The Home Stretch - Big 12 Championship Scenarios

[bigcigar 1161]

…

Edited November 5, 2023 by bigcigar

[Tonesky 917]

1 hour ago, TxTower said:

So win out and we get another shot at Jawga in the Sugar Bowl?

I think SB is a championship semi-final. If we win out (without unlikely help that puts in the championship bracket), it’s cotton, Peach, or Fiesta. 

[Vertigo 20267]

Texas/Ok State would be very very favorable for Texas. I think that is a bad matchup for Ok State this year since they are so run heavy.

[Pato del Muerto 52342]

8 minutes ago, Tonesky said:

I think SB is a championship semi-final. If we win out (without unlikely help that puts in the championship bracket), it’s cotton, Peach, or Fiesta. 

Help may seem unlikely, but there’s about 15 games that would help and it only takes 1 in many cases. Otherwise, make a 15 game parlay and get some free money. 

[YGIFS 19449]

I know we're technically a possibility for the Peach Bowl, but they're gonna spend a pick on us if we don't make the CFP.  It'd be Cotton or Fiesta.  Peach takes ACC/UND/SEC team.  

Win out-CFP at best as #4 (assuming Big XII title).  Worst case-Cotton or Fiesta

Drop one to either ISU or Big XII title game, maybe still Cotton or Fiesta as at-large.  Not sure what happens after that since even with their last chance to pick us, even the Alamo Bowl would be like, "Nah dog, we're good..." 

PopTarts would obviously be happy to take a 10-2/11-2 Texas team, but we'll spending a lot more time in SEC country next season so lotta fans may just opt to not go and wait to play @Florida or one of the Sunshine State's 19 bowl games.  

Edited November 5, 2023 by YGIFS

[nbmishoid 940]

1 hour ago, fellside said:

Oregon could lose to USC or Oregon State.

Washington could lose to Washington State or Utah. Feasibly. Then you just hope the higher ranked team loses the Pac 12 championship.

Not gonna happen.   UW/UO will trump UT

[BigHornedLurker 1894]

43 minutes ago, Hard Times said:

I know we all hate to see Blowu win, but honestly it would have been better if they had won yesterday. If Texas loses another it's almost now way. If Blowu had won yesterday we likely have the SOS over okie lite and head to head over the kansas teams and it's a rematch in Dallas for the second time.

No , this is how OU keeps falling backwards into shit .

 

Never root for OU, see 2008 

[Pancho 44475]

CFP playoff predictor has us at 39% today and that’s 5th.

Alabama is at 41%

[shadetree 66]

I think you are going to be surprised when the committee puts Bama ahead of us this week.

This is going to happen for sure.

[CfRhTxStBobcats 600]

1 hour ago, A-Tex Devil said:

Yeah - we just need FSU to lose and if we win out I think we are in.  The Bama win gets us in over any 1 loss non-conference champ.  Period.  

I know most of us are putting the cart before the horse, but if we're lucky enough to win out I think the best chance is FSU dropping the ACC championship game. I haven't followed the ACC at all so I have no idea who the opponent will be. Do the fighting Butter Teeth have a chance? I don't see Oregon losing again and I'm afraid if Bama takes out GA we're gonna be sitting in that 5th chair.

[A-Tex Devil 2445]

1 hour ago, Dbeasy said:

Alabama could conceivably pass Texas, with a win over LSU and against undefeated Georgia. I originally didn’t think that but our close games and Okla St Big 12 game, combined with them winning now more impressively could cause problems. With undefeated M/OSU, Washington, FSU, and Georgia/Bama, it’s looking tough to get in to the playoff. 

And if we win out and that happens we will jump Georgia. I agree someone needs to lose though.  Odds are someone will (including us, unfortunately).  

[David Dennison 18656]

Too bad it's not next year.

[Rickylovesweed 14155]

1 hour ago, Hard Times said:

I know we all hate to see Blowu win, but honestly it would have been better if they had won yesterday. If Texas loses another it's almost now way. If Blowu had won yesterday we likely have the SOS over okie lite and head to head over the kansas teams and it's a rematch in Dallas for the second time.

