The Home Stretch - Big 12 Championship Scenarios

[Js1 85109]

Standings as of 11/5:

Texas 5-1
Ok State 5-1
KU 4-2
KSU 4-2
OU 4-2
WV 4-2
ISU 4-2
Texas Tech 3-3
TCU 2-4
UH 2-4
BYU 2-4
Baylor 2-4
UCF 1-5
Cincinnati 0-6

Remaining schedules of the top 7: 

Texas - @ TCU, @ ISU, Texas Tech
Ok State - @ UCF, @ UH, BYU
KU - Tech, KSU, @ Cincinnati
KSU - Baylor, @ KU, ISU
OU - WV, @ BYU, TCU
WV - @ OU, Cincinnati, @ Baylor
ISU - @ BYU, Texas, @ KSU

[Wulaw Horn 18980]

4 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Standings as of 11/5:

Texas 5-1
Ok State 5-1
KU 4-2
KSU 4-2
OU 4-2
WV 4-2
ISU 4-2
Texas Tech 3-3
TCU 2-4
UH 2-4
BYU 2-4
Baylor 2-4
UCF 1-5
Cincinnati 0-6

Remaining schedules of the top 7: 

Texas - @ TCU, @ ISU, Texas Tech
Ok State - @ UCF, @ UH, BYU
KU - Tech, KSU, @ Cincinnati
KSU - Baylor, @ KU, ISU
OU - WV, @ BYU, TCU
WV - @ OU, Cincinnati, @ Baylor
ISU - @ BYU, Texas, @ KSU

I was hoping you completely lost your mind and were going to tell me who goes as the second rep in the case of a tiebreaker where us, OU, Kansas all finish at like 7-2. This works too I guess 😀

Edited November 5, 2023 by Wulaw Horn

[Stringer 1437]

If UT and OSU don’t win out, the tie breaker scenarios are going to be nuts.

[Wulaw Horn 18980]

Also only 4 games between those 7 teams is sort of lame. We’ve got 3 weeks left I’d have liked to see 6 or 7. 

[mdmost 42865]

oSu is in. UCF might be their only chance to lose in just purely a letdown after winning Bedlam but the new Big 12 entrants are 5-19 so far. Houston isn't winning and BYU might be the worst team in the Big 12.

So it's more about are we going to do our part or shit the bed like we always do. 

[6th Street 6357]

Texas Tech passing attack in the final game could the be spoiler in all of this 

[Js1 85109]

5 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I was hoping you completely lost your mind and were going to tell me who goes as the second rep in the case of a tiebreaker where us, OU, Kansas all finish at like 7-2. This works too I guess 😀

Oh god, I don’t even want to start discussing the tiebreakers bc they hurt my brain 

[Eastwood 4394]

My wishlist, in order of preference:

1. Texas plays against an OU that once again stumbles backwards into the title game. The game gets 9 million views and a 7 rating on TV, being the highest rated Big 12 Championship of all time and will remain that way for the remaining decade that the conference actually exists.

2. Texas plays Kansas State who stumbles backwards into the title game with a fully healthy squad.

3. Texas plays Oklahoma State so we can give Gundy's mullet a swhirlie one last time.

4. Texas plays Kansas so we can beat them twice in a season and put the "lost to Kansas" fully to bed.

[WBT 20421]

Quote

BIG 12 FOOTBALL SCHEDULING AND TIEBREAKER PROCEDURE 

Effective August 2023

Conference Competition. All teams will be scheduled to play nine games as part of the Conference schedule.

Championship Game Participants. The two teams that complete the conference regular season with the highest winning percentage(s) will be the representatives in the Conference Championship Game. The team that wins the championship game will be the Big 12 Champion. When two or more teams are tied for first or second place the tiebreaking procedures apply.   

 Big 12 Football Tiebreaking Procedures 

Two-Team Tie

1. If two teams are tied for first place both teams will participate in the championship game and the winner of the head-to-head will be the #1 seed. If there is not a tie for first place, but two teams are tied for second place, the two-team tiebreaker policy will apply, and the winner will be the #2 seed and visiting team.

If no game is played between the two tied teams or that game ends in a tie, the following tie-breaking procedures shall be applied.

2. Win percentage against the next highest placed common opponent in the standings (based on record in all games played within the Conference), proceeding through the standings.

When arriving at another group of tied teams while comparing records, use each team’s win percentage against the collective tied teams as a group (prior to that group’s own tie-breaking procedure) rather than the performance against individual tied teams.

3. Win percentage against all common conference opponents. 

4. Combined win percentage in conference games of conference opponents (ie, strength of conference schedule). 

5. Total number of wins in a 12-game season. The following conditions will apply to the calculation of the total number of wins:

Only one win against a team from the NCAA Football Championship Subdivision or lower division will be counted annually.

