Formula 1 2024

[wood 11,236]

5 hours ago, Burt Macklin said:

The telemetry and speed traps made it look like Verstappen had his engine way tuned down. certainly more so that Leclerc and others. He was one of the slowest in the speed traps on those stints. So probably need to add another .2/.3 to everyone else’s times to adjust for engine mode. I’ll be beyond shocked if the gap between Verstappen and Ferrari is only .3. 

... and some of the teams apparently think he was running with 85kg fuel weight much of the time.

[elfenix 34,331]

1 hour ago, wood said:

... and some of the teams apparently think he was running with 85kg fuel weight much of the time.

[Burt Macklin 19,038]

This might be the most accurate way to sum up testing I’ve seen. 
 

https://www.reddit.com/r/formula1/s/rythU2D4QW

 

 

[NoName 16,369]

22 hours ago, NoName said:

I really like Gasly. Dude seems really likeable off the track 

And here we are in the Alpine episode and man, Ocon couldn't possibly be more of a prick if he tried.

 

[wood 11,236]

2 hours ago, NoName said:

And here we are in the Alpine episode and man, Ocon couldn't possibly be more of a prick if he tried.

From what I hear hardly anyone in the paddock can even stand to be around Ocon - even the French guys.

[deft 6,872]

[wood 11,236]

F1 Debrief on twitter (@f1debrief) compiled every testing lap time and broke them by driver and day, here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/u/0/d/11npchw-mS3BR0kwSkJUg0JKXkGjam7Zg/htmlview#

I noticed something interesting and then realized he had already tweeted about it as well. Hmm ...

 

Edited February 26 by wood

[Guest]

[wood 11,236]

1 hour ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

LOL. So, tl;dr ...

Max's Day 3 long runs were more similar to Alonso's than anyone else's, and Max's and Alonso's tires were wearing very well.

Alonso was slower than Max by less than 0.3s on average overall, and his quickest stint average (his last) was only about 0.13s slower per lap than Max's quickest one (also his last).

Edited February 26 by wood

[utee94 15,842]

7 minutes ago, wood said:

LOL. So, tl;dr ...

Max's Day 3 long runs were more similar to Alonso's than anyone else's, and Max's and Alonso's tires were wearing very well.

Alonso was slower than Max by less than 0.3s on average overall, and his quickest stint average (his last) was only about 0.13s slower per lap than Max's quickest one (also his last).

 

[wood 11,236]

1 minute ago, utee94 said:

 

Yeah me too. Wewillsee. I do think this car has good to great long run pace, but they seem to struggle more in qualifying trim. If they can get on top of that, who knows ...

[Chewbacca 7,781]

27 minutes ago, wood said:

LOL. So, tl;dr ...

Max's Day 3 long runs were more similar to Alonso's than anyone else's, and Max's and Alonso's tires were wearing very well.

Alonso was slower than Max by less than 0.3s on average overall, and his quickest stint average (his last) was only about 0.13s slower per lap than Max's quickest one (also his last).

I've heard a lot of speculation that RB had their engine turned down for testing.  I guess we'll find out for sure this weekend.

[ConferenceRoom 6,145]

You all know how this is going to go. 

[wood 11,236]

12 minutes ago, ConferenceRoom said:

You all know how this is going to go. 

Yeah don't get me wrong. I still think Max will be quickest. I'm just curious where AM will shake out in all of this.

[Anton Chigurh 3,319]

I’ve got:

RBR
Ferrari/Merc (I think this will be close again)
Aston
McLaren (for now)

I think McLaren might be late on their aero package and will improve after that.

[ConferenceRoom 6,145]

No Context Kimi

[utee94 15,842]

Kimi, do you need some help with those cops?

"Leave me alone, I know what I'm doing."

[NoName 16,369]

 

and Athletic article on life of a reserve driver

 

Spoiler

The life of an F1 reserve driver: Sim time, data crunching — and Candy Crush

Madeline Coleman

Feb 26, 2024

7

Between the Racing Lines 🏁| Formula One is complicated, confusing and constantly evolving. This story is part of our guide to help any fan — regardless of how long they’ve watched the sport or how they discovered it — navigate the pinnacle of motorsports.

---

Every team sport has backups for the starting lineup, and Formula One is no different.

