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THE College Football Playoff Rankings Thread [MICH,WASH,TEX,ALA]

texifornia

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TheBryMan81

TheBryMan81 2503

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, jimmyjazz said:

I wish.  

Look at the CFP rankings last year:  #3 TCU lost to #10 KSU, yet TCU didn't drop and KSU only moved up to #9.  A close game between #1 UGA and say #6 Bama might turn out similarly.  Probably not, but I know enough to be skeptical of the committee's "logic".

What you're overlooking is that KSt already had 3 losses at the time and that was TCU's first loss. There's no way they would move 3 loss KSt into playoff spots and they couldn't justify moving TCU down that far because their resume to that point was still better than everyone below them.

In this case, you'd be comparing a 1 loss Georgia with a 1 loss Bama with the H2H win over Georgia

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jimmyjazz

jimmyjazz 45565

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Just now, TheBryMan81 said:

What you're overlooking is that KSt already had 3 losses at the time and that was TCU's first loss. There's no way they would move 3 loss KSt into playoff spots and they couldn't justify moving TCU down that far because their resume to that point was still better than everyone below them.

In this case, you'd be comparing a 1 loss Georgia with a 1 loss Bama with the H2H win over Georgia

Of course.  Now imagine Texas loses one or more games going forward.  How bad does Bama's loss look?

Again, not even close to a prediction.  Just making a point that people who vote on these things do stupid shit fairly often.

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Doc Sam Beckett

Doc Sam Beckett 5784

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If Bama beats Georgia, they are for sure ahead of Georgia. What I wouldn’t want any part of in that scenario, is needing the 4th seed. One loss back to back defending national champions from the secsecsec? I sure as shit wouldn't want to hope my conference championship is enough to grab that last seed. 

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troph

troph 24575

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

They are putting it out there that a 1 loss Texas and 1 loss Bama at the end of the season could finish ahead of an undefeated FSU. Very interesting. Things like this arent planted without purpose. 

KH did not seem like he was a resounding yes to that, sounded more like he didn't have time to have that conversation so he said "yeah, it could" with a look of surprise.  I don't see how you leave out undefeated FSU, undefeated Big 10, undefeated Washington, and then it's Bama vs. Texas in that scenerio. Both conference champions, but with amazing singular wins. Both with solid wins over a handful of top 25. Texas has the head to head, Bama has the SEC, SEC, SEC and most recent spectacular win. 

That's too close to call to be quite honest and without style points the next three weeks, that's not a bet I'd be willing to take. At that point it feels like the outside looking in because well Tuck Fexas as the OU and Arky folks used to say.  Hate to admit it, but while the ratings love us, I think there are some decision makers over the years whether heisman voting or beauty contest ratings that don't.

Now if it's FSU and Big 10 that are undefeated and Pac-12 is one loss along with Bama and Texas, I think it's FSU, Big 10, Bama and Texas. I think the Pac-12 has to be perfect on this one to make it through IMO unless the dust settles and Texas Bama aren't there to demand a 1-loss spot. 

So to me, we are now Bama and Oregon State/Oregon fans.

Edited by troph
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The_Great_Hornsby

The_Great_Hornsby 3329

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51 minutes ago, troph said:

KH did not seem like he was a resounding yes to that, sounded more like he didn't have time to have that conversation so he said "yeah, it could" with a look of surprise.  I don't see how you leave out undefeated FSU, undefeated Big 10, undefeated Washington, and then it's Bama vs. Texas in that scenerio. Both conference champions, but with amazing singular wins. Both with solid wins over a handful of top 25. Texas has the head to head, Bama has the SEC, SEC, SEC and most recent spectacular win. 

That's too close to call to be quite honest and without style points the next three weeks, that's not a bet I'd be willing to take. At that point it feels like the outside looking in because well Tuck Fexas as the OU and Arky folks used to say.  Hate to admit it, but while the ratings love us, I think there are some decision makers over the years whether heisman voting or beauty contest ratings that don't.

Now if it's FSU and Big 10 that are undefeated and Pac-12 is one loss along with Bama and Texas, I think it's FSU, Big 10, Bama and Texas. I think the Pac-12 has to be perfect on this one to make it through IMO unless the dust settles and Texas Bama aren't there to demand a 1-loss spot. 

So to me, we are now Bama and Oregon State/Oregon fans.

Yeah, I agree with you. I think if Georgia beats Bama, they would probably keep Oregon in front of us if they end us PAC champs. But if Bama beats Georgia, and we finish with 1 loss. I think Oregon gets left out.  So I agree with you, if FSU doesnt lose for us, then we are going to need Bama to beat Georgia and a 1 loss PAC champion to get in. 

