The Home Stretch - Big 12 Championship Scenarios

[Tex Long 4,445]

I have this image of Gundy looking like the dog luring the cat into the washing machine with the "Cat Fud" sign... he's going "Oh, please! Oh, please!" luring us into the CCG so they can close out the year ruining the season for both OU and us, and being heroes of the Left Behind.

I ain't worried about it - them ol' dreams are only in yer head.

['stache 21,866]

18 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

If there was a 3 way tie at 7-2 between Texas, osu, and ou, how would that tiebreaker go?

I think its the nightmare scenario for OSU fans, Bedlam Part 2.

As far as I can tell, that scenario requires ISU to beat Texas and then lose to KSU, and KSU to lose to KU then beat ISU (both unlikely so hopefully this doesn't happen).

That sets up OU, OSU, and UT in a tie at 7-2. No one beat the other two so it goes to record against highest rated common opponent, ISU. OU beat ISU, OSU and UT lost to ISU (in the scenario), so OU gets the top seed.

Tiebreakers then start over for UT and OSU. No head to head, so highest rated common opponent. That's OU. OSU beat OU, UT lost to OU.

So Bedlam Part 2.

It's why OSU fans are all rooting for UT this weekend. I know some UT grads IRL who are pretty cool, wouldn't bother me too much to go out losing to UT, but losing our last bedlam win would suck so bad I can't even think about it at this point. UT beating ISU kills that possibility I think. 

[Pato del Muerto 52,600]

3 minutes ago, 'stache said:

As far as I can tell, that scenario requires ISU to beat Texas and then lose to KSU

Isu already has 3 losses. Texas can beat them, lose to tech for the 2nd loss, and then just have ksu lose to Kansas or isu. Right?

so in that case, Texas beats isu but doesn’t make the ccg. 
 

 

aaaaaaaand never mind I can’t read this morning. Isu does have 2 losses only. 

Edited November 17, 2023 by Pato del Muerto

[Horn Dogg 3,965]

2 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Isu already has 3 losses. Texas can beat them, lose to tech for the 2nd loss, and then just have ksu lose to Kansas or isu. Right?

so in that case, Texas beats isu but doesn’t make the ccg. 

Wouldn’t we still get in over KSU with the H2H tiebreaker in that scenario?

[Pancho 44,995]

2 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Isu already has 3 losses. Texas can beat them, lose to tech for the 2nd loss, and then just have ksu lose to Kansas or isu. Right?

so in that case, Texas beats isu but doesn’t make the ccg. 

Isu has 2 big 12 losses, not 3

['stache 21,866]

2 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Isu already has 3 losses. Texas can beat them, lose to tech for the 2nd loss, and then just have ksu lose to Kansas or isu. Right?

so in that case, Texas beats isu but doesn’t make the ccg. 

In that scenario KU is the highest rated common opponent. OSU and UT beat KU and OU lost to them, so its UT v. OSU.

[Pato del Muerto 52,600]

2 minutes ago, Pancho said:

Isu has 2 big 12 losses, not 3

['stache 21,866]

3 minutes ago, Horn Dogg said:

Wouldn’t we still get in over KSU with the H2H tiebreaker in that scenario?

If its a four way tie UT, OU, OSU, KSU, it looks like it depends on who UT loses to, and is super complicated. I can't believe I'm wasting time, but using the generator and figuring out the explanation is kind of fun.

If the loss is to ISU, then its KSU v. OU. Highest rated common opponent is ISU. KSU and OU beat them, UT and OSU lost to them. Seems that's the end of it, but it's not, the rule requires a top seed, then start over. So the 1 seed between KSU and OU is highest common opponent which is KU who KSU beat and OU lost to (in the scenario), so KSU is top seed. Then start over between OU, OSU, and UT. Highest rated common opponent is ISU. OSU and UT lost to ISU, OU beat them, so OU is the 2 seed. https://bball.notnothing.net/bracket.php?conf=big12fb

If UT beats ISU and loses to Tech, its OSU v. UT. Highest rated common opponent is both KU and ISU tied at 7th. UT (2-0), KSU (2-0) OSU (1-1), OU (1-1). For the 1 seed, UT has H2H over KSU so they're the one. Tiebreaker then starts over between OSU, KSU, and OU. OSU wins that tie breaker having swept the other two. https://bball.notnothing.net/bracket.php?conf=big12fb

 

[Pokoloco 1,282]

Best scenario for me is if we win out and don't go to the CCG. The way I see it, it'll be one less loss.