Any games that are exempted from counting against the annual maximum number of football contests per NCAA rules. (current Bylaw 17.10.5.2.1) shall not be included. 

6. Highest ranking by SportSource Analytics (team Rating Score metric) following the last weekend of regular-season games.

7. Coin toss 

Multiple-Team Ties

In the event of a tie between more than two teams, the following procedures will be used. After one team has an advantage and is “seeded”, all remaining teams in the multiple-team tiebreaker will repeat the multiple-team tie-breaking procedure. If at any point the multiple-team tie is reduced to two teams, the two-team tie-breaking procedure will be applied.

1. Head-to-head (best cumulative win percentage in games among the tied teams). If not, every tied team has played each other, go to step 2. 

2. Record against the next highest placed common opponent in the standings (based on record in all games played within the conference), proceeding through the standings.

When arriving at another group of tied teams while comparing records, use each team’s win percentage against the collective tied teams as a group (prior to that group’s own tie-breaking procedure) rather than the performance against individual tied teams.

3. Win percentage against all common conference opponents (must be common among all teams involved in the tie).

4. Combined win percentage in conference games of conference opponents (ie, strength of conference schedule).

5. Total number of wins in a 12-game season. The following conditions will apply to the calculation of the total number of wins:

Only one win against a team from the NCAA Football Championship Subdivision or lower division will be counted annually. 

Any games that are exempted from counting against the annual maximum number of football contests per NCAA rules. (current Bylaw 17.10.5.2.1) shall not be included.

6. Highest ranking by SportSource Analytics (team Rating Score metric) following the last weekend of regular-season games.

7. Coin toss 

https://big12sports.com/news/2008/7/31/1546006.aspx

 

Unless I'm missing it, they imply but don't explicitly state there that h2h is the first tiebreaker in a 2-way tie, which is par for the course for the XII office.

Also, the url has a 2008 date and the byline has a 2020 date but the text says effective Aug 2023, so 🤷‍♂️

[lilMAC25 3778]

To belabor the obvious, For Texas, nothing has changed. Win out and we are in.

[lilMAC25 3778]

3 minutes ago, Eastwood said:

My wishlist, in order of preference:

1. Texas plays against an OU that once again stumbles backwards into the title game. The game gets 9 million views and a 7 rating on TV, being the highest rated Big 12 Championship of all time and will remain that way for the remaining decade that the conference actually exists.

2. Texas plays Kansas State who stumbles backwards into the title game with a fully healthy squad.

3. Texas plays Oklahoma State so we can give Gundy's mullet a swhirlie one last time.

4. Texas plays Kansas so we can beat them twice in a season and put the "lost to Kansas" fully to bed.

Just get there. That’s what matters.

[Red Five 40661]

I did not realize that OSU is essentially in. From Gerry Hamilton:

"Oklahoma State would most likely have to lose two of three to not make the Big 12 Championship game due to tie breaking wins over Kansas, Kansas State and Oklahoma. The only way the Cowboys could get left out is if they dropped one game, and Iowa State won out. The Cyclones remaining games are at BYU, vs. Texas and at Kansas State."

And OSU finishes with UCF, Cougar high, and BYU. 

[immamac 42518]

I like the Oklahoma state and Texas big XII Championship. 

[utexas8 1433]

There’s no way okie st doesn’t make it. The rest of the schedule is cake.

I hope we dont screw it up. I have ptsd from Houston. I’ll let yesterday go because of maalik and we should get Quinn back.

[LTtxfan 48970]

Texas needs to win out, or else some tiebreaker scenario probably keeps Horns out of the B12 Championship Game...  

[Not a cat 5619]

14 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I was hoping you completely lost your mind and were going to tell me who goes as the second rep in the case of a tiebreaker where us, OU, Kansas all finish at like 7-2. This works too I guess 😀

As I read it, in a 3 way tie with OSU, OU and us, we're fucked since our cumulative winning percentage in games we've played is 0, OU is .500 and OSU is 1.000.  That is IMO by far the most likely 3 way tie to happen. 

[Wulaw Horn 18980]

5 minutes ago, Not a cat said:

As I read it, in a 3 way tie with OSU, OU and us, we're fucked since our cumulative winning percentage in games we've played is 0, OU is .500 and OSU is 1.000.  That is IMO by far the most likely 3 way tie to happen. 

Yeah but that isn’t happening imo. Most likely 3 way tie is texas v Oklahoma v Kansas or Kansas state. 
OSU got nobody coming home. 

[A-Tex Devil 2445]

I could see Houston beating Okie St because they (specifically their passing game) are a different team at home.  Doubt it, but possible.  They still likely get in though   

While I want one more shot at Okie St, I just don’t trust the Big XII, and it’s even more stark after that no call PI in the end zone yesterday.  That was some fucking egregious 2015 Okie St-UT shit.  Our best case for committee beauty contest (if needed) and fairness was OU again in CCG.  If anyone else, particularly OSU, and it would never happen, CDC ought to petition the conference for neutral refs in CCG pointing to Commissioner’s comments to Texas Tech and the OU game yesterday.  

