The Home Stretch - Big 12 Championship Scenarios

[Texas Wahoo 3631]

My back of the envelope math:

1 Texas wins - in

2 Texas loses and OU loses - in

3 Texas loses, OU wins, KSU loses, OSU loses - in

4 All the other possibilities will take a while to think through  

 

[SaucyJack 3520]

10 minutes ago, USNALonghorn said:

So did we clinch?

Yes

[TrashMaster G 18094]

1 minute ago, utexas8 said:

 

He's wrong.

[utexas8 1706]

[TrashMaster G 18094]

1 minute ago, utexas8 said:

 

This. If we end up in a 3-way tie with OU and oSu, we are out.

[LonghornSean 4103]

Yeah I can’t see any scenario even if we lose to Tech where we don’t make it.

If it exists, someone please explain.

Edit: answered

 

Edited November 19, 2023 by LonghornSean

[Pato del Muerto 53504]

Just now, utexas8 said:

 

Thank you, if he is correct. 
 

also of note, I am surprised to see that tcu@ou is on Friday before our game. Not that I’d expect ou to lose that one, but it will be completed before we kickoff. 
 

the other two play on Saturday.  I expect ksu to handle isu at home. Unsure about osu hosting byu. Byu seems to be bad on the road but osu is a bit jeckyl and Hyde. 

[Surly Bevo 25748]

We just need to win and not leave it up to TCU, BYU or even KSU.

[The Ace of Aces 5377]

Beat the ever living fuck out of Texas Tech on principle. Make all scenarios irrelevant. 

[Jewish Wang 111]

4 minutes ago, TrashMaster G said:

He's wrong.

He also published an AAS article writing the same. Embarrassing. 

[TrashMaster G 18094]

1 minute ago, Jewish Wang said:

He also published an AAS article writing the same. Embarrassing. 

I await his retraction.

[Jewish Wang 111]

5 minutes ago, TrashMaster G said:

This. If we end up in a 3-way tie with OU and oSu, we are out.

I’m not saying you're wrong, but I don’t know how this is possible. 

Edited November 19, 2023 by Jewish Wang

[Valmy77 13626]

There is so much else riding on this game besides a trip to the title game: first 11 win season since 2009, chance for eternal scoreboard over Tech, staying in the CFP picture.

Just beat Tech. Fuck that world where we lose to Tech.

[Gucci_Suit 2828]

We’re playing the most mouthy team in the big 12. We’re going to drag nuts on those fuckers. Here we are. 

[D3zii 3938]

[Hmbre97 6337]

[Texas Wahoo 3631]

1 minute ago, utexas8 said:

 

Ok. So if Texas loses, OU wins, OSU wins, and KSU loses:

There is a three way tie for first with Texas, OSU, and OU. The first tiebreaker doesn’t do anything, because no team beat all of the others. So we look for the next highest placed common opponent(s). You are supposed to treat them a group if tied, but do you include teams that one of the teams didn’t play, like WVU if they win?  That is not clear to me. 
 

If this website is accurate, Texas is in no matter what happens in the other three games in this scenario. 
http://bball.notnothing.net/big12.php?sport=fb

[hookemATL 12274]

We are going to assrape Tech. 

[Jewish Wang 111]

2 minutes ago, Gucci_Suit said:

We’re playing the most mouthy team in the big 12. We’re going to drag nuts on those fuckers. Here we are. 

ISU and UH were pretty mouthy too. 

[nycHorn 3123]

We are going to assrape Tech. 

[LOHorn 277]

4 minutes ago, Texas Wahoo said:

Ok. So if Texas loses, OU wins, OSU wins, and KSU loses:

There is a three way tie for first with Texas, OSU, and OU. The first tiebreaker doesn’t do anything, because no team beat all of the others. So we look for the next highest placed common opponent(s). You are supposed to treat them a group if tied, but do you include teams that one of the teams didn’t play, like WVU if they win?  That is not clear to me. 
 

