

Yep. The body of work is there. Frankly Bama would probably be favored against Texas again just as Texas would be favored in an OU rematch. If they wanted to put Bama over Texas they have the ammo. If Bama wins and Texas doesn't look anemic in winning, they are both going to the playoffs and Oregon will be holding the bag if FSU wins.

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Hermanator

Hermanator 7120

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

Any ranking before the final is merely to generate interest. They mean nothing. 

I wouldn't agree with that. Having the precedent of Oregon over Texas now even though almost every metric favors Texas sets them up to have 1 loss conference champ Oregon in over 1 loss conference champ Texas. They're saying they will do that with this ranking. 

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Darth Tron

Darth Tron 1123

Posted
Posted (edited)

If you guys have watched the committee basically disregard our resume all year and still think we somehow won’t get fucked then I don’t know what to tell you.

A Louisville win + chalk elsewhere SHOULD get us in but I won’t be surprised if it doesn’t.

Edited by Darth Tron
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C-Man

C-Man 27235

Posted
Posted
17 minutes ago, mdmost said:

Not if we have a conference championship. That does make a difference. It didn't last year because no one else with a conference championship was high enough to be there in place of Ohio State. Utah, KSU. 

Yeah, they want Ohio State as high they possibly can put them in the event that carnage happens on Saturday. That way it appears to be a no-brainer include them in the CFP.

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UncleSonny

UncleSonny 6573

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, Getafix said:

 

Odds to make CFP

 

ESPN BET

- Texas 5th (+125)

- Ohio State 8th (+2200)

 

image.thumb.png.70366ea2c87058a0ab76d9eeeff4e04b.png

 

ESPN Predictor

Texas 5th (48%)

Ohio State not listed (they've only listed the teams in conf championship games; would presumably be lower than Texas/48%)

 

image.thumb.png.5de42069b7f521a846047d5f7d1a0033.png

 

 

So the ESPN calculator doesn’t think Georgia has much of a chance to make it in with a loss. I’m assuming that 4% difference is a chaos scenario with multiple losses, including Texas

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Dahobbs

Dahobbs 17626

Posted
Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, Hermanator said:

I wouldn't agree with that. Having the precedent of Oregon over Texas now even though almost every metric favors Texas sets them up to have 1 loss conference champ Oregon in over 1 loss conference champ Texas. They're saying they will do that with this ranking. 

It's possible. That's why we need the combination of Oregon and Bama winning. Both need to happen in order to give us a good shot if neither Louisville or Iowa come through. 

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Nicole44

Nicole44 22069

Posted
Posted

Fuck them. It’s one of the reasons I have always wanted a playoffs where all conference winners get in. Lose and you go to a bowl. 3rd runner ups go to a bowl. That’s it. Oh well…I hope we win out. Georgia beats Bama. Washington kicks Oregon duck ass. And Michigan…well fuck them too but I will be a Hawkeye fan this weekend. Florida State could fall. Let’s just take care of business. Should have beaten OU. 
 

If someone could somehow replace Flash in this gif with our mascot that would be cool. The committee can get fucked. This is why you don’t leave it to a bunch of dolts in a conference room. It’s absurd. 

giphy.gif

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Js1

Js1 85445

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Posted
1 minute ago, Texasborn91 said:

The Oregon boards are saying they would roll Tech by 50 also if they played today. PNW Aggy? 

They’re on a roll, so they might. Unless it’s a night game in Lubbock where weird things happen to top 5 teams 

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blutow

blutow 238

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, gmr548 said:

If Bama wins and Texas doesn't look anemic in winning, they are both going to the playoffs and Oregon will be holding the bag if FSU wins.

I was thinking about that angle as well, but I believe the Oregon love is too strong.  I expected them to put tOSU at #5 this week in front of all the one loss teams.  The fact that they elevated Oregon above and kept Texas and Bama below is telling.  If Bama wins, we get the spot (based on head to head) or Bama gets the spot (because Bama/SEC and recency of win over Georgia).  Most of the predictors I've seen basically makes the scenario a coin toss (ie - nobody knows how the committee would deal with it, it's totally unprecedented).  

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BurntOrange&White

BurntOrange&White 39934

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Hermanator said:

I think now we need both FSU to lose and Georgia to win. If FSU loses but Alabama wins they will almost definitely put both Alabama and Georgia in over us. I  feel that 100 percent is the case after seeing the disrespect we got today. 

We only need FSU to lose, it's that simple. 

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gmr548

gmr548 16585

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Chuckie Finster said:


I’ll concede that we want chaos if FSU wins, but I will stand by my statement that we want chalk if they lose.

I think it just ceases to matter if FSU loses. There is no conceivable scenario where Texas wins, FSU loses, and Texas misses out.

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936horn

936horn 916

Posted
Posted
37 minutes ago, Atticus said:

Oregon’s position and our position don’t matter. If Oregon beat undefeated UW, they would pass us. 
Oregon takes UWs spot, we just need another spot to open up ala Florida St, mich, UGa losing

Exactly. No clue why everyone’s all wound up on Oregon. The winner of the PAC title game is in whether it’s Oregon or UW. An FSU loss and MAAAYBE a Bama win are the only scenarios we care about

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Dahobbs

Dahobbs 17626

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Chuckie Finster said:


I’ll concede that we want chaos if FSU wins, but I will stand by my statement that we want chalk if they lose.

It doesn't matter if they lose. We would be 1 out of at most 4 conference champs with 1 loss or less. A non champ is only getting in if there are multiple upsets. And it isn't getting in over a 1 loss champ. Not happening. 

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DanTheHorn

DanTheHorn 4937

Posted
Posted
22 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

Sagarin has #4 Oregon 1.94 points better than #7 Texas, similar gap to Texas vs OU (who interestingly is ranked 8 right behind Texas - big drop off there).

