9-1

[Pancho 44938]

4 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Yeah, I went back to look at it.  You have to look at things in context. A 1-loss major conference champion hasn't missed the playoffs, except 2018, which featured an undefeated ND that stole a spot from Ohio State. And 2014, but that didn't count because Baylor/TCU were co-champions and the Big 12 pivoted back to a conf champ game quickly. 

SEC champ will make it: 13-0 Georgia OR 12-1 Alabama
B1G champ will make it: 13-0  Michigan OR Ohio State
Then 2 of:
13-0 FSU
13-0 UW or 12-1 Oregon
12-1 Texas

4 of those 6 will make it. It will suck to be left out if there's 4 undefeateds, which hasn't happened before, and our best hope is FSU loses.  Messiest scenario may be:

12-1 Texas
12-1 UW (lost to Oregon State, but beats Oregon in the Pac 12 title game to eliminate them)
12-1 FSU

Texas really needs FSU to lose a game and better be the biggest Oregon State, ASU and Washington State fans the next 2 weeks.  

My only problem with the bolder is the variables of the committee members aren’t the same. This committee doesn’t have to follow that. They can do whatever they want. Now where we agree is needing FSU to lose. I think Washington can lose this weekend but Texas needs Oregon to lose too.

It’s the same reason people making the claim that a 12-1 Texas isn’t getting left out. There’s no guarantee of that. You can’t make that claim until you know what else is a variable that helps make that claim (with no evidence).

[Js1 85493]

Just now, Pancho said:

My only problem with the bolder is the variables of the committee members aren’t the same. This committee doesn’t have to follow that. They can do whatever they want. Now where we agree is needing FSU to lose. I think Washington can lose this weekend but Texas needs Oregon to lose too.

It’s the same reason people making the claim that a 12-1 Texas isn’t getting left out. There’s no guarantee of that. You can’t make that claim until you know what else is a variable that helps make that claim (with no evidence).

I agree there's no guarantee, but historically, they have given a 12-1 conference champion a bid. The two times a one-loss conf champ was left out was because of an undefeated ND (no chance of that this year) and the Big 12 having two 11-1 champions (thank you CCG). 

The problem is we could have multiple one-loss champions: Texas, Alabama, FSU and UW/Oregon.  Then it gets tricky and Texas fans will be drinking heavily the entirety of December 3.  Texas has H2H on Alabama.  Texas has a better resume than a one-loss FSU and lost much earlier.  I think we only miss out if we get put up against Oregon in a scenario with 13-0 Georgia, 13-0 Ohio State/Michigan, 13-0 FSU and 12-1 Texas and 12-1 Oregon. 

We really need Oregon to lose and then beat UW in the Pac 12 CCG.  A 2-loss conf champion Oregon gets left out.

[The_Great_Hornsby 3276]

15 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Yeah, I went back to look at it.  You have to look at things in context. A 1-loss major conference champion hasn't missed the playoffs, except 2018, which featured an undefeated ND that stole a spot from Ohio State. And 2014, but that didn't count because Baylor/TCU were co-champions and the Big 12 pivoted back to a conf champ game quickly. 

SEC champ will make it: 13-0 Georgia OR 12-1 Alabama
B1G champ will make it: 13-0  Michigan OR Ohio State
Then 2 of:
13-0 FSU
13-0 UW or 12-1 Oregon
12-1 Texas

4 of those 6 will make it. It will suck to be left out if there's 4 undefeateds, which hasn't happened before, and our best hope is FSU loses.  Messiest scenario may be:

12-1 Texas
12-1 UW (lost to Oregon State, but beats Oregon in the Pac 12 title game to eliminate them)
12-1 FSU

Texas really needs FSU to lose a game and better be the biggest Oregon State, ASU and Washington State fans the next 2 weeks.  

This is our current situation in my opinion and what we need to have happen: 

This is all assuming Texas wins out.