The series is often described as the pinnacle of motorsport, but these 20 drivers aren’t invincible. Illnesses and injuries do sideline them, opening the door for prospective drivers to show why they’re part of the F1 world. Nyck de Vries’ debut for Williams at the 2022 Italian Grand Prix after Alex Albon was hospitalized for appendicitis later landed him a full-time seat. Most recently, Liam Lawson nailed his outings with AlphaTauri (now RB) when Daniel Ricciardo injured his hand and underwent surgery last year.

But these reserve drivers are more than simple substitutes. While in the F1 wings, they also spend hours (we’re talking endurance race-level hours, sometimes) on the simulator and have unrestricted testing time as long as they’re in old machinery. And then there’s the ‘young drivers rule,’ which went into effect in 2022, ensuring they get some on-track time during practice sessions.

It’s all in the hope of proving they can handle and excel in the upper echelon of motorsports.

An awkward waiting game

“You drink a lot of cappuccinos, and you play a lot of Candy Crush on your phone, I’m going to be honest with you,” Alexander Rossi, a former F1 driver turned Arrow McLaren IndyCar driver, said.

The American dreamed of one day competing in F1 and moved to Europe as a teenager. He joined Caterham F1 in 2012 as a test driver and occasionally ran practice sessions, but they parted ways in mid-2014 after new investors took over the team. Rossi then joined Marussia F1 as a reserve driver that same year and finally made his F1 debut the following season for five of the final seven races of 2015.

 

“You drink a lot of cappuccinos, and you play a lot of Candy Crush on your phone,” Alexander Rossi said of the F1 reserve driver life. He’s now racing in IndyCar. (Chris Graythen/Getty Images)

“It’s a necessary role because it’s your first foot in the door of a Formula One team as a junior driver. It is an important role because guys do get sick, guys do get hurt. There’s a lot of things that can happen in life, right?” Rossi said. “It’s not often that the reserve driver comes into play, but ultimately, you go into the weekend preparing and participating as if you’re going to race the car.”

Nearly everything the full-time F1 driver does, the reserve driver does as well. Rossi said. “You go to all of the same briefings, you go to all the same meetings, you do the track walks, you train with the same physio, you eat the same food, you’re on the same schedule. You just don’t get to drive. So while the guys were doing the cool things and driving, you’re sitting either in hospitality or on the pit stand, drinking your cappuccinos, playing Candy Crush.”

To get a shot at competing in a grand prix, something bad, like an injury or illness, usually has to happen to the full-time driver. Haas’ reserve driver, Pietro Fittipaldi, said, “It’s for sure, strange. You never want to wish anything bad on anybody, and then when something does happen, it’s like, you’re happy that there’s the opportunity, but at the end, you’re friends with the race driver.” He made his F1 debut in 2020 after Romain Grosjean sustained injuries from his fiery wreck in Bahrain.

After qualifying, a reserve driver’s job for the weekend is essentially done. It’s the driver that qualifies in F1, so if they can’t compete in the GP, nobody can replace them. (IndyCar allows for such substitutions, as it’s the car that qualifies.) Pato O’Ward, one of McLaren’s IndyCar drivers and a reserve driver for the Woking-based team, said he jokes with his friends that he’s an F1 “benchwarmer.”

“You get to jump into a Formula One car from time to time, which is never a bad thing,” O’Ward said. “And the rest of it is, it’s probably the worst part of the job, I’d say. I know, I shouldn’t be saying this, but it’s a lot of sitting down and just listening to experiences that, well, you truly aren’t experiencing. You’re just hearing what someone else is kind of feeling.”

Debriefing and practicing

Once an on-track session finishes, drivers and engineers sit down to comb over the data and discuss the car’s setup and strategy, identifying ways to improve performance. Reserve drivers can also sit in on the meetings, but O’Ward said it’s mainly staying silent and listening, “which I personally hate.”

He wants to be in the car, experiencing the drive. Reserve drivers can ask questions, but O’Ward prefers listening to the full-time drivers because “I feel like when I’m not the one in the car, I learn from what they’re saying.” He added, “It’s very simple things. I feel like a lot of people make it so much more complicated than what it actually is. But it’s like, Yes, I get it’s Formula One, but it’s just another race car. And it’s just another car that you need to wrap your head around.”

