The Home Stretch - Big 12 Championship Scenarios

[Huckleberry 32702]

(assumes Iowa State finishes off BYU)

Remaining Opponents:

Texas - @ISU, TTU
Oklahoma State - @HOU, BYU
Oklahoma - @BYU, TCU
Kansas State - @KU, ISU
Iowa State - UT, @KSU

Okay so let's say Texas wins out (yes, I know) and Kansas State also beats Iowa State at home after beating Kansas. Oklahoma and Oklahoma State win out. Then we have (assuming favorites win elsewhere):

Big 12 Tiebreakers:

So in the above scenario which assumes a lot of results let's go through the tiebreakers.

1. Does not apply. Oklahoma did not play Kansas State so per the rule we move to Step 2. Note that this is really stupid because Oklahoma State beat both of them but that's the rule as written.

2. West Virginia is not a common opponent as they did not play Kansas State. Iowa State at 5-4 is a common opponent. Texas Tech at 5-4 is not a common opponent (did not play OU or OSU). Kansas at 5-4 is a common opponent. Against Iowa State and Kansas, Oklahoma State went 1-1, Oklahoma went 1-1, Kansas State in our scenario goes 2-0 against those two teams in the next two weeks.

In this scenario we play Kansas State in the championship game because the Big 12's terribly written tiebreakers rip off Oklahoma State. I expect that if this scenario becomes a serious possibility heading into the last week we will see clarification from the Big 12 office on tiebreaker 1 if one team has beaten all other teams they're tied with.

Edited November 12, 2023 by Huckleberry

[UTexasFight 9380]

2 minutes ago, Captain Ron said:

Here are the common opponents, with the results that would end up with the multi-way tie at 2 losses - EXCEPT Texas, because who our loss to (to end up with a 2nd loss starts to matter - ISU or Tech), also note, that a loss to ISU would leave them in the mix for getting in the 2 loss tie breaker, which then changes a lot of this.

KU - Texas (L), OSU (L), OU (W), KSU (L)
ISU - OSU (W), OU (L), Texas (TBD), KSU (L)

WVU - OSU (L), OU (L)
Tech - KSU (L), Texas (TBD)
TCU - Texas (L), OU (L)
BYU - Texas (L), OU (L), OSU (L)

This is asked in relation to if Texas wins out and there is a OSU,OU,KSU 3 way tie at 2 losses. And it depends on who is higher KU or ISU:

(check my math)

KU finishes higher: OU is eliminated on tiebreaker 2 for losing to them. KSU-OSU played and OSU won - so OSU would finish #2

ISU finishes higher: OSU is eliminated on tiebreaker 2 for losing to them. KSU and OU haven't played, so then the question is: does Texas count as the first common opponent? If yes, then OU plays us, if not, then it would be KU and KSU would play us again.

 

 

this is too much.

someone is going to lose a game they shouldn’t that will make this a lot easier to sort out

always happens. Just like playing the “who makes the cfp” in mid November when you have 4-5 undefeated teams and a couple of 1 loss teams. 
It’ll  be down to 3 obvious teams and only 1 team with a legit argument they should have gotten the 4 seed when it’s all said and done

[Zeus 5950]

52 minutes ago, JGrayDBU said:

I think we have to entertain the thought of losing to Iowa State, unless they are using up all of their positive Karma right now.  They are up on BYU......31 to 7. in the FIRST HALF!!!

THE BYU!!!!????

[gmr548 16513]

Good enough for me.
Are ticket prices going to fall? Or only go up as this comes in to focus?
Struggling  on dropping $330 for end zone 2nd level right now…
when 14k tickets haven’t been distributed to the participating teams.
but those tickets appear to be around the corners so not exactly prime seats …but 15-20% of the total seats in the place hitting the market should bring prices for everything down some, no? 
…unless it’s Texas/ou…

Honestly I recommend watching the Big 12 CCG from home. Entry into Jerryworld was a mess in 2018, they could learn things from the Cotton Bowl it was so bad. Environment is extremely stale. Nothing to do after, you’re just stuck in parking lots in beautiful Arlington.

[D3zii 3642]

It’s crazy there still a good chance Texas and OU make it to Arlington. 

Texas takes care of business. We’re good 

The Chaos: 

OKST of course should be favored but after the UCF performance UofH isn’t a gimmie

KSTATE still has to go to Lawrence and has Iowa State 

Iowa State has Texas and K-state hardest out of the others. 

