THE College Football Playoff Rankings Thread [MICH,WASH,TEX,ALA]

[bullet 1596]

Committee paid off ESPN with a play-in game on Friday night.

[Dahobbs 17437]

2 minutes ago, Tex Long said:

The Committee has complete freedom. There appear to be no rules, just "guidelines". If Bama squeaks by Georgia, I think there's a reasonable likelihood they both get in, and we and FSU are both fucked, regardless of our winning. If FSU wins, we won't get in over them anyway. We need FSU to lose, and either Georgia to win or for Bama to absolutely trash them.

DisGoneBeGood.gif

We have a decade of results that says that doesn't actually happen. The real problem is that people keep acting as if the preliminary rankings are anything other than an attempt to generate publicity. They don't fucking matter. 

[Surly Bevo 24695]

1 minute ago, bullet said:

Someone mentioned the committee:

Big 10 3 members

ACC 2

SEC 1

Pac 12 1

Big 12 1

MWC 1

AAC 1

Other 2 (Journalist and Virginia Union)

RC Slocum-interim AD at ASU, Aggie coach, not sure where you slot him.  Half SEC, half Pac 12?

RC is not on the committee

Jesus just use the Intergoogles

https://collegefootballplayoff.com/sports/selectioncommittee/roster

[TexasMan 10786]

Hell yeah John

 

[Hank_Hill 18486]

5 minutes ago, Js1 said:

It’s wild that this opinion is actually increasing in popularity. Down Syndrome has gone airborne I guess. 

Edited November 29, 2023 by Hank_Hill

[RockyMountainHighHorn 889]

I don’t know why people think Louisville winning is so far fetched. They were going to be #9 this week minus the loss. They can beat fsu. 

[Dahobbs 17437]

5 minutes ago, Hondo said:

If Texas beats OSU and Oregon beats #3 Washington, they're going to leave out Oregon...who is CURRENTLY ranked 2 spots ahead of Texas without the big win over #3 in play?  I don't see that happening. 

Yes, if Alabama also wins, I think that is the most likely scenario. The primary way it doesn't happen is if Oregon blows out Washington and/or Texas struggles against okstate. At any rate, it certainly has a hell of a lot better chance of getting Texas in than any other scenario where FSU and Michigan win. Rooting for Georgia and Washington is rooting against our own self interest. We get no benefit from those two winning. 

Edited November 29, 2023 by Dahobbs

[Hmbre97 6297]

38 minutes ago, The Dog said:

We need Bama to lose because if they win in this case then we are out.

they couldn’t have telegraphed this more - Georgia is in no mattter what. 

Jesus Christ you are a fucking idiot and continue to post stupid shit. Please let the adults discuss this.

[Michael Knight 12888]

lol this is like a gameday thread with you reactionary fucks melting down. All that matters is winning our game and then hoping FSU loses, the results of the other games do not matter to us unless all hell breaks loose and there are 8 1 loss teams

Edited November 29, 2023 by Michael Knight

[ChickenNuggets 1611]

4 minutes ago, TexasMan said:

Hell yeah John

 

I thought we were against campaigning because of some phantom fears from way back in 2004.

[Rimbo 25772]

38 minutes ago, The Dog said:

We need Bama to lose because if they win in this case then we are out.

they couldn’t have telegraphed this more - Georgia is in no mattter what. 

[bullet 1596]

5 minutes ago, Surly Bevo said:

RC is not on the committee

Jesus just use the Intergoogles

https://collegefootballplayoff.com/sports/selectioncommittee/roster

I did.  My mistake was that I used Wikipedia which listed him even though his term is expired.

[runthebone 7932]

What does FCB say needs to happen?

[ChickenNuggets 1611]

44 minutes ago, FloridaHorn said:

Texas wins and FSU loses and we are in. None of the other shit matters.

that's like the 1,000th time this has been said on this message board in the last 4 hours... Not knocking ya, but every conceivable path has been discussed ad nauseum.. 

[Radical Larry 28528]

[BigHornedLurker 1894]

[Red Five 40632]

When I read threads like this I wonder how many of these people routinely go about their normal lives spouting complete nonsense with amazing confidence. Or is that limited to just the internet? 