If this website is accurate, Texas is in no matter what happens in the other three games in this scenario. 
http://bball.notnothing.net/big12.php?sport=fb

I think is the next highest common opponent. I think it comes down to Kansas vs Tech’s ranking order. 

[Pancho 46312]

2 minutes ago, Jewish Wang said:

ISU and UH were pretty mouthy too. 

Yeah, but tech is mouthy AND has syphilis stage 3, so that’s a little worse.  

[Texas Wahoo 3631]

1 minute ago, LOHorn said:

I think is the next highest common opponent. I think it comes down to Kansas vs Tech’s ranking order. 

But Tech doesn’t play OU or OSU, so they are definitely not a “common opponent”. 

[Huckleberry 34655]

6 minutes ago, Texas Wahoo said:

Ok. So if Texas loses, OU wins, OSU wins, and KSU loses:

There is a three way tie for first with Texas, OSU, and OU. The first tiebreaker doesn’t do anything, because no team beat all of the others. So we look for the next highest placed common opponent(s). You are supposed to treat them a group if tied, but do you include teams that one of the teams didn’t play, like WVU if they win?  That is not clear to me. 
 

If this website is accurate, Texas is in no matter what happens in the other three games in this scenario. 
http://bball.notnothing.net/big12.php?sport=fb

The only logical interpretation is to use only common opponents from the tied group. So 50/50 chance that's how the Big 12 does it. 

[Kwix 2497]

3 way tie with Texas, OU, OSU:
common opponents
ISU [3 losses]   (OSU lost to ISU)
Kansas [4-5 losses]  (OU lost to KU)
BYU [7 losses]  (all 3 beat BYU)

 

 

against common opponents with 3 losses (ISU)

Texas (1-0), OU (1-0), OSU (0-1)

The rules get a bit murky here

i) Texas and OU are in OSU is out, and then OU is #1 seed via head to head against Texas.

ii) OSU is out, then OU gets #1 seed via head to head against Texas.  Then tiebreaker starts over.  OSU is #2 seed via record against common opponent OU.

Edited November 19, 2023 by Kwix

[Captain Ron 13133]

8 minutes ago, Texas Wahoo said:

Ok. So if Texas loses ….

 

[Magus Ossis 2997]

I know it would be nice to get a revenge game against OU in the CCG. After consideration, though, I think it is better that we do not. Beating OSU instead would give us perpetual scoreboard on the entire irate 8, it would still put a big finger in the league's eye, and it deprives OU of a championship game berth. I wanna see the Horns thrash Tech and then OSU.

[LOHorn 277]

7 minutes ago, Texas Wahoo said:

But Tech doesn’t play OU or OSU, so they are definitely not a “common opponent”. 

Yeah, you are right.

Edited November 19, 2023 by LOHorn

[Kwix 2497]

nm

Edited November 19, 2023 by Kwix

[Texas Wahoo 3631]

3 minutes ago, Kwix said:

ii) OSU is out, then OU gets #1 seed via head to head against Texas.  Then tiebreaker starts over.  OSU is #2 seed via record against common opponent OU.

This is the dummest possible way to do it, so I’m sure the Big 12 will do it that way. 

[Surly Bevo 25748]

2 minutes ago, Magus Ossis said:

I know it would be nice to get a revenge game against OU in the CCG. After consideration, though, I think it is better that we do not. Beating OSU instead would give us perpetual scoreboard on the entire irate 8, it would still put a big finger in the league's eye, and it deprives OU of a championship game berth. I wanna see the Horns thrash Tech and then OSU.

It would actually be eternal scoreboard on all of the 2024 Big 12 with the exception of Cincy (because we have never played Cincy)

[Horn Dogg 4297]

Let’s thrash Tech for the sake of thrashing Tech.  In the words of Aaron Humphrey - time to show them that the only football in Lubbock is high school football.

[Paul Wesley 3313]

I want to win the next two.  

If we beat OSU in championship game, we can say "scoreboard forever" to Yormark and Wiesner and the whole league.

