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THE College Football Playoff Rankings Thread [MICH,WASH,TEX,ALA]

texifornia

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Lou_Sassle

Lou_Sassle 2865

Posted
Posted
31 minutes ago, blutow said:

Yeah, that's rational/logical.  But unfortunately they dug a deep hole by putting Oregon in front of Texas/Bama in the initial rankings (based on eye test at the time and OU loss making our loss look worse).  They would need a "narrative" to explain a change going forward.  It doesn't have to be a great explanation, but they need something to explain why it's changed.  They could explain Bama jumping over Oregon based on a CCG win against Georgia (more impressive than Oregon beating an undefeated Washington), but I don't think a Texas CCG win over a lower ranked OSU or OU could be argued as a bigger win than Oregon over undefeated Washington.   If we win out, I still like our chances, but we'll need help.  FSU loss is most likely.      

I still think that narrative could be Texas beating the shit out of a common opponent (tech) that Oregon barely beat. That would give us 3 points in our favor...

1. Better win

2. Harder sos

3. Better win over common opponent

While only 1 point in Oregon's favor

1. Better loss

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blutow

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Posted
Posted
23 minutes ago, Lou_Sassle said:

I still think that narrative could be Texas beating the shit out of a common opponent (tech) that Oregon barely beat. That would give us 3 points in our favor...

1. Better win

2. Harder sos

3. Better win over common opponent

While only 1 point in Oregon's favor

1. Better loss

That all happened in the past and should have played into the initial rankings that put Oregon in front of Texas/Alabama.  From my perception, they really screwed up the initial ranking and they won't change it going forward unless they can come up with the narrative the explain the logic.  You can't put that toothpaste back in the tube.  I don't see them saying "sorry, we didn't put much thought into the initial rankings, but we are looking at it logically now and moving Oregon behind Texas and Bama".  Assuming it plays out with Oregon beating undefeated top ~5 Washington in the CCG, the case for Oregon over Texas gets stronger, not weaker.    

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Lou_Sassle

Lou_Sassle 2865

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Posted
42 minutes ago, blutow said:

That all happened in the past and should have played into the initial rankings that put Oregon in front of Texas/Alabama.  From my perception, they really screwed up the initial ranking and they won't change it going forward unless they can come up with the narrative the explain the logic.  You can't put that toothpaste back in the tube.  I don't see them saying "sorry, we didn't put much thought into the initial rankings, but we are looking at it logically now and moving Oregon behind Texas and Bama".  Assuming it plays out with Oregon beating undefeated top ~5 Washington in the CCG, the case for Oregon over Texas gets stronger, not weaker.    

They can justify because we haven't played tech yet so there is no common opponent yet. 

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Thetexashammer

Thetexashammer 1062

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Posted

We move up one just based on the OSU/Michigan game. The loser can't play in the CCG. The committee has stated they look at wins and losses, conference championship, and head to head competition. Of course there is more, SOS and "other" but we win SOS too. 

Spoiler
  • The selection committee will select the teams using a process that distinguishes among otherwise comparable teams by considering:
    • Conference championships won,
    • Strength of schedule,
    • Head‐to‐head competition,
    • Comparative outcomes of common opponents (without incenting margin of victory), and,
    • Other relevant factors such as unavailability of key players and coaches that may have affected a team’s performance during the season or likely will affect its postseason performance.

So we start off at six. If Alabama wins the CCG, SEC gets left out, because we have head to head, that's pretty straight up. So we are four in that scenario. We have top 3(?) SOS and the best win all year against Bama.

There are a bunch of other scenarios, but we just aren't seeing many upsets this season. FSU could lose to Louisville, or Oregon to Oregon State, but it's unlikely.

Two more nice looking wins and I like our chances. Probably, we will be huge Alabama fans in a couple weeks.

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Dbeasy

Dbeasy 14970

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Posted

I’ve seen quite a few sports announcers argue that in the scenario where three of the four playoff locks are:

1. Michigan/OSU

2. Washington/Oregon

3. Alabama

That Texas could get the nod over an undefeated FSU because of strength of schedule and beating Bama.  I originally didn’t buy that, but I guess it’s possible. Especially since they lost their QB. 

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David Dennison

David Dennison 18661

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Posted
12 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

I’ve seen quite a few sports announcers argue that in the scenario where three of the four playoff locks are:

1. Michigan/OSU

2. Washington/Oregon

3. Alabama

That Texas could get the nod over an undefeated FSU because of strength of schedule and beating Bama.  I originally didn’t buy that, but I guess it’s possible. Especially since they lost their QB. 

A one loss Georgia doesn't make it?

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Not a cat

Not a cat 5622

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

For fucks sake, I was trying to be nice to you because you clearly are not understanding the situation. 

It does not fucking matter what Oregon or Washington do because they play each other and 1 of them will be eliminated from discussion and the other will most likely be ahead of us. 

All we need is Florida State to lose. Washington winning or losing is completely irrelevant. 

This.  How is this so difficult?  Absent some crazy shit the PAC, big 10 and SEC have a spot.  Our only reasonably probable path is FSU losing. 