OU has an easier slate than those top 3 BYU and TCU

 

at this point idc who else makes it, I just hope we’re there to greet em, but after everything that happened, for OU and Texas to still be able to make it to Arlington is Pretty cool. 

[gmr548 16513]

It’s crazy there still a good chance Texas and OU make it to Arlington. 

Texas takes care of business. We’re good 
The Chaos: 
OKST of course should be favored but after the UCF performance UofH isn’t a gimmie
KSTATE still has to go to Lawrence and has Iowa State 
Iowa State has Texas and K-state hardest out of the others. 
OU has an easier slate than those top 3 BYU and TCU
 
at this point idc who else makes it, I just hope we’re there to greet em, but after everything that happened, for OU and Texas to still be able to make it to Arlington is Pretty cool. 

Fuck OU I hope they lose both of their remaining games

[immamac 42519]

6 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

Fuck OU I hope they lose both of their remaining games

OU looked like shit against WVU last night, they will drop another one. 

[BigHornedLurker 1893]

10 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

Fuck OU I hope they lose both of their remaining games

This is the way 

[Neonmoon 38127]

6 minutes ago, immamac said:

OU looked like shit against WVU last night, they will drop another one. 

Umm…no they didn’t 

[Richard Kimball 1492]

2 hours ago, D3zii said:

It’s crazy there still a good chance Texas and OU make it to Arlington. 

Texas takes care of business. We’re good 

The Chaos: 

OKST of course should be favored but after the UCF performance UofH isn’t a gimmie

KSTATE still has to go to Lawrence and has Iowa State 

Iowa State has Texas and K-state hardest out of the others. 

OU has an easier slate than those top 3 BYU and TCU

 

at this point idc who else makes it, I just hope we’re there to greet em, but after everything that happened, for OU and Texas to still be able to make it to Arlington is Pretty cool. 

You left out the most important part. Fuck Oklahoma. 

[USNALonghorn 5024]

4 hours ago, immamac said:

OU looked like shit against WVU last night, they will drop another one. 

I sure hope we “look like shit” against ISU this weekend.

[mdmost 42865]

4 hours ago, immamac said:

OU looked like shit against WVU last night, they will drop another one. 

What multiverse were you in last night?

[TrashMaster G 17388]

4 hours ago, immamac said:

OU looked like shit against WVU last night, they will drop another one. 

Dude, lay off the weed.

['stache 21774]

On 11/11/2023 at 11:21 PM, WBT said:

What isn't clear to me is what if it's a 3-way tie among KSU, OU, and OSU for 2nd?  You would think OSU would be in from beating the other two but by reading the rules, it sounds like H2H wouldn't factor in because KSU didn't play OU.  But  that makes no fucking sense.

It's the dumbest fucking scenario and probably the most likely to occur (or we'll just fold against UH and remove ourselves from the conversation). In typical OSU fashion, the rule will change a year too late to save us. It would be pretty easy to write into the rule that if any one of the tied teams has played and defeated the other tied teams they win the tie breaker. 

 

[Pato del Muerto 52342]

5 minutes ago, 'stache said:

It's the dumbest fucking scenario and probably the most likely to occur (or we'll just fold against UH and remove ourselves from the conversation). In typical OSU fashion, the rule will change a year too late to save us. It would be pretty easy to write into the rule that if any one of the tied teams has played and defeated the other tied teams they win the tie breaker. 

 

One would hope that you aren’t expecting sympathy over shitty tiebreaker rules on a Texas board.  Maybe empathy. 

[The Original Greaser Bob 2799]

15 hours ago, TrashMaster G said:

Dude, lay off the weed.

Dude hates their uniforms and wants them to lose. 

You guys over-analize.

[LonghornSean 3942]

This link was posted in that other thread, and it's a useful link so deserves to be posted in this thread.

https://bball.notnothing.net/big12.php?sport=fb

 

Of course as he says on the site, much of the language is ambiguous so the results can't be taken as gospel. What does seem to be the case is that if we lose to ISU, it's very unlikely that tiebreakers will fall in our favor to make it to Arlington.

[Js1 85110]

2 minutes ago, LonghornSean said:

This link was posted in that other thread, and it's a useful link so deserves to be posted in this thread.

https://bball.notnothing.net/big12.php?sport=fb

 

Of course as he says on the site, much of the language is ambiguous so the results can't be taken as gospel. What does seem to be the case is that if we lose to ISU, it's very unlikely that tiebreakers will fall in our favor to make it to Arlington.