[BigBenBamboozle 1948]

This gnashing of teeth over Oregon is going to seem so silly after Louisville and Georgia win.

[blutow 222]

4 minutes ago, RockyMountainHighHorn said:

I don’t know why people think Louisville winning is so far fetched. They were going to be #9 this week minus the loss. They can beat fsu. 

It's not crazy (like Iowa over Mich), but still only around ~25% chance based on the odds.  But there is a better chance Bama wins over Georgia.  As much as everyone is doom and gloom, Texas still has a decent shot.  If you believe ESPN's predictor (which looks reasonable to me), we are sitting at about 50/50 shot of making playoffs (near 100% if FSU loses and still a decent shot if Bama wins).  Texas chances are actually not that much lower than Georgia's chances, but Georgia controls their destiny.  

 

[Js1 85095]

1 minute ago, BigBenBamboozle said:

This gnashing of teeth over Oregon is going to seem so silly after Louisville and Georgia win.

Just wait. If Oregon win Friday night, the meltdown will be insane. Even though the only 2 games that matter for us are the Big 12 and ACC championships 

[Pancho 44454]

2 minutes ago, Red Five said:

When I read threads like this I wonder how many of these people routinely go about their normal lives spouting complete nonsense with amazing confidence. Or is that limited to just the internet? 

 

New slogan

[Hank_Hill 18486]

 

[Updawg 2261]

When I read threads like this I wonder how many of these people routinely go about their normal lives spouting complete nonsense with amazing confidence. Or is that limited to just the internet? 

No shit. Almost thought I stumbled into texags for a minute

[Hmbre97 6297]

I wish Blacklab would lay the ban hammer on these stupid fucks still nashing their teeth about Oregon. The committee has made it clear that eye test + possible Bo Nix heisman trumps all the metrics that have been discussed ad naseum.

The Pac12 champ is in no matter what. Michigan is in (they're not losing to Iowa) 

1. FSU loses, we're in

2. Bama beats Georgia, we're more than likely in. 

End of story. For fucks sake.

Edited November 29, 2023 by Hmbre97

[DanTheHorn 4897]

7 minutes ago, RockyMountainHighHorn said:

I don’t know why people think Louisville winning is so far fetched. They were going to be #9 this week minus the loss. They can beat fsu. 

There are teams with a history of wining and there are the Louisville's of the world that get close but just seem to find a way to screw it up. I hope that is not the case Saturday but I will enjoy the hell out of Texas win all day long with a Louisville win being the cherry on top but a loss by them will not define my Saturday.

[Make em eat Taco Bell 1549]

thread tl;dr.  Looking for ideas how Texas can get into the final 4.  

[Hank_Hill 18486]

1 minute ago, Hmbre97 said:

I wish Blacklab would lay the ban hammer on these stupid fucks still nashing their teeth about Oregon. The committee has made it clear that eye test + possible Bo Nis heisman trumps all the metrics that have been discussed ad naseum.

The Pac12 champ is in no matter what. Michigan is in (they're not losing to Iowa) 

1. FSU loses, we're in

2. Bama beats Georgia, we're more than likely in. 

End of story. For fucks sake.

I’m not confident we go over Bama, the people worrying about Georgia also going in this scenario need therapy though.

[Tex Long 4346]

11 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

We have a decade of results that says that doesn't actually happen.  

No, we don't. We have results that say two teams from the same conference can get in, and have done so... like last season... Argue about other circumstances if you like, but don't claim it can't happen. It fucking well can - I seriously doubt that it will, but it sure as hell ain't impossible or without precedent.

[wutang75 434]

Between “who has the best win” vs “who has the worst loss” it should always be the former - the goal should be to get a team in based on what they are capable of at their best.

[Js1 85095]

Just now, Hank_Hill said:

I’m not confident we go over Bama, the people worrying about Georgia also going in this scenario need therapy though.

I’d say the people who think Ohio State is in ahead of us should be lobotomized, but it’s clear they already were

 

[Dahobbs 17437]

5 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Just wait. If Oregon win Friday night, the meltdown will be insane. Even though the only 2 games that matter for us are the Big 12 and ACC championships 

I'm trying to figure out why anyone thinks Oregon winning is bad. There is no scenario where we get in over an undefeated Washington. We don't benefit at all if Washington wins. We have a chance (even if folks mistakenly think it's small) if Oregon wins. 

