THE College Football Playoff Rankings Thread [MICH,WASH,TEX,ALA]

[ChickenNuggets 1610]

[Texas Flood 1356]

[blutow 222]

21 minutes ago, ztejas said:

Y'all are delusional if you think that the CFP is going to honor the h2h shit between us and Bama to where it would be impossible for them to jump us.

It's ironic that the majority of Texas fans seem to be thinking this way while the majority of Bama fans are thinking Bama is out under this scenario.  Everyone seems pretty sure that they are doomed.    

8 minutes ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

2) The committee values the Texas win over Bama. They had all season to drop us behind Bama and have not done that. They had some big wins in some games where we scraped by and they never moved them in front of us. The committee is telling us that the head to head matters. I think if Texas wins by 14+ and looks good doing it and Bama wins a close game, we are in and they will honor the head to head. I think if Bama boatraces Georgia and we win a strugglefuck with OSU, we probably are out. We have the upper hand at the moment though. 

This is exactly where I'm at.  The committee is certainly dreading this scenario more than any other, but I think they would lean Texas unless Bama looked really good and Texas looked bad in wins.  Most of the models lean Texas in this scenario and most of the media is saying Texas in this scenario.  It might be delusional and it's far from certain, but it seems like the most common line of thinking (even from the Bama/SEC homers).  I think the ESPN model has this right, it's around 60% chance Texas gets in over Bama in this situation.  

[Texasborn91 896]

24 minutes ago, ChickenNuggets said:

At least the thread is on topic…. Wait til we are in the off season thread talking about god knows fucking what. This thread will be a reminder of better times. 

[JBJ 3647]

6 minutes ago, blutow said:

It's ironic that the majority of Texas fans seem to be thinking this way while the majority of Bama fans are thinking Bama is out under this scenario.  Everyone seems pretty sure that they are doomed.

Emotional hedging.

I actually think the committee's rankings are pretty defensible, but they do a shit job actually justifying/explaining them to the press.

Also, the 12-team format doesn't fix the problem.

[Red Five 40593]

2 minutes ago, JBJ said:

Also, the 12-team format doesn't fix the problem.

It sort of does. The arguments shift to some 9-3 teams as opposed to say Texas vs Alabama. 

[Js1 85056]

3 minutes ago, JBJ said:

I actually think the committee's rankings are pretty defensible, but they do a shit job actually justifying/explaining them to the press.

Jesus, this. They throw someone out there on Tuesday with no coaching on how to message the rankings. It’s a clown show that only looks competent when put up against the Big 12 tie breaker “clarifications” 

[immamac 42492]

Just now, Red Five said:

It sort of does. The arguments shift to some 9-3 teams as opposed to say Texas vs Alabama. 

That’s not true. The argument will shift to seeding. Seeds 8-12 don’t really matter all that much and people will find that out as time goes on. 8-12 are reserved for the long shots and teams that are surging late or had a big injury mid season that came back. 

[MrX 708]

6 minutes ago, JBJ said:

Emotional hedging.

I actually think the committee's rankings are pretty defensible, but they do a shit job actually justifying/explaining them to the press.

Also, the 12-team format doesn't fix the problem.

It helps it some. Fierce debate over the 11th and 12th teams doesn’t hit as hard. We’d be sitting here wringing hands over whether we get to host our first game on campus or not. 

[ChickenNuggets 1610]

18 minutes ago, Texasborn91 said:

At least the thread is on topic…. Wait til we are in the off season thread talking about god knows fucking what. This thread will be a reminder of better times. 

Oh... I'm calling it now... we'll go round and round in circles as to whether Arch should start over Quinn once Malik enters the portal... 

[The_Great_Hornsby 3319]

13 minutes ago, ChickenNuggets said:

Oh... I'm calling it now... we'll go round and round in circles as to whether Arch should start over Quinn once Malik enters the portal... 

We would never start Arch over our defending national champion QB Ewers. He will have to wait his turn.

[Dnaguy 11740]

7 hours ago, Coelenterate Fuccboi said:

We live to complain.

Surly motto?

[dcar00 14023]

38 minutes ago, immamac said:

That’s not true. The argument will shift to seeding. Seeds 8-12 don’t really matter all that much and people will find that out as time goes on. 8-12 are reserved for the long shots and teams that are surging late or had a big injury mid season that came back. 