So... 

Win and in.  

[Pokoloco 1272]

Just win out Texas. For the love of Christ, just win out.

[The Hot Dog Buffet 1291]

On 11/11/2023 at 5:29 PM, Rickylovesweed said:

I thought Oklahoma State would lose this game but being down 45-3 to a 4-5 team has to be one of the worst performances so far this year. 

Only scoring 3 points against this UCF defense is bad. 

It is one of the worst performances of the year, but it's also not OSU's worst performance of the year.

[satyanash 14281]

On 11/12/2023 at 12:31 AM, Huckleberry said:

1. Does not apply. Oklahoma did not play Kansas State so per the rule we move to Step 2. Note that this is really stupid because Oklahoma State beat both of them but that's the rule as written.

On 11/13/2023 at 12:25 PM, 'stache said:

It's the dumbest fucking scenario and probably the most likely to occur (or we'll just fold against UH and remove ourselves from the conversation). In typical OSU fashion, the rule will change a year too late to save us. It would be pretty easy to write into the rule that if any one of the tied teams has played and defeated the other tied teams they win the tie breaker.

Looks like the Big 12 has hastily changed the rule, and is claiming it's a "restating of intent" instead of a change (since a rule change would have to be voted on by the ADs).

 

[Pato del Muerto 52342]

Lol, but good. If that missing game wouldn’t change the tiebreaker with either result, it shouldn’t be a reason to move past that portion. 
 

that puts us back at tx vs osu if both win out, yes?

Edited November 15, 2023 by Pato del Muerto

[The_Great_Hornsby 3329]

6 hours ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Lol, but good. If that missing game wouldn’t change the tiebreaker with either result, it shouldn’t be a reason to move past that portion. 
 

that puts us back at tx vs osu if both win out, yes?

Corrrect, and I would much prefer OSU than a revenge match with KSU. 

[Longboard Horn 40143]

Please get in Okie State. We need that game to avenge last year's loss and have eternal scoreboard on everyone!

[LTtxfan 48979]

Changing rules in middle of the season 😂😂

 

Kstate unhappy because now a 3way tie with blOU and okie lite goes to okie lite 😋

 

[hornbri 1375]

It feels like this story isn’t over. Lawyers are going to be involved. 

[The_Great_Hornsby 3329]

1 minute ago, hornbri said:

It feels like this story isn’t over. Lawyers are going to be involved. 

Think about the sports betting angle too... This is bigger than just the athletic departments as well. 

[Longboard Horn 40143]

1 minute ago, hornbri said:

It feels like this story isn’t over. Lawyers are going to be involved. 

Fuck it, cancel the championship game and give us the trophy. Problem solved!

[GreenspointTexas 9567]

15 minutes ago, Longboard Horn said:

Please get in Okie State. We need that game to avenge last year's loss and have eternal scoreboard on everyone!

This

['stache 21774]

The intent was always head to head, the rule isn’t changing from one thing to another, it was a nonsense sentence that meant nothing. What’s embarrassing is that someone wrote that, put it in the rules, and nobody noticed until it mattered. As though tiebreakers in a non round robin wouldn’t come up like every single year going forward. Maybe fucking read it before putting it on the website?

[Js1 85110]

8 minutes ago, 'stache said:

What’s embarrassing is that someone wrote that, put it in the rules, and nobody noticed until it mattered

Pretty typical for cracker jack conference leadership. Big 12 has never figured out that H2H should trump all when it comes to tiebreakers (see: 2008 Texas/OU) 

[Skipper 6103]

9 minutes ago, 'stache said:

The intent was always head to head, the rule isn’t changing from one thing to another, it was a nonsense sentence that meant nothing. What’s embarrassing is that someone wrote that, put it in the rules, and nobody noticed until it mattered. As though tiebreakers in a non round robin wouldn’t come up like every single year going forward. Maybe fucking read it before putting it on the website?

Agreed.  Embarrassing for the conference something that confusing managed to get published.  But this is the Big 12 we are talking about.  Completely fitting.  Amateur hour. As long as it ends up fucking someone that is not Texas (preferably OU), then great.

[Horn Dogg 3808]

Ha ha, I’m so glad we’re leaving this shitty conference behind.  Hoping we just win out and let the other loser schools fight for the scraps.

