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THE College Football Playoff Rankings Thread [MICH,WASH,TEX,ALA]

texifornia

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ztejas

ztejas 43244

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The CFP is potentially digging themselves a grave with this Oregon/Ohio State bullshit. Everyone saying it doesn't matter for Texas that tOSU is above us might be right - but it's going to be an issue for the committee if Bama, FSU and Oregon all win. 

You have to take two of three of Bama/Texas/Oregon. Two of those teams you've kept ranked below the other one this entire time. One of them would be the SEC champ. You gonna leave them out? You gonna leave the team that beat that team by 10 on the road out? You gonna leave the team that you've insisted is the best one-loss team in the country this entire time out? 

I hope that does happen (if FSU wins, obviously) and these dipshits get flamed regardless of what they do because they're a bunch of pussies that won't move Texas and Bama ahead of an Ohio State team that has zero chance to make the playoff. 

All they had to do was put UO, Texas and Bama right behind the undefeateds in any order. Then, come next Tuesday, you can slot them however you want. But apparently Oregon is in some special tier over Bama and Texas. Have fun dealing with that fucking mess if it happens. 

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9 hours ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

You are so hard to debate with because you cant even follow your own logic because you are a dolt.

You said "The committee’s job is to put the best 4 teams in. Period." 

I said, "No their job isnt to put the best 4 teams in. It is to put the 4 most deserving teams in based on their body of work. Otherwise FSU would be #8 right now." (But FSU will obviously be in with a win based on their body of work)

Then you said, "That is absolutely the goal." Referring to putting the 4 best teams in.

I said "So we should expect FSU to be out even if they win? lol" (Because they clearly arent one of the four best teams at the moment)

Then you popped off with the retarded comment that you made above. Be better. 

 

I’m done arguing with you dude. I even hope you’re 100% right on UGA not making it with a 3 point loss to Bama, and I pay you $100. Because that will mean we make it. But you’re extremely incapable of rational conversation. I’m not even saying you’re wrong. I’m saying I don’t know, versus your irreverent cockdaddy attitude. It’s tiresome. 

We are on the same team.

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Hondo

Hondo 661

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Posted
13 minutes ago, Red Five said:

This has been posted a hundred times, but which two teams go between 12-1 Oregon, Texas, and Bama? 

Oregon for sure, and then Texas or Alabama. 

The models say that favors Texas, but if I was going to put money on it, I'd lay it on "Texas has the head-to-head, but Alabama just knocked off 2 x defending champ and 28 game win streak Georgia" with the addition of some "SEC this and SEC that" stuff.

Oregon and Bama.  We're out.

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Huckleberry

Huckleberry 32684

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5 minutes ago, immamac said:

 

Is this a fucking joke? You think they take Texas over bama knocking off #1 Georgia in the SECCG? What world do you live in where you think beating the #1 ranked team in the country doesn’t get you into the playoffs? You think they intentionally didn’t put Michigan in that top spot literally for this discussion point? 

Georgia wouldn't be the #1 team in that scenario. Texas would have the same record, similar strength of schedule, a better win (Alabama would be higher ranked than Georgia), and a head to head win at Alabama. Saying you see no way in the world you would put Texas over Alabama yourself was an absurd thing to say. 

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Dahobbs

Dahobbs 17420

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11 minutes ago, NoName said:

i mean, that's the 2nd most likely scenario out there and will absolutely not happen assuming health of everyone else across the board.

Texas could win by 500 points and they wouldn't jump Oregon that is currently ranked ahead of them and beat the CFP's #3 Washington team.

image.thumb.png.450b411d52e386ca7d64969ebd64e820.png

the most likely scenario is Texas/Oregon/FSU/Michigan/Georgia

image.thumb.png.2f66ea18812bdff42291e4cb6bcdde05.png

But Oregon will not have beat the #3 CFP team. It will have beat like #10 (Washington will drop like a stone after the loss). Texas however will have beat the #3 CFP team (Alabama) in the final rankings. Y'all keep thinking the rankings are sticky like the old polls and BCS. They aren't. Previous weeks don't matter. The committee has pretty clearly looked at at everything fresh with the final rankings every single year. We don't need to "jump" Oregon because Oregon's current spot only exists based on the results as they stand. Alabama beating Georgia will change those spots. 

Really though, my point isn't to give a definitive answer as to what will happen. My point is only that we need to root for outcomes that give us as many pathways to the CFP as possible. Starting Friday, that means rooting for Oregon. If Washington wins, we lose all possibility of taking the Pac-12 spot. On Saturday (after rooting for Texas), we need to root for Alabama. If Georgia wins, that eliminates all possibility of us taking the SEC spot. Iowa and Louisville are the obvious evening chances, and either winning puts us in. 

