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LSU @ Alabama- CBS

Hugo Stiglitz

By Hugo Stiglitz
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ousux

ousux 5639

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For now, I’m just going to enjoy how good it feels to even be talking about the possibility of being in the CFP, in November.
TSRH. Before the season started it was just a pipe dream, now we can force the committee to pass us over...or put us in. After the past decade it feels good...but still have some games left to play.
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Coelenterate Fuccboi

Coelenterate Fuccboi 13435

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The committee will look at “what have you done lately”. If Texas is banged up at key positions and still scraping by against inferior teams, I wouldn’t bet on Texas getting in.

1 minute ago, TXpride said:

If it comes down to us and Bama, there is a 0% chance of the committee putting them in over us with our head-to-head win over them at their place.

Hahahaha. You don’t know how this works.

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Hmbre97

Hmbre97 6337

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1 minute ago, TXpride said:

If it comes down to us and Bama, there is a 0% chance of the committee putting them in over us with our head-to-head win over them at their place.

It's not Bama or the SEC we're worried about. They're getting in either way.

They would put 1 loss Bama (who beat an undefeated GA in this scenario) in over us. A win in week 2 doesn't mean shit against beating Georgia the week prior to the rankings.

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El Squared

El Squared 1852

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Just now, ousux said:
7 minutes ago, Coelenterate Fuccboi said:
For now, I’m just going to enjoy how good it feels to even be talking about the possibility of being in the CFP, in November.

TSRH. Before the season started it was just a pipe dream, now we can force the committee to pass us over...or put us in. After the past decade it feels good...but still have some games left to play.

This is the real problem: committees deciding who gets into playoffs is like judging in diving , figure skating, gymnastics, and synchronized swimming. Complete horseshit and political/biased. Expanded playoff numbers are the only solution.

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hookem48

hookem48 4856

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1 minute ago, TXpride said:

If it comes down to us and Bama, there is a 0% chance of the committee putting them in over us with our head-to-head win over them at their place.

"well, the committee just felt like Bama's win over the 2 time defending champion yesterday means more than a game 3 months ago".  committee chairman or whoever

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Pancho

Pancho 46312

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2 minutes ago, TXpride said:

If it comes down to us and Bama, there is a 0% chance of the committee putting them in over us with our head-to-head win over them at their place.

You are not on the committee. You have no idea what they would do. 

That committee uses the most subjective reasoning to justify their selections. Alabama beating Georgia on Championship weekend would be way more recent than our September win in Tuscaloosa. 

So no, there’s no 0% in that scenario, especially considering Alabama will have just beaten the likely #1 ranked CFP team in Georgia. That would be fresh in the committee’s mind. You cannot sit there are make guarantees when there’s nothing in writing guaranteeing anything. 

So yes, there is a situation in which a 1-loss Texas gets left out. It’s possible—the problem is the probability is unknown because the season hasn’t played itself out. 

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The_Great_Hornsby

The_Great_Hornsby 3598

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Just now, hookem48 said:

"well, the committee just felt like Bama's win over the 2 time defending champion yesterday means more than a game 3 months ago".  committee chairman or whoever

They may put in a 1 loss Texas over an undefeated Florida State in that scenario. I think its highly unlikely we end up with 3 undefeateds and Texas and Bama as 1 loss teams. Teams will start falling soon. And hell, it could be us. Georgia is going down to Ole Miss next week imo.  

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Hmbre97

Hmbre97 6337

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Just now, hookem48 said:

"well, the committee just felt like Bama's win over the 2 time defending champion yesterday means more than a game 3 months ago".  committee chairman or whoever

Exactly. That why we need to just pencil in SEC and probably the BIG. We need to root for losses for FSU and Washington/Oregon. Idiots over in the Washington/USC thread clowning on SC when we really needed them to win tonight. 

Just now, The_Great_Hornsby said:

They may put in a 1 loss Texas over an undefeated Florida State in that scenario. I think its highly unlikely we end up with 3 undefeateds and Texas and Bama as 1 loss teams. Teams will start falling soon. And hell, it could be us. Georgia is going down to Ole Miss next week imo.  

ok, you're smoking crack if you think they're putting in a 1 loss Texas over an undefeated FSU.