[The Dog 43792]

We've reached the penultimate rankings of the season, and the committee hasn't had to do a lot of moving and shaking. Thanks to an unprecedented year of success for the favorites -- teams ranked in the top eight are 89-7 with all seven losses coming to top-13 opponents -- it's been mostly rinse and repeat.

But since the majority of the top 25 won't play again until bowl season, the committee's choices this week resonate more than most, and that means a few big names and playoff regulars have good reason to gripe.

1. Texas Longhorns (11-1, No. 7) and Alabama Crimson Tide (11-1, No. 😎

The committee has made it clear since its first set of rankings this year that there's a lot of love in the room for Ohio State, but boy -- this still seems like a bit of a stretch, doesn't it?

A quick look at how the four one-loss teams stack up:

Top-35 wins by FPI (essentially a "Quad 1" win)
Alabama, 5
Texas, 5
Ohio State, 3
Oregon, 3

Wins vs. bowl-eligible opponents
Alabama, 7
Texas, 7
Ohio State, 6
Oregon, 5

Wins vs. winning Power 5 opponents
Alabama, 5
Texas, 4
Ohio State, 4
Oregon, 3

Strength of record
Ohio State, 5
Texas, 6
Alabama, 7
Oregon, 8

 

Alabama is one of four one-loss teams. Gary Cosby Jr.-USA TODAY Sportsnone

That last category certainly helps Ohio State's case, though the eye test suggests it's a bit dubious. Ohio State has two marquee wins: Notre Dame and Penn State. Both are good teams, ranked in the top 20 by the committee, and suggest the Buckeyes are worthy of discussion. But Notre Dame also got smoked by Louisville and lost to a reeling Clemsonteam fresh off a Dabo Swinney radio rant, all meanwhile Penn State was unaware it was legal to throw a pass beyond the line of scrimmage. Notre Dame's best win, in retrospect, came against NC State. Penn State's résumé begins and ends with Iowa. Are we absolutely sure it's the résumé builders the committee thinks it is?

Of course, ranking Oregon ahead of all of them is even more preposterous, given the Ducks' lack of résumé, but that problem will take care of itself in the Pac-12 title game.

Ohio State, meanwhile, is just sitting in the clubhouse, waiting for chaos, enjoying its place in the pecking order ahead of Texas and Alabama and certainly well aware that, at this point in the season, no team ranked worse than sixth has made the playoff.

It's certainly possible that, should Bama or Texas add the all-important "conference champion" label to its résumé, the committee will see to adjusting these standings. But it's also possible the committee sees a delicate issue of an Alabama-Texas debate (the Tide are red hot, the Horns hold the head-to-head win) and have decided to take a note from Iowa and punt on the issue altogether, as it did in 2014 when it ignored the thorny Baylor-or-TCU debate in favor of ... Ohio State!

https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/38999326/cfp-rankings-anger-index-conference-championship-week-2023

[Js1 85095]

1 minute ago, Tex Long said:

No, we don't. We have results that say two teams from the same conference can get in, and have done so... like last season... Argue about other circumstances if you like, but don't claim it can't happen. It fucking well can - I seriously doubt that it will, but it sure as hell ain't impossible or without precedent.

You’re looking at them without context. It’s been explained. Not our fault you won’t read it 

[Hmbre97 6297]

Just now, Hank_Hill said:

I’m not confident we go over Bama, the people worrying about Georgia also going in this scenario need therapy though.

Nah, I'm not worried about Alabama unless they run Georgia out of the building like we did Tech. We have poll momentum over them much like Oregon has over us. There is no interesting story with Alabama either; no possible heisman winner, fatigue of seeing Bama in the playoff, our H2H win. 

I'd eat a pile of white crusted over dog shit if Alabama pulled out a squeeker over Georgia and got in over us if we handle our business vs OSU.

