Game Week Thread Week 14, 2023, Texas v Washington, College Football Playoff Edition

[Alien Octopus 516]

On 12/6/2023 at 9:50 PM, Rimbo said:

 

 

Where is the Eagle?

[Js1 85372]

1 hour ago, troph said:

re this idea that Texas fans are overlooking Michigan ... and frankly Washington (fans) overlooking Texas...

 

Re the Michigan match up:

I think many think Texas matches up well with Michigan because our D strength matched up with their O strength and Michigan does not have a heisman caliber QB to torch our secondary. I think the assumption is if our weakest link is not exposed we can be truly dominate on D. I suspect that's largely true. The Michigan match up is basically strength on strength, not strength on weakness (unlike the Washington match up).

I think most overlook Michigan's D matched up with our O. Many are assuming that our O is our strength, and to that point Sark can game plan for 30 points against their D and boom we win.  That's the oversight on our part. That is very much an unknown fact IMO. But I don't see anyone assuming Texas walks all over Michigan.

Re the Washington match up:

The Washington match up is strength on weakness, not strength on strength and our fan base is probably more sure about strength on strength.  Clearly Washington fans see their strength on our weakness (their passing game versus our secondary) and are failing to see Texas' strengths are a major issue for them. Texas will stop the Washington run game. Texas will score at least 30 points. Both of those Texas strengths match up very well with Washington. Washington fans completely dismiss that and then focus on Penix vs. our secondary which is a huge reason why they should be confident.

Yeah at no point do I think UM is a cakewalk, but our strength on defense (run D) against their strength on offense (Corum) tilts in our favor.

They also play in the B1G, which is full of some shitty offenses.  They gave up 24 to Maryland and Ohio State.  I do think we could score 30+ easily on UM with the way our offense is clicking.  Shut down Corum, score, we win. 

[ztejas 43467]

I think Michigan is better than UW and I think they're going to beat Bama. 

[BurntEyes 6000]

1 hour ago, closetojumping said:

You should show us where all of these posters are calling Michigan a cakewalk. Not one idiot, because that’s not what your post implies. If there’s a group of posters on here declaring Michigan a cakewalk, that would be interesting to read. 

It was primarily in the thread prior to the committees decision. Cake walk isn't exactly what was said, but strongly implied. I suppose I could go look them up, but I'm okay with you thinking me full of shit. I'm admittedly an idiot after all.

[BurntEyes 6000]

1 hour ago, Park Gothic said:

I haven't seen anyone say UM is a cakewalk, just that they are a better matchup for us than UW because the passing game and our secondary. 

That was the bulk of it. Maybe I am just making shit up, but that didn't seem to be the Tobe.

I actually do disagree on the match up, I think Michigan is a tougher win and better than Bama or Washington. However, I do understand the match aspect vs our D for sure though. Mostly I think Washington had a shitty D and know Michigan has a strong run D which could cause us issues.

I hope to find out and I really wasn't trying to incite a debate, just reflecting the impression I got.

Edited December 8, 2023 by BurntEyes

[BurntEyes 6000]

1 hour ago, troph said:

re this idea that Texas fans are overlooking Michigan ... and frankly Washington (fans) overlooking Texas...

 

Re the Michigan match up:

I think many think Texas matches up well with Michigan because our D strength matched up with their O strength and Michigan does not have a heisman caliber QB to torch our secondary. I think the assumption is if our weakest link is not exposed we can be truly dominate on D. I suspect that's largely true. The Michigan match up is basically strength on strength, not strength on weakness (unlike the Washington match up).

I think most overlook Michigan's D matched up with our O. Many are assuming that our O is our strength, and to that point Sark can game plan for 30 points against their D and boom we win.  That's the oversight on our part. That is very much an unknown fact IMO. But I don't see anyone assuming Texas walks all over Michigan.

Re the Washington match up:

The Washington match up is strength on weakness, not strength on strength and our fan base is probably more sure about strength on strength.  Clearly Washington fans see their strength on our weakness (their passing game versus our secondary) and are failing to see Texas' strengths are a major issue for them. Texas will stop the Washington run game. Texas will score at least 30 points. Both of those Texas strengths match up very well with Washington. Washington fans completely dismiss that and then focus on Penix vs. our secondary which is a huge reason why they should be confident.

This is how I view it as well, and you clarify it far better than I. So thanks!

[Dahobbs 17615]

22 minutes ago, BurntEyes said:

That was the bulk of it. Maybe I am just making shit up, but that didn't seem to be the Tobe.

