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The Home Stretch - Big 12 Championship Scenarios

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Tex Long

Tex Long 4663

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NSIAP

The most embarrassing scenario for the XII is to have OSU in the CCG against us and listen to the national hype for a participant in that Championship to be a team that got their asses handed to them by Directional Alabama. In their own house.

I can hear it now... "That's right, Jim, the Big 12 contenders for their Championship trophy are 1-1 against the <snnrt> state of <mmmphh> Ala <bbbfppp> Bama <bwahhahaha>!"

 

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Hmbre97
Hmbre97
The Ace of Aces
The Ace of Aces

Beat the ever living fuck out of Texas Tech on principle. Make all scenarios irrelevant. 

Pato del Muerto
Pato del Muerto

Strange women lying in ponds distributing swords is no way to determine a champion

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Mitch Cumsteen

Mitch Cumsteen 18963

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1. Fuck Tech. We need to beat their ass regardless of whether a conference championship is on the line. They deserve our best shot and to get their ass handed to them.

2. I just want to win the conference on the way out. Period. End of story.

3. All things being equal, it would be nice to play Oklahoma State and go out with scoreboard on everybody.

4. Beating OU in the championship game and redeeming the RRS loss would probably be the best case scenario for the making the playoffs. I'm sure a bunch of wacky shit will happen the last two weeks of the season because college football, but if it comes down to Texas and Oregon, both with similar records and redemption wins, maybe the Bama game (and hopefully a Tech beatdown vs a common opponent) puts us in over them?

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oSuJeff97

oSuJeff97 3439

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1 hour ago, BrazilHorn said:

It’s OU. He could have killed a day care full of kids live on television and he’d be playing “pending investigation” 

The proper OUsux nomenclature is "we're handling it internally."

E.G. "We watched a video of Joe Mixon punching out a co-ed. We will be handling his punishment internally."

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TrashMaster G

TrashMaster G 18094

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27 minutes ago, Mitch Cumsteen said:

1. Fuck Tech. We need to beat their ass regardless of whether a conference championship is on the line. They deserve our best shot and to get their ass handed to them.

2. I just want to win the conference on the way out. Period. End of story.

3. All things being equal, it would be nice to play Oklahoma State and go out with scoreboard on everybody.

4. Beating OU in the championship game and redeeming the RRS loss would probably be the best case scenario for the making the playoffs. I'm sure a bunch of wacky shit will happen the last two weeks of the season because college football, but if it comes down to Texas and Oregon, both with similar records and redemption wins, maybe the Bama game (and hopefully a Tech beatdown vs a common opponent) puts us in over them?

All of this.

I'm impressed at your clear thinking with all of the bric-a-brac surrounding you at home.

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Pancho

Pancho 46312

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Posted
Just now, BrazilHorn said:

They will run as many permutations as it takes to somehow knock Texas out of title game appearance.

I think the opposite. I think they want/need Texas to win because that clears up a good chunk of it. We *might* have reached a point where the B12 is so embarrassed they need Texas (who they hate) to help them save face. 

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oSuJeff97

oSuJeff97 3439

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2 minutes ago, Pancho said:

I think the opposite. I think they want/need Texas to win because that clears up a good chunk of it. We *might* have reached a point where the B12 is so embarrassed they need Texas (who they hate) to help them save face. 

Was gonna say. Texas losing to Tech is really what potentially throws the whole thing into tie-breaker hell chaos.

If Texas wins, it's pretty straightforward and it will likely come down to the OSU-BYU game since we'll know the outcome of OU-TCU at that point. Assuming OU wins then it's either OSU (if they beat BYU) or OU (if OSU loses).

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'stache

'stache 22143

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Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, oSuJeff97 said:

Was gonna say. Texas losing to Tech is really what potentially throws the whole thing into tie-breaker hell chaos.

If Texas wins, it's pretty straightforward and it will likely come down to the OSU-BYU game since we'll know the outcome of OU-TCU at that point. Assuming OU wins then it's either OSU (if they beat BYU) or OU (if OSU loses).

This. I don't get the consternation. All conferences are going to this divisionless model with no scheduling consistency. It's going to be like this pretty much every year. With the four major conferences all doing this, one or more, maybe even all, will have dozens of last week scenarios. This year's Big 12 race is actually relatively straight forward as long at UT beats a terrible Tech team on Friday.

