THE College Football Playoff Rankings Thread [MICH,WASH,TEX,ALA]

[Huckleberry 32694]

23 minutes ago, Hondo said:

No it doesn't.  You're getting suckered into assuming a transitive relation between football games.

If you go by your logic, Oklahoma's win would be the best of the season because they beat the team that beat the team that beat UGA.

But then Oklahoma State's win over Oklahoma would be the best.  If they beat Texas, then they'll have beaten the team that beat the team that beat UGA AND the team that beat the team that beat the team that beat UGA.  Oklahoma State should be in the CFP.

 

 

 

No, that has nothing to do with it. If Alabama beats Georgia then Alabama will be higher ranked than Georgia. By definition that makes Texas's win on the road at Alabama better than Alabama's win at a neutral site against Georgia. Alabama winning on Saturday vaults them much higher in the rankings and makes it the best win of the season. Right now based on rankings Michigan can argue their win over Ohio State is the best of the season (I don't agree with that because it was closer and at home, but Ohio State is currently ranked higher than Alabama). Alabama would also be higher than Ohio State.

Edited November 29, 2023 by Huckleberry

[Zeus 5945]

Just now, Huckleberry said:

No, that has nothing to do with it. If Alabama beats Georgia then Alabama will be higher ranked than Georgia. By definition that makes Texas's win on the road at Alabama better than Alabama's win at a neutral site against Georgia.

Except they won’t leave Alabama out. 
 

They should leave out Michigan for cheating and FSU for sucking and not playing anybody.
 

More likely Louisville and Georgia win and we are in the easy way. 
 

there’s no way we’re behind Oregon but if they beat Washington they will be #3 probably. 
 

This all finally goes away next year thank God 

[C-Man 27029]

 

Lol. Exactly.

Just pointing out that those who say we shouldn’t be rooting for Bama to win on Saturday need to adjust their thinking.

[Jewish Wang 111]

1 hour ago, Dahobbs said:

It isn't logical. You're rooting for a scenario that locks us in to a single possibility to advance. If all games were played simultaneously, maybe it makes sense. But since we will not know the outcomes at the same time, we will want each outcome to give us the highest number of chances to advance. This is simple game theory. 

 

There are a litany of posters here that take the committee’s guidelines as gospel, ignoring the word guidelines. There will be an SEC champ in. That’s indisputable. There will be a PAC 12 champ in. That’s indisputable. I’d rather not open the possibility of multiple teams from either conference getting in. That’s what could very easily happen with chaos, combined with a lackluster performance by us at 11 AM Saturday. 

The committee’s job is to put the best 4 teams in. Period. Posters have said the media doesn’t decide. The committee does, and of course this is correct, but the committee isn’t an infallible robot. It’s comprised of people no more intelligent than Rece Davis, Joey Galloway and Bohls. If we beat OSU the way we beat KSU or the way OSU beat BYU, and there’s a very tight SEC game with Bama winning, that’s a terrible scenario for us. If UW loses in triple OT, that’s a terrible scenario for us. This is really simple, root for Louisville, UGA, and UW in order of importance. 

I agree that tOSU sitting there isn’t an issue - if we look good. The fact that the committee should tell us everything we need to know about how they’ll operate. 

[SKA the boss 729]

We’re all Cardinal fans this weekend.

[The_Great_Hornsby 3319]

3 minutes ago, Jewish Wang said:

There are a litany of posters here that take the committee’s guidelines as gospel, ignoring the word guidelines. There will be an SEC champ in. That’s indisputable. There will be a PAC 12 champ in. That’s indisputable. I’d rather not open the possibility of multiple teams from either conference getting in. That’s what could very easily happen with chaos, combined with a lackluster performance by us at 11 AM Saturday. 

The committee’s job is to put the best 4 teams in. Period. Posters have said the media doesn’t decide. The committee does, and of course this is correct, but the committee isn’t an infallible robot. It’s comprised of people no more intelligent than Rece Davis, Joey Galloway and Bohls. If we beat OSU the way we beat KSU or the way OSU beat BYU, and there’s a very tight SEC game with Bama winning, that’s a terrible scenario for us. If UW loses in triple OT, that’s a terrible scenario for us. This is really simple, root for Louisville, UGA, and UW in order of importance. 

