Game Week Thread Week 14, 2023, Texas v Washington, College Football Playoff Edition

[Dahobbs 17,534]

9 minutes ago, Nivek said:

If anyone should have a chip on their shoulders its the Texas secondary. Talking heads make it seem like they are the keystone cops.

Yeah, the Texas and Washington secondaries are underrated. While they are rated like 94th and 122nd in yards given up, they also have faced the 4th most and the the most passes of any team. On a passing defense efficiency basis both are similarly ranked at 33nd and 30th. Now, I think they have faced a ton of passes for different reasons. We see a ton because teams abandon the run as pointless. They see a ton I think because the teams they have played favor the pass. 

[ITHorn 801]

I can see why the WA fans act so moronic when they have coaches who post shit like this on twitter: 

 

[Tex Pete 20,354]

People’s obsession is weird. Fuck ‘em. 

[Nicole44 22,060]

I get it. We have the best hand sign and it’s not close. People just want to make our hand sign instead of creating one of their own. It’s kinda flattering in a sad way. 

[NeverMarryAStripper 21,907]

If it was Brat it would be Horns up

[El Squared 1,802]

On 12/8/2023 at 11:10 AM, utee94 said:

I think all 4 teams in the CFP deserve their spots, I think they ARE the 4 best teams in the country right now, and I think any one of them could beat any other.  That's going to make this year's CFP a lot of fun.

It'll obviously be even more fun for us, if the Horns win.  

But if not, it's still been a fantastic season, and one I'll remember fondly forever.  It's not like Texas has been just piling up the football conference championship trophies lately.  This one is special and meaningful.

Now, let's see the team go beat the shit outta U-Dub.

Agree. Don’t have high expectations but whomever said we are playing with house money a few days ago was right. Pressure is on the others, and we will be in ICY WHITES.

[NeverMarryAStripper 21,907]

7 minutes ago, El Squared said:

Agree. Don’t have high expectations but whomever said we are playing with house money a few days ago was right. Pressure is on the others, and we will be in ICY WHITES storm troopers.

 

[Hank_Hill 18,807]

Both nicknames are fucking lame. 

[Shut up Lou Holtz 2,035]

22 minutes ago, Hank_Hill said:

Both nicknames are fucking lame. 

 Not a fan of the prequels?

Edited December 10, 2023 by Shut up Lou Holtz

[Huckleberry 32,861]

For those who don't follow, the ladies joined the men as our volleyball team made the Final Four by beating Stanford in their house in a regional final tonight. Texas is in both fall Final Fours. 🤘

[ousux 5,597]

I can see why the WA fans act so moronic when they have coaches who post shit like this on twitter: 
 

Excellent! Finally something to print out and post in the locker room. That seems to work out well for our opponents this year..

[Wilcox Cummingtonite 2,948]

42 minutes ago, ousux said:

4 hours ago, ITHorn said:

I can see why the WA fans act so moronic when they have coaches who post shit like this on twitter: 
 

Excellent! Finally something to print out and post in the locker room. That seems to work out well for our opponents this year..

[Herpa Derpa 6,126]

On 12/8/2023 at 11:50 PM, Hank_Hill said:

Counterpoint: Wikipedia 

 

[Nueces River Rat 5,539]

On 12/8/2023 at 1:26 AM, SomeoneYouKnow2 said:

McDonough is a known Texas hater. It's been that way for years. I have always felt McElroy is fairly balanced, though.

No one tops Tim Brando though.  

[Ignatius 4,017]

17 hours ago, Hank_Hill said:

Both nicknames are fucking lame. 

There is nothing lame about Storm Troopers, hoodie boy…

[DanTheHorn 4,925]

18 hours ago, El Squared said:

Agree. Don’t have high expectations but whomever said we are playing with house money a few days ago was right. Pressure is on the others, and we will be in ICY WHITES.

[alphahydro 334]

I haven't watched enough Washington games to say anything useful about matchups, schemes, etc.  So I pulled some stats while I was bored. 

TL;DR - I looked at Wash's results against teams roughly as good as Texas and vice versa (based on stats I pulled over the past week while i was bored. You may or may not think these stats are relevant).

Based on the stats I pulled for Texas, UW, and each team's 2023 opponents:

• Assuming the Pac-12 and Big XII are pretty similar, the stats I pulled suggest a close Sugar Bowl with both teams scoring in the low 30s.  This is before accounting for UW/Texas matchups, schemes, injuries, turnovers, etc.
• Over the course of the season, Wash was about as good on offense and defense as Oklahoma. 
• On offense, based on the stats i pulled, Texas sits somewhere between Arizona and Oregon.    Washington didn't face a defense quite as good as Texas', but Oregon's was pretty close (statistically), followed by Arizona.
• If you insert a team about as good as Texas (based on statistical performance) into UW's schedule, you'd expect something like 32-30 UW.  If you insert a team about as good as UW into Texas' schedule, you expect something like 30-29 Texas.  I expect some of the difference is due to game pace/plays per game, but I didn't look into this.
• Again, this is all assuming the stats are useful (you may not think so) and it doesn't account for matchups, etc.  Some of Texas' stats include games where Ewers didn't play or Brooks did play.  Similar caveat for UW.  
• This is not serious or predictive.  More like a sanity check for some of the more outlandish claims and something to chew on for the next couple weeks.  I just pulled these random stats while i was bored this week, and these are my thoughts.

