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Week 14, 2023, Texas v Washington, College Football Playoff Edition

Wulaw Horn

By Wulaw Horn
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Posted by alphahydro,

I haven't watched enough Washington games to say anything useful about matchups, schemes, etc.  So I pulled some stats while I was bored.  TL;DR - I looked at Wash's results against teams roughly as good as Texas and vice versa (based on stats I pulled over the past week while i was bored. You may or may not think these stats are relevant). Based on the stats I pulled for Texas, UW, and each team's 2023 opponents: Assuming the Pac-12 and Big XII are pretty similar, the stats I
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Alien Octopus

Alien Octopus 516

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Posted
17 hours ago, Beau Vine said:

But the thing is, people didn't regularly use the term "dial up" when rotary phones were a thing.  And now, there is not one single football announcer who can talk about a blitz without using the phrase.

Thought this was a term brought to us by the precursor of internet ie. Modems and interlinked BBS.

Child of the 70/80s and a terror on my Apple IIe 

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Daichee Bell

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15 hours ago, EsophagealFeces said:

The sad part is that I don’t know if this is a weak attempt at trolling, or if you’re one of the many sub room temp IQ Texas fans I’ve heard so much about.

Uh, this is Texas, not Washington. It was 130° in my room last night. Can’t wait for winter. 

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Gut Wagon

Gut Wagon 8065

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9 hours ago, Sundodger said:

True fact.  Enjoy those coaches that failed at Washington.

I'm not normally one to get dragged into petty spit-wad fights, but now you're just begging me to ask: If these coaches "failed" at UW but were successful elsewhere, were the coaches themselves the actual problem? 

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JesusSweatDuck

JesusSweatDuck 17781

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Posted
1 hour ago, bejezuz said:

It's almost as bad as what they do to Mexican food.  

As someone who had to live up there for a few years, this hits close to home. Absolutely zero Mexican or BBQ (of any type) worth eating.

 

Also, DeBoer will be coaching in Columbus at a real blue blood when Day jumps ship

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texifornia

texifornia 56869

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22 minutes ago, Chuckie Finster said:

 

Fuck Kurt, but this is an incredible piece of data.  We've trailed for less than 7 minutes since Oklahoma.  How was this stat not blasted all over the country as a rebut to the "Texas has declined throughout the season" narrative?

Did those wins against Houston and K-State feel dominant to you, despite us winning the whole team? It's an incomplete stat.

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Bolero88

Bolero88 277

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8 minutes ago, texifornia said:

Did those wins against Houston and K-State feel dominant to you, despite us winning the whole team? It's an incomplete stat.

The win against K-State was pretty fucking good considering Murphy was our QB. Houston was a complete shit show. 

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troph

troph 24781

Posted
Posted (edited)

my view of the game:

1. Unpredictability factor - I think Texas is on schedule or a year early tbqh. This is uncharted territory for the entire team (5-7 / 8-5 / 12-1). That said, the leaders of this team are ballers and that includes a sophomore QB. But 18-22 year olds, who knows. A month to get cocky, a month to get motivated, a month to get in trouble, a month to get healthy, a month to scheme. Those are huge wild cards.  How will the kids respond? How will the coaches attack. PK can "dial up" some bad mother fucker schemes. See Alabama. Sark is a known quantity here. But tendencies matter and Sark has his issues with pedantic adherence to play calls like 4 straight runs at the 1 (insane no calls notwithstanding) against OU. We've had plenty of red zone problems. We did see changes against Tech and oSu on short yardage so that's a wildcard too. Another wild card - officiating. Texas will not have to deal with a Big 12 crew. That bodes very well for the Horns on both sides of the ball. All of this to say, I would not bet on this game, too many wildcards and unknowns when you really take a step back.

 

2. Texas run defense - game is over if we don't stop the run. Good news, no Texas fan should be worried. No one has run on Texas. The Horns have the top rated DT rotation in the country and Sweat has been so dominate he even made an appearance in the Heisman polling. Our stats show better for opponents than how the games really played out and yet Texas is still one of the best against the run. Washington fans think they will have no problem because "last year". Be confident, don't care, had sex last night. And don't care, everyone has said the same thing. Sweat is immovable. Murphy is a fucking machine. The speed on the edge and the scheme (as my pedestrian eyes see it) pushes the run back to the inside and the big guys eat it up. Ford and Ant Hill are great in supporting Sweat/Murphy and co. Could WA get their RBs in space on the outside? Sure. When they do, will they have success? Sure. Will they have success consistently in the run game, enough to rely on it? They could, but all statistical analysis, all game output to date suggests that is actually not likely.  I suspect Washington's coaching staff has a view more similar to ours than their fans.