I agree that tOSU sitting there isn’t an issue - if we look good. The fact that the committee should tell us everything we need to know about how they’ll operate. 

No it isn't. I am disputing it. ESPN's own playoff projector disputes it. Look up the definition of the word. 

No their job isnt to put the best 4 teams in. It is to put the 4 most deserving teams in based on their body of work. Otherwise FSU would be #8 right now.

Edited November 29, 2023 by The_Great_Hornsby

[The_Great_Hornsby 3319]

8 minutes ago, Jewish Wang said:

There are a litany of posters here that take the committee’s guidelines as gospel, ignoring the word guidelines. There will be an SEC champ in. That’s indisputable. There will be a PAC 12 champ in. That’s indisputable. I’d rather not open the possibility of multiple teams from either conference getting in. That’s what could very easily happen with chaos, combined with a lackluster performance by us at 11 AM Saturday. 

The committee’s job is to put the best 4 teams in. Period. Posters have said the media doesn’t decide. The committee does, and of course this is correct, but the committee isn’t an infallible robot. It’s comprised of people no more intelligent than Rece Davis, Joey Galloway and Bohls. If we beat OSU the way we beat KSU or the way OSU beat BYU, and there’s a very tight SEC game with Bama winning, that’s a terrible scenario for us. If UW loses in triple OT, that’s a terrible scenario for us. This is really simple, root for Louisville, UGA, and UW in order of importance. 

I agree that tOSU sitting there isn’t an issue - if we look good. The fact that the committee should tell us everything we need to know about how they’ll operate. 

From an ESPN article this evening:

No. 8 Alabama: Path to the playoff: Win the SEC and hope Texas loses. Or win the SEC and have Florida State lose; that would leave Michigan, the Pac-12 champion, Alabama and Texas in the top four. The selection committee would consider one-loss Georgia and one-loss Ohio State in this scenario, but it would be difficult for them to justify, considering Alabama would have knocked off its top team, and Texas would have a win against the SEC champs. If Texas loses but Florida State wins, the top four could be Michigan, the Pac-12 champion, Florida State and Alabama.

[Dahobbs 17420]

10 minutes ago, Jewish Wang said:

There are a litany of posters here that take the committee’s guidelines as gospel, ignoring the word guidelines. There will be an SEC champ in. That’s indisputable. There will be a PAC 12 champ in. That’s indisputable. I’d rather not open the possibility of multiple teams from either conference getting in. That’s what could very easily happen with chaos, combined with a lackluster performance by us at 11 AM Saturday. 

The committee’s job is to put the best 4 teams in. Period. Posters have said the media doesn’t decide. The committee does, and of course this is correct, but the committee isn’t an infallible robot. It’s comprised of people no more intelligent than Rece Davis, Joey Galloway and Bohls. If we beat OSU the way we beat KSU or the way OSU beat BYU, and there’s a very tight SEC game with Bama winning, that’s a terrible scenario for us. If UW loses in triple OT, that’s a terrible scenario for us. This is really simple, root for Louisville, UGA, and UW in order of importance. 

I agree that tOSU sitting there isn’t an issue - if we look good. The fact that the committee should tell us everything we need to know about how they’ll operate. 

If multiple teams from a single conference get in, it means that 2 of Michigan, FSU, and Texas lost. That's it. If we win, we aren't getting passed up for a team that isn't a conference champion. 

Im not just taking what the committee says their guidelines are as gospel. I'm also looking at the results of the last decade to determine what they do. The rules are blindingly obvious. They look at overall record. And then they look at conference champions. They've only had to move beyond those metrics one time to select the four playoff teams. I don't think this is the year they change that. 

Edited November 29, 2023 by Dahobbs

[UTEE97 3429]

18 minutes ago, hook me said:

I feel like they’re saying “ooo offense score lots points” and acting like the Pac 12 became a good conference at some point. For some reason OSU was essentially a top 10 team for UW & UO to feast on. Their one decent win on the season was at Utah. The rest of the Pac 12 was absolutely overhyped from the jump. USC? trash. Colorado? flash in the pan that anyone with a brain could see but still ended up ranked in the top 20 for UO to smoke. Arizona? Ari-fucking-zona? give me a break. 