1) I don't think it's a guarantee OU runs the table with the way they are playing. BYU is a much better team at home and WV is decent. 

2) If we can't beat teams that are 4-5, 5-4, and 4-5 then we have nobody to blame but ourselves. We have 3 mediocre to bad teams still left on the schedule. 

[MrBig 5289]

5 minutes ago, A-Tex Devil said:

And if we win out and that happens we will jump Georgia. I agree someone needs to lose though.  Odds are someone will (including us, unfortunately).  

There is no way we jump Georgia even if Alabama wins out. Georgia will be labeled the “better 1-loss team” because they lost to the SEC champs vs our one loss to an OU team that doesn’t even make the Big 12 Title Game. Beating Alabama was huge but losing to a shitty OU team hurts us more in the eyes of the CFP committee. 

[TrashMaster G 17388]

3 hours ago, oSuJeff97 said:

I was actually bummed when the schedule came out this year and we didn’t get to play y’all one more time so us playing each other in the Big 12 title game would be pretty awesome.

Yeah, I'd be pretty stoked at playing for a conference championship knowing the refs are on my side, too!

[Rickylovesweed 14155]

I'm calling a big upset this weekend. Oklahoma State @ UCF. 

UCF is a flawed team but they can score points with Plumlee at QB. An emotional letdown for Oklahoma State too. 

[CastHorn 794]

Man, if we can make it to the show, we’re taking it. A whole month to get healthy and Sark in the lab cooking up some wizardry concepts. 

[Not a cat 5619]

So if Washington, Ohio st, FSU, bama and Texas win out, who goes?  Obviously the three undefeated, but I have a feeling that bama gets in ahead of us.  Early season loss, playing better now, SEC champ, yada yada. 

I'm not saying that's right just that will be the language the committee uses as they fuck us- see 2008 (albeit absent a conference championship in 2008, but I can still see it happening).  Will be interesting if Michigan wins out instead- that'll be 3 blue bloods fighting for 2 spots, and one has pissed off a lot of people lately.

[The_Great_Hornsby 3328]

1 hour ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Help may seem unlikely, but there’s about 15 games that would help and it only takes 1 in many cases. Otherwise, make a 15 game parlay and get some free money. 

This. So many people are retarded and think every team is going to win out and we will have a historical year with 4 undefeated P5 champs. Not happening. 

[orange dream 1241]

There’s lots of words in this thread but only one universal truth…

NEVER ROOT FOR THE DIRT BURGLARS!!!

[A-Tex Devil 2445]

36 minutes ago, MrBig said:

There is no way we jump Georgia even if Alabama wins out. Georgia will be labeled the “better 1-loss team” because they lost to the SEC champs vs our one loss to an OU team that doesn’t even make the Big 12 Title Game. Beating Alabama was huge but losing to a shitty OU team hurts us more in the eyes of the CFP committee. 

Yeah, totally disagree here.  Have they ever taken a 1 loss non-conference champ over a 1 loss conference champ?  I don’t think so   Closest is when Georgia got 5 and OSU 6 in 2018 but who gives a shit about 5 and 6.  

We just need to win out so we can have the debate. And root for chaos everywhere else so there is no debate.  

Edited November 5, 2023 by A-Tex Devil

[Pancho 44475]

11 minutes ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

This. So many people are retarded and think every team is going to win out and we will have a historical year with 4 undefeated P5 champs. Not happening. 

Who is thinking that? 

It’s also dumb to just expect that Texas is “automatically in” if we just win out and win the Big 12. That is equally as dumb. What is even more dumb is not recognizing that we may do our part and still get left out because of other situations. This fanbase needs to be prepared for that just as much as some are prepared for us to win out and get our first bid. That’s all.

 

 

 

[Acropora 856]

Honestly, cfp works itself out if we win out.  And finishing with 5 more wins would be a huge step forward to finish this out.

Never cheer for ou.  Maybe if they play Aggy but better to cheer for a meteor.  Fuck those guys.

Right now, we are winning ugly, which means we likely drop one of the last three.  Hopefully we'll get healthy and get back up early season bama form.  Catalon and Ewers getting back healthy will help a great deal.  