If we beat OU in championship game, we can say "avenged their only loss," which would be a huge thing if we're in a beauty contest of 1-loss teams for the 4th playoff spot.  

[Pato del Muerto 53504]

2 minutes ago, Texas Wahoo said:

This is the dummest possible way to do it, so I’m sure the Big 12 will do it that way. 

Pretty sure the rules read that you use the flow path until you determine the 1 seed, then start the path over with remaining tied teams.  So yeah. 
 

as opposed to stopping the path when a team is eliminated, assigning the 2 remaining teams as participants, and then using the flow to determine seed (as if seeding fucking matters).

[LTtxfan 50005]

12 hours ago, LTtxfan said:

Not sure I buy that a Texas win today clinches B12 Championship appearance.  

 

Not happy, but Alex Loeb agrees...

AAS is a joke  😬

[Patricio Swayze 17058]

Let’s tell Sweat that Texas Tech wrecked his Firebird.

[Kwix 2497]

7 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Pretty sure the rules read that you use the flow path until you determine the 1 seed, then start the path over with remaining tied teams.  So yeah. 
 

as opposed to stopping the path when a team is eliminated, assigning the 2 remaining teams as participants, and then using the flow to determine seed (as if seeding fucking matters).

Ok, but if that's the case, wouldn't we fall to rule 3. Win percentage against all common conference opponents (must be common among all teams involved in the tie).

As rule2 doesn't provide a clear #1 seed.

Edited November 19, 2023 by Kwix

[hookemATL 12274]

3 minutes ago, Patricio Swayze said:

Let’s tell Sweat that Texas Tech wrecked his Firebird.

Maguire talked mess on his mama. 

[immamac 44354]

Texas is seeing red. I wouldn't want to be any red team playing Texas. 

[Texas Wahoo 3631]

Danny Davis is doubling down:

 

 

[USNALonghorn 5186]

Is there a reason that this bullshit conference didn’t set up divisions? Because I can’t think of any good reason.

[Patricio Swayze 17058]

Goddamnit. I hate this conference.

[Rickylovesweed 15514]

The AAS is doubling down because the Big 12 likely told them Texas was in with a win tonight. It's likely straight from the Big 12. 

[JBJ 3827]

For us to be out there would have to be a way for OSU to be #1 seed (so it falls to h2h vs OU), and I don't see one.

Pretty sure we clinched.

Edited November 19, 2023 by JBJ

[mdmost 44048]

We're going to make Joey our bitch. 

[TexEx15 17950]

Just the fact we are all so confused demonstrates how fucking ridiculous this conference is.

[Valmy77 13626]

10 minutes ago, USNALonghorn said:

Is there a reason that this bullshit conference didn’t set up divisions? Because I can’t think of any good reason.

What? For one fucking year?

That would be idiotic. At least stabilize the membership for more than 5 seconds.

Besides what was so fucking awesome about the tie breaker of 2008? This is better.

[JBJ 3827]

44 minutes ago, Kwix said:

ii) OSU is out, then OU gets #1 seed via head to head against Texas.  Then tiebreaker starts over.  Texas is #2 seed via head-to-head over OSU.

fify

[Horn Dogg 4297]

8 minutes ago, JBJ said:

For us to be out there would have to be a way for OSU to be #1 seed (so it falls to h2h vs OU), and I don't see one.

Pretty sure we clinched.

How fucking stupid is it that a team that got blown out by UCF and South Alabama is in the tiebreaker mix for the B12?

[USNALonghorn 5186]

Just now, Valmy77 said:

What? For one fucking year?

That would be idiotic. At least stabilize the membership for more than 5 seconds.

Besides what was so fucking awesome about the tie breaker of 2008? This is better.

Yes, for one year. It’s not that hard to write a schedule that follows divisions and it would actually make sense.
 

2008 was a three way tie and we got fucked by a poll. This year we’d be the highest ranked team and would own any three way tie anyway, since we have by far the best resume.