You have the UW AD who i bet has a preference on who makes it, the NCST AD as the chair who probably doesn’t want to give FSU any more reason to leave the ACC, and the KSU AD who was chosen by the Big 12 to replace CDC on the playoff committee and was “dumbfounded” when he found out the exit fees weren’t going to be as much as they were expecting.

I have no idea why UT is behind OSU & UO based upon on the field results, but I don’t think margin of score is going to be the deciding factor.

These people have their minds made up about who they think good programs are. What happens on the field don't seem to matter. 

[Hermanator 6928]

10 minutes ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

No their job isnt to put the best 4 teams in. It is to put the 4 most deserving teams in based on their body of work. Otherwise FSU would be #8 right now.

Are we sure about that? I'm not sure that's how they view it. 

With the TCU egg causing a joke of a title game last year I could see the committee being extra careful to not have that again. That could be costly to FSU although it would be a surprise to leave an undefeated team out because of injury. Will be interesting to see what happens. 

[Beau Vine 53978]

1 hour ago, MuellerHorn said:

My disagreement rests with the Oregon argument. I understand an undefeated UW is a 100% lock over Texas; but how is Oregon, as Pac-12 champion, not a lock over Texas? They've already been ranked ahead of Texas week after week and their title game win would be drastically better than Texas'.

It's because people are hung up on the fact that Oregon should not currently be in front of Texas based on resumes, and somehow those people think the committee might correct that AFTER Oregon beats an undefeated team to win their conference.  I don't understand it, but that seems to be the argument.

 

[Henry Hill 3156]

54 minutes ago, immamac said:

The last 5 pages have been the same posts over and over again. It really does feel like some of you may have lost your got damned minds. 

[dcar00 14028]

10 minutes ago, Beau Vine said:

It's because people are hung up on the fact that Oregon should not currently be in front of Texas based on resumes, and somehow those people think the committee might correct that AFTER Oregon beats an undefeated team to win their conference.  I don't understand it, but that seems to be the argument.

 

Texas beat an undefeated team as well.

[Jewish Wang 111]

23 minutes ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

No it isn't. I am disputing it. ESPN's own playoff projector disputes it. Look up the definition of the word. 

No their job isnt to put the best 4 teams in. It is to put the 4 most deserving teams in based on their body of work. Otherwise FSU would be #8 right now.

Disagree that the possibility doesn’t exist (as does like every media member), and I have a bet with a repetitive copy/paste jackass under certain parameters. 

That is absolutely the goal. 

[The_Great_Hornsby 3319]

3 minutes ago, Jewish Wang said:

Disagree that the possibility doesn’t exist (as does like every media member), and I have a bet with a repetitive copy/paste jackass under certain parameters. 

That is absolutely the goal. 

So we should expect FSU to be out even if they win? lol

[Jewish Wang 111]

20 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

If multiple teams from a single conference get in, it means that 2 of Michigan, FSU, and Texas lost. That's it. If we win, we aren't getting passed up for a team that isn't a conference champion. 

Im not just taking what the committee says their guidelines are as gospel. I'm also looking at the results of the last decade to determine what they do. The rules are blindingly obvious. They look at overall record. And then they look at conference champions. They've only had to move beyond those metrics one time to select the four playoff teams. I don't think this is the year they change that. 

There’s never been a year like this. Hence this talk and argument. I’m not overly concerned with UW losing - mainly because I think Oregon will crush them, and the PAC 12 doesn’t have the cachet that the SEC does. But I’m slightly concerned with a “they’re 1-1 on the season” narrative there. If UGA loses a close one, and FSU and Mich hold serve, you can bet your ass every bit of precedence in the last decade will be debated and challenged. You’re speaking as if UGA being left out is a foregone conclusion, and you’re 100% wrong. This is EXACTLY the year they change that. And rules?  There are no rules. 

[Left Coast 863]

17 minutes ago, Beau Vine said:

It's because people are hung up on the fact that Oregon should not currently be in front of Texas based on resumes, and somehow those people think the committee might correct that AFTER Oregon beats an undefeated team to win their conference.  I don't understand it, but that seems to be the argument.