12 probably gets all P4/5 conf champs as well.

[sidis 9713]

first, focusdness on okie state.  bill in sinton levels.  need an emphatic performance in arlington.  not being greedy and asking for 2005 colorado ccg but we can't have a 2009 corn ccg.

then...

Louisville, Louisville, Louisville.

Louisville.

we need you louisville.

that's all there is to it.

go cards.

[dcar00 14023]

1 hour ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

 I think the committee has made their positions very clear if we have been paying attention to their rankings. 

1) They have separated Oregon from Texas and Bama for a reason. They are sending a message that their game is a play in game. I think anything short of Bo Nix having his ACL exploded in an ugly win for Oregon will result in them making the playoffs. So I very much doubt they will be left out. 

2) The committee values the Texas win over Bama. They had all season to drop us behind Bama and have not done that. They had some big wins in some games where we scraped by and they never moved them in front of us. The committee is telling us that the head to head matters. I think if Texas wins by 14+ and looks good doing it and Bama wins a close game, we are in and they will honor the head to head. I think if Bama boatraces Georgia and we win a strugglefuck with OSU, we probably are out. We have the upper hand at the moment though. 

Bama will have just beaten Ga. the 2 time defending NC from the SECSECSEC.  easy to declare that is better than head to head in September.  The Big 12 is shitty fallacy is still out there.  

If we boatrace OSU maybe.

[Brothahorn 10085]

Now we get to argue hypotheticals for this year about a system that doesn't even exist yet.

Prime Surly

[Park Gothic 4949]

46 minutes ago, immamac said:

That’s not true. The argument will shift to seeding. Seeds 8-12 don’t really matter all that much and people will find that out as time goes on. 8-12 are reserved for the long shots and teams that are surging late or had a big injury mid season that came back. 

Seeding and getting the bye due to winning the conference. Getting that bye, at the end of the season, will be a massive advantage. Rest, getting over injuries, and planning for the next game.

That's why I think the 5-12 teams are kinda boned. Playing that extra game against strong competition will be brutal, only to be followed up by even stronger competition. 

[Horn Dogg 3805]

5 minutes ago, Park Gothic said:

Seeding and getting the bye due to winning the conference. Getting that bye, at the end of the season, will be a massive advantage. Rest, getting over injuries, and planning for the next game.

That's why I think the 5-12 teams are kinda boned. Playing that extra game against strong competition will be brutal, only to be followed up by even stronger competition. 

Have you ever watched the NFL playoffs?

[Beau Vine 53964]

1 hour ago, ztejas said:

Y'all are delusional if you think that the CFP is going to honor the h2h shit between us and Bama to where it would be impossible for them to jump us.

That said - I think they'd just fuck Oregon over in that scenario so as to not have to deal with it. 

[Park Gothic 4949]

9 minutes ago, Horn Dogg said:

Have you ever watched the NFL playoffs?

Do you think the NFL is comparable to college?

[Valmy77 13092]

3 minutes ago, Park Gothic said:

Do you think the NFL is comparable to college?

Not yet.

But it will be when we introduce this 12 team playoff. Then we'll see. It is not unheard of for some two loss team to be absolutely destroying people by the end of the season, but in the past it was too little too late.

Next year maybe it won't be.

Edited November 30, 2023 by Valmy77

[DanTheHorn 4893]

4 minutes ago, Horn Dogg said:

Have you ever watched the NFL playoffs?

Yup there will be a team that starts slow that has similar talent to top seeded teams and it will get hot at the right time and win the CFP. That is why the season will no longer mean what it use to mean but there are always trade offs.

[DanTheHorn 4893]

3 hours ago, LTtxfan said:

NSIAP...

 

I was not sold on the bit until Greg McElroy showed up.

[Tex Long 4326]

13 hours ago, Pancho said:

All of Klatt’s arguments were “this is what I would do, this is what I think the committee would do.”

So while it’s flattering, he keeps it real. 

This is what I like about Klatt. He's pretty much straight up about his opinions, and he doesn't have a problem owning his mistakes after the fact.

Same is true of Josh Pate, although he has some pretty annoying takes on SEC and particularly aggy. I think Late Kick and TexAgs are owned by the same people, so it's kinda understandable... but it's still pretty annoying.

