THE College Football Playoff Rankings Thread [MICH,WASH,TEX,ALA]

[Dnaguy 11777]

3 hours ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

Unfortunately, Florida just lost their starting QB yesterday as well. 

[mwaadeeb 1152]

1 minute ago, Hondo said:

I don't think there's a chance in hell the SEC champion gets left out of the CFP.  Alabama or Georgia will be in, possibly both if Alabama beats UGA in a close game.

This is an emotional argument. For the 3rd time, somebody explain how Bama gets in over a CCG winning one-loss Texas who beat them at home.

[blutow 222]

If Bama beat Georgia in CCG, it's possible Texas could get the nod over Bama and SEC would be out.  Bama would have better resume (and a very big recent win), but Texas would have the head to head.  It would be an interesting discussion, but I bet Bama would get in based on overall resume and SEC historical dominance in CFP.  Even with SEC bias, I can't see any way a CCG loser (even if it's UGA) gets in over any 1 loss or undefeated CCG winner.  

[fellside 1076]

4 minutes ago, mwaadeeb said:

This is an emotional argument. For the 3rd time, somebody explain how Bama gets in over a CCG winning one-loss Texas who beat them at home.

Sure. Sit down real quick and I'll explain the last 14 years of college football to you.

[hornbri 1375]

38 minutes ago, UncleSonny said:

Absent complete chaos with upsets over the next two weeks, any team that isn’t a conference champ isn’t going to make the playoff this year. Full stop. Anybody worried about winning out but being below a team that isn’t a P5 champ is wasting their time and doesn’t understand how the committee looks at their rankings. 

This

They have shown us over and over conference championships matter among teams with similar records. There is no reason to think that will not hold true unless you just want to believe they want to fuck over Texas. 

[hornbri 1375]

7 minutes ago, blutow said:

If Bama beat Georgia in CCG, it's possible Texas could get the nod over Bama and SEC would be out.  Bama would have better resume (and a very big recent win), but Texas would have the head to head.  It would be an interesting discussion, but I bet Bama would get in based on overall resume and SEC historical dominance in CFP.  Even with SEC bias, I can't see any way a CCG loser (even if it's UGA) gets in over any 1 loss or undefeated CCG winner.  

I think this is the one way an undefeated FSU gets left out. The committee can get both Texas and Bama in and blame the injury. 

[Dnaguy 11777]

7 minutes ago, mwaadeeb said:

This is an emotional argument. For the 3rd time, somebody explain how Bama gets in over a CCG winning one-loss Texas who beat them at home.

 

2 minutes ago, fellside said:

Sure. Sit down real quick and I'll explain the last 14 years of college football to you.

“In the begging [of the college football playoffs]”

 

[Tex Long 4348]

It looks as though there very well may be some seriously convoluted decisions for the Committee to make. I looked at the Committee members, all thirteen of them 0 I have no clue who they are... not a one of them rings a bell.

What do we know about them? Any potential biases?

[The_Great_Hornsby 3329]

16 minutes ago, blutow said:

If Bama beat Georgia in CCG, it's possible Texas could get the nod over Bama and SEC would be out.  Bama would have better resume (and a very big recent win), but Texas would have the head to head.  It would be an interesting discussion, but I bet Bama would get in based on overall resume and SEC historical dominance in CFP.  Even with SEC bias, I can't see any way a CCG loser (even if it's UGA) gets in over any 1 loss or undefeated CCG winner.  

They would most likely drop Oregon out in this scenario. If Washington beats Oregon, and Florida State remains unbeaten, then I dont know who they would pick between Texas and Bama. It should be Texas but I am not convinced it would be. However, I do not think this situation is likely to occur because Oregon most likely will beat Washington. 

[The_Great_Hornsby 3329]

11 minutes ago, hornbri said:

I think this is the one way an undefeated FSU gets left out. The committee can get both Texas and Bama in and blame the injury. 

I would love to see an undefeated FSU left out and it could be possible. However, I think louisville beats them outright. 

[troph 24570]

15 minutes ago, hornbri said:

This

They have shown us over and over conference championships matter among teams with similar records. There is no reason to think that will not hold true unless you just want to believe they want to fuck over Texas. 