 

It’s the same people that were sure the committee would come to its senses THIS week after they saw the result of the Tech game and realize they were making a big mistake this whole time by having Oregon over Texas.

But I’m sure if/when Oregon beats undefeated Washington the Committee will for sure move them below Texas. For sure.  

[Jewish Wang 111]

3 minutes ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

So we should expect FSU to be out even if they win? lol

No, they’ll be in as one of 3 or 4 remaining undefeateds. The fact that you of all people are using an eye test argument is hilariously ironic. 

[The_Great_Hornsby 3319]

Just now, Jewish Wang said:

No, they’ll be in as one of 3 or 4 remaining undefeateds. The fact that you of all people are using an eye test argument is hilariously ironic. 

You are so hard to debate with because you cant even follow your own logic because you are a dolt.

You said "The committee’s job is to put the best 4 teams in. Period." 

I said, "No their job isnt to put the best 4 teams in. It is to put the 4 most deserving teams in based on their body of work. Otherwise FSU would be #8 right now." (But FSU will obviously be in with a win based on their body of work)

Then you said, "That is absolutely the goal." Referring to putting the 4 best teams in.

I said "So we should expect FSU to be out even if they win? lol" (Because they clearly arent one of the four best teams at the moment)

Then you popped off with the retarded comment that you made above. Be better. 

 

[vandergriff 105]

Look, Alabama v Georgia, just like Michigan v OSU,  IS A PLAYOFF GAME.  Call them both quarterfinals.  Ohio St is currently out barring multiple upsets.  And Georgia with a loss would be out barring multiple upsets. 

Bottom line:  If Texas wins AND Florida St loses...Texas IS IN.  

PERIOD.

 

 

[UTEE97 3429]

Did anyone see tOSU being ranked above us coming? What in the actual fuck? They have no chance of winning the conference, but let's just put them ahead of other 1-loss teams who do have a chance to win their conferences. It's temporary though, just for giggles.

[BluTechsan 393]

There’s a metric regarding non-champs that you all are forgetting - having a reg season win over the champ - applies to Wash/Oregon but only them. 

And no one is projecting Wash to make it if they lose.

Georgia is the only potential CCG loser with a shot at making the top 4 and that’s because they are currently #1 - if they were 2 or lower the odds would increase for them to miss out - but they are currently #1 so they have a shot.

No one else has a shot as a non-champ - tOSU, sorry you’re out - you have zero path.

other CCG participants, doesn’t matter if your lone loss is in the CCG - lose and you’re out. 

Except UGA, and we’ve already discussed them.

So, conference champs.

I think Bama is in with a win.

and if Wash, Mich, and FSU all win - they’re in and Texas and UGA are out.

If two of those 3 lose, UT and UGA are both in.

But if just one of those 3 falls, then obviously a 1 spot opens up and I can see a scenario where UT’s loss to OU weighs more than their win over Bama and over #1 Georgia’s lone loss being to the conf champ Bama. UGA in, Horns out.

So, Texas best shot? Go Cardinals

Equally good for Texas but less likely to happen - Go Haweyes

An Oregon win? I agree that Texas chances here are massive with a win over SEC champ but I don’t trust the committee to again rank that win over the negative loss to OU vs the Duck’s loss to Udub.

 

 

[LonghornSean 3941]

I’ve just come to terms with the fact that we’re having this endless round and round discussion means it will all probably be moot/moo after the games are played.. The undefeateds will all win, leaving us on the outside looking in with no real leg to stand on.

 

Thats just our fucking luck in these things.

[C-Man 27029]

1 hour ago, dcar00 said:

this. there is no reason to schedule good OOC.  The SEC has proven this over and over again.  Yes you have to only have 1 or zero losses in conf play.  no one punishes you for not giving yourself a "chance" at a loss by scheduling a Minnesota or a Georgia Tech instead of Mich or USC.

Oregon didn't give themselves a chance to be beat by scheduling Portland State.  They played an FCS.  they should be considered 10-1. not 11-1.

they know the committee will just say "sure their SOS sucks and they scheduled FCS Portland State but had they scheduled Boise State they would have beaten them anyway".  
 

