Hey Sark, analytics need context

[Wulaw Horn 19069]

10 hours ago, WBT said:

I should have included this in my earlier post, but there is also the good chance that any trends we try to tease out from our games are really just small sample size noise and we'd be better off just going by the book.

Look, you know from the Astros thread I am a go by the book guy. The issue here is it’s 8 or 14 opportunities over the course of a season and the goal isn’t to maximize all points scored on the year, but rather to win an individual game, and some times almost certain some points beats opportunity for zero points or opportunity for additional points. I get the argument. I also like aggressiveness. 

Edited November 6, 2023 by Wulaw Horn

[UTGrad98 2271]

I'm more concerned with loss of momentum than 3 points. College teams have a tough time getting momentum back once they lose it. Losing/gaining momentum is much more pronounced in college than the pros. 

[gmr548 16576]

Can’t have it both ways. I’m sure you were jumping for joy when CJ Baxter scored a TD on 4th and 2 from our own side of the field.  
Texas is converting 63% of their 4th downs. That is pretty solid. Of course we only remember the ones they don’t get. We don’t remember the ones they do that lead to extra points.

Sure you can. They aren’t the same situation and therefore the decision making process changes. No two 4th downs are.

I liked 4th and 1 call to go for it. That down and distance and field position (4th and 1 between the 40s) really makes it the only sensible option a field goal isn’t doable and punting from there is dumb. I was annoyed we got under center to run the ball which has generally been a disaster (and almost was - a KSU defender was in place to make the stop, Baxter and the turf just made a play). But of course, that one worked out and then some. Woo hoo.

On the second one I think you take the points to make KSU’s hole that much bigger because the FG is a gimmie. I actually liked the play call though. Sanders was wide open for an easy conversion, just botched the snap. Shit happens. I can see why they would feel good about that so I don’t think it’s as egregious as the Houston game where they ran that stupid ass fake FG. Context matters.

[Lou Loomis 746]

Going up 20 - 0 then kicking through the end zone with the wind at our backs and  with the way the defense was playing at the just seemed like a no brainer. Shit unraveled from that moment when our foot was pretty firmly on their neck.

[Wulaw Horn 19069]

15 minutes ago, Lou Loomis said:

Going up 20 - 0 then kicking through the end zone with the wind at our backs and  with the way the defense was playing at the just seemed like a no brainer. Shit unraveled from that moment when our foot was pretty firmly on their neck.

I mean we got the ball right back on our 40 or 50 or something and had a wide open worthy for 7 that MM missed and an egregious no call on PI. 
mid he hits that candy it’s 24-0 and nobody is talking about go v not on the play before. 

[Fud 9552]

On 11/4/2023 at 12:29 PM, Vermin said:

Analytics will tell you when to go on it on 4th down to maximize expected points. Early in a close game, by all means follow it faithfully.

However, late in a game when a FG pushes it a 3 possession game (like last game), it's worth lower expected points for less variance to take a FG.

Today, when a FG pushes you to a 20-0 lead, that's huge. Sure, a 17 point lead to a 20 point lead is still 3 possessions, but we're probably not going to score 0 the rest of the way. As the lead increases, you should be getting more conservative and taking more guaranteed points for less variance.

Sark never seems to be satisfied with "we're doing pretty good in a losable game, let's not fuck that up"