Edited by 'stache
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oSuJeff97

oSuJeff97 3439

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, &#x27;stache said:

This. I don't get the consternation. All conferences are going to this divisionless model with no scheduling consistency. It's going to be like this pretty much every year. With the four major conferences all doing this, one or more, maybe even all, will have dozens of last week scenarios. This year's Big 12 race is actually relatively straight forward as long at UT beats a terrible Tech team on Friday.

Yep.

This tie-breaker hell is going to be an annual thing that people are just gonna have to get used to. You know a scenario is coming in a major conference where you get like 3 undefeated teams in the same year. That'll make for some fun, level-headed discussions I'm sure... :D

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Paper_jam

Paper_jam 851

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30 minutes ago, satyanash said:

 

128 possible outcomes?!  If only we had available to us some type of calculating machine, capable of rapid computations and the application of rigorous logic, that could solve for these outcomes and lay forth a definitive and complete analysis of this seemingly impenetrable mystery.

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ClubWhatever

ClubWhatever 12309

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Posted
4 minutes ago, oSuJeff97 said:

Yep.

This tie-breaker hell is going to be an annual thing that people are just gonna have to get used to. You know a scenario is coming in a major conference where you get like 3 undefeated teams in the same year. That'll make for some fun, level-headed discussions I'm sure... :D

Four-team conference tournaments. 

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Js1

Js1 87183

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1 hour ago, BrazilHorn said:

They will run as many permutations as it takes to somehow knock Texas out of title game appearance.

Just win. 

That's the message of the week.  The Big 12 says "win and in" so....

Win and get in. 

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Captain Ron

Captain Ron 13133

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21 minutes ago, TrashMaster G said:

I'm impressed that someone at the B12 office only took until Monday to figure out that 2 to the 7th power is 128.

It's because they kept losing count.

"Ok, trying again!!! Be quiet this time!!!"

"Two" (press 2 on calculator)

"Times" (presses X on calculator)

"Two" (press 2 on calculator)

"Times" (presses X on calculator)

"Two" (press 2 on calculator)

"Times" (presses X on calculator)

"Two" (press 2 on calculator)

(someone coughs loudly)

"Wait, was that 3 or 4 times? Do I count the first 2 I entered? CRAP!!!"

"STARTING OVER!!!"

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Jiggy-Z

Jiggy-Z 3509

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38 minutes ago, Paper_jam said:

128 possible outcomes?!  If only we had available to us some type of calculating machine, capable of rapid computations and the application of rigorous logic, that could solve for these outcomes and lay forth a definitive and complete analysis of this seemingly impenetrable mystery.

...with result/scenarios presented on a "sheet" that "spread" out the combinations - a "spread sheet", if you will. This type of presentation would excel and be as easy as 123.

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WBT

WBT 20979

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Posted
31 minutes ago, TrashMaster G said:

I'm impressed that someone at the B12 office only took until Monday to figure out that 2 to the 7th power is 128.

Damnit that joke immediately came to mind but I'm too late.  I'll just point out that 2 games are between teams with 4+ losses and therefore can't affect the race, so it's really only 32.

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Dnaguy

Dnaguy 12630

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1 hour ago, 'stache said:

This. I don't get the consternation. All conferences are going to this divisionless model with no scheduling consistency. It's going to be like this pretty much every year. With the four major conferences all doing this, one or more, maybe even all, will have dozens of last week scenarios. This year's Big 12 race is actually relatively straight forward as long at UT beats a terrible Tech team on Friday.

Will teams even want to make the CCG if you already have 1 loss?

With an expanded playoff, a 1 loss three way tie would kind of favor the team that doesn’t have to play. Sure they have a chance at a bye, but they would almost certainly make the playoffs and wouldn’t risk getting a second loss & miss out.

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'stache

'stache 22143

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1 minute ago, Dnaguy said:

Will teams even want to make the CCG if you already have 1 loss?

With an expanded playoff, a 1 loss three way tie would kind of favor the team that doesn’t have to play. Sure they have a chance at a bye, but they would almost certainly make the playoffs and wouldn’t risk getting a second loss & miss out.

The Big 10 is just going to be Ohio State v. Michigan twice in a row most years, right?

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WBT

WBT 20979

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1 hour ago, &#x27;stache said:

This. I don't get the consternation. All conferences are going to this divisionless model with no scheduling consistency. It's going to be like this pretty much every year. With the four major conferences all doing this, one or more, maybe even all, will have dozens of last week scenarios. This year's Big 12 race is actually relatively straight forward as long at UT beats a terrible Tech team on Friday.

 

56 minutes ago, oSuJeff97 said:

Yep.