I suppose you could hope for 1) Iowa to beat the tOSU/Michigan winner or 2) Oregon st to beat Oregon and then Washington loses in the PAC championship to Arizona, or 3) Auburn beats bama who then blows out Georgia, but I'm not gonna hold my breath on any of those scenarios.

We win 2, FSU loses one.  That's the way.

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Jewish Wang

Jewish Wang 111

Posted
Posted (edited)
36 minutes ago, Thetexashammer said:

If Alabama wins the CCG, SEC gets left out, because we have head to head, that's pretty straight up. So we are four in that scenario. We have top 3(?) SOS and the best win all year against Bama.

If Bama wins CCG, Bama is in. This is an absolute no brainer. And, UGA is probably ahead of us AND an undefeated FSU. Bama winning is the worst possible scenario. This is as obvious a scenario as there is, and you’re taking the exact opposite stance. 

Edited by Jewish Wang
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Dbeasy

Dbeasy 14970

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

A one loss Georgia doesn't make it?

I don’t agree with others at all that believe a one loss Georgia gets in over a Texas. No way. Texas beat Bama who beat Georgia. Plus one of the most important committee factors is winning your conference. No way. 

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troph

troph 24570

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Posted
2 hours ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

For fucks sake, I was trying to be nice to you because you clearly are not understanding the situation. 

It does not fucking matter what Oregon or Washington do because they play each other and 1 of them will be eliminated from discussion and the other will most likely be ahead of us. 

All we need is Florida State to lose. Washington winning or losing is completely irrelevant. 

It’s not completely irrelevant but after Oregon state lost to Washington it became a much less likely scenario.  I still think if Bama is in and Oregon is in and Texas is out there is a legit argument we got hosed. And I don’t think the committees decision will be easy. It’s a toss up really. Bud yes FSU loses and Texas wins out then Texas is in next to the winner of the pac 12 probably as the four seed playing big 10 or Georgia. PAC 12 will be 2/3 with Bama or big 10 as 2.

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troph

troph 24570

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Posted
11 minutes ago, Jewish Wang said:

If Bama wins CCG, Bama is in. This is an absolute no brainer. And, UGA is probably ahead of us AND an undefeated FSU. Bama winning is the worst possible scenario. This is as obvious a scenario as there is, and you’re taking the exact opposite stance. 

FSU loses I don’t think it matters. I also don’t think UGA can over come recent loss, to a team Texas beat on the road, and conference champion Texas vs not conference champion Georgia. To put them in ahead of Texas flies in the face of head to head, conference championships and recency. 

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mwaadeeb

mwaadeeb 1152

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, Jewish Wang said:

If Bama wins CCG, Bama is in. This is an absolute no brainer. And, UGA is probably ahead of us AND an undefeated FSU. Bama winning is the worst possible scenario. This is as obvious a scenario as there is, and you’re taking the exact opposite stance. 

I used to think this too. But if SOS and Head to Head are as important as stated above, explain this "no brainer."

We have both over Bama, no?

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Thetexashammer

Thetexashammer 1062

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Posted (edited)
25 minutes ago, Not a cat said:

An Alabama on a 10 game winning streak that just won the SEC and beat the 2 time defending champ gets in before us.  I'm not saying it's right or fair, but the circumcized one is correct.

That could happen. But only if the Committee ignores their own published criteria for selection. I appreciate how hard that would be to believe, but we beat Bama straight up, in their house. 

Edited by Thetexashammer
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idigTexas

idigTexas 2266

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24 minutes ago, Not a cat said:

This.  How is this so difficult?  Absent some crazy shit the PAC, big 10 and SEC have a spot.  Our only reasonably probable path is FSU losing. 

I suppose you could hope for 1) Iowa to beat the tOSU/Michigan winner or 2) Oregon st to beat Oregon and then Washington loses in the PAC championship to Arizona, or 3) Auburn beats bama who then blows out Georgia, but I'm not gonna hold my breath on any of those scenarios.

We win 2, FSU loses one.  That's the way.

I don't think your scenario for the PAC qualifies as "crazy shit."  I'm not saying it will happen, but Oregon St. beating Oregon isn't crazy, and honestly, Arizona beating Washington isn't either.  FSU is the more likely path, but there is plenty of meaningful football to be played that will decide this, including by us.  

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Not a cat

Not a cat 5622

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Posted
3 minutes ago, idigTexas said:

I don't think your scenario for the PAC qualifies as "crazy shit."  I'm not saying it will happen, but Oregon St. beating Oregon isn't crazy, and honestly, Arizona beating Washington isn't either.  FSU is the more likely path, but there is plenty of meaningful football to be played that will decide this, including by us.  

Ok, not crazy but certainly highly unlikely.  OSU is a 14 point dog to Oregon and Arizona certainly would be to Washington.  Once you start relying on multiple upsets, odds get pretty long.  

FSU is the opposite, we only need one loss and have 2 chances.  Not to mention no quarterback.

