THE College Football Playoff Rankings Thread [MICH,WASH,TEX,ALA]

[Beau Vine 53964]

13 minutes ago, immamac said:

This is the correct scenario for everyone to be rooting for. 

So I can get crowd-sourced in December?

[C-Man 26991]

31 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

my point is that we should already be above Oregon based on SOS difference of 40 spots+ with the same record and loss to OU.  we beat the other teams on our schedule which was much harder.  If Oregon plays our schedule they lose 2 games at least.

I 100% agree with that. I'm simply arguing the single point that without the Bama win, Texas isn't even in the discussion unless EVERY favored team lost this weekend except us. (And that still *might* not be enough.)

[Red Five 40593]

1 minute ago, idigTexas said:

I'm sick of seeing the "they beat the 2x defending champion" argument. 

Wow, and they must be really good! No way to know how we'd match up though, however. 

[immamac 42492]

1 minute ago, idigTexas said:

I'm sick of seeing the "they beat the 2x defending champion" argument.  What the fuck does Georgia's accomplishments from the previous two seasons have to do with this season?  

A lot, because Georgia hasn't lost a game in so long it's actually a bit absurd. 

[Vertuzzi 1351]

23 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

You disagree with head-to-head results, given two P5 conference champs with identical records?  OK, I guess.

You really think the committee is going to leave out a 1-loss, SEC champ Alabama? Unfortunately for us, the committee doesn’t give a fuck about Texas like they do Alabama. The winner of the SEC championship gets in.

[Modessit 5595]

Too much to catch up on to read it all.

I expect that we only have one shot - Georgia, Michigan, Washington, Texas and Louisville win. That's it.

If Michigan, Florida State, Washington, Texas, and Alabama win, I know we're getting screwed and they'll put Bama in over us and use the excuse that they're playing better at the end of the season than we are and beating #1 is better than beating whatever Bama's rank was at the time. They won't care about the head-to-head win.

If Georgia, Michigan, Florida State, Texas, and Oregon St win, they'll put in OregonSt and leave us out.

If Alabama, Michigan, Florida State, Oregon State, and Texas win, I wouldn't be surprised to see them put in Alabama AND Georgia and leave us and Oregon St out. Otherwise, they'll still put in Bama and OregonSt.

I fully expect to be screwed by Bama winning and jumping us. The only way we stay ahead is if we both get in, and that doesn't seem likely.

[C-Man 26991]

15 minutes ago, immamac said:

This is the correct scenario for everyone to be rooting for. 

Yeah, that's where I'm at. Quick question -- do our rooting interests change if Oregon beats Washington as expected on Friday night?

(Obviously, an Iowa win does nothing but help everybody so technically we're all Hawkeyes fans on Saturday night.)

[immamac 42492]

1 minute ago, Vertuzzi said:

You really think the committee is going to leave out a 1-loss, SEC champ Alabama? Unfortunately for us, the committee doesn’t give a fuck about Texas like they do Alabama. The winner of the SEC championship gets in.

This is actually debatable though, Texas going in over Oregon is not. That was my point earlier in the thread. 

[idigTexas 2258]

1 minute ago, immamac said:

A lot, because Georgia hasn't lost a game in so long it's actually a bit absurd. 

So what?  What teams would also be undefeated having played Georgia's schedule THIS SEASON?    

[Js1 85056]

6 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Why the hell would any Texas fan want Michigan to win

I would like to see the Texas DL versus Blake Corum. 

[Codaxx 5588]

Just now, Wilcox Cummingtonite said:

No they don’t. Louisville only. Others don’t matter, because we aren’t getting in over Bama or Oregon if they win. The only realistic way we make the playoff is if Louisville beats FSU and we win. If Bama beats Georgia, they’ll probably put both in because they can do what they want.
 

And Michigan isn’t losing to a terrible Iowa team. 

Lville win is the best chacne for Texas to get in, but not the only

Lets look a this logically:

1. Michigan vs Iowa.... Michigan wins the are a stone cold lock to get in.. Iowa loss opens up a slot in the playoffs. In that scenario, Texas has a better chance to make the playoffs with a Iowa win (highly unlikely).. So rooting for Michigan would be counterproductive to increasing Texas's chance of making the playoffs

2. UGa vs Bama. UGa is a lock. 100% certainty they get in over Texas.. Texas has head to head over Bama, so a Bama win helps the Texas resume... You can believe that Bama gets in over Texas, but not with 100% certainty. Root for Bama

3. Wash vs Oregon.. This is the same.. Washington is a 100% lock to get in over Texas with a win. Oregon maybe 95% chance to get in over Texas, but it is not 100% like Washington.. Root for Oregon

4.. WE all agree on Lville vs FSU

[Hondo 661]

 

About the only thing more predictable than Oregon being in the CFP with a win is Beau Vine following me around, "drooling" on every post.  