 

 

Edited November 5, 2023 by Acropora
Eh

[USNALonghorn 5024]

4 minutes ago, Acropora said:

Hopefully we'll get healthy and get back up early season bama form.  Catalon and Ewers getting back healthy will help a great deal.  

This. Until we get Ewers back and our secondary is 100%, all of this CFP scenario talk is just day dreaming out loud.

[Gut Wagon 8052]

If we lose again before a bowl, to me it will be a wasted season. I'm basing that on where we sat the day after beating Bama. We obviously had the talent to run the table from there, so losing against anyone still left on the schedule would flat out be failure. We've already used whatever mulligan we might have had. Losing to OU looks worse by the week. 

[utexas8 1433]

When is catalon expected back?

[The_Great_Hornsby 3328]

1 minute ago, Pancho said:

Who is thinking that? 

It’s also dumb to just expect that Texas is “automatically in” if we just win out and win the Big 12. That is equally as dumb. What is even more dumb is not recognizing that we may do our part and still get left out because of other situations. This fanbase needs to be prepared for that just as much as some are prepared for us to win out and get our first bid. That’s all.

 

 

 

I can think of a variety of highly plausible scenarios in which Texas gets in guaranteed:

1) Florida State loses to either Miami/Florida/ACC finalist (ACC misses playoff)

2) Oregon beats Washington and Oregon drops either a game to OSU or USC (PAC misses playoff)

3) Georgia loses to Bama and Bama loses to Auburn or Kentucky prior to that result (SEC misses playoff)

Less likely but plausible scenarios:

4) Bama beats Georgia, Texas gets the nod over Bama by virtue of a H2H road win (assuming Washington wins out, SEC misses palyoff)

5) Bama beats Georgia, Texas gets the nod over a 1 loss Pac 12 Champ Oregon by virtue of a H2H road win against the SEC champ (PAC misses playoff)

Very unlikely scenario:

6) Ohio St/Mich winner loses the Big 10 champ game to Iowa (lol) (Big 10 misses playoff)

 

Any of those first 3 are reasonably likely to occur. Yall have to stop panicking. Let's just focus on winning our games so that these scenarios matter. 

[fellside 1076]

2 minutes ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

I can think of a variety of highly plausible scenarios in which Texas gets in guaranteed:

1) Florida State loses to either Miami/Florida/ACC finalist (ACC misses playoff)

2) Oregon beats Washington and Oregon drops either a game to OSU or USC (PAC misses playoff)

3) Georgia loses to Bama and Bama loses to Auburn or Kentucky prior to that result (SEC misses playoff)

Less likely but plausible scenarios:

4) Bama beats Georgia, Texas gets the nod over Bama by virtue of a H2H road win (assuming Washington wins out, SEC misses palyoff)

5) Bama beats Georgia, Texas gets the nod over a 1 loss Pac 12 Champ Oregon by virtue of a H2H road win against the SEC champ (PAC misses playoff)

Very unlikely scenario:

6) Ohio St/Mich winner loses the Big 10 champ game to Iowa (lol) (Big 10 misses playoff)

 

Any of those first 3 are reasonably likely to occur. Yall have to stop panicking. Let's just focus on winning our games so that these scenarios matter. 

This. People are giving way too much credence to the idea that everyone wins out. How many times have we seen four Power 5 undefeated conference champs?

Florida has two rivalry games and probably Louisville. The Pac 12 can still beat itself up.

Also, Oklahoma's demise has improved the quality of Texas's perceived strength of schedule. If it ends up 12-1 Texas, 10-3 Oklahoma State, 10-2 Oklahoma, 10-2 Kansas, 8-4 Kansas State, that's going to look just as impressive as whatever the Pac 12 has after they beat each other late.