[The Dog 43771]

 

[immamac 42492]

59 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

12 probably gets all P4/5 conf champs as well.

Well since you know it’s kind of the rules that happens then yeah it’s gonna happen lol. 

[Reynolds Woodcock 4656]

2 hours ago, blutow said:

This is exactly where I'm at.  The committee is certainly dreading this scenario more than any other, but I think they would lean Texas unless Bama looked really good and Texas looked bad in wins.  Most of the models lean Texas in this scenario and most of the media is saying Texas in this scenario.  It might be delusional and it's far from certain, but it seems like the most common line of thinking (even from the Bama/SEC homers).  I think the ESPN model has this right, it's around 60% chance Texas gets in over Bama in this situation.  

I think they probably fuck FSU in that scenario absent a true beat down of Louisville. Doofus chairman's first words about FSU were something like "they are a different team". That's why I continue to think it's really clear that we should be rooting for Bama, although very unlikely they win. 

[texastough 1128]

33 minutes ago, DanTheHorn said:

Yup there will be a team that starts slow that has similar talent to top seeded teams and it will get hot at the right time and win the CFP. That is why the season will no longer mean what it use to mean but there are always trade offs.

I have always disagreed that an expanded playoff means the regular season means less. For several weeks there have been basically 8 teams competing for 4 spots, with the other 100+ teams out of contention. Another way to say it, lose a couple of games and your school has no chance that season. With an expanded playoff, a lot more schools will be in contention a lot later in the year for a spot. A lot of games will mean a lot more than they do now -- now those games are only to jockey for a bowl where no star players will play and nobody really cares.

[TheMailBox357 213]

 

[linux 1655]

8 minutes ago, texastough said:

I have always disagreed that an expanded playoff means the regular season means less. For several weeks there have been basically 8 teams competing for 4 spots, with the other 100+ teams out of contention. Another way to say it, lose a couple of games and your school has no chance that season. With an expanded playoff, a lot more schools will be in contention a lot later in the year for a spot. A lot of games will mean a lot more than they do now -- now those games are only to jockey for a bowl where no star players will play and nobody really cares.

Yeah during the 2000's UT's season would have been over after a loss in the RRS. People that say the regular season does not matter are crazy, it matters more, it is not until you start going to 32-64 teams or something that it starts to lose its luster.

[DanTheHorn 4893]

Screw all these guys that say the 4 best teams must get in since the best teams are always based on personal bias . For instance when it comes to Michigan, Washington, FSU, Oregon, Georgia, Alabama, Ohio State and Texas. Could any of these teams on any given Saturday realistically beat the 7 others. I would say yes and there is only one team that is arguably in doubt which is FSU but we all know how hard it is to go undefeated regardless of schedule and they had the balls to schedule LSU and that must be rewarded. So the rules have to apply, sorry Georgia you are shit out of luck you should have won your conference. Sorry Alabama you won the SEC but you should have won your head to head. If the 4 undefeated teams win then sorry Texas PK should called a better defense down the stretch against OU. This season shows why I came around on the 12 team playoff because in any one season it would be hard to find more than eight teams that deserve a shot at the national championship. So if four shitty teams get picked that are going to be destroyed more power to those teams and who gives a shit about the 13th and 14th team arguing they should be in even though one day that may be us.

Edited November 30, 2023 by DanTheHorn

[blutow 222]

2 minutes ago, linux said:

People that say the regular season does not matter are crazy, it matters more, it is not until you start going to 32-64 teams or something that it starts to lose its luster.

Yep.  Sure, there is some extra drama when a single game can knock you out of the running, but that's not a good thing for the sport.  Having more teams/fans in the running means more people care about more games (especially late in the year).  With Texas still in the mix, that had me watching all kinds of games I'd normally never tune into.  How this bowl system and then 2-4 team playoff thing has persisted so long is hard to wrap your head around.  Billions of $'s lost that can never be recouped.  

[DanTheHorn 4893]

31 minutes ago, linux said:

Yeah during the 2000's UT's season would have been over after a loss in the RRS. People that say the regular season does not matter are crazy, it matters more, it is not until you start going to 32-64 teams or something that it starts to lose its luster.

People say the regular season will not matter like it used too because in the past 2 losses would eliminate you in 99% of seasons. Regular season will always matter but it no longer carries the same weight.