I actually do disagree on the match up, I think Michigan is a tougher win and better than Bama or Washington. However, I do understand the match aspect vs our D for sure though. Mostly I think Washington had a shitty D and know Michigan has a strong run D which could cause us issues.

I hope to find out and I really wasn't trying to incite a debate, just reflecting the impression I got.

I think you're misreading it a bit. The way I see it is that there is higher volatility/variability with the Washington matchup than the Michigan matchup. I roughly know what kind of game to expect from our matchup with Michigan given the strength on strength situation. I expect it would be fairly similar to our game against Alabama with one team or another taking a late lead. I wouldn't expect a blowout either way. With Washington, the strength on weakness matchup for both teams creates a lot of possible outcomes. We could blow out Washington if our D plays similar to last year, but cleans up the run game better by playing more disciplined. On the other hand, if our offense goes into one of the funks it has been known to do or if our D plays passively, trying to read and react, we could get blown out. I don't think that is as likely as us dominating, but it is possible. Washington is a puncher's chance type of team because of its offense, and I always hate playing those teams because there is a higher element of chance in the outcome. Frankly, you see that in their SP+ rating and in their post-game predicted chance to win in a lot of their games.  Michigan is the better team between them. But Washington is scarier because of that random chance element. 

Edited December 8, 2023 by Dahobbs

[utee94 15830]

I think all 4 teams in the CFP deserve their spots, I think they ARE the 4 best teams in the country right now, and I think any one of them could beat any other.  That's going to make this year's CFP a lot of fun.

It'll obviously be even more fun for us, if the Horns win.  

But if not, it's still been a fantastic season, and one I'll remember fondly forever.  It's not like Texas has been just piling up the football conference championship trophies lately.  This one is special and meaningful.

Now, let's see the team go beat the shit outta U-Dub.

[BurntEyes 6000]

2 minutes ago, utee94 said:

I think all 4 teams in the CFP deserve their spots, I think they ARE the 4 best teams in the country right now, and I think any one of them could beat any other.  That's going to make this year's CFP a lot of fun.

It'll obviously be even more fun for us, if the Horns win.  

But if not, it's still been a fantastic season, and one I'll remember fondly forever.  It's not like Texas has been just piling up the football conference championship trophies lately.  This one is special and meaningful.

Now, let's see the team go beat the shit outta U-Dub.

As usual, you make good points. A bit lost in all the excitement is how great this season has been regardless of what happens in New Orleans and hopefully Houston.

I'm made my prediction here already, and I openly admit, that i think Michigan's uniforms are the second best in the country.

I'd love nothing more than to watch the Storm Troopers take the field against Blue again like I did in the 04 Rose Bowl. 🌹 

Let's fucking go!

[BurntEyes 6000]

10 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

I think you're misreading it a bit. The way I see it is that there is higher volatility/variability with the Washington matchup than the Michigan matchup. I roughly know what kind of game to expect from our matchup with Michigan given the strength on strength situation. I expect it would be fairly similar to our game against Alabama with one team or another taking a late lead. I wouldn't expect a blowout either way. With Washington, the strength on weakness matchup for both teams creates a lot of possible outcomes. We could blow out Washington if our D plays similar to last year, but cleans up the run game better by playing more disciplined. On the other hand, if our offense goes into one of the funks it has been known to do or if our D plays passively, trying to read and react, we could get blown out. I don't think that is as likely as us dominating, but it is possible. Washington is a puncher's chance type of team because of its offense, and I always hate playing those teams because there is a higher element of chance in the outcome. Frankly, you see that in their SP+ rating and in their post-game predicted chance to win in a lot of their games.  Michigan is the better team between them. But Washington is scarier because of that random chance element. 

I think this too is a fair assessment. I guess, deep in my hopelessly hopeful brain I hope Sark keeps the gas pedal all the way down in the 3rd and if so, really do believe we can run away on Washington. I do not think that possible with Michigan nor... Bama (which is the least interesting game to me and possibly the nation). Win yes, runaway no.

[utee94 15830]

4 minutes ago, BurntEyes said:

As usual, you make good points. A bit lost in all the excitement is how great this season has been regardless of what happens in New Orleans and hopefully Houston.

I'm made my prediction here already, and I openly admit, that i think Michigan's uniforms are the second best in the country.

I'd love nothing more than to watch the Storm Troopers take the field against Blue again like I did in the 04 Rose Bowl. 🌹 

Let's fucking go!

Amen brutha!

Like I said earlier, good Lord willing, my dream scenario is that Texas beats Washington in the Sugar Bowl, then Michigan in the championship game, thus claiming the conference championship titles of the B12, SEC, PAC, and B1G.  Then we should challenge Florida State to a game a week later and take the ACC crown, too! 