This tie-breaker hell is going to be an annual thing that people are just gonna have to get used to. You know a scenario is coming in a major conference where you get like 3 undefeated teams in the same year. That'll make for some fun, level-headed discussions I'm sure... :D

It's almost as if 16 teams is too many when trying to determine a champion when limited to a 9 game schedule.  Someone should think of trying smaller regional conferences instead.

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BigHornedLurker

BigHornedLurker 2176

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4 minutes ago, WBT said:

 

It's almost as if 16 teams is too many when trying to determine a champion when limited to a 9 game schedule.  Someone should think of trying smaller regional conferences instead.

Go to 20 , two 10 team divisions playing round robin will be fine 

24 teams can have 6 divisions and a semi final and work fine 

I think 16 is fine if the ncaa gets out of the way for some creativity, 4 4 team divisions that have a semi final 

 

Edited by BigHornedLurker
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The Hot Dog Buffet

The Hot Dog Buffet 1314

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13 minutes ago, Dnaguy said:

Will teams even want to make the CCG if you already have 1 loss?

With an expanded playoff, a 1 loss three way tie would kind of favor the team that doesn’t have to play. Sure they have a chance at a bye, but they would almost certainly make the playoffs and wouldn’t risk getting a second loss & miss out.

Seeding is going to make a big difference in a 12 team playoff, and I'd imagine a conference championship with only one loss would put you in pretty good position to get a first round bye.

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hook me

hook me 2163

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2 hours ago, Mitch Cumsteen said:

1. Fuck Tech. We need to beat their ass regardless of whether a conference championship is on the line. They deserve our best shot and to get their ass handed to them.

2. I just want to win the conference on the way out. Period. End of story.

3. All things being equal, it would be nice to play Oklahoma State and go out with scoreboard on everybody.

4. Beating OU in the championship game and redeeming the RRS loss would probably be the best case scenario for the making the playoffs. I'm sure a bunch of wacky shit will happen the last two weeks of the season because college football, but if it comes down to Texas and Oregon, both with similar records and redemption wins, maybe the Bama game (and hopefully a Tech beatdown vs a common opponent) puts us in over them?

This is exactly where I'm at. OSU for scoreboard or OU for CFP potential are both fine with me, but beating TTU by 20+ this week would be a really nice way to end our dealings with that particular university.

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hook me

hook me 2163

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, &#x27;stache said:

This. I don't get the consternation. All conferences are going to this divisionless model with no scheduling consistency. It's going to be like this pretty much every year. With the four major conferences all doing this, one or more, maybe even all, will have dozens of last week scenarios. This year's Big 12 race is actually relatively straight forward as long at UT beats a terrible Tech team on Friday.

I think the consternation coming from fans is mainly the fact that the conference should have been able to have a little foresight & worded their tie-breakers better so that they didn't need a clarification in week 11 & need to send out statements outlining the possible scenarios before the last week of the season. 

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Huckleberry

Huckleberry 34655

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1 hour ago, TrashMaster G said:

I'm impressed that someone at the B12 office only took until Monday to figure out that 2 to the 7th power is 128.

Exactly. That was why I said there were 4,096 possible scenarios before this past weekend's games. Pretty embarrassing that Bohls doesn't know what that statement meant. 

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BigHornedLurker

BigHornedLurker 2176

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4 minutes ago, hook me said:

I think the consternation coming from fans is mainly the fact that the conference should have been able to have a little foresight & worded their tie-breakers better so that they didn't need a clarification in week 11 & need to send out statements outlining the possible scenarios before the last week of the season. 

Dumb And Dumber GIF

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bschoolprof

bschoolprof 6342

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Posted
31 minutes ago, WBT said:

 

It's almost as if 16 teams is too many when trying to determine a champion when limited to a 9 game schedule.  Someone should think of trying smaller regional conferences instead.

Maybe have smaller regional divisions, the winner of which goes to the playoffs, plus a few wildcards.  One could call them the NFC east or the NL central or something like that. Radical idea, I know.

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Yesh

Yesh 962

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Posted (edited)
11 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

Has anyone actually come up with a scenario where Texas can’t get in title game? I feel like that hasn’t been explained yet.
 

Texas loses, OU wins, OSU wins, KSU loses? 

In that scenario, it isn't clear which of these is correct.

 

A. No head to head, go to next highest common opponent (ISU), Texas and OU have wins, OSU has a loss, therefore Texas and OU in to the championship with OU the #1 seed due to head to head.

