THE College Football Playoff Rankings Thread [MICH,WASH,TEX,ALA]

[TexasEd 8062]

8 minutes ago, immamac said:

I’ll bet the board on it. 

I’ll take the bet and put up tree fiddy. If I win I’ll just give it back because I don’t want to run this place. 
 

Edit: I agree with you that we don’t pass Oregon 

Edited November 29, 2023 by TexasEd

[Beau Vine 53964]

9 minutes ago, Hondo said:

Agreed, but you're going to get all kinds of pushback on this one.

 

My opinion:  

Oregon is already ahead of Texas.

Oregon beats #3 Washington to win their conference.

Texas beats #18 Oklahoma State to win theirs.

Thinking this results in Texas going in ahead of Oregon is absurd.

 

There's a ton of pretzel logic, wish casting, and transitive relation application in this thread.  It's rather amusing to see it prefaced with "you're a fucking idiot" and then closed out with "period/full stop." 

This is a great example of "choose your words carefully; you may have to eat them later."  I think the better teams will win this weekend, but there's still potential for a lot of people making "zero chance, full stop" predictions and calling people stupid to have egg on their faces.

 

[Red Five 40593]

6 minutes ago, immamac said:

I’ll bet the board on it. 

That you don't know what a 0.0% chance means? I wouldn't bet on Oklahoma St winning this weekend but if someone said they have a 0.0% chance of winning I would mock them.

[hook me 2080]

39 minutes ago, HookEm said:

I agree if Georgia wins.  There is no chance we get in over Oregon if it is a straight up decision.

But if Bama wins, I think that changes the calculation.  If we all win, they will have to decide whether to leave out the SEC, leave us out who beat Bama, or leave out the PAC 12. I think in that case Oregon COULD lose out. 

In that scenario, I put the odds of losing out at:

• Bama - 40% 
• Texas - 35%
• Oregon - 25%

Bama might jump us, but I don't think it is a certainty at all.

There's no way the committee is jumping us and Bama both up 4 spots. Last nights rankings should have been proof enough of just how little the committee thinks of us & our cute little win in lil ole Tuscaloosa. We should really stop playing those games unless the CFP committee is going to reward them accordingly. 

[Horndog 2216]

2 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

So I see this thread hasn't calmed down at all.  

Remember that time when we had thousands of posts discussing/debating/criticizing the Big 12 tiebreaker rules, only to have it come down to a simple result in the end? I'm hoping for a repeat.

[Hondo 661]

1 minute ago, Red Five said:

You started this post by agreeing with someone who, wrongly, is claiming the chance of something happening is zero. 

Don't sharpshoot.  You might look special to the people in the middle of the distribution, but not anyone else.

Of course there's a "non-zero" chance, mathematically speaking.  There's a non-zero chance I'll win the lottery tonight if I buy a single ticket.  Is there an appreciable difference between 0 tickets and 1 ticket, other than going from zero to non-zero?  Am I going to win the lottery?

I get this is an opportunity to look smart and nerd out, but in practical terms, it's pretty easy to see how it's very likely to play out.  But hey, if ya'll want to get dorky about it, have at it.  But it would be nice to see all the people trying to flex their brains actually do the math and show their work (I suspect few actually can).  

[gmr548 16463]

Also, racking up stats against weaker teams is what the committee is looking for.

[BigHornedLurker 1894]

9 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

So I see this thread hasn't calmed down at all.  

It's going to be a human centipede at least until this weekend , then hopefully something positive happens , and springs a new human centipede until Tuesday 

[immamac 42492]

11 minutes ago, Red Five said:

That you don't know what a 0.0% chance means? I wouldn't bet on Oklahoma St winning this weekend but if someone said they have a 0.0% chance of winning I would mock them.

There is literally no chance whatsoever of Texas going over Oregon who wins P12 in the CFP rankings under any circumstance that is possible. 