Texas gets in guaranteed:

1) Florida State loses to either Florida/ACC finalist (ACC misses playoff)

2) Oregon beats Washington but Oregon drops a game to OSU before they beat Washington (PAC misses playoff)

Less likely but very plausible scenarios:

3) Bama beats Georgia, Texas gets the nod over a 1 loss Pac 12 Champ Oregon by virtue of a H2H road win against the SEC champ (PAC misses playoff)

4) Bama beats Georgia, Texas gets the nod over Bama by virtue of a H2H road win (assuming Washington wins out, SEC misses the playoff)

More unlikely:

5) Georgia loses to Bama and Bama loses to Auburn prior to that result (SEC misses playoff)

Very unlikely scenario:

6) Ohio St/Mich winner loses the Big 10 champ game to Iowa (lol) (Big 10 misses playoff)

[MotownHorn 1776]

I agree that 12-1 Bama would almost certainly make it in over 12-1 Texas, but that just shows how fucking terrible this system is.

We will have beat them on the road, have the same record, and be knocked out by a 1 score loss with 14 seconds left. Doesn't make a lot of logical sense to put them in over us.

FSU has got to lose for us to have a chance. No guarantee we're winning out either, unfortunately. But let's hope we at least give ourselves a chance.

[MotownHorn 1776]

Hornsby I think you're missing a potential scenario. What if Washington loses this weekend and then beats Oregon? They get in over us by virtue of beating Oregon twice?

[closetohumping 17456]

Maybe Mack brown can help us out with fsu 

[texasdago 7577]

Here are three possible reasons why this thread is devolving into a circle jerk...

Iowa State

Texas Tech

Possible Okie State or whoever

Until we get past reasons 1, 2 and 3...

[MotownHorn 1776]

12 hours ago, Rimbo said:

Our loss to OU had NOTHING to do with their quarterback. Do you even watch the games, man?

Our loss to OU had nothing to do with their QB who put up 398 total yards on us? 113 of those on the ground, many on 3rd & medium/long to extend drives?

Ok man. Whatever you say.

[Lou_Sassle 2887]

6 minutes ago, Js1 said:

I agree there's no guarantee, but historically, they have given a 12-1 conference champion a bid. The two times a one-loss conf champ was left out was because of an undefeated ND (no chance of that this year) and the Big 12 having two 11-1 champions (thank you CCG). 

The problem is we could have multiple one-loss champions: Texas, Alabama, FSU and UW/Oregon.  Then it gets tricky and Texas fans will be drinking heavily the entirety of December 3.  Texas has H2H on Alabama.  Texas has a better resume than a one-loss FSU and lost much earlier.  I think we only miss out if we get put up against Oregon in a scenario with 13-0 Georgia, 13-0 Ohio State/Michigan, 13-0 FSU and 12-1 Texas and 12-1 Oregon. 

We really need Oregon to lose and then beat UW in the Pac 12 CCG.  A 2-loss conf champion Oregon gets left out.

I still think if we beat ISU, then beat the shit out of Tech (a common opponent with Oregon that they barely beat), then the committee might use that as an excuse to move us ahead of Oregon. 

[Rimbo 26038]

3 minutes ago, MotownHorn said:

Our loss to OU had nothing to do with their QB who put up 398 total yards on us? 113 of those on the ground, many on 3rd & medium/long to extend drives?

Ok man. Whatever you say.

Yes. That's correct.

Because the statistics you're quoting don't correlate to winning football games very strongly.

[Js1 85493]

7 minutes ago, Lou_Sassle said:

I still think if we beat ISU, then beat the shit out of Tech (a common opponent with Oregon that they barely beat), then the committee might use that as an excuse to move us ahead of Oregon. 

Depends. They’re facing Oregon State, who is ranked. We will have 5-3 or 4-4 Tech. 

[Lou_Sassle 2887]

1 minute ago, Js1 said:

Depends. They’re facing Oregon State, who is ranked. We will have 5-3 or 4-4 Tech. 

Yes, but the committee has said in the past that they take common opponents into consideration. 

[Js1 85493]

3 minutes ago, Lou_Sassle said:

Yes, but the committee has said in the past that they take common opponents into consideration. 

The committee will do whatever it wants. I could easily see them being like “week 2 vs week 12, it’s not the same” or some shit 

[BabaYaga 15304]

1 minute ago, Js1 said:

The committee will do whatever it wants. I could easily see them being like “week 2 vs week 12, it’s not the same” or some shit 

If AL makes it in, it's because they beat the defending national title and #1 ranked GA - that will be the narrative.  What have you done for me lately.  This is why style points matter later in the season.  They'll make the claim that one team is peaking and the other is blowing 20pt leads and limping past teams.  It's bullshit, but it's also clear as day this could happen.  