 

3. Texas defense on first down // Texas defense on third down - I think this is where the game is decided.  if Washington stays ahead of the chains, Texas is in deep shit (same can be said for Washington's defense vs. Texas offense). And Washington will score points and will have several sustained drives and probably some big plays too. Each time that happens, discard, forget and line up again.  The game within the game is having enough opportunities to put the pressure on Penix (more so than he's used to and require that he alone perform). If Texas can get into obvious passing downs after stopping the run, then Hill, Sorrell, Burke can pin their ears back - and I think this group has what it takes to get their sacks. Texas gets more than 3 sacks (see Alabama / Texas had 5) and Texas is well on the way to a win. As for winning first down, I would expect at least 1/3 of the time, Texas can do this. Missed execution in the passing game (it will happen), run stuffed, penalty, sack, whatever it may be. 2/3 of the time I suspect Washington will have a solid gain, a run, pass, defensive penalty, etc. Will that be enough? Can Texas get into situational third and long and execute?  Executing on third and long and first and ten will require pressure and stopping the run. Let's see what happens, but situational opportunities will turn this game. The more third and longs we get, the better Texas will fare. So I will not only watch for third down conversion rates for Washington but maybe more importantly, how many third downs does Washington have to play from (and within that set how many are third and long). The more (to a degree) the better chance Texas has to stop them. That is the crux of the contest when it comes to Texas D vs. Washington O. 

 

4. Texas offense - Look, I've seen Washington play. They play physical defense... for a Pac-12 team. OU and Alabama are probably more physical than what Washington will bring (can't wait for idoits that know nothing about Texas OU to come in here telling me I'm wrong about that). And we aren't going to get any bonus points for "murderer's row" but we took everyone's best shot this year and once you get past the obvious OU and Alabama teams, teams like KSU and Iowa State, the core of that daunting gauntlet, are also physical football teams. Washington is a much better team than those two as an example, but physicality is just not something that is going to keep me up on this one.  Texas pass pro is legit, someone in the OL thread posted championship week we had 3 of the top 5 graded linemen - and that's with two sophomores, 1 junior and 2 seniors (check my math). Simply not worried at all. Doesn't mean it won't be a battle, but I think Washington will have to bring pressure to overwhelm the Texas OL in pass pro. If Washington gets 3-4 sacks, maybe. But that pressure will put Texas in a position to take advantage whether it's screens and runs or the long ball.  Texas will run the ball, Texas will pass the ball. QE and Baxter/Blue/KRob will get their yards and Texas will get its points. Where Texas can lose this on offense is the 3rd quarter disappearing Houdini act, or Quinn starting slow, or turnovers. But on paper, Texas O should cruise and score 35+ points.

 

5. Turnovers/special teams - This could help either team balance out the success or lack thereof on points 3 or 4. Texas gets a timely INT, it won't matter if Penix threw for 300 yards. Washington gets an INT it won't matter Texas defense was winning first down to get third and long.  Same with X on the punt returns, KRob on KO and punt block teams. I'm sure Washington will try to get theirs too.  Obviously a wild card as well.

 

6. Washington hurry up ? - will Washington try and emulate OU's offense with the no huddle hurry up? Quite frankly it's the only offense that has beaten Texas all year. If you can keep the Texas DL rotation from happening on schedule you can gas our DTs or keep Sweat/Murphy out of key downs. It will be interesting to see if Washington tries to change or just stays to their strength. Some have said they hurry up to the line to call the play but that's not the same as a full tilt hurry up offense. Could be another wild card factor.

 

I don't know who wins, I think points 1 and 5 (maybe 6) make it impossible to know. But when watching, to me it's about Texas defense creating as many third and longs as possible and on offense staying in attack mode and executing well. Texas wins third down like it has all year (best in the nation), Texas wins.  Penix converts on third downs more often than not - or better for him - avoids too many third downs all together and Washington wins.

 

Queue up Washington fans telling us Penix is all world, best third down passer in the history, Texas doesn't stand a chance, Washington will run for 250 yards, Texas is arrogant, fans are stupid, queers and steers, Sark is a drunk, whatever the fuck, don't care.