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hookem48

hookem48 4856

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3 minutes ago, Hmbre97 said:

It's not Bama or the SEC we're worried about. They're getting in either way.

They would put 1 loss Bama (who beat an undefeated GA in this scenario) in over us. A win in week 2 doesn't mean shit against beating Georgia the week prior to the rankings.

Especially when we're playing a 2-3 loss team in the Big 12 Title game, if we even get there with 1 loss

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Coelenterate Fuccboi

Coelenterate Fuccboi 13435

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1 minute ago, hookem48 said:

"well, the committee just felt like Bama's win over the 2 time defending champion yesterday means more than a game 3 months ago".  committee chairman or whoever

Without having watched Bama recently, I’m just going to assume they’ve looked better than Texas, because we have not looked good.

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The_Great_Hornsby

The_Great_Hornsby 3598

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Just now, Hmbre97 said:

Exactly. That why we need to just pencil in SEC and probably the BIG. We need to root for losses for FSU and Washington/Oregon. Idiots over in the Washington/USC thread clowning on SC when we really needed them to win tonight. 

ok, you're smoking crack if you think they're putting in a 1 loss Texas over an undefeated FSU.

Probably am. I just think Florida State is a fraud and they are playing in the worst conference of the 5. 

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Hmbre97

Hmbre97 6337

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Just now, Coelenterate Fuccboi said:

Without having watched Bama recently, I’m just going to assume they’ve looked better than Texas, because we have not looked good.

I'd still like our chances with the same Ewers that showed up for the first game. If for some reason we're still trotting out Murphy, it would be....not pretty.

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The_Great_Hornsby

The_Great_Hornsby 3598

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Just now, Coelenterate Fuccboi said:

Without having watched Bama recently, I’m just going to assume they’ve looked better than Texas, because we have not looked good.

They looked bad against the Ags. But did look good against Tenn in the 2nd half and tonight against LSU. We need Ewers back so we can start blowing teams the fuck out instead of looking like shit scraping by with MM. 

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troph

troph 25227

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Posted (edited)

The probability Texas gets left out is increasing due to the big 12 shitting the bed week in and week out. Always root for OU to lose, always but this is what happens when you aren’t undefeated. Our one loss looks like crap. And our best win is getting stale.

a one loss SEC champ Bama - better resume. 

a one loss UGA - better resume.

a one loss Oregon - better resume.

I *think* a one loss Big 10 would be behind a 1 loss Texas. 

assume for the moment: Washington undefeated / Big 10 champ undefeated / FSU undefeated 

Texas isn’t even the first one left out, could be ranked 7th or 8th.

 

 

Edited by troph
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troph

troph 25227

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6 minutes ago, Hmbre97 said:

Exactly. That why we need to just pencil in SEC and probably the BIG. We need to root for losses for FSU and Washington/Oregon. Idiots over in the Washington/USC thread clowning on SC when we really needed them to win tonight. 

ok, you're smoking crack if you think they're putting in a 1 loss Texas over an undefeated FSU.

I was on that thread, EVERYONE except Nicole and sbbruin were on the Trojan bandwagon. Hell I typed “Fight on” like 4 times. 

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The_Great_Hornsby

The_Great_Hornsby 3598

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1 minute ago, troph said:

The probability Texas gets left out is increasing due to the big 12 shitting the bed week in and week out. Always root for OU to lose, always but this is what happens when you aren’t undefeated. Our one loss looks like crap. And our best win is getting stale.

a one loss SEC champ Bama - better resume. 

a one loss UGA - better resume.

a one loss Oregon - better resume.

I *think* a one loss Big 10 would be behind a 1 loss Texas. 

assume for the moment: Washington undefeated / Big 10 champ undefeated / FSU undefeated 

Texas isn’t even the first one left out, could be 7th or 8th.

 

 

Being the CCG winner is going to be the differentiator. 1 loss Georgia that loses in the CCG is not going to the playoff. A 1 loss Georgia that wins the SEC goes to the playoffs. One loss Ohio State/Michigan is completely toast because they cant win the CCG. 

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troph

troph 25227

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6 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

You'll have to explain these two. Those are arguable at best. 

UGA wins against Tenn, ole miss, Missouri, loss only to Bama. 