[NoName 16271]

16 minutes ago, Horndog said:

Can anyone explain to me why Oregon is considered to be a better team than UW? Is there an objective basis for that, or is it just that the Bo Nix has a high completion rate? It seems to me that the ascent of Oregon is largely the result of their beat down of an overhyped Colorado team. 

i only have the FEI numbers but Oregon has a significantly better defense (almost twice as many points per possession better - 0.61 / #31 for Washington vs 1.09 / #11 for Oregon) and an offense that's almost a point per possession better (1.21 / #7 for Washington vs 2.26 / #2 for Oregon)

those are opponent adjusted

F+ which is FEI and SP+ mushed together has Oregon with the #1 offense (vs #6 for Washington) and the #13 defense (vs #11 for Washington)

you can dig into the nitty gritty around the underlying stats FEI uses, but in basically every metric - adjusted and unadjusted - Oregon is better.

https://www.bcftoys.com/2023-fei/

ofei: https://www.bcftoys.com/2023-ofei

dfei: https://www.bcftoys.com/2023-dfei

[Huckleberry 32685]

35 minutes ago, Rickylovesweed said:

I don't agree at all. 

Rodemaker was 12/25 for 134 yards last weekend against Florida and Louisville has a substantially better defense. I really don't understand why there are people that think this is a lock for FSU.

I actually think Louisville is the favorite in this game. 

He's also recovering from a concussion whether they admit it or not. 

[BurntOrange&White 39486]

Just now, Huckleberry said:

He's also recovering from a concussion whether they admit it or not. 

I still can't get over them sending him back in there after he was laying motionless on the ground for at least a minute.

[immamac 42492]

In an absolute chaos scenario where everyone loses but Oregon and Texas, Oregon would still be ranked 1 and Texas would still be ranked 2. 

there is no mathematical possibility where Oregon is in the CFP that they are not the higher seed than Texas. Which includes them at #4. Texas will not be #3 or #2 over a #4 Oregon. There is no way to make it work. You are all talking about insane shit and wishcasting - a higher ranked team beating a top 4 team to get into the CFP is not getting left out under any circumstance to make room for Texas. This is not in the realm of possible including if Bo nix dies on the field. 

[Nicole44 22023]

1 hour ago, immamac said:

Guys stop it. The only actual path that isn’t chaos and some crazy bullshit is FSU losing or Texas leapfrogging and bumping FSU out. That’s it. Those are the only 2 non chaos conspiracy theory ways in. 

There is 5 power conferences. All of the champions for them can’t be in, but 4 of them will absolutely be in this one barring complete chaos on Friday/saturday. 

 

[The Dog 43771]

26 minutes ago, TexasEd said:

Now do 1 loss Oregon 

 

you’re applying math and logic where the committee has shown that it’s a popularity contest or an eye test 

This. The committee has guidelines that they ignore. What's worse is they change the criteria every week to get the result they want.

I'd compare it to how FIFA seeds World Cups - they historically change the criteria every cycle. Why? So they can choose who they want seeded and find a way to get that result.

That's what is happening here.

15 minutes ago, Horndog said:

Can anyone explain to me why Oregon is considered to be a better team than UW? Is there an objective basis for that, or is it just that the Bo Nix has a high completion rate? It seems to me that the ascent of Oregon is largely the result of their beat down of an overhyped Colorado team. 

Was going to answer this:

14 minutes ago, Rickylovesweed said:

Washington has struggled for like 6 weeks straight. They're squeaking by with wins. 

Washington and Oregon have several common opponents where Oregon has been more dominant. Here's a few examples:

Arizona State - Washington by 8 at home; Oregon by 33 on the road

Stanford - Washington by 9 on the road; Oregon by 36 on the road

Utah - Washington by 7 at home; Oregon by 29 on the road

Oregon St - Washington by 2 on the road; Oregon by 24 at home

It's kind of silly to compare scores for single games but when you have this many occurrences you can see why everyone thinks Oregon is better. 

[NoName 16271]

this is the single best dashboard/tool i've seen for CFP probabilities

https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/sam.epley/viz/WhichCollegeFootballProgramshavethebestchancestomaketheCollegeFootballPlayoff_17012629871500/CFPRankingsRatings

it has an absolute ton of ways to look at the different teams

Texas:

Oregon:

their results if UGA/Michigan/FSU/Oregon win:

if Alabama wins:

if UGA/Michigan/FSU/Texas and Washington win:

 

 

[Dahobbs 17420]

8 minutes ago, immamac said:

There is literally no chance whatsoever of Texas going over Oregon who wins P12 in the CFP rankings under any circumstance that is possible. 

Great. I'll take your bet. If Texas, Alabama, Oregon, FSU, and Michigan win, you give me the board if Alabama and Texas advance.

[immamac 42492]

Just now, The Dog said:

This. The committee has guidelines that they ignore. What's worse is they change the criteria every week to get the result they want.