Reminds me of my 2 year old niece when she didn't have the vocabulary to express herself, so she just stomped around all angsty.  Use your words, little buddy.  Tell me what's wrong.

 

[immamac 42492]

Just now, idigTexas said:

So what?  What teams would also be undefeated having played Georgia's schedule THIS SEASON?    

that's unfortunately not how it works in the real world, although based on merit this is the correct stance. 

[JBJ 3647]

9 minutes ago, joeycovers said:

I cant think of one situation where scheduling tough OOC games has helped the team that won make the playoffs. It has only hurt them when they lose.  Maybe Ohio St/Ou the year they split is the only one but not sure. 

 

next year for example the Mich game will be awesome. If we lose that game though along with say UGA and Fla and have 3 losses we are going to be in this same shitty scenario. We have the best win all year my many opinions and it still likely wont be enough. 

Alabama basically has little chance to make the playoffs based solely on an OOC matchup.   If they didn't play uss this year, people would be talking about how UGA and Bama both need to be in regardless of who wins Saturday.

[Dahobbs 17420]

18 minutes ago, immamac said:

This is the correct scenario for everyone to be rooting for. 

It is a scenario that would be good for us, but you're really putting almost all of your eggs in the Louisville basket. There is no reason not to root for Oregon and Iowa as well. We have a less of chance of advancing if Washington wins on Friday. It really is that simple. 

[Codaxx 5588]

17 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

What does 2.5 pay?  Only takes one play on offense or defense to set up a field goal. 

its even money

[hook me 2080]

2 minutes ago, joeycovers said:

I cant think of one situation where scheduling tough OOC games has helped the team that won make the playoffs. It has only hurt them when they lose.  Maybe Ohio St/Ou the year they split is the only one but not sure. 

 

next year for example the Mich game will be awesome. If we lose that game though along with say UGA and Fla and have 3 losses we are going to be in this same shitty scenario. We have the best win all year my many opinions and it still likely wont be enough. 

This is where I'm at (other than losing to Fla because that's not happening). It's exactly what Bama is facing this year. Play a tough OOC opponent, get beat, go undefeated the rest of the way & win your conference & you still need help.

Next year it won't keep that team out of the playoffs, but it could very well be the difference between having a first round bye or not. Or, if you add another loss, the difference between having home field advantage in the first round or not. It'd be much better for your playoff chances to just not schedule those games & go 10-2 or 11-1. 

[immamac 42492]

Just now, Dahobbs said:

It is a scenario that would be good for us, but you're really putting almost all of your eggs in the Louisville basket. There is no reason not to root for Oregon and Iowa as well. We have a less of chance of advancing if Washington wins on Friday. It really is that simple. 

you root for EVERY scenario that has Texas in on that chart, this one is just the "most fun one" IMHO

[Wilcox Cummingtonite 2855]

Wait- I thought the drool reaction was a positive/good thing? 
 

[immamac 42492]

instead of quoting so it shows up for errbody.

[Js1 85056]

11 minutes ago, joeycovers said:

I cant think of one situation where scheduling tough OOC games has helped the team that won make the playoffs. It has only hurt them when they lose.  Maybe Ohio St/Ou the year they split is the only one but not sure. 

 

next year for example the Mich game will be awesome. If we lose that game though along with say UGA and Fla and have 3 losses we are going to be in this same shitty scenario. We have the best win all year my many opinions and it still likely wont be enough. 

Next year, with CFP games on campuses, tough OOC games, especially on the road, will be the best way to prepare for hitting the road in the CFP if seeded 9, 10, 11 or 12. 

[idigTexas 2258]

I'm rooting for Nix and Penix to be knocked out in the first quarter for the rest of the season, and for Oregon to win 6-2 with both teams turning the ball over 5 times.  