[Dbeasy 14967]

4 minutes ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

I can think of a variety of highly plausible scenarios in which Texas gets in guaranteed:

1) Florida State loses to either Miami/Florida/ACC finalist (ACC misses playoff)

2) Oregon beats Washington and Oregon drops either a game to OSU or USC (PAC misses playoff)

3) Georgia loses to Bama and Bama loses to Auburn or Kentucky prior to that result (SEC misses playoff)

Less likely but plausible scenarios:

4) Bama beats Georgia, Texas gets the nod over Bama by virtue of a H2H road win (assuming Washington wins out, SEC misses palyoff)

5) Bama beats Georgia, Texas gets the nod over a 1 loss Pac 12 Champ Oregon by virtue of a H2H road win against the SEC champ (PAC misses playoff)

Very unlikely scenario:

6) Ohio St/Mich winner loses the Big 10 champ game to Iowa (lol) (Big 10 misses playoff)

 

Any of those first 3 are reasonably likely to occur. Yall have to stop panicking. Let's just focus on winning our games so that these scenarios matter. 

Nice list of scenarios. I just don’t happen to believe any of those first three are very likely at all. If I had to choose it would be USC over Oregon, but after seeing how bad USC looked on defense last night that seems a stretch too. 

[Bevo14 8274]

22 minutes ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

This. So many people are retarded and think every team is going to win out and we will have a historical year with 4 undefeated P5 champs. Not happening. 

 

8 minutes ago, Pancho said:

Who is thinking that? 

It’s also dumb to just expect that Texas is “automatically in” if we just win out and win the Big 12. That is equally as dumb. What is even more dumb is not recognizing that we may do our part and still get left out because of other situations. This fanbase needs to be prepared for that just as much as some are prepared for us to win out and get our first bid. That’s all.

 

 

 

Quite a few people here are thinking that. And the funny thing is there's been many seasons in the last decade where 4+ teams have been undefeated in week 11. Guess how many of those seasons produced 4 undefeated conference champions? 2020 is the only one if teams going 5-0 count. That's also the only scenario that definitively leaves us out. We're not getting left out for a fucking team we punked on the road. Basically the only other scenario where it gets dicey is a 1 loss Oregon team, because they're doing the OU "run it up on every shitty team we can" play. We would go over a 1 loss Big 10 champ or 1 loss FSU/Louisville.

Week 11 undefeated P5 teams:

2013: 5
2014: 2
2015: 5
2016: 4
2017: 4
2018: 3
2019: 7
2020: 8 (doesn't matter for obvious reasons tho)
2021: 2
2022: 4
2023: 5

[Nicole44 22027]

Damn, wish we had taken care of our own business and beat BlowU ugly. Oh well. I don’t think we are CFP ready. I’d like to believe we are but the signs have been evident all season long save the Bama game (one that was strenuously prepared for and scripted for the whole offseason) that we ain’t ready for that. We aren’t healthy either. Too many fucking injuries. I’d rather go to a Top Tier bowl and end it on a bowl win (even though Sark is like 2-5 in bowl games as a HC) and take that awesome momentum into the SEC. Jmo. We don’t control our own destiny here. 

[The_Great_Hornsby 3328]

2 minutes ago, Nicole44 said:

Damn, wish we had taken care of our own business and beat BlowU ugly. Oh well. I don’t think we are CFP ready. I’d like to believe we are but the signs have been evident all season long save the Bama game (one that was strenuously prepared for and scripted for the whole offseason) that we ain’t ready for that. We aren’t healthy either. Too many fucking injuries. I’d rather go to a Top Tier bowl and end it on a bowl win (even though Sark is like 2-5 in bowl games as a HC) and take that awesome momentum into the SEC. Jmo. We don’t control our own destiny here. 

You would rather not make the playoffs and have a shot at a national championship so we can win some fucking consolation prize bowl game and build some imaginary momentum for the SEC. That is the stupidest shit I have read all day. You know how you get ready for a 12 team playoff? You learn what it takes to win the 4 team playoff. JFC

[The_Great_Hornsby 3328]

7 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

Nice list of scenarios. I just don’t happen to believe any of those first three are very likely at all. If I had to choose it would be USC over Oregon, but after seeing how bad USC looked on defense last night that seems a stretch too. 

The odds that none of those first 3 scenarios comes to pass is under 50%. Each game itself is better than 50% of it going to the favored team, but taken as a whole and compounded, it would take a lot of bad luck for us to not be the beneficiary of any of those first 3 scenarios. 