Yes, I have a loser mentality. 40 years of being an OSU fan will do that.

[Huckleberry 33,096]

2 hours ago, 'stache said:

Am I right that you beating ISU clinches a spot in the CCG? I’m running tiebreakers and dont see a final week scenario that leaves you out. I might be missing something though.

I think this might be right but looking at all 4,096 scenarios where Texas beats Iowa State and loses to Tech might take more time than I have.

[Js1 85,576]

21 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

I think this might be right but looking at all 4,096 scenarios where Texas beats Iowa State and loses to Tech might take more time than I have.

Beating ISU pretty much ensures we are in.

We'd need a lot of chaos to make it if we lose to ISU and beat Tech.  Like, a lot. 

So let's just fucking win. 

[MonkeyDoughnut 10,356]

1 hour ago, 'stache said:

If its a four way tie UT, OU, OSU, KSU, it looks like it depends on who UT loses to, and is super complicated. I can't believe I'm wasting time, but using the generator and figuring out the explanation is kind of fun.

If the loss is to ISU, then its KSU v. OU. Highest rated common opponent is ISU. KSU and OU beat them, UT and OSU lost to them. Seems that's the end of it, but it's not, the rule requires a top seed, then start over. So the 1 seed between KSU and OU is highest common opponent which is KU who KSU beat and OU lost to (in the scenario), so KSU is top seed. Then start over between OU, OSU, and UT. Highest rated common opponent is ISU. OSU and UT lost to ISU, OU beat them, so OU is the 2 seed. https://bball.notnothing.net/bracket.php?conf=big12fb

If UT beats ISU and loses to Tech, its OSU v. UT. Highest rated common opponent is both KU and ISU tied at 7th. UT (2-0), KSU (2-0) OSU (1-1), OU (1-1). For the 1 seed, UT has H2H over KSU so they're the one. Tiebreaker then starts over between OSU, KSU, and OU. OSU wins that tie breaker having swept the other two. https://bball.notnothing.net/bracket.php?conf=big12fb

 

Yeah, gets way complicated if Texas loses to ISU as they would be in play as well and if Kansas loses to KSU it puts them being highest rated opponent in play with Tech and WVU.

[TrashMaster G 17,599]

1 hour ago, Huckleberry said:

I think this might be right but looking at all 4,096 scenarios where Texas beats Iowa State and loses to Tech might take more time than I have.

The possibilities will trim down considerably by the time we kickoff tomorrow. Make sure and update us before the game starts.

['stache 21,866]

I'll probably hope for UT to win either way but if we shit the bed again at Houston before your game it really won't matter to me anymore.

[Pato del Muerto 52,600]

1 hour ago, Huckleberry said:

I think this might be right but looking at all 4,096 scenarios where Texas beats Iowa State and loses to Tech might take more time than I have.

Where have you gone, syntex, our website turns its seedy eyes to you. 

[LateAughtsHorn 588]

At this point is there any chance we can get a dirt burglars rematch? Most scenarios seem to involve either us or OU, but not together. 

['stache 21,866]

4 minutes ago, LateAughtsHorn said:

At this point is there any chance we can get a dirt burglars rematch? Most scenarios seem to involve either us or OU, but not together. 

If OSU and KSU both lose this weekend, then OU and UT both just have to win the next week. I think it's not discussed as much because you won't need tiebreakers.

Edited November 17, 2023 by 'stache

[hook me 2,103]

6 minutes ago, LateAughtsHorn said:

At this point is there any chance we can get a dirt burglars rematch? Most scenarios seem to involve either us or OU, but not together. 