The Goal - to see how Washington fared this season against teams about as good as Texas and vice versa.  I'm not trying to argue anything here.  I was pulling stats to see - how did Washington fare against offenses about as good as Texas; How did Texas fare against defenses about as good as Washington's, etc.  i was just doing this out of boredom and curiosity, and i'm sharing my findings. 

Stats I pulled for each team on Tex and Wash schedules: 

1. Yards per rush
2. OFEI (opponent adjusted offensive efficiency)
3. points per play
4. passer rating
5. yards per pass
6. DFEI (opponent adjusted defensive efficiency)
7. Opponent Yards per rush
8. points per play allowed.
9. Opp pass rating
10. Opp yards per attempt allowed
11. I could have kept going, but tbh I ran out of steam. (no conspiracy, I just happened to start with these stats and got too bored to keep going)

Preface 

You can draw your own conclusion about how useful the stats are.  Was the Pac 12 roughly as strong as the Big XII this season? In pass defense, rush offense, rush defense, etc?  idk.  You can interpret the stats how you like.  For purposes of the below, I largely assume that the conferences are roughly equal.  (Only because I don't know of any good adjusted stats, and even if I did, I'm not a math guy but I wonder how good they would be with so few cross conference games between quality opponents this season.) 

Takeaway #1 - Based on the stats I pulled, Washington and OU had about the same season offensively and defensively.  Matchups/schemes/injuries aside, this would provide reason to expect a close game. 

Offensively (national ranking):

1. Yards per rush/ OFEI / points per play / pass rating / yards per pass
   1.  40th/ 6th/ 6th / 11th / 9th (UW) vs
   2.  45th / 7th / 8th / 4th / 5th (OU)

Defensively (national ranking):

1. DFEI / opponent yard per rush / opp points per play / opp pass rating / opp yards per pass att
   1.  27th/ 70th/ 27th / 23rd / 23rd (UW) vs
   2.  21st / 55th / 22nd / 12th / 27th  (OU)

Obviously, the big difference is, unlike OU, UW found a way to win the games where it shit the bed.  lol.

Takeaway # 2 - Looking at Texas' schedule, Texas scored about 30 points against defenses about as good as UW's. 

Defensively, if UW is a 27/70/27/23/23, the next best Washington comps are Iowa State (28/37/26/13/19) and Wyoming/KState (average = 41/84/39/28/28)

Against OU/Iowa State/Wyoming/KState, Texas scored 30, 26, 31, 33.  Based on these stats alone, ignoring matchups, injuries, schemes, etc., you would expect Texas to score about 30 against a defense of this caliber.  (Most of Texas' big score games came against really bad defenses).   Based on the numbers, Alabama has a significantly better defense than Wash (9/31/19/20/18).  Yes Texas scored 34 against Alabama, but Texas' offense had a very good game against Bama and won the turnover battle 2-0.  

Takeaway # 3 - Looking at Texas' schedule, it's not easy to say how many points Texas would have allowed to an offense about as good as UW's. 

OU is a good comp (again, matchups aside) for UW.  Surprisingly, so is Kansas.  If UW is a 40/6/6/11/9, Kansas is a 9/10/13/15/6.  (again these are national rankings based on unadjusted stats, with the exception of OFEI.)  I think it's hard to take too much from the Kansas' game, due to their bad defense and overall caliber of athlete.  Then you have K State (31 / 12 /19 / 52 / 67) which doesn't pass the ball as well, and Alabama (85 / 21 / 23 / 10 / 4 ), which didn't run the ball as well, based on raw, unadjusted stats.  Here, it's one thing to say that OU and K-State faced pass defenses about as good as UW did over the course of the season.  But it's hard to imagine saying that about run defenses faced when it comes to Alabama and UW.   So this is just a really clear limit of the stats I had handy.  Assuming you use OU/Bama/K-State as Washington offense comps (ignoring the Kansas result and figuring that Bama's rush is at least as good as UW's), Texas allowed just over 29 points against OU/Bama/K-State.  Again, these are just rough sanity check type thought experiments, there is a lot more to say and this isn't meant to be predictive.

I think one of the interesting takeaways here is - again, assuming the pac-12 and big xii pass defenses are pretty similar, UW didn't average a higher passer rating or yards per pass than OU or Kansas throughout the season, UW just threw the ball a lot more per game.  Run with that fact as you will. 

Takeway # 4 - UW didn't face a defense that did as well in the Pac-12 this season as Texas did against its schedule. 

Oregon was closest.  Texas 7/5/9/26/31 vs Oregon 15/18/10/17/15.  (7th adjusted defense vs Oregon's 15th) No one else on UW's schedule is really close.  Notably, Oregon has a better pass defense, at least per the unadjusted stats, though Texas' defense is better overall.  UW scored an average of 35 points vs Oregon.  UW offense also laid some eggs against Oregon State, ASU, and Wazzu.   I didn't check, but I assume they had more offensive plays/drives against Oregon.   Hard one to call.  Unclear to me why UW's points production was so uneven this season.  If UW had played more top defenses, we would have more data to look at. 

Takeway # 5 - UW didn't face a good comp to the Texas offense, even assuming Pac-12 roughly equal to Big XII.