[Pancho 44938]

7 minutes ago, Lou_Sassle said:

Yes, but the committee has said in the past that they take common opponents into consideration. 

That was a past committee.

This years committee can say “well we are valuing eye test more heavily over h2h” and no one can do anything about it.

[ITHorn 801]

44 minutes ago, MotownHorn said:

Hornsby I think you're missing a potential scenario. What if Washington loses this weekend and then beats Oregon? They get in over us by virtue of beating Oregon twice?

Yep. I think this may be a sneaky path that could very well come to fruition. Plus you would be talking about Washington losing to an Oregon State team who probably drops the following game @ Oregon to end the season with 3 losses. Not sure how the committee could say that a 3 loss Oregon State is a better loss than a two loss OU. 

[Red Five 40879]

We would not get left out in favor of a one loss Washington.
I think.

[The_Great_Hornsby 3276]

58 minutes ago, MotownHorn said:

Hornsby I think you're missing a potential scenario. What if Washington loses this weekend and then beats Oregon? They get in over us by virtue of beating Oregon twice?

Yeah, I have played with that idea. I imagine we would go over them because of brand and money, but it would be far from a guarantee. Also I do not think Washington will beat Oregon. 

[The_Great_Hornsby 3276]

37 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

If AL makes it in, it's because they beat the defending national title and #1 ranked GA - that will be the narrative.  What have you done for me lately.  This is why style points matter later in the season.  They'll make the claim that one team is peaking and the other is blowing 20pt leads and limping past teams.  It's bullshit, but it's also clear as day this could happen.  

But they will jump us over Oregon in that scenario in my opinion to avoid the controversy. So Bama beating Georgia is one of our strongest paths if FSU doesnt drop a game. 

[CoTex 1161]

Nobody at bigxii hq would cry if Texas got screwed by the committee.  In fact, they might celebrate.  If there was ever a year that the committee could give a conference "the business," it would be this year if Texas won the ccg.

 

[Fondren & Main 6731]

Lot of football left to play for everyone.  I just want to win the next one to guarantee a shot at the conference for now.  

If we win 3 in a row and are left out then we can fire up the billboards and banners.

[closetohumping 17456]

1 loss Georgia is a lock right?

[texasdago 7577]

12 minutes ago, Fondren & Main said:

Lot of football left to play for everyone.  I just want to win the next one to guarantee a shot at the conference for now.  

If we win 3 in a row and are left out then we can fire up the billboards and banners.

[closetohumping 17456]

14 minutes ago, Fondren & Main said:

Lot of football left to play for everyone.  I just want to win the next one to guarantee a shot at the conference for now.  

If we win 3 in a row and are left out then we can fire up the billboards and banners.

I think we need to win both to have a guaranteed shot unfortunately 

[Kwix 2193]

3 minutes ago, closetohumping said:

1 loss Georgia is a lock right?

SEC champ or no?

 

I think 1 loss SEC champ is in regardless.  Georgia loses in the championship game and I could see them getting passed up.

[Js1 85493]

10 minutes ago, closetohumping said:

1 loss Georgia is a lock right?

Are they?

12-1 Alabama
13-0 Michigan/Ohio State
13-0 Washington
13-0 FSU

Georgia would be out in this scenario.

12-1 Alabama (SEC champ)
13-0 Michigan/Ohio State (B1G champ)
12-1 Washington/Oregon (Pac 12 champ)
12-1 or 13-0 FSU (ACC champ)
12-1 Texas (Big 12 champ)
12-1 Georgia (non champ)

I wouldn't want to be Georgia in this scenario. Outside looking in. 

Georgia would probably need both an 11-2 Big 12 champ Texas and an 11-2 Pac 12 champ Oregon (or a non-FSU ACC champ) to be in the discussion to remain in the top 4. 