The tough OOC game helping in any signficant way is a myth.  the loss column and beating teams by 30+ is what matters.

Counterpoint -- scheduling Bama OOC and winning that game is the ONLY thing that really gives us a chance at getting into the playoffs this year. (Now, if we, Bama and Georgia all end up 12-1 and one or both of those go ahead of us, then yes, it will prove that scheduling games like makes little sense.)

[C-Man 27029]

9 minutes ago, BluTechsan said:

There’s a metric regarding non-champs that you all are forgetting - having a reg season win over the champ - applies to Wash/Oregon but only them. 

And no one is projecting Wash to make it if they lose.

Georgia is the only potential CCG loser with a shot at making the top 4 and that’s because they are currently #1 - if they were 2 or lower the odds would increase for them to miss out - but they are currently #1 so they have a shot.

No one else has a shot as a non-champ - tOSU, sorry you’re out - you have zero path.

other CCG participants, doesn’t matter if your lone loss is in the CCG - lose and you’re out. 

Except UGA, and we’ve already discussed them.

So, conference champs.

I think Bama is in with a win.

and if Wash, Mich, and FSU all win - they’re in and Texas and UGA are out.

If two of those 3 lose, UT and UGA are both in.

But if just one of those 3 falls, then obviously a 1 spot opens up and I can see a scenario where UT’s loss to OU weighs more than their win over Bama and over #1 Georgia’s lone loss being to the conf champ Bama. UGA in, Horns out.

So, Texas best shot? Go Cardinals

Equally good for Texas but less likely to happen - Go Haweyes

An Oregon win? I agree that Texas chances here are massive with a win over SEC champ but I don’t trust the committee to again rank that win over the negative loss to OU vs the Duck’s loss to Udub.

 

 

Ohio State absolutely has a path, which is why it's telling they're ahead of Texas and Bama in today's rankings. They probably only need wins by Oklahoma State and Louisville to slide into the fourth and final spot. It would be Michigan, Pac-12 champ, SEC champ and them.

[BluTechsan 393]

1 minute ago, C-Man said:

Ohio State absolutely has a path, which is why it's telling they're ahead of Texas and Bama in today's rankings. They probably only need wins by Oklahoma State and Louisville to slide into the fourth and final spot. It would be Michigan, Pac-12 champ, SEC champ and them.

I missed my edit window and my brain hurts to try and correct my error with further explanation but what you point out isn’t it as I was focused on Texas’ path which by default begins with a win vs oSu.  

[Burt 4062]

The volleyball team beating aggy Thursday night just may be enough to push us past both Ohio St and Oregon. Why is no one talking about that???

[ballrific 215]

Night Crew checking in

[52-80 19076]

The last 5 pages have been the same posts over and over again. It really does feel like some of you may have lost your got damned minds. 

[Art Vandelay 1710]

16 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

The last 5 pages have been the same posts over and over again. It really does feel like some of you may have lost your got damned minds. 

You can say that again.

[UTGrad98 2257]

4 hours ago, troph said:

Lame committee roster, wow. Not as potentially biased against us as I would have thought but the I doubt the Kansas state and Baylor guy are on our side. Token woman is not that impressive geez. 

It doesn't matter who is on the committee this year.  No one, and I mean no one is on our side. Baylor is probably leading the Oregon narrative.  

[LateAughtsHorn 588]

4 hours ago, dcar00 said:

this. there is no reason to schedule good OOC.  The SEC has proven this over and over again.  Yes you have to only have 1 or zero losses in conf play.  no one punishes you for not giving yourself a "chance" at a loss by scheduling a Minnesota or a Georgia Tech instead of Mich or USC.

Oregon didn't give themselves a chance to be beat by scheduling Portland State.  They played an FCS.  they should be considered 10-1. not 11-1.

they know the committee will just say "sure their SOS sucks and they scheduled FCS Portland State but had they scheduled Boise State they would have beaten them anyway".  
 

The tough OOC game helping in any signficant way is a myth.  the loss column and beating teams by 30+ is what matters.

In the 12 team playoff era, playing tough OOC games will probably be more beneficial from a team development standpoint. Teams will start taking more of an NFL mindset of prepping for the "real season" instead of focusing so much on the beauty contest. 