From what I can tell OSU just needs to drop either of the remaining 2 games for OU to make the Championship. They hold the first tiebreaker over KSU (record vs. the #1 seed) & everyone else would have 3 losses.

['stache 21,866]

3 minutes ago, hook me said:

From what I can tell OSU just needs to drop either of the remaining 2 games for OU to make the Championship. They hold the first tiebreaker over KSU (record vs. the #1 seed) & everyone else would have 3 losses.

Looks like you are correct, all that needs to happen is for OSU to lose one of the last two games regardless of what KSU does.

[Frank Drebin 5,655]

I was not surprised Okie Lite lost to UCF after that emotional win.  I think they win out.  UH has a small chance to beat them, but I doubt they will.  And BYU is beating no one at this point.

I would prefer to play Okie Lite in title game.  Because I think Alan Bowman sucks and Dillon Gabriel/OU is a much tougher matchup for us than Okie Lite.

[TrashMaster G 17,599]

But, against OU there is at least a chance the refs will be neutral, whereas with oSu they will screw us upside down and sideways. 

[LateAughtsHorn 588]

27 minutes ago, TrashMaster G said:

But, against OU there is at least a chance the refs will be neutral, whereas with oSu they will screw us upside down and sideways. 

I doubt at that point the conference would even try to hide it. I'd fully expect a 2015 style job. 

[Stringer 1,439]

Can you ref conspiracy guys go jerk off in your other thread? You’re gumming up every other thread on this board.

[Horn Dogg 3,965]

6 hours ago, 'stache said:

If its a four way tie UT, OU, OSU, KSU, it looks like it depends on who UT loses to, and is super complicated. I can't believe I'm wasting time, but using the generator and figuring out the explanation is kind of fun.

If the loss is to ISU, then its KSU v. OU. Highest rated common opponent is ISU. KSU and OU beat them, UT and OSU lost to them. Seems that's the end of it, but it's not, the rule requires a top seed, then start over. So the 1 seed between KSU and OU is highest common opponent which is KU who KSU beat and OU lost to (in the scenario), so KSU is top seed. Then start over between OU, OSU, and UT. Highest rated common opponent is ISU. OSU and UT lost to ISU, OU beat them, so OU is the 2 seed. https://bball.notnothing.net/bracket.php?conf=big12fb

If UT beats ISU and loses to Tech, its OSU v. UT. Highest rated common opponent is both KU and ISU tied at 7th. UT (2-0), KSU (2-0) OSU (1-1), OU (1-1). For the 1 seed, UT has H2H over KSU so they're the one. Tiebreaker then starts over between OSU, KSU, and OU. OSU wins that tie breaker having swept the other two. https://bball.notnothing.net/bracket.php?conf=big12fb

 

Fuck me that’s complicated!  Thanks for the insights.

[Guadaloopy 11,013]

But wait, guys... has anyone explained this to the coaches yet?

[Js1 85,576]

Crap I knew I forgot to do something today! 

[InkaUtexas 26,109]

So what I am reading is if we do not win out we are gonna get screwed. Well shit, only one thing to do. 

[Stringer 1,439]

This analytics guy, Kelley Ford is showing us at 100% if we beat ISU and are still in decent shape with a loss.  He said that he integrated the tiebreakers into the model, but as we have seen, they are confusing as shit.  So, take it for what it's worth.

[BigHornedLurker 1,968]

Just now, Stringer said:

This analytics guy, Kelley Ford is showing us at 100% if we beat ISU and are still in decent shape with a loss.  He said that he integrated the tiebreakers into the model, but as we have seen, they are confusing as shit.  So, take it for what it's worth.

That and I wouldn't put it past the big 12 to change the rules again 

[LTtxfan 49,356]

Not sure I buy that a Texas win today clinches B12 Championship appearance.  

 

[Horn Dogg 3,965]

What if OU continues to suck and loses to BYU?  Are we pretty much in?