Edited November 15, 2023 by Horn Dogg

[Js1 85110]

32 minutes ago, GreenspointTexas said:

This

Of course, we can't discount fuckery, but UCF gave us a game plan on OSU that we can execute pretty well up front.  Our secondary scares the shit out of me, but absolutely shutting down their run game is our strength. UCF held Gordon to 25 yards on 12 carries and the team to 52 yards on 25 carries). Caused Bowman to have to throw it 40 times and threw 3 picks. 

[Treefidy 1463]

if the season finishes out like this, OSU getting in is the right outcome.  

Even though they have by far the worst resume of the 3, they beat both of them and have the same (conference) record

Good to finally be gettiing out of this poorly run shitshow

[derpyhorndog 2554]

Hopefully this is clarified in the final language of the “restatement of intent,” but I read some ambiguity in the following language of McMurphy’s tweet: “if multiple Big 12 teams are tied & 1 team holds wins vs. other teams in tiebreaker, then that team wins tiebreaker”

Everyone in this thread seems to be assuming that is making the changes to avoid the illogical OSU leave-out in the three way tie scenario with OU and KSU. That is, the bolded language above would be more clearly stated as “vs. all other teams in tiebreaker, after accounting for (excluding) any team in tiebreaker that was selected for the CCG under earlier application of the tiebreaker rules.” Also meaning that, in the four-way-tie scenario with UT, OSU, OU and KSU, the first team would still be selected by the Step 2 rule (since UT has not played OSU), and Step 1 would kick in afterwards to determine the second team only if UT were the somehow the first team selected — since only then would one team (OSU) have played every team then remaining in tiebreak.    

The ambiguity I see in the McMurphy language is that it could be read to mean that the Step 1 rule applies if any tiebreaker team holds wins over other teams (but not necessarily all other teams) in tiebreaker. If that’s the case, I would read it to mean Step 1 would apply from the jump even in the four-way-tie scenario with UT, OSU, OU and KSU. That is, in Step 1, OSU is the first team selected since it is the only one that survives H2H knockouts: UT is knocked out by OU, and OU/KSU are knocked out by OSU. Then the second team is selected out of UT, OU and KSU by running it back to the top — in Step 1 this round, since OU and KSU didn’t play one another, the only team knocked out is UT (by OU). So OU and KSU then go on to determine their tiebreak under Step 2. 

Welcome anyone sanity checking me on that ambiguity/read. And to be clear, I doubt that’s where this should or will land. It would be illogical if the intent of the “restatement of intent” is to have H2Hs play out that way. Not to mention the fact that it would indisputably be a drastic change to the rules amounting to “Step 1 always applies, even if just partially.” But at this point nothing the B12 does surprises me. 

[kevwun 15652]

58 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Of course, we can't discount fuckery, but UCF gave us a game plan on OSU that we can execute pretty well up front.  Our secondary scares the shit out of me, but absolutely shutting down their run game is our strength. UCF held Gordon to 25 yards on 12 carries and the team to 52 yards on 25 carries). Caused Bowman to have to throw it 40 times and threw 3 picks. 

They came out swinging too taking shots down the field.  Okie St was down by 7 before they knew what happened.

[Matagorda 118]

On 11/12/2023 at 3:36 PM, gmr548 said:

Fuck OU I hope they lose both of their remaining games

Always the right answer.  I abhor the brotherhood bullshit.

[DaysOff 7853]

I don't care who we play; I just want in.

['stache 21774]

12 minutes ago, DaysOff said:

I don't care who we play; I just want in.

Just beat ISU, please and thank you.

[Horndog 2218]

2 hours ago, Js1 said:

Pretty typical for cracker jack conference leadership. Big 12 has never figured out that H2H should trump all when it comes to tiebreakers (see: 2008 Texas/OU) 

Captain Obvious here to point out that 2008 wasn't a 2- way tie. There were 3 teams tied and each was 1 and 1 against the others. 

[Js1 85110]

1 minute ago, Horndog said:

Captain Obvious here to point out that 2008 wasn't a 2- way tie. There were 3 teams tied and each was 1 and 1 against the others. 

Obviously, thank you. Going with “the highest ranked BCS team” that had a huge human element attached to it was idiotic and we all know it. If you wanted to use rankings just to eliminate the lowest ranked of the 3 and then go H2H, that would have actually made sense. 