 

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Dahobbs

Dahobbs 17420

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6 minutes ago, immamac said:

I don’t remember beating the #1 team in the country this season, could just be my bad memory though. 

Neither would have Alabama. Georgia will not be #1 in the final rankings with the a loss. Alabama will be ahead of them. And we'll have the highest ranked win in the final CFP rankings. Hell, Alabama may actually end up #1 if Washington, Michigan, and FSU lose. Stop looking at the rankings as they are today. Look at them as they will be after the dust settles. That is how the committee has done it year after year. 

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ChickenNuggets

ChickenNuggets 1610

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6 minutes ago, Frank Drebin said:

Texas needs to win.  And for one of the following to happen.

FSU loss.

Georgia loss.

Michigan loss.

FSU is in with a win.  That is a stone cold lock.

They will get smoked in round one of playoffs.  But they are in.  So the 1 seed basically gets a bye.

How does a Georgia or Michigan loss help? 

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Dahobbs

Dahobbs 17420

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1 minute ago, ChickenNuggets said:

How does a Georgia or Michigan loss help? 

If Michigan loses, we are in. A Michigan loss means there can be at most four 12-1 or better conference champions. Basically, the Big 10 spot becomes open and we slide in. 

A Georgia loss leaves open a slim pathway that we take the SEC spot over Alabama or that we take the Pac-12 spot in a best 2 of 3 between us, Oregon, and Alabama. 

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Jewish Wang

Jewish Wang 111

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Posted
2 hours ago, Dahobbs said:

So they'll pass up on Oregon and Texas to put in two SEC teams? I mean, that is possible, but it is extremely unlikely and would be completely against precedent. Given that we are in beauty pageant mode in this scenario, I'm not really worried about it. Nothing is guaranteed here, but I think the order of likelihood is Texas/Bama, Oregon/Bama, Texas/Oregon, Texas/Georgia, and then Bama/Georgia. Even if you disagree with this order, this scenario still gives Texas a chance unlike if Georgia and Washington win. Hence the zero reason to root for Georgia and Washington. 

Fair point, and I made a mistake by saying “if FSU holds serve”. But in this scenario, Michigan is definitely in. Oregon is definitely in. Yeah, I think in event of a close Ga loss, Bama and UGA both go and FSU gets left out. I’m not certain we are ever really serious part of the discussion behind the scenes. Of course a lot of this depends on performance but with a blowout of OSU, and close uninspiring FSU win, maybe we become a serious part of discussion but we are the odd teams out. 

It takes FSU losing for us to have ANY shot. IF they lose, Bama winning only hurts us by increasing the number of real competitors from 4 (I’m excluding tOSU), where we are likely in at #4, to 5 (again excluding tOSU), and that 5th is the most dominant team in CFP generation.  Thus, it’s stupid to root for Bama at 3 pm. 

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immamac

immamac 42492

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Just now, ChickenNuggets said:

How does a Georgia or Michigan loss help? 

They fall out of the top 4 so anyone not in the top 4 can get in. This is the mathematical possibility everyone keeps saying exists, in reality if Michigan loses and everyone else wins it’s irrelevant because that means Oregon lost again and Texas goes. 
if Georgia loses Texas has the H2H argument and that means the Oregon win is irrelevant. (This scenario includes Texas and Oregon) 

there is literally no mathematical way to leave Oregon out with a win and have Texas jump them. You can have Texas left out because of bama, but not because of Oregon. 2 different things. Oregon wins and is in. Bama wins and it’s weird, but they don’t leave Oregon out. 

if ONLY one of those things happens and the P12 winner is Washington it’s Texas and Bama or Texas and Ohio State 

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immamac

immamac 42492

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1 minute ago, Huckleberry said:

Georgia loss is at least debatable. How in the world does a Michigan loss (won't happen) not help? 

I think the debate is real for Texas Bama on merit. It’s not for Texas Bama and Oregon for a single spot, because by nature of that being the case there are in fact 2 spots available. 

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ChickenNuggets

ChickenNuggets 1610

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1 minute ago, Dahobbs said:

If Michigan loses, we are in. A Michigan loss means there can be at most four 12-1 or better conference champions. Basically, the Big 10 spot becomes open and we slide in. 