GO DEEPER

‘Full send or nothing’: IndyCar star O’Ward stakes latest F1 claim in Abu Dhabi test

Each team’s reserve driver role looks different, and experience can open up opportunities to add responsibilities. Fittipaldi joined Haas in 2018, became the official reserve driver the following year, and now plays a more active role in the analysis and driver feedback. During qualifying last season, he watched Kevin Magnussen and Nico Hülkenberg’s onboards with an engineer. They’d pass feedback to Magnussen’s race engineer, like if he was braking too early in a corner.

“I was helping that process of giving driver feedback live throughout the session so that they can improve, and that as well, I gained a lot of experience in analyzing data and driver onboards, which is very beneficial for when I’m racing as well because I kind of became like an engineer on that standpoint,” Fittipaldi said.

He realized his perspective as a fellow competitor had value and that he could translate data to the full-time driver. Fittipaldi approached then-team principal Guenther Steiner and then-technical director Ayao Komatsu to ask about expanding his role, to “maximize what I do in the race weekend” after his first full season as a reserve driver. Analyzing the data also helped prepare him for practice sessions.

2024 F1 Reserve Drivers

Alpine	Jack Doohan
Aston Martin	Felipe Drugovich & Stoffel Vandoorne
Ferrari	Oliver Bearman, Antonio Giovinazzi & Robert Schwartzman
Haas	Pietro Fittipaldi & Oliver Bearman
McLaren	Ryo Hirakawa & Pato O'Ward
Mercedes	Mick Schumacher, Frederik Vesti
Red Bull	Liam Lawson
Stake F1 Kick Sauber	Theo Pourchaire & Zane Maloney
Visa Cash App Red Bull	Liam Lawson

“I analyze first from the data where each driver was faster, and I write notes and make sure that I know how to maximize each corner,” Fittipaldi said. “And then I analyze a lot of the onboards and stuff to pick up references from the track, so that I know exactly where the brake references, the apex point is, and you do that homework.

“That helps me a lot to just basically get in and fast-forward the process of getting up to speed with the car.”

Simulator versus live racing

F1 team simulators really are top-of-the-line, providing drivers a mostly accurate virtual run – with the same F1 cockpit, wheel and pedals as the real car. “The simulator is very good because graphically, it’s very realistic,” Fittipaldi said. “The references in terms of using the signage boards and apex points to give you references is very, very close, if not identical, to real life.”

But some in-person racing aspects can’t be replicated virtually, such as the feeling of accelerating and G-forces. Fittipaldi added: “On the simulator, you go into a fast corner, you turn in, and the simulator moves a little bit, but that’s all you feel. And then in real life, you go in there, and your head is going completely the opposite way of where you’re turning.”

Simulator work is one component of a reserve driver’s role, and it looks different for each individual and season. Fittipaldi said the 2019 season was the most laps Haas recorded on a simulator, and he estimated that he had 80 simulator days, which lasted from 8 a.m. to 6 p.m. with two to three breaks. “Each of those days, you do from 100 to 150 laps.” That’s easily around 12,000 laps, and for reference, an F1 season is over 1,000 laps when counting grands prix and sprint races.

Sometimes, the reserves compete in other motorsports series, limiting how much time they can spend on the simulator. But when schedules allow or if they opt to focus on being a reserve driver rather than racing elsewhere on top of the role, they spend extensive time on the simulator on Fridays of race weekends.

“On a race support on a Friday session, if we’re talking about we’re in the factory in the UK and the race teams in Australia, we could be on the sim from anywhere from starting at around 2:30 a.m. to finishing around 6:30 p.m. That’s a good 16-hour day on the sim,” said Jack Doohan, Alpine’s reserve driver. He finished third in Formula Two last season and won’t compete in other series this year.

 

As a Haas reserve driver, Pietro Fittipaldi plays an active role in analysis and drives the occasional practice session. (GIUSEPPE CACACE/POOL/AFP via Getty Images)

The simulator provides a way for teams to test different ideas that trackside teams may not have the capability or time to do, Doohan said. “We’re able to sort of shortcut a few of those paths, put a line through or tick off any potential options, which really help the engineers on track define what their plan will be before the second free practice session, or what they’re going to target for the third.”