SP+ has Oregon 2.5 points better than #7 Texas, enormous gap after Bama who is basically tied with Texas so no real comp.

FPI has #3 Oregon 2.8 points better than #7 Texas, a little wider than the gap between Texas and #11 ND (interestingly top 10 seems to be where most ratings are falling off a cliff)

The FEI gap between #2 Oregon and #7 Texas is equal to that between Texas and #21 USC/#22 Clemson.

#5 Texas is marginally ahead of #7 Oregon in Massey's ratings (8.88 vs 8.85, which is really a T-6 with Washington), which measure past performance, but Oregon has a power rating 2 points higher, again slightly bigger than the gap between Texas and OU.

KFord has #3 Oregon rated 2.3 points higher than #7 Texas, also a little wider than the gap between Texas and #11 ND.

Analytics generally suggest Oregon would be a pick'em against Texas on the road and provide a general consensus that one is a top 4 team and one isn't. That is a notable advantage in the context of picking the top 4 teams.

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Al Bundy's Napoleon Hand

Al Bundy's Napoleon Hand 13585

Posted
Posted
23 minutes ago, mdmost said:

Georgia will get credit for being undefeated all year and losing at the end.

Not that you're necessarily arguing this-

-Texas's win over Bama doesn't count as much cuz it was at the beginning of the season

-Also, Georgia's loss doesn't count as much because it came at the end of the year to the team Texas beat

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Dahobbs

Dahobbs 17626

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Hermanator said:

I think now we need both FSU to lose and Georgia to win. If FSU loses but Alabama wins they will almost definitely put both Alabama and Georgia in over us. I  feel that 100 percent is the case after seeing the disrespect we got today. 

No. They will not. 

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Tex Long

Tex Long 4408

Posted
Posted

The Committee has complete freedom. There appear to be no rules, just "guidelines". If Bama squeaks by Georgia, I think there's a reasonable likelihood they both get in, and we and FSU are both fucked, regardless of our winning. If FSU wins, we won't get in over them anyway. We need FSU to lose, and either Georgia to win or for Bama to absolutely trash them.

DisGoneBeGood.gif

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gmr548

gmr548 16585

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Texasborn91 said:

The Oregon boards are saying they would roll Tech by 50 also if they played today. PNW Aggy? 

I mean it's very fair to say that the Tech team we just saw was very different from the one Oregon did. And Oregon played them on the road in Week 2, probably spent most of the week trying to find Lubbock on a map.

Texas played them in the last week of the year, with the chance to clinch a CCG berth and stay in the CFP discussion, and having very obviously circled the game after a year of chirping from the Tech side. If Oregon was that motivated and playing at home against the Tech MASH unit they probably could win by 50. That doesn't mean Texas wasn't very impressive. I wouldn't take much more from the exercise than that.

2 minutes ago, DanTheHorn said:

anigif_sub-buzz-22846-1500491142-1.gif

Okay this was funny lol

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blutow

blutow 238

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Chuckie Finster said:

I’ll concede that we want chaos if FSU wins, but I will stand by my statement that we want chalk if they lose.

Agreed, but the order of the games is wrong on Saturday.  Conflicted interests while watching the SEC game.  

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Hondo

Hondo 682

Posted
Posted
25 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

His scenario leaves only one possibility for Texas to get in and eliminates several others. 

If Texas wins:

Texas is in if FSU loses. Nothing else matters. (There can be a maximum of 4 conference champs with 12-1 or better records, Big 12, Pac 12, SEC, and Big 10). 

Texas is in if Michigan loses. Nothing else matters. (There can be a maximum of 4 conference champs with 12-1 or better records, Big 12, Pac 12, SEC, and ACC). 

If both Michigan and FSU wins, our only chance is Oregon and Alabama winning, meaning 2 of Texas, Oregon, and Alabama will get in as 1 loss conference champions. Alabama would get in and then our h2h would come into play to drag us in over Oregon. 

There is simply no benefit to us to rooting for Georgia and Washington. None. Zero. 

 

If Texas beats OSU and Oregon beats #3 Washington, they're going to leave out Oregon...who is CURRENTLY ranked 2 spots ahead of Texas without the big win over #3 in play?  I don't see that happening. 

25 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

Sagarin has #4 Oregon 1.94 points better than #7 Texas, similar gap to Texas vs OU (who interestingly is ranked 8 right behind Texas - big drop off there).

SP+ has Oregon 2.5 points better than #7 Texas, enormous gap after Bama who is basically tied with Texas so no real comp.

FPI has #3 Oregon 2.8 points better than #7 Texas, a little wider than the gap between Texas and #11 ND (interestingly top 10 seems to be where most ratings are falling off a cliff)

The FEI gap between #2 Oregon and #7 Texas is equal to that between Texas and #21 USC/#22 Clemson.

#5 Texas is marginally ahead of #7 Oregon in Massey's ratings (8.88 vs 8.85, which is really a T-6 with Washington), which measure past performance, but Oregon has a power rating 2 points higher, again slightly bigger than the gap between Texas and OU.

KFord has #3 Oregon rated 2.3 points higher than #7 Texas, also a little wider than the gap between Texas and #11 ND.

Analytics generally suggest Oregon would be a pick'em against Texas on the road and provide a general consensus that one is a top 4 team and one isn't. That is a notable advantage in the context of picking the top 4 teams.

You forgot to include the metric that apparently trumps all.  The "but we're Texas" metric.

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gmr548

gmr548 16585

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Street2Peschel said:

What happens if Oregon beats Washington in a close game but Bo Nix goes down with a season ending injury.  Would THAT make Texas more appealing to the dipshits who are running this clown show?

Well Bo Nix definitely gets a martyr Heisman here.

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