[Mother mopar 3302]

Honestly, cfp works itself out if we win out.  And finishing with 5 more wins would be a huge step forward to finish this out.
Never cheer for ou.  Maybe if they play Aggy but better to cheer for a meteor.  Fuck those guys.
Right now, we are winning ugly, which means we likely drop one of the last three.  Hopefully we'll get healthy and get back up early season bama form.  Catalon and Ewers getting back healthy will help a great deal.  
 
 

Stick with the SPS corals, we are winning out

[Nicole44 22027]

4 minutes ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

You would rather not make the playoffs and have a shot at a national championship so we can win some fucking consolation prize bowl game and build some imaginary momentum for the SEC. That is the stupidest shit I have read all day. You know how you get ready for a 12 team playoff? You learn what it takes to win the 4 team playoff. JFC

We barely beat KState and u of H and you think we can be good enough to beat the other three teams in the CFP? Your post might be the most delusional I’ve read all day. We didn’t beat OU. Our loss to them looks worse and worse and even if we win out the likelihood of getting in the CFP isn’t great. Because we didn’t take care of business against an average OU team. Fuck off with that nonsense. If you’re going to call my posts out at least recognize you’re living in a pipe dream 

 

[South Austin 52144]

5 hours ago, 6th Street said:

Texas Tech passing attack in the final game could the be spoiler in all of this 

Regardless of whether we lose one of the next two games and blow our spot in the conference title game, we’ve already established that for our last regular season Big XII game, Tech will be gargling our balls on November 24.

[VaLonghorn99 340]

Through remaining shit 12 games, we just need to continue play with the at least 21 ahead attitude. The 12 will turn such blowouts in progress into close ugly wins but at least we win. 

[The_Great_Hornsby 3328]

1 minute ago, Nicole44 said:

We barely beat KState and u of H and you think we can be good enough to beat the other three teams in the CFP? Your post might be the most delusional I’ve read all day. We didn’t beat OU. Our loss to them looks worse and worse and even if we win out the likelihood of getting in the CFP isn’t great. Because we didn’t take care of business against an average OU team. Fuck off with that nonsense. If you’re going to call my posts out at least recognize you’re living in a pipe dream 

 

Everyone is vulnerable this year and has close games where they looked like shit. Stop being a pussy. 

[utexas8 1433]

Out of our 3 remaining rank them from toughest to least.

I’ll admit, I haven’t watched much big xii this year
So I’m not sure.

[Nicole44 22027]

2 minutes ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

Everyone is vulnerable this year and has close games where they looked like shit. Stop being a pussy. 

 

[Pancho 44475]

11 minutes ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

I can think of a variety of highly plausible scenarios in which Texas gets in guaranteed:

1) Florida State loses to either Miami/Florida/ACC finalist (ACC misses playoff)

2) Oregon beats Washington and Oregon drops either a game to OSU or USC (PAC misses playoff)

3) Georgia loses to Bama and Bama loses to Auburn or Kentucky prior to that result (SEC misses playoff)

Less likely but plausible scenarios:

4) Bama beats Georgia, Texas gets the nod over Bama by virtue of a H2H road win (assuming Washington wins out, SEC misses palyoff)

5) Bama beats Georgia, Texas gets the nod over a 1 loss Pac 12 Champ Oregon by virtue of a H2H road win against the SEC champ (PAC misses playoff)

Very unlikely scenario:

6) Ohio St/Mich winner loses the Big 10 champ game to Iowa (lol) (Big 10 misses playoff)

 

Any of those first 3 are reasonably likely to occur. Yall have to stop panicking. Let's just focus on winning our games so that these scenarios matter. 

First off, no one is panicking. I want us in the CFP, but I realize that window is closing and we are probablyheaded to the Cotton Bowl (which is still good for this season but would be disappointing overall)

 

While something being plausible means it’s believable, it sometimes doesn’t account for how probable it is. You (and others) keep confusing probability and possibility. Your first scenarios, yes, it is possible some (if not all) of that happens. Based on the season so far, the probability is low that they happen but still greater than 0%. 

