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MLB Hot Stove 2023/24

TonyTexas

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TonyTexas

TonyTexas 10829

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Pretty good article from Bowden with some predictions about what could happen this offseason. One thing that I found significant is that he thinks ABS with the challenge system could be implemented for the ‘24 season. 
 

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Free agency officially started Monday but the managers, not the players, stole the show, headlined by the Cubs’ stunning swoop to land Craig Counsell. Frankly, I’m still in shockafter yesterday’s series of managerial moves, which also included hires by the Mets (Carlos Mendoza) and Guardians (Stephen Vogt).

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Another unpredictable MLBoffseason is here and although the trades and signings haven’t started in earnest, we have seen some noteworthy transactions, including several teams exercising club options on potential free agents such as Alex Cobb (Giants), José Leclerc (Rangers) and Kyle Hendricks (Cubs). We’ve seen teams cut ties with the faces of their franchise, as the White Sox declined their option on Tim Anderson and the Reds did the same with Joey Votto. We’ve seen players such as Eduardo Rodriguez and Marcus Stroman opt out of contracts (with the Tigers and Cubs, respectively) and players like Josh Bell opt into contracts (with the Marlins). We’ve even seen a trade, as the Tigers acquired Mark Canha from the Brewers for a minor-league reliever. The Marlins have hired Peter Bendixto be their president of baseball operations and the Red Sox chose Craig Breslow to be their chief baseball officer. Got all that?

The big moves, the ones that will keep us on the edge of our seats for weeks, are still to come. So let’s try to guess how this could all play out. Here are 24 predictions for the 2023-24 offseason, what should be another fun and wild winter. Please share your own predictions in the comments section.

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Top 40 MLB free agents: Contract predictions, best team fits for Ohtani, Yamamoto and more

1. None of the seven players who received the one-year, $20.325 million qualifying offer (Shohei Ohtani, Cody Bellinger, Matt Chapman, Josh Hader, Blake Snell, Aaron Nola and Sonny Gray) will accept it, as they all will pursue longer-term deals in free agency.

2. Ohtani will surprise many by signing with the world champion Texas Rangers. The contract includes incentives, escalator clauses and award bonuses that will make him the highest-paid player in the history of the sport. The Dodgers and Marinersfinish as the runner-ups in the Shohei sweepstakes.

3. Aaron Nola signs a five-year, $125 million deal with the Dodgers about 24 hours after they learn that they’ve lost out on Ohtani.

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4. The Phillies, after falling short in their attempts to bring back Nola, quickly pivot and land lefty Jordan Montgomery on a five-year, $127 million contract.

Juan Soto will be a free agent after next season. Will the Padres trade him? (Brad Penner / USA Today)

5. The Yankees pull off a blockbuster trade with the Padres to land three-time All-Star Juan Soto. And then …

6. … New York turns around and inks Yoshinobu Yamamoto to a seven-year, $211 million deal that ultimately pushes the Yankees’ payroll to the highest it’s ever been under owner Hal Steinbrenner.

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Bowden: Could the Padres trade Juan Soto? 5 teams to watch if they decide to move him

7. The Giants sign outfielder Jung Hoo Lee to the largest contract of any position player in this year’s free-agent class outside of Ohtani, Bellinger and Chapman.

8. The Cubs bring back Bellinger on a six-year, $144 million deal to play first base.

9. The Astros hire Joe Espada to be their next manager, promoting him after six seasons as their bench coach.

10. Managers Lou Piniella and Jim Leyland are elected to the Hall of Fame by the Contemporary Baseball Era Committee in the vote during the Winter Meetings.

Coming off a 101-win season, will the Orioles extend any of their young core? (Tommy Gilligan / USA Today)

11. The Orioles shock the baseball world and sign both Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Hendersonto long-term deals that break franchise records. In response, O’s fans break the single-season record for season ticket sales during the Angelos family’s ownership tenure.

12. Julio Urías of the Dodgers and Wander Franco of the Rays receive lengthy suspensions following reviews of their respective cases that make both ineligible to play major-league baseball in 2024.

13. The Twins, coming off an AL Central-winning campaign, stand pat and make no truly significant moves during the offseason.

14. The Angels turn to one of their own, hiring Darin Erstad as their new manager to succeed Phil Nevin.

15. The Washington Nationals are finally sold and the new ownership group includes future Hall of Fame executive Theo Epstein, who will serve as CEO and president of the club.