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Modessit

Modessit 5598

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Posted

About 3 years ago we took a 34-day camping trip (with a couple hotels at certain spots) around all 13 of the continental western states (excluding Alaska) and 3 of those days were spent in Washington state. It just so happened that there was a major heat wave going on and it was 108° the day we arrived in Seattle. The entire fucking city shut down. Even the MEXICAN RESTAURANTS were closed! I was asking, "Have they ever been to Mexico?" In Texas, people would be sitting outside drinking Margaritas. They were like, "Yeah, but we're not used to it. You guys have air conditioning." Do you think we shut down if our air conditioning breaks? Nope. We open doors and windows and use fans.

What I learned is that most Washington residents are pussies, and we're going to kick their ass.

/csb

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troph

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6 minutes ago, Modessit said:

About 3 years ago we took a 34-day camping trip (with a couple hotels at certain spots) around all 13 of the continental western states (excluding Alaska) and 3 of those days were spent in Washington state. It just so happened that there was a major heat wave going on and it was 108° the day we arrived in Seattle. The entire fucking city shut down. Even the MEXICAN RESTAURANTS were closed! I was asking, "Have they ever been to Mexico?" In Texas, people would be sitting outside drinking Margaritas. They were like, "Yeah, but we're not used to it. You guys have air conditioning." Do you think we shut down if our air conditioning breaks? Nope. We open doors and windows and use fans.

What I learned is that most Washington residents are pussies, and we're going to kick their ass.

/csb

don't know about you, but we GTFO of Texas when it's 108, but you can call me a pussy anytime, wouldn't bother me one bit as I bring in another trophy trout on a cool summer day. But see that's smarts, another reason why Texas win. we're smart. they are dumb / my attempt at copying WA fan analysis.

 

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ztejas

ztejas 43412

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5 minutes ago, WilburHooksHand said:

Texas allowed 80 ypg rushing (3rd) and 240 ypg passing (95th)

Utah allowed 84 ypg rushing (4th) and 224 ypg passing (64th)

they aren’t all that different defensively 

Y'all are in for a rude fucking awakening if you think Texas with a month off is going to be like playing Utah. 

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WilburHooksHand

WilburHooksHand 28

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Gut Wagon said:

I'm not normally one to get dragged into petty spit-wad fights, but now you're just begging me to ask: If these coaches "failed" at UW but were successful elsewhere, were the coaches themselves the actual problem? 

PK didn’t fail we love PK.

1 minute ago, ztejas said:

Y'all are in for a rude fucking awakening if you think Texas with a month off is going to be like playing Utah. 

sounds good

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Valmy77

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Posted
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8 minutes ago, WilburHooksHand said:

Texas allowed 80 ypg rushing (3rd) and 240 ypg passing (95th)

Utah allowed 84 ypg rushing (4th) and 224 ypg passing (64th)

they aren’t all that different defensively 

You are correct.

Though I am intrigued about Sweat and Murphy playing in a game where the refs potentially just won't allow them to be tackled by their jerseys all game. The Big 12 just doesn't call holding in order to pump up offensive stats so it is exciting when we get another conference's refs.

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Codaxx

Codaxx 5729

Posted
Posted (edited)
17 minutes ago, WilburHooksHand said:

Texas allowed 80 ypg rushing (3rd) and 240 ypg passing (95th)

Utah allowed 84 ypg rushing (4th) and 224 ypg passing (64th)

they aren’t all that different defensively 

 

Texas gives up 4.98 yards per play 16th in the nation

Utah is 5.48 and 48th in the country.. 

 

Texas gives up 1.45 pts per drive the in the country

Utah is at 1.84 and 29th in the country

 

Texas 2.87 yards per rush 5th in nation vs 3.22 and 15th for Utah

Texas 6.7 yards/att (29th) vs Utah 7.0 (46th)

Total yards doesnt factor in pace of play. Utah defense sees about 90% of the plays Texas sees. 

Edited by Codaxx
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WilburHooksHand

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Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Valmy77 said:

You are correct.

Though I am intrigued about Sweat and Murphy playing in a game where the refs potentially just won't allow them to be tackled by their jerseys all game. The Big 12 just doesn't call holding in order to pump up offensive stats so it is exciting when we get another conference's refs.