[LonghornBreeder 550]

2 hours ago, immamac said:

That’s not true. The argument will shift to seeding. Seeds 8-12 don’t really matter all that much and people will find that out as time goes on. 8-12 are reserved for the long shots and teams that are surging late or had a big injury mid season that came back. 

Won't the top seeds be held for Conf Champs? If so, we might see the opposite.

A team like tOSU will be seeded below this year's FSU (or even Louisville) and fuck-stomp it's way to the final, or at least through the first round.

Next year the debates will be which non-champ has the best resume. You'll likely have some very butt-hurt B12 team at 10-2 getting passed over by several 2-to-3-loss B10 and SEC teams.

And of course next year we are guaranteed to have 2 undefeated G5 schools, so they can bitch about getting left out.

[linux 1655]

1 minute ago, DanTheHorn said:

People say the regular season will not matter like it used too because in the past 2 losses would eliminate you in 99% of seasons. Regular season will always matter but it no longer carries the same weight.

It is definitely a balancing act for sure but I literally paid more attention this year after losing to OU than I did in 00-04 after losing to them. Sure the team lucked out in 01 getting to the CCG and the 04 BCS Bowl meant something. But seriously all those aggie victories are like a blur to me, I can't tell them apart nor remember anything memorable because I was not as into the team as I am right now.

Essentially the losses are more brutal in the BCS era, but the latter half of the season actually mattered this year for us.

[Cairn Horn88 8148]

17 hours ago, Cairn Horn88 said:

[DanTheHorn 4893]

1 minute ago, linux said:

It is definitely a balancing act for sure but I literally paid more attention this year after losing to OU than I did in 00-04 after losing to them. Sure the team lucked out in 01 getting to the CCG and the 04 BCS Bowl meant something. But seriously all those aggie victories are like a blur to me, I can't tell them apart nor remember anything memorable because I was not as into the team as I am right now.

Essentially the losses are more brutal in the BCS era, but the latter half of the season actually mattered this year for us.

I guess the definition of matter is what is different between us. I define it as how many losses can you suffer and still get a championship shot. You define it as how many more fans will continue to be engaged toward the end of the season. So I guess we are both right when looking at it from our point of view.

[immamac 42492]

7 minutes ago, LonghornBreeder said:

Won't the top seeds be held for Conf Champs? If so, we might see the opposite.

A team like tOSU will be seeded below this year's FSU (or even Louisville) and fuck-stomp it's way to the final, or at least through the first round.

Next year the debates will be which non-champ has the best resume. You'll likely have some very butt-hurt B12 team at 10-2 getting passed over by several 2-to-3-loss B10 and SEC teams.

And of course next year we are guaranteed to have 2 undefeated G5 schools, so they can bitch about getting left out.

they are guaranteed spots not seeds. Which is why the discussion will switch to seeding not getting in. 

[Chuckie Finster 22583]

Kinda think FSU winning/Georgia losing is currently the scenario keeping the committee up at night.

Trying to sort out two spots between 13-0 FSU, 12-1 Georgia, 12-1 Alabama, 12-1 Texas is impossible to get right.  I suspect FSU and Bama would get it, but good luck to the guy trying to explain why head-to-head matters between Bama/Georgia but not Bama/Texas.

I think I've talked myself into believing that both FSU and Georgia losing could result in us getting the 3 seed, with Bama at 4.  It would allow them to include all conference champs while still touting the head-to-head advantage that they've promoted all season.

[chemHORN 1239]

What if Michigan, Georgia, and Washington all lost then FSU and Texas won.  Now that would be a shit show.  Everybody has 1 loss except FSU.  lol

Edited November 30, 2023 by chemHORN

[Codaxx 5588]

2 minutes ago, chemHORN said:

What if Michigan, Georgia, and Washington all lost then FSU and Texas won.  Now that would be a shit show.  Everybody has 1 loss except FSU.  lol

would guess FSU, Texas, Bama, and Georgia.. Georgia probably gets the honor of playing FSU .. 

[Js1 85056]

2 minutes ago, chemHORN said:

What if Michigan, Georgia, and Washington all lost then FSU and Texas won.  Now that would be a shit show.  Everybody has 1 loss except FSU.  lol

13-0 FSU

12-1 Texas

12-1 Bama

12-1 Oregon 

That wasn’t hard.