B. No head to head, go to next highest common opponent (ISU), Texas and OU have wins, OSU has a loss, then to break Texas and OU use head to head, which makes OU #1 seed, then restart the tiebreaker between Texas and OSU, go to highest common opponent (OU), OSU has a win, Texas a loss, therefore OSU is #2 seed.

 

Scenario B is what Alex Loeb has stated, and it isn't clear whether he got that from the Big 12 or is just assuming.  Scenario A makes a lot more sense.

 

 

Edit: There is a Scenario C (bolded is what is different from Scenario B)

C. No head to head, go to next highest common opponent (ISU), Texas and OU have wins, OSU has a loss, then to break Texas and OU use head to head, which makes OU #1 seed, then restart the tiebreaker between Texas and OSU, go to NEXT highest common opponent (Kansas), OSU has a loss, Texas a win, therefore Texas is #2 seed.

 

Edited by Yesh
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Valmy77

Valmy77 13626

Posted
Posted (edited)
11 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

Has anyone actually come up with a scenario where Texas can’t get in title game? I feel like that hasn’t been explained yet.
 

Texas loses, OU wins, OSU wins, KSU loses? 

Yeah. I think the three way tie with OSU and OU is the only way.

Edit: Or not. But really who cares? Just fucking beat Tech.

Edited by Valmy77
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JBJ

JBJ 3827

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Posted
1 minute ago, Yesh said:

In that scenario, it isn't clear which of these is correct.

 

A. No head to head, go to next highest common opponent (ISU), Texas and OU have wins, OSU has a loss, therefore Texas and OU in to the championship with OU the #1 seed due to head to head.

B. No head to head, go to next highest common opponent (ISU), Texas and OU have wins, OSU has a loss, then to break Texas and OU use head to head, which makes OU #1 seed, then restart the tiebreaker between Texas and OSU, go to highest common opponent (OU), OSU has a win, Texas a loss, therefore OSU is #2 seed.

 

Scenario B is what Alex Loeb has stated, and it isn't clear whether he got that from the Big 12 or is just assuming.  Scenario A makes a lot more sense.

Scenario B honestly makes no sense.  It'd be extremely awkward to win the tiebreaker the first time around only to lose it later for the same reason there was a tie to begin with.

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ultimaton

ultimaton 2985

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Posted

To me it just seems like a missed opportunity for the Big 12 to create some interest in the entire slate of games this weekend. Supposedly there are scenarios where the UCF/Houston game can have an effect on who is going to Arlington. Tell me what those scenarios are and who to root and I'll probably tune in on Saturday. But as it is, I'm not watching that dogshit. Just poor leadership from the league office. 

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BigHornedLurker

BigHornedLurker 2176

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Posted
4 minutes ago, ultimaton said:

To me it just seems like a missed opportunity for the Big 12 to create some interest in the entire slate of games this weekend. Supposedly there are scenarios where the UCF/Houston game can have an effect on who is going to Arlington. Tell me what those scenarios are and who to root and I'll probably tune in on Saturday. But as it is, I'm not watching that dogshit. Just poor leadership from the league office. 

When you say things like it just make me realize the conference is not just malficient , it's also incompetent 

 

What losing Texas does to a mf 

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JBJ

JBJ 3827

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Posted

It's easier to see the flaw when you draw that Scenario B up like this:

A > B > C > A : Tie

A > D, C > D, B < D : Common opponent

C > A > D :  Sub tie breaker head-to-head

A > B > C > A : Next tiebreaker is same as tie scenario.

C > B : Seeding

-----

Vs Scenario A

A > B > C > A : Tie

A > D, C > D, B < D : Common opponent

C > A > D :  Seeding

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Valmy77

Valmy77 13626

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, HRSchenker said:

Just wait until Big 12 officials discover the hanging chads on the championship game ballot. We may need the Supreme Court to figure out who gets to play in the title game.

Sounds like a problem for a team that won't have a 8-1 Conference record. So, not Texas.

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BabaYaga

BabaYaga 15625

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Posted
1 hour ago, Captain Ron said:

It's because they kept losing count.

"Ok, trying again!!! Be quiet this time!!!"

"Two" (press 2 on calculator)

"Times" (presses X on calculator)

"Two" (press 2 on calculator)

"Times" (presses X on calculator)

"Two" (press 2 on calculator)

"Times" (presses X on calculator)

"Two" (press 2 on calculator)

(someone coughs loudly)

"Wait, was that 3 or 4 times? Do I count the first 2 I entered? CRAP!!!"

"STARTING OVER!!!"

boobies-calculator.gif

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