The reserve drivers also get an opportunity to drive F1 cars in real life. The testing of previous cars (TPC) protocols don’t restrict how many hours or laps drivers do in previous-year cars, and this year, they’ll be able to test the 2022 vehicle — the first of the current generation after the regulation overhaul. Doohan has been testing the 2021 car since 2022, and after a session in Barcelona under his belt where he essentially did “a mini race weekend,” he can feel the “small differences.”

But it’s the closest thing to the real car on the track today. During his Barcelona test, Doohan did a 66-lap, double-stop race with three different tire compounds, and he’s got nine more test sessions scheduled at various tracks, including two days at Zandvoort and one day at Qatar.

“Really just trying to make sure that if I need to jump in the car, and when I do, then I’m more ready than ever,” Doohan said. “And then I can make sure that we do the best and, especially for when I do become a full-time driver very soon, that I’ll be making the most of it.”

The 2025 driver market should be hectic, with numerous F1 contracts expiring by season’s end. But there are plenty of talented reserve drivers waiting in the wings, like Lawson over in the Red Bull family, Aston Martin reserve driver Felipe Drugovich (who won the 2022 F2 title) and Sauber’s Théo Pourchaire (who won the 2023 F2 championship).

Being a reserve driver looks different across different camps, with various duties, and it also depends on experience levels. But the bottom line for all is the same.

“I’m here to shadow the drivers,” Doohan said, “and be ready to hop in the car at any given moment, which is what I feel I’m ready to do.”

 

[wood 11,236]

Bernie Collins said when the tests were held in Spain the teams would bring new parts every day. Those parts would be installed based on what the car did the previous day. Testing this far away from base with such a short lead time to the 1st race has changed that metric considerably. I won't be at all surprised to see a few 1.5 spec cars show up by FP2.

In other news, ugh, Liberty Media coming to a MotoGP near you?

 

[Burt Macklin 19,038]

28 minutes ago, wood said:

Bernie Collins said when the tests were held in Spain the teams would bring new parts every day. Those parts would be installed based on what the car did the previous day. Testing this far away from base with such a short lead time to the 1st race has changed that metric considerably. I won't be at all surprised to see a few 1.5 spec cars show up by FP2.

In other news, ugh, Liberty Media coming to a MotoGP near you?

 

Yeah, testing in Bahrain is similar to all the street tracks. Sacrificing quality for big fat paychecks. it’s even more complicated because the first Europe race isn’t until Race 7, so you have to bring updates at somewhere like Australia, Japan, or China unless you want a third of the season to slip away. 
 

Ferrari has already said they’ll have some minor updates for Thursday and then a big update package for Japan. 
 

Im sure lots of other teams will be doing something similar. RB is rumored to be going with a zero pod update by Japan, which is race 4 this year. Supposedly they had a bunch of space between their reconfigured radiators and the sidepod ay testing, so technical folks are surmising they’re planning a zero pod-type design. 

[Buzzrock 14,936]

Work event today where Cognizant was supposed to bring the AM FW driver but she got sick and couldn’t come. They did have a rep there and I asked if Alonso was still sore about the testing duration. She said “Um, he’s ok? I’m not sure how much I can say…” The rest was the standard cars look good, drivers feel good, looking forward to the weekend stuff.

[Burt Macklin 19,038]

So an Italian reporter who knows the Ferrari engine modes watched the onboard of Charles day 3 runs and says Ferrari ran close to a race-spec engine mode (race engine, lower ERS) on Day 3 to induce tire deg because they weren’t getting much in conservative modes on Day 2 with Carlos. Someone compared Charles 3rd lap in the 2023 race to his 3rd lap in the race sim on Day 3 with the same tire. He actually lost some time on the straight due to clipping, so if he had been running full race mode, he would’ve been about 1.5 seconds faster than last year. Ferrari completely fucked up their 2023 car, but it’s still crazy to think they’ve gained about 1.5 seconds in race pace over last year with a much better idea how to develop this year. 
 

[Mittens 8,296]

Reminder that this is a jacked up race weekend.