12-1 Alabama
13-0 Michigan/Ohio State
11-2 Texas (means a loss to Texas Tech and a win over Ok State)
11-2 Oregon (means a loss to Oregon State and a win over UW)
12-1 FSU (means a loss to Florida and a win over Louisville)
12-1 Georgia

Edited November 16, 2023 by Js1

[The_Great_Hornsby 3276]

10 minutes ago, closetohumping said:

1 loss Georgia is a lock right?

They are a lock to not make it (unless that loss came to Tenn or GT). They have to win the SEC title game to make the playoff. 

[Rimbo 26038]

1 hour ago, MotownHorn said:

Our loss to OU had nothing to do with their QB who put up 398 total yards on us? 113 of those on the ground, many on 3rd & medium/long to extend drives?

Ok man. Whatever you say.

 

1 hour ago, Rimbo said:

Yes. That's correct.

Because the statistics you're quoting don't correlate to winning football games very strongly.

 

And because I'm Plan II, I'm not going to let this slide. And because @BabaYaga and @closetohumping were foolish enough to +rep your foolishness, I'm tagging them, too.

You can dig through the web and find a lot of work on this topic, and while not everyone investigates the same statistics across the same games, to the extent that they do, they come up with similar results. I'm going to use this Reddit post largely because (1) the guy shows his work, and (2) the stat that correlates the most, on its own, is a great way to show the pitfall with all this -- that correlation and causation aren't the same thing.

But anyway. For posterity, in case Reddit dies before Surly does, and to save you a click:

Quote

Stat	Record	Win Pct
More Rush Atts	3954-969 (141 tied)	0.803
Fewer Turnovers	3174-849 (1041 tied)	0.789
Fewer Pass INTs	2806-808 (1450 tied)	0.776
More Rush TDs	2626-805 (1633 tied)	0.765
More Pass TDs	2645-988 (1431 tied)	0.728
Fewer Sacks Taken	3001-1198 (865 tied)	0.715
More Rush Yds	3581-1458 (25 tied)	0.711
Fewer Sack Yds Lost	3316-1522 (226 tied)	0.685
Fewer Fumbles Lost	2055-985 (2024 tied)	0.676
More Total Yds	3404-1642 (18 tied)	0.675
More First Downs	3150-1664 (250 tied)	0.654
Fewer Fumbles	2405-1415 (1244 tied)	0.630
Fewer Penalties	2531-1986 (547 tied)	0.560
More Net Pass Yds	2815-2233 (16 tied)	0.558
Fewer Penalty Yds	2718-2242 (104 tied)	0.548
More Pass Yds	2643-2403 (18 tied)	0.524
More Pass Cmp	2092-2695 (277 tied)	0.437
More Pass Att	1545-3365 (154 tied)	0.315

Note that this guy's stats and ones I've seen from Football Outsiders (RIP), actual research institutions, etc., more or less all show the same correlations and very similar numbers. And you're going to have to expand open that quote to scroll all the way down to where "pass yards" goes.

Pass yards gained has almost no impact on the outcome. Rush yards gained does. But rush yards gained pales in significance to turnovers, especially interceptions.

Now remind me. Against OU, what happened with the turnovers? Did one team have, say, a LOT more interceptions than the other one?

Now that top statistic, like I said above, shows that correlation is not equal to causation. Typically, if you have more rush attempts, it's because you're sitting on a lead already and are burning out the clock. But still. It's not exactly arcane divination to grasp that the team with the most turnovers usually loses the game, no matter how many yards they gained.

Edited November 16, 2023 by Rimbo

[MotownHorn 1776]

Edit: Sorry I see you posted the stats. I'll take a look

Edited November 16, 2023 by MotownHorn

[Hondo 682]

17 hours ago, Pancho said:

 

 

 

Yep.  And it's nobody's fault but our own.  Don't lose to Oklahoma on the last play of the game and it's a non-issue.

[BigHornedLurker 1958]

1 hour ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

But they will jump us over Oregon in that scenario in my opinion to avoid the controversy. So Bama beating Georgia is one of our strongest paths if FSU doesnt drop a game. 

this has been my game theory for awhile as well 

assuming bama and texas win out, committee will look for any opportunity to toss us both in there to avoid the controversy 

[The_Great_Hornsby 3276]

5 minutes ago, BigHornedLurker said:

this has been my game theory for awhile as well 

assuming bama and texas win out, committee will look for any opportunity to toss us both in there to avoid the controversy 

Yeah they will say "Texas won their conference championship and owns a head to head night road win over Alabama, the SEC champ. That is the most impressive win in the country and Alabama will get a chance at redemption should they meet again in the playoff championship." (Monster ratings if their is a rematch) Oregon fans miss out and cry. 