I'd compare it to how FIFA seeds World Cups - they historically change the criteria every cycle. Why? So they can choose who they want seeded and find a way to get that result.

That's what is happening here.

Was going to answer this:

Washington and Oregon have several common opponents where Oregon has been more dominant. Here's a few examples:

Arizona State - Washington by 8 at home; Oregon by 33 on the road

Stanford - Washington by 9 on the road; Oregon by 36 on the road

Utah - Washington by 7 at home; Oregon by 29 on the road

Oregon St - Washington by 2 on the road; Oregon by 24 at home

It's kind of silly to compare scores for single games but when you have this many occurrences you can see why everyone thinks Oregon is better. 

Styles make fights. Washington’s style is to play close. Oregons is to try for the blowout and if it doesn’t happen you get the Washington game. People forget they already played. Oregon isn’t a magically better team than earlier in the season and Washington is certainly not worse. 

[Old Freak Nasty 818]

Has Finebaum been pressed or opined specifically on 12-1 Texas vs. 12-1 Alabama for the 4th spot?  I feel like he's trying to avoid the question by focusing in on FSU when that argument is actually irrelevant (they are above both if they win and below both if all have 1 loss).

He's a moron but moves public sentiment.

[dieucla98 2931]

6 minutes ago, immamac said:

In an absolute chaos scenario where everyone loses but Oregon and Texas, Oregon would still be ranked 1 and Texas would still be ranked 2. 

there is no mathematical possibility where Oregon is in the CFP that they are not the higher seed than Texas. Which includes them at #4. Texas will not be #3 or #2 over a #4 Oregon. There is no way to make it work. You are all talking about insane shit and wishcasting - a higher ranked team beating a top 4 team to get into the CFP is not getting left out under any circumstance to make room for Texas. This is not in the realm of possible including if Bo nix dies on the field. 

Did you forget they dropped an undefeated FSU below UO for a week because Jordan Travis was injured?

This committee is nothing if not inconsistent. UT jumping UO is possible - would take some weird shit, but it's not "literally no chance". 

Edited November 29, 2023 by dieucla98

[immamac 42492]

1 minute ago, dieucla98 said:

Did you forget they dropped an undefeated FSU below UO for a week because Jordan Travis was injured?

This committee is nothing if not inconsistent. UT jumping UO is possible - would take some weird shit, but it's not "literally no chance". 

There is actually no chance. 

[fellside 1076]

The people in this thread who think the playoff committee will do anything remotely fair or logical.

[BurntOrange&White 39486]

2 minutes ago, Old Freak Nasty said:

Has Finebaum been pressed or opined specifically on 12-1 Texas vs. 12-1 Alabama for the 4th spot?  I feel like he's trying to avoid the question by focusing in on FSU when that argument is actually irrelevant (they are above both if they win and below both if all have 1 loss).

He's a moron but moves public sentiment.

If I recall he said Texas deserves because h2h yesterday on the IT live. He also think Texas should get in over FSU even if we both win.

Edited November 29, 2023 by BurntOrange&White

[Codaxx 5588]

35 minutes ago, Red Five said:

I feel like there's a greater chance than 25% that FSU loses that game. 

I saw Louisville moneyline is +115.. There is some vig in that, so call it 45% chance to win the game. 

[immamac 42492]

I have stated why there is no chance. Someone show me how Texas jumps Oregon in the CFP rankings even with both making the playoff. 
 

picking Oregon is easy if it’s Oregon bama Michigan as 1,2,3 seeds 4th will be fsu who can be dropped in favor of Texas. There is no world where Oregon is left out and Texas is put in at #4. The time has passed for this scenario to come true. People saying there’s a chance of non 0 are relying on the rule of they can just pick teams out of thin air to go to the CFP if they wanted.  
 

OU has the same chance as Texas to get into the CFP with a 4th seeded Oregon. How’s that? It’s not non 0, but it’s only possible because it’s not impossible. 

[NoName 16271]

7 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

Great. I'll take your bet. If Texas, Alabama, Oregon, FSU, and Michigan win, you give me the board if Alabama and Texas advance.

i mean, that's the 2nd most likely scenario out there and will absolutely not happen assuming health of everyone else across the board.

Texas could win by 500 points and they wouldn't jump Oregon that is currently ranked ahead of them and beat the CFP's #3 Washington team.

the most likely scenario is Texas/Oregon/FSU/Michigan/Georgia

[Texasborn91 896]

Hope Iowa has a 3-2 win in them. 