 

[NoName 16,369]

2 hours ago, Burt Macklin said:

So an Italian reporter who knows the Ferrari engine modes watched the onboard of Charles day 3 runs and says Ferrari ran close to a race-spec engine mode (race engine, lower ERS) on Day 3 to induce tire deg because they weren’t getting much in conservative modes on Day 2 with Carlos. Someone compared Charles 3rd lap in the 2023 race to his 3rd lap in the race sim on Day 3 with the same tire. He actually lost some time on the straight due to clipping, so if he had been running full race mode, he would’ve been about 1.5 seconds faster than last year. Ferrari completely fucked up their 2023 car, but it’s still crazy to think they’ve gained about 1.5 seconds in race pace over last year with a much better idea how to develop this year. 
 

 

[VABuckeye 2,472]

IT'S RACE WEEK!!!!!!!!!!

[Goofyboy 3,293]

Apparently Alpine has an overweight, slow car and they can’t figure out a path forward

[deft 6,872]

Apparently Alpine has an overweight, slow car and they can’t figure out a path forward

They need to fire Otmar and figure this out

[elfenix 34,331]

 

[TonyTexas 10,521]

5 hours ago, Goofyboy said:

Apparently Alpine has an overweight, slow car and they can’t figure out a path forward

 

4 hours ago, deft said:

They need to fire Otmar and figure this out

Car has the same traits as its team principal. 

[Native Horn 3,510]

9 hours ago, deft said:

They need to fire Otmar and figure this out

Uh....

Or maybe that's the joke.

[NoName 16,369]

[dieucla98 2,942]

You could replace Horner with Sporty Spice and Max is still going to win by 15s.

[ConferenceRoom 6,145]

[NoName 16,369]

1 hour ago, ConferenceRoom said:

the new conspiracy theory here is that Red Bull GmbH is who conducted the investigation and not RBR so it's not "real" lol

...but RBR never started, conducted, or finished an investigation. nor could they have done so considering that Horner is the leader of RBR.

people are dumb

[faps 806]

What a wild offseason, Steiner's firing, the Andretti debacle, Hammy to Ferrari and this Horner shit. Glad it's RAWE CEEK, boyz.

[texas08 1,599]

Let’s go!

[aggie08 21,514]

6 hours ago, dieucla98 said:

You could replace Horner with Sporty Spice and Max is still going to win by 15s.

I'd watch that season of Drive to Survive. Binged the latest season, and Red Bull barely gets any screen time during the most dominant season in F1 history. Max is a boring machine.

[wood 11,236]

Wow, if you ever thought James Vowles was super boring and devoid of anything resembling a personality, just wait until you see Ep. 4. It's worse than I had ever imagined.

[ConferenceRoom 6,145]

I’m not watching DTS. What happened? 

[wood 11,236]

23 minutes ago, ConferenceRoom said:

I’m not watching DTS. What happened? 

It's not one thing. The guy just has zero personality. Dry and lifeless AF, and his employees seem to tune him out 100%, including Albon. They all look like they're thinking "Someone please shoot me". He met with Albon and was telling him how they were on the rise and would be fighting for championships soon. The look on Albon's face was like "Eh ... ok". He was having to fight back the laughter.

Edited February 29 by wood

[wood 11,236]

Driver's Press Conference

 

[TexEx15 17,564]

Danny Ric tops FP1. Interesting. Curious to see where that goes.

[ChickenSandwich 9,848]

Max has a new sponsor on the top of his sidepods lol

 

 

[NoName 16,369]

Athletic: Who will rule F1 in 2024? Our predictions for champions, biggest surprises and more

 

Quote

Most improved team

LS: RB — I think the steps forward seen through the backend of last year from the artist formerly known as AlphaTauri will continue going into the new season, putting it ahead of the Williams/Alfa Romeo/Haas gaggle it spent last year mired within. Closer ties to Red Bull — which are drawing scrutiny from McLaren in particular — and fresh management should help. The buzz around the team is positive right now.

MC: RB — New year, new name and new leadership beyond just team principal Laurent Mekies. Although the team appeared to be making steps in the late stages of 2023, Mekies does expect the beginning part of the year to be difficult, but “we equally know that we are putting together the foundations in order to hit a development rate that will allow us to compete with the guys we want to compete with.” According to team CEO Peter Bayer, the goal is to “be a competitor on the grid at the top of the midfield.”