Bama wins against Georgia,  Tenn, Ole Miss, Lsu, only loss to Texas 

Texas wins Bama, Kansas, Kansas state, oSu, only loss OU.

it will be a beauty contest. Early win vs late win, defending champ, SEC, blah blah. 

5 minutes ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

Being the CCG winner is going to be the differentiator. 1 loss Georgia that loses in the CCG is not going to the playoff. A 1 loss Georgia that wins the SEC goes to the playoffs. One loss Ohio State/Michigan is completely toast because they cant win the CCG. 

In the scenario I laid out UGA stays home Bama is in. Texas is out.

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Huckleberry

Huckleberry 34657

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2 minutes ago, troph said:

UGA wins against Tenn, ole miss, Missouri, loss only to Bama. 

Bama wins against Georgia,  Tenn, Ole Miss, Lsu, only loss to Texas 

Texas wins Bama, Kansas, Kansas state, oSu, only loss OU.

it will be a beauty contest. Early win vs late win, defending champ, SEC, blah blah. 

Georgia can't have all those wins in your scenario where they have a loss. If they do then they lost in their CCG and they're not a conference champion. Which with their terrible early schedule puts them clearly behind Texas in this hypothetical. 

Alabama lost to Texas at home. That solves that one pretty easily.

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hookem48

hookem48 4856

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1 minute ago, Huckleberry said:

Georgia can't have all those wins in your scenario where they have a loss. If they do then they lost in their CCG and they're not a conference champion. Which with their terrible early schedule puts them clearly behind Texas in this hypothetical. 

Alabama lost to Texas at home. That solves that one pretty easily.

too bad they didn't pick the playoff teams after the 2nd week

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troph

troph 25227

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4 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

Georgia can't have all those wins in your scenario where they have a loss. If they do then they lost in their CCG and they're not a conference champion. Which with their terrible early schedule puts them clearly behind Texas in this hypothetical. 

Alabama lost to Texas at home. That solves that one pretty easily.

I said they were out. 

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troph

troph 25227

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Texas needs the best win and best loss given the conference shit show. We won’t have the best loss and we aren’t winning convincingly. Maybe if Ewers comes back and we roll, but we weren’t with him either. Hell Oregon has already supplanted Texas as a better one loss team, Bama may this week too.

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troph

troph 25227

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1 minute ago, LurkingHorn said:

Just win the conference at this point. We can worry about the rest of this shit later on.  I’ll be glad to be pissed off about being left out of the playoff if we somehow won the rest of the games from here on out. 12-1 would be an amazing damn season. 

This is where I am now. It’s not over for the CFP but it’s not trending well. So take care of business and win the damn conference.

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troph

troph 25227

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26 minutes ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

They may put in a 1 loss Texas over an undefeated Florida State in that scenario. I think its highly unlikely we end up with 3 undefeateds and Texas and Bama as 1 loss teams. Teams will start falling soon. And hell, it could be us. Georgia is going down to Ole Miss next week imo.  

There is no way a one loss Texas leaps an undefeated FSU. That’s absolutely 0%

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bolverk

bolverk 30325

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5 minutes ago, troph said:

Texas needs the best win and best loss given the conference shit show. We won’t have the best loss and we aren’t winning convincingly. Maybe if Ewers comes back and we roll, but we weren’t with him either. Hell Oregon has already supplanted Texas as a better one loss team, Bama may this week too.

For what it's worth, I agree about the beauty contest factor. If we're behind both Oregon and Bama in the next round of whatever subjective factors the committee chooses next week, we ain't making it -- even if Texas wins out (assuming all the others end the season with a loss or less).

Edit: The only chance would be a one-loss FSU.

Edited by bolverk
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TXpride

TXpride 606

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32 minutes ago, troph said:

OU / Fla national title game says hi.

There was a 3-way tie. OU got in because of the bs B12 tiebreaker rules.

 

30 minutes ago, Pancho said:

You are not on the committee. You have no idea what they would do. 

That committee uses the most subjective reasoning to justify their selections. Alabama beating Georgia on Championship weekend would be way more recent than our September win in Tuscaloosa. 

So no, there’s no 0% in that scenario, especially considering Alabama will have just beaten the likely #1 ranked CFP team in Georgia. That would be fresh in the committee’s mind. You cannot sit there are make guarantees when there’s nothing in writing guaranteeing anything. 