[Texas Wahoo 3383]

11 minutes ago, Not a cat said:

As I read it, in a 3 way tie with OSU, OU and us, we're fucked since our cumulative winning percentage in games we've played is 0, OU is .500 and OSU is 1.000.  That is IMO by far the most likely 3 way tie to happen. 

Terrible grammar aside, it appears that only applies if all of the teams have played each other. Since Texas and OSU did not play, I think it moves to the next common opponent. 

[oSuJeff97 3435]

I was actually bummed when the schedule came out this year and we didn’t get to play y’all one more time so us playing each other in the Big 12 title game would be pretty awesome.

Honestly it’s still hard to process that we’re in this situation after watching us play our first 4 games, lol. 

[Laga4 1270]

If we figure out a football game is 4 quarters we shouldn't have any trouble winning out.  

[UTEE97 3429]

39 minutes ago, Not a cat said:

As I read it, in a 3 way tie with OSU, OU and us, we're fucked since our cumulative winning percentage in games we've played is 0, OU is .500 and OSU is 1.000.  That is IMO by far the most likely 3 way tie to happen. 

If OSU wins out and we don't, then OSU is the #1 team selected. Then the tie-breakers will apply to other teams with 2 losses.

[Rockethorn1978 6061]

How the hell did okie lite get blown out at home by south Alabama? Anyone can lose and nothing is a lock as we’ve escaped Houston and k state. Should be a fun 3 weeks. This is better then going 6-6 so I’ll take the close wins.

[LTtxfan 48970]

2 minutes ago, Rockethorn1978 said:

How the hell did okie lite get blown out at home by south Alabama? Anyone can lose and nothing is a lock as we’ve escaped Houston and k state. Should be a fun 3 weeks. This is better then going 6-6 so I’ll take the close wins.

Gundy

[Texas Jeff 1932]

Assuming the one loss / two loss teams beat all of the 3 or more loss teams, there are only four games that matter.

Nov 11, West Virginia @ OU - loser is out

Nov 18, Texas @ Iowa St - Texas wins and it's Texas vs OSU in the championship.  Otherwise a lot of ties that do not favor Texas.

Nov 18, Kansas St @ Kansas - loser is out, but the winner does not have favorable tiebreakers

Nov 25, Iowa St @ Kansas St - loser is out.  The winner either has tiebreaker advantages (Iowa St) or does not (Kansas St).

If Texas loses to Iowa St, there will be a three or four way tie between Texas, one or two of Iowa St/Kansas/K State, and the winner of OU/WVA.

[mdleast 8261]

If we make it to the championship game, I would definitely love it to be against Okie St to complete our double birds see you motherfuckers farewell tour

[Huckleberry 32701]

1 hour ago, Not a cat said:

As I read it, in a 3 way tie with OSU, OU and us, we're fucked since our cumulative winning percentage in games we've played is 0, OU is .500 and OSU is 1.000.  That is IMO by far the most likely 3 way tie to happen. 

No, that step is skipped because not all three teams have played each other. 

I see I'm late, but that's the case. I blame the clock change somehow. 

Edited November 5, 2023 by Huckleberry

[BigHornedLurker 1894]

14 minutes ago, mdleast said:

If we make it to the championship game, I would definitely love it to be against Okie St to complete our double birds see you motherfuckers farewell tour

If we play okstate , the fuckery will make the 2015 game look subtle 

[6th Street 6357]

https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/college-football-bowl-projections-ole-miss-tulane-jump-into-new-years-six-games-as-oklahoma-falls-out/amp/

Win out and Sugar Bowl, lose 1 and it's Cotton or Peach with 10-2 record

Edited November 5, 2023 by 6th Street

[Mother mopar 3302]

How the hell did okie lite get blown out at home by south Alabama? Anyone can lose and nothing is a lock as we’ve escaped Houston and k state. Should be a fun 3 weeks. This is better then going 6-6 so I’ll take the close wins.

Because OSU had Ollie Gordon in witness protection.

[Js1 85109]

1 minute ago, Mother mopar said:

37 minutes ago, Rockethorn1978 said:

How the hell did okie lite get blown out at home by south Alabama? Anyone can lose and nothing is a lock as we’ve escaped Houston and k state. Should be a fun 3 weeks. This is better then going 6-6 so I’ll take the close wins.

Because OSU had Ollie Gordon in witness protection.

Gundy also couldn’t decide on a QB to save his life 

[ousux 5587]

Texas Tech passing attack in the final game could the be spoiler in all of this 

Only if we get Mar and his crew who allow sand aggy O-line to hold as much as they like. Otherwise Burke, Sweat and B Murphy will be living in their backfield.