[Wilcox Cummingtonite 2855]

4 minutes ago, Codaxx said:

Lville win is the best chacne for Texas to get in, but not the only

Lets look a this logically:

1. Michigan vs Iowa.... Michigan wins the are a stone cold lock to get in.. Iowa loss opens up a slot in the playoffs. In that scenario, Texas has a better chance to make the playoffs with a Iowa win (highly unlikely).. So rooting for Michigan would be counterproductive to increasing Texas's chance of making the playoffs

2. UGa vs Bama. UGa is a lock. 100% certainty they get in over Texas.. Texas has head to head over Bama, so a Bama win helps the Texas resume... You can believe that Bama gets in over Texas, but not with 100% certainty. Root for Bama

3. Wash vs Oregon.. This is the same.. Washington is a 100% lock to get in over Texas with a win. Oregon maybe 95% chance to get in over Texas, but it is not 100% like Washington.. Root for Oregon

4.. WE all agree on Lville vs FSU

You have more faith than me if Bama wins. I feel like they aren’t leaving out the SEC champ no matter what. 

their justification- 

Bama win vs. Georgia > Texas win vs. Bama

[immamac 42492]

1 minute ago, idigTexas said:

I'm rooting for Nix and Penix to be knocked out in the first quarter for the rest of the season, and for Oregon to win 6-2 with both teams turning the ball over 5 times.  

I'm rooting for OT that doesn't end until the Playoffs start so the committee just leaves both teams out.

Just now, Wilcox Cummingtonite said:

You have more faith than me if Bama wins. I feel like they aren’t leaving out the SEC champ no matter what. 

their justification- 

Bama win vs. Georgia > Texas win vs. Bama

I share this sentiment, but there is room for debate here IMO. 

[BurntOrange&White 39486]

I am rooting for Iowa because a BIG title game score of 13-7 with Michigan having nearly 400 yards of offense to Iowa's 175 would be hilarious. 

[Codaxx 5588]

4 minutes ago, Wilcox Cummingtonite said:

You have more faith than me if Bama wins. I feel like they aren’t leaving out the SEC champ no matter what. 

their justification- 

Bama win vs. Georgia > Texas win vs. Bama

You dont need faith. This shit is simple. Texas has 0% chance of getting in over an undefeated Georgia.. We can argue over the odds of Texas vs Baama for the last spot, but Bama doesnt have a 100% chance to get in over Texas...  Texas has 0% chance to get in over undefeated teams. Texas has somewhere between a 1%-99% chance to get in over a 1 loss team. Even if you think it is a 1% chance, that is still greater than 0%

Edited November 29, 2023 by Codaxx

[Jewish Wang 111]

1 hour ago, immamac said:

 

Is this a fucking joke? You think they take Texas over bama knocking off #1 Georgia in the SECCG? What world do you live in where you think beating the #1 ranked team in the country doesn’t get you into the playoffs? You think they intentionally didn’t put Michigan in that top spot literally for this discussion point? 

The odds of us getting in over UGA are slim and I put money on it (and I’d say very slim to the point of infinitesimal). But, they’re not joking. They are resolute in their absolutism. It’s baffling. 

[jimmyjazz 45513]

6 minutes ago, immamac said:

you root for EVERY scenario that has Texas in on that chart, this one is just the "most fun one" IMHO

Then you need to write better.

Iowa -- stone cold preference

Louisville -- stone cold preference

 

Then it gets weird.  Don't come in here scolding people for their versions of lunacy when you basically say "this is what we want" when it is ABSOLUTELY not what we want, for fuck's sake.

I thought times were bad when Syntex was running the numbers.

[C-Man 26991]

9 minutes ago, C-Man said:

Yeah, that's where I'm at. Quick question -- do our rooting interests change if Oregon beats Washington as expected on Friday night?

(Obviously, an Iowa win does nothing but help everybody so technically we're all Hawkeyes fans on Saturday night.)

Changed my mind. Obviously, we're all rooting for Iowa but it won't happen. Beyond that, I agree we need spots to open up so therefore an Oregon win helps. Bama beating Georgia helps. Louisville beating FSU puts Texas in without a doubt if Texas wins Big 12. There are five conference championship games being played this weekend. In addition to us beating OkSt, we need either Louisville to win or two of Iowa/Bama/Oregon to win, yes?

[Nicole44 22023]

4 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

I am rooting for Iowa because a BIG title game score of 13-7 with Michigan having nearly 400 yards of offense to Iowa's 175 would be hilarious. 

Same. This outcome would be outstanding no matter what. 

[jimmyjazz 45513]

3 minutes ago, Codaxx said:

Texas has 0% chance to get in over undefeated teams.