On paper, Texas definitely doesn't have an offense as good as USC's or Oregon's.   USC put up 42.  Oregon put up 31 and 33.   No one else hit 30 in a competitive game.  Texas is a 25/15/17/17/18.  Arizona is a 36/11/21/9/23 and scored 24.  Oregon State is a 29/8/26/32/20 and scored 20.  I'd put a little less stock in these results for the same reason I don't put too much stock in Kansas offense's output against Texas.  (athletic differences + weaknesses on the other side of the ball affecting output).   So, yeah, idk.  I will say I did come away from this thinking that Texas is prolly gonna have to work for points.  

Final Caveat.

Again, these are just random musings.  I wanted to see how Texas and UW fared against other good opponents.  Turns out you basically just look at Texas/OU and UW/Oregon (lol) but I think it also helps to eliminate the games that aren't really all that informative.  And then we are left with (to some extent) Arizona, Oregon State, K-State, Bama, and Iowa State, all of which tend to suggest we should expect a close game in the low 30s, absent considerations of some huge mismatch, be it talent, athleticism, luck, turnovers, scheme, etc.  hook em. 

 

[LTtxfan 49,187]

Zach Durfee transfer Edge Rusher has been cleared to play vs Texas in the Sugar Bowl.  Rod Babers says Texas better be ready for this guy -- he's been dominating on Wash's scout team and DeBoer is fired up to be able to add him now.

 

https://sports.mynorthwest.com/1770153/huard-uw-huskies-getting-a-new-force-on-defense-for-cfp/

Quote

Huard: UW Huskies getting a new ‘force’ on defense for CFP

Dec 6th   BY BRANDON GUSTAFSON

The UW Huskies are flying high after taking down rival Oregon to clinch a spot in this year’s College Football Playoff.

On top of going 13-0 and earning a semifinal matchup with 12-1 Texas in the Sugar Bowl, the No. 2-ranked Huskies are apparently set to get a boost on defense that UW fans have not seen so far.

According to OnMontlake’s Christian Caple, a contributor for Seattle Sports, defensive end Zach Durfee, who transferred to Washington last offseason but has not played in a game yet, will be eligible to play on Jan. 1 against Texas.

Former Huskies and NFL quarterback Brock Huard broke down the situation and what it means for UW against Texas during Wednesday’s Brock and Salk on Seattle Sports.

First off, why hasn’t Durfee played in 2023?

“Well, he’s been totally hosed by the NCAA,” Huard said. “He spent a couple years at the same school (head coach Kalen DeBoer) is from, Sioux Falls down there, and has transferred. And the NCAA, like they’ve done with some of these guys for whatever reason, just did not grant him immediate eligibility. He had to sit out this regular season.”

If you follow UW players on social media, you’ve likely seen some of them post #FreeDurf at some point in the hopes of getting their teammate on the field for gameday. That’s now set to happen.

Durfee spent two years at Sioux Falls at the NAIA level, redshirting in 2021 before playing 11 games last year, where he had 11 sacks and 13.5 tackles for loss as an all-conference first-team member.

Huard got a chance to see Durfee practice in person for the Huskies earlier this year, and simply said, “This dude is good now.”

“When I was out at practice before the Oregon game (in October) … and Kalen was so gracious to me as he is with everybody that goes out and watches practice, we’re walking around and we’re looking at this and we’re looking at that, and ultimately we go and I want to kind of see the defense,” Huard said.

Huard, like many, is very familiar with the starpower the Huskies boast on offense with quarterback Michael Penix Jr. and star receivers Rome Odunze, Jalen McMillan and Ja’Lynn Polk. But Huard wanted to see young defenders to see what the future of Washington’s defense could look like. That’s when he was introduced to Durfee.

“And then (DeBoer) points this guy out to me, and he’s like, ‘This guy right here? Watch him,'” Huard. “He has had to play on the scout team. You can’t play with the ones. He’s going up against the (starters in practice). Troy Fautanu and (Roger) Rosengarten, ask those (starting offensive tackles) who this dude is. Ask them and they will tell you he’s one of the hardest guys on our team to block. He is just an absolute baller.”

Even though Durfee has yet to play for Washington, Huard expects the young edge rusher to make an immediate impact for the Huskies against Texas in a few weeks.

“This dude is gonna come in here — I am just telling you right now — as you watch the Texas game, you’re gonna watch the game and Husky fans are gonna say, ‘Who is this guy they just picked up off the street? Is this some freshmen? Is this some early enrollee? I didn’t think that happened until spring ball? Where did they get this guy?'” Huard said. “He is a powerful 260-pound explosive, explosive, explosive difference-maker.”

One of the strengths of Washington’s defense is the team’s top two edge rushers in Bralen Trice and Zion Tupuola-Fetui, and adding Durfee to the mix could give the Huskies a potent pass-rush rotation.

“He’s going to be a force in that semifinal,” Huard said of Durfee. “And Kalen DeBoer was hoping he would have been cleared seven eight or nine weeks ago, but he’s cleared it just the right time as they make their playoff push.”

 

 

[thunderlounge 7,832]

“yawn” -rocko

[nbmishoid 949]

First we’ve heard these are well matched 

[Huskyfan1997 204]

I'm a husky fan that does not wear rose colored glasses, and wanted to provide my honest husky perspective.  

ESPN has Texas at about 70% win probability vs 30% Washington.