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troph

troph 24575

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Just now, TrashMaster G said:

Whatever weaknesses Texas may have, we're not getting boatraced by anyone.

I agree with this. There are too many weapons on offense as long as QE is in the game to utilize them (even without Brooks) and for all of Sark's faults, being prepared with a brilliant offensive game plan in big games is absolutely not one of those faults. QE has also shown he can show up in the big game - Bama x2, even OU x2 - he did bring us down the field to take the lead.  Texas D-line will man the fuck up and stop the run at least enough to make our opponent's pass game and our pass defense where this is won and lost.

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troph

troph 24575

Posted
Posted (edited)
48 minutes ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

Yeah, I agree with you. I think if Georgia beats Bama, they would probably keep Oregon in front of us if they end us PAC champs. But if Bama beats Georgia, and we finish with 1 loss. I think Oregon gets left out.  So I agree with you, if FSU doesnt lose for us, then we are going to need Bama to beat Georgia and a 1 loss PAC champion to get in. 

to recap in easier to see format for those following along...

Scenario #1

FSU undefeated - in
Big 10 champ undefeated - in
Washington Pac 12 champ undefeated - in
Bama beats UGA - toss up between Texas and Bama - my nod is PTSD induced but it goes to Bama (especially if Texas can't blow out the next three games)

Scenario #2

FSU undefeated - in
Big 10 champ undefeated - in
Pac 12 champ has 1 loss - out
Bama beats UGA - Bama is in
Texas wins out - Texas is in

Scenario #3

FSU undefeated - in
Big 10 champ undefeated - in
UGA undefeated - in
Bama 2 losses - out
Pac 12 Champ 1 loss vs. Texas for the fourth position - toss up, I think Pac 12 is in (quality of win goes down with 2 losses for Bama).

Right now, I think Scenario 1 and 2 are our best chances, but Scenario 2 is our best chance. 

Interestingly, we were previously relying on getting that marquee win in December in a rematch with OU for the one loss team with the two best wins (Bama and OU rematch). As it stands we are having to rely solely on Bama and that is why we need them to win out.

Go Beaves!!

Roll Tide!!!

Edited by troph
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Bama Llama

Bama Llama 1447

Posted
Posted

“Bama (hypothetically) beats Georgia” . .    . add internet CFP ranking rant. Have you guys ever watched any fucking part of a Bama - Auburn game?  There’s a possibility we handle Georgia but it means nothing unless we overcome the incessant noise and inevitable juju at Possum Hair stadium.  Talk to me on Sunday after Thanksgiving.  After 9/9/23 I’m just relieved we have a pulse, much less a chance.  If we do beat Georgia after choking on the Plains, I hope it puts the Horns in the playoff.

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troph

troph 24575

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Posted
1 hour ago, Bama Llama said:

“Bama (hypothetically) beats Georgia” . .    . add internet CFP ranking rant. Have you guys ever watched any fucking part of a Bama - Auburn game?  There’s a possibility we handle Georgia but it means nothing unless we overcome the incessant noise and inevitable juju at Possum Hair stadium.  Talk to me on Sunday after Thanksgiving.  After 9/9/23 I’m just relieved we have a pulse, much less a chance.  If we do beat Georgia after choking on the Plains, I hope it puts the Horns in the playoff.

Welcome to college football bro. Shit man, we have Iowa fucking state Saturday and they are going to be on fire Saturday. Fuck that shit.

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gmr548

gmr548 16519

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Posted
15 hours ago, TrashMaster G said:

Whatever weaknesses Texas may have, we're not getting boatraced by anyone.

This. We've been sitting here watching this team play down to competition for the past month and a half but remember they also tend to play up to it as well. And the schematic tendencies that end up letting beaten opponents back in games don't really come out when you never go up by 20.

 

12 hours ago, Bama Llama said:

“Bama (hypothetically) beats Georgia” . .    . add internet CFP ranking rant. Have you guys ever watched any fucking part of a Bama - Auburn game?  There’s a possibility we handle Georgia but it means nothing unless we overcome the incessant noise and inevitable juju at Possum Hair stadium.  Talk to me on Sunday after Thanksgiving.  After 9/9/23 I’m just relieved we have a pulse, much less a chance.  If we do beat Georgia after choking on the Plains, I hope it puts the Horns in the playoff.