[BurntOrange&White 39486]

4 minutes ago, Codaxx said:

I saw Louisville moneyline is +115.. There is some vig in that, so call it 45% chance to win the game. 

 

Opened at 5.5 if I'm not mistaken.

[Red Five 40593]

2 minutes ago, immamac said:

Someone show me how Texas jumps Oregon in the CFP rankings even with both making the playoff. 

This has been posted a hundred times, but which two teams go between 12-1 Oregon, Texas, and Bama? 

[Codaxx 5588]

5 minutes ago, immamac said:

I have stated why there is no chance. Someone show me how Texas jumps Oregon in the CFP rankings even with both making the playoff. 
 

picking Oregon is easy if it’s Oregon bama Michigan as 1,2,3 seeds 4th will be fsu who can be dropped in favor of Texas. There is no world where Oregon is left out and Texas is put in at #4. The time has passed for this scenario to come true. People saying there’s a chance of non 0 are relying on the rule of they can just pick teams out of thin air to go to the CFP if they wanted.  
 

OU has the same chance as Texas to get into the CFP with a 4th seeded Oregon. How’s that? It’s not non 0, but it’s only possible because it’s not impossible. 

The only chance that Texas jumps Oregon is in the 2 spots for 3 teams scenario.. Bama wins, Texas, Michigan Wins, and FSU wins. Now the committee is screwed. Leave out the SEC champ? Put Bama in, but ignore Head to Head and leave Texas out? I think they put Texas and Bama in over Oregon in that scenario, but that is a guess. 

Edited November 29, 2023 by Codaxx

[immamac 42492]

For those that want to say but what about 1 loss Oregon Alabama and Texas!!! 
 

texas didn’t beat #1 back to back champion Georgia. There is no fucking world where I would even pick the longhorns to go over Alabama in that scenario. Stop it. 
 

Texas plays #18 OK State. And Lost to #14 Oklahoma or something. 

Alabama plays #1 and lost to #7 

Oregon Lost to #3 and can revenge it. 

this isn’t fucking hard stop being conspiracy theorists. We aren’t playing undefeated #2 Oklahoma in a revenge game. 

[NoName 16271]

8 minutes ago, Codaxx said:

I saw Louisville moneyline is +115.. There is some vig in that, so call it 45% chance to win the game. 

the prediction tracker line (not sure who they use) has it dropping from 6.5 when it opened to 2.5 as the updated line. midweek has yet to come out/hasn't been added yet

Edited November 29, 2023 by NoName

[Huckleberry 32685]

1 minute ago, immamac said:

texas didn’t beat #1 back to back champion Georgia. There is no fucking world where I would even pick the longhorns to go over Alabama in that scenario. Stop it. 

So you're a moron. All you had to say. 

[Red Five 40593]

1 minute ago, immamac said:

There is no fucking world where I would even pick the longhorns to go over Alabama in that scenario. Stop it.

Oh so there is a zero percent chance Texas goes over Oregon, because you also wouldn't pick us over Bama. Think I'm seeing the problem now.

[Codaxx 5588]

3 minutes ago, NoName said:

the prediction tracker line (not sure who they use) has it dropping from 6.5 when it opened to 2.5 as the updated line. midweek has yet to come out/hasn't been added yet

??? That is Vegas, all the CFP stuff is done of models. 

[Js1 85056]

Can it just be Sunday?

[Vic Mackey 46919]

6 minutes ago, immamac said:

For those that want to say but what about 1 loss Oregon Alabama and Texas!!! 
 

texas didn’t beat #1 back to back champion Georgia. There is no fucking world where I would even pick the longhorns to go over Alabama in that scenario. Stop it. 
 

Texas plays #18 OK State. And Lost to #14 Oklahoma or something. 

Alabama plays #1 and lost to #7 

Oregon Lost to #3 and can revenge it. 

this isn’t fucking hard stop being conspiracy theorists. We aren’t playing undefeated #2 Oklahoma in a revenge game. 

And yet Texas beat that Bama team head to head, in their own house. That doesn't mean anything? 

[Lou_Sassle 2864]

Jesus Christ... this thread is like a room full of monkeys slinging shit at each other. 