And it's easy to see why:

•     Texas has much better talent overall
  •     Texas recruits at top 10 level every year, sometimes top 5
  •     Washington recruits at a top 25-35 level
•     Texas has way more depth
  •     Which is why UW struggled against weak teams.  They were sick and injured 
  •     If someone gets injured, Texas has 4 and 5 star players waiting in the wings, UW doesn't

Sark was easily our 2nd best recruiter this century.  Neuheisel recruited at a top 15 level.  Sark recruited at a top 15-25 level.  Chris Petersen recruited at a top 25-35 level.  We are just never going to compete for top 5 classes.   Unless Deboer wins a few national championships in a row.

Texas has a huge advantage on paper due to athletes on the team.  

The ONLY thing that Husky fans can truly pin their hopes on is this:  Under Deboer, the Huskies are 9-0 against top 25 teams.  And he's doing this with talent level outside of the top 25.  They are 3-0 vs Oregon who has top 5-10 talent.  UW really has no business beating that team.  

So Deboer and staff must be outcoaching a lot of their opponents with great gameplans and schemes.  Sark basically won 7-8 games per year with us and slightly better talent overall than what this coaching staff is working with now.  

But Sark has become a great coach since he left Washington too.  So 70-30 still seems about right to me and therefore I feel the line is about right.  Vegas thought the talent difference between Oregon and UW was worth 9.5 points.   

UO and Texas compete for the same athletes each year and are about equal in terms of talent on their rosters.  So I guess Vegas is finally giving a little respect to UW now, since they're now only 4 point underdogs haha.  

[TOR 5,579]

10 minutes ago, Huskyfan1997 said:

Sark has become a great coach since he left Washington

Sark made some serious life changes after USC fired him for being drunk on the job multiple times.  ' 7 Win Steve' was a well-earned nickname.  Saban gave him a chance to turn it around, go figure.

[Nivek 16,930]

8 minutes ago, Huskyfan1997 said:

I'm a husky fan that does not wear rose colored glasses, and wanted to provide my honest husky perspective.  

ESPN has Texas at about 70% win probability vs 30% Washington.

And it's easy to see why:

•     Texas has much better talent overall
  •     Texas recruits at top 10 level every year, sometimes top 5
  •     Washington recruits at a top 25-35 level
•     Texas has way more depth
  •     Which is why UW struggled against weak teams.  They were sick and injured 
  •     If someone gets injured, Texas has 4 and 5 star players waiting in the wings, UW doesn't

Sark was easily our 2nd best recruiter this century.  Neuheisel recruited at a top 15 level.  Sark recruited at a top 15-25 level.  Chris Petersen recruited at a top 25-35 level.  We are just never going to compete for top 5 classes.   Unless Deboer wins a few national championships in a row.

Texas has a huge advantage on paper due to athletes on the team.  

The ONLY thing that Husky fans can truly pin their hopes on is this:  Under Deboer, the Huskies are 9-0 against top 25 teams.  And he's doing this with talent level outside of the top 25.  They are 3-0 vs Oregon who has top 5-10 talent.  UW really has no business beating that team.  

So Deboer and staff must be outcoaching a lot of their opponents with great gameplans and schemes.  Sark basically won 7-8 games per year with us and slightly better talent overall than what this coaching staff is working with now.  

But Sark has become a great coach since he left Washington too.  So 70-30 still seems about right to me and therefore I feel the line is about right.  Vegas thought the talent difference between Oregon and UW was worth 9.5 points.   

UO and Texas compete for the same athletes each year and are about equal in terms of talent on their rosters.  So I guess Vegas is finally giving a little respect to UW now, since they're now only 4 point underdogs haha.  

I am going to try to be nice.  But this is stupid.  Talent is so often overrated by fans and opposing fans.  It is talked about so that people can pretend to "do more with less" and puff up their school's coaching staff.    If you are putting guys in the league, you have a talented roster.  If you are not, you don't. 

[Valmy77 13,226]

33 minutes ago, Huskyfan1997 said:

Texas has a huge advantage on paper due to athletes on the team.  

If we have a huge advantage on paper due to athletes then why did your guys win last year? Why was your athlete in New York for the Heisman and not ours? Washington has gone 24-2 in the past two seasons without elite athletes? I find this notion very unlikely.

Seems like this is not a particularly big advantage for us to me.

Edited December 11, 2023 by Valmy77

[Huskyfan1997 204]

Well, the point was that you guys have 4 and 5 star players subbing in for injuries, which seems like a pretty decisive advantage.  And it showed in UW's games when they had players out or sick.  That was the whole point of the post.  

Great coaching and schemes can make NFL draft picks.  Doesn't equal NFL talent though.  Look at John Ross and Jake Locker.  Both top 10 picks but did absolutely nothing in the NFL.  Not sure why you guys are always so confrontational to people trying to add some insight.  

But yes, players can be developed to be better than their star ratings, which is all subjective anyway.  NFL talent is directly correlated to the play style system fits.   I was just saying raw athlete talent seems to be decidedly in your favor, which is especially important in injury and depth situations.  

[ztejas 43,449]

19 hours ago, alphahydro said:

I haven't watched enough Washington games to say anything useful about matchups, schemes, etc.  So I pulled some stats while I was bored. 

TL;DR - I looked at Wash's results against teams roughly as good as Texas and vice versa (based on stats I pulled over the past week while i was bored. You may or may not think these stats are relevant).