 

 

[troph 24821]

14 minutes ago, utee94 said:

I think all 4 teams in the CFP deserve their spots, I think they ARE the 4 best teams in the country right now, and I think any one of them could beat any other.  That's going to make this year's CFP a lot of fun.

It'll obviously be even more fun for us, if the Horns win.  

But if not, it's still been a fantastic season, and one I'll remember fondly forever.  It's not like Texas has been just piling up the football conference championship trophies lately.  This one is special and meaningful.

Now, let's see the team go beat the shit outta U-Dub.

I watched the oSu game with my mom, she's pushing 80 and was pissed we didn't keep oSu in the teens. I looked at her and said "mom, we haven't won the conference since 2009, we haven't played in the conference title since 2018. Let's be happy, 49-21 is still an ass-kicking." She huffed, muddled "well, that's true" and went about her disgruntled way ... the Texas way.

[BurntEyes 6000]

3 minutes ago, troph said:

I watched the oSu game with my mom, she's pushing 80 and was pissed we didn't keep oSu in the teens. I looked at her and said "mom, we haven't won the conference since 2009, we haven't played in the conference title since 2018. Let's be happy, 49-21 is still an ass-kicking." She huffed, muddled "well, that's true" and went about her disgruntled way ... the Texas way.

Your mom is a badass boss bitch!! Good for her!!

Edited December 8, 2023 by BurntEyes

[ousux 5597]

Asking the important question here - if we win and Bama wins do we choose to wear icy whites again as the higher seed?

Yes, the stormtrooper look is back to being a strength, not a curse like it was under Charlie and Turtle Tom.

And was also the uniform used in the greatest CFB game ever, so..

[gmr548 16580]

I think all 4 teams in the CFP deserve their spots, I think they ARE the 4 best teams in the country right now, and I think any one of them could beat any other.  That's going to make this year's CFP a lot of fun.
It'll obviously be even more fun for us, if the Horns win.  
But if not, it's still been a fantastic season, and one I'll remember fondly forever.  It's not like Texas has been just piling up the football conference championship trophies lately.  This one is special and meaningful.
Now, let's see the team go beat the shit outta U-Dub.

Yeah, rooting hard for Texas obviously but honestly it’s house money to me at this point. 12-1, leaving no doubt with the final Big 12 title, and a CFP berth is a categorical success for me.

[Valmy77 13238]

3 hours ago, Park Gothic said:

I haven't seen anyone say UM is a cakewalk, just that they are a better matchup for us than UW because the passing game and our secondary. 

Exactly.

Michigan and Bama are going to be tough physical games, but we are better built to play those.

As the OU game (and anytime we had to protect a big lead) shows, our weakness is the air raid type offenses. Washington runs that type of offense.

[BurntOrange&White 39934]

Just now, Valmy77 said:

As the OU game (and anytime we had to protect a big lead) shows, our weakness is the air raid type offenses. Washington runs that type of offense.

No they don't.

[Valmy77 13238]

31 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

Yeah, rooting hard for Texas obviously but honestly it’s house money to me at this point. 12-1, leaving no doubt with the final Big 12 title, and a CFP berth is a categorical success for me.

I am of two minds about this. First, barring a TCU-like or 1991 Cotton Bowl-esque humiliation, this season is already a success. We achieved all of our goals.

However, now that we are here it will be disappointing if we do not take advantage. So yeah if we end up losing to Washington that will suck. Because who knows when we will be back in this position? It might be another 15 years.

[USNALonghorn 5078]

2 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

No they don't.

People just assume that any pass heavy offense is the “air raid”.

[Valmy77 13238]

5 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

No they don't.

It says they do on their wikipedia page: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Washington_Huskies_football_team

Quote

Offensive scheme	Air raid

With that in mind, I watched them play against Washington State and Oregon and I could see it.

But I am not Xs and Os master so you can tell me how I am wrong about that.

Edited December 8, 2023 by Valmy77

[BurntOrange&White 39934]

Just now, Valmy77 said:

It says they do on their wikipedia page: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Washington_Huskies_football_team

And I watched them play against Washington State and Oregon and I could see it.

But I am not Xs and Os master so you can tell me how I am wrong about that.

Nothing about their offense is air raid. 

[Valmy77 13238]

1 minute ago, BurntOrange&White said:

Nothing about their offense is air raid. 

Great!

Explain yourself. What is their offensive scheme then since you know everything about their offense and how none of it is air raid?

[Valmy77 13238]

7 minutes ago, USNALonghorn said:

People just assume that any pass heavy offense is the “air raid”.