Michigan and Ohio State aren’t conf champs and would be left out. Iowa has 2 losses so they would be left out even though they are a P5 champ. 

[DanTheHorn 4893]

2 minutes ago, Js1 said:

13-0 FSU

12-1 Texas

12-1 Bama

12-1 Oregon 

That wasn’t hard.

Michigan and Ohio State aren’t conf champs and would be left out. Iowa has 2 losses so they would be left out even though they are a P5 champ. 

It is not easy if you are Georgia truther.

[TexArcher 37455]

8 minutes ago, chemHORN said:

What if Michigan, Georgia, and Washington all lost then FSU and Texas won.  Now that would be a shit show.  Everybody has 1 loss except FSU.  lol

1. FSU

2. Oregon

3. Texas

4. Bama

[The Dog 43771]

6 minutes ago, Js1 said:

13-0 FSU

12-1 Texas

12-1 Bama

12-1 Oregon 

That wasn’t hard.

Michigan and Ohio State aren’t conf champs and would be left out. Iowa has 2 losses so they would be left out even though they are a P5 champ. 

This but the seeds would be FSU, Oregon/Texas (doesn't matter), and Bama in order to prevent rematches in the first round.

[C-Man 26991]

19 minutes ago, Chuckie Finster said:

Kinda think FSU winning/Georgia losing is currently the scenario keeping the committee up at night.

Trying to sort out two spots between 13-0 FSU, 12-1 Georgia, 12-1 Alabama, 12-1 Texas is impossible to get right.  I suspect FSU and Bama would get it, but good luck to the guy trying to explain why head-to-head matters between Bama/Georgia but not Bama/Texas.

I think I've talked myself into believing that both FSU and Georgia losing could result in us getting the 3 seed, with Bama at 4.  It would allow them to include all conference champs while still touting the head-to-head advantage that they've promoted all season.

If that's the scenario, it should be simple. FSU gets one spot, Texas gets the other. Again, Texas beat Bama (in Tuscaloosa), who beat Georgia in the SEC Champ Game. I think the H2H will matter and, shockingly, the SEC gets (rightfully) left out for a change. Replace FSU if you want to set a precedent of leaving out an undefeated conference champ whose most important player is injured for the season.

[LonghornBreeder 550]

7 minutes ago, Js1 said:

13-0 FSU

12-1 Texas

12-1 Bama

12-1 Oregon 

That wasn’t hard.

Michigan and Ohio State aren’t conf champs and would be left out. Iowa has 2 losses so they would be left out even though they are a P5 champ. 

 

2 minutes ago, TexArcher said:

1. FSU

2. Oregon

3. Texas

4. Bama

1. FSU

2. Oregon

3. Bama

4. Texas

Since we are in fantasy land, I won't complain about the CFP committee putting Bama over us with a win over UGA. I'd be happy to stomp FSU in the first round.

[Chuckie Finster 22583]

3 minutes ago, C-Man said:

If that's the scenario, it should be simple. FSU gets one spot, Texas gets the other. Again, Texas beat Bama (in Tuscaloosa), who beat Georgia in the SEC Champ Game. I think the H2H will matter and, shockingly, the SEC gets (rightfully) left out for a change. Replace FSU if you want to set a precedent of leaving out an undefeated conference champ whose most important player is injured for the season.

Logically I agree with this, but I just refuse to believe that the committee would leave out the SEC.

[C-Man 26991]

26 minutes ago, immamac said:

they are guaranteed spots not seeds. Which is why the discussion will switch to seeding not getting in. 

I think this is the model. Personally, I'd give all the conference champs the top four or five auto-bids and then seed all the wild cards after that. Yes, you'll perhaps get a situation or two where a lesser team is seeded higher but I'm 100% in favor of rewarding conference champs first and foremost. That should be the first goal. I know we're about to enter the SEC and reap all the advantages that brings with it but I'm not in favor of a scenario where you wind up with four SEC teams seeded in the top eight or whatever you could get. For example, if we were to have a 12-team playoff this year we'd likely have both Michigan and Ohio State in the top 4. That shouldn't happen.

[Js1 85056]

7 minutes ago, The Dog said:

This but the seeds would be FSU, Oregon/Texas (doesn't matter), and Bama in order to prevent rematches in the first round.

Yeah i wasn’t seeding. Just listing the 4 that would go