Bama beats UGA - Bama in // Texas out.

Assume the others are Washington, FSU, and Big 10 champs all undefeated.

there's an argument they want to fuck over Texas right there.

and I'd call that a coin toss decision.

 

Edited November 19, 2023 by troph

[hornbri 1375]

If Texas and Bama win out the committee has new information too i suppose. 

Alabama won the SEC and Texas beat the SEC champ. The SEC basis of the committee could allow them to make any changes they want after that. 

[Hondo 661]

Valence Effect on full display in this thread. 

I'm a UT alumnus.  Born and raised Texan.  Been rooting for UT since I was knee high to a grasshopper. 

Of course I want us to get in the CFP.  Of course I think if we win out, we have a strong case to be in it.

But ...

Our big win against Alabama was a long time ago.  Both teams look far different today.  Alabama looks much better and I'd argue we look worse.

We haven't been dominant in many games.  We've scratched out wins vs. burying teams...unranked teams.

We have a lot of injuries to key players (Brooks, Ewers, Worthy, Sanders, etc.).  If FSU is going to suffer in the rankings due to not having Travis, then the same could be applied to us.

I could easily see some "eye test" argument made in selecting another 1-loss conference champion over Texas (Oregon or Alabama; probably not FSU if they lose to UF and beat Louisville).

Oregon is already ranked ahead of us, with the same record and with the same information the committee will have should Oregon and Texas both win out (both teams have already had their losses and their wins...except Oregon will likely have a big win over #4 Washington to bolster their argument). 

Alabama will have lost to us - "but that was early in the season and they still hadn't figured out what to do with Milroe.  Since then, Texas has gotten worse and Alabama has only gotten better.  Plus, they just knocked off the 2x defending champions Georgia." 

Ya'll like to talk about recency...well, Alabama will have just knocked off Georgia.  And, for that matter, Georgia will have FINALLY LOST A GAME "to a really, really good Alabama squad."

Texas has been in the wilderness for awhile and even while we sucked, we still acted like we owned college football.  We're not exactly everybody's favorite right now and we're not going to get favors thrown our way just because "we're Texas."  String together a few 10+ win seasons, legitimately be "we're baaaaack", and that'll likely change.  But that hasn't happened yet.

All that said, FSU losing is our best chance.  Oregon/Washington will take care of one of those two and Ohio State/Michigan will take care of one of those.  That's 2 spots.  FSU loss will bump us up the 3rd spot to #4.  Hate that Travis got hurt and definitely wouldn't wish for it to happen like this, but it did, so let's hope it pays off.

[troph 24570]

3 minutes ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

I would love to see an undefeated FSU left out and it could be possible. However, I think louisville beats them outright. 

I can't see FSU being left out if their back up wins the next two games, they are undefeated and ACC champs.  I just don't see it.

[Hank_Hill 18499]

FSU dropped to 5th in AP

[Pancho 44492]

27 minutes ago, mwaadeeb said:

This is an emotional argument. For the 3rd time, somebody explain how Bama gets in over a CCG winning one-loss Texas who beat them at home.

It’s also emotional to use words like “guaranteed” (not necessarily you) when talking about the CFP and Texas when none of us are in the committee. The committee can twist it however they want to get Alabama in if that’s what they want.

[troph 24570]

3 minutes ago, hornbri said:

If Texas and Bama win out the committee has new information too i suppose. 

Alabama won the SEC and Texas beat the SEC champ. The SEC basis of the committee could allow them to make any changes they want after that. 

recency versus head to head - call it a wash, then SOS. I suspect Bama has a stronger SOS. It's not hard to push Bama ahead of Texas in that example. I think it's bullshit, but the arguments are there.

[tx 3 putt 76417]

28 minutes ago, blutow said:

If Bama beat Georgia in CCG, it's possible Texas could get the nod over Bama and SEC would be out.  Bama would have better resume (and a very big recent win), but Texas would have the head to head.  It would be an interesting discussion, but I bet Bama would get in based on overall resume and SEC historical dominance in CFP.  Even with SEC bias, I can't see any way a CCG loser (even if it's UGA) gets in over any 1 loss or undefeated CCG winner.  