[The_Great_Hornsby 3319]

40 minutes ago, hook me said:

There's no way the committee is jumping us and Bama both up 4 spots. Last nights rankings should have been proof enough of just how little the committee thinks of us & our cute little win in lil ole Tuscaloosa. We should really stop playing those games unless the CFP committee is going to reward them accordingly. 

They think enough of it to have us in front of Bama for the whole year and the last spot could come down to a debate between us and Bama. At least they appear to be respecting the head to head result. 

[immamac 42492]

4 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

So you're a moron. All you had to say. 

 

3 minutes ago, Red Five said:

Oh so there is a zero percent chance Texas goes over Oregon, because you also wouldn't pick us over Bama. Think I'm seeing the problem now.

Is this a fucking joke? You think they take Texas over bama knocking off #1 Georgia in the SECCG? What world do you live in where you think beating the #1 ranked team in the country doesn’t get you into the playoffs? You think they intentionally didn’t put Michigan in that top spot literally for this discussion point? 

[JBJ 3647]

10 minutes ago, NoName said:

Texas could win by 500 points and they wouldn't jump Oregon that is currently ranked ahead of them and beat the CFP's #3 Washington team.

This is wrong because the committee has signaled that they don't care about the resumes.  If Nix completes less than 70% of his passes there's a good chance the committee drops Oregon.

Sarcasm meters.

[immamac 42492]

1 minute ago, Vic Mackey said:

And yet Texas beat that Bama team head to head, in their own house. That doesn't mean anything? 

It doesn’t when they just knocked off #1. 

[The_Great_Hornsby 3319]

1 minute ago, immamac said:

 

Is this a fucking joke? You think they take Texas over bama knocking off #1 Georgia in the SECCG? What world do you live in where you think beating the #1 ranked team in the country doesn’t get you into the playoffs? You think they intentionally didn’t put Michigan in that top spot literally for this discussion point? 

Per ESPN: 

 

No. 8 Alabama: Path to the playoff: Win the SEC and hope Texas loses. Or win the SEC and have Florida State lose; that would leave Michigan, the Pac-12 champion, Alabama and Texas in the top four. The selection committee would consider one-loss Georgia and one-loss Ohio State in this scenario, but it would be difficult for them to justify, considering Alabama would have knocked off its top team, and Texas would have a win against the SEC champs. If Texas loses but Florida State wins, the top four could be Michigan, the Pac-12 champion, Florida State and Alabama.

 

[Matagorda 118]

24 minutes ago, immamac said:

In an absolute chaos scenario where everyone loses but Oregon and Texas, Oregon would still be ranked 1 and Texas would still be ranked 2. 

there is no mathematical possibility where Oregon is in the CFP that they are not the higher seed than Texas. Which includes them at #4. Texas will not be #3 or #2 over a #4 Oregon. There is no way to make it work. You are all talking about insane shit and wishcasting - a higher ranked team beating a top 4 team to get into the CFP is not getting left out under any circumstance to make room for Texas. This is not in the realm of possible including if Bo nix dies on the field. 

The conspiracy theorist in me says this is all about money and TV rankings. If you allow for human corruption, this is how we go in ahead of Oregon if FSU loses and Bama wins:

#1 meatchicken vs #4 Oregon

thus allowing for ratings explosion #2 Texas vs # 3 Bama and the amazing ad sales that follow.  

otherwise, yea, they stay ahead. 

 

[C-Man 26991]

So you're a moron. All you had to say. 

aggy gonna aggy

[Beau Vine 53964]

5 minutes ago, Codaxx said:

??? That is Vegas, all the CFP stuff is done of models. 

Do you think the Vegas lines come from some dude named Vinny, or computer models?

[Red Five 40593]

3 minutes ago, immamac said:

It doesn’t when they just knocked off #1. 

Even Bama fans think Texas has to lose. 

[tokamak 6350]

First off, the idea that the committee would or should leave out an undefeated FSU is preposterous to me. I simply refuse to believe that's even possible.

That being said, the thing that Finebaum and the "maybe FSU shouldn't get in regardless" squad seem to be forgetting is that Louisville is a solid team. Probably overrated at #14, but definitely top 25-ish. If FSU takes care of business against them, that's another feather in their cap.

[Reynolds Woodcock 4656]

It’s actually making me feel better that immamac is being so definitive. He’s usually wrong about almost everything football related.

 

[immamac 42492]

1 minute ago, Red Five said:

Even Bama fans think Texas has to lose. 

I don’t remember beating the #1 team in the country this season, could just be my bad memory though.