Based on the stats I pulled for Texas, UW, and each team's 2023 opponents:

• Assuming the Pac-12 and Big XII are pretty similar, the stats I pulled suggest a close Sugar Bowl with both teams scoring in the low 30s.  This is before accounting for UW/Texas matchups, schemes, injuries, turnovers, etc.
• Over the course of the season, Wash was about as good on offense and defense as Oklahoma. 
• On offense, based on the stats i pulled, Texas sits somewhere between Arizona and Oregon.    Washington didn't face a defense quite as good as Texas', but Oregon's was pretty close (statistically), followed by Arizona.
• If you insert a team about as good as Texas (based on statistical performance) into UW's schedule, you'd expect something like 32-30 UW.  If you insert a team about as good as UW into Texas' schedule, you expect something like 30-29 Texas.  I expect some of the difference is due to game pace/plays per game, but I didn't look into this.
• Again, this is all assuming the stats are useful (you may not think so) and it doesn't account for matchups, etc.  Some of Texas' stats include games where Ewers didn't play or Brooks did play.  Similar caveat for UW.  
• This is not serious or predictive.  More like a sanity check for some of the more outlandish claims and something to chew on for the next couple weeks.  I just pulled these random stats while i was bored this week, and these are my thoughts.

The Goal - to see how Washington fared this season against teams about as good as Texas and vice versa.  I'm not trying to argue anything here.  I was pulling stats to see - how did Washington fare against offenses about as good as Texas; How did Texas fare against defenses about as good as Washington's, etc.  i was just doing this out of boredom and curiosity, and i'm sharing my findings. 

Stats I pulled for each team on Tex and Wash schedules: 

1. Yards per rush
2. OFEI (opponent adjusted offensive efficiency)
3. points per play
4. passer rating
5. yards per pass
6. DFEI (opponent adjusted defensive efficiency)
7. Opponent Yards per rush
8. points per play allowed.
9. Opp pass rating
10. Opp yards per attempt allowed
11. I could have kept going, but tbh I ran out of steam. (no conspiracy, I just happened to start with these stats and got too bored to keep going)

Preface 

You can draw your own conclusion about how useful the stats are.  Was the Pac 12 roughly as strong as the Big XII this season? In pass defense, rush offense, rush defense, etc?  idk.  You can interpret the stats how you like.  For purposes of the below, I largely assume that the conferences are roughly equal.  (Only because I don't know of any good adjusted stats, and even if I did, I'm not a math guy but I wonder how good they would be with so few cross conference games between quality opponents this season.) 

Takeaway #1 - Based on the stats I pulled, Washington and OU had about the same season offensively and defensively.  Matchups/schemes/injuries aside, this would provide reason to expect a close game. 

Offensively (national ranking):

1. Yards per rush/ OFEI / points per play / pass rating / yards per pass
   1.  40th/ 6th/ 6th / 11th / 9th (UW) vs
   2.  45th / 7th / 8th / 4th / 5th (OU)

Defensively (national ranking):

1. DFEI / opponent yard per rush / opp points per play / opp pass rating / opp yards per pass att
   1.  27th/ 70th/ 27th / 23rd / 23rd (UW) vs
   2.  21st / 55th / 22nd / 12th / 27th  (OU)

Obviously, the big difference is, unlike OU, UW found a way to win the games where it shit the bed.  lol.

Takeaway # 2 - Looking at Texas' schedule, Texas scored about 30 points against defenses about as good as UW's. 

Defensively, if UW is a 27/70/27/23/23, the next best Washington comps are Iowa State (28/37/26/13/19) and Wyoming/KState (average = 41/84/39/28/28)

Against OU/Iowa State/Wyoming/KState, Texas scored 30, 26, 31, 33.  Based on these stats alone, ignoring matchups, injuries, schemes, etc., you would expect Texas to score about 30 against a defense of this caliber.  (Most of Texas' big score games came against really bad defenses).   Based on the numbers, Alabama has a significantly better defense than Wash (9/31/19/20/18).  Yes Texas scored 34 against Alabama, but Texas' offense had a very good game against Bama and won the turnover battle 2-0.  

Takeaway # 3 - Looking at Texas' schedule, it's not easy to say how many points Texas would have allowed to an offense about as good as UW's. 

OU is a good comp (again, matchups aside) for UW.  Surprisingly, so is Kansas.  If UW is a 40/6/6/11/9, Kansas is a 9/10/13/15/6.  (again these are national rankings based on unadjusted stats, with the exception of OFEI.)  I think it's hard to take too much from the Kansas' game, due to their bad defense and overall caliber of athlete.  Then you have K State (31 / 12 /19 / 52 / 67) which doesn't pass the ball as well, and Alabama (85 / 21 / 23 / 10 / 4 ), which didn't run the ball as well, based on raw, unadjusted stats.  Here, it's one thing to say that OU and K-State faced pass defenses about as good as UW did over the course of the season.  But it's hard to imagine saying that about run defenses faced when it comes to Alabama and UW.   So this is just a really clear limit of the stats I had handy.  Assuming you use OU/Bama/K-State as Washington offense comps (ignoring the Kansas result and figuring that Bama's rush is at least as good as UW's), Texas allowed just over 29 points against OU/Bama/K-State.  Again, these are just rough sanity check type thought experiments, there is a lot more to say and this isn't meant to be predictive.

I think one of the interesting takeaways here is - again, assuming the pac-12 and big xii pass defenses are pretty similar, UW didn't average a higher passer rating or yards per pass than OU or Kansas throughout the season, UW just threw the ball a lot more per game.  Run with that fact as you will. 

Takeway # 4 - UW didn't face a defense that did as well in the Pac-12 this season as Texas did against its schedule. 