PI: Mercedes — I feel like everyone will say RB, so I’ll zig to their zags. In this case, ‘most improved’ means consistently qualifying/racing in the top three and claiming at least one win. In other words, an improved Mercedes will look like Mercedes again. That makes for a better fight up front.

AD: Williams — No, I don’t expect Williams to do better than P7 in the constructors’ standings in 2024. But I do think the team will strengthen its grip on its position as best of the rest. As James Vowles enters his sophomore year as team principal and Logan Sargeant looks to improve on a rough rookie season, I expect Williams to be more consistently in the hunt for points.

 

 

full:

 

Spoiler

Who will rule F1 in 2024? Our predictions for champions, biggest surprises and more

By The Athletic

4h ago

 

17

 

---

The 2024 Formula One season is finally upon us, as the Bahrain Grand Prix kicks off this weekend (a handy reminder that qualifying is on Friday and the race on Saturday). We’ve watched a lot of team launches, heard a lot of talk about better training and car improvements, and seen the cars get on track in pre-season testing.

Now, we’ll finally get to see what they can do when points are on the line. Which means now is the time for the members of The Athletic’s F1 team to stake out our positions on what we expect to see over the next 24 race weekends. Read on to see our picks (and justifications) for who’ll finish on top, who’ll make the most progress, who’ll surprise us all, and just how dominant Red Bull and Max Verstappen will prove to be.

Let us know your thoughts and your own predictions in the comments before lights out on Saturday at 10 a.m. ET (3 p.m. GMT).

Constructors’ podium

Luke Smith: Red Bull, Mercedes, Ferrari — While I think both Ferrari and Mercedes have made decent progress with their cars over the winter, and should be in slightly better shape for this season, there’s simply no stopping Red Bull going into this season. Ferrari looks a bit quicker for now, but Mercedes has shown an ability to make bigger steps over a season in the past couple of years, so I’ll tip it to pip Ferrari to P2.

Madeline Coleman: Red Bull, Ferrari, Mercedes — All three teams may have made design changes to their respective cars, but I expect Red Bull to run away with the title again. I’m more intrigued by the battle for second, given how close the Silver Arrows and Prancing Horse were by year’s end in 2023.

Pat Iversen: Red Bull, Ferrari, Mercedes — The first team needs no explanation. The only question is whether the other two teams listed here steal a win or two from Red Bull. Ferrari has two things going for it: A quicker car and two hungry drivers (Charles Leclerc hasn’t won in 32 races, Carlos Sainz is racing with a chip on his shoulder). I think Ferrari will battle Mercedes for P2 again this season, and this time, the edge goes to the team on a more consistently upward trajectory.

Alex Davies: Red Bull, Mercedes, McLaren — It seems both Mercedes and Ferrari made solid strides over the winter, while McLaren has been more circumspect. But 1) Lando Norris persistently negs himself, which for me undercuts his outspoken lack of confidence; 2) I can’t get McLaren’s brilliant second half of the year out of my mind. I think the British team squeaks by Ferrari in the end.

 

Madeline sees Sergio Pérez, Max Verstappen and Charles Leclerc (not in that order) as the top three drivers at the end of the year. (Mark Thompson/Getty Images)

Drivers’s podium

LS: Max Verstappen, George Russell, Charles Leclerc — Verstappen winning the title is a given, I think, but behind him I reckon it could be quite close. I’m going to say Russell and Leclerc both win a couple of races to get P2 and P3 in the standings, respectively.

MC: Max Verstappen, Sergio Pérez, Charles Leclerc — Verstappen is a force to be reckoned with and shows no signs of slowing down. The question is whether Pérez can correct his qualifying performance.

PI: Max Verstappen, Sergio Pérez, Carlos Sainz — I think Leclerc will end his win famine this season, but Sainz will win twice. Max will do Max things, but not as Max-y as last year. And, for reasons I’ll get into later on, I think his teammate won’t be so far behind him this time.

AD: Max Verstappen, Sergio Pérez, Lando Norris — See my argument above regarding how I feel about McLaren coming into 2024. But I see no reason the two Red Bull drivers won’t once again take P1 and P2.