[bullet 1596]

On 11/15/2023 at 10:43 AM, derpyhorndog said:

Hopefully this is clarified in the final language of the “restatement of intent,” but I read some ambiguity in the following language of McMurphy’s tweet: “if multiple Big 12 teams are tied & 1 team holds wins vs. other teams in tiebreaker, then that team wins tiebreaker”

Everyone in this thread seems to be assuming that is making the changes to avoid the illogical OSU leave-out in the three way tie scenario with OU and KSU. That is, the bolded language above would be more clearly stated as “vs. all other teams in tiebreaker, after accounting for (excluding) any team in tiebreaker that was selected for the CCG under earlier application of the tiebreaker rules.” Also meaning that, in the four-way-tie scenario with UT, OSU, OU and KSU, the first team would still be selected by the Step 2 rule (since UT has not played OSU), and Step 1 would kick in afterwards to determine the second team only if UT were the somehow the first team selected — since only then would one team (OSU) have played every team then remaining in tiebreak.    

The ambiguity I see in the McMurphy language is that it could be read to mean that the Step 1 rule applies if any tiebreaker team holds wins over other teams (but not necessarily all other teams) in tiebreaker. If that’s the case, I would read it to mean Step 1 would apply from the jump even in the four-way-tie scenario with UT, OSU, OU and KSU. That is, in Step 1, OSU is the first team selected since it is the only one that survives H2H knockouts: UT is knocked out by OU, and OU/KSU are knocked out by OSU. Then the second team is selected out of UT, OU and KSU by running it back to the top — in Step 1 this round, since OU and KSU didn’t play one another, the only team knocked out is UT (by OU). So OU and KSU then go on to determine their tiebreak under Step 2. 

Welcome anyone sanity checking me on that ambiguity/read. And to be clear, I doubt that’s where this should or will land. It would be illogical if the intent of the “restatement of intent” is to have H2Hs play out that way. Not to mention the fact that it would indisputably be a drastic change to the rules amounting to “Step 1 always applies, even if just partially.” But at this point nothing the B12 does surprises me. 

The stupidity of 14-18 team conferences and no divisions.

['stache 21774]

4 minutes ago, bullet said:

The stupidity of 14-18 team conferences and no divisions.

Yup, it's going to be an issue every year going forward including for the SEC/BIG. The second a blueblood losses a tiebreaker to a nonblueblood shit's gonna go wild.

[Frank Drebin 5621]

On 11/15/2023 at 8:48 AM, Js1 said:

Of course, we can't discount fuckery, but UCF gave us a game plan on OSU that we can execute pretty well up front.  Our secondary scares the shit out of me, but absolutely shutting down their run game is our strength. UCF held Gordon to 25 yards on 12 carries and the team to 52 yards on 25 carries). Caused Bowman to have to throw it 40 times and threw 3 picks. 

Alan Bowman is terrible.  If we get in and Okie State and we cannot beat them, that means Sark won't ever make it here.

Also, Gordon is getting beaten up.  They have been overusing him after barely using him the first handful of games.

[MuellerHorn 4195]

On 11/12/2023 at 3:43 PM, immamac said:

OU looked like shit against WVU last night, they will drop another one. 

They won by 39...

NVM, already addressed.

Edited November 16, 2023 by MuellerHorn

[MuellerHorn 4195]

13 minutes ago, 'stache said:

Yup, it's going to be an issue every year going forward including for the SEC/BIG. The second a blueblood losses a tiebreaker to a nonblueblood shit's gonna go wild.

The only thing that makes it "safer" is the CFP expansion to 12 teams. However, I'm sure it'll still come into play in terms of who gets a first-round bye vs. not because one team played in, and won, their conference championship game and the other didn't get the opportunity.

[markstanco 12507]

On 11/12/2023 at 8:20 PM, TrashMaster G said:

Dude, lay off the weed.

@MrRogue Please stop sending our fearless leader free weed. 

['stache 21774]

Am I right that you beating ISU clinches a spot in the CCG? I’m running tiebreakers and dont see a final week scenario that leaves you out. I might be missing something though.

[Pato del Muerto 52342]

7 minutes ago, 'stache said:

Am I right that you beating ISU clinches a spot in the CCG? I’m running tiebreakers and dont see a final week scenario that leaves you out. I might be missing something though.

If there was a 3 way tie at 7-2 between Texas, osu, and ou, how would that tiebreaker go?