Oregon was closest.  Texas 7/5/9/26/31 vs Oregon 15/18/10/17/15.  (7th adjusted defense vs Oregon's 15th) No one else on UW's schedule is really close.  Notably, Oregon has a better pass defense, at least per the unadjusted stats, though Texas' defense is better overall.  UW scored an average of 35 points vs Oregon.  UW offense also laid some eggs against Oregon State, ASU, and Wazzu.   I didn't check, but I assume they had more offensive plays/drives against Oregon.   Hard one to call.  Unclear to me why UW's points production was so uneven this season.  If UW had played more top defenses, we would have more data to look at. 

Takeway # 5 - UW didn't face a good comp to the Texas offense, even assuming Pac-12 roughly equal to Big XII.

On paper, Texas definitely doesn't have an offense as good as USC's or Oregon's.   USC put up 42.  Oregon put up 31 and 33.   No one else hit 30 in a competitive game.  Texas is a 25/15/17/17/18.  Arizona is a 36/11/21/9/23 and scored 24.  Oregon State is a 29/8/26/32/20 and scored 20.  I'd put a little less stock in these results for the same reason I don't put too much stock in Kansas offense's output against Texas.  (athletic differences + weaknesses on the other side of the ball affecting output).   So, yeah, idk.  I will say I did come away from this thinking that Texas is prolly gonna have to work for points.  

Final Caveat.

Again, these are just random musings.  I wanted to see how Texas and UW fared against other good opponents.  Turns out you basically just look at Texas/OU and UW/Oregon (lol) but I think it also helps to eliminate the games that aren't really all that informative.  And then we are left with (to some extent) Arizona, Oregon State, K-State, Bama, and Iowa State, all of which tend to suggest we should expect a close game in the low 30s, absent considerations of some huge mismatch, be it talent, athleticism, luck, turnovers, scheme, etc.  hook em. 

 

You're comparing UW to OU, which makes sense. I will point out, however, that Texas beat a team better than OU by 10 points on the road, and beat a team by 28 points at a neutral site that beat OU at home.

Texas did not play particularly well against OU, and Gabriel and Penix both present matchup issues for this Texas D, but I think UW will be hard pressed to beat the best version of this Texas team.

We'll see which version of Texas we get on NYD.

Edited December 11, 2023 by ztejas

[Valmy77 13,226]

2 minutes ago, Huskyfan1997 said:

Well, the point was that you guys have 4 and 5 star players subbing in for injuries, which seems like a pretty decisive advantage.

Sure. Over the course of a season that might be an advantage. But we are both getting a month off to rest. I don't think depth is going to be a big issue.

Besides our best player, T'Vondre Sweat was a three star player (that may, or may not, have been recruited by Alabama...but still)

And our last Sugar Bowl team's best player was Lil'Jordan Humphrey who was also a three star player (that may, or may not, have also been recruited by Washington...but still)

Sure four and five stars over the vast data set of all of college football have much better results but that is with a huge sample size. We are talking about your team vs. ours and a small sample size of one game. Great college football players are great college football players, regardless of how much hype they got as high school prospects.

But, to be fair, I am a little jaded by the whole thing of hyped recruits and then not seeing them actually be able to play once they get here. I am sure fans of other schools that tend to recruit better than they play, like Tennessee, feel similarly.

[Huskyfan1997 204]

Put simply, if Ewers gets injured in the game, many of your fans may be excited to see your one of your 5 star backup QB's play.  

If Penix goes down, well, let's just say no UW fan is excited to see our backups play haha.  Same goes for many other positions.  

Anyway, I never post on opposing team message boards, but thought I would here.  Mad respect for what your team did to Alabama and I'm truly happy for Sark.  Willingham literally almost killed our program and Sark gave us hope and life so will forever be grateful to him.  I can completely understand why he left for USC.  Way easier to recruit to that school than to rainy Seattle.

I hope UW plays like they did against UO so the game is at least exciting and close.  

[Red Five 40,858]

1 minute ago, Huskyfan1997 said:

Put simply, if Ewers gets injured in the game, many of your fans may be excited to see your one of your 5 star backup QB's play.  

Yeah we got 2.5 games of that. No one will be excited to see that happen. 

[Stanley 42]

3 minutes ago, Huskyfan1997 said:

Put simply, if Ewers gets injured in the game, many of your fans may be excited to see your one of your 5 star backup QB's play.  

If Penix goes down, well, let's just say no UW fan is excited to see our backups play haha.  Same goes for many other positions.  

Anyway, I never post on opposing team message boards, but thought I would here.  Mad respect for what your team did to Alabama and I'm truly happy for Sark.  Willingham literally almost killed our program and Sark gave us hope and life so will forever be grateful to him.  I can completely understand why he left for USC.  Way easier to recruit to that school than to rainy Seattle.

I hope UW plays like they did against UO so the game is at least exciting and close.  

[Valmy77 13,226]

5 minutes ago, Huskyfan1997 said:

Put simply, if Ewers gets injured in the game, many of your fans may be excited to see your one of your 5 star backup QB's play.  

Believe me I will not be excited if Maalik Murphy has to enter the game unless it is because we are ahead by 30. I appreciate his filling in at QB to keep the season alive and all but...

Quote

Anyway, I never post on opposing team message boards, but thought I would here.  Mad respect for what your team did to Alabama and I'm truly happy for Sark.  Willingham literally almost killed our program and Sark gave us hope and life so will forever be grateful to him.  I can completely understand why he left for USC.  Way easier to recruit to that school than to rainy Seattle.