[gmr548 16592]

19 hours ago, Fondren & Main said:

It’s kind of bullshit that Oregon didn’t fall after their last second loss while we did.  

Team A lost by 4 as a 7 point favorite to a team ranked 9 spots below them on a neutral site, while committing three turnovers. They managed to take a late lead as their opponent's offense struggled with miscues in the second half, only to offer absolutely no resistance against their time out-less opponent as they marched down for the win.

Team B lost by 3 as a 3 point road underdog to a team ranked one spot higher than them' i.e. the assessment of them essentially being equal played out. They were +1 in the TO margin, with 0 turnovers, and +10 mins in TOP. Their coach elected to pass on taking a FG a couple of times, opting to try to win the game on fourth down. It didn't work and they still drove the field and were in a position to win; it came down to a barely missed field goal.

Are these comparable situations?

[Rimbo 26038]

4 hours ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

Yeah they will say "Texas won their conference championship and owns a head to head night road win over Alabama, the SEC champ. That is the most impressive win in the country and Alabama will get a chance at redemption should they meet again in the playoff championship." (Monster ratings if their is a rematch) Oregon fans miss out and cry. 

None of this shit matters if we lose to Iowa State.

[texifornia 57052]

22 hours ago, ClubWhatever said:

This is not even a playoff caliber team without Brooks, and with the jags that have been playing in the secondary and at OG.  We're about 4 players short.   Need to keep stacking recruiting classes and portal fill-ins.  

There is no "Playoff caliber team." There are teams that make the Playoff and then go take advantage of the opportunity and fucking win. 

This isn't boring, corporate bullshit like the NFL. Cfb is high delta variability and 18 year olds suddenly doing great or awful shit. Embrace it.

[Js1 85493]

1 hour ago, gmr548 said:

Team A lost by 4 as a 7 point favorite to a team ranked 9 spots below them on a neutral site, while committing three turnovers. They managed to take a late lead as their opponent's offense struggled with miscues in the second half, only to offer absolutely no resistance against their time out-less opponent as they marched down for the win.

Team B lost by 3 as a 3 point road underdog to a team ranked one spot higher than them' i.e. the assessment of them essentially being equal played out. They were +1 in the TO margin, with 0 turnovers, and +10 mins in TOP. Their coach elected to pass on taking a FG a couple of times, opting to try to win the game on fourth down. It didn't work and they still drove the field and were in a position to win; it came down to a barely missed field goal.

Are these comparable situations?

The rankings at the time (coaches and AP) absolutely punished Oregon the same as us when we lost - we both dropped to 11 and worked our way back up as other teams lost. First CFP rankings came out 2 week after they lost and 3 weeks after we lost. The movement back up and other losses by other teams was baked in by the time the first rankings came out. 

Confused about this narrative Oregon wasn’t punished or moved down for losing. They were. 

[Bevo14 8358]

Oregon State could solve all our fuckin problems within a little over a week, assuming we don't shit the bed.

[mwaadeeb 1234]

20 hours ago, Vic Mackey said:

I'm curious what the voters do if Bama beats Georgia and both end with 1 loss. Do they take them both as they have several times before? They took both Michigan and Ohio State last year. Bama and Georgia the year before. We beat Bama head to head. I guess the committee could say it was before Milroe got good but we still did it and on the road..

 

So it's not pussy to talk about this kind stuff? Cool.

[Hank_Hill 18893]

5 minutes ago, mwaadeeb said:

So it's not pussy to talk about this kind stuff? Cool.

I mean his premise was shot down multiple times. 

[Vic Mackey 47110]

2 minutes ago, Hank_Hill said:

I mean his premise was shot down multiple times. 

Ohio State should both have 0 losses when they face off next week. Winner of that is 95% likely to win the Big 10 undefeated and get that bid.

Let's say Bama beats Georgia to win the SEC with 1 loss.