[mdmost 42843]

27 minutes ago, Al Bundy's Napoleon Hand said:

Not that you're necessarily arguing this-

-Texas's win over Bama doesn't count as much cuz it was at the beginning of the season

-Also, Georgia's loss doesn't count as much because it came at the end of the year to the team Texas beat

Bro, we've seen this committee over the years tie themselves in knots to explain away 2 SEC teams getting in. Do I think it will happen, most likely no. I don't think Bama is beating Georgia unless Bama just has a perfect day. But I could very easily see Bama winning then we get the "see, this Bama team is different from the one Texas beat...Milroe was a different player". I could also see "it's hard to go undefeated in the SEC and Georgia did that all year until their final slip up". "The Big 12 just isn't as tough as the SEC and Texas lost to a 2 loss team". Granted that would have to be combined with FSU losing. Total chaos scenario. I won't even entertain Iowa winning. 

Edited November 29, 2023 by mdmost

[Dahobbs 17437]

1 minute ago, Tex Long said:

No, we don't. We have results that say two teams from the same conference can get in, and have done so... like last season... Argue about other circumstances if you like, but don't claim it can't happen. It fucking well can - I seriously doubt that it will, but it sure as hell ain't impossible or without precedent.

Never happened over conference champions of the same record. The opposite has in fact happened. A conference champion has jumped a non-conference champion multiple times. 

[Dahobbs 17437]

Just now, mdmost said:

Bro, we've seen this committee over the years tie themselves in knots to explain away 2 SEC teams getting in. Do I think it will happen, most likely no. I don't think Bama is beating Georgia unless Bama just has a perfect day. But I could very easily see Bama winning then we get the "see, this Bama team is different from the one Texas beat...Milroe was a different player". I could also see "it's hard to go undefeated in the SEC and Georgia did that all year until their final slip up". Granted that would have to be combined with FSU losing. Total chaos scenario. I won't even entertain Iowa winning. 

When? The only time multiple teams from the same conference have gotten in is when they have better records than the conference champions. That isn't knots. It's lack of other options. I swear, people are mixing up the playoffs with the old BCS. 

[hook me 2080]

1 hour ago, dcar00 said:

say it with me SOS doesn't matter.  schedule cupcakes and beat everyone's ass as bad as possible.

This has been the Michigan strategy for the last 2 years and it’s worked perfectly. Play a 2 season game and win the conference and you’re in. UO didn’t even do that this year and they’re going to be in with a win. The risk of playing heavyweights in the OOC isn’t worth it. Congrats to the committee on the devaluation of the first month of college football. If this is how it’s going to be we should just play 8-9 conference games and then start a 32 or 64 team playoff.

[Js1 85095]

1 minute ago, Dahobbs said:

When? The only time multiple teams from the same conference have gotten in is when they have better records than the conference champions. That isn't knots. It's lack of other options. I swear, people are mixing up the playoffs with the old BCS. 

This. Undefeated > 1 loss P5 champ > 1 loss non champ > 2 loss P5 champ 

[Hmbre97 6297]

5 minutes ago, The Dog said:

We've reached the penultimate rankings of the season, and the committee hasn't had to do a lot of moving and shaking. Thanks to an unprecedented year of success for the favorites -- teams ranked in the top eight are 89-7 with all seven losses coming to top-13 opponents -- it's been mostly rinse and repeat.

But since the majority of the top 25 won't play again until bowl season, the committee's choices this week resonate more than most, and that means a few big names and playoff regulars have good reason to gripe.

1. Texas Longhorns (11-1, No. 7) and Alabama Crimson Tide (11-1, No. 😎

The committee has made it clear since its first set of rankings this year that there's a lot of love in the room for Ohio State, but boy -- this still seems like a bit of a stretch, doesn't it?