It's all just hypotheticals. In reality the Oregon-Texas-Bama comparison that is the flavor of the month discussion right now is unlikely to even be relevant at the end. Oregon has a heated rivalry game against a really solid Oregon State team and a rematch with Washington to get through. Alabama has to go play at Auburn and then beat Georgia. Texas's remaining regular season opponents don't scare anyone but they have been trying to lose lately, and then there's a Big 12 championship game. Odds are there's a L, or multiple, for that group in there somewhere that renders the whole discussion moot.

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troph

troph 24575

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Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, hookem2010 said:

If Florida wants to just knock out FSU sans Travis, beaver makes up for their near miss against Oregon (not likely, I know), and Oregon beats Washington, that would be cool. I don't think we're a very dominant team, but still feel we'd have a chance against anyone if we got in.

The only teams that worry me are ironically the ones that might keep us out - Washington and Oregon. I think we are already an SEC team. I think we can handle Michigan and Georgia. Bama finally running Milroe is a bit concerning but not nearly as much as Nix and Penix.

Edited by troph
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hookem2010

hookem2010 2600

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15 minutes ago, troph said:

The only teams that worry me are ironically the ones that might keep us out - Washington and Oregon. I think we are already an SEC team. I think we can handle Michigan and Georgia. Bama finally running Milroe is a bit concerning but not nearly as much as Nix and Penix.

Agreed, I'd hate to watch our secondary against either of them. But it seems unlikely that we're in if a pac12 team makes it, as you mentioned.

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Pancho

Pancho 44492

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Posted

We will be 7th again. 

Some of the CFP gurus are saying this right now: 

- We want Alabama to win out because the committee will like our win at Alabama

- However, what’s going to hurt us is the lack of B12 teams we’ve played being in the top 25 making it likely other teams end with more impressive resumes

 

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flatdawgs

flatdawgs 1267

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4 hours ago, Horny04 said:

So if the beavers can beat the ducks, the ducks beat the huskies, bama beats UGA, fsu loses, and we win out...

Then what?

If the Beavs beat the Ducks on Friday, odds are high that Arizona will play UW in the Pac-12 CCG (Zona would just need to beat ASU Saturday in that situation).

Go Beavs!

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The_Great_Hornsby

The_Great_Hornsby 3329

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Posted

UPDATED PLAYOFF SCENARIOS:

This is all assuming Texas wins out.

Texas gets in guaranteed:

1) Florida State loses to either Florida/ACC finalist (ACC misses playoff) OR the committee leaves out undefeated Florida State because their starting QB is hurt (I have seen ESPN talking about how devastating injuries are factored into the equation, expect them to drop behind Washington to 5 this week?)

2) Oregon beats Washington but Oregon drops a game to OSU before they beat Washington (PAC misses playoff), This one seems unlikely to happen now because if Oregon loses to OSU, then Arizona will play Washington in the PAC championship, so we would need Washington to lose to Zona. PAC missing the playoff seeming like a decent long shot.

Less likely but very plausible scenarios:

3) Bama beats Georgia, Texas gets the nod over a 1 loss Pac 12 Champ Oregon by virtue of a H2H road win against the SEC champ (PAC misses playoff)

4) Bama beats Georgia, Texas gets the nod over Bama by virtue of a H2H road win (assuming Washington wins out, SEC misses the playoff)

More unlikely:

5) Georgia loses to Bama and Bama loses to Auburn prior to that result (SEC misses playoff)

Very unlikely scenario:

6) Ohio St/Mich winner loses the Big 10 champ game to Iowa (lol) (Big 10 misses playoff)

 

It seems like the most realistic and probable path is option 1 and I do think it will happen. Florida is playing better and fighting for bowl eligibility and they will be at home against FSU. And Louisville will have every chance in the world to beat FSU without their starting QB. 

Texas needs to win out. 

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Js1

Js1 85131

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Posted

Texas needs to be hammering the media about their SOS to argue top one loss team if we win the Big 12 championship 

Texas - 10-1 Alabama, 5-6 Rice, 7-4 Wyoming

Alabama - 10-1 Texas, 7-4 Chattanooga (FCS), 4-7 Middle Tennessee, 5-6 USF

Oregon - 5-6 Portland State, 6-5 Texas Tech, 4-8 Hawaii 

Would be very helpful if Rice wins next week against Herman and all our non-conf is bowl .500 or better 

As it stands, we have wins over 5 bowl eligible teams currently, with a win over Tech (6), and Rice (7) if they win, and potentially an 8th or 9th (TCU/BYU) and then a 10th with our Big 12 CCG opponent

If things fall our way, we can argue we beat 10 bowl eligible teams in our 13 games - only outliers would be Baylor and UH. 