Red Bull win total

LS: 20 — Ferrari and Mercedes may be close enough to snare some wins from the rare Red Bull slip-ups, but nothing to make a serious dent in its total.

MC: 21 — I can’t imagine a clean sweep for Red Bull because this is the longest season in F1 history. That’s asking for a lot, both from a sustainability and reliability standpoint.

PI: 19. Call it wishful thinking (it is), but the law of bad luck comes back around for everyone — even Red Bull. Surely. Right?

AD: 22 —  What really galls me here is that if Red Bull wins 22 of this year’s 24 grands prix, it will represent a step backward from last year.

Max Verstappen win total

LS: 19 — I say he matches the tally from last year and leaves only the scraps for Pérez.

MC: 19 — There’s no question about Verstappen’s talent, but it is a tall order to ask one driver to be near perfect every race weekend. Some tracks are more difficult to pass on, and even the slightest misstep could keep him — or anyone — off pole.

PI: 17 — See above.

AD: 20 — Working off my estimated 22 wins for Red Bull, this means two wins for Pérez, matching his haul from last year. That feels about right.

Surprise pole

LS: Oscar Piastri — Through McLaren’s upswing last year, Piastri really found his feet and started to get a better idea of how to get the very most out of his F1 car. I think he’ll be a step closer to Lando Norris this year. It’ll require McLaren to make a big step forward from where it starts 2024 though.

MC: Lando Norris — Throughout the second half of last season, you could feel he was knocking on the door for his first pole position since 2021 and closer to his first F1 win. If McLaren has as competitive of a car as it did last year, it’s only a matter of time for this rising star.

PI: Daniel Ricciardo — The last ‘surprise’ pole in F1 was Kevin Magnussen for Haas at the 2022 São Paulo GP. Haas finished eighth in the constructors’ that season. I feel okay listing Ricciardo as my surprise pole with that precedent. We’ve already seen him be pretty quick in this car at qualifying in Mexico City last year, and he looked comfortable (and fast) during testing. Why not one pole this season before RB inevitably finishes P8 in the standings?

AD: Oscar Piastri — Hey, he qualified on pole for the sprint race in Qatar, no reason the young Australian can’t do it for the GP at some point this season. I’ll even tack on another prediction: When he does take pole, he’ll be super chill about it.

 

Alpine’s Pierre Gasly is Pat’s pick for surprise podium in 2024. (Andrej ISAKOVIC / AFP)

Surprise podium

LS: Daniel Ricciardo — RB went under the radar a bit through testing, I think, and could be in the mix for decent points from the very start in 2024. It’ll take a lot to fall into Ricciardo’s hands for this to happen but I reckon he could get back on the rostrum.

MC: Daniel Ricciardo — The emphasis is on ‘surprise’ here because, admittedly, this is a longshot just by how the team looked last year and how far ahead the top half of the grid is. However, I do think Ricciardo could be a wild card, depending on RB’s development this season.

PI: Pierre Gasly — I define a “surprise podium” as “Esteban Ocon finishing 3rd at Monaco in 2023.” That was a surprise. Alpine was a mess last year – and I’m pretty sure they’ll be a messier mess in 2024. So let’s go with Pierre Gasly nabbing a podium after everyone in front of him wrecks (safely! unharmed!) during a red flag restart at, like, Las Vegas.

AD: Alex Albon — Yes, it’ll take some chaos. Yes, this only happens if Williams has improved its car and continues to do so. Yes, Albon’s best finish last year was P7 (at Montreal and Monza). But we’re talking surprises here! I think it can happen. OK, maybe it’ll take a bunch of chaos.

Most improved team

LS: RB — I think the steps forward seen through the backend of last year from the artist formerly known as AlphaTauri will continue going into the new season, putting it ahead of the Williams/Alfa Romeo/Haas gaggle it spent last year mired within. Closer ties to Red Bull — which are drawing scrutiny from McLaren in particular — and fresh management should help. The buzz around the team is positive right now.

MC: RB — New year, new name and new leadership beyond just team principal Laurent Mekies. Although the team appeared to be making steps in the late stages of 2023, Mekies does expect the beginning part of the year to be difficult, but “we equally know that we are putting together the foundations in order to hit a development rate that will allow us to compete with the guys we want to compete with.” According to team CEO Peter Bayer, the goal is to “be a competitor on the grid at the top of the midfield.”