[LTtxfan 48952]

 

HaHaHaHa😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂

 

Edited November 29, 2023 by LTtxfan

[LTtxfan 48952]

Oh yeah, yeah...  sure, sure      WTF 🙄

 

Edited November 29, 2023 by LTtxfan

[LTtxfan 48952]

 

[LTtxfan 48952]

 

[Rickylovesweed 14154]

The more I think about this, I actually think playing Oklahoma State helps us if they can stay ranked in the top 25 with a loss. 

1) We add another top 25 win if Oklahoma State stays in the top 25. 

2) Our loss doesn't become worse with OU adding a 3rd loss. 

Thoughts? 

[DigglerontheHoof 21044]

7 minutes ago, Rickylovesweed said:

The more I think about this, I actually think playing Oklahoma State helps us if they can stay ranked in the top 25 with a loss. 

1) We add another top 25 win if Oklahoma State stays in the top 25. 

2) Our loss doesn't become worse with OU adding a 3rd loss. 

Thoughts? 

It's all Calvin Ball, so wtf knows. 

[LTtxfan 48952]

 

[Shaggy3.0 1695]

i blame quinn for this whole mess.  after the ousux loss, he didn't pen a new "The Promise" speech for the press to fawn over all season.

 

[gmr548 16481]

The more I think about this, I actually think playing Oklahoma State helps us if they can stay ranked in the top 25 with a loss. 
1) We add another top 25 win if Oklahoma State stays in the top 25. 
2) Our loss doesn't become worse with OU adding a 3rd loss. 
Thoughts? 

First and foremost playing OSU helps us in that it would be a colossal fuckup to lose the game. OU, I don’t think tossup is quite right but a loss would be much easier to envision.

A win over OU would help more than OSU though; higher ranked team and you get the avenged loss and beating everyone on the schedule factors. But Texas would still need all of the same help it does now so for me the higher risk of losing isn’t worth it.

OSU probably will stay ranked, the CFP committee has never really punished lower ranked CCG losers that much - which tracks logically. If number 19 or whatever loses to number 7 and doesn’t get completely embarrassed, in my mind that justifies their ranking as opposed to saying they need to be moved down.

[Welch 635]

Man, I really thought the night shift would get everything figured out for us.

[Rockethorn1978 6061]

Either way still need fsu and Oregon to lose and we will be in. If Ohio st makes it even if we win then we will know like we already do that the committee is driven by eye test only. 

[BurntOrange&White 39566]

7 hours ago, Huckleberry said:

No, that has nothing to do with it. If Alabama beats Georgia then Alabama will be higher ranked than Georgia. By definition that makes Texas's win on the road at Alabama better than Alabama's win at a neutral site against Georgia. Alabama winning on Saturday vaults them much higher in the rankings and makes it the best win of the season. Right now based on rankings Michigan can argue their win over Ohio State is the best of the season (I don't agree with that because it was closer and at home, but Ohio State is currently ranked higher than Alabama). Alabama would also be higher than Ohio State.

But what is Carson Beck's completion percentage?

[BurntOrange&White 39566]

1 hour ago, LTtxfan said:

Oh yeah, yeah...  sure, sure      WTF 🙄

 

It's almost like playing a worse SOS makes it easier to score points.

[immamac 42513]

[BurntOrange&White 39566]

5 minutes ago, Rockethorn1978 said:

Either way still need fsu and Oregon to lose and we will be in. If Ohio st makes it even if we win then we will know like we already do that the committee is driven by eye test only. 

If FSU loses Oregon/Washing result doesn't matter.

[Wilcox Cummingtonite 2859]

7 minutes ago, Welch said:

Man, I really thought the night shift would get everything figured out for us.

 

It’s ok. @The_Great_Hornsby will be along soon to berate, slur, and neg anyone who dare disagree with his hot takes. Unhinged.

Edited November 29, 2023 by Wilcox Cummingtonite

[LTtxfan 48952]

8 minutes ago, Welch said:

Man, I really thought the night shift would get everything figured out for us.

Yeah, what's up with that @Nicole44 ??? 😁

[The_Great_Hornsby 3319]

38 minutes ago, LTtxfan said:

 

Brett isnt that sharp lol