FSU is the possible outlier there, but yeah, it's remote.  Really remote.

[Jewish Wang 111]

45 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

You disagree with head-to-head results, given two P5 conference champs with identical records?  OK, I guess.

Doesn’t much matter what I think. I absolutely know the committee will have Bama jump us and probably to the 2 spot. Like it’s not even a question they will be in. 

If that’s so funny, @jimmyjazz, lay money down. Offer me a bet. 

Edited November 29, 2023 by Jewish Wang

[Dahobbs 17420]

5 minutes ago, immamac said:

you root for EVERY scenario that has Texas in on that chart, this one is just the "most fun one" IMHO

Any scenario with Texas is acceptable. I'm just saying you can't root for every scenario with Texas because the games aren't played at the same time. Oregon/Washington comes up first. The only thing we can do is root for Oregon because it increases our chances, even if marginally, to make the playoffs. The same is true for Alabama/Georgia. Root for Alabama because it increases our changes of advancing. This would all be a lot easier if the ACC champ was Friday and Louisville won. Then, you'd could root for whatever you want the rest of the games in terms of idea matchups because we'd already be in (with a win). 

12 minutes ago, immamac said:

This is a Texas fan's dream Playoff scenario, who gives a fuck about the Oregon ducks - I'd rather play Washigton.

No. Washington is bad matchup for us. Any team that is willing to completely abandon the run and just throw 50-60 times in a game is going to cause us problems. We matchup better with the more balanced teams. 

[jimmyjazz 45513]

Just now, C-Man said:

Changed my mind. Obviously, we're all rooting for Iowa but it won't happen. 

Well, they're #7 in total defense, so things can get weird.  (Michigan is #2, though.)

[ITHorn 797]

Putting the obvious benefit to Texas aside, Iowa winning would be one of the funniest outcomes in a very long time. Kirk Ferentz finally gives in to the pressure to let go of his son only to watch him call the game of a lifetime with both middle fingers up on the way out the door. 

[Jewish Wang 111]

29 minutes ago, hook me said:

By slotting OSU between us the committee has made its plan clear w/ regards to championship weekend. For those saying "these rankings don't matter until the last one" you're just wrong because the committee is going to base their next set of rankings off of this one + new results. Will we jump OSU with a win? Most likely yes, but they've eliminated any debate that we could have had over whether or not we could win impressively enough to jump UO should they win in an ugly manner. Their reasoning? Because UO dispatched of Oregon St. with ease which is another PAC team that the committee really respects. How do we know that? Because they were ranked 11 a couple of weeks ago before their close loss to UW (and because the CFP chair literally said so). The committee isn't setting us up for a complete upheaval of the top 5 this week unless complete chaos ensues. We know exactly where everyone stands & the only result that may change things is a Bama upset over UGA. Otherwise you're going to get UM, UW/UO, FSU/UT, & UGA. And UT better not limp to the finish line vs. OKST because it's pretty clear that they don't respect UTs SOS as it is.

Totally agreed. The tOSU ranking is a big big deal being willfully ignored by posters here.  

[Js1 85056]

2 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

FSU is the possible outlier there, but yeah, it's remote.  Really remote.

I would have such a problem with any 1-loss team going over an undefeated FSU.

If FSU beats UF (done) and top-15 Louisville with their backup, they should be in.  You win all your games + CCG as a P5, you're in.  Everytime. 

[Reynolds Woodcock 4656]

11 minutes ago, immamac said:

This is actually debatable though, Texas going in over Oregon is not. That was my point earlier in the thread. 

It’s been explained a million times, but why the hell not. Texas, Michigan, Alabama, Oregon and Louisville win.

Michigan is locked. The committee thinks Alabama and Georgia are 2 of the best 4 (taking into account Georgia’s incredible 3 year run, as you’ve pointed out), so they want to find a way to put in both. They can’t get over putting Bama over Texas given head to head. So they justify Texas jumping Oregon by our win over Alabama looking that much better by virtue of Alabama beating Georgia. Michigan, Texas, Alabama and Georgia go in, Oregon gets fucked.
 

It’s unlikely (and Georgia going in would be unprecedented (albeit a small sample size)), but it’s not 0%. The reality is that the committee can do whatever the fuck they want and find justification for it. 

[Dahobbs 17420]

6 minutes ago, Jewish Wang said:

The odds of us getting in over UGA are slim and I put money on it (and I’d say very slim to the point of infinitesimal). But, they’re not joking. They are resolute in their absolutism. It’s baffling. 