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The_Great_Hornsby

The_Great_Hornsby 3329

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Posted
4 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Texas needs to be hammering the media about their SOS to argue top one loss team if we win the Big 12 championship 

Texas - 10-1 Alabama, 5-6 Rice, 7-4 Wyoming

Alabama - 10-1 Texas, 7-4 Chattanooga (FCS), 4-7 Middle Tennessee, 5-6 USF

Oregon - 5-6 Portland State, 6-5 Texas Tech, 4-8 Hawaii 

Would be very helpful if Rice wins next week against Herman and all our non-conf is bowl .500 or better 

As it stands, we have wins over 5 bowl eligible teams currently, with a win over Tech (6), and Rice (7) if they win, and potentially an 8th or 9th (TCU/BYU) and then a 10th with our Big 12 CCG opponent

If things fall our way, we can argue we beat 10 bowl eligible teams in our 13 games - only outliers would be Baylor and UH. 

I agree 1000%. Oregon is clearly the weakest 1 loss team in that group and the dipshit committee is using nothing but "eye test" to elevate them above Texas and Bama. It is so stupid. 

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troph

troph 24575

Posted
Posted (edited)

Really needed west coast OSU to beat WA last night ugh. 
 

FSU could lose now. 
 

other than that we need Oregon to win out, Bama to win out and we slip stream in via SEC SEC SEC partly because we are on our way there and mostly because Fuck the SEC we beat them in Tusky at night. 
 

it’d be really great if Texas could put together two complete ass whippings the next two weeks too. Somehow getting to avenge our loss to OU would be good too but fuck OU nothing good comes from seeing them advance anywhere. 

Edited by troph
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Left Coast

Left Coast 863

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Posted
12 minutes ago, troph said:

Really needed west coast OSU to beat WA last night ugh. 
 

FSU could lose now. 
 

other than that we need Oregon to win out, Bama to win out and we slip stream in via SEC SEC SEC partly because we are on our way there and mostly because Fuck the SEC we beat them in Tusky at night. 
 

it’d be really great if Texas could put together two complete ass whippings the next two weeks too. Somehow getting to avenge our loss to OU would be good too but fuck OU nothing good comes from seeing them advance anywhere. 

If Oregon wins out they are in the CFP in my opinion. Wins over Oregon State and an (potential) avenging win against UW for the conference championship in their next 2 games? In.

I think FSU gets left out, mostly because I think they will lose to Louisville w/o their QB.

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Js1

Js1 85131

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Posted
Just now, Left Coast said:

If Oregon wins out they are in the CFP in my opinion. Wins over Oregon State and an (potential) avenging win against UW for the conference championship in their next 2 games? In.

I think FSU gets left out, mostly because I think they will lose to Louisville w/o their QB.

Yeah, as said above, our way in is an FSU loss and then they just take the Big 12, B1G, Pac and SEC champs.  Either FSU loses the ACC champ game or they drop one to Florida, which would be the worst loss of the one-loss champs

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The_Great_Hornsby

The_Great_Hornsby 3329

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Yeah, as said above, our way in is an FSU loss and then they just take the Big 12, B1G, Pac and SEC champs.  Either FSU loses the ACC champ game or they drop one to Florida, which would be the worst loss of the one-loss champs

Agreed. This is the most direct route for Texas to get in. There are other ways but they require a lot of things to go our way or the committee to value us highly. 

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Hondo

Hondo 661

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Posted

A lot of people seem to think if Alabama beats UGA in the SECCG, then UGA will still be in the CFP as a 1-loss non-conference champ, blocking out Texas (assuming we win out).

- Big 10 champ (Michigan or Ohio State)

- Pac-12 champ (Washington or Oregon)

- SEC champ (Alabama)

+ UGA

It would be bullshit, but I could see it happening.

 

Of course, once again, don't lose to OU on the last play of the game and it's a non-issue.

 

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Js1

Js1 85131

Posted
Posted (edited)

1-loss conference champion Texas isn’t being left out if it’s against SEC champ game loser Georgia for that last spot. We’d have a common opponent in Bama - we won. And would be conference champions and they would not be. 

2018 is the only year a one-loss team with a conference championship game win was left out, and Ohio State had lost to 6-7 Purdue by 29 points. One-loss Big 12 champ OU made it over them. You had undefeated Bama, Clemson, ND and then it was between two one-loss conf champs OU and Ohio State

Edited by Js1
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