PI: Mercedes — I feel like everyone will say RB, so I’ll zig to their zags. In this case, ‘most improved’ means consistently qualifying/racing in the top three and claiming at least one win. In other words, an improved Mercedes will look like Mercedes again. That makes for a better fight up front.

AD: Williams — No, I don’t expect Williams to do better than P7 in the constructors’ standings in 2024. But I do think the team will strengthen its grip on its position as best of the rest. As James Vowles enters his sophomore year as team principal and Logan Sargeant looks to improve on a rough rookie season, I expect Williams to be more consistently in the hunt for points.

 

Alex thinks George Russell’s new leadership role at Mercedes will translate to improved performance. (Clive Mason/Getty Images)

Most improved driver

LS: Yuki Tsunoda — The raw pace we’ve all seen from Tsunoda seemed a little more honed through the first half of last year, only for mistakes to set in later in the season (Mexico being a prime example). I’ll tip him to make another step this year and become a bit more well-rounded, offering a decent challenge to Ricciardo over the year.

MC: Logan Sargeant — It’s no secret that the American driver struggled during his rookie season, but he trained throughout the offseason, put on more weight and looked stronger during preseason testing. After finishing 21st in last season’s driver rankings, the only way is up.

PI: Sergio Pérez — Odd to say that about the guy who finished second last season, but here we are. By the end of last season, Pérez had started to lay his qualifying demons to rest. That’s a bad sign for the rest of the grid. I expect that trend to continue: We’ll see a more consistent Checo get more from the dominant Red Bull in 2024.

AD: George Russell — A funny thing will happen over the course of 2024: Lewis Hamilton will cede his leadership position at Mercedes to Russell. There’s no direct line between that process and what happens on the track, but I think the ‘promotion’ and increased responsibility will translate to more points for Russell and a higher finish than last year’s P8.

DTS Season 7 preview moment

LS: Hamilton’s Mercedes exit — It has to be, right? For how much focus was placed on his decision to stay at Mercedes in season six, it’ll be a prime story for season seven, hopefully from the very first episode.

MC: Sargeant’s comeback story — After chatting with Sargeant at Williams’s season launch at New York, I’m willing to buy into the preseason hype. His demeanor seemed different, more confident, than last season, and he even said, “It’s just been nice to, I guess, kind of find myself again.”

PI: DTS Season 7 ends with Lewis Hamilton wearing that red Ferrari firesuit … and then cuts to Carlos Sainz sitting in front of the cameras with a Mercedes hat on.

AD: Lewis Hamilton claps on the red overalls for the first time. No, this won’t happen during the season, but it will be the main storyline going into 2025, and seeing Hamilton officially shift from Mercedes to Ferrari will be its first marquee moment.

 

Edited February 29 by NoName

[dieucla98 2,942]

1 hour ago, TexEx15 said:

Danny Ric tops FP1. Interesting. Curious to see where that goes.

He was running the softs which I think of the potential top 4 teams, only McLaren did that as well and Danny Ric's time was later in the day once the track was more rubbered in. Still was an impressive time but I'm not reading much into it other than he's faster than Yuki.

[Native Horn 3,510]

9 hours ago, wood said:

It's not one thing. The guy just has zero personality. Dry and lifeless AF, and his employees seem to tune him out 100%, including Albon. They all look like they're thinking "Someone please shoot me". He met with Albon and was telling him how they were on the rise and would be fighting for championships soon. The look on Albon's face was like "Eh ... ok". He was having to fight back the laughter.

Agree with this assessment.  Will say, though, that I enjoy when he is interviewed mid-race because he seems to have so much more technical knowledge than other team principals that they interview.  Too bad Wiliams will always be behind mid-pack.

[dieucla98 2,942]

Well... This practice session is giving a lot more hope than testing did. Surely the RB isn't running THAT weak of an engine mode two sessions in a row, right? Max is 0.5s slower than Ham on a supposed quali sim run and 4 drivers between the two of them. 

[Mittens 8,296]

Are we going to have a legit fight this year?

[Anton Chigurh 3,319]

A bomb has been dropped.

[Levi 2,592]

3 minutes ago, Anton Chigurh said:

A bomb has been dropped.