I don’t think the sec gets left out in any scenario 

[billfromlaketravis 11363]

I think the only way we get in is if Florida State loses. The rest will take care of itself. It’ll have to be the Florida game. They’ll destroy paper tiger Louisville. 
 

Florida gets them at home, but it’ll be backup QB on backup QB. Napier is coaching for his job and FSU is playing for a CFP birth. Both teams will be plenty motivated. 
 

I just don’t see it happening. FSU limps in while we get left out. It sucks, but there are consequences when we lose to OU. 

[hornbri 1375]

1 minute ago, tx 3 putt said:

I don’t think the sec gets left out in any scenario 

Auburn beats Bama, bama beats Georgia.  

[troph 24570]

Just now, billfromlaketravis said:

I think the only way we get in is if Florida State loses. The rest will take care of itself. It’ll have to be the Florida game. They’ll destroy paper tiger Louisville. 
 

Florida gets them at home, but it’ll be backup QB on backup QB. Napier is coaching for his job and FSU is playing for a CFP birth. Both teams will be plenty motivated. 
 

I just don’t see it happening. FSU limps in while we get left out. It sucks, but there are consequences when we lose to OU. 

well and to be fair, it's our first year in the hunt. not sure who comes back next year but it's time to make the playoffs every year now with the expansion.

[Hondo 661]

2 minutes ago, Pancho said:

It’s also emotional to use words like “guaranteed” (not necessarily you) when talking about the CFP and Texas when none of us are in the committee. The committee can twist it however they want to get Alabama in if that’s what they want.

Yep, the irony was not lost on that one.  Valence Effect (overestimation of positive outcomes and underestimation of negative ones), one could argue, is tied to emotion.

[troph 24570]

Just now, hornbri said:

Auburn beats Bama, bama beats Georgia.  

he shoulda said in any "realistic" scenario. Auburn is baaaaaad.

[Dbeasy 14970]

Just now, billfromlaketravis said:

I think the only way we get in is if Florida State loses. The rest will take care of itself. It’ll have to be the Florida game. They’ll destroy paper tiger Louisville. 
 

Florida gets them at home, but it’ll be backup QB on backup QB. Napier is coaching for his job and FSU is playing for a CFP birth. Both teams will be plenty motivated. 
 

I just don’t see it happening. FSU limps in while we get left out. It sucks, but there are consequences when we lose to OU. 

Probably, but it will be interesting if Bama beats Georgia and FSU is undefeated because at that point the committee might look at Texas beating Bama, FSU’s weak schedule, and injured QB. That might be enough for a Texas to slip past an undefeated FSU. Unlikely but possible. 

[hornbri 1375]

1 minute ago, troph said:

he shoulda said in any "realistic" scenario. Auburn is baaaaaad.

I agree - just pointing out anything can still happen. 

[WBT 20425]

4 hours ago, blutow said:

Yeah, that's rational/logical.  But unfortunately they dug a deep hole by putting Oregon in front of Texas/Bama in the initial rankings (based on eye test at the time and OU loss making our loss look worse).  They would need a "narrative" to explain a change going forward.  It doesn't have to be a great explanation, but they need something to explain why it's changed.  They could explain Bama jumping over Oregon based on a CCG win against Georgia (more impressive than Oregon beating an undefeated Washington), but I don't think a Texas CCG win over a lower ranked OSU or OU could be argued as a bigger win than Oregon over undefeated Washington.   If we win out, I still like our chances, but we'll need help.  FSU loss is most likely.      

They don't need shit.  Nothing matters until the final ranking.  Precedent has been set going back to tcu being dropped for fuckall reason the first year of this bullshit.

[The_Great_Hornsby 3329]

Playoff scenarios that would almost certainly put Texas in the playoff:

1) Florida State loses to either Florida/Louisville (ACC misses playoff) 

2) Arizona beats Washington and Oregon loses to OSU next week (PAC misses playoff) 

Scenarios where the committee will determine our fate:

3) Bama beats Georgia, Texas gets the nod over a 1 loss Pac 12 Champ Oregon by virtue of a H2H road win against the SEC champ (PAC misses playoff)

4) Bama beats Georgia, Texas gets the nod over Bama by virtue of a H2H road win (assuming Washington wins out, SEC misses the playoff)

SEC misses playoff:

5) Georgia loses to Bama and Bama loses to Auburn prior to that result (SEC misses playoff)

Big 10 misses playoffs scenario:

6) Ohio St/Mich winner loses the Big 10 champ game to Iowa (lol) (Big 10 misses playoff)

 

There are still a lot of paths but none as likely and stress free as path #1. I do not want to rely on the committee to pick us in situation #3 or #4. Although I think situation #3 is most likely to break our way. 