I did no such thing.

Before they played Washington State, I looked them up and it said their defense is Multiple 4-2-5 and their offense is Air Raid. Now my source can be, and is probably, wrong but I did not assume.

Edited December 8, 2023 by Valmy77

[BurntOrange&White 39934]

1 minute ago, Valmy77 said:

Great!

Explain yourself. What is their offensive scheme then since you know everything about their offense and how none of it is air raid?

their concepts are more pro style/west coast. They do a lot of stuff similar to us with motions. 

[troph 24821]

1 hour ago, BurntEyes said:

Your mom is a badass boss bitch!! Good for her!!

but we have to suffer through, "I was in school during the Darrell Royal years and we never had any close games, we showed up for the games knowing we were going to kill them." It's every fucking game watching "party" we have.

But I do love her and she's definitely a Number 1 fan.

[BurntEyes 6000]

Just now, troph said:

but we have to suffer through, "I was in school during the Darrell Royal years and we never had any close games, we showed up for the games knowing we were going to kill them." It's every fucking game watching "party" we have.

But I do love her and she's definitely a Number 1 fan.

Just like every oSu Cowboy sings his sad, sad song

Every rose has its thorn

[USNALonghorn 5078]

35 minutes ago, Valmy77 said:

I did no such thing.

Before they played Washington State, I looked them up and it said their defense is Multiple 4-2-5 and their offense is Air Raid. Now my source can be, and is probably, wrong but I did not assume.

Fair enough. Probably just a bad source. Air raid has several concepts on top of leaning towards the pass: wide offensive line splits, RPO concepts, predominantly no huddle, etc...

(I'm no expert either)

[Wulaw Horn 19077]

4 hours ago, troph said:

re this idea that Texas fans are overlooking Michigan ... and frankly Washington (fans) overlooking Texas...

 

Re the Michigan match up:

I think many think Texas matches up well with Michigan because our D strength matched up with their O strength and Michigan does not have a heisman caliber QB to torch our secondary. I think the assumption is if our weakest link is not exposed we can be truly dominate on D. I suspect that's largely true. The Michigan match up is basically strength on strength, not strength on weakness (unlike the Washington match up).

I think most overlook Michigan's D matched up with our O. Many are assuming that our O is our strength, and to that point Sark can game plan for 30 points against their D and boom we win.  That's the oversight on our part. That is very much an unknown fact IMO. But I don't see anyone assuming Texas walks all over Michigan.

Re the Washington match up:

The Washington match up is strength on weakness, not strength on strength and our fan base is probably more sure about strength on strength.  Clearly Washington fans see their strength on our weakness (their passing game versus our secondary) and are failing to see Texas' strengths are a major issue for them. Texas will stop the Washington run game. Texas will score at least 30 points. Both of those Texas strengths match up very well with Washington. Washington fans completely dismiss that and then focus on Penix vs. our secondary which is a huge reason why they should be confident.

I think you have it right.  I also think we might fuck Michigan up big time. 

[troph 24821]

30 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I think you have it right.  I also think we might fuck Michigan up big time. 

I think we can fuck all three of them up big time. I think we likely are in a high scoring close game with Wash and I think we can beat Michigan by 10. But fuck man, 18-22 year olds can do strange things. The fact that QE isn't 5 years older than my sophomore in high school still makes me shake my head in disbelief. 

[Dahobbs 17615]

7 minutes ago, troph said:

I think we can fuck all three of them up big time. I think we likely are in a high scoring close game with Wash and I think we can beat Michigan by 10. But fuck man, 18-22 year olds can do strange things. The fact that QE isn't 5 years older than my sophomore in high school still makes me shake my head in disbelief. 

How about that Penix may be closer to your age than to your high schooler's? (I mean, I just assume Penix is like 35 by now). 

[BurntEyes 6000]

Well.. my take is we fucked up "more than 10 point margin of victory"  7 teams this year. All of those had pretty shitty Ds and not great offenses. I think Kansas had the best defense of those 7 "blow out" wins by stats. (Feel free to correct me here on data) That reality leads me to believe that if if there is a team to be fucked up in the CFP, I think it's Washington. I think the others are sub 14 point games either way.

This is super scientific and fuck, Jan 1st is a long way off. 

Edited December 8, 2023 by BurntEyes

[troph 24821]

Just now, Dahobbs said:

How about that Penix may be closer to your age than to your high schooler's? (I mean, I just assume Penix is like 35 by now). 

eh, I'm pushing fiddy. but that dude is old for sure.