[TxTower 650]

So win out and we get another shot at Jawga in the Sugar Bowl?

[6th Street 6357]

2 minutes ago, ousux said:

1 hour ago, 6th Street said:

Texas Tech passing attack in the final game could the be spoiler in all of this 

Only if we get Mar and his crew who allow sand aggy O-line to hold as much as they like. Otherwise Burke, Sweat and B Murphy will be living in their backfield.

We should be holding too then

[Josef Pwag 1727]

1 hour ago, immamac said:

I like the Oklahoma state and Texas big XII Championship. 

Why?

[ousux 5587]

I like the Oklahoma state and Texas big XII Championship. 

Same, the gooners will be extra salty about little bro getting in ahead of them.

[utexas8 1433]

I know I’m putting the cart before the horse or whatever but I’m not sure about the playoffs. Washington just won’t die. And if Oregon does beat them they are in.

Can ole miss beat UGA in Georgia, no.
Can UF or Miami pull it together for fsu. Don’t think so.

Our best chance is Washington losing before the pac 12 championship and Oregon losing another too. Do they play anybody that can beat them. Arizona? Maybe Utah beats Washington. Has usc played Oregon. We need usc to pull it together for one game.

[fellside 1076]

3 minutes ago, utexas8 said:

I know I’m putting the cart before the horse or whatever but I’m not sure about the playoffs. Washington just won’t die. And if Oregon does beat them they are in.

Can ole miss beat UGA in Georgia, no.
Can UF or Miami pull it together for fsu. Don’t think so.

Our best chance is Washington losing before the pac 12 championship and Oregon losing another too. Do they play anybody that can beat them. Arizona? Maybe Utah beats Washington. Has usc played Oregon. We need usc to pull it together for one game.

Oregon could lose to USC or Oregon State.

Washington could lose to Washington State or Utah. Feasibly. Then you just hope the higher ranked team loses the Pac 12 championship.

[A-Tex Devil 2445]

Yeah - we just need FSU to lose and if we win out I think we are in.  The Bama win gets us in over any 1 loss non-conference champ.  Period.  

[bschoolprof 6232]

any team we've yet to play that can pass just scares you to death

[Pato del Muerto 52342]

22 minutes ago, fellside said:

Oregon could lose to USC or Oregon State.

Washington could lose to Washington State or Utah. Feasibly. Then you just hope the higher ranked team loses the Pac 12 championship.

I think all we need is pac or acc  conference champ to have 1 loss. Revenue/eyeballs/storyline will take it from there.  

[ApocalypseTexas 297]

22 minutes ago, A-Tex Devil said:

Yeah - we just need FSU to lose and if we win out I think we are in.  The Bama win gets us in over any 1 loss non-conference champ.  Period.  

I think you are going to be surprised when the committee puts Bama ahead of us this week.

[Pato del Muerto 52342]

2 minutes ago, ApocalypseTexas said:

I think you are going to be surprised when the committee puts Bama ahead of us this week.

that will take care of itself naturally, either with them losing another game or taking Georgia’s spot.  Because they won’t put a Georgia team coming off of a loss to bama over us, having beaten bama in ttown. 

[billfromlaketravis 11359]

I found myself rooting for USC last night. Strange times indeed. 

[A-Tex Devil 2445]

6 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

that will take care of itself naturally, either with them losing another game or taking Georgia’s spot.  Because they won’t put a Georgia team coming off of a loss to bama over us, having beaten bama in ttown. 

This.  I could give a shit what rankings are through Thanksgiving.  They’ve already shown they will completely go the other way on the final playoff selection. 

[Hard Times 300]

I know we all hate to see Blowu win, but honestly it would have been better if they had won yesterday. If Texas loses another it's almost now way. If Blowu had won yesterday we likely have the SOS over okie lite and head to head over the kansas teams and it's a rematch in Dallas for the second time.

[immamac 42518]

2 minutes ago, Hard Times said:

I know we all hate to see Blowu win, but honestly it would have been better if they had won yesterday. If Texas loses another it's almost now way. If Blowu had won yesterday we likely have the SOS over okie lite and head to head over the kansas teams and it's a rematch in Dallas for the second time.

Fuck OU 

[Dbeasy 14967]

Alabama could conceivably pass Texas, with a win over LSU and against undefeated Georgia. I originally didn’t think that but our close games and Okla St Big 12 game, combined with them winning now more impressively could cause problems. With undefeated M/OSU, Washington, FSU, and Georgia/Bama, it’s looking tough to get in to the playoff. 

[UTGrad98 2258]

I'm just happy to be discussing all of this in November.  It has been a long time. 

[MissingInAction 24815]

2 hours ago, 6th Street said:

Texas Tech passing attack in the final game could the be spoiler in all of this