Thank you. You seem very cool and I hope we can talk more about the game in the next couple weeks.

Edited December 11, 2023 by Valmy77

[Tex Pete 20,354]

1 hour ago, Huskyfan1997 said:

I'm a husky fan that does not wear rose colored glasses, and wanted to provide my honest husky perspective. 

You should see a dietician and maybe a personal trainer to help you get down to normal size. Life's too short to make it shorter with poor eating habits and overall health issues.

[utee94 15,823]

[Herbie Hancock 7,348]

If QE goes out, Murphy ain't coming in.

[TOR 5,579]

29 minutes ago, Red Five said:

Yeah we got 2.5 games of that. No one will be excited to see that happen. 

 

[Nivek 16,930]

31 minutes ago, Huskyfan1997 said:

Well, the point was that you guys have 4 and 5 star players subbing in for injuries, which seems like a pretty decisive advantage.  And it showed in UW's games when they had players out or sick.  That was the whole point of the post.  

Great coaching and schemes can make NFL draft picks.  Doesn't equal NFL talent though.  Look at John Ross and Jake Locker.  Both top 10 picks but did absolutely nothing in the NFL.  Not sure why you guys are always so confrontational to people trying to add some insight.  

But yes, players can be developed to be better than their star ratings, which is all subjective anyway.  NFL talent is directly correlated to the play style system fits.   I was just saying raw athlete talent seems to be decidedly in your favor, which is especially important in injury and depth situations.  

The point wasn't to be an asshole, but to stop the hype discussion.  When ISU beat us and then made a quip about 5-star culture, they were doing so with overlooked recruits who were future NFL talents.  While we had some guys who were good, but others who just couldn't perform.  Josh Allen played for Wyoming while we were drafting Jerrod Heard and then Shane Buechele.    Heard was a 4 star, IIRC.  Allen had to beg to get to Wyoming.   

Rick Neuheisels once stated something like : It is not the recruit that you miss on that hurts you, it is the recruit that you get that cannot perform to the level of expectations that hurts you.   We have had a whole lot of both.  

 

 

[ATXhorn17 1,617]

4 minutes ago, Herbie Hancock said:

If QE goes out, Murphy ain't coming in.

I certainly hope that's the case... Sark didn't have an issue playing Murphy during the Big 12 championship... I have way more faith in Arch's ability to avoid pressure and turnovers.

[Huckleberry 32,861]

Please realize that when you claim that one team is definitively more talented than another because of recruiting rankings, you are outsourcing your analysis to internet high school recruiting $9.95 "experts." Some of those guys are good at evaluating talent. Most of them are terrible. 

Yes in the long run you want the higher rated prospects, but if you have a staff recruiting players only because they're higher rated you will end up a shitty team (hi Jimbo!).

[Red Five 40,858]

7 minutes ago, Herbie Hancock said:

If QE goes out, Murphy ain't coming in.

I've been wondering about that. Would be interesting. 

[Herbie Hancock 7,348]

I certainly hope that's the case... Sark didn't have an issue playing Murphy during the Big 12 championship... I have way more faith in Arch's ability to avoid pressure and turnovers.

How many games has Arch played in? How many games can you play in before you burn your redshirt? Now, potentially how many more games could we have left this season? Chess, not checkers my friend.

[Josef Pwag 1,738]

1 hour ago, Huskyfan1997 said:

I'm a husky fan that does not wear rose colored glasses, and wanted to provide my honest husky perspective.  

ESPN has Texas at about 70% win probability vs 30% Washington.

And it's easy to see why:

•     Texas has much better talent overall
  •     Texas recruits at top 10 level every year, sometimes top 5
  •     Washington recruits at a top 25-35 level
•     Texas has way more depth
  •     Which is why UW struggled against weak teams.  They were sick and injured 
  •     If someone gets injured, Texas has 4 and 5 star players waiting in the wings, UW doesn't

Sark was easily our 2nd best recruiter this century.  Neuheisel recruited at a top 15 level.  Sark recruited at a top 15-25 level.  Chris Petersen recruited at a top 25-35 level.  We are just never going to compete for top 5 classes.   Unless Deboer wins a few national championships in a row.

Texas has a huge advantage on paper due to athletes on the team.  

The ONLY thing that Husky fans can truly pin their hopes on is this:  Under Deboer, the Huskies are 9-0 against top 25 teams.  And he's doing this with talent level outside of the top 25.  They are 3-0 vs Oregon who has top 5-10 talent.  UW really has no business beating that team.  

So Deboer and staff must be outcoaching a lot of their opponents with great gameplans and schemes.  Sark basically won 7-8 games per year with us and slightly better talent overall than what this coaching staff is working with now.  

But Sark has become a great coach since he left Washington too.  So 70-30 still seems about right to me and therefore I feel the line is about right.  Vegas thought the talent difference between Oregon and UW was worth 9.5 points.   

UO and Texas compete for the same athletes each year and are about equal in terms of talent on their rosters.  So I guess Vegas is finally giving a little respect to UW now, since they're now only 4 point underdogs haha.  

Just about everyone on this board is stupid except for me. Also, I don't think about numbers, because I'm not a nerd. I rely on cliches, and in this area, your protracted post is lacking, so I won't be able to properly respond. I will pray about your post and get back to you in the next 48 - 72 hours. In the meantime, please list out the top steakhouses & sports bars in the Puget Sound area. 