[Thetexashammer 1062]

 

[Patrick Bateman 3903]

55 minutes ago, LonghornSean said:

If UGA were to get in as a 12-1 non-SEC champ over Texas, it would be purely based on what happened in the two previous seasons.

That would be absolute bullshit and I don’t believe the committee would do it. Not a scenario I’m worried about.

 

48 minutes ago, Pancho said:

If Georgia gets in despite losing in the CCG it’s because the committee still thinks they are one of the top 4 teams based on “eye test.” That’s really it.

Especially because George's SOS would be dog shit and way behind Texas'.

[WBT 20425]

5 hours ago, Hondo said:

We beat Alabama, but do you think if Texas and Alabama are both 1-loss conference champs, Alabama would be the one left out because we beat them head-to-head? 

Absolutely 

[Patrick Bateman 3903]

12 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

Probably, but it will be interesting if Bama beats Georgia and FSU is undefeated because at that point the committee might look at Texas beating Bama, FSU’s weak schedule, and injured QB. That might be enough for a Texas to slip past an undefeated FSU. Unlikely but possible. 

Extremely doubtful.  Even with FSU's poor SoS.  FSU goes undefeated, even in a weaker conference, then they're in.

[The_Great_Hornsby 3329]

4 minutes ago, Thetexashammer said:

 

And for the reasons he outlined above, Oregon will be left out if there are three 1 loss teams in Bama, Texas, and Oregon. 

[BigOrange1 6422]

11 minutes ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

Playoff scenarios that would almost certainly put Texas in the playoff:

1) Florida State loses to either Florida/Louisville (ACC misses playoff) 

2) Arizona beats Washington and Oregon loses to OSU next week (PAC misses playoff) 

unfortunately washington plays washington state, not arizona, next week.

[CooterBrown 17914]

The one criteria in our favor is that we would have higher TV ratings than any other team in contention for the playoffs. That will outweigh any other factor.

[UncleSonny 6562]

9 minutes ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

And for the reasons he outlined above, Oregon will be left out if there are three 1 loss teams in Bama, Texas, and Oregon. 

Yeah, I think this is right. Bama beating Georgia can really only be good for us. The committee will have a really hard time reconciling Texas or Alabama, and you solve that problem by putting them both in over a one loss Pac12 champ. 

Edited November 19, 2023 by UncleSonny

[immamac 42527]

1 minute ago, CooterBrown said:

The one criteria in our favor is that we would have higher TV ratings than any other team in contention for the playoffs. That will outweigh any other factor.

This is correct. 

[The_Great_Hornsby 3329]

4 minutes ago, BigOrange1 said:

unfortunately washington plays washington state, not arizona, next week.

They would play Zona in the championship game because Oregon wouldnt make it if they lost to OSU. Try and keep up. 

[mwaadeeb 1152]

51 minutes ago, fellside said:

Sure. Sit down real quick and I'll explain the last 14 years of college football to you.

Ha, it's possible because it's so fucked up, but I've yet to heard a persuasive argument. 

[billfromlaketravis 11363]

Arizona is the hottest team in the P12 and… checks notes… they don’t play anybody we need to lose. 

[The_Great_Hornsby 3329]

2 minutes ago, billfromlaketravis said:

Arizona is the hottest team in the P12 and… checks notes… they don’t play anybody we need to lose. 

If Oregon loses to OSU next week, then Arizona plays... checks notes... Washington in the PAC championship game. 

Edited November 19, 2023 by The_Great_Hornsby

[billfromlaketravis 11363]

1 minute ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

If Oregon loses to OSU next week, then Arizona plays... checks notes... Washington in the PAC championship game. 

Oregon won’t lose to Oregon State is the problem. 

[The_Great_Hornsby 3329]

1 minute ago, billfromlaketravis said:

Oregon won’t lose to Oregon State is the problem. 