2 minutes ago, BurntEyes said:

Well.. my take is we fucked up "more than 10 point margin of victory"  7 teams this year. All of those had pretty shitty Ds and not great offenses. I think Kansas had the best defense if those 7 wins by stats. (Feel free to correct me here on data) That reality leads me to believe that if if there is a team to be fucked up in the CFP, I think it's Washington. I think the others are sub 14 point games either way.

This is super scientific and fuck, Jan 1st is a long way off. 

could happen for sure.

[BurntEyes 6000]

1 minute ago, troph said:

eh, I'm pushing fiddy. but that dude is old for sure.

could happen for sure.

I hope we all agree that we'd like it to happen.

[sushihorn 3233]

2 hours ago, BurntOrange&White said:

their concepts are more pro style/west coast. They do a lot of stuff similar to us with motions. 

They remind me a lot of those old Lloyd Carr Michigan teams with a superior QB and more limited running game. I’ve seen comparisons to Air Coryell and those also seem apt. Pro style offense for sure and they take more deep shots than almost anyone I’ve seen in FBS. 

[Leanderman 2275]

I see the officials are getting ready for our game

[JBJ 3655]

1 hour ago, sushihorn said:

They remind me a lot of those old Lloyd Carr Michigan teams with a superior QB and more limited running game. I’ve seen comparisons to Air Coryell and those also seem apt. Pro style offense for sure and they take more deep shots than almost anyone I’ve seen in FBS. 

yes. It's most like Air Coryell, which was the predecessor of West Coast, down to the power rush attack and heavy use of motion.   Think Norv Turner.

[Jiggy-Z 3432]

1 hour ago, JBJ said:

yes. It's most like Air Coryell, which was the predecessor of West Coast, down to the power rush attack and heavy use of motion.   Think Norv Turner.

Or Ernie Zampese.

[TexEx15 17543]

Players will respond accordingly I believe.

[Gidnik 3284]

On 12/6/2023 at 1:38 PM, NoName said:

this is the only thing to reference re: who is and isn't a blue blood

 

imagine being worse than texas a&m

[HRSchenker 2270]

I'm a Maxwell Award voter and put Penix as my number one. I did that not because I thought he deserved it (which IMO he does) but I don't want him playing with a chip on his shoulder. I remember when Vince got snubbed for the Heisman trophy and that national championship victory was a legendary fuck you to everyone. 

[ztejas 43467]

13 minutes ago, TexEx15 said:

Players will respond accordingly I believe.

[Hank_Hill 18870]

Ollie Gordon just won the Doak and I’m supposed to worry about Washingtons jag? 

[MrX 734]

Nobody really runs a true air raid anymore (Leach was the last), but Washington doesn’t even really run an air raid’s basic concepts (hurry up, quick passing game, QB free to audible, no motion, no inline TE). 

[Hank_Hill 18870]

Counterpoint: Wikipedia 

[Valmy77 13238]

5 minutes ago, Hank_Hill said:

Counterpoint: Wikipedia 

Well there is not another source that lists the base defense and offense of each team. 

[South Austin 52518]

14 hours ago, HRSchenker said:

I'm a Maxwell Award voter and put Penix as my number one. I did that not because I thought he deserved it (which IMO he does) but I don't want him playing with a chip on his shoulder. I remember when Vince got snubbed for the Heisman trophy and that national championship victory was a legendary fuck you to everyone. 

Chip on the shoulder or not, Pennix isn’t close to Vince mother-fucking Young.

[ztejas 43467]

19 minutes ago, South Austin said:

Pennix isn’t close to Vince mother-fucking Young.

For our sake I hope not. 

[troph 24821]

There’s a ton of feaux outrage by WA fans that they are the under dog not respected yada yada yada. The line is one thing but the media etc is tilted some toward Texas. I wish it wasn’t so. sark is much more comfortable as the underdog I think. 

[MisterP 127]

23 hours ago, troph said:

I watched the oSu game with my mom, she's pushing 80 and was pissed we didn't keep oSu in the teens. I looked at her and said "mom, we haven't won the conference since 2009, we haven't played in the conference title since 2018. Let's be happy, 49-21 is still an ass-kicking." She huffed, muddled "well, that's true" and went about her disgruntled way ... the Texas way.

hmmm...ok...so that makes you 50..55? Pics of mom?

[Nivek 16944]

There’s a ton of feaux outrage by WA fans that they are the under dog not respected yada yada yada. The line is one thing but the media etc is tilted some toward Texas. I wish it wasn’t so. sark is much more comfortable as the underdog I think. 

If anyone should have a chip on their shoulders its the Texas secondary. Talking heads make it seem like they are the keystone cops.