[Tex Pete 20,354]

17 minutes ago, Nivek said:

Rick Neuheisels once stated something like : It is not the recruit that you miss on that hurts you, it is the recruit that you get that cannot perform to the level of expectations that hurts you.   We have had a whole lot of both. 

I have commented on the board before that after Mack put his feet on his desk in 2006, he basically "recruited" by taking the word of $9.95ers on the talent of recruits. I spoke with Manny Diaz several times as he was recruiting a player in my hometown. I pointed out another player who would have been an improvement at Texas and he agreed with me and said that he had told Mack about the kid and wanted Mack to at least take a look at him, but that Mack had settled on his guy, a player from a big name HS that ultimately was mediocre here. The other kid went to a smaller school and was all-conference as a freshman.

One of Manny's fellow assistant coaches remarked that he had gotten film of several players to Mack so Mack could evaluate them, but Mack would never watch the film. And he would not let his assistants make offers to players he had not watched film on and approved of. So, Mack was fucking his own program by being lazy, while at the same time telling $200 donors to pay their money and shut the fuck up. Fat, stupid motherfucker.

[Crapinon 2,257]

16 minutes ago, Herbie Hancock said:

How many games has Arch played in? How many games can you play in before you burn your redshirt? Now, potentially how many more games could we have left this season? Chess, not checkers my friend.

I believe it has been covered. He can play in 4 games. He's played in 2. And if Quinn goes down and Arch leads Texas to the CFB championship, Quinn might as well go pro because Arch would be number one next year. 

[Huskyfan1997 204]

Personally, my favorite steakhouse is called John Howie in Bellevue. 

But in general I agree with y'all about talent evaluation.  I'm a Seahawks fan and that Legion of Boom defense had only 1 1st rounder, Earl Thomas I believe.  

But that defense stifled supposedly the greatest offense (statistically speaking) in the history of the NFL in the Super Bowl.  

I am a believer in defense winning championships, so I'm a bit skeptical my huskies can pull this off.  One can hope though.  

[Tex Pete 20,354]

1 minute ago, Huskyfan1997 said:

I am a believer in defense winning championships, so I'm a bit skeptical my huskies can pull this off.  One can hope though.  

Of course y'all can. We are fairly evenly matched and a lot of things can happen before and during the game.

[Magus Ossis 2,800]

Most analyses of the game seem to agree on a few key points:

1. Texas on offense versus Washington on defense is relative strength on relative weakness, and Texas should score in the 30s. The hope is that this will be the difference in the game. Vegas seems to think it will be, with the good guys favored by single digits.

2. Washington running is unlikely to be how Texas loses, if we do.

3. Washington passing is dangerous, and our lack of combined athleticism and recognition in our safeties puts us at particular risk. Some worry that this will actually be the difference in the game.

Washington will have more help at edge rusher than they had previously, so their defense may fare a bit above expectation. We are out one key man at safety for half the game, and that doesn't help. I have not seen much analysis of Oregon's secondary. If someone knows of a good one, I would be interested to see it. The 2 games against Oregon, to me, are the best sense we are likely to get of how good Washington is against a meaningful opponent in a game that matters, so I am curious how our secondary stacks up against Oregon's. My overall impression is that this game will follow the bounce of the ball. Assuming it does not bounce badly, Texas should win. When we put all three phases together, we have not just been winning; we have been dominating.

[Huskyfan1997 204]

Listening to Oregon fans, statistically speaking, UO is the greatest team in the history of the earth on both offense and defense, haha. 

I think UO fans said they were top 5 in the country in both offense and defense before that game.  #2 or #3 rushing defense.  I don't know but I do know that we pretty much ran over them.  Not sure how much of that was scheme.  One thing about UW is they set everyone in motion pre-snap to force defenses to show how they're defending that play.  

One thing is for sure, if UW ends up winning the championship, UO will claim they had the 2nd best team in the nation haha.  We hate UO as much as you guys hate the Aggies. 

[Bill Lumbergh 7,171]

23 minutes ago, Huskyfan1997 said:

Personally, my favorite steakhouse is called John Howie in Bellevue. 

But in general I agree with y'all about talent evaluation.  I'm a Seahawks fan and that Legion of Boom defense had only 1 1st rounder, Earl Thomas I believe.  

But that defense stifled supposedly the greatest offense (statistically speaking) in the history of the NFL in the Super Bowl.  

I am a believer in defense winning championships, so I'm a bit skeptical my huskies can pull this off.  One can hope though.  

I like you so far but you're wrong on the steakhouse.

Original Seattle El Gaucho is where that discussion starts and ends, IMO.

[Bill Lumbergh 7,171]

7 minutes ago, Huskyfan1997 said:

We hate UO as much as you guys hate the Aggies. 

Also, as a Texas alumn who lived in Seattle for quite a while, think about it this way:

Texas:OU = UW:UO

Texas:aggy = UW:Wazzu

Edited December 11, 2023 by Bill Lumbergh

[Huskyfan1997 204]

Ah thanks for the rivalry education.  I get it now.  

And El Gaucho ranks 2nd on my list.  John Howie, El Gaucho, The Metropolitan Grill, Ascend, Daniel's Broiler are my personal top 5.  I'm talking pure steak review.  Overall review, I don't know.  I don't eat vegetables and don't care about ambiance.