Oregon beats Washington to win the Pac-12 with 1 loss.

FSU wins out and gets in automatically.

Texas wins out and wins the Big 12 with 1 loss.

Which 2 teams do they take from Bama, UT, Oregon? I'm not asking which 2 you want or deserve it the most. Because we all know the committee doesn't always work like that. Oregon winning the Pac-12 means they beat a probably undefeated top 4 Washington team. That is quality win for sure. Bama winning the SEC means they beat a probably undefeated top 2 Georgia team. Definitely a quality win. We will beat some bumfuck Big 12 team with no real national respect because our conference is trash. We will easily have the lesser conference championship win of those teams remaining. And we all know there is no way the committee leaves out the SEC.

So then I'd say it comes down to Oregon and Texas for the final bid. Not sure who they think has the best resume overall. 

[BigHornedLurker 1958]

I can see it now , lots of noise about Georgia being repeat Champs 

Bama beats Georgia and is ranked 5 

Texas who beat Bama is ranked 6 because Bama beat the 2x defending Champs 

For consistency Georgia falls to ... 4 because they lost to the team that beat the 2x defending Champs 

Edited November 17, 2023 by BigHornedLurker

[Hank_Hill 18893]

8 minutes ago, Vic Mackey said:

Ohio State should both have 0 losses when they face off next week. Winner of that is 95% likely to win the Big 10 undefeated and get that bid.

Let's say Bama beats Georgia to win the SEC with 1 loss.

Oregon beats Washington to win the Pac-12 with 1 loss.

FSU wins out and gets in automatically.

Texas wins out and wins the Big 12 with 1 loss.

Which 2 teams do they take from Bama, UT, Oregon? I'm not asking which 2 you want or deserve it the most. Because we all know the committee doesn't always work like that. Oregon winning the Pac-12 means they beat a probably undefeated top 4 Washington team. That is quality win for sure. Bama winning the SEC means they beat a probably undefeated top 2 Georgia team. Definitely a quality win. We will beat some bumfuck Big 12 team with no real national respect because our conference is trash. We will easily have the lesser conference championship win of those teams remaining. And we all know there is no way the committee leaves out the SEC.

So then I'd say it comes down to Oregon and Texas for the final bid. Not sure who they think has the best resume overall. 

Your original post asked if Bama beats Georgia if they both go. The answer is no, 1 loss Georgia without a conference championship doesn’t go in over us. All that other stuff is definitely on the table. 

[Nueces River Rat 5539]

All you gals worried about Oregon staying where they are do know they still have to play Oregon State?   That’s not an auto W for the Ducks

[dcar00 14329]

2 hours ago, Rimbo said:

None of this shit matters if we lose to Iowa State.

I mean can I get some gotdam fucking BillinSinton FOCUSNESS! up in here, PLEASE!

[Hank_Hill 18893]

2 hours ago, Rimbo said:

None of this shit matters if we lose to Iowa State.

None of this shit in here matters regarding our performance in the ISU game so we’re good to continue.

[jw4381 3093]

Rig 12 championship or bust. JW's opinion.

Running back room needs to step up. Hell, put J. Whitt back there for some runs.

LFG

[Pancho 44938]

13 hours ago, Nueces River Rat said:

All you gals worried about Oregon staying where they are do know they still have to play Oregon State?   That’s not an auto W for the Ducks

Ehh, that game is in Eugene. It's more likely a W than not. Since 1975, Oregon leads 35-12-1

that rivaly is like ou/Oklahoma State

[Huckleberry 33062]

14 hours ago, mwaadeeb said:

So it's not pussy to talk about this kind stuff? Cool.

One great way to prove you're not a pussy is to still be upset about someone telling you to stop being one 4 days later. 

[mwaadeeb 1234]

51 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

One great way to prove you're not a pussy is to still be upset about someone telling you to stop being one 4 days later. 

You can't quit me, can you?

[Nueces River Rat 5539]

1 hour ago, Pancho said:

Ehh, that game is in Eugene. It's more likely a W than not. Since 1975, Oregon leads 35-12-1

that rivaly is like ou/Oklahoma State

True... But it seems just like Okie State/OuSuks that one of the teams sucked going into that game.   This year is kind of different