So yes, there is a situation in which a 1-loss Texas gets left out. It’s possible—the problem is the probability is unknown because the season hasn’t played itself out. 

Why even play the fucking game then? Sure technically I can't guarantee I'm going to wake up tomorrow morning, but I feel very strongly (like 99.9%) that if it comes down to us and Bama, the fact that we actually beat them in a head-to-head game in their stadium will matter.

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Vertigo

Vertigo 20497

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13 minutes ago, troph said:

The probability Texas gets left out is increasing due to the big 12 shitting the bed week in and week out. Always root for OU to lose, always but this is what happens when you aren’t undefeated. Our one loss looks like crap. And our best win is getting stale.

a one loss SEC champ Bama - better resume. 

a one loss UGA - better resume.

a one loss Oregon - better resume.

I *think* a one loss Big 10 would be behind a 1 loss Texas. 

assume for the moment: Washington undefeated / Big 10 champ undefeated / FSU undefeated 

Texas isn’t even the first one left out, could be ranked 7th or 8th.

 

 

I believe my picks for CFP at the beginning of the season were: Georgia, Washington, Michigan, FSU, which still looks on track with TX finishing 5th and just out of the CFP. But if some of those teams lose late, we have more than just one good win. Kansas is a quality win, Kansas State is a quality win - both will end top 25. If we do make it through the last three games, we will have another ranked opportunity in the CCG. That should be enough considering we also have a top 5 road win and our loss was a last second loss in a rivalry game against another top 15 team.

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Laga4

Laga4 1270

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1 minute ago, LurkingHorn said:

Just win the conference at this point. We can worry about the rest of this shit later on.  I’ll be glad to be pissed off about being left out of the playoff if we somehow won the rest of the games from here on out. 12-1 would be an amazing damn season. 

I remember Tom Landry was asked about the Cowboys chances one year when there were about 3 or 4 combinations of how the Cowboys could get in the playoffs.  

His answer was classic Landry,  "I'm sure someone will tell us if we're in".  

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F250

F250 29201

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1 minute ago, troph said:

There is no way a one loss Texas leaps an undefeated FSU. That’s absolutely 0%

We're not passing up any undefeated conference champion. The Big 10 and SEC are already in. The ACC is trash and nobody left to stop FSU.

Our best option is Washington to drop a game.

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bolverk

bolverk 30325

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Just now, Vertigo said:

I believe my picks for CFP at the beginning of the season were: Georgia, Washington, Michigan, FSU, which still looks on track with TX finishing 5th and just out of the CFP. But if some of those teams lose late, we have more than just one good win. Kansas is a quality win, Kansas State is a quality win - both will end top 25. If we do make it through the last three games, we will have another ranked opportunity in the CCG. That should be enough considering we also have a top 5 road win and our loss was a last second loss in a rivalry game against another top 15 team.

Best chance for us is an FSU loss. They have Miami at home, North Alabama(?) at home, and Florida on the road. Go Gata.

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The_Great_Hornsby

The_Great_Hornsby 3598

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Just now, F250 said:

We're not passing up any undefeated conference champion. The Big 10 and SEC are already in. The ACC is trash and nobody left to stop FSU.

Our best option is Washington to drop a game.

I can conjure up a scenario in which SEC does not get in pretty easily. Bama loses to Auburn or Kentucky. Bama beats Georgia. 

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troph

troph 25227

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1 minute ago, Vertigo said:

I believe my picks for CFP at the beginning of the season were: Georgia, Washington, Michigan, FSU, which still looks on track with TX finishing 5th and just out of the CFP. But if some of those teams lose late, we have more than just one good win. Kansas is a quality win, Kansas State is a quality win - both will end top 25. If we do make it through the last three games, we will have another ranked opportunity in the CCG. That should be enough considering we also have a top 5 road win and our loss was a last second loss in a rivalry game against another top 15 team.

I said best we needed the best win and best loss, I did not say Texas would only have one good win. Kansas, KSU, and oSu to go with Bama are good wins. Doesn’t matter though there are already too many teams with better losses than us and we aren’t curb stomping weaker opponents. It’s not trending well.

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