A quick look at how the four one-loss teams stack up:

Top-35 wins by FPI (essentially a "Quad 1" win)
Alabama, 5
Texas, 5
Ohio State, 3
Oregon, 3

Wins vs. bowl-eligible opponents
Alabama, 7
Texas, 7
Ohio State, 6
Oregon, 5

Wins vs. winning Power 5 opponents
Alabama, 5
Texas, 4
Ohio State, 4
Oregon, 3

Strength of record
Ohio State, 5
Texas, 6
Alabama, 7
Oregon, 8

 

Alabama is one of four one-loss teams. Gary Cosby Jr.-USA TODAY Sportsnone

That last category certainly helps Ohio State's case, though the eye test suggests it's a bit dubious. Ohio State has two marquee wins: Notre Dame and Penn State. Both are good teams, ranked in the top 20 by the committee, and suggest the Buckeyes are worthy of discussion. But Notre Dame also got smoked by Louisville and lost to a reeling Clemsonteam fresh off a Dabo Swinney radio rant, all meanwhile Penn State was unaware it was legal to throw a pass beyond the line of scrimmage. Notre Dame's best win, in retrospect, came against NC State. Penn State's résumé begins and ends with Iowa. Are we absolutely sure it's the résumé builders the committee thinks it is?

Of course, ranking Oregon ahead of all of them is even more preposterous, given the Ducks' lack of résumé, but that problem will take care of itself in the Pac-12 title game.

Ohio State, meanwhile, is just sitting in the clubhouse, waiting for chaos, enjoying its place in the pecking order ahead of Texas and Alabama and certainly well aware that, at this point in the season, no team ranked worse than sixth has made the playoff.

It's certainly possible that, should Bama or Texas add the all-important "conference champion" label to its résumé, the committee will see to adjusting these standings. But it's also possible the committee sees a delicate issue of an Alabama-Texas debate (the Tide are red hot, the Horns hold the head-to-head win) and have decided to take a note from Iowa and punt on the issue altogether, as it did in 2014 when it ignored the thorny Baylor-or-TCU debate in favor of ... Ohio State!

https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/38999326/cfp-rankings-anger-index-conference-championship-week-2023

 

Please pull your head out of your ass and go look up who was the 2014 B1G champ and the results from that conf game. Then once you get some context about what happened and why in 2014, stick your head back up your ass and suffocate yourself.

[Henry Hill 3156]

4 minutes ago, mdmost said:

Bro, we've seen this committee over the years tie themselves in knots to explain away 2 SEC teams getting in. Do I think it will happen, most likely no. I don't think Bama is beating Georgia unless Bama just has a perfect day. But I could very easily see Bama winning then we get the "see, this Bama team is different from the one Texas beat...Milroe was a different player". I could also see "it's hard to go undefeated in the SEC and Georgia did that all year until their final slip up". "The Big 12 just isn't as tough as the SEC and Texas lost to a 2 loss team". Granted that would have to be combined with FSU losing. Total chaos scenario. I won't even entertain Iowa winning. 

[The Dog 43792]

Just now, Hmbre97 said:

 

Please pull your head out of your ass and go look up who was the 2014 B1G champ and the results from that conf game. Then once you get some context about what happened and why in 2014, stick your head back up your ass and suffocate yourself.

I didn’t write that, genius.

[Wilcox Cummingtonite 2864]

I tried to tell y’all.

[Hmbre97 6297]

Just now, The Dog said:

I didn’t write that, genius.

 

So why are you posting it? We've discussed all those states probably 40 times in this thread.

[Wilcox Cummingtonite 2864]

35 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

No. They will not. 

Yes. They will.

[TrashMaster G 17386]

God, I hate Joey Galloway. All he does is interrupt people.

[Dahobbs 17437]

2 minutes ago, Js1 said:

This. Undefeated > 1 loss P5 champ > 1 loss non champ > 2 loss P5 champ 

Yes. At least as the power 5 conferences go, the committee's primary ranking methodology for the final rankings has been clear:

First, record. Second championship. It is only in the event that these things don't resolve the debate that you move to any other factors. 

[Gaius Julius Bevo 6]

The answer is so obvious:  just have the 12 team playoff a year early.  Get the media partners to buy in.  I am sure they would be for it.  Everyone would make a lot of money.  Why is this so hard?

[Dahobbs 17437]

4 minutes ago, Wilcox Cummingtonite said:

Yes. They will.

These rankings do not matter. They are for fun. That is it. 

Edited November 29, 2023 by Dahobbs

[The Dog 43792]

2 minutes ago, Hmbre97 said:

 

So why are you posting it? We've discussed all those states probably 40 times in this thread.

Well I figured some would like it.

As for you:

Edited November 29, 2023 by The Dog