A Georgia loss leaves open a slim pathway that we take the SEC spot over Alabama or that we take the Pac-12 spot in a best 2 of 3 between us, Oregon, and Alabama. 

nah... 

a. no way SEC doesn't have representation. I think the committee would put both Bama and Georgia in the playoff and leave Big12 out - I don't agree, i just think they'd do it.

b. I think the committee would still rank a 12-1 Michigan team higher than a 12-1 Texas team (plus no way Iowa wins and Ohio State is still ranked ahead of us) - again, I don't agree, but I think that's how they'd score it.

 

 

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Codaxx

Codaxx 5588

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1 minute ago, immamac said:

I think the debate is real for Texas Bama on merit. It’s not for Texas Bama and Oregon for a single spot, because by nature of that being the case there are in fact 2 spots available. 

that is true.. It is harder for Texas to just straight out jump Oregon for 1 spot. I think the playoff committee rankings reflect what they think/hope will happen. A Bama win would certainly increase the Texas resume. I know the committee has not followed resume to date, but they are now starting to get heat about that from various spots.. Texas needs to win. An impressive win would also seriously help. Back to Back 50 pt wins would put the committee in a bind. We shall see how it plays out

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immamac

immamac 42492

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Just now, Codaxx said:

that is true.. It is harder for Texas to just straight out jump Oregon for 1 spot. I think the playoff committee rankings reflect what they think/hope will happen. A Bama win would certainly increase the Texas resume. I know the committee has not followed resume to date, but they are now starting to get heat about that from various spots.. Texas needs to win. An impressive win would also seriously help. Back to Back 50 pt wins would put the committee in a bind. We shall see how it plays out

I think we are finally on common ground, but this is a chaos scenario that doesn’t really have much to do with Oregon or Texas as much as it does Bama Texas. 

I know better than to think the CFP committee drops Oregon and takes Texas Bama over them. lol 

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Dahobbs

Dahobbs 17420

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4 minutes ago, ChickenNuggets said:

nah... 

a. no way SEC doesn't have representation. I think the committee would put both Bama and Georgia in the playoff and leave Big12 out - I don't agree, i just think they'd do it.

b. I think the committee would still rank a 12-1 Michigan team higher than a 12-1 Texas team (plus no way Iowa wins and Ohio State is still ranked ahead of us) - again, I don't agree, but I think that's how they'd score it.

 

 

LOL, that is ridiculous. Again, a non-conference champion has never gotten in over a conference champion with the same record. Multiple times conference champions have "jumped" over non-conference champions with the same record. 

Just now, Codaxx said:

Iowa 1st half pts is even money at 0.5 pts, so I dont have much faith in Iowa winning

Bet the under. 

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Vic Mackey

Vic Mackey 46919

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2 minutes ago, ChickenNuggets said:

nah... 

a. no way SEC doesn't have representation. I think the committee would put both Bama and Georgia in the playoff and leave Big12 out - I don't agree, i just think they'd do it.

b. I think the committee would still rank a 12-1 Michigan team higher than a 12-1 Texas team (plus no way Iowa wins and Ohio State is still ranked ahead of us) - again, I don't agree, but I think that's how they'd score it.

 

 

I don't see any way the committee ranks a non conference champion Michigan team who lost to fucking Iowa over a Big 12 champion Texas. If this becomes the case, then what is the point of anything about the college football season? Last year, TCU stayed in the top 4 with losing to KSU but this year is different. Last year, the ACC and Pac-12 both had no teams in the mix. This year, the top 4 should be 4 conference champions. 

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joeycovers

joeycovers 358

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All I hear is they want the "4 best teams" in the playoffs yet all they seem to focus on is the W/L column. Bama, UT, Oregon, Wash can all be debated endlessly but NOBODY with a straight thinks FSU is a top 4 team. Not without Jordan Travis. The only eye test they have is them escaping against a 5-7 team. 

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13391

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Posted (edited)
27 minutes ago, Frank Drebin said:

Texas needs to win.  And for one of the following to happen.

FSU loss.

Georgia loss.

Michigan loss.

FSU is in with a win.  That is a stone cold lock.

They will get smoked in round one of playoffs.  But they are in.  So the 1 seed basically gets a bye.

Simple post but 100% spot on. The PAC12 has a spot locked up so their game doesn't impact us. A FSU, Mich, or GA loss means that Texas and potentially Bama has a conf championship plus the same record. Conf champion is in the CFP rules as meaning something. Some years it doesn't matter but 2023 is not one of those years.

The one exception that I see is that Bama beating GA could create a scenario where both of them make it, almost certainly leaving us out. There is just too much SEC love by the powers in charge.