The only path (so far) that I see is Florida State losing to Louisville in the ACC title game. I just do not think they lose to Miami and the line is FSU -15 (although it’s possible, technically). It’s possible UF beats them as that game is in Gainesville and they would love nothing more than to ruin FSU’s dream season. So I agree with you that FSU losing along the way is probably our #1 bet both in terms of possibility and probability. 

Oregon—the only game I see them losing is Oregon State, but that game is at Oregon. Now, Wershington plays at Oregon State and that might be something to watch. I can see something where OSU plays out of their mind because they are being left behind; however, with what Wershington did to USC last night at USC makes me wonder if they are hitting their stride at the right time. 

Let’s be clear—Alabama isn’t losing to Kentucky or Auburn. Auburn is worse than aggy. I guess with that rivalry you *can* say Auburn would love nothing more than to ruin Alabama’s season. And Alabama will have the SEC West rapped up way before then. Of your scenarios, that might be #2 and not #3. 

We just need to keep winning and see what happens. What makes me angry about the CFP (always has) is it’s so, so subjective. The phrase “eye test” makes me cringe because that is the most subjective thing ever. 

 

TLDR: Yes, it’s possible for everything to work out but the probability of Texas getting to the CFP gets lower every weekend as long as those other teams keep winning. 

[Nicole44 22027]

3 minutes ago, utexas8 said:

Out of our 3 remaining rank them from toughest to least.

I’ll admit, I haven’t watched much big xii this year
So I’m not sure.

Iowa State (it’s at Iowa state and weather could be a factor)

Texas Tech - last time we face off against them and day after Turkey Day but we will be at home. But they will be as motivated as ever.

TCU- they are a hot mess right now. We should be able to beat them but we barely beat out UofH with Ewers playing the majority of that game. 

Edited November 5, 2023 by Nicole44

[Pancho 44475]

3 minutes ago, utexas8 said:

Out of our 3 remaining rank them from toughest to least.

I’ll admit, I haven’t watched much big xii this year
So I’m not sure.

@ Iowa State

Tech

TCU

[Slacks 6791]

4 hours ago, A-Tex Devil said:

I could see Houston beating Okie St because they (specifically their passing game) are a different team at home.  Doubt it, but possible.  They still likely get in though   

Houston defense has entered the chat. 

[oSuJeff97 3435]

1 hour ago, TrashMaster G said:

Yeah, I'd be pretty stoked at playing for a conference championship knowing the refs are on my side, too!

Pussies and losers whine about refs. 

[JGrayDBU 336]

We cannot claim ignorance or anything of the like, about the Rig 12's refereeing upcoming circus.  We must take all field goals available in the first half and build a 2-3 touchdown lead in the fourth quarter.  

 

We joined this awful conference and we are gonna lie in this bed of a conference until the gun sounds at the end of the season.  We have the talent, we have the coaching, except in the red zone, and we have the determination/motivation.  Let's go get it! 

[Not a cat 5619]

4 minutes ago, oSuJeff97 said:

Pussies and losers whine about refs. 

And also teams that don't benefit all the time from bullshit calls ...

[Pancho 44475]

The Cover 3 podcast made a case that Oklahoma State could lose at UCF this weekend, and I can see that. Coming off of an emotional win, you have to wonder where OSU’s head is at. 

The line is only -1

 

[Rickylovesweed 14155]

3 minutes ago, Pancho said:

The Cover 3 podcast made a case that Oklahoma State could lose at UCF this weekend, and I can see that. Coming off of an emotional win, you have to wonder where OSU’s head is at. 

The line is only -1

 

I said this above. 

UCF can score with Plumlee at QB. 

[Acropora 856]

31 minutes ago, Mother mopar said:

Stick with the SPS corals, we are winning out

I think you're the first to get my username in years.  Good to see another reefkeeper.  I'm in Hawaii about to dive amongst the coral.  

Back on topic, I think the number of teams that finish undefeated is almost always less than 2.  A 1 loss Texas will always get in.  We are the Jones's.  BOMC, biggest brand in football, whatever.  

Also, fuck OU, Aggy, LSU, Notre Dame and OU again.  We won, they lost  Such a great weekend!