[hook me 2,103]

1 hour ago, LTtxfan said:

Not sure I buy that a Texas win today clinches B12 Championship appearance.  

 

Well, it does

[Js1 85,576]

19 minutes ago, hook me said:

Well, it does

Effectively. We won’t want to end up in a 7-2 tie that includes ISU If we lose to them. But we are in much better shape in a 7-2 tie (if we lose to Tech) that includes KSU instead. 

Edited November 18, 2023 by Js1

[JGrayDBU 344]

watching BYU vs. Sooners now.  Tie Game!  This could be good, a home BYU win.  Go Mormons!

[Pancho 44,995]

1 hour ago, LTtxfan said:

Not sure I buy that a Texas win today clinches B12 Championship appearance.  

 

You’re not sure you buy this but you’re not providing any reasons why it’s not true.

[Hagbard Celine 10,923]

33 minutes ago, JGrayDBU said:

watching BYU vs. Sooners now.  Tie Game!  This could be good, a home BYU win.  Go Mormons!

PATRIARCHAL TESTIMONY HOLLA

 

[LTtxfan 49,356]

33 minutes ago, Pancho said:

You’re not sure you buy this but you’re not providing any reasons why it’s not true.

 

Don't trust B12 and Yormark.

[Hagbard Celine 10,923]

quick reference guide for today's desired results (league records going in to today)

@ brethren (2-5) over thieves (5-2) on now espn 17-17 @ half

cincy (1-6) over @ mountain aggy (4-3) no linear

rape (2-5) @ roach (2-5) have no idea how this might affect the umpteenth tiebreaker no linear

@ the high school (2-5) over oSu (5-2) 1500tt deuce

ucf (2-5) over @ tceh (4-3) 1600tt fs2

@ toucans (4-3) over purple wizards (5-2) 1800tt fs1

[Horn Dogg 3,965]

1 minute ago, Hagbard Celine said:

quick reference guide for today's desired results (league records going in to today)

@ brethren (2-5) over thieves (5-2) on now espn 17-17 @ half

cincy (1-6) over @ mountain aggy (4-3) no linear

rape (2-5) @ roach (2-5) have no idea how this might affect the umpteenth tiebreaker no linear

@ the high school (2-5) over oSu (5-2) 1500tt deuce

ucf (2-5) over @ tceh (4-3) 1600tt fs2

@ toucans (4-3) over purple wizards (5-2) 1800tt fs1

Just chiming in to say Fuck Oklahoma!

[TrashMaster G 17,599]

4 hours ago, LTtxfan said:

Not sure I buy that a Texas win today clinches B12 Championship appearance.  

 

The problem with Danny Davis' "analysis" is he doesn't address a scenario where we are in a 3-way tie with OU and oSu.

[Mother mopar 3,324]

OSU doing what OSU does, lulz.

[blacklab 11,951]

56 minutes ago, Mother mopar said:

OSU doing what OSU does, lulz.

not so fast my friend

[USNALonghorn 5,078]

So did we clinch?

[Texas Wahoo 3,418]

So who’s going to walk through all the possibilities? 

['stache 21,866]

Thanks for winning. 

[Pancho 44,995]

1 minute ago, USNALonghorn said:

So did we clinch?

No because ou and OSU won today

[Pato del Muerto 52,600]

So what’s the combo that keeps us out?  Win and we are in. Lose but 2 way tie and we are in.  Many 3 way tie combos available and a 4 way still alive. 
 

does it matter what order the 3 loss teams finish in?  How is THAT decided?

Edited November 19, 2023 by Pato del Muerto

[LTtxfan 49,356]

Just Beat Tech...  LEAVE NO DOUBT !!! 🤘

[Mother mopar 3,324]

So what’s the combo that keeps us out?  Win and we are in. Lose but 2 way tie and we are in.  Many 3 way tie combos available and a 4 way still alive. 
 
does it matter what order the 3 loss teams finish in?  How is THAT decided?

Doesn't matter just win.

[utexas8 1,468]