??? If Bama beats UGA, we're definitely getting in over UGA if those are the options (FSU or Michigan loses). No one thinks we get in over UGA if UGA wins. 

[Tex-19 2869]

It's really not that complicated. We aren't jumping Oregon regardless of what we think should happen. Our only chances are:

1. FSU loses and UGA wins - almost definitely in

2. FSU loses and Bama wins - Probably in but could the committee go full-SEC and put UGA and Bama in over us? Tbh it's possible. Hard to leave UGA out and Bama has to jump them.

3. FSU wins and Bama wins - comes down to Texas vs Bama. Pretty much a coin flip what these idiots would decide but I don't feel great about the chances of them completely leaving out the SEC.

So yeah - #1 is clearly the best case scenario. The others are all still dicey. Again, this isn't what I think should be the case in a fair world, it's just the reality.

Of course, none of this matters if we don't take care of business vs Ok St. Let's worry about that first..

[Jewish Wang 111]

2 minutes ago, Js1 said:

I would have such a problem with any 1-loss team going over an undefeated FSU.

If FSU beats UF (done) and top-15 Louisville with their backup, they should be in.  You win all your games + CCG as a P5, you're in.  Everytime. 

I would have zero problem going ahead of FSU. Fuck any school not Texas. Neither Texas nor FSU created this shitshow system and I would have no shame. 

[Dahobbs 17420]

6 minutes ago, C-Man said:

Changed my mind. Obviously, we're all rooting for Iowa but it won't happen. Beyond that, I agree we need spots to open up so therefore an Oregon win helps. Bama beating Georgia helps. Louisville beating FSU puts Texas in without a doubt if Texas wins Big 12. There are five conference championship games being played this weekend. In addition to us beating OkSt, we need either Louisville to win or two of Iowa/Bama/Oregon to win, yes?

Iowa winning is the same as Louisville, either puts us in.

[BluTechsan 393]

8 minutes ago, Wilcox Cummingtonite said:

You have more faith than me if Bama wins. I feel like they aren’t leaving out the SEC champ no matter what. 

their justification- 

Bama win vs. Georgia > Texas win vs. Bama

no

the justification will be that the UT loss to OU > Bama the loss UT > the UGA loss to Bama

[Jewish Wang 111]

1 minute ago, Dahobbs said:

??? If Bama beats UGA, we're definitely getting in over UGA if those are the options (FSU or Michigan loses). No one thinks we get in over UGA if UGA wins. 

I’d say half the media thinks exactly that, and a quarter of the posters here do. And, I’ll bet you too under the right parameters. 

[BlackCat 415]

8 minutes ago, Jewish Wang said:

Doesn’t much matter what I think. I absolutely know the committee will have Bama jump us and probably to the 2 spot. Like it’s not even a question they will be in. 

I 100% agree. Bama wins and they are in. Committee has made it clear winning your conference matters a good bit. 

[Dahobbs 17420]

2 minutes ago, Jewish Wang said:

I’d say half the media thinks exactly that, and a quarter of the posters here do. And, I’ll bet you too under the right parameters. 

I'll bet $100,000 right now that if FSU or Michigan loses, and Texas and Alabama wins, we are in over Georgia. There is zero chance we are left out for Georgia if there is one spot at play. 

[Beau Vine 53964]

16 minutes ago, immamac said:

I'm rooting for OT that doesn't end until the Playoffs start so the committee just leaves both teams out.

And that's why Larry Scott agreed to have the P12 Championship played on a Friday night.

[Dahobbs 17420]

1 minute ago, BlackCat said:

I 100% agree. Bama wins and they are in. Committee has made it clear winning your conference matters a good bit. 

Bama wins and it is in in my opinion (although we have a small chance). But he apparently thinks a 1-loss Georgia also gets in over us. That's insanity. 

[Jewish Wang 111]

Just now, Dahobbs said:

I'll bet $100,000 right now that if FSU or Michigan loses, and Texas and Alabama wins, we are in over Georgia. There is zero chance we are left out for Georgia if there is one spot at play. 

If one loses, not both, and you provide the right parameters, and lower the amount, I’ll absolutely take that bet

[immamac 42492]

Just now, Jewish Wang said:

If one loses, not both, and you provide the right parameters, and lower the amount, I’ll absolutely take that bet

that's what he said lol thats what the OR word means.