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Pato del Muerto

Pato del Muerto 52342

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I don’t believe a 1 loss conference champion Texas loses out to a 1 loss non champ Georgia when there’s a common opponent to further differentiate. 
 

i do think that if fsu can win these next 2, that they’ll get the nod. Didn’t know that UF is without its qb but beating them at home and then…Clemson?… with your backup qb would be enough to say they should still be there based on their season, even without Travis. 

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idigTexas

idigTexas 2266

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2 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

I don’t believe a 1 loss conference champion Texas loses out to a 1 loss non champ Georgia when there’s a common opponent to further differentiate. 
 

i do think that if fsu can win these next 2, that they’ll get the nod. Didn’t know that UF is without its qb but beating them at home and then…Clemson Louisville… with your backup qb would be enough to say they should still be there based on their season, even without Travis. 

fify

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Dbeasy

Dbeasy 14970

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12 minutes ago, Not a cat said:

Sure, but if FSU doesn't lose we're still out.  Bama just jumps into Georgia's spot as SEC champ and we're still #5.

As I said earlier, there are several sportswriters saying one loss Texas should go over undefeated FSU because of SOS, injured QB, and win over Bama. Highly unlikely but still a tiny possibility. 

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dec3169

dec3169 501

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Posted
3 hours ago, blutow said:

Yeah, that's rational/logical.  But unfortunately they dug a deep hole by putting Oregon in front of Texas/Bama in the initial rankings (based on eye test at the time and OU loss making our loss look worse).  They would need a "narrative" to explain a change going forward.  It doesn't have to be a great explanation, but they need something to explain why it's changed.  They could explain Bama jumping over Oregon based on a CCG win against Georgia (more impressive than Oregon beating an undefeated Washington), but I don't think a Texas CCG win over a lower ranked OSU or OU could be argued as a bigger win than Oregon over undefeated Washington.   If we win out, I still like our chances, but we'll need help.  FSU loss is most likely.      

Not if we win the CCG.

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Js1

Js1 85119

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Posted
1 minute ago, texastroubadour said:

Unless GA is annihilated by Bama they’re getting one of the four spots

Highly unlikely. This has happened a few times in the CFP era. There’s too many teams who would have better resumes than a 1-loss Georgia with no conf championship 

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UncleSonny

UncleSonny 6562

Posted
Posted

Absent complete chaos with upsets over the next two weeks, any team that isn’t a conference champ isn’t going to make the playoff this year. Full stop. Anybody worried about winning out but being below a team that isn’t a P5 champ is wasting their time and doesn’t understand how the committee looks at their rankings. 

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The_Great_Hornsby

The_Great_Hornsby 3329

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, texastroubadour said:

Unless GA is annihilated by Bama they’re getting one of the four spots

No they wont, you are wrong. Stop saying this because it is not true. They would 1000% lose the spot to Texas. They are not conference champ. They lost to the team Texas beat. They lost way too late in the season. They arent getting in. Period. 

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mwaadeeb

mwaadeeb 1152

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23 minutes ago, Not a cat said:

Sure, but if FSU doesn't lose we're still out.  Bama just jumps into Georgia's spot as SEC champ and we're still #5.

Again, if SOS and Head to Head are paramount, somebody explain how a CCG winning one-loss Bama jumps a CCG winning one-loss Texas who beat them at home. I think you've all got PTSD. 

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LonghornSean

LonghornSean 3942

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Make em eat Taco Bell said:

first time for five 11-0 teams?  That's hard to believe, and it's going to be 4 max after this weekend, maybe 3.

but 5 undefeateds this late?

There haven’t even been five 10-0 Power 5 teams since at least the start of the BCS. I think I heard 1973 mentioned on a podcast for the last time it’s happened, much less 11-0.

Edited by LonghornSean
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Hondo

Hondo 661

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Posted
1 hour ago, Thetexashammer said:

We move up one just based on the OSU/Michigan game. The loser can't play in the CCG. The committee has stated they look at wins and losses, conference championship, and head to head competition. Of course there is more, SOS and "other" but we win SOS too. 

  Reveal hidden contents
  • The selection committee will select the teams using a process that distinguishes among otherwise comparable teams by considering:
    • Conference championships won,
    • Strength of schedule,
    • Head‐to‐head competition,
    • Comparative outcomes of common opponents (without incenting margin of victory), and,
    • Other relevant factors such as unavailability of key players and coaches that may have affected a team’s performance during the season or likely will affect its postseason performance.

So we start off at six. If Alabama wins the CCG, SEC gets left out, because we have head to head, that's pretty straight up. So we are four in that scenario. We have top 3(?) SOS and the best win all year against Bama.

There are a bunch of other scenarios, but we just aren't seeing many upsets this season. FSU could lose to Louisville, or Oregon to Oregon State, but it's unlikely.

Two more nice looking wins and I like our chances. Probably, we will be huge Alabama fans in a couple weeks.

I don't think there's a chance in hell the SEC champion gets left out of the CFP.  Alabama or Georgia will be in, possibly both if Alabama beats UGA in a close game.

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