Thanks, I wont have to watch that game now. In fact, we should just call Oregon State and tell them that Bill from Lake Travis said they are definitely gonna lose so there is no point in even showing up for the game. 

[fellside 1076]

10 minutes ago, mwaadeeb said:

Ha, it's possible because it's so fucked up, but I've yet to heard a persuasive argument. 

The argument would be that the SEC has never and will never be left out of the playoffs. You're more likely to get 2 than zero.

[mwaadeeb 1152]

44 minutes ago, Pancho said:

It’s also emotional to use words like “guaranteed” (not necessarily you) when talking about the CFP and Texas when none of us are in the committee. The committee can twist it however they want to get Alabama in if that’s what they want.

I'm just looking for arguments that counter our head to head on their home turf. Seems pretty hard to overcome when the rubber hits the road. Even if we struggle through our next three and they kick Georgia's ass, it still seems like a tough sell, but who knows where the narrative momentum will go. SEC bias could take over, for sure.

Edited November 19, 2023 by mwaadeeb

[billfromlaketravis 11363]

16 minutes ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

Thanks, I wont have to watch that game now. In fact, we should just call Oregon State and tell them that Bill from Lake Travis said they are definitely gonna lose so there is no point in even showing up for the game. 

Dude, calm down. Oregon is playing really well right now. Anything can happen, but I don’t have confidence in Oregon State shutting Nix down. 

[Pancho 44492]

25 minutes ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

Thanks, I wont have to watch that game now. In fact, we should just call Oregon State and tell them that Bill from Lake Travis said they are definitely gonna lose so there is no point in even showing up for the game. 

You’re really taking the immaturity in this thread to a new level. Calm the fuck down. It is more likely than not Oregon beats the shit out of Oregon State. There is nothing there to get angry over. 

[Neonmoon 38127]

Point of parliamentary procedure 

Why is Oregon ranked ahead of us? They put up numbers against shitty teams, which we don’t, I get it. But they barely beat Tech. Their big win is against Utah? USC? Both are average. They have a quality loss. That’s their big selling point?

[fellside 1076]

Just now, Neonmoon said:

Point of parliamentary procedure 

Why is Oregon ranked ahead of us? They put up numbers against shitty teams, which we don’t, I get it. But they barely beat Tech. Their big win is against Utah? USC? Both are average. They have a quality loss. That’s their big selling point?

Not only that, every sports media member likes Oregon more than Washington.

People get a hard on for blowout wins.

[Js1 85119]

2 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

Point of parliamentary procedure 

Why is Oregon ranked ahead of us? They put up numbers against shitty teams, which we don’t, I get it. But they barely beat Tech. Their big win is against Utah? USC? Both are average. They have a quality loss. That’s their big selling point?

Bc they have the likely Heisman winner and they score a ton. 

[Coelenterate Fuccboi 13010]

56 minutes ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

Playoff scenarios that would almost certainly put Texas in the playoff:

1) Florida State loses to either Florida/Louisville (ACC misses playoff) 

2) Arizona beats Washington and Oregon loses to OSU next week (PAC misses playoff) 

Scenarios where the committee will determine our fate:

3) Bama beats Georgia, Texas gets the nod over a 1 loss Pac 12 Champ Oregon by virtue of a H2H road win against the SEC champ (PAC misses playoff)

4) Bama beats Georgia, Texas gets the nod over Bama by virtue of a H2H road win (assuming Washington wins out, SEC misses the playoff)

SEC misses playoff:

5) Georgia loses to Bama and Bama loses to Auburn prior to that result (SEC misses playoff)

Big 10 misses playoffs scenario:

6) Ohio St/Mich winner loses the Big 10 champ game to Iowa (lol) (Big 10 misses playoff)

 

There are still a lot of paths but none as likely and stress free as path #1. I do not want to rely on the committee to pick us in situation #3 or #4. Although I think situation #3 is most likely to break our way. 

 

46 minutes ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

And for the reasons he outlined above, Oregon will be left out if there are three 1 loss teams in Bama, Texas, and Oregon. 

You’ve really convinced yourself of all this… 

Why is Oregon currently ahead in the rankings, based on your logic?