Edited by Nice Guy Eddie
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Codaxx

Codaxx 5588

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Just now, immamac said:

I think we are finally on common ground, but this is a chaos scenario that doesn’t really have much to do with Oregon or Texas as much as it does Bama Texas. 

I know better than to think the CFP committee drops Oregon and takes Texas Bama over them. lol 

I think Oregon's greatest risk of missing the playoffs is in the 2 spots for 3 teams. That is where Bama/SEC and Head/head comes to play.. Texas needs Bama to win, to have any chance of passing Oregon. 

 

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hook me

hook me 2080

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Posted
18 minutes ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

They think enough of it to have us in front of Bama for the whole year and the last spot could come down to a debate between us and Bama. At least they appear to be respecting the head to head result. 

Bama =/= UO so it's a moot point. This particular committee has shown their affinity for beating bad teams by a lot instead of better teams by a little. We're not jumping UO with a Bama win. If the P5 champs are UT, Bama, UO, FSU, & UM it'll be us vs. Bama vying for the last spot. How that ends up coming out of the grinder is, obviously, up for debate. But the committee has made it clear that we're not nipping on UO's heels like I thought we were 2 weeks ago, they view them as the definitively better team & them beating UW would only solidify that.

Which is all a bunch of bullshit, but it is what it is at this point. The B1G has gotten the benefit of the doubt for the entire playoff system, & the PAC is somehow getting the benefit of the doubt this year for reasons only the committee knows.

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Hondo

Hondo 661

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2 minutes ago, Vic Mackey said:

If Michigan loses to Iowa and we beat Oklahoma St to win the Big 12, we should be good. Iowa obviously isn't in the mix. Ohio St is not getting in over us for a spot. Definitely need to root for Iowa. And obviously Lousiville.

SEC Champ is in, whether UGA or Alabama

PAC-12 Champ is in, whether Oregon or Washington

If Texas gets in, it will be in the slot vacated by Big 10 or ACC with a Michigan or FSU loss.

 

SEC Champ

PAC-12 Champ

ACC/Big 10 Champ

Texas

 

If BOTH FSU and Michigan lose, then that's where a 1-loss non conference champ UGA or Ohio State starts coming into play.

Texas in one of those slots and UGA/OSU in the other.

 

SEC Champ

PAC-12 Champ

Texas

UGA or Ohio State

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Huckleberry

Huckleberry 32684

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10 minutes ago, ChickenNuggets said:

nah... 

a. no way SEC doesn't have representation. I think the committee would put both Bama and Georgia in the playoff and leave Big12 out - I don't agree, i just think they'd do it.

b. I think the committee would still rank a 12-1 Michigan team higher than a 12-1 Texas team (plus no way Iowa wins and Ohio State is still ranked ahead of us) - again, I don't agree, but I think that's how they'd score it.

 

 

This is a bad post and you should feel bad for making it. 

Again, never in the history of the playoff had a non-champion gone ahead of a P5 champion with the same number of losses. Never. Ever. 

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Codaxx

Codaxx 5588

Posted
Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, joeycovers said:

All I hear is they want the "4 best teams" in the playoffs yet all they seem to focus on is the W/L column. Bama, UT, Oregon, Wash can all be debated endlessly but NOBODY with a straight thinks FSU is a top 4 team. Not without Jordan Travis. The only eye test they have is them escaping against a 5-7 team. 

Committee chair only talked about Bo Nix and his 78% completion, when confronted with Texas having a better resume (better win, SOS, and same opponent performance), only to say FSU is more the than their QB 2 minutes later. Hard to say WTF they are looking at

Edited by Codaxx
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babysdaddy

babysdaddy 2711

Posted
Posted

I think the only possibility of Texas jumping Oregon revolves around alabama winning this weekend (and assuming Oregon and Texas win).  This also assumes Michigan and FSU win. 

2 spots for 3 teams.  You have to make guesses on bias of committee.  I think #1 bias that has been there for last 20 years is SEC is the best conference.  Therefor Alabama gets the nod.  Then you have to hope and pray the drums are so loud that you can’t leave out a team that beat Bama.  If you discount that SEC bias, and Oregon is a lock because they beat Washington, then you have to hope that the head to head matters and can’t be discounted by “but that was week 2”.  In either scenario there is more than enough wiggle room to leave Horns out and emotionally we should prepare for that outcome.  

 

As multiple people have pointed out, safest way in for us is either a Michigan loss or FSU loss.  Otherwise get ready to get fucked.

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