Yeah I’m not saying Texas is bad here I’m just saying it’s not like Washington hasn’t been able to run effectively on another good run defense. I’m not coming out of left field here, I am from Houston and I live in Austin. I’ve seen both of these teams play all year and I don’t think many other people can say that. Washington is just way better than people think and lot of assumptions about them are just flat out wrong, I’ll leave it at that. 

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Valmy77

Valmy77 13225

Posted
Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, WilburHooksHand said:

Yeah I’m not saying Texas is bad here I’m just saying it’s not like Washington hasn’t been able to run effectively on another good run defense. I’m not coming out of left field here, I am from Houston and I live in Austin. I’ve seen both of these teams play all year and I don’t think many other people can say that. Washington is just way better than people think and lot of assumptions about them are just flat out wrong, I’ll leave it at that. 

Washington is really good and beating them would be Texas' biggest win since 2006. So yeah...kind of a big deal.

And I don't think we match up well with them on defense at all. But maybe Murphy and Sweat being allowed to rush without being held will make a difference. We'll see.

Edited by Valmy77
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WilburHooksHand

WilburHooksHand 28

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, WilburHooksHand said:

Yeah I’m not saying Texas is bad here I’m just saying it’s not like Washington hasn’t been able to run effectively on another good run defense. I’m not coming out of left field here, I am from Houston and I live in Austin. I’ve seen both of these teams play all year and I don’t think many other people can say that. Washington is just way better than people think and lot of assumptions about them are just flat out wrong, I’ll leave it at that. 

Also if they call holding trice is gonna get held every play too. I know that dude posted a PFF ranking to show sweat on there but it’s funny there is a Washington guy right above him.

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Fumbles

Fumbles 299

Posted
Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, WilburHooksHand said:

Yeah I’m not saying Texas is bad here I’m just saying it’s not like Washington hasn’t been able to run effectively on another good run defense. I’m not coming out of left field here, I am from Houston and I live in Austin. I’ve seen both of these teams play all year and I don’t think many other people can say that. Washington is just way better than people think and lot of assumptions about them are just flat out wrong, I’ll leave it at that. 

The stats say Washington is 51st in the nation in yards per carry, and that’s with opposing defenses keeping safeties back to deal with Penix and pals.  That’s just not impressive, I don’t care what you’ve seen.

Edited by Fumbles
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Codaxx

Codaxx 5729

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, WilburHooksHand said:

Also if they call holding trice is gonna get held every play too. I know that dude posted a PFF ranking to show sweat on there but it’s funny there is a Washington guy right above him.

That will be a good match-up.. I am not sure how good the guards are for Washignton, but Trice is likely going against Banks. Banks is a projected 1st round OT in next year's draft. 

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texifornia

texifornia 56869

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, WilburHooksHand said:

Also if they call holding trice is gonna get held every play too. I know that dude posted a PFF ranking to show sweat on there but it’s funny there is a Washington guy right above him.

Hah, no, it was because both were on there. Otherwise I'd have done it in the thread about Sweat.

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WilburHooksHand

WilburHooksHand 28

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Codaxx said:

That will be a good match-up.. I am not sure how good the guards are for Washignton, but Trice is likely going against Banks. Banks is a projected 1st round OT in next year's draft. 

We know who he is we all laughed at his oregon decommit lol. Washington’s line is very good but the strengths are the tackles and center. Guards are still good but I wouldn’t say elite. Probably need to slide some things around. Tackles and Center are extremely good.

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closetojumping

closetojumping 62567

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, WilburHooksHand said:

Yeah I’m not saying Texas is bad here I’m just saying it’s not like Washington hasn’t been able to run effectively on another good run defense. I’m not coming out of left field here, I am from Houston and I live in Austin. I’ve seen both of these teams play all year and I don’t think many other people can say that. Washington is just way better than people think and lot of assumptions about them are just flat out wrong, I’ll leave it at that. 

Most of the non-idiots on this board, and, look, we know there are a bunch of idiots here, but the non-idiots view UW as an excellent team worthy of their ranking. Those views are littered throughout various threads from the summer to now on this board. There are plenty of us who expect an excellent game between two damned good teams.

4 minutes ago, WilburHooksHand said:

Also if they call holding trice is gonna get held every play too. I know that dude posted a PFF ranking to show sweat on there but it’s funny there is a Washington guy right above him.

It may not obvious, but this is a running thread leading up to the game about everything happening in the longhorn camp, for players, coaches, media takes, injuries, awards, whatever. Washington discussions and analyses as well.

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