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16. Bruce Bochy of the Rangers and Skip Schumaker of the Marlins are named managers of the year for their respective leagues. Bochy’s GM, Chris Young, is named MLB Executive of the Year.

17. Joe Maddon and Buck Showalter aren’t hired as managers this offseason. Both of them, along with Dusty Baker, never manage again in the majors. Baker ultimately serves as a consultant with a team while waiting for the call from Cooperstown.

The Cardinals missed Yadier Molina in 2023. Could he return to the dugout in 2024? (Jeff Curry / USA Today)

18. Yadier Molina joins the Cardinalscoaching staff and becomes the most prominent “manager in waiting” in the sport.

19. The Oakland A’s much-debated move to Las Vegas is approved by MLB. The A’s will play the 2024 season in the Coliseum and the next three years in Vegas in their Triple-A ballpark, which is upgraded to serve as their home until a new major-league stadium is built.

20. MLB begins more concrete discussions about expansion but specifies that it won’t happen for at least five to seven years. Nashville, Charlotte and Montreal become the early favorites to land new franchises. The league plans to have four divisions of four teams in each league.

GO DEEPER

Bowden: MLB expansion should include geographic realignment — so let's build new divisions

21. MLB approves the Automated Ball-Strike System with a challenge format for the 2024 season.

GO DEEPER

Are robot umps ready for their MLB debut? Not so fast.

22. Shohei Ohtani and Ronald Acuña Jr. are named the MVPs of their respective leagues.

23. Gerrit Cole and Blake Snell are named Cy Young Award winners.

24. Gunnar Henderson and Corbin Carroll take home Rookie of the Year honors.

GO DEEPER

Bowden: My early award predictions for MVP, Cy Young, Rookie of the Year and more

(Top photo of Shohei Ohtani: John McCoy / Getty Images)

 

 

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Dutchrudder

Dutchrudder 11273

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A lot of the usual baseball speculators think Ohtani will go to the Dodgers, but no news from his camp yet. I always wondered about his impact on the Angels bottom line, as that's likely so valuable to them that they don't want other teams to know the extent of it. This video breaks down the insane amount of revenue he brings to the team that signs him, making his projected 50-70 million a year salary negligible aside from tax purposes. Some interesting highlights from it:

Every Angels game was shown in Japan last year, and there was even a channel dedicated to focusing on Ohtani the entire game. 
Shohei made over 40 million in endorsements last year, next highest was Judge with 4.5 million. 
21 million people in Japan watched the Home Run Derby this year, compared to 7 million in the US.
The World Baseball Classic generated about 480 million in Japan over the 3 weeks they played, thanks to Ohtani. 
The Angels were able to sellout all their behind-the-plate advertisements, many of which were Japanese companies. The maximum value of those advertisements is estimated at 87 million, but it may not have been worth quite that much. Still a huge revenue generator for whatever team signs him. 

 

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Dutchrudder

Dutchrudder 11273

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So the Cardinals get Lynn for 10m, Gibson for 12m. Is that fair value for a couple of ~5 ERA pitchers?  Are the Cardinals trying to compete or not? I know the market isn't great, but neither of these guys move the needle. 

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Cardinals sign P Kyle Gibson to 1-year, $12M deal

One day after signing pitcher Lance Lynn, the St. Louis Cardinals have added righty Kyle Gibson on a one-year deal with an option for 2025, the team announced on Tuesday.

Gbison's deal is worth $12 million next season, sources told ESPN.

Gibson, 36, spent last season with the Baltimore Orioles, going 15-9 with a 4.73 ERA in 33 starts. He threw 192 innings while giving up a league high 198 hits. After spending the first seven years of his career with the Minnesota Twins, the veteran is joining his fourth team in four years. Overall, he's 104-100 with a 4.54 career ERA in 11 seasons.

Gibson joins a rotation with holdovers Miles Mikolas and Steven Matz along with newcomer Lynn. St. Louis ranked 26th in starter's ERA last season and weren't shy about the need to add to their rotation after trading Jack Flaherty and Jordan Montgomery during the season combined with the retirement of Adam Wainwright.

Lynn and Gibson will add valuable innings to a team that could still use a top of rotation type pitcher.

 

 

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